Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

This week, global stock markets rose after fresh jobless claims data reached its Thighest level since August. This data rekindled expectations that central banks might reduce interest rates later in 2024. European markets closed slightly higher with most sectors and major exchanges ending positive. However, the Bank of England kept interest rates at a 16-year high, despite Governor Bailey's optimism about the economy's direction. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks fell as investors reacted to potential changes in US tariffs on China. Japan's overall household spending in March dipped slightly year-on-year, but rose slightly compared to the previous month. This exceeded expectations of a larger decrease. Despite this, Japan recorded its biggest current account surplus ever in the fiscal year ending March 2024.

Back in India, markets experienced volatility due to continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling. This volatility is likely to persist in the near term without significant positive developments. In a positive sign, rural demand for everyday consumer goods surpassed urban demand for the first time in five quarters. Additionally, car companies reported higher sales in rural areas compared to urban, indicating a potential broad economic recovery in rural India after 15 months of sluggish demand. India's inflation rate for April is expected to be slightly lower than March's 4.85%, staying within the Reserve Bank of India's target range for the eighth consecutive month. Data suggests India's fiscal deficit for the year ending March 2024 might be slightly better than the government's projection. Income tax receipts also exceeded expectations, growing by 17.7% year-onyear. The government aims for a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP for the current financial year. Markets will continue to be influenced by both domestic and global factors.

On the commodity front, after a two-week decline, commodities saw a reversal with the CRB closing near 337 levels. Energy commodities like natural gas and crude oil surged. Natural gas prices approached a 14-week high, driven by a combination of supply and demand factors that are beginning to trim the storage surplus. Buy at dip could be appropriate strategy for natural gas and it is likely to trade in a range of 185-210 level. Bullion prices rebounded after a two-week slump due as some safe haven demand also remained in play amid bets that Israel and Hamas will not reach a ceasefire deal. Gold and silver will trade in a range of 70500-73000 levels and 83000-86500 level respectively. Inflation Rate of Germany, Unemployment rate of UK, Zew Economic Sentiments Index of Euro Area and Germany, PPI, Fed Chair Powell Speech, Core Inflation, Inflation, Building Permits and Retail Sales of US, GDP and Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area etc are few high importance data, which one should watch while trading in commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • According to flash survey data from S&P Global, India's service sector activity continued to expand sharply in April, as growth in sales and output was among the fastest in fourteen years. The flash HSBC services purchasing managers' index dropped to 60.8 in April from 61.2 in March. However, a score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin received US FDA approval for Travoprost Ophthalmic Solution USP. Travoprost ophthalmic is used for the reduction of elevated intraocular pressure. The product will be manufactured at Lupin's Pithampur facility in India.
Information Technology
  • Infosys announced a strategic three-year partnership with the ABB FIA Formula E World Championship, the global motorsport championship for electric cars, as its official Digital Innovation Partner. Through this collaboration, Infosys will provide in-race analytics, unlock fan engagement experiences, and enhance sustainability reporting and tracking for the Formula E championship.
Construction
  • Brigade Group has signed a definitive agreement for a prime land parcel located on Old Madras Road, Bengaluru. Spread across 4.6 acres, the total development potential of the residential project will be around 0.69 Mn Sqft with a Gross Development Value of Rs. 660 crore.
  • Patel Engineering and its joint venture partner emerged as the lowest bidders for an irrigation project worth Rs 343 crore. The company's share in the irrigation project stands at Rs 120 crore.
Infrastructure
  • NBCC has received orders worth Rs.400 crore from the Supreme Court receiver to build unfinished projects of embattled Amrapali Group in Bhilai district, Chattisgarh and Ernakulum district in Kerala.
  • Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL) has received a Letter of Acceptance from SER HQ-Electrical/South Eastern Railway for a project worth Rs 167.3 crore.
Power
  • NTPC Green Energy has signed an MoU with Mahatma Phule Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Technology for developing renewable energy power parks and projects in Maharashtra.
Logistic
  • TVS Supply Chain Solutions secures contract from Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles for in-plant warehousing and logistics at Eicher bus factory in MPs Baggad.
Consumer Durables
  • Dixon Technologies has signed an agreement with Nokia to develop and manufacture telecom equipment such as fixed wireless access points and routers for the Finnish company, a deal which the Indian contract manufacturer said is worth Rs1,500 crore a year to start with.
Capital Goods
  • Orient Electric has commenced the Commercial Production from its greenfield manufacturing plant at Hyderabad, Telangana. Earlier, the company had expanded its already extensive lineup of air coolers with addition of new highcapacity models across Desert and Commercial categories.

