Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, investors focused on the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference for clues about the central bank's policy outlook. Actually market’s outlook remained highly uncertain as investors weigh positive news—such as strong job growth—against worries that Fed tightening could tip the economy into recession. The central bank raised rates by three-quarters-of-a-percentage point in June and July. Its next policy meeting is in September. Euro-area economic activity declined for a second month, signaling that fears of a recession may already be coming to pass as record inflation saps demand and weakness seeps into more and more sectors. On the flip side, GDP data from the continent's largest economy, Germany, had brought relief. News that the country had narrowly avoided a contraction in the second quarter also lifted the sentiments of the investors to some extent. Chinese stock market moved higher after Beijing announces billions in infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, Industrial production in the world's third-largest economy likely slipped 0.5% in July from the previous month. The Japanese economy rebounded at a slowerthan- expected pace in the second quarter from a COVID-induced slump, while growing fears of a global slowdown are clouding the outlook for the trade-reliant nation.

Back at home, resilience could be seen in the domestic markets even amidst global volatility on the back of strong growth momentum in the economy and the steady flow of foreign funds. To note, amidst fragile global sentiments, FII buying is providing support to the market though investors are staying on the sideline. With the pick-up in market sentiments and improved economic outlook, shares of public sector banks have staged a smart comeback on the bourses. The PSU Bank index has jumped approx 16 per cent over the past three months, as against a 9-per cent rally in the benchmark Nifty50 index. Indi’s economic expansion for the quarter ending June would be announced on August 31. Fiscal deficit and core sector data for July will also be out on the same date. Apart from these, monthly PMI and auto data will also be under watch. Besides, slowing global growth coupled with central banks across the world hiking interest rates to achieve price stability will continue to keep market volatile. Thus, market will continue to take cue from the various global as well as domestic factors in coming days.

Meanwhile, Commodities saw marginal gains for nonstop third week; CRB hit the high of almost 320 levels. Dollar index couldn’t reach near the resistance of 109.27; however closed the week on a positive note. Investors are tossing up between the likelihood of a 50 or 75 basis point rate increase in September as the Fed battles inflation while facing some softer U.S. economic data. Any further upside in dollar index may exert pressure on commodities. In bullion, gold and silver can trade in a range of 51000-52500 and 54000-57000 respectively. Buy at dip strategy should be suitable for crude on natural gas as major countries are making strategic reserve ahead of winter. Crude oil can trade in a range of 7200-7830 levels. Inflation Rate of Germany and France, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing, Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate of US, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate of Germany, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, GDP Growth Rate of India, Canada, Italy and Brazil, are some high importance data scheduled this week, which can influence commodities prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001855. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with I'rom Group Co. (I'rom), a leading pharmaceutical company in Japan. Under the terms of the Agreement, I'rom will conduct clinical trials along with Lupin, register, distribute and market biosimilar Denosumab in Japan on an exclusive basis.
  • Lupin has received approval from the USFDA for Formoterol Fumarate Inhalation Solution, used in treating symptoms of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Metals
  • Hindalco Industries said the company has earmarked a total capital expenditure of about USD 8 billion over the next five years in its arm Novelis and India.
Power
  • Power Grid Corporation of India announced that pursuant to its selection as the successful bidder under Tariff based competitive bidding, has on 24 August 2022 acquired Neemuch Transmission (NTL), the Project SPV to establish "Transmission System for Evacuation of Power from Neemuch SEZ'', on build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) basis from the Bid Process Coordinator - REC Power Development and Consultancy.
  • NHPC signed an initial pact with Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) to set up a large capacity solar equipment manufacturing facility.
Auto and Auto Ancillary
  • According to the industry body ACMA, Indian auto components industry clocked its highest-ever turnover of Rs 4.2 trillion in 2021-22, registering a growth of 23 per cent on the back of strong performance in exports and aftermarket.
  • Tata Motors has signed a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Tata Power to develop a 7.25 Mwp onsite solar project at its commercial vehicle manufacturing facility. The project will be a significant move to increase the renewable energy portfolio at its manufacturing facility.
  • Samvardhana Motherson International (SAMIL) [Formerly Motherson Sumi Systems] and Ministry of Investment, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (MISA), have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which aims to identify investment development opportunities for industrial and service activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).
Oil & Gas
  • Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's top oil firm, will invest Rs 2 lakh crore to achieve net-zero operational carbon emissions by 2046. The target set is in line with India's aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2070.
  • Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has relaunched a tender to sell gas from its KG fields at a higher price of USD 15 per mmBtu as it looks to capitalise on a global surge in energy prices.
  • Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd has formed a joint venture with its parent company Indian Oil Corp and others to build a 9 MMTPA refinery at a cost of Rs 31,580 crore in Tamil Nadu.
Bank
  • HDFC Bank has entered into an indicative and non-binding term sheet with Go Digit Life Insurance, wherein the bank is looking to invest around Rs 120 crore in the company for a 9.94 per cent stake.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US durable goods orders edged down by less than a tenth of a percent in July after surging by a revised 2.2 percent in June. Economists had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.6 percent compared to the 2.0 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.
  • The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in August, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.0. That's down from 52.1 in July, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50.
  • UK retail sales volumes rose by 0.3 per cent in July this year following a fall of 0.2 per cent in June. Sales volumes were 2.3 per cent above their February 2020 levels, but down over the past year. Clothing stores sales volumes fell by 1.2 per cent in July, following a fall of 3.9 per cent in June this year.
  • Hong Kong’s Consumer price inflation rose to a 7-month high of 1.9 percent in July from 1.8 percent in June. This was just below the expected rate of 2.0 percent. The latest upturn in inflation was largely driven by a 15.1 percent surge in charges for electricity, gas, and water.
  • Hong Kong's merchandise exports decreased for the third straight month in July, while imports fell for the first time in four months. Exports fell 8.9 percent year-on-year in July, faster than the 6.4 percent decrease in June. Imports declined notably by 9.9 percent annually in July, reversing a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

