In the week gone by, global stock markets were set for another tumultuous week after Western nations announced a harsh set of sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and as fighting further intensified. The Russian invasion comes at a time when investors are already worried about expensive market valuations and hawkish central banks. Economic risks are tempering expectations for how steeply the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. On the data front, US factory orders surged up by 1.4 percent in January following a revised 0.7 percent increase in December. US labor productivity surged by 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter after tumbling by 3.9 percent in the third quarter. While Eurozone producer prices grew sharply in January on surging energy prices. Producer price inflation advanced to 30.6 percent in January from 26.3 percent in December.
Back at home, domestic market witnessed volatile movements tracking rout in global equity markets and crude oil surging to multi-year highs amid escalating Ukraine crisis. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $21.2 billion in February from $17.9 billion in January, primarily driven by a sharp rise in oil imports and higher core imports, as the economy recovered from the third wave. According to the survey results from IHS Markit, India's manufacturing activity increased in February. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 54.9 in February from 54.0 in January. Going forward, we may continue to see weakness in the market given escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and surging crude and commodity prices. Besides, upcoming state election results and US Fed meeting over next two weeks is expected to add more volatility in the market. Rising prices of energy avenues such as crude and natural gas may hurt sentiments further.
On the commodity market front, historic highs and upper circuit trade was witnessed in commodities as sanctions flooded against Russia as war intensified. Failure of talk between Russia and Ukraine sparked commodities prices which raised fear of supply disruption. CRB hit eight years high and touched 307. At present, commodities are witnessing never seen volatility and all depends on the war situations and sanctions. If both of them intensify then we may see new record highs and vice a versa. Gold and silver will move in a range of 49000-54000 and 64000-70000 respectively. Crude can touch $125 if talks fail. Base metals will see buy on every dip. GDP Growth Rate of Euro Area, Balance of Trade of Canada, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index of Australia, GDP Growth Annualized Final of Japan, Inflation Rate of China and Mexico, New Yuan Loans of China, ECB Interest Rate Decision and ECB Press Conference, Core Inflation Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel and Inflation Rate of US, GDP of UK etc are many triggers for this week but the main trigger will remain the war situation between Ukraine and Russia.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
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Going ahead, focus on strengthening the balance sheet and building a strong deposit franchise, maintaining risk adjusted returns will benefit return ratios of the bank. The Bank has been one of the most consistent performers over the years, driven by best in class return ratios & margin profile. Moreover, the subsidiaries of the bank have recorded healthy growth during the quarter which does not require much capital and the bank continues to see a robust growth in the brand, the franchise and it’s positioning as a consolidated entity. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2123 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/Bvx of 5.21x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.407.48.
The company has emerged strongly from the impact of pandemic caused due to covid-19. All round improvement was seen in the first nine months of the current financial. The company is focused on expanding its business through asset light model and strengthened its balance sheet by reducing its debt and further committing it to achieve zero-debt in the long term. Going forward, the growth momentum is expected to continue on the back of expanding portfolio along with improvement in the RevPAR and occupancy level and upswing in domestic demand and recovery in international markets. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.236 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BVx of 5.85x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.40.34.