PIVOT SHEET

CORPORATE ACTION

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • US initial jobless claims climbed to 231,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level of 209,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 210,000 from the 208,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US wholesale inventories fell by 0.4 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February. The decrease by wholesale inventories matched economist estimates.
  • The Bank of England left its key policy rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting and signaled that the first rate cut since 2020 is on the horizon. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25 percent again in a split vote. The current bank rate is the highest since early 2008.
  • Japan posted a current account surplus of 3.398 trillion yen in March, up 44 percent from the previous year. That was shy of expectations for a surplus of 3.489 trillion yen but was up from 2.644 trillion yen in February.
  • The average of household spending in Japan was down 1.2 percent on year in March, coming in at 318,713 yen. That beat forecasts for a decline of 2.3 percent following the 0.5 percent drop in February.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

CASTROL INDIA LIMITED

CMP: 191.35

Target Price: 231

Upside: 21%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 230.00/111.90
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 18926.86
  • EPS (Rs.) 8.88
  • P/E Ratio (times) 21.55
  • P/B Ratio (times) 8.92
  • Dividend Yield (%) 3.92
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Castrol India Limited is one of India's leading lubricant companies with brands such as Castrol CRB, Castrol GTX, Castrol Activ, Castrol POWER1, Castrol MAGNATEC and Castrol VECTON, which are the brands of choice for millions of consumers and customers across the country. Castrol has a large manufacturing and distribution network in India with three blending plants and a distribution network of 350 distributors and over 100,000 retail outlets
  • In India, the Castrol continues its dedicated provision of crucial EV fluids to OEM partners. Furthering its commitment to India's electrification, it has trained over 1,000 independent car and bike mechanics. As part of its onward, upward, forward strategy, the global brand has introduced Castrol ON immersion cooling fluids for data centres.
  • The company is focusing on strengthening its brand and in this direction recently it has teamed up with KTM powering the upcoming second season of its much-awaited KTM Cup 2024 (Racing Championship) as the official Performance Partner. It also team up with Mumbai Indians for cricketing league in 2024. The company also announces its strategic association with Shah Rukh Khan, the iconic Bollywood superstar, as its brand ambassador for next two years.
  • Its newly launched products, Castrol MAGNATEC SUV-530 and Castrol CRB ESSENTIAL are gaining traction across various price segments. It has introduced bottles with 30% postconsumer recycled or PCR content and achieved 100% renewable electricity at its Patalganga plant.

It has expanded its footprint to over 9000 multi-brand passenger car workshops - showcasing a remarkable double digit growth quarter on quarter - and close to 28000 independent bike workshops, adding more than 1000 outlets quarter on quarter.

Significantly broadened its reach, with its products now accessible in over 33,500 outlets nestled deep in the hinterland. Thus reaching out to rural Bharat.

During the first quarter ending March 2024, revenue from operations grew to Rs. 1,325 Crores, up 2%YoY and 5% QoQ. It reported PAT of Rs. 216 Crores, up 7% YoY. According to the management, the successful launch of innovative products last quarter significantly expanded its market share across segments. The ongoing initiatives, including campaigns like BadhteRahoAage and Castrol CRB TURBOMAX Pragati Ki Paathshaala, are gaining traction and set to propel further momentum.

Risk

  • Economic Slowdown
  • High Commodity Prices

Valuation

The company has strong market share across segments and enjoy brand power. It is strategically positioned to capitalize on trends such as the surge in SUVs and CNG-powered vehicles. Its relentless product innovation and strengthened presence in rural markets auger well for the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 231 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BVx of 10.20x and CY25 BVPS of Rs. 22.64.