ICICI BANK LIMITED
CMP: 870.90
Target Price: 1038
Upside: 19%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 887.25/642.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 606330.11
  • EPS (Rs.) 36.81
  • P/E Ratio (times) 23.66
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.48
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.57
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • ICICI Bank is a leading private sector bank in India. The bank had a network of 5,534 branches and 13,379 ATMs as on 30th June 2022.
  • The Business of the bank increased at accelerated pace of 17% yoy to Rs 1945974 crore at end June 2022, supported by loans growth improving to 21% at Rs 895625 crore. Meanwhile, the deposits growth eased to 13% at Rs 1050349 crore at end June 2022.
  • The Bank has posted healthy 21% increase in Net Interest Income (NII) at Rs 13210.02 crore for the quarter ended June 2022. Interest income increased 16% to Rs 23671.54 crore, while interest expenses rose 11% to Rs 10461.52 crore.
  • CASA deposits increased 16% yoy to Rs 492114 crore, while the term deposits moved up 11% to Rs 558235 crore at end June 2022. CASA ratio of the bank improved to 46.85% at end June 2022 from 45.90% at end June 2021, while eased from 48.70% a quarter ago.
  • Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank notched up on sequential basis to 4.01% in Q1FY2023, while improved from 3.89% in the corresponding quarter last year. Domestic NIM moved up to 4.14%, while international NIM was flat at 0.33% in Q1FY2023. The higher CASA ratio and credit-to-deposit ratio has supported NIMs of the bank.
  • Its gross non-performing asset (NPA) ratio decreased to 3.41 per cent as of June 30, 2022, from 5.15 per cent registered in the same quarter last year. The net NPA ratio declined to 0.70% end June 2022 from 0.76% end March 2022 and 1.16% end June 2021.
  • The provisioning coverage ratio on NPAs was 79.6% end June 2022. The total provisions during the quarter were Rs 1144 crore or 11.1% of core operating profit and 0.53% of average advances. This includes contingency provision of Rs 1050 crore made on a prudent basis. The Bank holds contingency provisions of Rs 8500 crore or about 0.9% of total loans end June 2022.

Risk

  • Unidentified Asset Slippages.
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets

Valuation

The bank continues to operate within strategic framework and strengthen franchise, enhance delivery and servicing capabilities and expand technology and digital offerings. The Bank’s cost of deposits continues to be among the lowest in the system. The focus continues on growing loan portfolio in a granular manner. Besides, the bank continues to enhance digital offerings and platforms to onboard new customers in a seamless manner and provide them end-to-end digital journeys and personalised solutions. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1038 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/Bv of 3.70x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.280.54.

