Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

Global markets experienced a downturn this week due to conflicting economic Gsignals. The US economy grew at a sluggish 1.6% in the first quarter, the slowest in almost two years, while inflation remained stubbornly high at 3.4%. This, coupled with disappointing results from tech giant Meta, triggered a sell-off in large-cap stocks. However, there were brighter spots elsewhere. The Eurozone saw a surprising surge in overall business activity, driven by a rebounding service sector. German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe's largest economy is exiting two years of struggles. China's economy grew stronger than expected at the start of this year, mainly thanks to robust growth in high-tech manufacturing. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistic. Meanwhile, Japan's inflation rate dipped below 2%, but this might be temporary due to recent policy changes. The BOJ kept interest rates around zero, as expected, while removing a reference to the amount of government bonds it has roughly committed to buying each month. The central bank also issued fresh estimates projecting inflation to stay near its 2% target in the next three years, signaling its readiness to raise borrowing costs this year. This mixed bag of economic data has created uncertainty, leading to volatility in the global markets.

Back home, Domestic markets witnessed volatile movements tracking global cues. Kotak Mahindra Bank suffered a sharp decline after the central bank prohibited them from digitally onboarding new clients. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) fund outflows remain a concern. However, India's strong growth prospects and hopes of a ruling party majority in the upcoming elections are attracting a lot of domestic investors to equities. Conversely, rising US 10-year bond yields above 4.7% are expected to continue driving FII selling. Market volatility is likely to continue in the near term. Markets will continue take direction from the domestic as well as the global factors.

On the commodity market front, last week in the commodity market, the CRB index faced resistance around 346, resulting in a slight dip. Following a strong five-week rally, gold prices retreated due to profit booking, while silver briefly slipped below $27 before ending the week above that mark. On the MCX, gold hit a low of 70202, and silver slipped below 80000 briefly. Gold and silver can now trade in consolidation; between the range of 68500-72000 and 78000-83500 respectively. Natural gas prices faced resistance near $1.82 after a prolonged consolidation period. Crude oil prices, which halted near $88 a few weeks back, saw further decline initially, but rebounded following a drop in US crude oil inventory. Crude oil counter has mix triggers and it can trade in slim spread of 6750-7200 levels. Among base metals, copper continued its impressive rally for the fifth consecutive week. Copper can see further higher side; upto 855. MCX has launched Natural gas Mini contract and crude oil mini contract. With high volatility; both contract received good participation in trading activities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • According to flash survey data from S&P Global, India's private sector activity expanded at the quickest pace in nearly fourteen years, boosted by positive demand trends across the manufacturing and services sectors. The flash HSBC composite output index rose to 62.2 in April from 61.8 in March. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Information Technology
  • TCS entered a strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services to accelerate its customers' cloud transformation journey at scale.
  • KPIT Technologies completed the acquisition of PathPartner Technology for Rs 191 crore.
Power
  • NTPC's arm, NTPC Green Energy, signs a pact with Indus Towers to create a joint venture for green energy objectives. The company and Indus Tower JV will explore renewable energy projects. The company plans to have 60 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2032.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories launched the condition management programme DailyBloom IBS, India's first integrated care plan for irritable bowel syndrome.
Cement
  • UltraTech Cement has announced the acquisition of a grinding unit from India Cements. The unit, having an installed capacity of 1.1 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) and a captive railway siding, is situated in Parli, Maharashtra. The acquisition, valued at Rs. 315 crore, was finalized through an Asset Purchase Agreement between UltraTech Cement and India Cements.
  • Ambuja Cement completed the acquisition of a 1.5 MTPA grinding unit in Tamil Nadu.
Aviation
  • Interglobe Aviation has ordered 30 Airbus A350-900 aircraft, and the company has thepurchaserights foranadditional70AirbusA350Familyaircraft.
Engineering
  • RITES entered into an MOU with Ultratech Cement for project management consultancy services for Rail Infra projects.
Construction
  • Rail Vikas Nigam emerged as the lowest bidder for a railway project worth Rs 239 crore.
Shipping
  • SEAMEC entered into an MoU with Zamil Offshore Services Company for an extension of the charter hire of vessel “SEAMEC SWORDFISH” for a further period of 30 days, with effect from April 24, 2024.
Capital Goods
  • HPL Electric and Power launched a new product, HPL Fans, in SAARC countries, the Middle East and African countries.
  • Inox Wind has secured an order to supply 210 MW of its wind turbines for a project in South India. The order was placed Indian independent power producer Hero Future Energies (HFE).
Auto Ancillaries
  • Sona BLW Precision Forgings inaugurated its new manufacturing plant in the Fipasi Industrial Park, Silao, Mexico. This strategic expansion aims to cater to the growing demand for high-quality driveline solutions for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in North America.