HERITAGE FOODS LIMITED

CMP: 345.00

Target Price: 452

Upside: 31%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 365.40/180.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3201.46
  • EPS (Rs.) 9.05
  • P/E Ratio (times) 38.12
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.32
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.75
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • Heritage Foods, one of the fastest growing and second largest private dairy companies in India, stands as a beacon of well-being and joy in the world of nutrition. Today it is bringing health and happiness to over 10 million consumers every day. Its milk and milk products have a market presence in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Odisha, NCR Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. The company has 17 State-of-the-art milk processing facilities with a total processing capacity of 2.68 Mn litres per day (MLPD), and 210 Chilling Units with 2.28 MLPD milk chilling capacity
  • In a recent survey of top 20 food companies in India by “access to nutrition index” (ATNI), Heritage was rated No.1 on the healthiest product portfolio. Heritage Foods boasts an extensive and diverse range of dairy-based products. It also enjoys long-term relationships with over 0.3 million farmers and has a vast distribution network across the country, comprising 6,500+ distributors and agents.
  • On the development front, it has recently launched Heritage happiness Centres - branded stores which act as sales and distribution points as well as milk booths known as Heritage Parlours and also increased its presence in commercial channels such as ZEPTO to foray deeper into the market.
  • In line with that, it has also tied up with 27 organised retail chains such as Reliance Retail, DMART, Big - Basket and 16 E-Commerce websites. The company is strengthening its procurement and distribution capabilities.
  • The company launched Premium Buffalo Milk with 7% fat in Hyderabad branded 'Goodness from Village' and also launched Cow Ghee 50ml and 100ml jars primarily as a pooja pack, gaining traction in temple markets and in e-commerce.
  • The management of the company plans to expand deeper into metros and Tier-II cities to reach its milestone of Rs.6000 crore in revenues in the next 3-4 years and EBITA is likely to maintain upto 7-8% level. The company is also planning to grow the value-added product (VAP) portfolio by 18-20 percent in the near term. The management has guided the capex spends are expected to 100 crore every year.

Risk

  • Commodity Inflation
  • Economic Slowdown

Valuation

The company has a strong balance sheet with low debt, improving margins and operating cash flows. The company has emerged as one of the largest private dairies in South India and its influence extends to select North Indian states as well. Going forward, an increase in contribution from value-added-products and operating efficiencies would help to improve the operating margins. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.452 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on an expected P/BV of 4.50x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.100.40.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

BHARAT FORGE LIMITED (BHARATFORG)

The stock closed at Rs.1396.60 on 10th May, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.752.85 on 19th May, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1474.40 on 08th May 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 1117.

The stock has been exhibiting a bullish trend on its daily chart, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. It has been holding levels above its 200-day exponential moving average consistently. Recently, there was a significant breakout as the stock surged in volume, pushing it to achieve its all-time high. This fresh breakout occurring near its all-time high indicates the potential for further upward movement in the stock price. Therefore, it's advised to consider buying the stock on any dips within the range of 1380-1390 levels, targeting an upside potential of 1560-1570 levels, with a stop loss below 1270 levels.

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED (GODREJCP)

The stock closed at Rs.1328.95 on 10th May, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.948.05 on 10th May, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1372.95 on 08th May 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 1127.

On the daily chart, the stock has formed a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Back in October, it tested its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and has since consistently maintained levels above this average on the daily charts. Last week, the stock broke out of a bullish expanding triangle with a notable increase in volume. This fresh breakout, occurring near its all-time high, suggests further potential upside for the stock. Consequently, one may consider buying the stock on pullbacks within the range of 1290-1300 levels, targeting upside levels of 1470-1480, with a stop-loss below 1180 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

During the last week, both indices concluded on a negative note, with Banknifty underperforming Nifty and recording a loss exceeding 3%, while Nifty itself experienced a loss of over 1.5%. Profit booking was observed in PSU bank, PSE and media stocks, whereas FMCG and auto stocks emerged as the primary gainers. From the derivative front, Nifty options showed the highest call open interest at the 23,000 and 22,500 strikes, while the highest put open interest was noted at the 22,000 and 21,500 strike. For Bank nifty, the highest call open interest was at the 48,000 strike, while the highest put open interest was observed at the 47,500 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 13.97% and put options concluded at 14.38%. The India VIX, a crucial market volatility indicator, ended the week at 18.20%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.13 for the week. Currently, the increasing India VIX is the primary worry for the market. Traders should closely monitor this indicator because there's a negative correlation between volatility and the market, indicating limited upside potential in the present circumstances. In upcoming sessions, it's expected that the Nifty will trade within the range of 21,700 to 22,400 levels.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 09.05.2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices traded sideways to down during the week due to muted buying at prevailing levels. Buyers avoided bulk buying as prices ruled at multiyear high. Not only the domestic demand has been sluggish but export demand has been also moderated at prevailing levels will put pressure on prices. Turmeric export from India dropped 12% Y-o-y to 12.92 thousand tonnes in Feb'24 wherein total export during Apr'23-Feb'24 reported at 144.58 thousand tonnes down by 4.4 % from previous year. Overall arrival pace has been slower as compared to last year a likely to remain down with each passing week. About 9.9 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived in first 10 days of May'24 at major APMC mandies against the 20.2 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Arrivals have been lower as production is estimated to be down by 16% Y-o-Y may stand at 9.7 lakh tonnes in MY 2024-25. Total supply of turmeric is likely to be down by 16% Y-o-Y that is likely to restrict the major downfall in prices. Turmeric prices are expected to trade in range of 17700-19500 levels.