P/B Chart

PVR LIMITED
CMP: 1824.30
Target Price: 2206
Upside: 21%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 2211.55/1224.70
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 11142.12
  • EPS (Rs.) 0.00
  • P/E Ratio (times) 0.00
  • P/B Ratio (times) 8.13
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • PVR is an industry leader in India in the film exhibition business dedicated to delivering the best cinema experience to different audiences. It currently operates 858 screens across 174 properties in 76 cities (India and Sri Lanka) and serves over 100 million patrons annually. The Company offers a wide range of cinema services such as child friendly audis, the latest screening technology, superior sound systems, wide range of F&B offerings, diverse content for regional movie goers, an array of formats in the premium screen category such as Director’s Cut, LUXE, Sapphire, IMAX, 4DX, P[XL], Playhouse and PVR Onyx.
  • The company has announced all-stock amalgamation of INOX with itself which will create the largest multiplex chain in the country with a network of more than 1,500 screens. According to the management the merger will add momentum to the business. The company plans to double the screen in next 5-7 years.
  • The Company has launched its first multiplex at Venu Mall, Nizamabad, Telangana. Strengthening its footprints across key markets, the newly opened 4- screen property is integrated with best- in- class theatrical solutions and a host of personalized hospitality services to offer an immersive and seamless cinematic experience.
  • During the quarter ended June 2022, the company has witnessed strong bounce-back in theatrical admissions with 2.5 crs patrons visited its cinemas and strong growth of 23% in Average ticket price (ATP) at Rs 250 and 32% growth in Average F&B spend per patron at Rs 134 as compared to the Pre pandemic period.
  • The company has revived its capex plans in a significant manner and is on track to open a total of 125 new screens during FY’23. In 1QFY2023, it added 10 screens across 2 properties and has opened 14 screens across 3 properties till date. About onethird of the new screen additions in this ¬fiscal year will be in tier 2 and 3 cities. The company plans to enter into 9 new cities during the year.
  • During the quarter, the company recorded highest ever average F&B Spend Per Head (SPH) of Rs 134 being reflecting a growth of 32% over pre-pandemic levels. It recorded the highest monthly average F&B revenue of Rs.100+ crs during the quarter.

Risk

  • Accelerated growth of digital OTT platforms
  • Fall in Discretionary expenditure

Valuation

According to the management of the company the content line up for the year ahead is very promising and hopes this will be a very strong box office year for the Indian exhibitors. The company is expected to benefit from this on the back of robust screen addition plan and improved theatrical admissions strong growth in Average ticket price. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2206 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 8.13x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.271.23.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED (POWERGRID)

The stock closed at Rs 230.45 on 26th August, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 170.20 on 08th September, 2021 and a 52- week high of Rs. 248.35 on 10th May, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 211.80

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart. Apart from this, it has formed an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts and has given the pattern breakout along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same. So further buying may be expected in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 225-228 levels for the upside target of 260-270 levels with SL below 210 levels.

SYNGENE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED (SYNGENE)

The stock closed at Rs 602.00 on 26th August, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 510.05 on 26th May, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 686.30 on 15th September, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 579.28

As we can see on charts that stock has been trading in narrow range and has formed a “continuation Triangle” on weekly chart, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock tried to give the breakout of pattern but couldn’t hold the high due to market volatility but its consolidation from past few weeks indicates that there will be a strong spurt in coming days. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 595-598 levels for the upside target of 660-680 levels with SL below 570 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets started September series on a muted note as Nifty ended the week above 17500 mark while Banknifty ended below 39000 level. From derivative front, call writers seen active at 17600 & 17700 strike while put writers added marginal open interest at 17500 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 17.02% while that for put options closed at 18.59%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 19.57%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.61 lower than the previous week. As per the current data, Nifty is likely to remain under pressure as far trading below 17700 levels. The next upside momentum is likely to carry only above 17700 level, which could take Nifty towards 17950 level. On any downside, 17450-17400 zone would act as a strong support zone for Nifty. As far Bank nifty is concerned 38500 & 38000 levels are likely to support any downside while 39500-39800 zone would cap any sharp upside in prices.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

Note: All equity derivative data as on 25th August, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric (Sep) futures witnessed sideways move last week keeping bias on negative side following adequate stocks in the market. However, prices have started recovering after finding support near 7000 level on improved festive buying; it may move up to 7770 as it will act as near term resistance. Sowing activities have almost completed across India and crop condition has improved than earlier. Weather condition is likely to be conducive to the crop progress in the wake of IMD forecast of drier weather condition in Maharashtra and much required rainfall in Telangana in coming week. About 14,000 Ha was sown under Turmeric in Andhra Pradesh as on 24th Aug’22 compared to 12,000 Ha of last year for corresponding period.

Jeera (Sep) futures extended its gains last week on prevailing supply concerns in the market. Shrinking arrivals in domestic market and disruption in global supply due to Ukraine crisis helped upward move in jeera prices. Jeera production is estimated to drop by 9% Y-o-Y to 7.25 lakh tons in year 2021-22 that kept stocks lower across India. Going forward, some kind of profit booking is likely to be seen as stockists may release stocks due to lowering demand at higher levels. Export has down by 42% Y-o-Y to 84 thousand tons due to limited availability wherein imports has also slowed down due to higher global prices. Global supply will improve with commencement of harvesting activities in Turkey wherein most of the crop has already touched the market in Syria. Indian jeera prices may witness some correction with expansion of global supply. However, losses in Jeera will be limited as supply shortage concerns will remain intact unless new crop comes in market in Feb’23- Mar’23. Jeera prices may see resistance of 26400 wherein support can be seen near 25150 levels.