PIVOT SHEET

CORPORATE ACTION

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • US pending home sales index spiked by 3.4 percent to 78.2 in March after jumping by 1.6 percent to 75.6 in February. Economists had expected pending home sales to rise by just 0.3 percent.
  • US gross domestic product increased by 1.6 percent in the first quarter after surging by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Economists had expected GDP to jump by 2.5 percent.
  • US initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 214,000.
  • US durable goods orders soared by 2.6 percent in March after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in February. Economists had expected durable goods orders to spike by 2.3 percent compared to the 1.3 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
  • Japan's leading index improved to the highest level in one-and-a-half years as initially estimated in February. The leading index, which measures future economic activity, rose to 111.8 in February from 109.5 in the previous month. That was in line with the flash data published on April 5.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

APL APOLLO TUBES LIMITED

CMP: 1543.00

Target Price: 1935

Upside: 25%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1806.20/1046.55
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 42822.04
  • EPS (Rs.) 27.52
  • P/E Ratio (times) 56.07
  • P/B Ratio (times) 13.05
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.32
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • APL Apollo Tubes Limited operates 12 Manufacturing facilities with a total capacity of 3.8 million tons. Units are strategically located in Sikandarabad (UP), Hyderabad, Bangalore, Hosur (Tamil Nadu), Raipur (Chhattisgarh), Dujana (UP), Malur (Karnataka), Murbad (Maharashrtra) and Umm AI Quwain (UAE). Its multi-product offerings include over 2,500 varieties for multiple building material structural steel applications.
  • The Company target sales volume of 5-million ton by FY2026. In this direction it is currently setting up 4-million-ton capacity and in next 1 year it will be ready with the 1-million-ton incremental capacity.
  • The company is focusing on new product launches, in this direction its Raipur plant (capacity - 300,000 tons) has helped the company to launch four separate products successfully and the plant is operating at 50% utilization. Its heavy structural segment has reached 50% utilization, super light tubes launched with with thickness of up to 0.18 millimeter and as narrow as 8-millimeter by 8- millimeter has reached utilization of 30%, its roofing sheets segment has reached 70% utilization and thicker coated sheet segment is operating at 12% utilization. The company expects, these utilization levels will go up pretty solid in the coming months.
  • It is also focusing on ramping up international sales which offers around 30 million tons, 40 million tons of annual sales volume. In this direction it has started plant in Dubai (current capacity -100000 tons which will increase to 300000 tons) and set up a full-fledged team in Dubai. During the first nine months of FY24, export sales grew by 60% YoY and with Dubai plant commissioning this will improve further.
  • According to the business update, company registered a sales volume of 6,78,556 Ton in Q4FY24 which is the highest quarterly sales volume reported by the company. For FY24, the company reported sales volume of 26,18,477 Ton, an increase of 15% YoY. This was supported by the newly commissioned New Raipur and Dubai plants. The management expects, the expansion of construction led demand in the country post general elections to further boost APL Apollo's sales volume.

Risk

  • Increase Commodity Price
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

The company is focusing on increasing its sales volume to 5 million tons by FY26 through new product launches and increasing export sales. Its Raiput and Dubai plants would drive future growth of the company. The increased contribution of value-added segment from 56% in FY23 to 58% in FY24, auger well for the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1935 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on target P/BV of 12x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.161.22.

RADICO KHAITAN LIMITED

CMP: 1731.85

Target Price: 2152

Upside: 24%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1882.05/1081.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 23157.49
  • EPS (Rs.) 18.76
  • P/E Ratio (times) 92.32
  • P/B Ratio (times) 10.04
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.17
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • Radico Khaitan is amoung the oldest and one of the largest manufacturers of Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) in India. It is one of the few companies in India to have developed its entire brand portfolio organically.
  • During Q3FY24, Total Indian made Foreign Liqour (IMFL) volume increased 3.7% whereas Prestige & above category volume grew 20.2%. Prestige & above net revenue growth was 29.1% compared to Q3 FY23. The management of the company projects a 15-18% increase in P&A brand sales volume in the near future. Moreover, the white spirit (vodka & gin) segment is growing faster than the industry, so the company is concentrating on this rising consumption trend. In the domestic gin category, Jaisalmer gin holds a 55% market share, whileRadicoKhaitancommandsamarket shareofover 60%in the vodka category. In the upcoming years,the recent introduction of Happiness Gin and Pink Vodka would gradually increaseP&Avolumesduetoits strongreception.
  • Gross margin during the quater reduced to 41.8% compared to 41.3% in Q3 FY23, mainly impacted due to significant foodgrain inflation. Despite commodity inflation in the ENA and grain prices, the firm said that it has been able to sustain gross margins due to the ongoing premiumization and the price increases in the IMFL business. Although, prices of certain packaging materials have softened recently, the company stated that it is cautiously monitoring the trends of Grain, ENA and glass bottles where volatility persists.
  • The management of the company stated that its strategy is to continue to make prudent marketing investments over existing core brands and new launches to sustain the growth and market share. During Q3 FY24, A&SP (Advertisement & Sales Promotions) was 6% of IMFL (Indian Made Foreign Liquor) sales compared to 5.3% in Q2 FY23. On a quarterly basis, the amount may vary but the breweries maker said it expects to maintain A&SP spend around 6% to 8% of its IMFL revenues to be able to drive the sales momentum.
  • Net debt stood at Rs. 669.5 crore as on December 2023. The net debt decreased by Rs 101.9 crore, sequentially supported by strong financial discipline and working capital management.