Jeera futures extended its gains with shrinking supplies in domestic market. Lowering of arrivals with each passing months sparked renewed buying in local market. About 68.8 thousand tonnes of jeera arrived in Mar'24 and it dropped to 44.68 thousand tonnes in Apr'24 and likely to remain down in May as well as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks at prevailing rate. Global trade disruption followed by geopolitical tension in Middle East region reflected as rise in export demand of Indian jeera. Improved wedding season demand and rising local buying by hotel and Restaurant segment helped prices to trade on positive bias. Export demand is expected to increase at prevailing rate that will support upward movement in Jeera. India exported 10.96 thousand tonnes of jeera in Feb'24 as compared to 11.36 thousand tonnes previous year down by 3.4% Y-oY. Jeera export from India was noted down by 23.7% Y-o-Y during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24 but expected to increase in coming months. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 23500-30000 levels.

Dhaniya prices remained under pressure due to estimates of heavy stocks in the market. Heavy carry forward stocks are likely to keep prices down in near term. However, total arrivals in Apr'24 have been down by 41% as compared to Mar'24 as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in expectation of further rise in prices. Dhaniya export rose 35% Y-o-Y in Feb'24 to 4.6 thousand tonnes as per recent government official release. Overall export of dhaniya reached to 71.18 thousand tonnes during the time period of Apr'23-Feb'24. Overall production of dhaniya is likely to be down by 26% Y-o-Y that will keep the major trend positive in dhaniya. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6800-7800 levels.

BULLIONS

Gold had its strongest week since April 5, fuelled by upbeat economic data that heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The surge came as new filings for unemployment benefits in the U.S. surpassed expectations, signalling potential economic softness. This trend, coupled with disappointing nonfarm payrolls figures, suggests a loosening job market, prompting anticipation of Fed easing starting in September. Such monetary policy shifts reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, bolstering its appeal. Attention now turns to inflation data, with reports on the U.S. producer price index and consumer price index forthcoming. These releases could sway expectations regarding the timing of rate cuts; if inflation trends lower, gold stands to benefit. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted considerable uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation outlook, adding to market anticipation. In geopolitical news, indirect negotiations in Cairo to cease hostilities in Gaza concluded without resolution, with Israel proceeding with operations in Rafah. In the global markets, gold ETFs saw net outflows of $2 billion in April, further extending aggregate monthly losses. According to the World Gold Council, gold's continued price strength, especially during the first half of April, spurred fresh buying although it failed to counter wider selling. On the Comex, gold prices breached recent resistance levels, indicating a potential target of $2420, with support at $2340. Meanwhile, silver is expected to trade within the $27.10-$29.80 range. Looking to the MCX, bullish momentum may persist for gold, trading between 71200-73900, while silver could range between 83500-88000 levels. Overall, gold's resurgence, driven by economic factors and geopolitical tensions, sets the stage for potential market shifts, with inflation data and ongoing geopolitical developments shaping investor sentiment in the week ahead.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices saw a weekly increase, bolstered by data from both the U.S. and China, the world's top consumers of crude oil. The uptick in demand, along with ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Gaza conflict, lent support to prices. In the U.S., dwindling crude inventories, attributed to heightened refinery operations, coincided with reports indicating a rise in China's oil imports compared to the previous year, signaling an uptick in trade activity. The failure of negotiations to cease hostilities between Israel and Hamas maintained concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East oil supplies. Additionally, China's rebounding exports and imports in April following a contraction in the preceding month suggested an improvement in demand, further supporting prices. As tensions persisted in Gaza, with Israeli forces reportedly targeting the city of Rafah, and indirect negotiations with Hamas yielding no results, the risk of broader regional involvement remained. Looking ahead, market volatility is expected to persist, with prices likely to react to news developments. The anticipated trading range for crude oil is projected to be between 6400-6900. Meanwhile, natural gas surged to a 15-week high, marking a 22.75% increase over the past four weeks. This rise was fuelled by a smaller-than-expected build in weekly natural gas supplies, coupled with a decline in the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs to a 2-1/2 year low of 102 rigs, as reported by Baker Hughes. In the coming week, natural gas prices are anticipated to experience mixed movements, trading within a wider range of 184-210. Overall, the outlook for both crude oil and natural gas remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and demand dynamics, with market participants closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and global economic activity.

