Global markets were turbulent last week, fueled by rising US bond yields reaching 4.16%. A Fed officials’ caution on rate cuts dashed hopes for an early easing, dampening sentiment. Despite hinting at cuts later in 2024, the Fed remains wary of inflation. In its December policy, the US central bank, keeping the key interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5 per cent, hinted at rate cuts in 2024. Cautious optimism prevailed despite the ECB's focus on inflation and continued distance from rate cuts. Strong earnings and economic outlook optimism propelled EU markets despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. Germany’s economy shrank last year for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, increasing the risk of an economic contraction in the wider euro area. Strong earnings and a weaker yen boosted Japanese stocks, but global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions kept a lid on further gains. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its loose policy, but Governor Ueda's hints about future rate hikes will be closely watched. On the data front, Japan's headline inflation cooled to 2.6% from 2.8% in November. The core inflation rate also fell to 2.3% from November’s 2.5%. Chinese markets were cautious, with concerns about government policy and tech sector regulations weighing on sentiment, alongside rising global interest rates and geopolitical tensions. On the economy front, China's GDP growth of 5.2% last year met the government's target, but masked deeper worries about mounting market concerns, declining investor confidence, and a prolonged slump in the property market.
Back at home, Indian stock market indices--Sensex and Nifty—witnessed see-saw movement as risk-off sentiment prevailed and banking majors suffered the worst decline. Actually, large cap banking giant HDFC Bank's disappointing Q3 performance abetted the profit booking. A slump in global markets due to rate cuts-related optimism waning, latest GDP data from China and geo-political tensions spooked the sentiments of the investors. Despite forecasts of robust Indian economic growth in 2023-24 driven by rising private investment, geopolitical tensions and a fragile global outlook remain concerns. Going forward, volatility is expected to persist in domestic markets until the February interim budget.
On the commodity market front, the CRB closed in negative territory as the dollar index rebounded from its low, driven by hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. Gold and silver experienced a significant decline, while crude oil took a hit due to weaker economic data from China and resurgence in the dollar index. However, a supportive factor for oil prices came from the OPEC demand outlook report. Base metals also faced downward pressure, influenced by both the Fed's hawkish stance and the disappointing Chinese economic data. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 60500-63000 levels and 70000-74500 levels respectively. Crude oil prices have resistance near 6250 levels. Several crucial events are on the horizon, such as the upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of Canada (BoC), as well as key economic indicators like Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Confidence, and Business Climate in Germany. These data points have the potential to significantly influence commodity prices. Additionally, market participants are closely watching for the ECB Interest Rate Decision and subsequent press conference. In US, attention is focused on Durable Goods Orders, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, PCE Price Index, and GDP Growth rate, all of which are pivotal factors impacting the commodities market.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
According to the management of the company, during Q2FY24, it has reported a strong performance, during the challenging times,reflected by 16% gains in absolute EBITDA compared to the previous quarter driven by its concerted efforts of enhancing its market position, optimizing product mix and operational excellence. The company is maintaining the growth momentum in the upcoming quarters supported by better demand recovery across various end use industries. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.840 in 8 to 10 months time frame on an expected P/Bv of 5.25x and FY25 (E) BVPS of Rs.159.99.
The company has strong order book which indicates future growth visibility. Recently, it has executed asset monetization which would strengthen the balance sheet of the company help drive future growth of the business. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 469 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on a current P/BVx of 2.27x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.206.74.
The stock closed at Rs.220.35 on 19th January, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.135.15 on 27th January, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.229.95 on 05th January, 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 184.
The stock has been consistently maintaining its bearish trend since 2021 and can be seen trading with series of lower bottom pattern formation on weekly charts. From last almost one year, the stock has been consolidating in broader range of 135-200 and had been sustaining below its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts. Last week, the stock has shown some recovery from its lows as prices seen giving a renewed momentum above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts once again with a fresh breakout above its long term range. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 215-220 levels for the upside target of 265-270 levels with SL below 185 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.1389.90 on 19th January, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.981.05 on 28th April, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1401.50 on 15th January 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1192.