Coriander (Sep) futures traded on weaker note during the week mainly due to surging selling pressure. Subdued buying by local traders and millers on prevailing levels sparked profit booking at futures platform. Coriander prices jumped to record level of 13298 in year 2022 due to lower production and now consolidating in 10700 – 12500 zone. Stockists are offloading their stocks due to fear of further fall in prices as domestic demand has been limited at this level. Expectation of rise in imports with commencement of trade from Black sea will put pressure on prices in near term. However, losses will be limited in coriander in wake of lower annual production.

BULLIONS

Bullion prices were buoyed by pause in rally in dollar index, while investors awaited direction on rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors across financial markets are bracing for the U.S. central bank to reiterate its commitment to tame inflation or signal a "pivot" to subdued interest rate hikes. The dollar index hovered near one-month highs, while benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields firmed. The U.S. economy contracted at a more moderate pace than initially thought in the second quarter, as consumer spending blunted some of the drag from a sharp slowdown in inventory accumulation, dispelling fears that a recession was underway; increased appeal for safe haven buying in gold. Players were reluctant to take any aggressive positions in gold ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium as it will give indication about how aggressively the U.S. central bank will continue tightening monetary policy, and for indications on a potential change of strategy in case of an economic slowdown. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped to a nine-month high in July, data showed on Thursday, with banks snapping up bullion as Beijing works to revive an economy hit by a resurgence of COVID cases. US equities were recording minimal gains after a fall, characterized by thin market volatility. Ahead in the week, Gold on COMEX may trade in the range of 1720-1780, whereas on MCX prices may continue to trade higher with the support of 50900 and could possibly face resistance near 52400 levels. Silver has taken strong support near 54500 and it is likely to march towards 57000; it is mirroring the trend of gold.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices jumped more than 10% from the low of 6921 after Saudi Arabia floated the idea of OPEC+ output cuts to support prices in the case of returning Iranian crude and with the prospect of a drop in U.S. inventories. The Saudi energy minister said OPEC+ had the means to deal with challenges including cutting production. Brent settled at its highest price since Aug. 2 and WTI logged its strongest settlement since Aug. 11. The prospect of resuming Iranian crude supply and recession fears, along with consecutive weekly builds at the U.S. crude oil storage hub, easing gasoline demand, and the upcoming refinery maintenance season has pushed prices lower in recent weeks and set the tone for OPEC+. Underlining tight supply, the latest U.S. inventories weekly reports are expected to show crude stocks declining. Demand hopes have gained momentum as data for Asia Pacific, European and North American showed that the traffic levels in all the regions recorded strong growth in the week ended 24 August. Crude oil rally is also supported by choppiness in the US dollar and gains in equity market as risk sentiment improved on China’s continuing efforts to support the economy and amid progress in US-China talks. Crude is also supported by persisting rise in power prices in Europe which may increase fuel switching. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade on higher side where it may take support near 7250 levels and possibly face resistance near 7900 levels. Natural gas prices witnessed continued buying from the past 3 weeks amidst diminishing open interest and volume and suggest that extra upside appears unlikely for the time being. Ahead in the week prices may take pause in the rally and trade in the range of 700-800 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade sideways with a positive bias on rising hopes of fresh stimulus measures in top metals consumer China that would boost demand, while better-than-expected economic data from Europe may also support the market. China will add 19 new policies on top of the existing steps unveiled in May, including raising the quota on policy financing tools by 300 billion yuan ($43.69 billion), to support its COVID-hit economy. The German economy grew in the second quarter, propped up by household and government spending and beating analyst expectations that saw it a downturn, data showed. However, the U.S. economy contracted at a more moderate pace than initially thought in the second quarter, dispelling fears that a recession was underway. Copper may trade in the range 655-710 levels. Peru, the world's No. 2 copper producer, expects the price of the metal to fall to $3.40 per pound in 2023 from an average of $3.90 this year, according to forecasts from the economy ministry released. China's energy shortages highlight the need for more investment in the power grid, leading to a pick-up in demand for copper and aluminium, ANZ said in a note. Aluminum may trade in the range of 205-222 with a bullish bias. Smelter closures in many countries reduced supply, but analysts said prices are unlikely to rise sharply because slowing economic growth would also curtail demand. Around 1 million tonnes of aluminium capacity has been taken offline in Europe, Citi said. Zinc may trade in the range of 310-332 levels. Lead can move in the range of 174-186 levels. Steel long is likely to trade in the range of 49500- 50600 levels with bearish bias on NCDEX.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton (Oct) prices remained under pressure on improved crop condition in central part of India especially in Gujarat. After touching the high of 43690 last week, prices has dropped more than by 10% in last once week due to demand concerns. Millers are preferring hand to mouth buying due to higher prices. In the wake of better production outlook for upcoming season supported by improved crop condition is likely to keep prices down in near term. However, prevailing concerns over crop damage in Punjab and Haryana due to pest attack along with reports of crop losses due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra will keep prices volatile and restrict the losses. Moving forward, it is expected to see further fall up to 37500-37000.

