Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

Global stocks went on a roller coaster ride last week as investors nervously awaited key Ginflation data from the US and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Recent inflation numbers, though higher than expected, haven't shaken investor confidence in a rate cut from the Fed in June. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all on track for their fifth consecutive month of gains in March. Markets are now looking to the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for further clues. Meanwhile, a European Central Bank board member expressed growing confidence that inflation will fall back to their 2% target by mid2025. Additionally, comments from the Bank of England suggest the UK economy is headed in the right direction for rate cuts. Investors generally expect the Fed, ECB, and BoE to each cut rates by a total of 75 basis points this year, spread out in three quarter-point moves. In a major shift, the Bank of Japan finally ended its negative interest rate policy, raising rates to a range of 0% to 0.1%. They believe price stability is achievable and are aiming for a sustainable 2% inflation target. On the economic front, Japan's GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.4% in the last quarter, exceeding initial estimates of a contraction.

Back at home, domestic markets experienced swings this week, mirroring mixed signals from around the world. However, domestic markets closed higher on Thursday due to strong buying in banking and financial stocks, along with Reliance Industries, a major market influencer. This positive momentum comes amid global optimism that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2024, regardless of upcoming inflation data. This sentiment is fueled by recent dovish statements from the US central bank. Adding to the positive outlook, India witnessed record-breaking foreign inflows of Rs. 3.33 lakh crore (US$40.4 billion) this financial year across equities, debt, and hybrid instruments. This surpasses the previous high of Rs. 2.67 lakh crore seen in FY21 by a significant 25%. In another development, the Indian government announced plans to borrow Rs. 7.50 lakh crore through government security issuance in the first half of the next fiscal year (April-September 2024). Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently modified regulations for investments by Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs).