The Stock has been consolidating in a broader range of 950- 1300 levels from past 18 months with prices managed to hold and took support multiple times at its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts, as the buying has emerged there, to keep the stock in four figure marks. Last week, the stock has given a fresh breakout above its key resistance level of 1300 after a series of prolong consolidation phase. We have also observed a delivery buying into the stock after a fresh breakout which suggests a long build into a stock. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1385-1390 levels for the upside target of 1685-1690 levels with SL below 1220 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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The broader indices experienced a decline from their record highs, with Nifty witnessing a loss of over 1.2%, while more 4.2% drop seen in Banknifty on a weekly basis. During the past week, the IT and oil & gas sectors emerged as major gainers, while a correction was observed in private bank shares following result announcements from HDFC bank which disappointed the investors most. Kotak Bank and Indusind Bank also underwent corrections and ended the week in red. Additionally, there was some profit booking in the media and metal sectors as well. In the Nifty options segment, the highest call open interest is held at 22000 strike followed by 21800 strike whereas on the put side, the highest open interest is at the 21,500 and 21,000 strike. For Banknifty, the highest call open interest is at the 46,000 strike, while the highest put open interest is at the 45,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 13.14%, while put options concluded at 14.09%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market olatility, concluded the week at 14.07%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 0.94 for the week. The immediate support for the Nifty lies in range of 21400-21500 levels while on higher side 21900-22000 levels would act as animmediate hurdle for the markets. It is expected that market will trade in the given range with some intraday volatility. Traders are advised to focus on sector & stock specific moves.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices witnessed sharp recovery tracking delay in fresh arrivals in Nizamabad market. Harvesting activities have been delayed in Telangana that has impacted the pace of arrivals at major trading canters. The overall production of turmeric is expected to be lower in the current year (2024-25) as compared to the previous year (2023-24). This is attributed to a decrease in acreages under turmeric cultivation, which is estimated to result in an 8%-10% year-on-year fall in production. Fresh arrivals are expected to commence by end of the Jan and likely to pick up in Feb onwards. Export enquiries are reportedly bleak, possibly indicating challenges in the international market or competition with other producing countries that may cap the excessive gains. India exported about 10.13 thousand tonnes of turmeric in Oct’23 as compared to 11.17 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Turmeric is expected to trade in range of 13600-15500 in coming weeks.
Jeera futures witnessed huge volatility as prices tried to recover from the recent lows. Emerging export demand and firmness in spot prices helped futures prices to trade on positive note. Firmness in futures are likely to remain continue in coming days due to firm spot demand. Spot prices ruled at premium of about 4100 over March delivery contract that will lead to fresh long accumulation in futures prices. Limited availability of quality crop in the market is still major challenge to the market and fresh buying is likely to be seen ahead of festive demand in Mar-Apr. Gains are likely to be limited in the wake of bumper production ahead. The expected increase in production for the year 2024-25 is noted to be around 30% year-on-year, with a substantial rise in cultivation area. Jeera prices have become competitive at the prevailing rates, contributing to a rise in export pace. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 23200-33400.
Dhaniya prices traded higher last week with improved buying in physical market. Weaker production outlook in upcoming season and robust export demand helped prices to trade on positive bias. India exported 3.9 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in October 2023, a significant increase from the 2.2 thousand tonnes exported in the same month the previous year. Overall exports during April-October 2023 were reported at 70.12 thousand tonnes, reflecting a substantial YoY increase of 271%. Crop condition has satisfactory due to favourable weather condition that will cap the excessive gains in the prices. New crop is likely to touch the market in March and ending stocks have been higher. Dhaniya prices are expected to trade in the range of 7300-8400.
