Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets moved higher after the US Federal Reserve provided interest rate guidance that was less hawkish-than-expected. This, combined with positive corporate earnings releases and economic data, boosted investor confidence. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at lower levels last week. The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged but did acknowledge its disappointment over the “lack of further progress" in pushing inflation down to its 2% target. The Eurozone recorded its strongest performance since the third quarter of 2022 and improved on shrinkage of 0.1% in each of the last two quarters of 2023, according to official figures released by the European Union's statistical agency Eurostat. On the Japanese front, Japan's factory output rebounded in March from a dismal start to the year, with the quarterly figure registering the weakest performance since the height of the pandemic in a sign the economy may have contracted during the period. Industrial production rose 3.8% in March from February, as demand picked up after two straight months of declines.

In India, domestic markets have been marching higher to new peaks in recent days, driven by sustained inflows of domestic funds and a positive economic outlook. However, on Friday, the market took a sharp turn lower amid selling pressure in key index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and Larsen & Toubro. Investors are now closely watching Q4 corporate earnings from Indian companies. Meanwhile, Indian retail investors, HNIs, and DIIs are dominating while FIIs are losing influence. Following the announcement from the US Federal Reserve, expectations of an interest rate cut have been pushed back to November this year. With interest rates likely to stay higher for a longer period and bond yields remaining elevated, we may continue to see foreign players on the sell side.

On the commodity market front, the commodity market witnessed a significant downturn across various sectors this week. CRB Index closed near 331. Bullion, including gold and silver, experienced consecutive declines for the second week. Overall trend of gold and silver is still firm and they can trade in the range of 69000-72000 levels and 78000-82500 levels. While natural gas prices showed some recovery, crude oil prices took a sharp fall. Brent and WTI futures were set to lose between 5% and 6% last week, amid a storm of negative cues for crude markets. An unexpected build in U.S. inventories and data showing increased production suggested that oil markets were not as tight as traders were initially hoping. Crude oil is likely to trade in a range of 6450-6800 levels. RBA Interest Rate Decision, BoE Interest Rate Decision, GDP of UK, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting, Unemployment Rate of Canada, and Michigan Consumer Sentiments Prel etc are few high important data scheduled this week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in 58.8 in April 2024 as compared to 59.1 in March 2024. It was the second-best improvement in the health of the sector for three-and-a-half years. Indian manufacturers reported robust demand for their goods in April, from domestic and external clients. Total new orders rose sharply, with the pace of expansion being the second strongest since the start of 2021.
Finance
  • Bajaj Finance said that the RBI, based on the remedial actions taken by the company, has conveyed its decision of lifting the said restrictions on eCOM and online digital 'Insta EMI Card', with immediate effect
Mining & Metals
  • NMDC increased prices of lump ore by Rs 400 per tonne to Rs 6,200 per tonne and fines by Rs 200 per tonne to Rs 5,260 per tonne.
  • Jindal Stainless has announced a three-pronged investment strategy worth Rs 5,400 crore as part of its expansion plan.
  • Vedanta is planning to invest $20 billion in India across all its business over the next four years. The investments would be focused into the glass and semiconductors business, electronics, among other businesses.
Capital Goods
  • KEC International received new orders worth Rs 1,036 crore across various businesses. The company has received transmission and distribution projects in the Middle East and the US.
Fertilizers
  • Coromandel International has commenced activity to set up its 1000-crore plus phosphoric acid and sulfuric acid plants at Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers has received Ministry of Chemicals approval for the revised investment worth Rs 2,170 crore in Talcher Fertilizers. Talcher Fertilizers is a JV between the company, GAIL, Coal India, and Fertilizer Corp.
Infrastructure Developers & Operators
  • Rail Vikas Nigam has emerged as the lowest bidder for a project worth Rs 390.97 crore from Eastern Railway. The company will do construction of Sitarampur bye pass line under Asansol division of Eastern Railway.
Auto ancillaries
  • Happy Forgings has received an order for supply of axle components for electric SUVs in US passenger vehicle segment from a leading global manufacturer and supplier of automotive components. The supplies commence from Q3FY25 upto Fy2032.

