Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets moved higher after the Federal Reserve reassured investors about the prospects for rate cuts this year. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished at their highest closing levels on Fed's actions and outlook. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell-led Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the Federal Funds rate at 5.25% - 5.5% and maintained its forecast for three rate cuts this year. Another data showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that job growth remained strong in March. Furthermore, on the global economic front, the Bank of England kept its main interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 5.25% on Thursday even though inflation continues to drop from multi-decade peaks. A data showed that Europe's economy failed to expand at the end of 2023, dragging out the stagnation for more than a year amid higher energy prices, costlier credit and a downturn in former powerhouse Germany. Business activity across the Eurozone showed early signs of stabilizing in March. The latest HCOB flash Eurozone composite PMI output index came in at 49.9, a nine-month high and an improvement on February's 49.2. Within that, the services PMI business activity index rose to 51.1 from 50.2, while the manufacturing PMI output index nudged up to 46.8 from 46.6. Meanwhile, Nikkei 225 crossed 41,000 to hit a fresh all-time high on Friday as Japan inflation accelerated in February

Back at home, Lifted by favorable global sentiment and solid direct tax collection, Indian markets rebounded, closing with modest gains. Robust FII & DII inflows sustained the market. Global rating agency S&P revised India's economic growth to 6.8 percent for FY25 from 6.5 percent and strong domestic economy data are likely to boost the market sentiment. Going forward, market is likely to take direction from global as well as domestic factors.

On the commodity markets front, continuing its upward trajectory, the CRB index surpassed the 330 mark, fueled by strong trends in bullion and energy markets. A decline in the dollar index and treasury yields, prompted by signals from the Fed indicating three potential rate cuts in 2024, further bolstered commodity buying. Gold on the COMEX hit an all-time high of $2025, while on the MCX, it reached 66943. Silver followed suit, albeit falling just short of its record high on the MCX at 78590. Copper saw gains amid potential supply shocks from China's production cuts, while lead and zinc closed lower and aluminum remained stable. Lead inventories surged 34% to an 11-year high. Oil prices remained steady, supported by a surprise U.S. crude stock drop and the Fed's rate cut outlook. Gasoline inventories fell for a seventh week, signaling robust fuel demand. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries also influenced crude trading. In agriculture, the guar complex showed upward bias, while castor seed and sun oil paused their rallies. Cotton candy traded weakly, and cotton oil seed cake closed slightly higher. The Cotton Advisory Board projected lower cotton production for 2023-24. In spices, jeera prices stabilized amid increased festive and export demand, while turmeric and dhaniya prices declined. Mentha oil closed lower due to sluggish export demand.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • According to the flash survey data from S&P Global, India's private sector activity expanded at the quickest pace in eight months, boosted by the accelerated growth in the manufacturing sector. The flash HSBC composite output index rose to 61.3 in March from 60.6 in February. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Information technology
  • TCS signed a multimillion-dollar deal to carry out the end-to-end IT transformation of Ramboll, Denmark. Over the next seven years, TCS will modernise and streamline Ramboll's IT operating model to drive business growth and optimise the IT cost base.
Power
  • Torrent Power signed a share purchase agreement with Solapur Transmission for the acquisition of a 100% stake to establish a transmission system for the evacuation of power from renewable energy projects in Maharashtra.
Shipping
  • Mazagon Dock accepted the Mumbai Port Authority's 29-year lease for the allotment of land and building on a long-term lease basis of 29 years. The total allotment costs Rs 354 crore.
Agro Chemicals
  • Dhanuka Agritech signed a memorandum of understanding with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research for scientific and technical cooperation.
Capital Goods
  • Jupiter Wagons Company acquired Bonatrans India for Rs 271 crore, becoming the firstIndian rolling stock manufacturer with its own wheel plant.
Plastic Products
  • Prince Pipes and Fittings signed an agreement with Klaus Waren Fixtures and NM Shah for the purchase of the 'Aquel' brand and other assets worth Rs 55 crore to set up an in-house manufacturing facility, resulting in building greater value in the bathware segment.
Construction
  • NBCC's subsidiary, HSCC (India), has secured a Rs 14 crore work order for lab equipment procurement for the Himachal Pharma Testing Lab.
  • HG Infra Engineering received four orders worth Rs 1,026 crore with Stockwell Solar Services JV consortium for solar business from Jodhpur Vidyut Vitran Nigam.
  • Rail Vikas Nigam received a Letter of Acceptance worth Rs 339 crore from Maharashtra Metro Rail for the design and construction of the Pune Metro Rail Project.
  • Brigade Enterprises announced the launch of BuzzWorks in Bengaluru. BuzzWorks introduces flexible and managed workspace solutions to cater to the evolving needs of modern businesses.
  • IRCON International received a Letter of Acceptance for the construction of a twintube unidirectional tunnel in Mizoram for Rs 631 crore.
Defence
  • Hindustan Aeronautics signed a contract worth Rs 2,890 crore with the Ministry of Defence for the mid-life upgrade of 25 Dornier aircraft along with associated equipment for the Indian Navy
Metal
  • Jindal Stainless supplied stainless steel for India's first underwater metro line in Kolkata. This landmark project is worth Rs 4,965 crore.
Real Estates
  • Prestige Estates Projects announced its latest acquisition of 62.5 acres of prime land in Indirapuram Extension, NCR. This strategic acquisition marks a significant milestone for Prestige Group as it expands its footprint in the dynamic real estate market of NCR. The acquired land will be developed primarily as residential, complemented by education and retail aligning with Prestige Group's vision to create integrated urban communities that redefine modern living.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • The US Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision after a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, leaving the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 5.25 per cent - 5.50 per cent for the fifth straight meeting, in line with Street estimates. However, the FOMC said that it expects three rate cuts in 2024 despite sticky inflation.
  • US existing home sale index spiked by 9.5 percentto an annualrate of 4.38 million in February after jumping by 3.1 percent to a rate of 4.00 million in January. The continued surge came as a surprise to economists, who had expected existing homesales topullbackby1.5percenttoarateof3.94million
  • US initial jobless claims edged down to 210,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 212,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to rise to 215,000 from the 209,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • The Bank of England maintained its key policy rate for the fifth straight session, with no members seeking a hike as inflation is expected to ease faster than expected. The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Andrew Bailey, voted 8-1 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