The stock closed at Rs 420.65 on 04th March, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 187.60 on 04th March, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 459.85 on 20th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 346.72
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in rising channel. Apart from this, stock has formed a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, the stock has given the pattern breakout along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same with positive bias so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 410-415 levels for the upside target of 460-470 levels with SL below 380 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 215.05 on 04th March, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 148.88 on 12th April, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 220.20 on 25th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 180.97
As we can see on charts that stock is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has registered all time high levels and closed around the same with positive bias and formed a long bullish candlestick on weekly charts which indicates bias are aggressive for the stock. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 210-212 levels for the upside target of 245-255 levels with SL below 190 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
For the fourth consecutive week, Indian markets ended in negative territory as Nifty slipped below 16300 mark on the back of Russia -Ukraine conflict. Sell off was seen across the sectors as Nifty ended the week with cut off more than 2%. Bank nifty witnessed even worst as the index ended the week with cut off more than 5%. From derivative front, option writers were seen adding open interest in far strikes which points towards more volatility in upcoming sessions. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 26.68 % while that for put options closed at 27.52. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 28.16% which was higher than the previous week. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.62. From technical front, Nifty has slipped back below its 50 days exponential moving average on daily charts which are placed at 16585 levels. Bank nifty has also formed a rounding top pattern and is likely to remain under pressure, with immediate support placed at 34000 levels below which further selling pressure can be seen in prices. For Nifty, 16000 level would act as a key psychological support below which index can fall further towards 15800 zone.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Apr) witnessed some recovery last week due to returning of physical demand for turmeric as arrivals are slow this season. In the coming week, we expect the prices to trade lower, if it breaks 9050 towards 8660 with major resistance at 10450. There are reports that the exports to European countries may be affected in coming weeks due to war situations between Russia and Ukraine. Currently, the prices are at same levels as compared to last year as new season turmeric hitting the market and the exports are normal this season. In the first 9- months (Apr-Dec) of FY 2021/22, exports down 20.7% to 1,16,400 tons compared to last year but higher by 8.8% compared with 5-year average. Jeera futures (Mar) corrected for the second consecutive week after the eight consecutive weeks of higher closing. We have seen profit booking as export demand might be affected due to war like situation. It is likely to correct more towards 19700 in coming week as new season jeera will also hit the market and peak arrivals will be commencing in next one-month time. The physical arrival of old and new crop in Unjha improved to around 14000/15000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) daily compared to less than 10000 bags last week. In the New Year, jeera prices have jumped more than 30% and currently prices are higher by 52% y/y on reports lower production due to less area and crop damage due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. In 2021/22, area under Jeera in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh ha Vs 4.69 lakh hac last year and according to 2nd advance estimates production expected to fall by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes Vs 4.0 lt last year. As per Govt. data, exports of jeera for Apr-Dec down by 24% Y/Y at 1.74 lakh tonnes compared to 2.30 lt last year. Dhaniya futures (Apr) recovered nicely after it slipped to 3-weeks low last week. We see good resistance at 11300 levels which is all-time high levels for the coriander while support is seen at 10700 levels. Currently prices are higher by 54% y/y and up 25% since January due to lower area as farmers have shifted to other crops due to low returns last year and expecting lesser production while the exports are normal due to higher prices. As per govt. data, exports have been down 13% during Apr-Dec period at 37,500 tonnes Vs 43,100 tonnes last year but 11% higher compared to 5-year average.
Gold slipped after breaching the level of 52000 due to an uptick in risk appetite and U.S. bond yields, while concerns over a supply crunch that may follow sanctions on Russia kept the price of auto-catalyst metal palladium near a sevenmonth peak. Wall Street gained and benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled interest rate hikes could start this month despite uncertainties surrounding the conflict in Ukraine. Although gold is considered a safe investment during such uncertainty, it is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Gold prices could go up despite a U.S. rate hike in March as "everything is dependent on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops." Russia's finance ministry said on Thursday that it was halting purchases of foreign currency and gold for this year as part of a suspension of parts of its fiscal rule relating to the use of extra oil and gas revenues. Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fourweek- old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $1,976.50. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,882.50. May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00 an ounce. Ahead in the week gold may eye towards 52900 and take support near 50700 whereas silver may trade in the range of 66000-69000.
Oil prices climbed to almost $120 a barrel, their highest in nearly a decade, as sanctions disrupted Russian oil sales but the rally lost some of its fizz on rising prospects for an Iran nuclear deal that could add extra supplies. Benchmark Brent rose to $119.84 a barrel, the highest since 2012, with additional support coming from data showing U.S. crude stockpiles had hit multi-year lows. Brent has jumped by more than a third in the past month. The contract's six-month spread hit a record high of more than $21 a barrel, indicating very tight supplies. U.S. crude hit $116.57, its peak since 2008, before retreating to $109.66. Prices slid, after an Iranian reporter tweeted of a breakthrough in talks to revive an Iran nuclear deal that could see Iranian barrels come back into the market. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iranian nuclear activity, visits Iran on Saturday - another move seen as raising prospects for a deal. Russia, which competes with Saudi Arabia for the title of biggest crude and refined oil products exporter, ships more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd), with about half going to Europe. Washington and its Western allies have imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, but the measures have so far stopped short of targeting Russian oil and gas exports. Ahead in the week, we may witness huge volatility in the crude market as prices are news driven and possible range would be 8000-8700. Natural Gas gaining support from surging global oil and gas prices as the Russia-Ukraine conflict stokes energy supply concerns. Ahead in the week price may trade with sideways to bullish bias and possible range would be 320-380.