PIVOT SHEET

CORPORATE ACTION

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • U.S Commerce Department said factory orders shot up by 1.6% in March 2024 after jumping by a downwardly revised 1.2% in February 2024.
  • A report released by the Labor Department showed labor productivity in the U.S. increased by less than expected in the first quarter of 2024.
  • US PMI Composite Output Index expended to 52.2 in March 2024 as compared to 52.5 in February at 2-month low.
  • In support of its goals, U.S Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%.
  • U.S Labor Department said labor productivity rose by 0.3% in the first quarter after spiking by a revised 3.5% in the fourth quarter.
  • UK manufacturing activity slid into contraction at the start of the second quarter as improvement in output and new orders were short-lived amid uncertain market conditions, client destocking and supply chain disruptions.
  • UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.1 in April from a 20- month high of 50.3 in March. The score was above the flash estimate of 48.7.
  • Japan's consumer confidence index dropped to 38.3 in April from 39.5 in March, lowest level in three months
  • China manufacturing sector continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower pace, at 50.4, that exceeded expectations for a score of 50.3 but was still down from 50.8 in March.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

DABUR INDIA LIMITED

CMP: 531.25

Target Price: 634

Upside: 19%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 596.90/489.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 94139.58
  • EPS (Rs.) 10.40
  • P/E Ratio (times) 51.08
  • P/B Ratio (times) 9.54
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.12
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Dabur India is among the top four FMCG companies in India. It is the world's largest Ayurvedic and Natural Health Care Company. Its portfolio includes 8 distinct Power Brands such as Dabur Chyawanprash, Dabur Honey, Dabur Honitus, Dabur PudinHara and Dabur tal Tail In the Healthcare space; Dabur Amla and Dabur Red Paste in the Personal Care category; and Real jn the Food & beverages space.
  • Its rural coverage during the year expanded by 22,000 villages to 122,000 villages. Its rural distribution has, in fact, been the highest in the industry, giving us distinct advantage and helping the company to drive rural growth. These ahead of curve investments have resulted in rural business growing 400 bps ahead of urban. The rural market with the launch of newer affordable and rural-specific packs across categories to feed these markets and push demand growth. It has also invested in consumer activations in the hinterland to better reach out to consumers, giving them an opportunity to touch, feet and experience the products.
  • Its FMCG Business posted a volume growth of 5.5% for the full year. The India Business saw its key brands and products post categoryleading growths with market share gains across 95% of the portfolio.
  • Its Oral care business grew by 22% with the toothpaste business reporting a 23% jump during the quarter. Dabur's oral care penetration now stands at 52%.
  • The firm's digestive business, led by strong performance of Hajmola, ended the quarter up 16%. The Home Care business, on the back of strong performance of mosquito repellents, ended the quarter with a 7.5% growth. The Shampoo portfolio also reported an over 6% jump during the quarter. The company's foods business, including Badshah, grew by 20.6%.
  • It has also delivered strong performance in the overseas arkets, with the international business reporting a constant currency growth of 112% in the fourth quarter. During the quarter, the Egypt business grew by 63%. While Turkey business was up 39% and Middle East & North Africa (MENA) markets posted a growth of 6.3%. The Sub-Saharan Africa business rose 23.8%

Risk

  • Commodity Inflation
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

According to the management of the company, strong execution of its power brand strategy, increased premiumisation, and distribution footprint expansion coupled with the benefits of its stringent cost reduction actions the firm to report a steady performance during the fourth quarter and the full year 2023-24. Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, the company remained focused on rolling its consumer-centric innovation and investing heavily behind its brands, which increased by 33%, to drive demand and also sustain the growth momentum. Moreover, it continued to execute on its strategic playbook by driving operational excellence, delivering innovative and premium products, and expanding its retail footprint to build the foundation for long-term profitable, sustainable growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.634 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on a one average P/BV of 10.47x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.60.57.