On the commodity market front, the CRB index extended its upward trend for the third consecutive week; above 330. Gold prices saw a second consecutive week of gains. Silver prices remained relatively stable with slight gains. The Dollar index closed slightly lower but maintained levels above 104.3. US treasury yields declined for the second consecutive week. In the energy sector, crude oil prices surged for the third consecutive week, closing above 6800 levels, while natural gas prices experienced modest gains within a narrow range. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 65500-67000 and 73000-77000 respectively. Crude oil prices can face resistance near 6950 levels. Natural gas prices is making a base near 140-150, has potential to touch 170 in near term. This week, several key economic indicators are set to be released, shaping market sentiment and influencing commodity prices. These include the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI for the US, along with Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate in the same region. Additionally, market players will closely monitor the Inflation Rate in Germany, Core Inflation Rate in the Euro Area, and the Balance of Trade and Unemployment Rate in Canada. These data points carry significant weight in assessing economic health and are likely to impact commodity markets accordingly.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Power
  • Reliance Industries acquired a 100% stake in MSKVY Nineteenth Solar SPV and MSKVYTwenty-second Solar SPV from MSEB Solar Agro Power.
  • Adani Solar Energy RJ Two, wholly-owned stepdown subsidiary of Adani Green Energy (AGEL) has operationalized 180 MW of solar power project at Devikot in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan. With operationalization of this plant, AGEL's total operational renewable generation capacity has increased to 9,784 MW, in its journey of 45 GW capacity by 2030.
Cement
  • UltraTech Cement has commissioned 1 mtpa (million tons per annum) of brownfield cement capacity at Roorkee, Uttarakhand. With this, the capacity of said unit has been increased to 2.1 mtpa and the total grey cement manufacturing capacity in India to 138.39 mtpa.
Defence
  • Hindustan Aeronautics has signed a contract with the Guyana Defence Force (GDF) and the Guyana Government for the supply of two Hindustan-228 commuter aircraft along with the Manufacturer Recommended List of Spares (MRLS), ground handling equipment and ground support equipment, training, and hand-holding at a total value of MUSD23.37 (approximately Rs 194 crore).
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin Ltd is planning to carve out its trade generics business in India and transfer it to Lupin Life Sciences Ltd (LLSL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, for Rs.100-120 crore.
  • Dr Reddy's Laboratories has entered into a license agreement with US-based biopharmaceutical company Pharmazz, Inc. to commercialize Centhaquine in India. Centhaquine, developed by Pharmazz, is a resuscitative agent indicated for the treatment of hypovolemic shock.
Capital Goods
  • Bharat Heavy Electricals has received an order worth Rs 4,000 crore from Adani Power for setting up a thermal power plant in Chhattisgarh.
  • Kalpataru Projects International and its arms have bagged orders worth Rs 2,071 crore. The new orders include orders in the Transmission & Distribution (T&D) business in overseas markets. Besides it has also got an order for design & construction of an underground metro rail project in India.
Auto Ancillaries
  • UNO Minda has entered into a technical licence agreement with Starcharge Energy to manufacture and sell electric vehicle supply equipment in India.
FMCG
  • Prataap Snacks commercial production at its newly set-up unit situated at Khewat commenced.
Construction
  • HG Infra Engineering got LoA in consortium with Stockwell Solar Services from Jodhpur Vidyut Vitran Nigam for solar solar project estimated at Rs 534 crore.
  • Rail Vikas Nigam has signed a MoU with the Airports Authority of India (AAI) for the construction of a subway or underpass to connect the operational area to the Airport Authority of India residential colony in Kolkata. The estimated cost of the project is Rs 229.43 crore.
Entertainment
  • Wonderla Holidays has received, in principle, approval from the board for exploring the possibility of setting up an adventure park as an expansion of the Bangalore resort.It will evaluate the financial viability ofthe adventure park.
Diversified
  • Balmer Lawrie & Company will set up a free trade warehousing zone in the Special Economic Zone of Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority near Mumbai on a land parcel of approximately 15 acres and invest Rs 230 crore.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • US consumer confidence index slipped to 104.7 in March from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February. Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to come in unchanged compared to the 106.7 originally reported for the previous month.
  • US new home sales dipped by 0.3 percent to an annual rate of 662,000 in February after jumping by 1.7 percent to a revised rate of 664,000 in January. Economists had expected new home sales to surge by 2.9 percent to a rate of 680,000 from the 661,000 originally reported forthe previous month.
  • Eurozone economic sentiment index climbed to 96.3 in March, as expected, from 95.5 in the previous month. The industrial confidence index rose to -8.8 from -9.4 in February. Managers' production expectations weakened and fewer managers assessed the stocks offinished products as too large or above normal.
  • China's Industrial profits grew 10.2 percent in the January to February period from the previous year. This has reversed a 2.3 percent fall seen in 2023. Profits of the equipment manufacturing sector logged a notable growth during January to February period.
  • The Bank of Japan's underlying inflation measure slowed more than expected in February. The core inflation rate, which is a trimmed mean in BoJ calculations, eased to 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent in January and December. Economists had expected the rate to slow to 2.5 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

UNION BANK OF INDIA

CMP: 153.45

Target Price: 179

Upside: 17%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 161.85/61.30
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 117137.68
  • EPS (Rs.) 17.40
  • P/E Ratio (times) 8.82
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.29
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.79
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The business of the bank has increased 11% YoY to Rs 2068429 crore end December 2023, driven by 11% surge in advances to Rs 895974 crore. Deposits rose 10% to Rs 1172455 crore at end December 2023.
  • Advances growth was driven by retail loans rising 13% YoY to Rs 173445 crore at end December 2023, while credit to agriculture increased 18% to Rs 177583 crore and MSME 11% to Rs 136746 crore at end December 2023. The corporate credit rose 9% to Rs 408200 crore end December 2023. The overseas credit has jumped 39% to Rs 29285 crore end December 2023.
  • The CASAdeposits of the bank rose 6% YoY to Rs 397107 crore at end December 2023. The current account deposits were flat at Rs 70805 crore, while saving account deposits increased 5% to Rs 326302 crore end December 2023. The CASA ratio declined to 33.9% at end December 2023 compared to 35.3% at end December 2022, while declined from 34.1% a quarter ago
  • Net interest income (NII) in Q3 FY24 was at Rs 9,168 crore, up 6.26% from Rs 8,628 crore posted in Q3 FY23. Net interest margin (NIM) decline to 3.08% in Q3 FY24 as compared to 3.21% registered in the same period a year ago.
  • The bank has continued to improve asset quality in Q3FY2024. The ratio of gross NPAs declined to 4.83% as on 31 December 2023 as compared to 7.93% as on 31 December 2022. The ratio of net NPAs reduced to 1.08% as on 31 December 2023 from 2.14% as on 31 December 2022.
  • Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) improved to 92.54% as on 31 December 2023 as against 88.50% as on 31 December 2022. Bank has improved the credit to deposit ratio to 77.80% at end December 2023 from 75.50% at end December 2023.
  • CRAR improved to 15.03% as on 31 December 2023 from 14.45% as on 31 December 2022. CET1 ratio increased to 11.71% as on 31 December 2023 as against 10.71% as on 31 December 2022.
  • Bank's return on assets & return on equity improved to 1.07% and 17.25% respectively.