Base metals may continue to trade with positive bias on concerns of supply disruptions due to war in Ukraine and low global stockpiles while west are imposing a slew of sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine. Sanctions prompted the world's three biggest container lines to temporarily suspend cargo shipments to and from Russia. As per reports, China's central bank may cut a key policy interest rate this month to support the economy. But cautious trade is advised as profit booking may emerge any time on cues of easing Russia-Ukraine crisis. Copper may trade in the range 800-860 levels. Copper stocks held by LME, Shanghai and Comex fell to just 200,000 tonnes in February, enough to cover only 3 days of global consumption. Adding to woes, the biggest producer Chile, recorded its lowest January output since 2011 with production sinking 15% compared to December and 7.5% from January 2021. Zinc can move towards 360 with support of 300 levels on lingering concerns of further supply disruptions due to prolonged high energy prices. Mounting sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine led to an international energy crunch, which, in turn, could spark additional supply disruptions of energy-intensive zinc. Lead can move in the range of 184-194 levels. Nickel may trade up to 2250 with support of 1950 levels. Along with supply concern from the world's third-largest supplier, robust demand from the stainless steel and battery and dwindling inventories lent further optimism to the metal bulls. The premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract rose to $685 a tonne, highest since 2007, indicating tightness in nearby supplies. Aluminum may move towards 330 with support of 280 on persisting supply concern.
Cotton futures (Mar) witnessed some recovery last week after it close lower for consecutive two weeks. The trend is positive as the supplies outpace demand. Currently resistance is at 37820 and support at 36120. The domestic prices are high 67% y/y and jumped about 9.7% in the New Year due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. The CAI in its latest release has reduced its cotton output for the 2021-22 by 5.00 lakh bales to 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. The consumption also reduced by 5 lakh bales to 340 lakh bales while exports and import figures are unchanged at 15 and 45 lakh bales respectively. In the second advance estimates, govt has cut cotton production in the country to 340 lakh bales from 362 lakh bales in 1st estimate. In its latest February report, the USDA cut its forecast for global cotton production in 2021-22 to 120.15 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 120.96 million bales projected in Jan 2022. World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are now 700,000 bales lower, due to 800,000-bale drop in production. India’s crop is reduced by 500,000 bales as a slow pace for market arrivals indicates weaker than expected yields. Guar seed futures (Mar) witnessed some recovery last week after it slipped to 3-month low prices mainly on the lower level buying. Now the support is seen at 5710. Currently, prices are up 56.2% y/y on reports of weakest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand due to higher crude oil prices. The oil rig count is also higher by about 248 compared to last year. In Dec, Guar gum exports are higher by 34.3% y/y at 32420 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Dec) are up by 42.4% y/y at 2.41 lakh tonnes. Higher crude oil prices and increase in rig count in the US is supporting guar prices. Castor Seed (Mar) surged higher last week to reached alltime high of 7460 on fresh buying buy the market participants. We expect it to trade in a range 7100-7400 levels with positive bias. Currently castor prices are higher by 60% y/y, as production of castor expected to be lowest in last three years. As per second advance estimates, castor output is pegged at 15.08 lakh tonnes, down about 8.5% from last year production. Gujarat agriculture department’s second advance estimate cut castor seed production by 1 lakh tonnes to 13.02 lt compared 14 lt in the first estimate. Last year, production was 13.45 lt. Castor oil exports during Apr-Dec is at par with the last year export volume at 5.15 lakh tonnes. However, castor meal exports down 4.64% during the same period.
LEAD MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 187.80 on 03rd Mar 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 193.00 on 19th Jan’2022 and a low of Rs. 180.90 on 19th Jan’2022. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 186.72. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.782.
One can sell near Rs. 188 for a target of Rs. 182 with the stop loss of 192.
