In the week gone by, global markets witnessed volatile trade as inflation in the US Ihas heated up investors' concerns globally. Actually, subsequent comments from a Federal Reserve official raised fears the US central bank may hike rates aggressively to fight inflation. Despite the progress on the Iran nuclear deal and strong quarterly earnings, markets witnessed selling pressure. On the interest rates front, as policy makers face one of the fastest pace of price increases in the developed markets and global stock markets are pricing in the likely interest rate hike by central bankers. European markets moved little higher after ECB President’s comments stating that there are lower chances of a measurable tightening of monetary policy. Meanwhile, a business sentiment indicator for the Japanese economy logged the steepest plunge in over a decade in January amid concerns fueled by COVID-19 infection resurgence. Another data showed that Japan's wholesale inflation slowed in January but hovered near the record pace hit in November. While Japan's inflationadjusted gross domestic product expanded by just 0.1% in December from the previous month.
Back at home, domestic markets too witnessed volatile trade tracking global cues. However, markets reacted positively to RBI’s decision to keep the key interest rates on hold. This is the tenth consecutive time that the rate has remained unchanged. RBI governor has further said that the 'accommodative' stance will continue as long as needed. Meanwhile, RBI has projected India's economic growth for the financial year 2023 (FY23) at 7.8%. And it maintains CPI inflation forecast of 5.3 percent for FY22. At home, stock-specific action will continue as we are in the earning season. Global and domestic macro-economic data, trend in global stock markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil prices will dictate trend on the bourses in the trading week ahead. Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will also be watched.
On the commodity markets front, Commodities continued their rock solid performance on record supply crunch amid stable demand. CRB is just few points away from 280 ranges. Investors are closely watching the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks which resumed this week. A deal could lift U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and ease global supply tightness. Crude oil can trade volatile in a range of 6400-7000 levels. Bullion is likely to trade up. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 48200-49500 and 61500-64500 respectively. Base metals can give buying opportunity on every dip. GDP Growth Annualized Prel and Inflation Rate of Japan, Unemployment Rate and Employment Change of UK, GDP Growth Rate of Euro Area, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of Euro Area and Germany, Inflation Rate of China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of UK and Canada, Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes of US, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Australia etc are loads of triggers scheduled this week which can influence commodities prices.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has delivered an encouraging performance during the year (Cy2021). The third wave of Covid has not caused any significant impact on business. Management believes that it will continue to further strengthen distribution in under-penetrated territories, enhancing volumes, and increasing market share. The management is confident of delivering a much stronger performance going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1152 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/BVx of 9.93x and CY22 BVPS of Rs.116.03.
The company is doing well and according to the management, ECD segment continues its strong performance and the business is growing across categories and geographies. Its strategic investments in sales channels, consumer centric product innovation and technology enablement has aided the strong performance. E-com and Rural channels reported increased share in the overall business. Cost reduction program delivered strong results driving bottom line faster than topline Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.455 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year above average P/Bv of 11x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.41.38.