Risk

  • Economic slowdown
  • Deterioration in asset quality

Valuation

The bank has delivered significant growth in business and improvement in assets quality. Going forward, the robust economic activities and pick-up in the credit growth is expected to drive the future growth of the bank. The bank is focusing on digital transformation which is expected to complete in next two to three year, this would further drive the business growth and bring help reduce operating cost. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.179 in 8 to 10 months time frame on current P/BV of 1.29x and FY25 (E) BVPS of Rs. 138.85

PETRONET LNG LIMITED

CMP: 262.10

Target Price: 308

Upside: 17%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 296.15/191.65
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 39315.00
  • EPS (Rs.) 23.38
  • P/E Ratio (times) 11.21
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.38
  • Dividend Yield (%) 3.82
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • Petronet LNG Limited is a Joint Venture Company with equity participation from four Oil & Gas Maharatna Public Sector undertakings i.e., GAIL, ONGC, IOCL and BPCL each holding equity of 12.50%, and together totalling to 50%. The Company had set up Country's first LNG Receiving and Regasification Terminal and started its operations in year 2004, with an initial nameplate capacity of 5 MMTPA at Dahej, Gujarat. Since then, the capacity of the Dahej terminal has been expanded in phases (10 MMTPA in year 2009, 15 MMTPAin 2016 and 17.5 MMTPAin 2019).
  • Recently it has executed a LNG Sale & Purchase Agreement (LNG SPA) for purchase of around 7.5 MMTPA LNG with QatarEnergy on long-term basis. This is pursuant to extension of an existing LNG SPA for LNG supply of around 7.5 MMTPA LNG Sale & Purchase Agreement on FOB basis, signed on 31st July 1999 for supplies till 2028. Under the new agreement, LNG supplies would commission from 2028 till 2048.
  • It is setting up a petrochemical plant in Dahej, Gujarat with an estimated cost of Rs. 20,685 crore. The project would bring revenue generation from sale of Poly-Propylene, Propylene, Propane, Hydrogen and Ethane. The project would also get benefited from utilising 'ColdEnergy' from its existing Dahej LNG terminal making this project energy-efficient. According to the management, it project would be ready in the next four years.
  • The Company is in process of setting up its maiden LNG terminal on the east coast of India at Gopalpur, District- Ganjam, Odisha. It has executed binding Transaction Documents with M/s Goplapur Ports Limited for setting up of Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) based LNG terminal with capacity of ~4 MMTPA (Phase-1), with provision for converting to 5 MMTPAland-based terminal.
  • According to the management, the company plans to begin supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Sri Lanka for five years starting in 2025. It would ship 850 metric tons of gas daily. It also plans to commission a floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) in Sri Lanka by 2028 at an estimated cost of Rs. 2,500 crore.

Risk

  • Increase Commodity Price
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

The execution of LNG SPAwith QatarEnergy augers well for the Company, in terms of growth visibility. Its diversification into Poly-Propylene, Propylene, Propane, Hydrogen and Ethane by setting up new plant at a time when government is looking at making the country a petchem hub is also likely to benefit the company. Besides, the company improved operational performance on the back of higher capacity utilization indicates near term growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.308 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on three year average P/BV of 2.45x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.125.70.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED (GODREJCP)

The stock closed at Rs.1251.80 on 28th March, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.897 on 28th April, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1314.30 on 01st February 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 1096.

