In the week gone by, Global stock market remained extremely volatile as spiking I COVID-19 infections raised the probability of a new round of economic shutdowns, and investors grappled with the realization that any potential vaccine remains months away from coming to market. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a seven-month low last week, but the pace of decline has slowed and further improvement could be limited by a raging COVID-19 pandemic and lack of additional fiscal stimulus. European stock markets weakened as worries over the impact of a rise in coronavirus cases on economic growth took the shine off the optimism over progress on a potential vaccine. Recently, OPEC said Global oil demand will rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought because of rising coronavirus cases.
Back at home, Optimism over the initial results of Pfizer's Covid vaccine and the outcome of the US presidential election kept market upbeat. However, the positivity could not last longer and market witnessed volatile movement due to weak global cues amid rise in coronavirus infections worldwide. On the flip side, India Inc showed a gradual improvement in its financial performance for the second quarter of FY21 from the dismal numbers in the previous quarter hit by a nationwide lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic. Recently government has announced a series of stimulus measures, including credit support for stressed sectors, incentives for employment generation and multiple measures for construction and housing among a dozen boosters for the Covid-hit economy under Aatmanirbhar Bharat 3.0. In a major boost to the residential real estate sector, the government has announced tax relief for home buyers and developers buying or selling below the circle rate by up to 20%. In a mixed bag of economic indicators, India’s factory output expanded after a sixmonth gap in September as the economic recovery gathered pace. However, retail inflation climbed to an above six-year high in October, driven by higher food prices, ruling out further monetary easing. To note, IIP grew 0.2% in September against a 4.6% drop in the same period last year. Retail inflation accelerated to 7.61% in October, exceeding the target rate, on dearer food inflation that was 11.07%. Consumer Price Inflation was 7.27% in September. India’s fuel consumption in October registered its first year-on-year increase since February, as slowing coronavirus cases and increased mobility accelerated an economic recovery. The Reserve Bank of India has said the Indian economy could break out of contraction and return to positive growth by the third quarter of the current financial year if the growth momentum sustains. Besides, other factors, the market will continue to keep an eye on the stimulus package to be announced by the newly elected U.S government.
On the commodity market front, hopes of ray have started to look through the windows after various economic indicators showed a distinct recovery in the Indian economy. Recently, Moody’s raised its forecast for India’s growth to -8.9% for the calendar year 2020 from -9.6% and for the coming year as well to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier, in its Global Macro Outlook 2021-22 report. The economic impact of the pandemic will long outlive the coronavirus. The actions by central banks and governments will continue to support gains in gold and silver markets. Higher oil prices may continue to keep the market excited a word of caution should be kept as there might be still plenty of hurdles on the way. Many countries, notably Europe, are currently going through second lockdown measures, eroding their demand. In its latest report, OPEC trimmed its global oil demand forecasts for the remainder of this year and 2021, citing a weaker-than-expected economic outlook and a surge in coronavirus cases. In the agri pack, the market participants would watch the sowing figures of the Rabi season fortaking cues and also the consumption side as the demand is picking up with the ongoing festivities and gradual improvementin economic activity.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company's financial performance remains strong on account of healthy profitability and return indicators, negligible borrowings, comfortable liquidity and strong debt coverage metrics. Also, the company is well positioned to benefit from rising defence expenditure supported by strong execution track record and a strong order book providing healthy revenue visibility ahead. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.111 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/E of 13.67x and FY22 EPS of Rs.8.11.
The business of the bank grew strongly and management of the bank has focused in retail banking which would continue to give strong, balanced credit growth and improvement in asset quality. The Bank completely exited from its exposure towards a large HFC during the quarter at its carrying value in books. Moreover, the Bank has reduced its dependence on the wholesale and market borrowings which have been suitably replaced by the growth of core Retail Deposits which may strengthen the financial going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.39 in 8 to 10 months time frame on one year P/Bvx 1.20 and FY22 (BVPS) of Rs.32.20.
The stock closed at Rs 90.55 on 13th November 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 33.70 on 25th March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 91.95 on 10th November, 2020. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 68.06.
As we can see on charts that stock recovered sharply from lower levels and is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it is forming an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern and has given the neckline breakout of pattern along with volumes in last week and also has closed above the same so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 89-90 levels for the upside target of 100- 104 levels with SL below 84.
The stock closed at Rs 344.25 on 13th November, 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 152.20 on 25th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 597 on 29th November, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 332.54.