ALUMINIUM MCX (MAR) contract was closed at Rs. 303.15 on 03rd Mar’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 311.65 on 04th Mar’2022 and a low of Rs. 240.00 on 02nd Feb’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 271.98. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 87.010.
One can buy near Rs. 300 for a target of Rs. 320 with the stop loss of Rs 290.
DHANIYA NCDEX (APR)contract closed at Rs. 10988.00 on 03rd Mar’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 11300.00 on 24th Feb’2022 and a low of Rs. 7202.00 on 11th Aug’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 10799.90. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.058.
One can sell near Rs. 11200 for a target of Rs. 10400 with the stop loss of Rs. 11600.
Commodities …now are making multiyear or record highs as sanctions flooded against Russia and war intensified. Failure of talk between Russia and Ukraine sparked commodities prices which raised fear of supply disruption. Many base metals and crude made new highs in MCX. Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $119 and MCX 8817 a barrel, as trade disruption and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries while U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows. At the same time, OPEC and their allies including Russia have decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude. The market was reacting to the latest round of sanctions by Washington on Russia's oil refining sector that raised concerns that Russian oil and gas exports could be targeted next. So far, it has stopped short of targeting Russia's oil and gas exports as the Biden administration weighs the impacts on global oil markets and U.S. energy prices. Base metals were on fire. Nickel industry sources said shipping lines halting traffic to and from Russia could mean nickel supplies to global customers are disrupted. Russia supplies the world with around 10% of global supplies of nickel used to make stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicle. Aluminium prices bolted to a fresh record peak 298.65 as financial sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine fuelled worries about supplies from Rusal, while worries about shipping disruptions boosted nickel. Sanctions by Western nations have prompted the world's three biggest container lines to suspend cargo shipments to and from Russia at a time when aluminium inventories are low. Bullion appreciated for nonstop forth week on fall in equity and it ignored the signal of Fed in which they indicated about aggressive interest rate hikes. Gold and silver touched 52070 and 67776 respectively.
Castor saw magical jump more than 24% this year since Jan 2022 due to its higher demand and lower production estimates. As per second advance estimates, castor output is pegged at 15.08 lakh tonnes, down about 8.5% from last year production. Cotton saw fresh buying due to steady demand from the mills at higher prices. The CAI in its latest release has reduced its cotton output for the 2021-22 by 5.00 lakh bales to 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. Turmeric prices stayed steady in the physical in futures markets due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In the New Year, jeera prices have jumped more than 29.1% and currently prices are higher by 48.7% y/y on reports lower production due to less area and crop damage due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Energy has traditionally played an important role in global geopolitics. Every international order in modern history has been determined by energy resources. If we look at history, whenever geopolitical tensions have surfaced, crude oil prices have increased.
Since the First World War, crude oil has undoubtedly been a cornerstone of geopolitics on a global scale. Since the late 20th century, control of oil resources has played a central role in several wars, such as the Arab-Israel War (1973-74), the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), the Gulf War (1990–1991), the Iraq War. (2003), civil war in the Arab world and conflict in Libya (2011) and Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi Arabia (2019 and 2021). From 1948 to the late 1960s, crude oil prices ranged between $2.50 and $3.00. The price of oil rose from $2.50 in 1948 to about $3.00 in 1957.
1973-74: Arab-Israel War
Price sensitivity to geopolitical tensions was fully exposed in 1973-74. In 1972, the
price of crude oil was less than $3.50 a barrel. In October 1973, with Syria and
Egypt attacking Israel, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) banned oil exports to countries that supported Israel. Because of this, by
the end of 1974, the price of oil had quadrupled to over $12.00.
Iran and Iraq crisis
In 1979 and 1980, the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the subsequent Iran–Iraq War
caused crude oil prices to rebound, and the price of oil rose from $14 in 1978 to
$55 a barrel in 1981.
Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War
Oil prices began to rise again in 1990 due to low production amid uncertainty
surrounding the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War. After Iraq's
invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, the spot price rose sharply. In mid-October
1990, the spot price reached $45 a barrel.
US-Iraq War
The Iraq War began on 20 March 2003. As the war began, prices rose by about 7%
and exceeded $50 a barrel.