PNC INFRATECH LIMITED

CMP: 441.10

Target Price: 533

Upside: 21%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 479.15/279.55
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 11315.94
  • EPS (Rs.) 24.63
  • P/E Ratio (times) 17.91
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.68
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.11
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • PNC Infratech Limited is a leading infrastructure developer in India with strong capabilities The Company has successfully executed more than 86 major infrastructure projects across the country with over 60 projects in roads and highways sector. It is currently executing 25 projects.
  • The Company, along with its wholly owned subsidiary, PNC lnfra Holdings Limited has signed a Master Securities Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Highways Infrastructure Trust (HIT), an Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) to divest 12 of the Company's road assets (11 National Highway HAM assets and 1 State Highway BOT Toll asset of approximately 3,800 total lane kms, located in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Rajasthan). The Enterprise Value of the Transaction is INR 9,005.7 Crores. This translating to an equity value of Rs 2,902 crore (including cash) on invested equity of Rs 1,740 crore. The proposed disinvestment is aligned with the Company's strategic objective of recycling the capital invested in operating road assets to leverage the ambitious growth vision
  • It has robust unexecuted order book of over Rs. 17,380 crores as on 31st December 2023, which include EPC value of about Rs. 5,580 crores of the five new HAM projects. Out of the unexecuted order book, highway and expressway contracts contribute around 75%, while water projects contribute around 25%.
  • The company has achieved notable progress in Rural Drinking Water Projects under the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) during the first three quarters of the current financial year.
  • In Q3FY2024, the company received provisional completion certificate for 2 HAM projects of NHAI located in the state of Uttar Pradesh. It achieved the financial closures for all 4 HAM projects which are Prayagraj Kaushambi Highway Package 3 and Packages 2, 3 and 4 of Varanasi - Ranchi - Kolkata Greenfield Highway
  • Recently, it has executed concession agreement for a HAM project with M.P. Road Development Corporation Ltd. (MPRDC) (the "Authority") for bid project cost of Rs. 1174.00 crore..

Risk

  • Economic Slowdown
  • High Commodity Prices

Valuation

The company has strong order book which indicates future growth visibility. Recently, it has signed a Master Securities Purchase Agreement (SPA) for asset monetization of 12 road assets would strengthen the balance sheet of the company and help drive future growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 533 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on a target P/BVx of 2.5x and FY25 BVPS of Rs. 213.39.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

ASHOK LEYLAND LIMITED (ASHOKLEY)

The stock closed at Rs.202.30 on 03rd May, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.143.20 on 03rd May, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.205.10 on 03rd May 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 172.

For the past eight to nine months, the stock has consolidated within the broader range of 160-190, consistently maintaining levels above its 200-day exponential moving average on daily charts. Last week, the stock reached a new 52-week high, breaking out above the significant resistance level of 190. This fresh breakout, following a prolonged consolidation phase, indicates renewed bullish momentum. The emergence of follow-up buying suggests further upside potential for the stock. Therefore, one can buy the stock on dips in the range of 195-200 levels for the upside target of 230- 232 levels with SL below 175 levels.

THE FEDERAL BANK LIMITED (FEDERALBNK)

The stock closed at Rs.165.95 on 03rd May, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.121 on 26th June, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.170.30 on 02nd May 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 663.

Over the past six months, the stock had been consolidating within a range of 145-165 levels, with prices consistently staying above its 200-day exponential moving average on daily and weekly charts. Recently, a significant breakout occurred into the stock, as momentum seen surpassing above its key resistance level of 165 after the prolonged consolidation. This breakout signals heightened momentum and a continued bullish trend. The price action is accompanied with rising volumes which suggests further positive moves for the stock .Therefore, one can buy the stock in range of 163-165 for the upside target of 198-199 levels with SL below 150 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

