In the week gone by, global markets rallied as investors cheered the Federal Reserve's latest signals on monetary policy, which suggested the central bank was warming to a near-term policy adjustment as the economy improved further. The Federal Reserve's upbeat tone on the economic recovery, and suggestion that the timing of the tapering process of its asset purchase program would come largely inline with market expectations, continued to boost the sentiments of the investors. Meanwhile, the BoE's said in a statement that policymakers voted to hold its key borrowing cost at 0.1 percent and maintained its stimulus at almost £900 billion ($1.2 trillion, 1.0 trillion euros). The BoE also warned that annual inflation was now expected to breach 4.0 percent -- more than double its target level -- in the fourth quarter as a result of high energy and goods prices. Undoubtedly, Central banks have embarked on huge purchases of commercial bonds, resulting in massive cash amounts swirling around the world economy. China's Evergrande issue eased with the injection of cash by the Chinese central bank into the banking system and calmed investors' nervousness that spooked markets a couple of days back. Evergrande agreed to settle interest payments on a domestic bond temporarily soothing fears of an imminent contagion from the debt-laden property developer. However, investors continued to remain on the edge awaiting clarity on the Chinese economy.
Back at home, domestic market rallied on positive factors like unlocking, strong growth in the real estate sector, good monsoon, positive developments in government policy, and investor's confidence. The Nifty Realty index gained the most as the developers reported that buying remains sustained ahead of the festive season and after a reduction in interest rates by several banks on home loans. To note, Godrej Properties has sold 340 homes with an area of more than half a million square feet on the first day of launch making this one of the most successful launches in India in recent times. The growth momentum in the real estate sector is boosting the sentiment because it has a ripple effect on multiple sectors. Moreover, controlled Covid cases, with the increased pace of vaccination across the country and a slew of reforms and measures by the government, clearly lifted sentiments. It is expected that with improvement in economic activity & the optimism around the capex cycle revival, the earnings trajectory for India Inc will naturally get a big boost. Going forward market will take direction from Inflow and outflow of Foreign as well as domestic institutional fund, crude oil prices and Rupee movement amid global factors.
On the commodity market front, it was a shaky week for commodities and almost all saw both side wild swings. Market concentrated on Fed meet and Evergrande issue throughout the week. Fed said that it would likely to begin asset tapering within 2021 and hike interest rates in 2022. And this gave pressure to bullion prices. Gold may trade in a range of 45500-47200 levels. Natural gas may see further upside on fresh buying. Demand is surging ahead of the winter heating season, but gas stocks are at multi-year lows, and supply cannot catch up with demand. Base metals may see marginal rise. Risk sentiment was also supported by the People's Bank of China injecting more liquidity into the market to replace certain expiring loans. Crude has seen sharp upside and bullish trend will continue; however one should buy on dips as rally is bit overstretched now. Federal Election, Unemployment Rate and GfK Consumer Confidence of Germany, Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final and CB Consumer Confidence of US, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, GDP Growth Rate YoY of UK, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, etc are many important triggers scheduled this week for the market which may impact commodities prices.
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stood at 70%, as compared to 75% as at 30th June 2020 and 72% as at 31st March 2021.
The bank has continued to strengthen the five focus areas as part of the GPS strategy which it started 2 years back – granular and risk calibrated growth, strengthening the balance sheet, technology and digital leadership, focus on profitability and One Axis. The bank has made significant strides in each of these areas and the bank is ready to get on to the next cycle of GPS strategy. Moreover, it also plans to scale up and accelerate growth in the wholesale banking business. Its strategy going forward is to build a ‘digital bank’ and be a leader in the digital payments space. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.925 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on an expected P/Bvx 2.50 and FY22 (BVPS) of Rs.369.95.
get 11 million paying direct paying sub base (25% of Tamil households). The management of the company has indicated that currently focus is on movie production.