The stock closed at Rs 1254.45 on 11th February, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 655.95 on 19th February, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1534.50 on 16th August, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1137.69
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Moreover, the stock has been consolidating in range of 1100 to 1220 for few months and has given the breakout of same during last week. It has ended with over 6.5% gains with positive bias so further upside is anticipated from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1230-1240 levels for the upside target of 1350-1380 levels with SL below 1160 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 378.05 on 11th February, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 180.75 on 10th February, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 385.90 on 19th October, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 288.15
As we can see on charts that stock is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows sort for “Rising Channel” on weekly chart which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the pattern breakout along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the same so buying momentum may continue for coming days. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD, they are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 372-375 levels for the upside target of 405-415 levels with SL below 355 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets witnessed volatile moves last week in absence of any clear trend. Nifty indices ended the week above 17300 mark while bank nifty manage to close above 38500 levels. From derivative front, both call & put writers seen active at 17400 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 16.35 % while that for put options closed at 17.59. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 17.71%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.36. From technical front Nifty is hovering around its 100 days exponential moving average on daily charts which is placed at 17370 levels. The secondary oscillators suggests that mixed moves in index likely to continue in upcoming sessions as well. However traders can expect some volatility in upcoming sessions as well. For Nifty 17200-17100 zone would act as strong support while 17550-17650 zone could cap any sharp upside. Bank nifty has major supports at 38100 & 37800 levels. However, for further upside index need to give break above 39200 levels to regain its bullish momentum.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Apr) witnessed corrections for the fifth consecutive week in a very tight range as new season turmeric is hitting the physical market. The immediate resistance is near 10500 levels. In the coming week, we expect the prices to trade within the broad range of 9550 – 10300 levels. Currently, the prices are up about 29.6% y/y on expectation of lower production and anticipation improving demand. In the first 9-months (Apr-Dec) of FY 2021/22, exports down 20.7% to 1,16,400 tons compared to last year but higher by 8.8% compared with 5-year average. The demand for turmeric improving on expectation of export demand coming up but new season arrivals put pressure on prices. There is a sharp rise in arrivals, as the benchmark Nizamabad market in Telengana as arrivals were pegged at 40,000 bags (1 bag = 65 kg) compared with 20000-25000 a week earlier. Jeera futures (Mar) closed higher for the seventh consecutive week to trade at 3-year high levels but now have immediate resistance at 21070 levels. The weekly trend is still in uptrend with the support at 20075 levels. It is likely to trade towards its resistance and it broken can trade higher till 21500 levels on reports of crop damage due to unfavorable weather conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Currently prices are higher by 56.4% y/y on reports of drop in area and improving domestic demand. There are reports of crop damage due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. In 2021/22, area under Jeera in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh ha Vs 4.69 lakh hac last year and according to 2nd advance estimates production expected to fall by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes Vs 4.0 lt last year. As per Govt. data, exports of jeera for Apr- Dec down by 24% Y/Y at 1.74 lakh tonnes compared to 2.30 lt last year. Dhaniya futures (Apr) closed higher for the second consecutive week on reports of lower than expected production in the coming season. Last week, it has created a resistance near 10900 levels and the support is seen at 10450 levels. We expect the prices to move higher towards new high of 11500 levels, if it breaks the resistance. Currently prices are higher by 67.2% y/y and up 23.4% since January due to lower area as farmers have shifted to other crops due to low returns last year and expecting lesser production while the exports are normal due to higher prices. As per govt. data, exports have been down 13% during Apr-Dec period at 37,500 tonnes Vs 43,100 tonnes last year but 11% higher compared to 5-year average. There are reports that the production may be affected due to unfavorable weather condition coupled with 10-15% lower sowing areas as farmers have shifted to Oilseeds and pulses crop. The harvesting of coriander is about to start in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
Bullion moved northward with baby steps taking benefits of consolidation in equity amid some fall in dollar index, though in later part of the week it saw a pause in its rally due to fresh buying in dollar index. Dollar index has seen strong recovery from the low of near 95.2 and now trading near 95.95 is giving a pause in the upside in gold and silver prices. The dollar was up with higherthan- expected U.S. inflation data and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve policymaker accelerating expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes. The U.S. inflation data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) grew 7.5% year-on-year, and 0.6% month-on-month, in January. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes topped 2% for the first time in 2-1/2 years. It is expected to touch 96.4 in near term. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continued as Russia and Ukraine failed to reach any breakthrough in talks with France and Germany. Russia is holding military exercises in Belarus and the Black Sea following the buildup of its forces near the border with Ukraine. Hence, one can expect a fresh buying in bullion counter from lower levels this week. On lower side we can expect 48400- 48000 levels in gold and buying should emerge on lower side. On higher side, expect a 49500-49700 in short term. Silver too, followed the footsteps of gold and closed in green territory. It may take support between 6100-62000 levels whereas it can take support of upside in base metals as well as of gold also and thus we can expect 64500-65500 levels in silver in short term.