Risk

  • Regulatory risk
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

The company is doing well and according to the management of the company, it has delivered another quarter of resilient performance with strong business fundamentals amidst a challenging operating environment. While the demand for the regular category brands was muted, premium brands growth remained robust. With positive macro indicators, continued government spending and a favorable consumer sentiment, the company believes that the consumption should see an uptrend in the future. Moreover, the management of the company is confident of the mid to long term potential of Indian Alcobev sector and Radico Khaitan remains well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity whilst steering the short-term challenges. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2152 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on target P/BV of 10.10x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.213.02.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED (CONCOR)

The stock closed at Rs.1068 on 26th April, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.599 on 26th April, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.1079 on 26th April 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 831.

The stock has been on a bullish streak for the past one year, and experienced a substantial rally from 650 to 1000 levels over the period of months. However, recent profit-taking activity has caused the stock to retrace back towards the 850 level, finding support at its 200- day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe. Last week, once again, bullish momentum seems to be resurfacing, as the stock has given a fresh breakout above a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly timeframe and also marked its 52 week high. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1050-1070 levels for the upside target of 1220-1230 levels with SL below 935 levels.

GUJARAT NARMADA VALLEY FERTILIZERS AND CHEMICALS LIMITED (GNFC)

The stock closed at Rs.719.45 on 26th April, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.532 on 14th August, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.814.90 on 04th January 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 663.

After reaching its 52-week high of 814.0 in January 2024, the stock experienced a phase of profit booking, and seen retracing below its 200-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe. However, in recent weeks, once again buying interest at lower levels has reemerged, propelling the stock to move back above its 200-day exponential moving average. Currently, the stock has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the technical front and has broken out above the neckline of the pattern formation as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 715-720 levels for the upside target of 800-820 levels with SL below 650 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Nifty and Banknifty are currently consolidating near their record highs, with both indices registering weekly gains of over 1%. Last week, PSU banks, real estate and small-cap stocks stood out as top performers, while IT, financial services, and private banks were laggard. Analysing Nifty's derivative data highest call writing is seen at the 22,500 and 22,600 strikes. Conversely, put writers displayed activity, particularly at the 22,500 and 22,000 strikes. In Banknifty, the highest call open interest was observed at the 48,500 and 49,000 strikes, while on the put side, it was concentrated at the 48,000 and 47,000 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 11.60%, while put options concluded at 12.29%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 10.73%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.37 for the week. The rollover rate for Banknifty in the May series shows a decline compared to the previous series, dropping from 87.21% to 74.41%. Similarly, Nifty's rollover rate decreases to 65.12%, below both the previous month's rate and the three-month average of 76.79%. This suggests that the market is in a state of anticipation, with traders hesitant to carry positions into the current month (May Series). Consequently, we anticipate sluggish movements in both indices until a trigger emerges. The market's trend will be determined by how positions are formed throughout the month. In the upcoming week, Nifty may test upside resistance at 22600 whereas on downside support is placed at 22200.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 25.04.2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices extended its gains further on increased buying interest as open interest surged sharply with significant gains. Lingering concerns over bleak supply prospects backed by lower production helped prices to move to the record high level of 20174. However, some profit booking was seen in second half of week but prices remained higher by more than 5% on weekly basis. Arrival pace was noted slower as compared to last year due to lower production in year 2024. Production is likely to be dropped by about 16% Y-o-Y due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield and may stand at 9.7 lakh tonnes. Supplies of turmeric are expected to improve in coming weeks as harvesting activities have completed on positive note. Reports of sluggish exports will also lead to profit booking in this counter. Turmeric exports dropped again Y-o-Y for 8th consecutive month in Feb'24 with reduced buying by Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arab. Total turmeric export during Apr'23-Feb'24 reported at 155.58 K tonnes down by 9% Y-o-Y. Turmeric prices are expected to trade in range of 18100-20400.