NCDEX cotton seed oil cake Sep futures traded mixed to higher during the week mainly due to speculative buying. Fear of yield losses in cotton due to pest attack in Punjab and Haryana supported upward move in prices as these two states are the major consuming center of cotton seed oil cake. Limited availability of fair quality of cotton seed oil cake in the market also helped prices to move up. Gains in prices are likely to be limited due to better crop outlook of cotton. Prices are likely to honor resistance of INR 2830 wherein 2550 will act as near term support.

Mentha oil (Sep) futures slipped further on surging selling pressure. Heavy stocks and bleak limited industrial demand will keep the prices down in coming weeks. Prices are likely to drop further and may find support near 930-950.

Guar seed futures (Sept) extended its downtrend on better production outlook posted weekly losses of 3%. Prices are expected to fall further due to subdued buying amid reports of rise in area under guar seed. Total area under Guar has been reported at 30.7 lakh Ha as on 24th Aug’22 compared to 20.4 lakh Ha of previous year higher by 50 % Y-o-Y. Guar seed prices are likely to be supported at 4450 level.

Castor Seed (Sept) traded down tracking cues from the rising area under castor for year 2022-23. Prices are likely to trade sideways to higher on supply shortage in domestic market. Castor area in Gujarat has increased by 23% Y-o- Y reached up to 4.66 lakh Ha as on 22 Aug’22. Prices are facing strong resistance near 7600 wherein 7260 will be the near term support. Limited export demand of oil and increased area under castor in Gujarat and Rajasthan will cap the excessive gains.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ALUMINIUM MCX
Contract: SEPT
M*.High: 220.55
M*.Low: 207.95

It closed at Rs. 212.85 on 25th Aug 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 212.60. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.280. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 213 for a target of Rs. 223 with the stop loss of 208.

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: SEPT
M*.High: 7800.00
M*.Low: 6838.00

It closed at Rs. 7470.00 on 25th Aug 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 7360.27. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.985. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 7360 for a target of Rs. 7800 with the stop loss of 7140.

STEELLONG NCDEX
Contract: SEPT
M*.High: 53630.00
M*.Low: 49850.00

It closed at Rs. 50190.00 on 25th Aug 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 51943.40. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.841. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 50500 for a target of Rs. 49500 with the stop loss of 51000.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • US gross domestic income rises at 1.4% rate in Q2.
  • The global refined copper market showed a 66,000 tones deficit in June, compared with a 30,000 tones deficit in May, according to International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
  • India may target goods and services exports of about $750 billion for FY23, up 11% from a record $676 billion in the last fiscal year.
  • Aluminum producer Speira GmbH is considering cutting production at its German smelter to 50% of total capacity in response to surging energy costs, Bloomberg News reported.
  • India slashed its crude imports from the US by around one million metric tonnes (MT) in the June quarter of FY23. At the same time, share of Russian oil in India’s crude basket rose from 2.2% in FY22 to 12.9% in the first quarter of FY23.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) on Thursday approved a proposal to do away with exemptions for wheat or meslin flour from export restrictions.
  • The Centre may release about Rs 30,000 crore soon as GST (goods and services tax) compensation for June 2022, the last month of the five-year guaranteed compensation pledged by the Union government.
  • The sugar exports in India are most likely to plunge by 28.57% at around 8 million tonne in the 2022-23 seasons on higher diversion for ethanol.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Commodities saw marginal gains for nonstop third week; CRB hit the high of almost 320. Dollar index couldn’t near the resistance of 109.27; though closed the week on positive note. Energy complex traded bullish. Oil prices rose further as traders awaited more details on the potential lifting of U.S. sanctions against Iran, while a drop in crude inventories also helped support sentiment. Threats of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia, in response to the deal, also drove prices higher, helping them recover from six-month lows. US crude inventories shrank 3.3 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19, more than expectations for a drop of 0.9 million barrels. The drop was largely driven by record-high U.S. crude exports, indicating that overseas demand for crude remained robust. US natural gas prices rose above $10 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2008, extending a scorching rally driven by persistent concern that global stockpiles of the heating and power-plant fuel aren’t enough to meet winter demand. European gas supplies are a concern after an unusually hot summer, leaving the region more reliant on cargoes from exporters including the US to shrink the shortfall. MCX gas made a high of 801. Israel's natural gas production jumped in the first half of 2022 amid plans to boost exports to Europe as it faces a worsening energy crisis. Production hit 10.85 billion cubic meters in the year through June, up 22%. Bullion prices appreciated marginally. Gold prices held recent gains as the dollar retreated slightly on weak economic data, with focus now turning to commentary from the Federal Reserve on the path of interest rates. Silver followed the footsteps of gold. While prices of the red metal gained some respite from a dip in the dollar. A severe drought and power shortage in the Sichuan province has spurred the closing of several major factories, impeding broader efforts by the Chinese government to support economic growth after a COVIDdriven slowdown this year. Aluminum producer Speira GmbH is considering cutting production at its German smelter to 50% of total capacity in response to surging energy costs, Bloomberg News reported.