Base metals may trade in the range with negative bias as stronger-thanexpected U.S. inflation data stoked worries about a more aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve that pressurize the counter while signs of tightness across the base metal sector continue to persist. The U.S. central bank is facing increasing pressure to take a stronger stand against inflation following an unexpectedly large jump in U.S. consumer prices in January. However, rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine and worries about smelter shutdowns in China and Europe and dwindling inventories at exchange warehouses have fuelled market anxiety about metals supply. New bank lending in China more than tripled in January from the previous month, beating forecasts and hitting a record high, as the central bank seeks to shore up slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy. Copper may trade in the range 750-790 levels. Copper held on major exchanges is now at alarming levels, representing just three days of global supply. Zinc can move in the range of 290-320 levels. The north move may continue on concerns of further supply disruptions because of prolonged high power prices and persistent environmental restrictions in China. International Lead and Zinc Study Group forecast the global need for refined zinc to rise to 14.09 million tonnes in 2022 and 14.41 million tonnes next year. Lead can move in the range of 180-190 levels. Nickel may trade in the range of 1700-1850 levels. Aluminum may move towards 270 with support of 248 on persisting supply concern. Smelter shutdowns in China and in Europe due to high energy costs and West's stand-off with Russia over Ukraine have dampened aluminium supply.
Crude prices trade in the range of 6450-7100 levels with negative bias. The price rally may run out of steam as optimism grows that Iran nuclear deal talks are headed in the right direction and as the dollar rallies as money markets start to price in a supersized Fed hike. Investors were also eyeing indirect talks between the United States and Iran to revive a nuclear deal, which resumed last week after a 10-day break. A deal could see the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and ease global supply tightness. A bigger-thanexpected jump in U.S. inflation that stirred hawkish Federal Reserve comments added to the bearish sentiment. On other side, OPEC said that world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year. The group forecast a gain of 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, as the global economy posts a strong recovery from the pandemic. Dwindling U.S. crude stockpiles and deteriorating situation over Ukraine issue may push crude prices higher. Natural gas may continue to trade high volatility. The prices may plummet as temperatures in the United States are undoubtedly going to get warmer. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout most of the United States for the next 2-weeks. As long as it is going to be the case, consumption demand from the residential and commercial sectors may decline and the market is likely to continue seeing selling pressure going forward. However, declining storage level, already below the prior five-year average, may lift the prices. Natural gas may move in the wide range of 280-330 levels.
Cotton futures (Feb) closed higher for fourth consecutive week as demand is outpaced by the supplies. Last week, it touched its all-time high of 38230 supported by good domestic demand and cut in production by USDA monthly report. It is likely to trade higher towards 39000 with support at 37610 levels. In its latest February report, the USDA has cut its forecast for global cotton production in 2021-22 to 120.15 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 120.96 million bales projected in Jan 2022. World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are now 700,000 bales lower, due to 800,000-bale drop in production. 500,000 bales reduce India’s crop as a slow pace for market arrivals indicates weaker than expected yields. Current domestic prices are high 78.7% y/y and jumped about 12.4% in the New Year due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. According to the CCI, MY2021/22 crop arrivals as of Jan 2022 estimated at 18.27 million 170-kilogram bales/3.10 MMT) which is 9% lower than 3-year average. The cotton production estimate reduced by 12.00 lakh bales to 348.13 lakh bales Vs 360.13 lakh bales earlier while domestic consumption increased by 10 lakh bales by CAI. Guar seed futures (Mar) is trading in a range from last 6 weeks 6200-6600. Last week we have seen recovery from 5- week low levels due to improving physical demand. It is expected to trade higher towards 6700 levels with support at 6050. Higher crude oil prices and increase in rig count in the US is good news for the guar gum demand and the prices may support in coming weeks. Currently, prices are up 59.4% y/y on expectation of weakest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand due to higher crude oil prices. In Dec, Guar gum exports are higher by 32% y/y at 32420 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Dec) are up by 42.6% y/y at 2.42 lakh tonnes. Castor Seed (Mar) closed higher for the third consecutive week and likely to trade higher towards 6900 with support at 6480. The prices have recovered in 2022 and currently higher by 53.6% y/y, as production of castor expected to be lowest in last three years. Gujarat agriculture department’s second advance estimate cut castor seed production by 1 lakh tonnes to 13.02 lt compared 14 lt in the first estimate. Last year production was 13.45 lt. Prices were down in Dec as Castor oil exports during Sep-Nov down by 16% at 1.39 lakh tonnes compared to 1.65 lt last year. Similarly, castor meal exports fall by 16.5% y/y during (Aug-Dec).