Civil war in the Arab world and conflict in Libya
This was called the Arab Spring, which began in December 2010. During this Brent
crude oil prices rose to about $ 92 per barrel. An increase of 28% by the end of the first
three months of 2011. In March 2011, rebels attacked oil terminals in Libya, causing
the price of Brent crude to exceed $115 and Sweet crude to the level of $100.
Houthi rebels attack Saudi Arabia's oil facilities
In September 2019, oil prices rose as tensions rose after Yemen's Houthi rebels
attacked Saudi Arabia's oil facilities and oil tankers in the Gulf with ballistic
missiles and drones.
Russia-Ukraine crisis Currently, crude oil prices in the world market rose above $110 a barrel due to supply disruptions after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine and heightened geo-political tension. Russia is the world's second - largest oil producer, exporting crude mainly to European refineries, but the fears of far-reaching effects on energy markets given Russia's role in the world's largest oil and gas-producing countries, US president Joe Biden said that he currently has no plans to impose sanctions on Russia's energy exports. But oil exports from Russia have been completely disrupted due to restrictions on the payment system or any payment in dollars to Russia.
Overall, there are other factors leading to price increases—OPEC's struggle to increase output, global economic growth, interest rates—but during geopolitical tensions, the risk premium becomes an important factor.
The Indian rupee weakened past the 76 per dollar this week, as the deepening crisis in Ukraine amid heightened investor anxiety after reports that Russian forces had attacked a nuclear plant in Ukraine. The rupee fell to the lowest level to 76.20 since mid-December 17. Inevitably Rupee already lost nearly 1.50% in first two months of this calendar year. Apparently Brent oil surpassing $110 is a big headwind while possible delay in LIC IPO flows in the midst of Russia-Ukraine crisis will add another problematic factor for rupee as well. Rupee recorded more than 2% yearly gains in last FY over the period of 5 years amid supported capital flows came from bulk liquidity in the global markets. From the majors, Eurusd plunged below 1.1020 for the first time since April 2020 after euro zone economy faces the big catastrophe in the wake of Russia-Ukraine crisis. Europe being the largest importers of Russian gas supply and drop in those supplies already pushing the euro zone inflation higher quite above 5% on a year to year basis. We think euro is likely to stay below 1.10 vs dollar in coming days while EURINR has the scope to fall towards 83.00 on spot as well. While we don't expect substantial fall in GBPINR as rupee weakness will prevent major downside in Sterling-Rupee pairs subject to how the Russia-Ukraine crisis evolves in next week.
USD/INR (MAR) contract closed at 76.1475 on 03-Mar-22. The contract made its high of 76.1650 on 03-Mar-22 and a low of 75.5025 on 28 Feb-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 75.3750.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.23.One can buy at 76.00 for the target of 77.00 with the stop loss of 75.50.
GBP/INR (MAR) contract closed at 101.8175 on 03-Mar-22. The contract made its high of 100.8900 on 03-Mar-22 and a low of 100.8800 on 02-Mar-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.5590.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.50. One can sell at 102.00 for a target of 101.00 with the stop loss of 102.50.
| 03rd MAR | Commodity prices soar to highest level since 2008 over Russia supply fears |
| 03rd MAR | Russia captures first major city in Ukraine |
| 03rd MAR | Turkish inflation pushes past 54% as food and energy prices soar |
| 02nd MAR | Powell backs quarter-point rate rise in March despite Ukraine war effects |
| 02nd MAR | Euro zone inflation hits record 5.8% as Ukraine war adds to price pressures |
| 01st MAR | UK public finances vulnerable to higher inflation, says Sunak |
| 28th FEB | US bans transactions with Russian central bank |
| 28th FEB | Russia doubles interest rates as rouble plunges |
EUR/INR (MAR) contract closed at 84.4900 on 03-Mar-22. The contract made its high of 84.9175 on 28-Feb-22 and a low of 84.2125 on 02-Feb-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 84.8320.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.87. One can sell at 84.50 for a target of 83.50 with the stop loss of 85.00.
JPY/INR (MAR)) contract closed at 65.7900 on 03-Mar-22. The contract made its high of 66.1875 on 02-Mar-22 and a low of 65.3900 on 28-Feb-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 65.4300.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.47. One can buy at 65.80 for a target of 66.80 with the stop loss of 65.30.