Dhaniya posted moderate gains on weekly basis as expectation of rise in supplies of new arrivals erased most of the gains by end of the week. However, arrivals have been lower as compared to last year as about 38.7 thousand tonnes arrived so far in Apr'24 as compared to 92.8 thousand tonnes of previous year. Physical demand improved in wake of weaker production outlook. Robust export demand also helped prices to trade on positive bias. Dhaniya export rose 35% Yo-Y in Feb'24 to 4.6 thousand tonnes as per recent government official release. Overall export of dhaniya reached to 71.18 thousand tonnes during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24. Firmness in dhaniya is likely to remain intact due to bleak supply outlook as production is likely to be down about 10-15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7200-8400.

Jeera futures traded higher on weekly basis where gains were largely attributed by active buying by stockists and millers. Spot prices in Unjha market showed uptrend with rising export demand and impact of the same was seen on the futures prices. Gains are likely to be limited as bumper production prospects and commencement of new crop will cap the gains. Harvesting activities are in last stage in Gujarat and Rajasthan that will lead to rise in supplies. Exports of jeera dropped in Feb'24 due to lower availability and tighter stocks in domestic market India exported 10.96 thousand tonnes of jeera in Feb'24 as compared to 11.36 thousand tonnes previous year down by 3.4% Y-o-Y. Jeera export from India has been reported down by 23.7% Y-o-Y during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 20500-30000.

BULLIONS

Gold prices experienced their first weekly decline in six weeks, signalling a shift in sentiment amid reduced fears of a significant escalation in the Middle East crisis. From its peak at $2,431.29 on April 12, prices dropped nearly $100. Currently, prices have stabilized, remaining sensitive to expectations surrounding potential rate cuts. Recent U.S. economic data releases presented a mixed picture, complicating the outlook. While Q1 economic growth slowed more than anticipated, inflationary pressures persisted. This led to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Eyes are now on March's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for further insights into the rate outlook. A notable uptick in PCE figures could reinforce expectations of only one rate cut this year. The dollar index, DXY, was on track for its largest weekly decline since early March, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies. Despite the sluggish U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter, China's robust net gold imports via Hong Kong surged by 40% in March. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to project inflation near its 2% target and signal readiness to raise rates from near-zero to prevent further depreciation of the yen. On COMEX, gold prices are nearing the $2340 hurdle. A breakthrough could propel prices to recent highs of $2400, while failure to sustain above may invite selling pressure, potentially pushing prices to $2290 support levels. Silver prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $27.00 and $28.50. Looking ahead, gold prices may trade sideways to bullish, within the range of 70200-72500, while silver may fluctuate within 80000-83500.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Oil prices reversed their two-week losing streak and ended on a positive note, buoyed by optimistic remarks from a top U.S. official regarding economic growth and on-going supply concerns stemming from conflicts in the Middle East. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statements to Reuters instilled confidence as she hinted at a potential upward revision in U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter and anticipated a decline in inflation after attributing recent economic weaknesses to peculiar factors. Although data revealed a slowdown in firstquarter economic growth, Yellen's comments provided reassurance, suggesting that the actual economic strength might surpass earlier expectations. Prior to her remarks, concerns about accelerating inflation had dampened oil prices, as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve would delay interest rate cuts until September. Furthermore, tensions in the Middle East continued to support prices, with Israel intensifying airstrikes on Rafah and announcing plans for a comprehensive assault despite warnings from allies about potential casualties. Looking ahead, oil prices may experience a mixed trend but are anticipated to lean towards the positive side. The potential trading range for the week is expected to be between 6750-7250. Meanwhile, natural gas witnessed a decline of 11.71% over the past four weeks and a 31.51% decrease over the last 12 months. However, prices recovered from recent lows driven by higher-thanexpected weekly EIA natural gas supplies. Expectations of warm weather in the southern U.S. boosted demand from electricity providers for air-conditioning usage, mitigating some of the downward pressure on prices. For the upcoming week, natural gas prices are forecasted to trade within the range of 152-175.

BASE METALS

The bullish trend in base metal prices may continue due to robust industrial activity and supply concerns amid mine-supply downgrades. A pick-up in manufacturing activity, particularly in top consumer, China where surveys of purchasing managers have started to show expansion has also contributed to enthusiasm for base metals. The demand is also expected to rise dramatically from Europe and the US, due to these countries potentially seeing an upswing in economic and industrial recovery. Copper may trade in the range of 847-870. Flourishing activity in the electric vehicle, power infrastructure, AI and automation sectors will lead to at least 10 million metric tons of additional copper consumption over the next decade, commodity trader Trafigura told Reuters. Technological developments such as artificial intelligence and automation, and the energy transition, which includes electric vehicles and renewable energy, have already driven up demand prospects for copper cable used to conduct electricity. Zinc can trade in range of 245-265 levels. The global refined zinc market will see a surplus of 56,000 metric tons in 2024 compared with a previous forecast of 367,000 tons. In the lead market, global supply of refined metal will exceed demand by 40,000 tons in 2024. Lead can move in the range of 187-194 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 230-245 levels. China's primary aluminium output in March rose by 7.4% year-on-year, fuelled by increased demand and industry profitability driven by rising metal prices. Steel long (May) is likely to trade in the range of 42700-44700 levels with negative bias as China's cumulative stainless steel imports in March 2024 totalled 161,500 tonnes, a decrease of about 30.76% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of about 3.07%.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ZINC MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 256.40
M*.Low: 217.05

It closed at Rs.252.35 on 25th Apr 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 244.38. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 73.500. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 252 for a target of Rs. 265 with the stop loss of 246.