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COPPER MCX (FEB) contract closed at Rs. 785.35 on 10th Feb 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 812.60 on 10th May’2021 and a low of Rs. 585.00 on 01st Feb’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 757.77. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.667.
One can buy near Rs. 755 for a target of Rs. 800 with the stop loss of 730.
ZINC MCX (FEB) contract was closed at Rs. 308.65 on 10th Feb’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 326.80 on 18th Oct’2021 and a low of Rs. 255.50 on 06th Oct’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 299.38. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.853.
One can buy near Rs. 302 for a target of Rs. 320 with the stop loss of Rs 294.
GUARSEED NCDEX (MAR))contract closed at Rs. 6281.00 on 10th Feb’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 7250.00 on 29th Oct’2021 and a low of Rs. 5600.00 on 06th Dec’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6900.92. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.188.
One can buy near Rs. 6200 for a target of Rs. 6500 with the stop loss of Rs. 6080.
Commodities continued their rock solid performance on record supply crunch amid stable demand. CRB is just few points shy away from 280 ranges. There are more commodities futures contracts trading in backwardation, a market structure that indicates scarcity than at any point since at least 1997. That’s a total of 19 out of 28 raw materials encompassing everything from energy to grains, according to Bloomberg. With a fall in both US treasury yield and dollar index, bullion has seen fresh buying, backed by inflow in ETF as well. Gold clearly outperformed silver. Base metals continued their Bull Run, but it was aluminum which surprised the market with its record upside. Aluminum has made a record high on MCX of 262.75, surpassing the high of 2021 of 259.35 on mobility restrictions that have hampered transportation of raw materials and aluminum ingots in China. Aluminum stocks in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 761,950 tonnes, the lowest since 2007 whereas demand is stable. China's National Development and Reform Commission outlined plans to bolster the construction of new infrastructure, a source of copper demand. Mining activity at Peru's Las Bambas copper mine, which accounts for 2% of global supply, has started to fall sharply after protesters blocked a key access road. China's imports of refined nickel doubled to 261,000 tonnes with a marked acceleration over the second half of last year. The strengthening demand pull from the electric vehicle sector is also evident from fast-growing imports of nickel sulphate. The London-Shanghai arbitrage is moving in favour of exports from China as smelter closures in Europe open up supply-chain gaps and send premiums soaring. There is the potential for more export flows, given continued low LME stocks and persistent high physical premiums. Oil prices saw profit booking from the higher side, after rallying on an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories in the previous session, as investors await the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks that could add crude supplies quickly to global markets. In two weeks’ time span natural gas prices dived from 412 to 297.
Castor prices surged for nonstop third week as production of castor is expected to be lowest in last three years amid good demand. Rally looked tired in guar counter on the absence of aggressive demand amid smooth old stocks availability of guargum. Cocud, cotton and kapas recovered from the lower levels. Current domestic prices are high 76.7% y/y and jumped about 11.8% in the New Year due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Jeera saw super rally, from below 16000 to above 21000 in just nine weeks on aggressive demand amid negligible supply from Turkey and Syria. There are reports of crop damage due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. New season arrivals are putting pressure on turmeric prices.
As the global economy and financial markets begin to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers around the world are seeing higher prices for goods and services, and inflation has become a worldwide phenomenon and a chief concern for economies. It is the most widely measured by Consumer Price Index. Inflation is also known as the decline of a given currency's purchasing power over time.
The U.S. rate of inflation climbed again in January to 7.5% and stayed at a 40-year high. The latest ECB forecasts point to a headline inflation of 3.2% this year—above the central bank’s target—before coming down to 1.8% in 2023 and 2024. Japan's wholesale inflation slowed in January but hovered near the record pace hit in November, data showed, a sign persistently high raw material costs were prompting more firms to raise prices.
Fundamentally different inflation : The recent acceleration in the rate of inflation appears to be fundamentally different from other inflationary periods that were more closely tied to the regular business cycle. The main driver of the current inflation are the continuing disruptions in global supply chains amid the coronavirus pandemic; turmoil in the labor markets; the fact that today’s prices are being measured against prices during last year’s COVID-19-induced shutdowns; and strong consumer demand after global economies are reopened.