Gold prices experienced their most challenging week in six, as the U.S. dollar and bond yields strengthened following a stance from U.S. central bankers that pushed back against early expectations of interest rate cuts. Bullion faced downward pressure as traders recalibrated their rate-cut expectations in response to robust economic data and the hawkish tone adopted by Federal Reserve speakers. This adjustment offset the safe-haven appeal typically associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Dollar Index surged nearly 1% for the week, while the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury reached a fresh five-week high at 4.1710%.Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic's remarks added nuance to the scenario, expressing openness to earlier rate cuts depending on the pace of inflation decline, albeit maintaining a baseline projection for cuts in the third quarter. Market sentiment, as reflected in LSEG's Interest Rate Probability app (IRPR), scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts to 139 basis points, down from 150 bps a week earlier. The likelihood of a March cut also decreased to 55% from approximately 71% the previous week, as per IRPR. Comex, Gold prices encountered resistance around $2060 and found support near $1990. A decisive move in either direction is poised to set the tone for the next trend. Meanwhile, Silver is expected to trade within a broader range of $21.90 to $23.40. Looking ahead, on MCX, Gold prices may continue on a bearish trajectory, finding support near 61000 and encountering resistance near 62500. Silver is anticipated to mirror gold's movements,trading within the range of 68700-73000.
Crude oil concluded the week on a positive note, buoyed by escalating tensions in the Middle East and an optimistic global oil demand outlook. Ongoing geopolitical risks in the region, marked by additional U.S. strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, fueled concerns and supported oil prices. In the U.S., Energy Information Administration (EIA) data revealed a substantial 2.5 million barrel decline in crude inventories for the week, surpassing the anticipated 313,000 barrel draw. On the demand front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2024 oil demand growth projection upward to 1.24 million barrels per day, citing improved economic growth and lower crude prices in Q4. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its forecast of a 2.25 million bpd demand growth in 2024, with a robust expectation of 1.85 million bpd growth in 2025. The Middle East witnessed heightened tensions as Pakistan launched retaliatory strikes on separatist militants inside Iran. As the region's volatility spreads, traders refrained from taking short positions, exhibiting caution in building long positions amidst China's sluggish economic recovery. Concerns also lingered regarding a potential resurgence of U.S.-China conflict as the U.S. election approaches, posing a negative impact on energy demand. Looking ahead, crude oil prices may experience heightened volatility, finding support near 5900 and encountering resistance around 6350. In contrast, U.S. natural gas prices dipped to a two-week low due to a smaller-than-expected storage draw, with gas in storage remaining 11.2% above the seasonal norm. Anticipated reduced demand and increased output, driven by warmer late-January weather, are likely to keep natural gas prices trading in the range of 200 to 250 in the upcoming week. Traders should closely monitor these factors for potential market shifts.
Base metals may trade sideways with bearish bias on uncertainty over interest rate cuts and patchy economic recovery in top metals consumer China. Data showed that China missed forecasts for economic growth while sales in the debt-heavy property sector continued to decline. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank project China's GDP growth to be around 4.5% in 2024, below its previous high levels. Investment in real estate declined by 9.4% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction. However the counter may get some support as China's consideration of a $139 billion stimulus package reflects its commitment to supporting economic growth, but it raises questions about the sustainability of its debt-based approach. Copper may trade in the range of 705-725 levels. Chilean copper production will grow at a slower rate this decade, compared with last year's estimates, due to the delay of projects under construction, according to state agency Cochilco. Zinc can trade in range of 212-228 levels. The global zinc market deficit increased to 71,600 metric tons in November 2023 from a deficit of 62,500 tons in October, data from the ILZSG showed. Lead can move in the range of 178-185 levels. China's secondary or recycled lead production, accounting for half of total output, shrank to 342,000 tons in December, down 23% from the previous month, according to domestic pricing agency SMM. Aluminium can trade in the range of 192-208 levels. China's primary aluminium output climbed to a record high of 41.59 million metric tons in 2023 but the growth rate slowed amid weather-related production curbs at smelters in the country's southwest. Steel long (Feb) is likely to trade in the range of 43600-45000 levels with positive bias.