In February 2024, the stock peaked at 1314.30, marking its 52- week high, before retracing back to the 1200 levels and entering into a consolidation phase. Within the range of 1200- 1280, the stock exhibited a series of lower bottom patterns on the daily timeframe. Recently, there has been a notable breakout above a symmetrical triangle pattern. This breakout was accompanied by positive divergences on secondary oscillators, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1240-1250 levels for the upside target of 1375-1380 levels with SL below 1170 levels.

MAX FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED (MFSL)

The stock closed at Rs.3791 on 22ND March, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.2868.90 on 28th MARCH, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.4011.15 on 21ST JUNE 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.3518.

Following a rebound from its 200-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe, the stock swiftly surged towards the 1000 mark in short span. Despite this rapid recovery, the stock has remained within the range of 930-1000 for approximately two months due to a series of consolidations. However, last week a renewed momentum has been witnessed into the prices as the stock broke out above a rectangle pattern formation. Notably, the stock successfully closed above its critical resistance level of 1000 as well. The surge in trading volumes, coupled with price action, indicates support for the next upward movement in prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 995-1005 levels for the upside target of 1125-1130 levels with SL below 920 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

In the last working day of the financial year, the market closed in green zone where Nifty outperformed the Banknifty. Nifty surged by over 1% on a weekly basis, while Banknifty also experienced a gain of more than half a percent. Key sectors such as Realty, Infra and Consumer Durables emerged as major gainers, while Media and IT stocks underperformed. From the derivative front, in Nifty options, the highest call open interest was observed at the 22,500 strike, while the highest put open interest was at the 22,000 strike. For Banknifty, the highest call open interest was at the 47,500 strike, followed by 48,000 strike, with the highest put open interest at the 47,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 12.14% and put options concluded at 12.73%. The India VIX, a crucial market volatility indicator, ended the week at 12.70%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.25 for the week. In this week, Nifty is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 to 22500 levels. Following last week's pattern where Nifty tested the 50- day exponential moving average support and rebounded, traders are advised to monitor this indicator closely. Keeping this in mind will help traders identify trends and make informed decisions in the market.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 27th March, 2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices are likely to trade sideways to down in anticipation of rise in domestic supplies. Advancement of harvesting activities will lead to rise in supplies. Weather condition is looking conducive for harvest that will support facilitate the harvesting activities in Telangana and Maharashtra. About 49.7 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived at major APMC mandies across India in Mar'24 against the 62.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. Arrivals remained lower due to lower crop as production is estimated to drop by 20% Y-o-Y in year 2024. Export enquires have been bleak and likely to remain sluggish that will be the major hurdle for major gains in prices. Advancement of harvesting activities and slower export enquires will cap the gains. Turmeric export from India dropped 15% Y-o-y to 10.49 thousand tonnes in Jan'24 wherein total export during Apr'23-Jan'24 reported at 131.6 thousand tonnes down by 3.5% from previous year. Fall in exports can be attributed to limited availability of quality produce and higher prices. Turmeric prices are likely to face resistance near 18800 wherein support is seen near 16400.

Jeera futures remained higher on improved exports amid active buying by stockists. Global supplies have been tighter due to lower production in Syria and Turkey that boosted the Indian jeera exports in recent months. Indian jeera prices have turned attractive at prevailing rates that will lead to rise in exports. India exported 12.4 thousand tonnes of jeera in Jan'24 as compared to 8.04 thousand tonnes previous year higher by 54% Y-o-Y . Exports seasonality of jeera suggest that export demand remains higher during Mar due to strong demand prospects ahead in wake of series of festivals in Mar-Apr. Supplies of new crop have started with advancement of harvesting activities that will cap the gains. Jeera production in India is expected to increase by 30% Y-o-Y in year 2024. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 21500-32000.

Dhaniya prices are likely to remain higher due to weaker production prospects amid robust export demand. Production is likely to be down about 10-15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield. India exported about 83.6 thousand tonnes of coriander during Apr'23-Jan'24 compared to 24.8 tonnes of previous year up by 215% Y-o-Y. Firmness in dhaniya is likely to remain intact due to bleak supply outlook supported by lower production estimates. Increased festive buying will also support firmness in prices. However, new arrivals are likely to commence in coming weeks that will cap the excessive gains. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7300-8200.