NHPC LIMITED

CMP: 85.05

Target Price: 103

Upside: 21%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 115.84/38.70
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 85433.02
  • EPS (Rs.) 3.70
  • P/E Ratio (times) 22.99
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.19
  • Dividend Yield (%) 2.25
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • NHPC's total installed capacity is 7,097.20 megawatts (MW) including 1546 MW in Joint Venture, comprising 6971.20 MW from 22 Hydro Power Stations, 76 MW from two Solar Power Project and 50 MW from a Wind Power Project. Its hydro share of 6971.20 MW comes to about 14.88% of the country's total installed Hydro capacity of 46850.18 MW. As of 31 December 2023, the Government of India held 70.95% stake in the company.
  • NHPC including its JVs/ Subsidiaries is presently engaged in the construction of 16 projects aggregating to a total installed capacity of 10449.70 MW, which includes 3 hydroelectric projects in Himachal Pradesh and 3 Solar Projects totaling 1000 MW being undertaken under MNRE, CPSU scheme in Gujarat(600 MW), Rajasthan(300 MW) & Andhra Pradesh(100MW) by NHPC, whereas 6 Hydroelectric projects and 3 Solar projects are being executed by Subsidiaries / JV Companies of NHPC and 8 MW Sanchi solar PV plant in M.P by NHDC, Kalpi Solar Project (26 MW out of 65 MW is under operation and 39 MW is under construction) in UP by BSUL and Ground Mounted SPP (0.70 MW) in Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer.
  • In addition, 13 projects aggregating to a total installed capacity of 4847 MW are Under Clearance Stage which includes 4 hydro & 3 solar projects by NHPC on his own and 6 projects ( 2 in hydro & 4 in solar) in JV mode. Further, 4 Hydroelectric projects and 1 Pumped Storage Project aggregating to a total installed capacity of 4750 MW are in Survey & Investigation Stage being undertaken by NHPC.
  • It has robust plan to double its capacity from 7000MW to 14,000 MW by FY2027. According to the management, it has an annual capital expenditure ranging between Rs. 9,000 crore and Rs.10,000 crore planned for the current and the next 8-10 years. One of the key projects contributing to this growth is the Subansiri hydroelectric power plant. The company said that the two lower units of the Subansiri project are slated to be commissioned by FY24, adding substantial capacity to NHPC's portfolio. The Parbati projects, another crucial component of NHPC's expans ion s trategy, are expected to be commissioned entirely by September 2024.
  • Recently, NHPC signed a Letter ofIntent with UP to set up 1200MW solar park project and The park is proposed to be constructed in 24 months from the investment approval and will generate about 2,400 million units electricity every year.