In the previous week, Nifty saw a flat closing and also formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. In contrast, Banknifty outperformed Nifty, wrapping up the week with a 1.5% gain. Profit-taking seen in IT and media stocks, while PSU and financial services stocks emerged as major gainer. From the derivative front, Nifty options showed the highest call open interest at the 22,800 and 23,000 strikes, while the highest put open interest was noted at the 22,000 and 22,500 strike. For Bank nifty, the highest call open interest was at the 49,500 strike, while the highest put open interest was observed at the 48,500 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 11.76% and put options concluded at 12.57%. The India VIX, a crucial market volatility indicator, ended the week at 13.45%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.39 for the week. Presently, both indices have developed a negative divergence pattern, with the rising India VIX suggesting a limited upside potential. In the upcoming session, Nifty is anticipated to trade within the range of 22,700 to 22,200.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 02.05.2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices extended its gains further on increased buying interest as open interest surged sharply with significant gains. Lingering concerns over bleak supply prospects backed by lower production helped prices to move to the record high level of 20174. However, some profit booking was seen in second half of week but prices remained higher by more than 5% on weekly basis. Arrival pace was noted slower as compared to last year due to lower production in year 2024. Production is likely to be dropped by about 16% Y-o-Y due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield and may stand at 9.7 lakh tonnes. Supplies of turmeric are expected to improve in coming weeks as harvesting activities have completed on positive note. Reports of sluggish exports will also lead to profit booking in this counter. Turmeric exports dropped again Y-o-Y for 8th consecutive month in Feb'24 with reduced buying by Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arab. Total turmeric export during Apr'23-Feb'24 reported at 155.58 K tonnes down by 9% Y-o-Y. Turmeric prices are expected to trade in range of 18100-20400.

Jeera futures witnessed sharp gains during the week tracking robust export enquires in the market. Global trade disruption followed by mounting geopolitical tension in Middle East region reflected as rise in export demand of Indian jeera. Improved wedding season demand and rising local buying by hotel and Restaurant segment helped prices to trade on positive bias. However surging arrival pressure will restrict the major gains in prices. Arrivals have been higher by about 28% in Apr'24 as compared to last year. About 45 thousand tonnes of jeera arrived at major APMC mandies across India in Apr'24. Export demand is expected to increase at prevailing rate that will support upward movement in Jeera. India exported 10.96 thousand tonnes of jeera in Feb'24 as compared to 11.36 thousand tonnes previous year down by 3.4% Y-o-Y. Jeera export from India was noted down by 23.7% Y-o-Y during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24 but expected to increase in coming months. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 23500-27500.

Dhaniya prices traded on weaker note in the wake of adequate supply situation in the market that kept buyers away from bulk buying. Heavy carry forward stocks and increased supplies of new crop are likely to keep prices under pressure. However, total arrivals in Apr'24 have been down by 41% as compared to Mar'24 as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in expectation of further rise in prices. Robust export will restrict the losses. Dhaniya export rose 35% Y-oY in Feb'24 to 4.6 thousand tonnes as per recent government official release. Overall export of dhaniya reached to 71.18 thousand tonnes during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24. Bleak supply outlook will keep the major trend positive in dhaniya as production is likely to be down about 10-15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6800-7800 levels.