Guar counter was in pressure due to subdued buying amid reports of rise in area under guar seed. Total area under Guar has been reported at 30.6 lakh Ha as on 18th Aug’22 compared to 20.1 lakh Ha of previous year higher by 52% Y-o-Y. Cotton (Oct) prices traded down on improved crop condition in central part of India especially in Gujarat. Subdued demand from spinning mills and better production outlook for upcoming season weighed on the market sentiments. Prevailing concerns over supply shortage and active festive demand helped jeera prices to remain higher.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Steel … “World's need for sustainable growth”

Steel industry is often considered as an economic indicator of any country’s development because of its critical role in infrastructural and overall economic development. In India, around 60% of the Steel production is for Long Products used mainly for the Construction activities. Balance 40% of the Steel produced is for flat products, used for the electrical, automobile & engineering purpose. Steel application across segments will see a quantum jump, and moreover newer areas of usage such as the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and drone technology will provide ample opportunities to the steel players.

Indian scenario

  • As per steel ministry, India, the world’s second largest steelmaker, produced 120 million tonne (MT) of crude steel during financial year ended March 31, 2022, driven by rising demand.
  • India's per capita consumption of steel has increased from 57.8 kg in 2013-14 to 78 kg at present as compare to the global average of 225 kg. The policy also seeks to increase the domestic per capita steel consumption to the level of 160 kg by 2030.
  • Steel consumption is predicted to rise by 17% to 110 thousand tonnes in FY22, owing to increased construction activity.
  • The government intends to achieve 300 million tonne (MT) of steel production target by 2030.
  • As per Steel minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, the industry is targeting to reduce carbon emission by 30-40% in the next eight years and pursue alternative forms of steel-making using steel scrap as the raw material.

World scenario

  • Global crude steel output rose 3.7% in 2021 to 1 950.5 million tons, data from the World Steel Association showed. Global production of crude steel exceeded 1 880.4 million tons in 2020.
  • World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association dropped by 6.5% ( year on year) to 149.3 million tonne, mainly due to drop in Chinese and Indian steel output.
  • China, the World’s dominant steel producer, produced 81.4 Mt in July 2022, down 6.4% on July 2021. India, the second largest steel producer, produced 10.1 Mt, up 3.2%. Japan, the 3rd largest producer, produced 7.3 Mt, down 8.5%.
  • The global steel market reached a value of US$ 874.6 Billion in 2021 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.13 % during the forecast period 2021-2027.

Outlook

Currently the prices of steel are trading with bearish bias due to poor demand in domestic and export markets. Exports of steel have been badly hit since the imposition of a 15 per cent duty in May. For the April to June quarter, exports declined 39 per cent, year-on-year, as per details available with the Steel Ministry. Anticipating further fall, dealers reduced purchase orders. Restocking too has not happened at dealer levels.

However, with the economic recovery, the global demand for steel is slated to increase this year and the next and the trend is expected to continue the next financial year as well. Robust infrastructure development in China alongside the transition to low-carbon energy sources has led several analysts to maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity. Steel production in India will be driven by an increase in allocation of capex by 36% y-o-y at Rs. 7.5 lakh crore in Union Budget 2022-23. The budget has infrastructure push towards seven engines (roads, railways, airports, ports, mass transport, waterways and logistic infra). Approval of Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for specialty steel, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) scheme and Jal Jeevan Mission will also support domestic steel consumption in India.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian Rupee continued to trade in an edge to fall below 80.00. The bid for dollar remained strong from the oil marketing companies to hedge their dollar risk while exporters are jumping around to lock the lower rates in rupee through forwards and futures. Indeed FIIs flows are improving in India as they have poured more than $5bn so far in this month. Technical picture for the USDINR looks tired now as RBI possible defend around 80.00 and strong bid for dollar from importers side kept the pairs in pretty narrow range in last few days. Apparently Jackson-Hole Symposium which started from Thursday this week and ends on Friday may add FX volatility to zoom-in until any stable comments come from the Central Banking community. On the majors, Euro consistently traded below parity with the dollar as economic activity in the Euro zone faces strong headwinds. Last week, the German ZEW survey fell to -55.3 representing the lowest since October 2008. Drought conditions are severely limiting commerce transport on Europe’s major rivers and energy prices continue to increase on demand for winter storage. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 0.50% at the September 8 meeting but overall interest rate levels will still lag the Fed. We will remain bearish in euro and pound as well.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (SEP)contract closed at 80.1400 on 25-AUG-22. The contract made its high of 80.2950 on 25-AUG-22 and a low of 79.9450 on 24-AUG-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 79.7162.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.74.One can buy at 79.75 for the target of 80.75 with the stop loss of 79.25.