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 7280.00
M*.Low: : 6433.00

It closed at Rs. 6911.00 on 25th Apr 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6942.76. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.358. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal

One can buy near Rs.6950 for a target of Rs.7250 with the stop loss of 6800.

TURMERIC NCDEX
Contract: JUNE
M*.High: 20174.00
M*.Low: 12922.00

It closed at Rs. 19082.00 on 25th Apr 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 18187.87. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.228. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy above Rs.18800 for a target of Rs.19900 with the stop loss of 18200.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The global refined zinc market will see a surplus of 56,000 metric tons in 2024 compared with a previous forecast of 367,000 tons: International Lead and Zinc Study Group.
  • In the lead market, global supply of refined metal will exceed demand by 40,000 tons in 2024: International Lead and Zinc Study Group.
  • The International Nickel Study Group forecasted that nickel supply to exceed demand to the tune of 109,000 tons this year after surpluses of 98,000 and 163,000 tons in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
  • China's gold consumption in the first quarter of 2024 climbed by 5.94% from the year earlier to 308.905 metric tons, the country's Gold Association said. China's gold output made of domestically produced raw materials during January-March rose 1.16% on the year to 85.959 tons.
  • Goldman Sachs forecast the global refined copper market is likely to show a deficit of 428,000 tons in 2024.
  • According to SMM statistics, China's cumulative stainless steel imports in March 2024 totalled 161,500 tons, a decrease of about 30.76% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of about 3.07%.
  • Cotton Exports during October-March were up 137 per cent at 18 lakh bales compared to the 7.59 lakh bales logged in the same period last year , per the latest estimates released by the Cotton Association of India .
  • Wheat procurement in the country reached 119.26 lakh tonnes (lt) until April 23, against 159.23 lt year-ago, official data show.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Last week in the commodity market, the CRB index faced resistance around 346, resulting in a slight dip. Following a strong five-week rally, gold prices retreated due to profit booking, while silver briefly slipped below $27 before ending the week above that mark. On MCX, gold hit a low of 70202, and silver slipped below 80000 briefly. Natural gas prices faced resistance near $1.82 after a prolonged consolidation period. Crude oil prices, which halted near $88 a few weeks back, saw further decline initially, but rebounded following a drop in US crude oil inventory. . Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday indicated that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week as exports jumped, while gasoline stockpiles decreased less than forecast. Crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels in the week ended on April 19, the EIA said, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise. Among base metals, copper continued its impressive rally for the fifth consecutive week due to robust industrial activity, supply disruption mid sanctions on Russian metals and improved demand in the world's largest consumer of the metal. The demand is also expected to rise dramatically from Europe and the US, due to these countries potentially seeing an upswing in economic and industrial recovery. Lead prices slipped from their highs. Aluminum paused its eight-week upward streak, and zinc experienced a fall from its peak. The global refined zinc market will see a surplus of 56,000 metric tons in 2024 compared with a previous forecast of 367,000 tons. In the lead market, global supply of refined metal will exceed demand by 40,000 tons in 2024.

In agricultural commodities, castor seed prices reversed their four-week decline, while sun oil prices declined. Cotton Candy witnessed a modest recovery from its lows, and cotton oilseed cake followed a similar trajectory. Guar maintained its positive momentum. Export of guar derivative products rose 46% Y-o-y to 37.3 thousand tonnes in Feb'24. Among spices, jeera prices continued their downward trend, while turmeric prices surprised the market with an upward movement Emerging export enquires and comparatively lower arrivals against the last year contributed majorly in rally in turmeric prices. Dhaniya futures also closed in positive territory after a period of fluctuation on robust export demand. Dhaniya export rose 35% Y-o-Y in Feb'24 to 4.6 thousand tonnes as per recent government official release. Overall export of dhaniya reached to 71.18 thousand tonnes during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24.. Mentha oil recovered from the 900 levels following a six-week decline.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Kapas ..........................On NCDEX

Kapas is one of the oldest natural fibers under human cultivation. It is referred as “white gold” indicating the importance in human life. Kapas is raw cotton without separation of sees while in Cotton, seeds have been separated.

Being as second largest producer of Kapas after China, India contributes about 24% of global production. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) raised crop production estimates for the same season to 323.11 lakh bales, against the earlier estimate of 316.57 lakh bales and lower than 336.6 lakh bales achieved in 2022-23.