The company is doing well and according to the management, Advertisement revenue recovery is expected to be gradual and may see some uptick during the upcoming festival season. The company has been investing in the OTT business and through tie-ups, limiting full monetisation potential. Moreover, Sun TV's dominant position in the south Indian market and regular expansion of its content offerings support the company to give good opportunity to scale up margins over the coming financial years. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.589 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one average P/Ex of 14.56x and FY22 EPS (Earning per Share) of Rs.40.48.
The stock closed at Rs 132.25 on 24th September, 2021. It made a 52-week low at Rs 41.20 on 24th September, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 153.00 on 23rd June, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 109.26.
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. From past few weeks stock was consolidated in narrow range and formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts which is bullish in nature. Last week the stock has given the pattern breakout along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same so follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 140-141 levels for the upside target of 160-164 levels with SL below 132 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 2451.95 on 24th September, 2021. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1390.00 on 25th September, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2477.70 on 24th September, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2012.80.
As we can see on charts that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of rising channel on weekly charts which is considered to be bullish. Last week, the stock has given the channel breakout with high volumes and decisively holds the high levels and also managed to close above the breakout levels. On the technical indicators front, RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock so one can initiate long in the range of 2415-2430 levels for the upside target of 2600- 2640 levels with SL below 2300 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Another week of stunner rally was witnessed by Indian markets in the week gone by as Nifty indices scaled to its record highs and closed above 17800 mark for the first time. Banking, financials, reality and IT stocks supported the big up move in markets. Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 14.78 % while that for put options closed at 15.20%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 16.60%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.31. From derivative front call writers at 17600 strike triggered sharp short covering while put writers added hefty open interest at 17700 strike. In upcoming days, we expect market to remain on volatile path as we are approaching towards expiry of September series contract. However bias is likely to remain in favour of bulls and any dip into the prices should be used to create fresh longs. On higher side, now 18000 levels would act as a key psychological resistance for Nifty.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Oct) closed with losses last week due to expectation of good production prospects along with steady demand. We expect turmeric to trade lower towards 6700 levels with immediate resistance at 7400 levels. Currently, turmeric crop is in good condition and estimate of higher production is weighing on prices. Moreover, as season is heading towards end farmers beginning to unload their old stocks. The exports have been lower and the availability is higher. In the first 7-months of 2021, exports were down 16% to 90133 tonnes Vs last year but higher by about 10% compared to 5-year average. Jeera futures (Oct) recover from the 5-week lows to close little higher for the week. Currently from spice millers has slowed their purchases at higher prices and simultaneously we observe lesser arrivals at lower prices. We expect it to trade with positive bias but in a range 14000 – 14800. Sufficient stocks with the traders and farmers is keeping prices in a range. The forecast of normal rains in Western region during Sep-Nov is going to support jeera cultivation in Gujrat. In 2021 (Jan-Jul), country exported 1.75 lakh tonnes (lt) of jeera compared to 1.67 lt last year same time. Dhaniya futures (Oct) closed lower for the second consecutive week. We expect it to trade lower towards 7000 levels with resistance at 7980. Currently the demand is normal and good rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan is expected to help rabi crop in coming season. Spot coriander prices remained subdued in Rajasthan's Jaipur, Baran and Ramganj mandis. Coriander Badami and Coriander Eagle closed lower in Ramganj mandi. Exports of coriander down 10% during Apr-Jul period to 17830 tonnes Vs 19820 tonnes last year but 17.7% higher compared to 5-year average for the period.
Gold prices set for straight 3 weekly fall the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled easing its monthly bond purchases by next year and a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike, which could increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion. In its policy statement, the U.S. central bank said it could start paring bond purchases as soon as November and those halves of the Fed officials were ready to raise interest rates next year in response to inflation. Gold is often considered a hedge against higher inflation, but a Fed rate hike would dull bullion’s appeal. The dollar index hit a one-month high, diminishing gold’s appeal for those holding other currencies. Fears of imminent contagion from China Evergrande’s debt crisis were temporarily soothed on Wednesday after the property developer agreed to settle interest payments on a domestic bond, while the Chinese central bank injected cash into the banking system. With global central banks pretty much committing now to a dynamic taper that brings forward rate hikes and that should ultimately be negative for gold. The Bank of England said on Thursday the case for higher interest rates “appeared to have strengthened.” Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.8% to 992.65 tonnes on Thursday from 1,000.79 tonnes. Silver was up 1.2% for the week so far. Ahead in the week Gold on COMEX may trade with bearish bias and range would be $1710-$1790 and silver may trade in the range of $21.70-$22.96. Gold on MCX trade with bearish bias where sell on rise is advised where support is seen near 45200 and resistance near 47300. Trading range for silver is 58000-63000.