BULLIONS

Gold prices saw weekly gains as investors processed comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller regarding potential interest rate cuts and awaited further U.S. economic data for policy indications. The previous week, gold hit a record high following the Fed's anticipation of three rate cuts in 2024, despite recent inflationary pressures. Governor Waller's stance, citing disappointing inflation data, suggested a delay in cutting the short-term interest rate target. Investor attention turned towards the upcoming U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gauge the timing of potential rate adjustments. Projections indicated a 0.3% rise in the PCE price index for February, maintaining an annual pace of 2.8%. Additionally, the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report was under scrutiny. Traders, meanwhile, reflected a 62% probability of rate cuts beginning in June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 88.866, indicating a bullish trend. This suggests that gold is likely to outperform silver in the upcoming sessions. However, a hurdle is observed near the 91 level. Gold prices remained range bound for most of the month, with a potential breakout anticipated above the current resistance level of $2,225 per ounce, potentially targeting the $2,300 mark. Silver prices on COMEX were expected to trade within the range of $24.00-$26.00, displaying mixed trends. Looking ahead, gold prices on MCX were projected to trade between 64700-67500, with possible corrections from higher levels. Silver prices on MCX were anticipated to fluctuate within the wider range of 72900-76000.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil saw weekly gains following the latest EIA report, which indicated a smaller-than-expected increase in US crude inventories compared to the API's report. While the EIA data showed a rise of 3.165 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a draw of 1.275 million barrels, it was significantly lower than the API's reported increase of 9.337 million barrels. Investors also considered on going supply-side concerns ahead of the OPEC Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee meeting scheduled for the coming week. Market consensus leans towards rate cuts by both the Fed and the ECB starting in June. Crude oil received support from recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, which damaged several facilities, limiting Russia's fuel exporting capacity. However, this disruption has yet to impact Russian fuel exports due to the large number of Russian ships transporting crude at sea. Despite OPEC+'s decision to extend crude production cuts until the end of June, OPEC's February crude production increased by 110,000 bpd to 26.680 million bpd, with Iraq and the UAE pumping above their quotas, exerting bearish pressure on oil prices. Additionally, the robust demand for crude oil in China contributed to a bullish outlook for prices. Overall, the market traded with mixed sentiment. Looking ahead, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 6650-6990 levels, with movements expected on both sides. On the flip side, natural gas prices recorded minor gains but remained under pressure due to expectations of above-normal temperatures in the US, which could reduce heating demand and increase natural gas inventories. Prices may continue to experience rangebound movement, finding support around 135-154.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bullish bias boosted by signs of stabilisation in the China's broader economy after profits atindustrial companies improved in the first two months. China's industrial firms posted higher profits in the opening months of the year, reinforcing signs that an economic recovery was gaining traction despite persistent sluggishness in the property sector. In top consumer China, a lack of sufficient capital has slowed the construction of infrastructure and property projects in the first quarter of 2024, weakening demand for base metals. Meanwhile, China's central bank set the yuan at a much stronger fixing than markets had expected, which could support the purchasing power of Chinese metals buyers. Copper may trade in the range of 750-780 levels. China's top copper smelters decided not to set guidance price for treatment and refining charges for copper concentrate processing in the second quarter of 2024, sources said. The smelters also proposed cutting refined copper production by 5-10%, the sources said. Zinc can trade in range of 210-226 levels. Rising inventories in LME and SHFE warehouses and weakening demand from the steel sector may weigh on the market. Lead can move in the range of 173-181 levels with bearish bias on higher supply. Macquarie expects a surplus in the global lead market of 76,000 tons this year and 138,000 tons in 2025. Aluminium can trade in the range of 200-215 levels with bullish bias due to concerns over slow recovery in production in China's Yunnan province. Steel long (Apr) is likely to trade in the range of 40800-42500 levels with negative bias. Steel demand is weakening around the world, due to factors like a slowdown in construction and manufacturing.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ALUMINIUM MCX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 209.50
M*.Low: 195.30

It closed at Rs.207.70 on 27th Mar 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.204.752. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.631. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.205.70 for a target of Rs.213.50 with the stop loss of 201.20.

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 6955.00
M*.Low: : 5952.00

It closed at Rs.6776.00 on 27th Mar 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.6682.258. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.083. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.6750 for a target of Rs.7150 with the stop loss of 6600.