GBP/INR (AUG)contract closed at 94.9650 on 25-AUG-22. The contract made its high of 95.9500 on 22-AUG-22 and a low of 94.1375 on 23-AUG-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 95.4813.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.13. One can sell at 95.00 for a target of 94.00 with the stop loss of 95.50.

News Flows of last week

26th AUG US and China near deal over audit inspections
25th AUG Biden’s student debt relief plan triggers inflation warnings
25th AUG Markets bet UK interest rates will hit 4% by May
24th AUG UK imports from Russia hit record low as Ukraine sanctions bite
23th AUG US New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.511M below forecasts
23th AUG UK economic activity hit as weak demand and labour shortages bite
23th AUG Euro zone recession fears grow as business activity declines again
23th AUG UK inflation projected to hit 18.6% as gas prices surge
22th AUG UK economy shrank more than previously estimated in 2020, says ONS

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (SEP) contract closed at 80.2550 on 25-AUG-22. The contract made its high of 81.4500 on 22-AUG-22 and a low of 79.6550 on 23-AUG-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 80.7000.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.41. One can sell at 80.50 for a target of 79.50 with the stop loss of 81.00.

JPY/INR (SEP) contract closed at 58.9300 on 25-AUG-22. The contract made its high of 58.9725 on 25- AUG-22 and a low of 58.4400 on 23-AUG-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.8425.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.64. One can buy at 58.50 for a target of 59.50 with the stop loss of 58.00.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

DreamFolks Services IPO receives 6 times subscription on Day 2 of offer

The Initial Public Offer (IPO) of airport service aggregator DreamFolks Services received 6.09 times subscription on the second day of the offer. The IPO received bids for 5,77,86,948 shares against 94,83,302 shares on offer, according to data available with the NSE. The quota for Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) was subscribed 19.10 times, the category meant for non-institutional investors 8.40 times and Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 60 per cent. The IPO of DreamFolks Services got fully subscribed within hours of opening and ended the day with 1.96 times subscription.The initial public offer is entirely an Offer-For- Sale (OFS) of 1,72,42,368 equity shares. Price range for the offer is at Rs 308-326 a share.

Vikram Solar gets Sebi nod to mop-up funds via IPO

Vikram Solar has received capital markets regulator Sebi's go ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO consists of a fresh issue of up to Rs 1,500 crore and an Offer-for-Sale (OFS) of up to 50 lakh equity shares by the selling shareholders. Vikram Solar is a leading domestic module manufacturer. It produces solar photo-voltaic (PV) modules and is an integrated solar energy solutions provider offering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services, and operations and maintenance (O&M) services. Going by the draft papers, proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilised for setting up an integrated solar cell and solar module manufacturing facility with an annual production capacity of 2,000 MW. The company has a global footprint through a sales office in the US and a procurement office in China and has supplied solar PV modules to customers in 32 countries, as of December 31, 2021. In India, the company's customers include NTPC, Rays Power Infra, Amp Energy India, Azure Power India, West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd, Solar Energy Corporation of India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Keventer Agro. The company's international customers include Amp Solar Development Inc, Safari Energy LLC, Standard Solar Inc and Southern Current. In India, the company's customers include NTPC, Rays Power Infra, Amp Energy India, Azure Power India, West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd, Solar Energy Corporation of India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Keventer Agro.

Balaji Speciality Chemicals files papers with Sebi to raise funds via IPO

Balaji Speciality Chemicals has filed preliminary with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 250 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 2,60,00,000 equity shares by promoters and promoter group entities, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Incorporated in 2010, Solapur-based Balaji Speciality Chemicals manufactures niche chemicals, which are used in various end-use industries, such as speciality chemicals, agrochemicals and pharmaceuticals. Its key customers include Nanjing Union Chemical Company Limited, Korea India Limited, UPL Limited, Dr Reddy's Laboratories Limited and Aarti Drugs Limited. From FY20 to FY22, its customer base grew from 45 to 182 customers.