Central Banks actions inevitable : Many central banks initially played down inflation concerns. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others also characterized higher consumer prices as merely a “transitory” problem—due to, mainly, of shipping delays and temporary shortages of supplies and workers as the economy rebounded from the pandemic recession much faster than anyone had anticipated. But now, the Fed has radically changed course as many expect consumer inflation to remain elevated at least through this year, with demand outstripping supplies in numerous areas of the economy. The Fed has made clear it will fight inflation, and it is widely expected to raise interest rates multiple times this year, starting with a quarter-point hike in March.
Consumer Price Index & commodities : The Consumer Price Index incorporates the prices of commodities like crude oil, natural gas, and agricultural commodities. Since 1991, energy-related commodities and broad commodity indexes, such as the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index, consistently exhibited the highest level of correlation with inflation of all commodities. Gold has historically performed well amid high inflation. In years when inflation was higher than 3%, gold’s price increased 14% on average. Further, in the long run, gold has outpaced US inflation and moved closer in pace to money supply, which has significantly increased in recent years. Although demand is likely to be pressured by higher nominal interest rates again in 2022 but could benefit from continued inflation concerns. Silver has also similar story. But it’s a different story with oil as hedging against inflation by buying oil is actually helping drive up the price of that oil.
A global index released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization showed food prices in January climbed to their highest level since 2011. Although, rate hikes by central banks can check inflation to some extent but the commodities prices signify that there is more inflation to come in 2022, though it won’t be quite as crazy as last year as supply shocks and shipping bottlenecks that drove up prices are expected to fade in 2022.
Indian Rupee lost nearly half-a-percent this week tracking broad dollar gains as against emerging currencies in prospect of aggressive rate hikes from FOMC. We think the slide in rupee will continue next week amid recent dovish policy will cap any substantial rally in rupee as well. Meanwhile US Consumer Price Index for January came in at 7.5% YoY vs. the forecast of 7.3%. Excluding Food and Energy, the CPI index was 6.0%. The US dollar spiked higher on the news as investors will reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace than previously anticipated. On the other hand, the pound lost ground to the dollar following US inflation data. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill called for a “measured” approach to rate hikes, voicing concerns about taking “unusually large policy steps”. He echoed counterparts from across the pond, confirming that a data-driven approach will most likely be the key driver in decision making. The euro fell to a 1-week low after the release of inflation data in the US. European Central Bank Governing Council member, Olli Rehn, stressed that changes in monetary policy must be gradual. His comments suggest an initial rate increase at the end of this year or possibly early next year.
USD/INR (FEB) contract closed at 75.0625 on 10-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 75.1675 on 10-Feb-21 and a low of 74.7125 on 08-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.9120.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.50.One can buy at 75.20 for the target of 76.20 with the stop loss of 74.70.
GBP/INR (FEB) contract closed at 101.8125 on 10-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 101.8675 on 10-Feb-21 and a low of 101.0275 on 08-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.3474.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.70. One can buy at 101.75 for a target of 102.75 with the stop loss of 101.25.
| 10th JAN | US inflation surges to 7.5% in fastest annual rise for 40 years |
| 10th JAN | RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 4%, maintains accommodative stance |
| 10th JAN | BoE chief economist cautions against ‘aggressive’ approach to rate rises |
| 09th JAN | Higher black unemployment tests Fed’s goal to be more inclusive |
| 08th JAN | EU launches €43bn push for chip factories as shortages hit manufacturing |
| 08th JAN | ECB policy tightening raises risks of ‘financial accident’ |
| 08th JAN | UK consumer spending growth slows as rising living costs bite |
| 07th JAN | ECB rate expectations sting Greek and Italian government debt |
| 07th JAN | US warns Russia could invade Ukraine ‘as soon as tomorrow’ |
EUR/INR (FEB) contract closed at 85.8525 on 10-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 85.9650 on 10-Feb-21 and a low of 85.3550 on 08-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 85.0075.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.76. One can sell at 86.00 for a target of 85.00 with the stop loss of 86.50.
JPY/INR (FEB) contract closed at 64.8500 on 10-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 65.1400 on 08-Feb-21 and a low of 64.7875 on 08-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 65.1401.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.47. One can sell at 65.10 for a target of 64.10 with the stop loss of 65.60.
The Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDAI) has cleared LIC India's proposal for an initial public offering (IPO), media reports suggest. The IPO size is expected to be in the range of Rs 70,000 crore to Rs 1 lakh crore, Angel One said in a note. With this, LIC would command a market capitalisation of Rs 13-15 lakh crore post listing. LIC is likely to offer a discount of 5 per cent to its policyholders in the upcoming public offering, ET Now reported, citing sources. Also, retail bidders and employees are likely to be given some concession on the price band. At present, the government holds 100 per cent stake in LIC, which had assets worth Rs 44 lakh crore in FY21. The life insurer has 29 crore life policyholders, with Rs 34.3 lakh crore worth of life funds. LIC has 2,048 Branch offices, eight zonal offices, 113 divisional offices and 11.48 lakh agents. The Cabinet had in July last year approved the initial public offering of LIC and the stake sale is being planned in the ongoing quarter.
Inox Wind said its arm Inox Green Energy Services Ltd (IGESL) has filed drat paper with market regulator SEBI to raise up to Rs 740 crore through an initial public offer (IPO). IGESL has filed a draft red herring prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India on February 7, 2022, a BSE filing said. As per the filing, the "proposed offer consists of a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 3,700 million (Rs 370 crore) and an offer for sale of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 3,700 million (Rs 370 crore) by the company." Earlier in December 2021, the Board of IGESL (Earlier known as Inox Wind Infrastructure Services Ltd) had approved fundraising, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, including approval of the shareholders, market conditions and other considerations, by way of an initial public offer (IPO) of its equity shares comprising of fresh issue of equity shares (fresh issue) and/ or an offer for sale of equity shares by certain existing and eligible shareholders of IGESL (together with the fresh issue offer). On January 18, 2022, as an existing and eligible shareholder of IGESL, Inox Wind had accorded its approval to participate in the proposed offer through an offer for the sale of equity shares.
Harsha Engineers International has filed preliminary papers with the capital markets regulator for a Rs 755 crore initial public offering. The planned offer consists of a fresh issue of shares for Rs 455 crore and an offer for sale of shares for Rs 300 crore by promoters Rajendra Shah, Harish Rangwala, Pilak Shah, Charusheela Rangwala and Nirmala Shah. A portion of the shares will be reserved for employees, who may get them at a discount to the issue price. Harsha Engineers, the largest manufacturer of precision bearing cages in terms of revenue in the organised sector in India, may consider raising Rs 90 crore before filing the IPO papers with the Registrar of Companies, according to the draft documents. If the pre-IPO placement is completed, the fresh issue size will be reduced proportionately.
Agrochemicals company Dharmaj Crop Guard has filed its preliminary papers with market regulator Sebi for fund raising via initial public offerings. The public issue consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 216 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 14.83 lakh equity shares by promoters. The offer will also include shares reserved for its employees. Promoters Manjulaben Rameshbhai Talavia, Muktaben Jamankumar Talavia, Domadia Artiben, and Ilaben Jagdishbhai Savaliya will sell shares via OFS. The company is planning to raise around Rs 250-300 crore via public issue as per the market sources. The fresh issue money will be utilised for setting up of a manufacturing facility at Bharuch, Gujarat; working capital requirements, repaying of debts, and general corporate purposes. Dharmaj Crop Guard is an agrochemical company engaged in the business of manufacturing, distributing, and marketing of a wide range of agro chemical formulations such as insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, plant growth regulator, micro fertilizers and antibiotic to the B2C and B2B customers, having over 150 trademark registrations including branded products. It also exports products to more than 20 countries in Latin America, East African Countries, Middle East and Far East Asia.
TVS Supply Chain Solutions, a part of Chennai-based conglomerate TVS group, is filing its draft red herring prospectus for the initial public offering this week to raise around ₹5,000 crore. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of ₹2,000 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to ₹3,000 crore, said bankers. Promoters and private equity players will sell part of their stake in the OFS. Tata Opportunities Fund, Mitsubishi Corporation, Gateway Partners, and Exor are some of the investors in the company. TVS Supply Chain Solutions becomes the third logistics sector company to enter the primary market this year. TVS Supply Chain Solutions is a thirdparty logistics services provider with global operations. The company's revenue has grown at 36% CAGR since its inception in 2004 to over $ 1 billion in FY21, while its operating profits have risen 37% CAGR for the last 15 years. The company, which has a presence in over 20 countries with a workforce of more than 17,000 workers, gets 75% business from non-auto clients and 95% business from non-TVS group companies. TVS Supply Chain Solutions was started as TVS Logistics in 1995 before being hived off as a separate company in 2004.