BULLIONS

Gold prices experienced a second consecutive weekly decline, as investors exercised caution ahead of the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's policy stance. After hitting a record high of $2,431.29 in April, prices dropped by $130 due to diminishing concerns about geopolitical risks and a hawkish repricing in rates markets. The Federal Reserve's announcement indicated a leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs, but it expressed concern over recent disappointing inflation readings, potentially delaying rate cuts. Market sentiment, as reflected by CME's FedWatch Tool, suggests a 73% probability of a rate cut in November. Despite these developments, central bank buying surged in the first three months of the year, with emerging markets driving the majority of purchases. Additionally, over-thecounter demand saw significant growth, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. This heightened demand contrasted with profit-taking among U.S. and European investors. Although gold is traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, its appeal waned in the face of elevated interest rates. However, softer inflation data could provide support for prices, while stronger-than-expected reports may exert downward pressure. Looking ahead, on Comex, gold prices may find support near $2230 and resistance near $2360. On the MCX, gold is projected to trade within the range of 69500-71600 levels. Meanwhile, silver prices are anticipated to dip towards the $25-$26 breakout area on COMEX, with potential for a bullish reversal, and could trade between $27.80-29.20 and on MCX prices likely to trade in the range of 79300-82500 levels. Despite current challenges, gold's outlook remains positive in the near term, underpinned by continued central bank buying and robust demand from emerging markets.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices dropped by more than 5% as worries about a conflict in the Middle East diminished. Additionally, robust US crude supplies and increasing uncertainty regarding demand further pressured oil prices. Egypt tried to get Israel and Hamas revive stalled peace talks, and with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging Hamas to accept Israel's ceasefire offer. In the US, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant 7.3 million barrel surge in crude stockpiles in the latest week. Crude production in February reached 13.15 million barrels per day, the highest in nearly three and a half years. Diminished prospects for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continued to dampen overall demand outlook. OPEC+ hinted at extending voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day beyond June if oil demand fails to rebound. Market attention turned to US economic data and indicators of future crude supply. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly nonfarm payroll report, crucial for assessing the country's job market strength, impacting Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Higher interest rates typically dampen economic activity and subsequently oil demand. Additionally, energy services firm Baker Hughes is set to publish its weekly count of oil and gas rigs on Friday, offering insights into future crude output. Looking ahead, crude oil prices are anticipated to trade within the range of 6450-6950 levels. US natural gas futures surged to a three-month high due to a more balanced supply/demand scenario, supported by increased feedgas flows to Freeport LNG, reduced US production, and Chesapeake Energy's decision to maintain output curtailments. Favorable weather forecasts for Texas could also boost demand for power generation. Natural gas prices are expected to trade between 155-178 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metal prices may trade with bearish bias due to profit booking on higher level as market focus shifted towards demand conditions in China, the world's leading consumer of the metal. The slowdown in China's property and construction sectors has weighed on base metals markets. Data showed recently that growth slowed in China's manufacturing and services sectors in April, suggesting a loss of momentum for the world's second-biggest economy. However China's ruling Communist Party also vowed to examine measures to tackle the nation's excess housing inventory, signalling stepped-up help for a protracted property crisis. Copper may trade in the range of 830-855. Flourishing activity in the electric vehicle, power infrastructure, AI and automation sectors will lead to at least 10 million metric tons of additional copper consumption over the next decade, commodity trader Trafigura told Reuters. But the growing concern that Chinese copper supplies are increasing due to weakening demand as economic activity remains soft. The International Copper Study Group said the global copper market faces a surplus of 162,000 this year. Zinc can trade in range of 245-265. The zinc supply expected to rise as Nyrstar's Budel smelter will resume production during the week of May 13. Lead can move in the range of 187-194. Aluminium can trade in the range of 225-235. Data showed that LME on-warrant inventories of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses rebounded by 88,625 tons, which was linked to recent UK and U.S. sanctions on Russian metal. Despite the global regulatory environment, China exhibited robust demand for aluminium, with imports of unwrought aluminium and products surging by 89.8% in March, reaching 380,000 metric tons.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 876.45
M*.Low: 709.35

It closed at Rs.845.95 on 02nd May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 837.08. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.40. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 853 for a target of Rs. 830 with the stop loss of 860.

NATURAL GAS MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 197.80
M*.Low: : 159.30

It closed at Rs. 170.00 on 02nd May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 167.78. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.358. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.167 for a target of Rs. 180 with the stop loss of 160.