Cotton prices remained under pressure for most part of the week. Sluggish industrial demand and limited export enquires of Indian cotton weighed on market sentiments.Arrivals remained in full swing and likely to be higher by about 10%- 13% Y-o-Y by end of Jan’24. Cumulative arrivals of cotton have reached at 119.4 lakh bales as on 18th Jan againstthe 115.7 bales of last year. Muted demand of yarn and shrinking profit margin for spinning mills impacted overall demand of cotton adversely. Downfall in cotton is likely to be limited due to weaker production estimates for year 2023-24. Cotton production is likely to drop by 2% Y-o-Y in marketing year 2023-24 due to lower acreages under cotton. Cotton acreages shrunk to 123.8 lakh Ha in year 2023-24 compared to 129.27 lakh Ha of previous year due to adverse weather condition during sowing progress. Cotton production is estimated to be lowest in last 15 years in year 2023-24 that will reflect as supply tightness. Cotton Corporation of India procured about 20.29 lakh bales of cotton as on 11th Jan 2024 and is likely to remain continue that will cap the downfall in prices. Cotton MCX prices are likely to trade in the range of 54200-56500. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1500-1600 level. Cocud prices are expected to trade sideways to down due to increased supplies the market. Cocud prices are likely to trade in the range of 2570-2850 levels.
Guar seed futures traded sideways to down due to muted industrial buying. Higher stocks in the market and increased arrivals weighed on market sentiments. Weaknesses in guar prices are likely to be limited in anticipation of fall in arrivals in coming months. Prices seasonality of guar seed suggest that prices increase during Jan-Mar quarter due to reduced supplies in the market. Demand of guar meal is likely to increase that will keep the crushing demand higher and impact of the same is likely to be seen on guar seed prices. Export demand for guar meal increased in recent months that will also help prices to trade on positive bias. India has exported about 16.9 thousand tonnes of guar meal in Oct’23 as compared to 9 thousand tonnes of previous year, higher by 87% Y-o-Y. The overall production of guar seed has reportedly decreased by 11%-13% Year-on-Year in the year 2023-24. This reduction in production has resulted in tighter inventory levels for millers. However, muted export enquire of guar gum may cap the excessive gains. Guar seed prices are expected to find support around 5200, with resistance seen at 5800. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to find support around 10000, with resistance observed at 11400.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade on positive bias with shrinking supplies in the market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil and menthol is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 7.3 thousand tonnes of menthol during Apr23-Oct’23 as compared to 8.6 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 15% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near 900 and resistance can be seen at 960 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with reduced supplies in the market. Arrivals have dropped as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. However, reports of fall in export of castor meal will cap the gains. India exported about 42.3 thousand tonnes of castor meal in Dec’23 against the 42.72 thousand tonnes of previous year due to limited demand in China and South East Asian countries. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5400-6000 levels.
It closed at Rs.723.75 on 18th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.726.78. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.740. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.705 for a target of Rs.730 with the stop loss of 695.
It closed at Rs.6195.00 on 18th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.6088.39. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.29. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.6150 for a target of Rs.6400 with the stop loss of 6000.