Soybean futures (Oct) recovering from the lower levels last week on fear of production loss in soybean on extended monsoon. It is expected to higher towards 6500, if it breaks resistance of 6200 levels. Now support is at 5800 levels . As per GLOBOIL conference updates, India's soybean production is estimated at 10 million tonnes compared to 8.9 million tonnes last year but still weather is crucial as peak harvesting season is nearing. New season soybean has started reaching the mandis and bulk buyers are cautious for aggressive buying before the arrival pressure increases. RM Seed futures (Oct) traded higher last week due to continuous physical demand. We expect to trade in a range 8200 – 9000 with resistance at 8850 and support at 8350. Currently prices are higher close to 60% y/y due to lower stocks and good retail demand for mustard oil. Mustard fundamentals are strong due to deficient stocks and peak consumption season. According to market sources, mustards stocks dwindle to 30 Lakh tonnes as new arrival season is 5 months away. Edible oil prices trade positively last week. Higher tariff value and increase in festive demand is supporting the prices. India's palm oil imports in 2021/22 are likely to drop 9% from a year earlier on a rise in domestic supplies as farmers expand the area planted with oilseeds in response to record high prices. Malaysian palm oil up more than 5% last week supported by slowing production, higher export demand and a recovery in rival soyoil prices. Soyoil prices on the CBOT increase by 1.6% in last week. Ref Soy oil futures (Oct) likely to trade positively towards 1350 with support at 1300 levels while CPO futures (Sep) likely to trade with some positive bias towards 1170 with resistance at 1135 and support at 1115.
Crude oil rises with Brent crude touching its highest level in more than two months, supported by growing fuel demand and a draw in U.S. crude inventories as production remained hampered in the Gulf of Mexico after two hurricanes. Supply concerns had funds taking longer positions Brent crude rose over 6.50%, at $77.25 a barrel, its highest price since mid-July. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose over 4.50%, to $73.30 a barrel. In addition to this OPEC and its allies have struggled to raise output after years of under-investment or delays to maintenance work during the pandemic. Iraq's oil minister said OPEC+ was working to keep crude close to $70 per barrel as the global economy recovers. The group will meet on Oct. 4. The dollar, which usually has an inverse relationship with commodities prices, eased from a onemonth high after the Federal Reserve signalled it would soon start reducing its monthly bond purchases and set the stage for higher interest rates next year, while leaving room to slow things if needed. The U.S. central bank gave advance notice of its tapering intention, thereby confirming its economic optimism, which ultimately points to robust U.S. oil demand. Ahead in the week crude prices may trade with positive bias in the range of 5190-5700. Natural gas prices have taken the healthy correction after a fiery rally because of weak short-term demand due to mild weather conditions. The weather is expected to remain warmer than average throughout most of the United States during the next two weeks. Warm weather should increase cooling demand during a period when the weather is expected to become milder. Ahead in the week, price may trade with higher volatility and range would be 355-390 levels.