GUARGUM NCDEX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 11335.00
M*.Low: 9866.00

It closed at Rs. 10871.00 on 02nd May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 10898.66. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.66. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.10900 for a target of Rs.10000 with the stop loss of 11300.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The World Gold Council's Q1 2024 report reveals that total global gold demand was up 3% year-on-year to 1,238t, marking the strongest first quarter since 2016.
  • Total gold imports in India in Q1 2024 were 179.4 tonne, up by 25 per cent compared to 143.4 tonne in Q1 2023, the World Gold Council said.
  • The global copper market faces a surplus of 162,000 metric tons this year and a surplus of 94,000 tons in 2025, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.
  • Global crude steel output declined by 4.3 per cent in March 2024 to 161.2 million tonnes (mt) compared with 168.4 mt in the corresponding period a year ago. According to the World Steel Association, top producer China's output plunged to 88.3 mt in March, down by 7.8 per cent from the year-ago period. India reported a 7.8 per cent rise in production at 12.7 mt.
  • The production of gold from Indian mines surged by 86 per cent in February this year to 255 kg while that of copper increased by 28.7 per cent to 11,000 tonnes, according to data released by the Ministry of Mines.
  • On the back of a significant increase in rice procurement from the rabi crop in Telangana, the total procurement in the 2023-24 season (October-September) was 47.03 million tonnes (mt) until April 30 against 49.88 mt a year ago, down by 6 per cent.
  • With the pickup in pace of wheat procurement, the deficit has narrowed down to 8 per cent as of April 30 from 25 per cent a week ago. However, the likely lower than expected procurement in key states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh may make it tough for the Centre to meet the overall procurement target of 372.9 lakh tonnes for the season.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

The commodity market witnessed a significant downturn across various sectors this week. CRB Index closed near 331. Fed kept interest rate unchanged as expected. Bullion, including gold and silver, experienced consecutive declines for the second week. While natural gas prices showed some recovery, crude oil prices took a sharp fall. An unexpected build in U.S. inventories and data showing increased production suggested that oil markets were not as tight as traders were initially hoping. This was coupled with easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas continued negotiations over a potential ceasefire. Profit-taking led to a dip in copper and lead prices after a prolonged rally, whereas aluminum surged from around 197 to nearly 256 before settling near 231 as traders opted to secure profits. Data showed that LME on-warrant inventories of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses rebounded by 88,625 tons, which a trader said was linked to recent UK and U.S. sanctions on Russian metal. Zinc, however, continued its upward trend for the fifth consecutive week. On Tuesday data showed that growth slowed in China's manufacturing and services sectors in April, suggesting a loss of momentum for the world's second-biggest economy. China's copper producers are planning to export up to 100,000 tons of the metal. The International Copper Study Group said the global copper market faces a surplus of 162,000 this year

Castor seed faced relentless declines for the sixth week straight, while sun oil ended the week in the red. Cotton futures, which had soared to 63500, are now undergoing a correction phase, closing near 57000. Kapas followed a similar downward trajectory. Cotton oil seeds cake futures maintained a range-bound trading pattern with a bias towards the upside. Guar prices declined after a six-week rally. Among spices, jeera prices surged due to fresh buying with improved buying activities in local market. Improved wedding season demand and rising local buying by hotel and Restaurant segment helped prices to trade on positive bias, while turmeric prices managed to end higher. Arrival pace of Turmeric has been slower as compared to last year as about 24.67 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived in Apr'24 at major PMC mandies against the 73.25 thousand tonnes of previous year. Dhaniya witnessed bearish trends, whereas mentha oil prices saw an increase for the second consecutive week.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Global Gold Demand…… Central Banks Again on Front Foot amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Yellow metal is always the prominent choice among the investors to park their money and diversifying their portfolio in troubled times of geopolitical uncertainty, pandemic related environment and global economic slowdown concerns. In times of current global crisis and uncertainty, gold has become the most reliable reserve for global central banks as well. Geopolitical crises, supply chain difficulties and surging inflation weighed heavily on the global economy and reinvigorated investor interest, pushing the gold price briefly to USD 2,448 an ounce in April.

  • The World Gold Council's Q1 2024 report reveals that total global gold demand was up 3% year-on-year to 1,238t, marking the strongest first quarter since 2016
  • Central banks continued to buy gold apace, adding 290t to official global holdings during the quarter
  • People's Bank of China carried its recent momentum into Q1, reporting an addition of 27t to its gold reserves during the quarter
  • The Reserve Bank of India grew its gold reserves by 19t during the first quarter, exceeding last year's annual net purchases (16t).
  • The Central Bank of Turkey continued to accumulate gold through Q1. It bought a further 30t, bringing its gold reserves to 570t.