Talking about the fundamentals of current marketing year 2023-24, the arrivals have reduced as harvesting season has over and about 260.33 lakh bales arrived so far in year 2023-24. Arrival pace has lower so far but likely to be slow down due weaker production estimates in year 2023-24.

At demand front, India is the second largest consumer of cotton accounts for 21% of global consumption and consumes about 300-320 lakh bales domestically on annual basis. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) said it has procured 32.81 lakh bales of cotton so far in the ongoing 2023-24 season with maximum quantity from Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Domestic consumption is revised upwardly from 313 lakh bales to 317 lakh bales in year 2023-24 along with surging exports up to 42 lakh bales as compared to 34 lakh bales o f pr e v i ous month's estimates. With Indian cotton prices staying att rac tive for global

buyers, exports of the fiber crop to countries such as Bangladesh, China and Vietnam, have picked up over the past four months. Export of cotton and cotton yarn from India is likely to be bleak in year 2023-24 due to lower availability amid lingering quality issue of new crop caused by adverse weather. Below normal supplies in domestic market will keep cotton prices costlier in year 2024 and that will affect the overall export adversely.

Stocks Opening stocks are projected to be 61.16 lakh bales, contributing to an overall supply projection of 396.27 lakh bales for the current season (October 2023-September 2024). The committee has also reduced its estimate of carryover stocks to 52.27 lakh bales from the earlier estimate of 57.65 lakh bales.

For the upcoming marketing year (MY) 2024/25, India's cotton production is expected to decrease by two per cent due to anticipated shifts in acreage towards higher return crops.

Kapas prices are expected to trade sideways to higher due to supply tightness. Ending stocks of cotton is likely to drop to multiyear low level of 20 lakh bales in year 2023-24 whereas it was reported at 28.9 lakh bales in year 2022-23. Production is estimated to be down by 3% Y-o-Y in year 2023-24 that will prompt millers to go for aggressive buying on every dips in prices.

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian rupee stayed fairly stable against the US dollar this week, holding above 83.40 after a recent dip to 83.57 last week. The central bank's actions helped prevent a significant decline. We can expect the rupee to trade within a range of 83.20 to 83.60 as markets await US inflation data and the FOMC rate decision next week. Markets are currently factoring in only one rate cut for 2024, which is creating pressure on emerging currencies, including the rupee. On the global front, the Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates near zero and expressed confidence that inflation would reach 2% in the future. However, they didn't provide clear guidance on future rate hikes, leading to a drop in the yen's value against the dollar. This lack of clarity raised concerns about potential currency intervention. The central bank also stated that it would continue buying government bonds at the current pace, disappointing some traders who had hoped for a reduction to curb yen depreciation. Overall, the market reaction suggests a belief that the BOJ's policy is too loose, leading to a weaker yen. Meanwhile Eurozone consumers lowered their inflation expectations for the next 12 months to 3.0% in March which may put a cap in the recent modest upside in the euro. Critical watch will be next week FOMC rate decision to assess the relative move in the dollar

USDINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Sideways trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.35. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 83.15 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.6 levels.

GBPINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.29. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 103.65 levels, while resistance is expected near 105.45 levels.

EURINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 89.35. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 88.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.25 levels.

JPYINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 54.22. However, the pair is in Oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 19 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 52.15 levels, while resistance is expected near 53.5 levels.

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IPO

Voda Idea FPO shares list much above offer price

Shares offered in the Vodafone Idea follow on public offer (FPO) listed at ₹11.8 apiece on the NSE, about 7.3% above the FPO price of ₹11. The shares were listed at ₹12 on BSE and closed at ₹13.8, after a gain of 5.3%. Vodafone Idea's ₹18,000-crore follow-on public offer (FPO), India's biggest, closed successfully earlier this week having been subscribed 7 times, with strong demand from global institutional investors. Vodafone Idea had priced the issue at ₹10-11 a share, a 26% discount to the ₹14.87 a share that was recently set for the preferential issue to one of the promoters.

Kronox Lab Sciences receives Sebi approval to float IPO

Speciality chemicals company Kronox Lab Sciences has received Sebi's go ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The proposed offer comprises an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 96 lakh equity shares by promoters -- Jogindersingh Jaswal, Ketan Ramani and Pritesh Ramani. The offer represents up to 26 percent of the paid-up equity share capital of Kronox Lab Sciences, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). The company, which filed preliminary IPO papers with Sebi in January this year, obtained its observations on April 12, the latest update showed. In Sebi's parlance, obtaining observations means its go ahead to float the public issue. Vadodara-based Kronox is a manufacturer of high-purity specialty fine chemicals. Its products find application in a wide spectrum of industries for diversified uses such as pharmaceutical formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, biotech, scientific research and testing, nutraceuticals, personal care, agrochemicals, animal health, metallurgy, amongst others. It has three manufacturing facilities and Research, Development and Testing (RDT) laboratory, in Vadodara, Gujarat. Additionally, the company has acquired land at Dahej, Gujarat, to set up a new manufacturing plant. The company has more than 120 products under various phases of research and development. The company exports to more than 20 countries with major exports to the USA, the UK, Mexico, Australia, and Egypt, among others. Pantomath Capital Advisors is the sole bookrunning lead manager. The company's equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and the NSE.