Risk

  • Execution risk for under-construction projects
  • Regulatory risk due to cost-plus regime

Valuation

According to the management of the company, it has taken initiatives to streamline the processes by adopting new technologies in the areas of engineering for its sustainable growth. It is also looking forward for remote operation of some of its power stations. The company continues to remain comfortable by low overall gearing and stable debt coverage metrics. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.103 in 8 to 10 months' on a target P/BV of 2.55x and FY25 (E) BVPS of Rs.40.39.

KEC INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

CMP: 673.10

Target Price: 829

Upside: 23%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 769.00/443.25
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 17304.62
  • EPS (Rs.) 10.39
  • P/E Ratio (times) 64.78
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.50
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.45
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • KEC International is a global infrastructure Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) major. It has presence in the verticals of Power Transmission and Distribution, Railways, Civil, Urban Infrastructure, Solar, Oil & Gas Pipelines, and Cables. The Company is currently executing infrastructure projects in 30+ countries and has a footprint in 110+ countries (includes EPC, Supply of Towers and Cables). It is the flagship Company of the RPG Group.
  • The Company has secured new orders of Rs. 2,257 crores across its various businesses. In the Transmission & Distribution (T&D) segment, it secured 765 kV Transmission line and substation orders in India, from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) and Supply of Supply of Towers, Hardware and Poles in Americas. These orders have considerably enhanced our India T&D order book. In Oil & Gas Pipeline business it has secured its first international order for a pipeline laying project. Besides it has secured orders for supply of various types of cables in India and overseas.
  • Its YTD order intake has surpassed Rs 16,000 crores. With this, the order book plus L1 position stands at a record level of over Rs.41,000 Crores, which gives it the visibility for the next six to eight quarters.
  • In Q3FY2024, it reported consolidated revenue growth of 14% with revenue surpassing Rs.5000 Crores. The growth has been primarily delivered by good performances in civil and the T&D businesses both in India and international. The EBITDA margins for Q3 have increased by a good 160 basis points increasing from 4.6% in Q3 FY2023 to 6.2% in Q3 FY2024. It delivered an impressive growth in EBITDA of 54% and PAT grown six times.
  • In the T&D business, the company secured significant orders especially in UAE through its Dubai subsidiary, EPC LLC. Considering the sustained increase in tendering activities in the Middle East it has undertaken a debottlenecking program for increasing its power manufacturing capacity in Dubai facility by 20% at a nominal cost.
  • It plans to expand the product portfolio at its Vadodara cable plant by setting up a fully integrated manufacturing line for aluminium conductors. The capex requirement for this expansion is estimated to be around Rs.60 Crores and the project is expected to be completed within the next few quarters.

Risk

  • Geopolitical Risks
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

The company has strong order book, which indicates growth visibility for next few quarters. According to the management, the company is witnessing substantial opportunities of over Rs.25000 Crores for T&D projects in the domestic market most of which are already floated and would be awarded in next few quarters. Its civil business is also reporting strong growth on the back of robust execution across all segments. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.829 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on current P/BV of 4.5x and FY25 BVPS of Rs. 184.18.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

SRF LIMITED (SRF)

The stock closed at Rs.2546 on 22nd March, 2024. It made a 52- week low of Rs.2040 on 25th JULY, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.2636 on 09th MAY 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 2357.