Cloudnine, the leading chain of women, childcare & fertility hospitals, plans to raise about Rs 1,200 crore from the public market. The private equity backed chain is likely to float its IPO by the middle of 2022. Axis, JM Financial and ICICI Securities are the lead bankers for the IPO. Cloudnine chain of hospitals operates under the parent company -Kids Clinic India Private Limited. True North (erstwhile India Value Fund Advisors) is the largest shareholder in Cloudnine with about 36% stake, while other investors NewQuest and Sequoia together hold about 35% stake, promoters hold about 20-25% stake while the rest is ESOPs. Headquartered in Bengaluru, Cloudnine is spread across 16 facilities in Gurgaon, Noida, Chandigarh, Panchkula, Chennai, Mumbai and Pune. The specialties of the hospital chain include maternity care, gynaecology, paediatrics, neonatology, fertility and stem cell banking. Founded by neonatologist Dr.R. Kishore Kumar with his team of three co-founders - Rohit M.A, M. Ramachandra and Vidya Kumar in 2006, Cloudnine Group of Hospitals is backed by True North, NewQuest and Sequoia India.
AGS Transact Technologies had a forgettable debut with the stock tanking nearly 8 percent at close even as the Indian market rallied more than one percent on January 31. AGS Transact Technologies, one of the largest integrated omnichannel payment solutions providers in India, serves diverse industries such as banking, retail, petroleum, toll and transit, cash management and fintech in India and other select countries in Asia. The company raised Rs 680 crore through its public issue. The price band was Rs 166-175 per share.
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Equity mutual funds attracted a net sum of Rs 14,888 crore in January, making it the 11th consecutive monthly net inflow. However, this was much lower than the net inflow of Rs 25,077 crore witnessed in December, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Equity schemes have been witnessing net inflow since March 2021 and the segment has received a net inflow of over Rs 1 lakh crore during this period highlighting the positive sentiments among investors. Prior to this, such schemes had consistently witnessed outflows for eight months from July 2020 to February 2021 losing Rs 46,791 crore. Overall, the mutual fund industry registered a net inflow of Rs 35,252 crore during the period under review compared to a net outflow of Rs 4,350 crore in December. The average under management (AUM) of the industry rose to Rs 38.88 lakh crore at January-end from Rs 37.72 lakh crore at December-end. Within the equity segment, all categories saw net inflows barring value funds. While the flexi-cap fund category saw the highest net inflow to the tune of Rs 2,527 crore, followed by thematic funds at Rs 2,073 crore during the period under review. The debt segment saw a net infusion of Rs 5,087 crore last month as compared with a net outflow of Rs 49,154 crore in December.
The systematic investment plans (SIPs) in mutual fund (MF) industry crossed the five crore-mark in January even as market volatility pulled back the investor flows received by equity schemes. The MF industry saw 26 lakh new SIPs being opened in January, showed AMFI data. This was higher than the average 24 lakh SIPs added by industry in past five months, industry executives say the long-term trends indicate that investors now understand the importance of SIPs. The monthly SIP contributions to mutual fund industry have been growing steadily. In January, monthly SIP contributions stood at Rs 11,516 crore, which was about two percent higher than previous month.
HDFC Asset Management Company has announced the launch of twin New Fund Offers (NFOs), namely HDFC NIFTY 100 Index Fund and HDFC NIFTY100 Equal Weight Index Fund. The NFOs of HDFC NIFTY 100 Index Fund and HDFC NIFTY 100 Equal Weight Index Fund will open on February 11 and close on February 18. These NFOs provide an easy way to gain exposure to India’s large caps. Indian large caps (as represented by constituents of the NIFTY 100 Index) represent 68% of the Indian listed space by market cap as on December 31, 2021.
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