TBO Tek, Awfis Space get SEBI nod to raise funds via IPO

TBO Tek Ltd and Awfis Space Solutions Ltd have received Securities Exchange Board of India's approval to raise funds via initial public offerings. TBO Tek filed draft papers with SEBI in November 2023 while Awfis Space Solutions submitted its DRHP in December 2023. Online travel distribution platform TBO Tek IPO comprises a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 400 crore by the company, and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 1.56 crore equity shares by promoters and investors. Promoters Gaurav Bhatnagar, Manish Dhingra, and LAP Travel, and investors TBO Korea, and Augusta TBO are the selling shareholders in the OFS. Axis Capital, Goldman Sachs (India), JM Financial and Jefferies India are the book-running lead managers to the issue, while KFin Technologies is the registrar to the offer. Awfis Space IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 160 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to 10.02 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to 5.01 million shares by Peak XV Partners Investments V, up to 4.94 million shares by Bisque Ltd, and up to 75,174 million shares by Link Investment Trust. ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, IIFL Securities and Emkay Global Financial Services are the book running managers to the issue.

Premier Energies files draft papers for IPO with fresh issue component of Rs 1,500 crore

Premier Energies, one of the largest solar cell and solar module manufacturers, has filed preliminary papers with the capital markets regulator SEBI to raise funds via an initial public offering. The IPO consists of a fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 1,500 crore by the company, and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 2.82 crore equity shares by the existing shareholders. Investors South Asia Growth Fund II Holdings LLC, and South Asia EBT Trust, and promoter Chiranjeev Singh Saluja are the selling shareholders in the OFS. At the time of filing draft papers, promoters hold 72.23 percent stake on a fully diluted basis, and 26.12 percent shares are held by public shareholders, including South Asia Growth Fund II Holdings LLC, and South Asia EBT Trust. Further, employees have a 1.65 percent shareholding in the company. The Hyderabad-based company may also consider mobilising Rs 300 crore in a pre-IPO placement before filing the red herring prospectus with the Registrar of Companies. Premier Energies, which claimed to be the second largest integrated solar cell and solar module manufacturer with an annual installed capacity of 2 GW and 3.36 GW, respectively, will spend Rs 1,168.74 crore out of the net fresh issue proceeds for the establishment of a 4 GW solar PV TOPCon cell and 4 GW solar PV TOPCon module manufacturing facility in Hyderabad by the subsidiary, Premier Energies Global Environment (PEGEPL). The remaining fresh issue money will be used for general corporate purposes. On the financial front, the company, which also focuses on the execution of EPC projects, independent power production, and O&M services with respect to EPC projects, has posted a consolidated loss of Rs 13.3 crore for the year ended March FY23 against a loss of Rs 14.4 crore in previous fiscal, but revenue from operations jumped by 92.3 percent to Rs 1,428.5 crore during the same period.

Sanathan Textiles refiles draft papers to raise Rs 800 crore via IPO

Yarn products manufacturer Sanathan Textiles has refiled preliminary papers with the capital markets regulator SEBI to raise Rs 800 crore via initial public offering. The IPO is a mix of fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 500 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of shares worth Rs 300 crore by promoters. Earlier, the company had filed draft papers with the SEBI in January 2022 for IPO which was comprised of a fresh issue of Rs 500 crore and an OFS of 1.14 crore equity shares by promoters. It was planning to raise around Rs 1,300 crore via IPO which has received approval from the regulator in May 2022 but could not proceed further. As per the latest prospectus, the Mumbai-based company may consider raising funds up to Rs 100 crore in a pre-IPO placement, before filing the red herring prospectus with the Registrar of Companies. Sanathan Textiles will spend Rs 175 crore out of the net fresh issue proceeds for repaying debts and further Rs 210 crore will be used for long-term working capital requirements of its subsidiary Sanathan Polycot. And the remaining fresh issue money will be utilised for general corporate purposes. "As of December 2023, our total sanctioned and outstanding indebtedness was Rs 2,608.5 crore and Rs 706.84 crore, respectively," the company said in its DRHP. With more than 2,800 active varieties of yarn products and more than 30,000 stock keeping units (SKUs), Sanathan Textiles has divided its business into three separate yarn business verticals - polyester yarn products, cotton yarn products; and yarns for technical textiles and industrial uses. Its products are manufactured at the Silvassa facility, which had a total installed capacity of 2,23,750 MTPA across the three yarn verticals as of December 2023. DAM Capital Advisors and ICICI Securities are the book-running lead managers to the issue.