BASE METALS

Base metal prices may trade in range with bullish bias backed by China's improved trade data and property support measures, but gains may capped due to a stronger dollar. China's exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting in the previous month, signalling an encouraging improvement in demand at home and overseas in a boost to a shaky economic recovery. China's eastern metropolis of Hangzhou said it will lift all home purchase restrictions to shore up its real estate market, raising the prospect of other cities following suit. However, data showed recently that growth slowed in China's manufacturing and services sectors in April, suggesting a loss of momentum for the world's secondbiggest economy. Copper may trade in the range of 855-880 levels. The signs of recovery in global factory activity, as well as flashes of supply tightness—especially for raw materials shipped to smelters may continue to support the prices. Copper demand is also expected to heat up as electrification gains traction in the coming years. However, Sluggish Chinese demand is reflected in copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbing to above 287,000 tonnes from around 33,000 tonnes at the start of this year. China's unwrought copper imports in April fell 7.6%from the prior month, customs data showed, as a surge in global prices dampened buying appetite. Zinc can trade in range of 254-273. Lead can move in the range of 190-198. Aluminium can trade in the range of 230-242 levels. China reported a 12.6% year-on-year increase in aluminium exports in April, contributing to a total of 1.998 million metric tons exported in the first four months of the year.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 876.45
M*.Low: 709.35

It closed at Rs.859.85 on 09th Jun 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 851.20. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.60. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 865 for a target of Rs. 885 with the stop loss of 855.

NATURAL GAS MCX
Contract: MAY
M*.High: 197.80
M*.Low: : 159.30

It closed at Rs. 190.10 on 09th May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 177.03. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.14. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.185 for a target of Rs. 205 with the stop loss of 175.

GUARGUM NCDEX
Contract: JUNE
M*.High: 11470.00
M*.Low: 9866.00

It closed at Rs. 10711.00 on 09th May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 10900.98. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.51. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.10800 for a target of Rs.10000 with the stop loss of 11200.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • As per Perth Mint, Gold coin and minted bar sales surged by 103% to 33,387 ounces in April 2024, although they were significantly lower compared to the same period last year, down by more than 55%. Silver product sales in April totalled 684,735 ounces, marking a 20.4% decrease from the previous month and nearly a 65% decline compared to the previous year.
  • The commercial banks, cooperative banks and Regional Rural Banks have disbursed Rs 24.84 trillion in 2023-24 under term and crop loans, a rise of 15% compared to FY23.
  • To increase availability of pulses, the government is aiming to import around 0.15 million tonne (MT) of desi chana (bengal gram) immediately following the recent decision to remove import duty on the pulses variety.
  • Customs data showed that China exported 520,000 mt of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in April, up 12.6% YoY; exports totalled 1.998 million mt from January to April, up 8.8% YoY.
  • The central government has permitted exports of 14,000 tons of non-basmati white rice to Mauritius, an official notification showed.
  • The government has lifted export ban on onion and imposed a minimum export price (MEP) of $550/tonne, a day after it re-introduced 40 per cent export duty.
  • After months of negotiations, Boliden has reached an agreement with worker's unions and local management to reopen the Tara operation, which is Europe's largest zinc mine.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

After a two-week decline, commodities saw a reversal with the CRB closing near 337 levels. Energy commodities like natural gas and crude oil surged. Bullion prices rebounded after a two-week slump due as some safe haven demand also remained in play amid bets that Israel and Hamas will not reach a ceasefire deal. Reports of fresh U.S. trade tariffs on China also sparked some safe haven demand. . On the MCX, gold closed above 72000, and silver closed above 85000. Base metals witnessed a positive trend with copper prices rising for the seventh consecutive week, similar to lead, while aluminum prices recovered from their lows. Zinc, which began rallying six weeks ago, reached a high of 263.8 on the MCX. Prices of most nonferrous metals rose, underpinned by renewed expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States following soft jobs data. Copper demand is also expected to heat up as electrification gains traction in the coming years. However, Sluggish Chinese demand is reflected in copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) climbing to above 287,000 tons from around 33,000 tons at the start of this year. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.19 billion in April, up 25.3% from a year earlier. Crude oil closed near 6670, while natural gas approached the 200 mark. Crude oil prices surged as data this week from the U.S. and China, the world's two largest crude users, pointed to higher demand and continuing uncertainty over the Gaza war supported prices. China's exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting in the previous month, signalling an improvement in demand. Natural gas prices approached a 14-week high, driven by a combination of supply and demand factors that are beginning to trim the storage surplus.