The stock's historical movement over the last 15 months indicates consolidation within a broader range of 2600-2200 zone. However, on short-term charts, the stock has consistently found support around the 2200-2300 zone. Presently, there's a notable breakout above the long-term downward sloping channel, coupled with a breakout from the consolidation phase, marked by a sudden spike in volume activity. This suggests a potentially significant shift in the stock's trajectory. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2520-2550 levels for the upside target of 2900-2925 levels with SL below 2350 levels.

PI INDUSTRIES LIMITED (PIIND)

The stock closed at Rs.3791 on 22ND March, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.2868.90 on 28th MARCH, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.4011.15 on 21ST JUNE 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.3518.

After experiencing a decline to the 3250 levels, the stock quickly bounced back, with prices once again reclaiming a fresh momentum above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) on the daily charts. Throughout the last month, the stock has stayed within a consolidation phase, and seen fluctuating between the 3550-3750 range, with prices consistently holding above its key moving averages. Presently, a noteworthy event has unfolded as the stock has broken out above a rectangle pattern, with momentum intensifying beyond the notable resistance level of 3750.Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 3775-3790 levels for the upside target of 4150-4175 levels with SL below 3500 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Last week, both Nifty and Banknifty closed nearly unchanged, registering marginal gains. Notable profit-taking was seen in the IT and midcap sectors. On the flip side, sectors like Realty and Auto remained among the outperformers over the week. From the derivative front, in Nifty options, the highest call open interest was observed at the 22,500 strike, while the highest put open interest was at the 22,000 strike. For Banknifty, the highest call open interest was at the 47,000 strike, with the highest put open interest at the 46,500 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 11.90%, and put options concluded at 12.57%. The India VIX, a crucial market volatility indicator, ended the week at 12.51%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.12 for the week. In the week ahead, Nifty is anticipated to fluctuate between 21800 and 22300 zone, with a potential breakout determining market momentum. It's advisable for traders to closely watch these levels. Furthermore, the volatility index (India VIX) might play a significant role in the upcoming sessions; as a decrease in the India VIX could signal increased buying interest.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 21st March, 2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices remained under pressure with increased supplies at major trading centers. Harvesting of turmeric has picked up with conducive weather condition that will lead to rise in supplies in the market. Impact of lower production is being seen on arrival pace as about 41.8 thousand tonnes of arrivals touched the major APMC market so far in Mar'24 against the 48.6 thousand tonnes of turmeric of previous year. Festive demand has improved wherein supply has been tighter due to lower production and delayed harvest in Telangana and Maharashtra. Production is likely to be dropped by about 14% Y-oY due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield and may stay in between 9.2-9.5 lakh tonnes. Turmeric export from India dropped 15% Y-o-y to 10.49 thousand tonnes in Jan'24 wherein total export during Apr'23-Jan'24 reported at 131.6 thousand tonnes down by 3.5% from previous year. Turmeric prices are expected to trade in range of 14800- 19000.

Dhaniya price extended its losses with surging selling pressure in the market. Commencement of new arrivals in the market and higher carry forward stocks boosted overall supplies that put pressure on prices. Losses are likely to be limited due to fear of yield losses sparked with recent rainfall in northern and central part of India will support buying activities in physical market. Production is likely to be down about 10-15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield. India exported about 83.6 thousand tonnes of coriander during Apr'23-Jan'24 compared to 24.8 tonnes of previous year up by 215% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7200-8200.

Jeera futures traded down with increased supply outlook. Bumper production prospects and commencement of new crop will put pressure on prices. However, losses are likely to be capped by improved export demand. Jeera prices have turned competitive at prevailing rate that will boost overall exports. Exports seasonality of jeera suggest that export demand remains higher during Mar due to strong demand prospects ahead in wake of series of festivals in Mar-Apr. India exported 12.4 thousand tonnes of jeera in Jan'24 as compared to 8.04 thousand tonnes previous year higher by 54% Y-o-Y. Production for the year 2024-25 is likely to be increased by 65%-70% Y-o-Y to 10.3 million bags as per FISS with a substantial rise in cultivation area. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 21000-32500.