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

HDFC Mutual Fund launches HDFC Manufacturing Fund

HDFC Mutual Fund has announced the launch of HDFC Manufacturing Fund, an open-ended equity scheme aiming to unlock the potential of India's manufacturing sector by investing predominantly in equity and equity-related securities of companies engaged in manufacturing activities. The new fund offer or the NFO of the scheme will open for subscription on April 26 and close on May 10. The fund's investment objective is to provide long-term capital appreciation by identifying companies poised to benefit from India's manufacturing resurgence. The scheme will be managed by Rakesh Sethia. India's manufacturing sector stands at the cusp of an Amrit Kaal, a golden era, fuelled by various factors such as growing consumption, investments, and exports, coupled with changing geopolitical dynamics and the government's push for self-reliance through reforms and incentives. The fund seeks to capitalise on these tailwinds, offering investors an opportunity to participate in the country's transformation into a global manufacturing powerhouse, according to the press release by the fund house. The investment strategy of the scheme will emphasise on a core portfolio comprising at least 80% investment in stocks representing diverse sectors under the manufacturing theme. The fund's flexible approach allows for investments across market capitalization, offering investors an exposure to a wide range of opportunities within the manufacturing landscape, said the press release.

WhiteOak Mutual Fund files draft with Sebi for Special Opportunities Fund

WhiteOak Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for a special opportunities fund. The fund will be known as WhiteOak Capital Special Opportunities Fund and will be an open-ended equity scheme following a special situations theme. The primary objective of the scheme will be to generate long-term capital appreciation by investing in opportunities presented by special situations such as corporate restructuring (including mergers & acquisitions etc.), government policy and/or regulatory changes, technology-led disruption and innovation, new trends, new & emerging sectors, companies/sectors going through temporary unique challenges and other similar instances. In respect of each purchase / switch-in of units, an exit load of 1.00% will be payable if units are redeemed/ switched-out within 1 month from the date of allotment. No exit load is payable if units are redeemed / switched-out after 1 month from the date of allotment. The scheme will offer regular and direct plans with growth option only. The minimum application amount for lumpsum investment will be Rs 500 and multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum application amount for weekly, fortnightly and monthly SIP will be Rs 100 (plus in multiple of Re 1) with minimum six instalments. The scheme will invest 80-100% in equity and equity-related instruments of special situations theme, 0-20% in equity and equity-related instruments of other companies, 0-20% in debt securities and money market instruments, and 0- 10% in units issued by REITS and InVITs. The scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE 500 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Ramesh Mantri, Trupti Agrawal, Dheeresh Pathak, Piyush Baranwal, and Shariq Merchant(overseas investments).

Kotak Mutual Fund files draft document with Sebi for special opportunities fund

Kotak Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for a special opportunities fund. Kotak Special Opportunities Fund will be an open-ended equity scheme following a special situations theme. The investment objective of the scheme will be to generate long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in opportunities presented by special situations such as Company Specific Event/Developments, Corporate Restructuring, Government Policy change and/or Regulatory changes, Technology led Disruption/ Innovation or companies going through temporary but unique challenges and other similar instances. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Devender Singhal and Arjun Khanna. The minimum application amount for lumpsum, SIP, and additional purchase investments will be Rs 100, and any amount thereafter. The minimum redemption amount for all plans will be Rs 1,000 or 100 units or account balance, whichever is lower. The scheme will allocate 80-100% in equity and equity-related securities of special situations theme, 0-20% in equity and equity-related securities other than of special situations theme and overseas mutual funds schemes/ETFs/foreign securities, 0-20% in debt and money market securities, and 0-10% in units of REITs & InvITs.

Mutual fund industry assets grow 35% in Fy24

The mutual fund industry's assets under management grew by 35% in FY24, recording the highest gain since fiscal FY21 when the industry grew by 41%, said the Association of Mutual Funds India (AMFI). The number of folios closed at a record high of 17.78 crore, with the investor base standing at around 4.46 crore. AMFI said individual investors dominated mutual fund categories such as equity, hybrid and solution-oriented schemes with the three categories together accounting for nearly 58% of the industry assets and 80% of the folio count as of March 2024. The share of assets under management of these categories has increased from 45% in March 2019. Debt funds saw moderate growth of around 7% in FY24 to close with assets of ₹12.62 lakh crore, after contracting 2% and 9% in the previous two financial years, 2022 and 2023, respectively, showed data from the mutual fund industry body. The category also gained in folios, albeit a small number of over 5,000 folios in fiscal FY24, after declines in the previous two fiscals, according to the industry body. In terms of asset growth, money market and liquid funds saw the highest absolute asset gain of ₹40,000 crore and 31,000 crore respectively, it said.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts





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