In agricultural commodities, castor seed prices remained weak, while sun oil prices saw renewed buying interest. Cotton futures traded sideways with a bearish bias, and guar prices experienced a second consecutive week of decline. Action was more in jeera futures where it saw massive jump then fall in the prices. Jeera futures dropped on profit booking as NCDEX imposed Event based Additional Surveillance Margin (E-ASM) of 2.5% to mitigate systemic risk especially given the increasing volatility as part of risk management measure. Arrival pace has started slowed down as stockists and farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in better prices realization.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Perth Mint: Trusted and Tested Leader in Precious Metals

The Perth Mint, owned by the government of Western Australia, is the world's largest producer of newly mined gold. Its intake each year equates to almost 75% of newly mined gold in Australia, one of the world's biggest gold producers

The Perth Mint is trusted globally for its precious metal refining and investment products and services, as a premier tourist destination and for its luxury jewellery.

In April 2024, the Perth Mint experienced a significant increase in gold product sales, doubling compared to the previous month. However, silver sales reached their lowest point since December.

Gold coin and minted bar sales surged by 103% to 33,387 ounces in April 2024, although they were significantly lower compared to the same period last year, down by more than 55%.

Conversely, silver product sales in April totalled 684,735 ounces, marking a 20.4% decrease from the previous month and nearly a 65% decline compared to the previous year.

Why sale of coin down?

The sale of coin is down due to higher price in April month. The price gain of gold was buoyed by several factors: data showing on-going central bank demand, large scale buying of future positions by commodity trades/hedge funds and then escalating geopolitical concerns. The slight easing of geopolitical concerns in the second half of the month contributed to gold price falling back as the demand for safe assets was not as pronounced.

Additionally, US Q1 2024 GDP data released late in April was softer than expected, and as a result gold slipped back. By the end of the month, it was trading below USD 2,300 on COMEX as the market waited for the next FOMC meeting for guidance on inflation targets and interest rates.

In Australian dollar terms, the gold price also moved higher in April, in line with the increase in USD terms but weighted by a slight strengthening of the Australian dollar

Silver started the month trading under USD 25 and rose on most trading days until hitting a recent high above USD 29. This gain mirrored the rise in the gold price. Silver tracked lower for the rest of the month and finished around USD 26.50.

Perth Mint sells different type of coin

The Perth Mint continues to provide refining and other services to the gold industry and manufactures many coin related numismatic items for investors and coin collectors. It is responsible for manufacturing and marketing most of Australia's legal tender precious metal coins, including proof quality Australian Nugget gold coins, Australian Platinum Koala coins, Australian Silver Kookaburra coins, Swan series coins and bullion.

Perth Mint also meets the requirements of the following global gold exchanges:

• London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) • The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) • Osaka Exchange, Ltd (OSE) • Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) • Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX).
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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

This week, the rupee's movements were limited due to strong local dollar demand, offset by mild intervention from the central bank. The one-month realised volatility of the rupee has decreased to about 2% after reaching a six-month high of 2.79% on April 19 when the rupee hit its all-time low of 83.5750. Soft U.S. data supporting potential Fed rate cuts twice this year weighed on the dollar globally, aiding the rupee at lower levels. Apparently the near term trading range still confines between 83.10 to 83.55 in the USDINR pair. Major currencies, including the yen and sterling, saw gains amid a light rally in U.S. Treasuries and commodities. However DXY nurses some losses to trade above 105.20 as well. Meanwhile the 10-year US Treasury note yield dropped to 4.457% in this week which was its lowest since April 10. Two-year yields also fell to 4.8154%, remaining within a range after reaching 4.806%, the lowest since April 5. The yield curve inversion between two-year and 10-year yields deepened to minus 36 basis points which is somehow dragging dollar lower notably against euro and pound despite ECB and BoE are turing dovish. Going forward next week markets will be closely watching April U.S. producer price index (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) out next week for signs that inflation has resumed its downward trend towards the Fed's 2% target rate. Any upside surprises will lift dollar higher sharply.

USDINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Sideways trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.41. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 83.15 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.7 levels.

GBPINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.44. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 103.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 105.5 levels.

EURINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 89.5. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.75 levels.

JPYINR (MAR) pair is currently in a Mild Bullish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 53.95. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 52.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 55 levels.

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IPO

Sanstar gets Sebi go-ahead for IPO

Plant-based specialty products firm Sanstar received 'final observations' from the Sebi for its proposed initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises a fresh issue of 4 crore shares and an offer for sale of 80 lakh shares. The company will use the proceeds on capital expenditure and prepayment and/ or repayment of borrowings. Sanstar is one of the major manufacturers of plant-based speciality products and ingredient solutions in India. The company's specialty products and ingredients add taste, texture, nutrients and increased functionality to foods as ingredients, thickening agents, stabilizers, and sweeteners, among others. It has an installed capacity of 1,100 tonnes per day through its two manufacturing facilities at Dhule in Maharashtra and Kutch in Gujarat. The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on the BSE and NSE. Pantomath Capital Advisors is the sole book-running lead manager for the IPO.