Cotton futures (Oct) jumped 1.5% due to fear of cotton production loss due to rains during the harvesting season. We expect prices to trade higher towards 26300 levels with good support at 25600 levels. There is news on pink boll worm attack in the Punjab and excessive rains in cotton area of Gujarat and Maharashtra damaging the crop ready for harvesting. Recent heavy rains also delay the cotton harvesting. However, sufficient stocks with the spinners and steady new season cotton arrivals in north India may keep the prices under control. US cotton prices increase due to 21% cotton export figures for week ending Sep 16. Guar seed futures (Oct) slipped to 4-week low but recover to close higher this week. We expect it trade with negative bias towards 5300 levels with resistance at 6150 levels. Good rains forecast in September may revive guar production to some extent. The area under guarseed in Rajasthan till August end is 21 lakh hac Vs 25 lakh hac last year will lower production for the 4th consecutive year. Castor Seed (Oct) recovered form 4-week low prices last week due to persistent export demand for castor oil. We expect it to trade higher towards 6550 levels with good support at 6100 and resistance at 6290 levels. SEA release castor oil export data for Jul and Aug 2021 which were lower compared to last year but for Apr-Aug period exports are higher at 3.2 lakh tonnes Vs 2.9 lt last year despite higher export prices. The late monsoon rains in September is beneficial for castor area in Gujarat but excessive rains in some area may affect late sown castor crop in the region. Till 20th Sep, castor seed is sown in more 94% of normal area and reached 6 lakh ha Vs 5.80 lh last year.
Base metals may trade with positive bias on relief that China’s debt-burdened Evergrande would pay interest on a domestic bond, easing fears the property giant’s troubles might hit the global economy. But profit booking at higher level cannot be denied as looming U.S. rate hikes may cap gains. Although Evergrande agreed to settle interest payments on a domestic bond, while the Chinese central bank injected cash into the banking system but it temporarily soothing fears of imminent contagion from the debt-laden property developer. Copper may trade in the range 700-735 levels. As per ICSG, world refined copper production increased by about 3.2% while refined copper usage increased by 3.8% in the first half of 2021. A Chilean court handed a reprieve to BHP’s Cerro Colorado copper mine, agreeing to suspend a ban on it pumping water from an aquifer for 90 days. Zinc can move in the range of 260- 275. Nyrstar is curtailing production at a major zinc smelter in the Netherlands during peak times due to soaring electricity costs. Lead can move in the range of 186-196. Nickel may trade in the range of 1440-1520. The Indonesian Investment Ministry is mulling over plans to ban or restrict the export of processed nickel products with less than 70 percent nickel content. Aluminum may move in the range of 228-242 levels. Due to temporary power crunch and structural energy restrictions linked to Beijing’s decarbonisation goals the smelter’s capacity reduced to some 2.33 million tonnes per year. Many of the cutbacks will last through the end of the year with major producers such as Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd and Yunnan Aluminium downgrading production guidance.
ZINC MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 255.90 on 23rd Sep’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 257.05 on 24th Sep’2021 and a low of Rs. 239.90 on 01st Sep’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 250.58. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.095.
One can buy near Rs. 252 for a target of Rs. 262 with the stop loss of 247.
GOLD MCX (OCT) contract closed at Rs. 46056.00 on 23rd Sep’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 50040.00 on 02nd Jun’2021 and a low of Rs. 45662.00 on 10th Aug’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 46553.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.419.
One can sell below Rs. 45800 for a target of Rs. 44700 with the stop loss of Rs. 46400.
TURMERIC NCDEX (OCT) contract was closed at Rs. 7100.00 on 23rd Sep’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 8862.00 on 25th Aug’2021 and a low of Rs. 7074.00 on 23rd Sep’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7506.74. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.683.
One can buy near Rs. 7100 for a target of Rs. 7500 with the stop loss of Rs 6900.
It was a shaky week for commodities in which most of them saw both side wild swings. Market concentrated on Fed meet and Evergrande issue throughout the week. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cleared the way to reduce its monthly bond purchases "soon" and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected, with half of the 18 U.S. central bank policymakers projecting borrowing costs will need to rise in 2022. The dollar was up Asia hitting its highest level in a month for the same reason. Commodities market found some support from the news that China Evergrande said it would make a bond interest payment of 232 million yuan, or the equivalent of about $35.9 million. However, the problem is bigger and we may see some negative impact in days to come. Base metals prices saw fall earlier on Evergrande news but the risk appetite improved again on bond interest payment of 232-million-yuan announcement. Risk sentiment was also supported by the People's Bank of China injecting more liquidity into the market to replace certain expiring loans. Zinc and aluminum closed in up whereas lead was in a range. Copper traded weak. Nickel saw some upside. According to Bloomberg News, the Indonesian government may impose restrictions on nickel exports, restricting the export of nickel products with a content of less than 40%. The global world refined copper market showed a deficit of 90,000 tonnes in June, compared with a surplus of 4,000 tonnes in the prior month, data showed. Energy counter was volatile; crude prices surged while natural gas prices saw sharp profit booking. In two weeks, natural gas prices fell from 414 to 355 on lower side on improved supply in gulf and profit booking from the higher side. The black liquid also benefitted from increasing investor risk appetite as concerns that China Evergrande Group would default on its loans and impact the second-largest economy somewhat eased amid sharp dropdown in crude inventories. Bullion counter saw fall as demand shifted to riskier asset.