Vikram Solar gets Sebi nod to mop-up funds via IPO

Vikram Solar has received capital markets regulator Sebi's go ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO consists of a fresh issue of up to Rs 1,500 crore and an Offer-for-Sale (OFS) of up to 50 lakh equity shares by the selling shareholders. Vikram Solar, which filed preliminary IPO papers with the markets regulator in March, obtained its observation letter on August 10, an update with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) showed. Vikram Solar is a leading domestic module manufacturer. It produces solar photo-voltaic (PV) modules and is an integrated solar energy solutions provider offering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services, and operations and maintenance (O&M) services. Going by the draft papers, proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilised for setting up an integrated solar cell and solar module manufacturing facility with an annual production capacity of 2,000 MW. The company has a global footprint through a sales office in the US and a procurement office in China and has supplied solar PV modules to customers in 32 countries, as of December 31, 2021.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Investors pull out Rs 70,000 cr from debt mutual funds in June qtr

Investors continued to withdraw from mutual funds focused on investing in fixed-income securities for third consecutive quarter and pulled out over Rs. 70,000 crore in April-June due to high inflation and an increasing rate cycle. The latest outflow has pulled down the asset managed by fund managers for debt fixedincome funds by 5% to Rs. 12.35 lakh crore at June-end from close to Rs. 13 lakh crore at the end of March, data available with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. After hitting a peak of Rs. 14.16 lakh crore in the first quarter of fiscal 2022, assets under management for the fixed-income category has been on a steady decline and since then the asset base has fallen by 13%.According to the data, net outflow from open ended fixed- income mutual funds or debt mutual funds was at Rs. 70,213 crore in the quarter under review.

Edelweiss Asset Management Launches ‘Gold and Silver ETF Fund of Fund’

Edelweiss Asset Management Limited has launched the Edelweiss Gold and Silver ETF Fund of Fund. The fund will be open for subscription till September 7. This is the first fund in the industry to have allocation to both gold and silver. The Fund will be managed by Bhavesh Jain and Bharat Lahoti. The fund house said in the press release that gold and silver have proven to be popular investment tools in current times as they offer a hedge against inflation. These precious metals also have a low correlation with equities and therefore offer better diversification. Compared to physical gold and silver, the mutual fund structure offers greater convenience, affordability, and liquidity.

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund launches PSU Equity Fund

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched ICICI Prudential PSU Equity Fund, an open-ended equity scheme with an objective to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments of PSU companies. The scheme may invest in sectors/stocks that form a part of S&P BSE PSU Index. The scheme may also invest in opportunities across market cap - that is. large, mid or small cap. The NFO opens on August 23 and closes on September 06. “PSU companies form an important constituent of Capital Markets and are present across different sectors presenting wide investment opportunities. Also, PSUs appear to be attractively placed on valuation basis and offer better margin of safety. In a volatile environment, companies providing high dividend yield tend to have higher demand resulting in capital appreciation,” Chintan Haria, Head - Product Development and Strategy, ICICI Prudential AMC. According to the fund house, many factors make the PSU space attractive: One, government ownership in PSU companies is substantial compared to nonpromoters (FPIs, DIIs & Retail). As these companies are highly under owned by non-promoters, the PSU space provides better Margin of Safety. Two, valuations in the PSU space have been attractive for a while now again indicating that companies have better Margin of Safety. Three, PSUs tend to offer better dividend yield than broader markets. Average dividend yield of S&P BSE PSU Index (last 17 years) is 2.6 whereas that of S&P BSE Sensex is 1.3. In a volatile environment, companies providing high dividend yield tend to have higher demand resulting in capital appreciation.

WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund launches Mid Cap Fund, Tax Saver Fund

WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund has launched two schemes - WhiteOak Capital Mid Cap Fund and WhiteOak Capital Tax Saver Fund. While the New Fund Offer of the mid cap fund closes on August 30, the tax saver fund NFO will be open for subscription till September 23. These are open-ended equity schemes. Both regular and direct plans will be available for investors in both the funds. The WhiteOak Capital Mid Cap Fund will allow lumpsum investments only during the NFO period. The scheme will take investments only via SIP after the NFO period. According to a press release, WhiteOak Capital Mid Cap Fund will invest nearly 65% of the portfolio in Mid-cap stocks. The remaining allocation will be towards both large caps (for liquidity purposes) and small caps (to capture some compelling opportunities). The fund is benchmarked against S&P BSE Midcap 150 TRI. The fund house said that the mid cap segment can be a good investment option for investors seeking to invest for the long term via the SIP route. With additional options which include WhiteOak Capital Goal SIP, WhiteOak Capital Flexi SIP, and WhiteOak Capital Top Up SIP , investors have the flexibility to choose from a wide range of SIP variants.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 25/08/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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