Belstar Microfin files papers for Rs 1,300-crore IPO

Muthoot Finance's microfinance arm, Belstar Microfinance, has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator SEBI to raise Rs 1,300 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). Belstar Microfinance, a Non-Banking Finance Company - Micro Finance Institution (NBFC-MFI), offers a wide range of loan products, such as micro-enterprise, small enterprise, consumer goods, festival, education and emergency loans. The IPO is a combination of a fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 1,000 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of Rs 300 crore by investor shareholders. As part of the OFS, Danish asset management firm MAJ Invest intends to offload shares worth Rs 175 crore, followed by Arum Holdings Ltd (Rs 97 crore) and Augusta Investments Zero Pte Ltd (Rs 28 crore). MAJ Invest initially invested in Belstar Microfinance in 2018 and later in 2022. At present, Muthoot Finance, which is one of the promoters, holds a little over 66% stake in Belstar Microfinance. Proceeds from the fresh issue worth Rs 760 crore will be used to meet future capital requirements towards onward lending and the remaining amount will be used for general corporate purposes. For the nine months ended December 2023, the microfinance firm reported a profit of Rs 235 crore on revenue of Rs 1,283 crore. ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, HDFC Bank and SBI Capital Markets are the book-running lead managers to the offer

Vehicle financier SK Finance files DRHP for Rs 2,200 crore IPO

The company plans to raise about Rs 2,200 crore through the public offer, which includes a fresh equity sale of Rs 500 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of Rs 1,700 crore. Under the OFS, Rajendra Kumar Setia, Rajendra Kumar Setia HUF, Evolvence Coinvest I, Evolvence India Fund III Ltd, Norwest Venture Partners X - Mauritius, TPG Growth IV SF among others will offload shares. The company proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the fresh issue towards augmenting the capital base to meet future business requirements of the company towards onward lending and general corporate purposes. SK Finance is a non-deposit non-banking finance company and has been operating in two verticals -- vehicle financing and financing for MSME companies. As of December 2023, the company has a presence across 11 states and one union territory through 535 branches. Under the vehicle financing vertical, it primarily offers a secured, granular, and retail loan portfolio for financing used and new commercial vehicles, cars, and tractors as well as new twowheelers. Under the MSME lending vertical, the company primarily lends for the working capital requirements of these businesses. These loans are fully backed by assets and are offered, primarily for income generation purposes, to the mid to low-income category of customers that are predominantly selfemployed, unbanked, or underbanked individuals in the rural and semi-urban areas of India with limited access to organized lending channels. The overall vehicle financing segment in India stood at approximately Rs 11.85 lakh crore as of FY23, witnessing a CAGR of around 11.07% from FY19, and going forward, the outstanding credit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16-18% from FY23-27 to reach approximately Rs 21 lakh crore. Kotak Mahindra Capital, Jefferies India, Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) are the book-running lead managers to the issue.

Diffusion Engineers files fresh draft IPO papers with Sebi

Engineering solutions provider Diffusion Engineers has re-filed its preliminary IPO papers with markets regulator Sebi by incorporating a new financial statement. This came after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) returned the Nagpur-based company's draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) in March. The company had last filed its draft IPO papers with Sebi on December 27. According to market sources, the IPO size could be anywhere between Rs 125 crore and Rs 150 crore. Without changing the offer size, the company filed the fresh DRHP on Saturday and included a reservation for a subscription by eligible employees in the issue along with a discount. The Initial Public Offering (IPO) with a face value of Rs 10 each is a complete fresh issuance of 98.5 lakh equity shares. Proceeds from the issue will be used by the company towards the expansion of its existing manufacturing facility and setting up a new manufacturing facility in Maharashtra. On the financial front, the company's consolidated revenue from operations rose 24.6 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) to Rs 255 crore in the financial year 2023 from Rs 204.6 crore in the preceding fiscal 2022. Profit after tax rose 30 per cent to Rs 22.14 crore in fiscal 2023 from Rs 17.05 crore in the previous financial year.