BULLIONS

Gold recorded its fourth weekly gain in five, propelled by projections of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the year, which bolstered investor confidence. Despite the Fed maintaining steady rates, policymakers signaled their intention to reduce rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024, notwithstanding recent spikes in inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the elevated inflation figures did not alter the broader narrative of gradually alleviating U.S. price pressures. Given gold's lack of interest yield, it typically thrives when interest rates decline, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 74% likelihood of rate cuts commencing in June, as per the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the Bank of England opted to leave borrowing costs unchanged and hinted at a potential shift towards rate cuts as the economy moves in that direction. Unexpectedly positive data emerged on Thursday, with a decline in new claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. and a significant uptick in sales of previously owned homes in February. However, the dollar rebounded following a surprise interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, boosting global risk sentiment and reinforcing the allure of the greenback amidst robust U.S. economic expansion. Gold spot on COMEX retreated after reaching an all-time high of 2222.91, with this level now acting as resistance. Support levels lie at 2140 and 2090. Silver prices on COMEX may fluctuate within the broader range of $22.60-$26.00. Looking ahead, gold prices on MCX are anticipated to experience significant volatility, finding support near 64500 and encountering resistance near 67000. Silver may trade within the range of 73800-77000.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices experienced a decline as prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza emerged, alleviating supply concerns. Reports suggested that the US is preparing to introduce a draft UN resolution in the Security Council, advocating for an immediate and sustained ceasefire in Gaza. Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed optimism about peace negotiations in Qatar. The oil market also faced pressure from a strengthened dollar, fuelled by expectations of prolonged higher interest rates in the US compared to other major economies, which are beginning to cut rates. Furthermore, EIA data revealed a drop in gasoline product supplies in the US below 9 million barrels for the first time in three weeks, signalling weakened consumption. The dollar's resurgence, following the surprise interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, further impacted oil prices as it made oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus dampening demand. Looking ahead, crude prices are expected to remain sensitive to global developments and may experience significant volatility. The potential trading range for the week could be between 6460-6900. Meanwhile, natural gas prices recorded modest gains with sideways movement, influenced by forecasts of late-winter cold weather that could help mitigate the surplus in storage. The weekly EIA inventory report highlighted abundant US natural gas inventories, standing at +41.0% above their 5-year average as of March 15, the highest level in nearly eight years. Weather forecasts for natural gas remained mixed, with colder than average temperatures anticipated for the western and central US, contrasting with warmer forecasts for the eastern US. In the upcoming week, prices are likely to continue trading within a range-bound pattern, with a potential trading range of 130-150.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias due to demand concern and stronger U.S. dollar. Investors are worried about China's troubled and debt-laden property sector, which is usually a key consumer of industrial metals. Real estate of China remained a worry as property investment in the same period fell 9% - albeit a slower decline from December. Despite an unexpected acceleration in China's industrial production in February, worries persisted regarding the strength of the Chinese economy. Copper may trade in the range of 740-770. Despite of smelters' strategic decision to curtail production due to raw material shortages, the sentiment is still weak due to a significant 20% surge in Chinese deliverable copper inventories during the week ending March 15th, indicating substantial seasonal restocking activities. Zinc can trade in range of 212-226 levels. The zinc price got support due to supply concerns stemming from disruptions in major zinc mines globally. Lead can move in the range of 174-182 levels with bearish bias on higher supply. Macquarie expects a surplus in the global lead market of 76,000 tons this year and 138,000 tons in 2025. Aluminium can trade in the range of 200-215 levels with bullish bias as buying interest increased with improving demand prospects from top consumer China. But ample supplies may likely to cap gains. China's primary aluminium output in the first two months of 2024 climbed 5.5% to 7.1 million tons from the same year-ago period, official data showed. Steel long (Apr) is likely to trade in the range of 40800-42500 levels with negative bias. Steel demand is weakening around the world, due to factors like a slowdown in construction and manufacturing.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: APR
M*.High: : 775.00
M*.Low: 728.70

It closed at Rs.763.15 on 21st Mar 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.751.09. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.701. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.752.00 for a target of Rs.775.00 with the stop loss of 741.