It closed at Rs.14586.00 on 18th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.13832.78 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 70.10. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.14200 for a target of Rs.15200 with the stop loss of 13800.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The CRB closed in negative territory as the dollar index rebounded from its low, driven by hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. Gold and silver experienced a significant decline, while crude oil took a hit due to weaker economic data from China and resurgence in the dollar index. The yellow metal wiped out most gains made through December, and came close to breaking below the coveted $2,000 an ounce level as the dollar and Treasury yields rebounded last week. Dollar shot up to a one-month highs, while Treasury yields saw extended gains after retail sales data for December read stronger than expected. However, a supportive factor for oil prices came from the OPEC demand outlook report. OPEC on Wednesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said 2025 will see a robust increase in oil use, led by China and the Middle East, in a surprise early prediction. The 2025 forecast is in line with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' view oil use will keep rising for the next two decades, in contrast to bodies such as the International Energy Agency, which predicts it will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy. Furthermore, the re-routing of a growing number of ships around Africa to avoid potential attacks in the Red Sea is altering refueling patterns and boosting demand for bunker fuel at far-flung ports, from the Mauritius to South Africa to the Canary Islands. Natural gas bounced from the low on increased demand. Freezing temperatures in several U.S. regions triggered peak power demand in parts of the country on Wednesday, after homes and businesses consumed a record amount of natural gas for heating and power generation. The severe winter storm dumped snow across a broad part of the country last week, shutting a Gulf Coast refinery in Texas, triggering malfunctions at others, and halving North Dakota's oil production. Base metals also faced downward pressure, influenced by both the Fed's hawkish stance and the disappointing Chinese economic data. Concerns over China were a key weight on copper prices over the past two years, as markets feared that cooling growth in the world’s largest importer will dent demand for the red metal. With the Chinese economy showing little signs of improvement in recent months, this trend is expected to persist.
Castor seed prices rebounded after a five-week decline, providing much-needed support. However, cotton candy prices experienced a continuous six-week decline. A similar trend was observed in cotton oil seed cake, facing price decreases for the eighth consecutive week due to weakened demand. Selling persisted in kapas as well. In the spice market, fresh buying was noted in jeera and turmeric, while dhaniya prices remained relatively stable. The guar market, on the flip side, faced profit booking after being unable to sustain higher levels.
Sugar is highly politically sensitive commodity in India. If sugar prices sky rockets, it hurts everyone & if prices fall too much, and goes lower than production cost then it hurts farmers as well as sugar producers. India ranks first globally in sugar production. It produced about 37 million metric tons of sugar in 2022. It is not only responsible for the livelihood of sugarcane farmers in rural areas but also provides employment to about 500 thousand workers in the sugar mills. Apart from being the leading sugar producer, India was also the third-largest exporter of sugar in the world in 2022.
Recent Developments
India’s sugar production this season, which started on October 1, 2023, was 14.87 million tonnes (mt) until January 15. This is seven per cent lower triggered by lower sugarcane output. Government initiatives, such as diverting cane from sugar to ethanol, contribute to the decline, though Maharashtra and Karnataka show unexpected sugar production spikes.
According to National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) data released recently, 509 factories are operational now against 511 factories until December 31.
Since sugar recovery rate is at par with last year, the actual sugar output will depend on how much sugarcane crop comes to the mills for crushing. So far, sugar mills across the country have crushed 156.3 mt of sugarcane and produced 14.87 mt of sugar with an average sugar recovery at 9.51 per cent, between October 1 and January 15 in 2023-24 sugar season. In the corresponding period of last season, 519 mills were operational and had crushed 168.15 mt of sugarcane to produce 16 mt of sugar with average sugar recovery at 9.52 per cent. The total sugar production for the season is estimated at least 30.55 million tonnes.
Initiatives have been taken by the government to increase sugarcane availability for sugar production. The government has implemented measures such as banning sugarcane juice for ethanol and increasing ethanol rates from heavy molasses. These actions have led to a shift in cane diversion towards sugar production.
State Wise Production
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka are the leading sugar-producing states. Uttar Pradesh is expected to produce 11.5 million tonnes, Maharashtra 9 million tonnes, Karnataka 4.2 million tonnes, Tamil Nadu 1.2 million tonnes and Gujarat 1 million tonnes by the end ofthe current sugar season.
In Uttar Pradesh, 120 factories are in operation and have crushed 46.57 mt of sugarcane to produce 4.61 mt of sugar with 9.90 per cent average recovery until January 15 of October 2023-September 2024 season whereas 117 factories had crushed 44.12 mt of sugarcane and produced 4.02 mt of sugar with 9.10 per cent recovery.