Turkey, China and India led the way as buying outweighed sales during Q1

  • Bar and coin investment increased 3% year - on - year , remaining steady at the same levels from Q4 2023 at 312t.
  • Global jewellery demand remained resilient, despite record-high prices, only falling 2% year-on-year.
  • Industrial demand for gold in Q1 rose by 10% y/y to 79t. This growth was driven by a recovering electronics sector, which saw a 13% y/y rise to 64t. On the supply side, mine production increased 4% year-on-year to 893t - a record first quarter.
  • India's gold demand rose 8 per cent annually to 136.6 tonnes in the March quarter helped by a strong economic environment despite prices touching historic highs, according to the World Gold Council.
  • Q1 saw healthy levels of gold bar and coin investment in India, up 19% y/y at 41t.
  • Gold jewellery demand in India was 95t, 4% above the comparatively weak Q1'23. India's continued strong macroeconomic environment was supportive for gold consumption.
  • Total gold imports in India in Q1 2024 were 179.4 tonne, up by 25 per cent compared to 143.4 tonne in Q1 2023, the Council said.

Considering the current market conditions, the World Gold Council's outlook remains bullish, fuelled by the persistent allure of gold for both central banks and investors seeking stability in a volatile world. Investment demand is also expected to r e m a i n s t r o n g a s t h e combination of high inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions will likely to push demand for gold amongst investors. The stellar run up in price in the recent weeks will likely prompt a rise in recycling supply and a fall in jewellery demand, although elevated geopolitical risk and the high demand of jewellery in some countries may limit the impact.

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee remained mostly stable this week, supported by a weakening dollar globally, which experienced a 0.7% decline, its worst performance since March. The dollar's fall was driven by its weakening against most currencies, particularly due to the yen's significant rise following intervention by Japanese authorities. On top of that U.S Treasury yields slipped straight after the FOMC meeting which pushed the dollar lower. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68% chance of a rate cut in November, rising to 80% in December, according to CME's Fed Watch tool. The rate futures market has also priced in just one rate cut of 25 bps this year, from as much as six at the beginning of 2024. Attention now shifts to U.S. non-farm payrolls to define the next dollar leg move next week, with forecasts suggesting a slower pace of growth in April. However, any increase in wage growth could bolster the dollar. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hint at potential rate cuts based on data dependency earlier this week also supported emerging market currencies, including the rupee. Expectations for the rupee next week are a range-bound bias, possibly fluctuating between 83.20 to 83.50. Meanwhile, the euro and pound saw gains this week, with the pound expected to be supported by the upcoming Bank of England MPC meeting, where a less dovish stance is anticipated compared to previous meetings.

USDINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Sideways trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.38. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 83.15 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.7 levels.

GBPINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.38. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 103.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 105.5 levels.

EURINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 89.3. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 88.65 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.15 levels.

JPYINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 54.04. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 53.45 levels, while resistance is expected near 55.35 levels.

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IPO

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Groww Mutual Fund launches Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index Fund

Groww Mutual Fund on Thursday announced the launch of India's first Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index Fund. The New Fund Offer (NFO) or the scheme will be available for subscription till May 16. The fund, an open-ended scheme, aims to generate long-term capital growth by investing in securities of the Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index (TRI) in the same proportion or weightage, Groww Mutual Fund said in a statement. The New Fund Offer (NFO) or the scheme will be available for subscription till May 16. The fund, an open-ended scheme, aims to generate long-term capital growth by investing in securities of the Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index (TRI) in the same proportion or weightage, Groww Mutual Fund said in a statement. TRI stands for Total Return Index. ”The Groww Nifty Non-Cyclical Index fund is India's first index fund, which enables people to invest in the top stocks from consumer industries such as FMCG, Textiles, etc. These companies manufacture items we need in our daily lives and tend to be slightly more insulated from economic cycles and therefore are seen as non-cyclical sectors.