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 6897.00
M*.Low: : 6110.00

It closed at Rs.6733.00 on 21st Mar 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6625.26. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.763. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.6680 for a target of Rs. 7100 with the stop loss of 6500.

TURMERIC NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 19776.00
M*.Low: 12650.00

It closed at Rs.16758.00 on 21st Mar 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.17381.28. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.504. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.17800 for a target of Rs.15500 with the stop loss of 18900.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The water level in more than half of India's 150 major reservoirs is lower than 40% of the capacity with the storage in two-thirds being less than 50%, said the Central Water Commission (CWC).
  • India's basmati shipments are set to cross the $5 billionmark during the current financial year on robust demand from traditional markets in Middle East and other markets .
  • Sugar output dips marginally to 28.08 mt until Mar 15 in 2023-24 season, says ISMA
  • India's oil demand in the year 2024 is expected to see a growth of 220,000 barrels per day to reach 5.57 million barrels per day, up 4.19% from 2023, as per an estimate by OPEC.
  • The country registered a marginal rise of 1.65 per cent in coal imports to 212.24 Million Tonnes (MT) in the April-January period of the ongoing fiscal, over the year-ago period: Coal Ministry
  • Top consumer China imported 720,000 tons of unwrought aluminium and products in JanuaryFebruary this year, up 93.6% from the same period last year, customs data showed.
  • International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) indicated that the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 58,700 metric tons in January, compared to a deficit of 46,800 tons in the previous month.
  • Chances of La Nina, which results in heavy rainfall and floods particularly in India, emerging after June have increased even as El Nino is dissipating, two global weather agencies have said.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Continuing its upward trajectory, the CRB index surpassed the 330 mark, fuelled by strong trends in bullion and energy markets. A decline in the dollar index and treasury yields, prompted by signals from the Fed indicating three potential rate cuts in 2024, further bolstered commodity buying. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in the recent meet, but policymakers indicated they still expect to reduce them by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024 despite stodgier expected progress towards the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target. Gold on the COMEX hit an all-time high of $2025, while on the MCX, it reached 66943 levels. Silver followed suit, albeit falling just short of its record high on the MCX at 78590 levels. Copper experienced gains but didn't manage to close at the upper end, while lead and zinc closed down, with aluminum maintaining a steady range. Inventories of lead in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange surged 34% to the highest level in 11 years. Copper prices rose sharply this month on potential supply shocks arising from production cuts by China's biggest copper refiners. Oil prices were broadly steady, as a surprise U.S. crude stock drop and the U.S. Federal Reserve sticking to its outlook on rate cuts for the year offered support. Stockpiles unexpectedly declined by 2 million barrels to 445 million barrels in the week ended March 15, as exports rose and refiners continued to increase activity. Gasoline inventories fell for a seventh week, down 3.3 million barrels to 230.8 million, suggesting steady strong fuel demand. Lower rates could boost economic growth, in good news for oil sales. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries also prompted investors to trade crude at higher prices.

Within the agricultural sector, the guar complex remained within a range but showed some upward bias. Castor seed prices saw a pause in their rally, as did Sun oil after a four-week climb. Cotton candy traded weakly following a two-month upward surge, while cotton oil seed cake closed marginally higher. Cotton Advisory board has projected total cotton production for year 2023-24 at 323.11 lakh bales against the 336.60 lakh bales of previous year. About 83.1 thousand bales arrived on 18th March wherein cumulative arrivals in year 2023-24 reported at 228.15 lakh bales so far. In the spices market, jeera prices stabilized after a decline with increased festive demand amid improved export demand, while turmeric prices slipped for the second consecutive week from their highs. Dhaniya witnessed a similar trend. Supplies has started improving with advancement of harvesting activities but still remained below normal due to lower production. Mentha oil closed down for the second consecutive week reports of sluggish export of mentha oil and menthol.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Steel … “Key pillar of economic growth”

Steel industry is often considered as an economic indicator of any country's development because of its critical role in infrastructural and overall economic development. Its production is considered one of the top contributors to the country's GDP, and the steel product is widely used in the construction of bridges, buildings and other infrastructure. Steel is also used to build vehicles, shipbuilding, machinery manufacturing, and fertiliser production. In India, around 60% of the Steel production is for Long Products used mainly for the Construction activities. Balance 40% of the Steel produced is for flat products, used for the electrical, automobile & engineering purpose. Steel application across segments will see a quantum jump, and moreover newer areas of usage such as the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and drone technology will provide ample opportunities to the steel players.