Soybean future corrected amid easing concern over U.S. exports & the global economy. Most export terminals at the U.S. Gulf have resumed loadings to some extent & power has been restored to nearly all facilities, Reuters reported. India's oil imports rose to a four-month high of about 4.2 million barrels per day in August. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-20 rose between 38% and 43% from the same period in the prior month, data from cargo surveyors showed on Monday. However, shipments slowed compared with the Sept. 1-15 period. Castor saw a drop then recovered some of its losses on fresh buying. Guar recovered on better export numbers.
Global shipping are viewed as a barometer for the global economic climate. The global shipping industry is getting its biggest payday since 2008 as the combination of booming demand for goods and a global supply chain that’s collapsing under the weight of Covid-19 drives freight prices ever higher. Whether its giant container ships stacked high with of 40-foot steel boxes, bulk carriers whose cavernous holds house thousands of tons of coal, or specialized vessels designed to pack in cars and trucks, earnings are soaring for ships of almost every type.
Shortages of containers as well as carriers
Amid Covid, the volume of shipping vessels in operation was reduced that had led to a lesser number of containers available while a larger set of containers had remained at inland depots and stuck at ports such as in the US and China.
While shipping firms are expected to make record profits this year, to the tune of many billions of dollars, they continue to be beset by problems. They have deployed more vessels and containers than prior to the pandemic, yet they still see unfortunate delays leading to missed sailings and missed capacity.
The container shipping industry is "creaking" under the strain of high demand at the moment. There are not only shortages of shipping carriers but also of containers. In addition, in Europe and the US, there are shortages of lorry driver also that means harder to move containers on to their destinations.
Lorry driver shortages are particularly acute in Britain, in part, due to EU workers leaving the UK following Brexit as well as during the pandemic plus tax changes making it more expensive for drivers from elsewhere in Europe to work or be employed in the UK. These current pressures are creating awkward situations - such as empty containers piling up at some ports while becoming scarce in others.
Increase in the shipping premium
The shortage of containers has led to a sharp increase in the shipping rates, which has affected small players in turn hitting the business on the whole. Some shipping companies are now charging premium rates to guarantee delivery within a few weeks, and that importers are also attempting to outbid one another, offering extra cash to snap up containers over their rivals.
For India, in over six months, the freight rates to Russia have jumped to $5,500 a container from $1,200. There has been similar hike for West Africa too. The freight charges to the US have seen the highest jump to nearly $13,000 as against over $2,000 six to eight months ago.
Shortages results in shipping delays
The delay in getting a container goes up to three-four weeks from earlier twothree days. With respect to lack of space on the ship, the containers are sailed in more than one voyage, perhaps spread over one or two months and since the containers are not shipped in one go, the business cycle of exporters is elongated.
The better days ahead
The second half is now looking even more profitable for ocean carriers-and more for cargo shippers-than the first. But the second half may not be the peak: A new forecast from Deutsche Bank argues that container shipping has entered a “super cycle” and ocean carriers will actually rake in more money in 2022 than they will this year.