Edelweiss Mutual Fund launches Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 Index Fund

Edelweiss Mutual Fund has launched Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 Index Fund. Edelweiss Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 Index Fund is an open-ended scheme replicating the Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 Index. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on May 10. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30-TRI and will be managed by Bhavesh Jain. This fund is an ideal solution for investors seeking to invest in largecap oriented strategy that can outperform the broader market. This multi-factor approach, blending Alpha and low volatility factors, aims to deliver performance, while mitigating volatility, thereby enhancing risk-adjusted returns for investors. Edelweiss AMC has established itself as a leader in the passive funds category, managing the largest portfolio of passive debt funds. The introduction of this new equity index fund further bolsters our product line-up in the equity passive fund segment,” said Radhika Gupta, MD & CEO, Edelweiss Mutual Fund. The scheme offers regular and direct plans both with growth and Income Distribution cum Capital Withdrawal (IDCW) options.

Axis Mutual Fund launches Axis Nifty Bank Index Fund

Axis Mutual Fund has announced the launch of Axis Nifty Bank Index Fund, an open-ended index fund tracking the Nifty Bank TRI. This open-ended index fund aims to track the Nifty Bank TRI, providing investors with a mechanism to participate directly in the growth narrative of leading Indian banks, the fund house said in a release. The new fund offer or NFO will open for subscription on May 3 and close on May 17. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty Bank TRI. It will be managed by Karthik Kumar and Ashish Naik. The minimum investment amount will be Rs 500 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The exit load applicable will be 0.25% if redeemed/ switched out within seven days from the date of allotment/ investment and no exit load if redeemed/ switched out after seven days from the date of allotment/ investment. "India's economic rise is a compelling narrative driven by several factors. If addressed effectively, our growth story has the potential to propel the nation towards becoming a major global economic power. Against this backdrop, India's banking sector continues to exhibit growth and resilience,” said B. Gopkumar, MD & CEO, Axis Mutual Fund.

Nippon India Mutual Fund changes fund manager for three schemes

Nippon India Mutual Fund has changed the fund manager for its three schemes: Nippon India Small Cap Fund, Nippon India Multi Asset Fund, and Nippon India Focused Equity Fund. The fund house informed about this to its unitholders through a notice-cum-addedndum. The changes are effective from May 1. The fund house informed that two fund managers - Prateek Poddar and Tejas Sheth - have resigned from the fund house with effect from close of business hours of April 30. Nippon India Small Cap Fund is the largest scheme in the smallcap category based on assets managed. The scheme manages assets of Rs 45,749.06 crore. Nippon India Multi Asset Fund and Nippon India Focused Equity Fund manage assets of Rs 2,905.32 crore and Rs 7,607.83 crore respectively. The fund house also informed that this addendum forms an integral part of SID / KIM / SAI and all the other terms and conditions of the aforesaid document read with the addenda issued from time to time will remain unchanged.

Kotak Mutual Fund files draft documents with Sebi for three passive funds

Kotak Mutual Fund has filed draft documents with Sebi for three passive funds: Kotak MSCI India ETF, Kotak S&P BSE PSU Index Fund, and Kotak Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index Fund.

Kotak MSCI India ETF

The fund will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking the MSCI India Index. The scheme aims to replicate the composition of the MSCI India Index and generate returns that are commensurate with the performance of the MSCI India Index, subject to tracking errors. The scheme will be benchmarked against the MSCI India Index (Total Return Index).

Kotak S&P BSE PSU Index Fund

The scheme will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking the S&P BSE PSU Index. The scheme's object is to provide returns that, before expenses, correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking errors. The scheme will be benchmarked against the S&P BSE PSU Index (Total Return Index).

Kotak Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index Fund

The scheme will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking the NIFTY 100 Low Volatility 30 Index. The investment objective is to provide returns that, before expenses, correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking errors. The scheme will be benchmarked against the NIFTY 100 Low Volatility 30 Index (Total Return Index).

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts





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