CASTORSEED NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 6160.00
M*.Low: 5578.00

It closed at Rs.6072.00 on 27th Mar 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.5888.278 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.281. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.6015 for a target of Rs.6350 with the stop loss of 5900.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • In its global prediction for the April-September period of 2024, Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center has forecast above normal rainfall for India during the South-West monsoon, which sets in on June 1.
  • In the current year, the Government has directed NCCF and NAFED to initiate procurement of 5 lakh tonnes of onion for the buffer requirement directly from the farmers as Rabi-2024 harvest started arriving in the market.
  • The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) said it has procured 32.81 lakh bales of cotton so far in the ongoing 2023-24 season with maximum quantity from Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
  • Global crude steel production went up by 3.7 per cent in February 2024 to 148.8 million tonnes (mt) against 143.6 mt in the corresponding period a year ago.
  • India's gold imports are likely to fall to 10 to 11 metric tons in March to hit their lowest level since the COVID pandemic from 110 metric tons in February as banks cut imports after record-high prices hit demand, a government official told Reuters.
  • Japan's refined copper exports fell 46 percent in February from a year earlier to 28,989 tonnes, for a fifth straight month of year-on-year declines, Ministry of Finance data showed
  • The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the Centre's main grain-handling agency, had about 9.4 million tonne of the grain at the start of the current month compared to nearly 11.5 million tonne in March last year, according to an official data.
  • Ukrainian exports of sunflower oil in the first half of the 2023-2024 season increased by 18.5% compared with the same period a year before.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

The CRB index extended its upward trend for the third consecutive week,; above 330. Gold prices saw a second consecutive week of gains. Silver prices remained relatively stable with slight gains. India's gold imports are set to plunge by more than 90% in March from the previous month to hit the lowest level since the COVID pandemic, as banks cut imports after recordhigh prices hit demand. The Dollar index closed slightly lower but maintained levels above 104.3. US treasury yields declined for the second consecutive week. Among base metals, copper prices finished in positive territory, while lead prices retraced some of their weekly gains but still closed above 176 levels. Aluminum prices continued their upward trajectory for the fifth consecutive week, supported by crude oil prices, whereas zinc prices closed lower. In the energy sector, crude oil prices surged for the third consecutive week, closing above 6800 levels, while natural gas prices experienced modest gains within a narrow range. Oil prices rose as bets on tighter supplies, especially amid lower Russian production, put crude on course for a strong first quarter in 2024. Russia had earlier in March said it will deepen its ongoing production cuts, while fuel supplies in the country also shrank following a series of debilitating attacks by Ukraine on Russian fuel refineries.

Within the agricultural sector, castor seed prices declined after the previous week's gains due to profit booking. Sun oil futures ended lower for the second consecutive week, while cotton candy futures saw some buying interest at lower levels following a decline in the previous week. Price moved up also on supply tightness in physical market. Arrivals pace has been down due to lower production in domestic market. Cotton Advisory board has projected total cotton production for year 2023-24 at 323.11 lakh bales against the 336.60 lakh bales of previous year. Cotton oil seeds cake prices fell for the fourth straight week due to significant stocks in warehouses. Kapas prices also declined for the fourth consecutive week. In the spices market, trading was subdued, with jeera prices remaining range-bound amid subdued spot buying activity. However, Indian jeera prices have turned attractive at prevailing rates that will lead to rise in exports. India exported 12.4 thousand tonnes of jeera in Jan'24 as compared to 8.04 thousand tonnes previous year higher by 54% Y-o-Y . Turmeric and dhaniya prices also traded within narrow ranges on advancement of harvesting activities. Weather condition is looking conducive for harvest that will support facilitate the harvesting activities in Telangana and Maharashtra. About 49.7 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived at major APMC mandies across India in Mar'24 against the 62.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. Mentha oil prices experienced a third consecutive week of decline.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Copper Reserves: Top 5 Countries

Copper has become a third major industrial metal after iron and aluminium in terms of quantities consumed. For decades, copper has served as an effective barometer and most reliable indicator of the economic health of a region. This is why financial experts have traditionally referred copper as “Dr. Copper of economy”. Now, Copper's role in green energy and its necessity for urbanization and its dwindling resources are very relevant to current discussions about sustainability and the future.