Rupee faced a volatile week after Evergrande’s debt crisis along with Fed’s reserve monetary policy stance for bond tapering. This week rupee hits one month low of 73.93 amid bulk dollar purchases from foreign, however later rupee managed to pare its losses supported by exporters dollar sales. Apparently higher crude oil prices remain another headwind for rupee to remain vulnerable and break below 73.95 vs dollar may lead the domestic currency to fall towards 74.30 in the coming days. From the majors, euro rebounded from this week low, just under $1.17 and 86.28 vs rupee. Markets remain unbeaten despite latest FOMC meeting showed that the US central bank will keep interest rates as is. Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided color on future monetary policy, suggesting that we could see tapering as early as in November, dependent on the economy’s performance. The Fed's "dot plot" showed that an additional two members project a rate hike in 2022. While pound remains steady this week after moderate hawkish tone came out from the Bank of England monetary policy. The British pound remained supported following its decision to keep rates unchanged. The central bank warned that it may double its target for inflation by the end of this year. We will remain slightly positive for GBPINR in the coming days.
USD/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 73.9475 on 23-Sep-21. The contract made its high of 74.3875 on 21-Sep-21 and a low of 73.6125 on 21-Sep-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 73.8045.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.55.One can buy at 73.50 for the target of 74.50 with the stop loss of 73.00.
GBP/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 101.2775 on 23-Sep-21. The contract made its high of 101.6400 on 20-Sep-21 and a low of 100.9300 on 23-Sep-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.5844.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.21. One can sell at 101.50 for a target of 100.50 with the stop loss of 102.00.
| 9th SEP | Evergrande deadline sends chills through $400bn Asian debt market |
| 9th SEP | The Fed has signalled an inflection point |
| 8th SEP | Data scandal taints IMF head and World Bank |
| 8th SEP | US presses chipmakers for more transparency on supply chains |
| 7th SEP | Market expectations for Bank of England rate rise shift to early 2022 |
| 7th SEP | Bank of England predicts inflation to peak at over 4% this winter |
| 7th SEP | More Fed officials see first interest rate rise in 2022 |
| 6th SEP | ECB official and OECD warn of rising inflation risks |
| 6th SEP | Foreign investors help prop up Treasury market as Fed considers retreat |
EUR/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 86.7075 on 23-Sep-21. The contract made its high of 87.0650 on 22-Sep-21 and a low of 86.6250 on 20-Sep-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 87.9774.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.74. One can sell at 86.75 for a target of 85.75 with the stop loss of 87.25.
JPY/INR (OCT)) contract closed at 67.3225 on 23-Sep-21. The contract made its high of 67.7350 on 22-Sep-21 and a low of 67.1700 on 23-Sep-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 67.2327.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.32. One can buy at 66.50 for a target of 67.50 with the stop loss of 66.00.
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, promoted by Aditya Birla Capital and Sun Life (India) AMC Investments Inc, has decided to launch its maiden public offer for subscription on September 29. The price band for the offer has been fixed at Rs 695-712 per equity share. The company will offer 3,88,80,000 equity shares through its public issue. It is an entirely offer for sale (OFS) issue by promoters. Aditya Birla Capital will sell more than 28.5 lakh shares and Sun Life (India) AMC Investments Inc will offload more than 3.6 crore equity shares through offer for sale. The offer includes a reservation of 19.44 lakh equity shares for Aditya Birla Capital shareholders. The offer will close on October 1. Anchor book, if any, will open for a single day on September 28, a day before the issue opening. Investors can bid for a minimum 20 equity shares and in multiples of 20 shares thereafter. The minimum investment by retail investor would be Rs 14,240 for single lot and the maximum would be Rs 1,99,360 for 14 lots. Half of the offer is reserved for qualified institutional buyers, 35 percent for retail investors and the remaining 15 percent for non-institutional investors. Currently it is fully owned by two promoters - Aditya Birla Capital holds 51 percent stake and the rest 49 percent is held by Sun Life AMC. Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC is ranked as the largest non-bank affiliated AMC in India by QAAUM (quarterly average assets under management) since March 2018, and among the four largest AMCs in India by QAAUM since September 2011. The company managed total AUM of Rs 2,93,642 crore under its suite of mutual fund (excluding domestic fund-of-funds (FoFs)), portfolio management services, offshore and real estate offerings, as of June 2021.