On the other hand, in Maharashtra as many as 197 sugar mills have crushed 54.84 mt of sugarcane to produce 5.1 mt of sugar with 9.3 per cent recovery as against 204 sugar factories had crushed 63.39 mt of sugarcane to produce 6.09 mt of sugar with 9.6 per cent recovery.
The rupee experienced a turbulent week, retracing some gains from its recent peak of 82.77 againstthe U.S. dollar. Despite market sentiment leaning towards further appreciation, the dollar rebounded as expectations for early rate cuts in March diminished,fuelled by robust U.S. economic data. Investor confidence in a Fed rate cut in March fell to 54%, down from 73% on January 11, according to CME's Fed Watch tool. In contrast, India's central bank,represented by Governor Shaktikanta Das at Davos, emphasized a cautious stance on rate cuts. Das stated that rate cuts would only be considered if inflation stabilizes around the 4% target, with policymakers yet to discuss the topic.He highlighted thatrate decisions would hinge on domestic factors, projecting a 7% economic growth in the next fiscal year and an average inflation of around 4.5%, providing potential support for the rupee at lower levels. Looking ahead, the bias for the rupee is anticipated to remain positive in the coming week. On the global front, the U.S. dollar is poised for a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and a cautious stance on rate cuts from central bankers. The dollarindex is up 0.9% to 103.4, and againstthe Japanese yen, it has gained almost 5% this year. Confidence in the Bank of Japan's potentialrate hike has been rattled. Meanwhile, a more hawkish tone from European central bankers tempered expectations forrate cuts in Europe, limiting the euro's decline against the dollar. The upcoming ECB January monetary policy meeting next week will be closely watched for potential market impact. The outlook suggests potential for the euro and pound to rally unless global risk sentiment disrupts the current move.
USDINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.2. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.8 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.5 levels.
One can buy near 82.9 for the target of 83.5 with the stop loss of 82.6
GBPINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.5. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 106.5 levels.
One can buy near 105.4 for the target of 106.4 with the stop loss of 104.9
EURINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.95. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89.75 levels, while resistance is expected near 91.37 levels.
One can sell near 90.8 for the target of 89.8 with the stop loss of 91.3
JPYINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 57.4. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 33 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55 levels, while resistance is expected near 56.4 levels.
One can sell near 56.5 for the target of 55.5 with the stop loss of 57
Shares of Shree Marutinandan Tubes Ltd listed at a 46 percent premium after the company's public issue was subscribed over 47 times last week. Shree Marutinandan Tubes' Rs 14.30-crore IPO, consisting solely of fresh shares, had opened for bids on January 12 and closed on January 16. Established in 2013, the company manufactures galvanised tubes, ERW MS tubes (15NB to 1000 NB), and black tubes for diverse sectors like agriculture, oil, solar energy, healthcare, housing, irrigation, and engineering. For the period ending September 2023, the company reported a revenue of Rs 42.77 crore and a net profit of Rs 1.42 crore. In 2022, official documents reveal a revenue of Rs 47 crore and a profit of Rs 2 crore. The IPO proceeds will address the working capital needs, cover public issue expenses, and serve general corporate purposes. Promoters include Vikram Shivratan Sharma, Bharat Shivratan Sharma, and Kusumlata Shivratan Sharma. Swastika Investmart Ltd led the IPO, and Bigshare Services Pvt Ltd acted as the registrar. Swastika Investmart is the market maker for Shree Marutinandan Tubes IPO.