Raymond-promoted JK Files & Engineering and Elin Electronics have received capital markets regulator Sebi's go ahead to raise funds through their initial public offerings (IPOs). JK Files & Engineering and Elin Electronics are looking to raise Rs 800 crore and Rs 760 crore, respectively, through initial share sales. Going by the draft papers, JK Files & Engineering's public issue is entirely an offer of sale (OFS) of equity shares of Rs 800 crore by promoter Raymond Ltd. At present, Raymond, the country's leading player in suiting and shirting, holds 100 per cent stake in the company. JK Files & Engineering is engaged in the manufacturing of precision engineered components for tools and hardware (files and drills) and marketing of hand tools, power tool accessories and power tool machines and manufacturing of auto components and engineering products -- ring gears, flexplates and water pump bearings. As per the draft papers, the public issue of Elin Electronics consists of fresh issue of shares aggregating up to Rs 175 crore, and an offer for sale of up to Rs 585 crore by promoters. As part of the OFS, existing shareholders will sell shares of Rs 345.60 crore and promoters will divest shares worth Rs 239.4 crore. Proceeds from the fresh issue will be used to the extent of Rs 80 crore to repay/prepay debt, Rs 48.97 crore for funding capital expenditure for upgrading and expansion of existing plants in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh and Verna, Goa besides general corporate purposes. The Delhi-based Elin is a leading electronics manufacturing services (EMS) manufacturer of end-to end product solutions for major brands of lighting, fans, and small/ kitchen appliances in India, and leading fractional horsepower motors manufacturers in India.
Elin Electronics Limited (EEL) has received approval from capital markets regulator Sebi to launch its Rs 760 crore initial public offering (IPO). Elin Electronics is an electronics manufacturing services company, based in the national capital. The company had filed its DRHP with Sebi in November 2021. The company's 760 crore IPO consists of fresh issue aggregating to Rs 175 crore and an offer for sale of up to Rs 585 crore from existing shareholders and promoters of the company. The face value of shares is Rs 5 apiece. As a part of the OFS, existing shareholders will sell shares to the tune of Rs 345.60 crore and promoters will sell shares worth Rs 239.4 crore. The net proceeds from the fresh issue will be used to prepay debt worth Rs 80 crore, funding capital expenditure for upgrading and expansion of existing plants for up to Rs 49 crore, besides general corporate purposes. Elin offers electronic manufacturing Services (EMS), including universal and Induction Motors, tools, moulds, dies and domestic kitchen appliances, personal care products, lighting products and automotive Components. The company stands different from the traditional EMS companies given its backward integrated product and solutions suite. Its focus is on component fabrication, sourcing and system assembly.
Bikaji Foods International Ltd has filed a draft papers with Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds via initial public offering. The Initial public offering (IPO) consists of a pure offer for sale of upto 29.37 million shares by its existing promoters and shareholders. The OFS comprises of upto 2.5 million shares each by Shiv Ratan Agarwal and Deepak Agarwal. upto 12.11 million shares by India 2020 Maharaja Ltd, 3.11 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund, upto 2 million shares by IILF Special Opportunities FUnd Series 2, upto 0.97 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund Series 3, upto 2.75 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund Series 4, upto 2.16 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund Series 5 and upto 1.22 million shares by Avendus Future Leaders Fund I. JM Financial, Axis Capital, IIFL Securities, Intensive Fiscal Services and Kotak Mahindra Capital are the lead managers to the issue. Bikaji is one of India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands with an international footprint, selling Indian snacks and sweets, and are among the fastest growing companies in the Indian organised snacks market. The firm is the largest manufacturer of Bikaneri bhujia, packaged rasgulla, soan papdi and gulab jamun with annual production of 26,690 tonnes, 24,000 tonnes, 23,040 tonnes and 12,000 tonnes respectively in fiscal year 2021.The firm was the second largest manufacturer of handmade papads with an annual production capacity of 9,000 tonnes.