Investors' appetite for Paras Defence and Space Technologies' initial public offering was very strong since the day one of subscription as it oversubscribed by 304 times on September 23, the final day of bidding. It is the highest subscription received by any IPO since at least 2007. The public offer of the defence and space engineering products and solutions provider has received bids for over 217 crore equity shares against the IPO size of 71.40 lakh equity shares, generating bids worth Rs 38,021 crore in three days. The issue was opened on September 21. The response to the IPO was seen from all kind of investors as the portion set aside for qualified institutional investors was subscribed 169.65 times and that of non-institutional investors subscribed 927.70 times. Retail investors, who have reservation for 35 percent of IPO size, have put in bids for 112.81 times the portion set aside for them. The company launched public offer for fund raising of Rs 170.77 crore which comprises a fresh issue Rs 140.6 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 30.2 crore by selling shareholders, including Paras Defence promoters. The small issue size, likely to benefit from the Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make-in-India initiatives, attractive valuations on the long term basis, backed by ace investor Sunil Singhania-owned Abakkus Fund, healthy order book of Rs 305 crore which gives strong revenue visibility, diversified product offerings, increasing focus on defence sector, and only IPO opened for subscription are some of key reasons pointed out by experts for strong investors' interest in the IPO. Paras Defence is the sole Indian supplier of critical imaging components such as large size optics and diffractive gratings for space applications in India. It manufactures highprecision optics for defence and space applications such as thermal imaging and space-imaging systems. It is the only Indian company to have the design capability for space optics and opto-mechanical assemblies.
Consumer durables retail chain Electronics Mart India Ltd has filed preliminary papers with SEBI to raise Rs 500 crore through an initial share-sale. The initial public offering (IPO) comprises sale of equity shares to the tune of Rs 500 crore, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). The company intends to utilise the net proceeds to fund its capital expenditure and incremental working capital requirements to the extent of Rs 133.8 crore and Rs 200 crore, respectively. In addition, Rs 50 crore will be used towards payment of debt. Funds will also be used for general corporate purposes. EMIL is one of the fastest growing companies in the retail of consumer durables and electronics with over 1 crore customers, 7.5 lakh square feet of retail space across over 90 stores supported by a strong workforce of more than 2,600 professionals.
Chennai-based Data Patterns (India), the supplier of electronic systems to defence and aerospace sectors, has filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus with the capital markets regulator Sebi for fund raising through initial public offering. The public issue comprises a fresh issue of Rs 300 crore and an offer for sale of 60,70,675 equity shares by promoter and individual selling shareholders. The offer for sale consists of a sale of up to 19.67 lakh shares each by Srinivasagopalan Rangarajan and Rekha Murthy Rangarajan, 75,000 shares by Sudhir Nathan, 4,14,775 equity shares by GK Vasundhara, and 16.46 lakh shares by other existing shareholders. The company is expected to raise around Rs 600-700 crore through its public issue. Data Patterns intends to utilise net proceeds from the fresh issue for repaying debt, working capital, and upgradation and expansion of its existing facilities. The defence and aerospace electronics solutions provider may consider a pre-IPO placement of up to Rs 60 crore. If the pre-IPO placement is undertaken, then accordingly the fresh issue will get reduced, as per the DRHP filing.
Hyderabad-based Hariom Pipe Industries Limited (HPIL) has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the SEBI for its initial public offering (IPO) to raise Rs 100- 120 crore. The company is mulling to use the funds to fund its capital expenditure, working capital requirements besides expenses for general corporate purposes. The equity shares have a face value of Rs 10 each. Hariom Pipe Industries Limited has a strong hold on its steel products with a wide distribution network across India and especially in South and Western India. It has a diverse product portfolio consisting of mild steel (MS) billets, pipes and tubes, hot rolled (HR) coils and scaffolding systems and caters to diverse end use industries such as housing, infrastructure, agriculture, automotive, solar, fabrication and engineering. Among other details, HPIL is also planning to set up a new manufacturing plant in Telangana's Sangareddy with a total estimated installed capacity of 51,943 tonnes per annum. HPIL plans for expansion of its mild steel (MS) pipe manufacturing capacity by setting up of two additional pipe mills from 84,000 MTPA to 1,32,000 MTPA and also expanding the furnace unit capacity to 1,04,232 MTPA from the existing 95,832 MTPA. Its total income for FY 2021 stood at Rs 254.82 crore against Rs 161.15 crore a year ago and the net profit stood at Rs 15.13 crore versus Rs 7.90 crore a year ago. EBITDA margin was at 13.72 percent compared with 14.81 percent in 2020.