Global crude steel production

  • Global crude steel production remained flat for 2023 compared with the previous year, with an output of 1888.2 million tonnes (mt) against 1888.7 mt in 2022.
  • However, global crude steel production declined by 1.6 per cent in January 2024 to 148.1 million tonnes (mt) against 150.6 mt in the corresponding period a year ago.
  • According to the World Steel Association, for 2023, top producer China's output remained flat at 1019.1 mt.
  • India's steel output increased by 11.8 per cent at 140.2 mt against 125.4 mt in the previous year.
  • India reported a 7.3 per cent rise in production at 12.5 mt in January 2024.
  • Japan's output declined a tad at 87 mt against 89.2 mt in 2022, down by 2.5 percent.
  • US output had a slight increase in the year, going up by 0.2 per cent at 80.7 mt against 80.5 mt.
  • Russian and Suth Korean output went up by 5.6 and 1.3 per cent at 75.8 mt and 66.7 mt, respectively.

Global crude steel demand

  • The World Steel Association has estimated the steel demand worldwide will witness a 1.9 per cent growth in 2024. In its short-range outlook, worldsteel said the demand will increase to 1,849.1 mt in 2024.
  • Manufacturing is expected to lead the recovery, but high interest rates will continue to weigh on steel demand.
  • Demand growth is limited amid weak construction activity in the European Union and rising interest rates in the United States, which negatively affects domestic steel consumption. In China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore and steel, the steel industry is suffering from ongoing problems in the real estate sector.
  • Considering the delayed effect of the tightening monetary policy, we expect steel demand recovery in 2024 to be slow in the advanced economies.
  • China's debt crisis, a sluggish consumer spending and growing steel overcapacity are expected to remain as the bi g ges t hurdles for the domestic steel markets in 2024.
  • India's steel consumption is bucking the global trend and is estimated to grow 7-8% backed by government spending on infrastructure, building, and construction.

Outlook

International steel prices are expected to remain elevated due to high input costs, primarily iron ore and coking coal, and the on-going geopolitical crisis. The domestic steel prices are expected to directionally follow the global prices and strengthen due to continued strong domestic demand driven by continued thrust on infrastructure development and pick-up in the real estate and construction activities amid an overall economic revival and increase in input prices.

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

This week, the Indian Rupee experienced a significant decline,reaching its lowestlevel in three months at 83.30 against the dollar. This drop was attributed to a shortage of dollars in the interbank market. Despite a dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials reflected in the dot plot, the dollar index rallied, further impacting the rupee's value. Notably, strong buying activity was observed from oil importers and in the interbank market ahead of the long weekend. Technical outlook shows a strong trendline support at 83.0, with resistance levels at 83.35 and 83.45 respectively. Next week we have a short week which is likely to keep the rupee under pressure. Furtherthe dollar index got further support after the Bank of England (BoE) keptinterestrates steady at 5.25% but hinted at potential rate cuts as the economy shows positive signs.This led to a drop in the pound and. Sterling fell more than half-apercent to slide below $1.27. Parallely GBPINR traded lower at around 105.30 as well. BoE's rate-setters voted 8- 1 to maintain rates, with two officials changing their stance from previously advocating for higher rates which could keep the pound lower in coming days. In continuation of strong dollar mode, euro gave up its gains to retreat back to $1.08 handle from $1.09. The spotlight came this week when the Bank of Japan ended the negative interestrate and hiked the 10 bps policy rate for the first time since 2007. However markets took the hike on a dovish note which put yen under pressure to slide to the lowest level in a year. Going forward, if the US yields soften, we can expect JPY to outperform in the coming days. Next week we have subdued the economic calendar with a key focus onU.S core PCE release on Friday.

USDINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.02. However, the pair is in Overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 77 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 83.1 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.75 levels.

One can Buy near 83 for the target of 83.5 with the stop loss of 82.75

GBPINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.5. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 106 levels.