New Swan Multitech stock made an impressive debut, listing at a 90 percent premium over the IPO price on January 18. The stock opened at Rs 125.4 against the issue price of Rs 66 on the BSE SME platform. Ahead of the listing, New Swan Multitech shares were trading at an 80 percent premium in the grey market, which is an unofficial ecosystem where shares start trading before the allotment in the IPO and until the listing day. Most investors track the grey market premium (GMP) to get an idea of the listing price. The bumper listing was on the back of strong subscription figures. The offer was subscribed 384 times and the retail portion was booked 388 times. New Swan Multitech’s public offer opened for subscription on January 11 and closed on January 15. The price band for the issue was fixed at Rs 62-66 per share. Through the IPO, the company raised Rs 33.11 crore. The offer was entirely a fresh issue of 50.16 lakh shares. The company will use the proceeds for the purchase of certain machinery for the existing manufacturing unit at Raian, Ludhiana, repaying debts and working capital requirements. The remaining amount will be used for general corporate purposes. Hem Securities and Share India Capital Services were the book-running lead managers of the New Swan Multitech IPO, while Bigshare Services was the registrar for the issue. The promoters of the company are Upkar Singh, Barunpreet Singh Ahuja and Kanwardeep Singh.
Shares of IBL Finance listed at a 9.8 percent premium over the IPO price on January 16. The stock opened at Rs 56 against the issue price of Rs 51 on the NSE SME platform. Within minutes, the stock jumped 15.2 percent over the issue price to Rs 58.8. Ahead of the listing, IBL Finance shares were trading at a 7 percent premium in the grey market, which is an unofficial ecosystem where shares start trading before the allotment in the IPO and until the listing day. Most investors track the grey market premium (GMP) to get an idea of the listing price. The issue had received a decent response from investors. The offer was subscribed 17 times and the retail portion was booked 24 times. The IBL Finance IPO opened for bids on January 9 and closed on 11th. The price for the issue was fixed at Rs 51 per share. Through the IPO, the company raised Rs 33.41 crore. The offer was entirely a fresh issue of 65.5 lakh shares. The company will use the proceeds to augment the Tier-I capital base to meet the future capital requirements, arising out of the growth of the business and assets. The remaining amount will be used for general corporate purposes. Fedex Securities was the book-running lead manager, Bigshare Services was the registrar and Market-Hub Stock Broking was the market maker for the issue.
Rajasthan-based KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration has filed preliminary documents with the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds through an initial public offering. The IPO will be fresh issue of 1,93,05,000 equity shares by the company, documents filed on January 16 show. The Santosh Kumar Yadav and his wife Anju Devi-promoted company may also consider a pre-IPO placement of up to 4,77,990 equity shares. If the company raises funds in pre-IPO placement, then the issue size will be reduced accordingly. KRN manufactures fin and tube type heat exchangers for the heat ventilation air conditioning and refrigeration industry (HVAC&R). It plans to use the proceeds for setting up a manufacturing facility at Alwar in Rajasthan at and for general corporate purposes. KRN has a manufacturing facility in RIICO Industrial Area in Neemrana. The company supplies its products, including condenser coils, evaporator units, evaporator coils, header/copper parts, fluid and steam coils and sheet metal parts, to customers like Daikin Airconditioning India, Schnieder Electric IT Business India, Kirloskar Chillers, Blue Star, Climaventa Climate Technologies and Frigel Intelligent Cooling Systems India, the documents say.
Liquor maker Allied Blenders and Distillers has refiled the preliminary papers with the capital market regulator for raising Rs 1,500 crore from the public. The initial public offering (IPO) is proposed to be a mix of fresh shares worth Rs 1,000 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of shares worth Rs 500 crore by the promoters. Promoter Bina Kishore Chhabria will sell Rs 250 crore of shares in the OFS, while other promoter Resham Chhabria Jeetendra Hemdev will offload shares worth Rs 125 crore. Neesha Kishore Chhabria, the part of promoter group, also intends to sell Rs 125 crore of shares in the OFS. The OFS size has been reduced to half at Rs 500 crore from Rs 1,000 crore proposed in the in the previous draft red-herring prospectus (DRHP) the company had filed with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). All the three promoters later lowered their OFS portion to cut it down to half. The Mumbai-based liquor firm had filed the first draft IPO papers in June 2022 with a target to raise Rs 2,000 crore from listing. Sebi gave the green light to the IPO in December 2022, but the company didn't proceed despite positive market conditions. India's third largest IMFL (Indian-made foreign liquor) company may consider raising of Rs 200 crore through a preferential issue or any other method, before the filing of the red herring prospectus with the Registrar of Companies for a pre-IPO placement.