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In its first foray into the international mutual funds' space, HDFC Mutual Fund will shortly be launching a Fund of Funds (FoF), which will mirror the MSCI World Index. Notably, the MSCI World Index, with more than 1500 constituents, focuses on capturing large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets, while covering about 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. The new fund offer (NFO) for this open-ended scheme will run between 17 September-1 October, with an option for purchase and redemption available thereafter. The objective, as stated in the fund presentation, is to provide long-term capital appreciation. The minimum purchase amount during the NFO is set at Rs. 5,000, with an additional purchase priced at Rs 1,000 and any amount thereafter. The fund follows a 3T (Tax, Timing, and Transaction costs) for optimal fund performance. The fund, which will also purportedly provide a hedge against currency depreciation, will track multiple Index and ETFs across the constituent countries to provide for diversification and balance in the portfolio. Here is a snapshot of the fund’s breakdown amongst various categories of its investments in Credit Suisse Index Funds (CSIF).
Navi Mutual Fund, sponsored by former Flipkart founder Sachin Bansal, is planning to launch an electric vehicle fund. The mutual fund, previously known as Essel Mutual Fund, has filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India to launch a Navi Electric Vehicles and Driving Technology FoF. “The investment objective of the scheme is to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing in units of overseas ETFs and/or index funds that invest in electric vehicles and driving technology. However, there is no assurance that the investment objective of the scheme will be realized,” the draft NFO papers showed. The fund of funds will be benchmarked against the STOXX Global Electric Vehicles & Driving Technology NET Index. Navi Mutual Fund, which recently received approval from the Sebi, is in the works to launch a series of new schemes for investors that range from providing access to Vanguard ETFs to the Chinese equity market.
Equity mutual funds attracted a little over Rs 8,666 crore in August, making it the sixth consecutive monthly net inflow, on staggering investment in flexi-cap category. In comparison, such funds witnessed a net inflow on Rs 22,583 crore in July on huge investments in flexi-cap category, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India showed. Equity schemes saw net inflow of Rs 5,988 crore n June, Rs 10,083 crore in May, Rs 3,437 crore in April and Rs 9,115 crore in March. Prior to this, equity schemes had consistently witnessed outflows for eight months from July 2020 to February 2021. The inflow pushed assets under management (AUM) of the mutual fund industry to an all-time high of Rs 36.6 lakh crore at August-end from Rs 35.32 lakh crore at July-end.
Foreign assets of the mutual fund companies jumped several folds to USD 2.9 billion or Rs 20,982 crore as of the end of March 2021, on account of a rise in the value of equity. According to a Survey of Foreign Liabilities and Assets of the Mutual Fund Companies, the UAE, the UK, USA and Singapore together accounted for nearly 45 per cent of the total MF units held by non-residents, both at face value as well as market value, the RBI said in a statement. It added that the foreign assets of MF companies increased due to a rise in equity security and other foreign assets during the year and stood at USD 2.9 billion at the end of March 2021, up from USD 778 million at the end of the previous fiscal. In rupee terms, it soared from Rs 5,864 crore to Rs 20,982 crore. The survey, the RBI said, covered 44 Indian MF companies and their asset management companies (AMCs), which held or acquired foreign assets and liabilities during 2020-21. Overseas equity investments of mutual fund companies were largely concentrated in USA and Luxembourg. The survey further said foreign liabilities of AMCs stood at USD 5.7 billion in March 2021 whereas their foreign assets were much lower at USD 0.1 billion. The relatively small overseas investments by AMCs were largely held in Guernsey, Singapore and Mauritius.
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