One can Sell near 105.75 for the target of 104.85 with the stop loss of 106.2

EURINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.25. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 91 levels.

One can Sell near 91 for the target of 90 with the stop loss of 91.5

JPYINR (MAR) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 55.63. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 54.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 55.75 levels.

One can Sell near 55.65 for the target of 54.65 with the stop loss of 56.15

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IPO

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund launches Nifty Realty ETF and Nifty SmallCap 250 ETF

Motilal Oswal Nifty Realty ETF is an open-ended scheme replicating/ tracking Nifty Realty TR Index. The investment objective of Motilal Oswal Nifty Realty ETF is to provide returns that, before expenses, correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the Nifty Realty Index, subject to tracking error. The Motilal Oswal Nifty Realty ETF aims to provide investors an opportunity to participate in the growth potential of the realty sector and it is India's first ETF offering exposure to realty stocks. The Nifty Realty Index is designed to reflect the performance of real estate companies operating in residential and commercial projects. The index comprises 10 companies that also form a part of the Nifty 500, according to a press release by the fund house. The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking returns that correspond to the performance of the Nifty Realty TR Index subject to tracking error and want long-term capital growth.

Motilal Oswal Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF is an open-ended scheme replicating/ tracking the Nifty Smallcap 250 TR Index. The investment objective of Motilal Oswal Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF, is to provide returns that, before expenses, correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index, subject to tracking error. Motilal Oswal Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF aims to provide investors an opportunity to participate in the growth potential of small-cap stocks. The Nifty Smallcap 250 Index is designed to measure the performance of the top 250 companies, including those already present in the Nifty 500 constituents. The index is well-diversified, with its top 10 holdings accounting for only 14% against 56% in the Nifty 50 Index. The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking returns that correspond to the performance of the Nifty Smallcap 250 TR Index subject to tracking error and want long-term capital growth.

Madhu Nair named CEO of Union Mutual Fund

Union Mutual Fund has appointed Madhu Nair as the chief executive officer of the asset manager. Nair will succeed G Pradeepkumar, who has led the fund house since its inception in 2010. Nair who was earlier the head of sales and distribution at HSBC Mutual Fund has worked with fund houses like Invesco MF, Kotak MF and Kothari Pioneer MF in various sales and distribution roles. Union MF is a joint venture of Union Bank of India and Dai-Ichi Life Holdings and managed assets worth ₹13,595 crore for the quarter ended December 2023.

Nippon smallcap mutual fund revises exit load and limits subscription

Nippon India Mutual Fund has decided to revise the exit load and limit subscriptions in Nippon India Small Cap Fund. The fund house informed about this to the investors through a notice-cum-addendum. The changes will be effective from March 22. The tenure for the exit load will be changed from one month to one year. The fund house mentioned that with effect from October 1, 2012, exit load if charged to the scheme shall be credited to the scheme immediately net of goods and service tax, if any. The revision in exit load shall be applicable on a prospective basis to; (a) all the subscription transactions (including switch-in) processed with NAV of March 22, 2024, and thereafter, irrespective of receipt of application. (b) all the systematic transactions such as Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) and Systematic Transfer Plan (STP) etc. where registrations/enrolments have been done on or after the effective date.

Canara Robeco Mutual Fund file draft document for balanced advantage fund

Canara Robeco Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for a balanced advantage fund. Canara Robeco Balanced Advantage Fund will be an open-ended dynamic asset allocation fund. The investment objective of the scheme will be to generate long-term capital appreciation with income generation by dynamically investing in equity and equity related instruments and debt and money market instruments. The scheme will offer regular and direct plans both with growth and IDCW options. The minimum investment amount for lumpsum investment will be Rs 5,000 and multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum investment amount for monthly SIP will be Rs 1000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. For quarterly SIP, the investment amount will be Rs 2000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum redemption amount will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter or the account balance, whichever is lower. The scheme will be benchmarked against CRISIL Hybrid 50+50 - Moderate Index. The scheme will be managed by Ennette Fernandes, Pranav Gokhale and Suman Prasad.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

NEW FUND OFFER





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