The Copper Development Association pegs current known worldwide copper ore resources at nearly 5.8 trillion pounds, of which only about 0.7 trillion pounds, or 12 percent, have been mined throughout history. But the worry is that these might not be enough to meet the long-term needs of a growing green economy and expanding cities as the discovery rate of new major copper deposits has slowed down.

According to the most recent data from the US Geological Survey, the countries with the largest copper deposits are Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Chile

Chile has the largest copper reserves of any country by far, with 190 million metric tons as of 2023. Chile's reserves guarantee copper production for roughly the next 100 years at the current extraction rate. Chile is also the world's largest copper producer, having produced some 5 million MT of copper from mines in 2023. BHP's Escondida is the largest copper-producing mine in the world, and supply disruptions at the site — for example, due to wage negotiations — can also affect copper prices.

Peru

Peru holds 120 million MT, or 12 percent, of the world's copper reserves. In 2023, the country maintained its position as the second largest producer (tied with the DRC), with national copper output of 2.6 million MT. Peru's largest copper reserves can be found at the Antamina, Toquepala, Cerro Verde, Cuajone and Tintaya mines. Antamina mine is Peru's largest copper mine.

Australia

Australia has the third largest copper reserves with 100 million M, housing around 10 percent of global reserves. However, its output is much lower than the top two countries, with 810,000 MT mined in 2023. According to the Australian government, the nation's copper resources are largely concentrated at the Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold deposit in South Australia and at the Mount Isa copper-lead-zinc deposit in Queensland.

Democratic Republic of Congo

The DRC has seen its copper reserves increase dramatically in recent years to tie with Russia as of 2023. One major copper asset in the DRC is Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula project, a joint venture the company shares with partner Zijin Mining Group. As more projects are developed, the DRC is on track to eclipse Peru for the number two spot in copper production. In 2023, production in the African country reached 2.5 million MT

Russia

Russia has 80 million MT copper reserves, but in 2023 production was low, coming in at just 910,000 MT.One of the biggest copper operations in Russia is the Udokan deposit in Siberia, which is currently owned by Udokan Copper, previously named Baikal Mining Company. The company successfully launched copper concentrate production at the new plant in September 2023.

So, while the amount of copper we currently know about seems plentiful, it highlights the importance of sustainable mining practices, maximizing recycling, and potentially exploring alternative materials to complement copper in the future.

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

This week,the rupee experienced a significant downturn, hitting a new all-time low due to a substantial increase in local dollar demand amid the end phase of FY24. The shortened trading week saw limited changes thereafter. In a notable event, the rupee dropped to an unprecedented level of 83.45 against the dollar during Wednesday's closing minutes. However, a potential intervention from RBI helped the rupee recover. Looking ahead, RBI is scheduled to announce its first rate decision ofthe new fiscal year on 5April, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current status quo.As for the rupee's outlook, there is a projected trading range of 83.20 to 83.40 against dollar for the week ahead, with a slight inclination towards a modest upside bias. Globally, the euro is expected to close the first quarter of 2024 with a loss of approximately 2% against the dollar, primarily due to scaled-back expectations of a Fed rate cut since January. Consequently, the Dollar Index, which carries a 52% weightage of the euro, has risen by 2.9% so far in the March quarter. Market participants will closely monitor Friday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation data to gauge the market's direction for the following week. Any potential decline below the 90 handle may trigger heavy selling pressure on the euro/rupee pair. The British Pound remains vulnerable to potential downside following the Bank of England's recent dovish stance. In parallel, the GBPINR pair may experience significant weakness if it breaks below the 104.80 level next week. The Japanese Yen has also been in focus, hitting a new low in 2024 after a dovish stance from the Bank of Japan.

USDINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.10. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 83 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.5 levels.

One can Sell near 83.5 for the target of 83 with the stop loss of 83.75

GBPINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.42. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 48 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 106 levels.

One can Sell near 106 for the target of 105 with the stop loss of 106.5

EURINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.16. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.75 levels.

One can Sell near 90.75 for the target of 89.75 with the stop loss of 91.25

JPYINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 55.32. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 54.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 56 levels.