India's cabinet approved on Saturday a policy amendment allowing foreign direct investment of up to 20% in Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC), a government source said, a change aimed at easing the listing of the state-run insurer. India's biggest insurance company plans to float a stake of 5% to raise about $8 billion next month for the south Asian nation's largest initial public offering (IPO) by far. The amendment would allow foreign direct investors to buy up to 20% of LIC's shares through an automatic route, said the government source, who spoke on condition of anonymity after the cabinet meeting. Under current rules, foreign investment is not allowed in the LIC, governed by the special parliament act, while 74% foreign direct investment is allowed in other private insurance companies. The amendment would allow the government to raise the foreign direct investment limit in the LIC up to 20%, on par with the rule for state-run banks, the government source said.
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Motilal Oswal AMC has launched Low Volatility factor-based ETF and Index Fund – Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Low Volatility ETF and Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Low Volatility Index Fund. These are open-ended schemes replicating/tracking the S&P BSE Low Volatility Total Return Index. The low volatility strategy involves buying stocks which have higher stability in price movements based on past returns. The NFOs of Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Low Volatility ETF and Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Low Volatility Index Fund will close for subscription on March 16. According to the fund house, the S&P BSE Low Volatility Index selects 30 least volatile companies as defined in index methodology. The constituents need to be part of S&P BSE Large-MidCap Index with a minimum listing history of one year. The maximum weight of stock is capped at 5% and the index gets rebalanced semi-annually in March and September.
Edelweiss Mutual Fund has announced the launch of a new target maturity index fund - Edelweiss Crisil PSU plus SDL 50:50 Oct 2025 Index Fund. This index fund will invest in AAA rated PSU Bonds as well as State Development Loans (SDL). This is an open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund that will track CRISIL [IBX] 50:50 PSU + SDL Index – October 2025. The NFO will be open for subscription between 3rd to 8th March. This open-ended Target Maturity Index Fund will predominantly invest in the constituents of Crisil [IBX] 50:50 PSU + SDL Index – Oct 2025. The fund will have a defined maturity date of 31st October 2025. According to the fund house, at maturity, investors will get back their investment proceeds. 100% of the fund’s proceeds are invested in AAA rated PSU bonds and State Development Loans (SDL) maturing within six months prior to maturity date of scheme. Taxed at 20% post-indexation, this fund will be more tax efficient as compared to traditional avenues. “After the successful foray into passive fixed income space with the launch of Edelweiss Nifty PSU Bond Plus SDL Index Fund – 2026 in March-21, we are pleased to announce the third maturity in a series – Edelweiss Crisil PSU Plus SDL 50:50 Oct 2025 Index Fund. Our investors & partners have appreciated the simplicity, transparency, liquidity and low cost of our fixed income passive funds and we strive to deliver more in future and continue our leadership position. These series of target maturity index funds provide safety, stability, and diversification in the investment portfolio and suit the needs of many investors who today invest in Fixed Deposits,” said Radhika Gupta, MD & CEO, Edelweiss Asset Management Limited.
Saurabh Jain has reigned from Sachin Bansal-backed Navi Mutual Fund as managing director and chief executive officer, effective 28 February. Jain, who took over as MD & CEO of Navi Mutual Fund in February last year, believed in reducing the cost of investments for investors with the help of technology, in line with the fund house's mission. He had served as the chief of staff to Sachin Bansal from April 2020 to February 2021. Before moving to Navi, Jain worked as assistant vice president - business projects at Swiggy. He was also inducted as one of the members of the advisory committee on mutual funds, SEBI in December 2021.
LIC Mutual Fund on March 1 announced the appointment of TS Ramakrishnan as its managing director and chief executive officer. Ramakrishnan, who succeeds Dinesh Pangtey, has spent more than 34 years at LIC, its subsidiaries and associate companies. He has served in various positions including, those of regional manager pension group and Scheme in the South Central Zone (Hyderabad) and senior division manager in charge at Delhi 1 & 2. " Ramakrishnan comes on board at an exciting phase of the journey of consolidating our position in the market. Our objective is to deepen our presence across Tier II, III cities to gain retail penetration,” Nityanand Prabhu, Director and Business Head at LICMF, said. Before joining LIC Mutual Fund, Ramakrishnan was the Regional Manager-Western Region at LIC Housing Finance Ltd (LICHFL) and subsequently transferred to General Manager LICHFL. He has worked across four zones of LIC, including a stint at ZTC Bhopal as Vice Principal.
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