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Equity fund inflows fall 16% to Rs 18,917 crore in April, SIP book tops Rs 20,000 crore for first time

Equity mutual fund inflows fell 16.42 percent to Rs 18,917.08 crore during April on a fresh slump in investments into large-cap funds, according to the data released by the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI), the industry trade body for mutual funds on May 9. Notably, small-cap funds saw inflows to the tune of Rs 2,208.70 crore during April after witnessing small outflows during March. For the first time ever, monthly investments via systematic investment plans (SIPs) topped the Rs 20,000 crore landmark to reach a total of Rs 20,371 crore during April. As per AMFI data, SIP book was at Rs 19,271 crore in March against Rs 19,187 crore in February 2024. Meanwhile, inflows into open-ended equity funds have remained in the positive zone for the 38th straight month. Inflows into large-cap funds slumped 83 percent to Rs 358 crore in April, while mid-cap funds saw 76.19 percent jump in net investments to Rs 1,793 crore. Small-cap funds, which had seen outflows for the first time in 30 months in March, were back in the green with net inflows of Rs 2,209 crore. Sectoral and thematic funds saw the highest inflows in the equity fund category at Rs 5,166 crore. However, inflows in the segment fell 34.75 percent during the month. On the other hand, Focused Fund and tax-saving Equity Linked Savings Scheme (ELSS) categories saw net outflows of Rs 328 crore and Rs 144 crore, respectively. Meanwhile, debt funds, which had witnessed net outflows of Rs 1,98 lakh crore during March saw net investments of Rs 1.90 lakh crore during the last month. Major net investments to the tune of Rs 1.03 lakh crore were seen in the Liquid Fund category, followed by net inflows of Rs 34,084 crore in the Money Market Fund segment.

Groww Mutual Fund launches Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index Fund

Groww Mutual Fund on Thursday announced the launch of India’s first Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index Fund. The New Fund Offer (NFO) or the scheme will be available for subscription till May 16. The fund, an open-ended scheme, aims to generate long-term capital growth by investing in securities of the Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index (TRI) in the same proportion or weightage, Groww Mutual Fund said in a statement. The New Fund Offer (NFO) or the scheme will be available for subscription till May 16. The fund, an open-ended scheme, aims to generate long-term capital growth by investing in securities of the Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer Index (TRI) in the same proportion or weightage, Groww Mutual Fund said in a statement. TRI stands for Total Return Index. ”The Groww Nifty Non-Cyclical Index fund is India's first index fund, which enables people to invest in the top stocks from consumer industries such as FMCG, Textiles, etc. These companies manufacture items we need in our daily lives and tend to be slightly more insulated from economic cycles and therefore are seen as non-cyclical sectors,” Harsh Jain, Co-founder and COO, of Groww said.

Five mutual fund houses files draft offer documents with Sebi

Five mutual funds have filed draft documents with Sebi to launch new funds. These fund houses together will launch six schemes. Two drafts are filed by Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund, one by Mirae Asset Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, and Helios Mutual Fund. Out of these six funds, four funds will be passive funds (ETF and Index) and two will be sectoral funds. Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund has filed drafts for Motilal Oswal Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted Index Fund and Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund.

Motilal Oswal Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted Index Fund

Motilal Oswal Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted Index Fund will be an open-ended fund replicating / tracking the Nifty500 LargeMidSmall EqualCap Weighted Total Return Index. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted TRI. The scheme will be managed by Swapnil Mayekar, Rakesh Shetty.

Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund

Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund will be an open-ended fund replicating/tracking the Nifty India Defence Total Return Index. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty India Defence Total Return Index. The scheme will be managed by Swapnil Mayekar, Rakesh Shetty.

Mirae Asset Nifty 50 Index Fund

Mirae Asset Nifty 50 Index Fund will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking Nifty 50 Total Return Index. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 50 Total Return Index. The scheme will be managed by Ekta Gala and Vishal Singh. The minimum application amount will be Rs 5,000 per application and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The scheme will invest 95-100% in equity securities covered by Nifty 50 Total Return Index and 0-5% in money market instruments / debt securities, instruments and/or units of debt/liquid schemes of domestic mutual funds.

SBI Silver ETF FoF

SBI Silver ETF FoF will be an open ended Fund of Fund Scheme investing in SBI Silver ETF. The scheme will be benchmarked against Domestic price of silver (based on LBMA Silver daily spot fixing price). The scheme will be managed by Harsh Sethi. The scheme will invest 95-100% in units of SBI Silver ETF and 0-5% in government securities including Triparty repo and units of debt mutual fund.

ICICI Prudential Energy Opportunities Fund

ICICI Prudential Energy Opportunities Fund will be an open-ended equity scheme following the energy theme. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty Energy TRI. The scheme will be managed by Anish Tawakley, Sharmila D'Mello. The minimum application amount will be Rs 5,000 (plus in multiple of Re 1). The minimum application amount for switch ins will be Rs 5,000 and any amount thereafter.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts





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