One can Sell near 56 for the target of 55.1 with the stop loss of 56.45

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IPO

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

PGIM India Mutual Fund launches retirement fund

PGIM India Mutual Fund has launched PGIM India Retirement Fund, an open-ended retirement solution-oriented scheme having a lock-in of five years or till retirement age, whichever is earlier. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on April 9. The lock-in period is also applicable when an investor moves out of the PGIM India Retirement Fund to any other scheme within the fund house, before the mandatory lock-in period of five years or retirement age, whichever is earlier. The transfer-out of the scheme shall be allowed subject to five-years lock-in period from the date of allotment of units or attainment of retirement age of 60 years, whichever is earlier, subject to exit load, if any. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide capital appreciation and income to investors in line with their retirement goals by investing in a mix of securities comprising equity, equity-related instruments, REITs and InvITs, and fixed-income securities. The scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE 500 Index (TRI). The scheme will be managed by Vinay Paharia, Puneet Pal. The minimum application amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum additional amount is Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The exit load will be nil. The scheme will invest 75-100% in equity and equity-related instruments, 0-25% in debt securities and money market instruments, including cash, Tri-Party Repo and equivalent. and units of mutual funds and -=10% in units issued by REITs and InVITs.

ICICI Prudential Commodities Fund to invest in Silver ETFs

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has changed the fundamental attribute of ICICI Prudential Commodities Fund. The scheme may also invest in units of Silver ETFs in addition to the existing asset classes. ICICI Prudential Commodities Fund invests in multiple asset classes like equity, debt, gold ETFs, and REITs among others. The changes will be effective from May 6, 2024. The fund house informed the unit holders through a notice-cum-addendum. After the proposed changes, the scheme will allocate 80-100% in equity and equity-related instruments of companies engaged in commodity and commodityrelated sectors, 0-20% in other equity and equity-related instruments, 0-20% in debt, units of debt mutual fund schemes and money market instruments, 0-10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs, and 0-20% in Gold ETFs/Silver ETFs/ other asset classes as may be permitted by Sebi from time to time (subject to applicable Sebi limits). The primary investment objective of the scheme is to generate long-term capital appreciation by creating a portfolio that is invested predominantly in equity and equity-related securities of companies engaged in commodity and commodity-related sectors. The scheme will invest in companies classified under 'Commodities' as per industry classification issued by AMFI from time to time. The fund house further mentioned that the existing unit holders (i.e. whose names appear in the register of unitholders as of the close of business hours on March 22, 2024) under the scheme are hereby given an option to exit, i.e. either redeem their investments or switch their investments to any other scheme of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund files draft document for multi-asset allocation fund

Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund has filed draft document with Sebi for a multi-asset allocation fund. Bajaj Finserv Multi Asset Allocation Fund will be an openended scheme, investing in equity, debt and money market instruments, gold ETFs, silver ETFs, exchange-traded commodity derivatives and in units of REITs and InvITs. The investment objective of the scheme will be to generate income from fixed-income instruments and generate capital appreciation for investors. The scheme will be benchmarked against 65% Nifty 50 TRI + 20% NIFTY Short Duration Debt Index + 10% Domestic Prices of Gold + 5% Domestic Prices of Silver. It will be managed by Nimesh Chandan and Sorbh Gupta (for equity investments), and Nimesh Chandan and Siddharth Chaudhary (for debt investments). The scheme will offer regular and direct plans with both growth and IDCW options.

  • If units are redeemed/switched out within 1 year from the date of allotment: if up to 30% of units allotted are redeemed/switched out - Nil, any redemption / switch-out of units in excess of 30% of units allotted - 1% of applicable NAV
  • If units purchased or switched in from another scheme are redeemed or switched out after one year from the date of allotment, no exit load is payable.

The minimum application amount for lumpsum investment will be Rs 500 and in multiples of Re 1. The minimum application amount for SIP will be Rs 500 and above with a minimum of six installments. The scheme will invest 35-80% in equity and equity-related investments, 10-55% in debt securities (including securitized debt and debt derivatives) and money market instruments including units of debt-oriented mutual fund schemes, 10-55% in Gold ETFs, Silver ETFs, Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives (ETCDs) and any other mode of investment in commodities as permitted by SEBI from time to time, and 0-10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

NEW FUND OFFER





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