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DSP Mutual Fund announced the launch of DSP Multicap Fund, an open-ended scheme that offers investors the flexibility to invest across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks, investment styles and industries. With dedicated market cap exposure to mid and small caps along with timely rebalancing, the multicap strategy offers investors better diversification and improvement in performance compared to the Nifty 500, said a press release. Despite investing in the same set of stocks, the multicap strategy has outperformed the Nifty 500 almost 8 out of 10 times over 5 year rolling periods between April 1, 2005 and November 30th, 2023, the fund house said. The asset allocation of the scheme can be a minimum of 75% and a maximum of 100% in equity and equity related securities of which large, mid, and small caps can account for a minimum of 25% exposure and a maximum of 50%. The scheme can also have up to 25% exposure to equity and equity related overseas securities and Debt & Money Market Instruments and up to 10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs. The New Fund Offer for DSP Multicap Fund will open for subscription on January 8, and will close on January 22.
Bandhan Mutual Fund has announced the launch of the Bandhan Multi Asset Allocation Fund, an open-ended scheme that enables investment across diverse asset classes including Indian equities, international equities, arbitrage, fixed income, gold and silver. Studies have established that asset allocation, rather than security selection or market timing, is the dominant factor impacting return variability, the fund house said. The new fund will adopt a multi-asset allocation strategy to optimize reward and risk by diversifying investments across various asset classes, each offering unique advantages in terms of growth, stability, and inflation protection. The New Fund Offer (NFO) is set to open on Wednesday, 10 January, and will close on 24 January. Investments in the Bandhan Multi Asset Allocation Fund can be made through licensed mutual fund distributors, investment advisors, online platforms, or directly at the website of bandhan mutual fund.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched ICICI Prudential Nifty50 Value 20 Index Fund. ICICI Prudential Nifty50 Value 20 Index Fund is an open-ended index scheme replicating Nifty 50 Value 20 Index. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on January 29. The scheme will invest in the securities included in the Nifty50 Value 20 Index (underlying index) which consists of the top 20 most liquid value blue chip companies listed on the NSE forming part of Nifty 50. The 20 constituents in the portfolio will be from the Nifty 50 Index. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that closely correspond to the returns of its benchmark Nifty50 Value 20 Index, subject to tracking error. The scheme will be managed by Nishit Patel, Priya Shridhar, and Kewal Shah. The scheme will allocate 95-100% in equity and equity related securities of companies constituting the underlying index (Nifty50 Value 20 Index) and 0-5% in money market instruments including TREPs and units of debt schemes. The minimum application amount for daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly SIP is Rs 100 (plus in multiple of Re 1) with minimum six installments.
Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund has announced the launch of two ETFs: Bajaj Finserv Nifty 50 ETF and Bajaj Finserv Nifty Bank ETF. The new fund offer or NFO of the schemes will open for subscription on January 15 and will close on January 18. The schemes will re-open for continuous sale and repurchase by January 29. The schemes will be available as tradeable securities for buying and selling on the BSE and NSE platforms by January 29. Bajaj Finserv Nifty 50 ETF, an open ended exchange traded fund tracking Nifty 50 Index, will be benchmarked against Nifty 50 TRI. Bajaj Finserv Nifty Bank ETF, an open ended exchange traded fund tracking Nifty Bank Index, will be benchmarked against Nifty Bank TRI. The schemes will be managed by Sorbh Gupta and Ilesh Savla. The schemes will be suitable for investors who are seeking long-term capital appreciation and want investment in securities covered by Nifty 50 Index and Nifty Bank Index, and gain access to growth of potential market leaders.
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