After registering yearly low of 152.20 levels, stock recovered sharply and tested 400 levels in single upswing. Then after, stock witnessed healthy correction and shifted lows on upside and formed a “Symmetrical Triangle” on weekly charts which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock has given the pattern breakout and also closed above the same so follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 335-338 levels for the upside target of 380-390 levels with SL below 310.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets gained for the second straight week with nifty ended with gains of more than 3.5% while bank nifty witnesses gains of nearly 6% on back of positive global cues. Index heavyweights like ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance and Eicher Motors remain in list of top gainers. On the derivative front, put writers added hefty open interest at 12600 strike while call writers at 13000 strike hold s with maximum open interest. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 16.70% while that for put options closed at 17.06. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 20.62%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.53. For upcoming week, we believe that bias is likely to remain in favour of bulls as far nifty is holding above 12600 levels. However some volatility will remain in index with wild swings. It is advises traders to use any dip in prices to create fresh longs.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Dec) is expected to show a declining trend for the third consecutive week and move lower to test 5700-5600 levels. In days to come, the supply pressure is likely to rise as the turmeric crop is expected to hit the markets in the next few weeks, and already the spot markets are reeling under with a carry forward inventory of 45 lakh bags (60 kg each). Due to poor demand, both locally and from the upcountry markets, the prices are also quoting lower consistently, so traders are cautiously quoting the price and buying the same. The farmers are not able to reap profits by growing this yellow spice, once known as “golden crop”. An acre of land a farmer may get 20 quintals of turmeric, spending Rs. 1.50 lakh as cultivation cost/acre, which come to around Rs.7500 per quintal as cost of production. Jeera futures (Dec) is likely to trade with a downside bias in the range of 14000-14500. As per the latest statistics from the Directorate of Agriculture (Gujarat) this season the farmers have sown jeera across 10,743 ha as of 9th November, compared with 462 ha in the same corresponding period last year. On the spot markets, the sentiments are bearish and cautious as the stockists are keeping a watch on the sowing progress as well as the export demand, which is sluggish. Dhaniya futures (Dec) facing resistance near 6700-6750, may witness sell on rise and the correction may show the way to 6400-6350 levels. Lack of cues from the spot market is also weighing on prices. Coriander market in Ramganj, a key trading centre in Rajasthan, will remain shut from Nov 12-18 on account of Diwali.
Bullion counter edged higher fears over the economic fallout from mounting cases of COVID-19 overshadowed hopes of a vaccine, although the metal was on track for its worst weekly performance since late-September. Equities surged after Pfizer Inc. said its experimental COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective. Pfizer and German partner Biotech SE said they expect to seek U.S. emergency use authorization later this month. But the breakthrough highlighted the logistical challenges of distributing hundreds of millions of doses once they become available. Gold traders are trying to strike a balance between positive vaccine news and a rising number of coronavirus cases around the globe. The novel coronavirus cases soared by more than 100% in 13 U.S. states in the past two weeks, while the global tally crossed 52.45 million, underpinning the need for more stimulus. Top Democrats in the U.S. Congress urged renewed talks over a multitrillion-dollar coronavirus aid proposal, but a top Republican immediately rejected their approach as too expensive. Meanwhile, the heads of Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank warned of the economic outlook remaining uncertain. Sentiment towards gold prices has eased significantly since they peaked in August, and prices would need a strong incremental bullish narrative to exceed the highs reached in 2020. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, fell to 1,239.57 tonnes on its lowest level since late-July. This week, we may witness huge volatility and gold may trade in the range of 49500 -52400 and Silver may trade in the range of 60560-64280. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1840-$1920 and Silver may trade in the range of $22.60-$26.20.
Soybean futures (Dec) is on the way to make to the previous high of 4526 level witnessed during last year during the month of December, taking support near 4200 level. The robust demand side is lending strong support and fuelling the prices in the domestic market. The higher global prices of soybean and soy meal have made Indian soy meal competitive in the global market. Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), has projected export of soy meal for Oil Year 2020-2021 at 14 lakh tons as compared to 8.60 lakh tons during oil year 2019-2020. Overall, crushing of soybean in the country this year has risen to 8.25 lakh tonnes against 7.20 lah tonnes last year. The domestic consumption of soy meal in the country this year upto October has been recorded at 4.50 lakh tons against 5.25 lakh tonnes last year. RM Seed futures (Dec) is in extreme overbought zone and hence it is advised to keep a word of caution before entering long positions as in the recent past weeks it has not been able to surpass the lifetime high of 6330. The sowing of this winter oilseed is in progress and the latest estimates show that this season the acreage is likely to rise 10.1% to 7.6 mln ha in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), due to higher minimum support price and lucrative returns as compared to other competitive crops. The overall trend of edible oils is likely to remain bullish in the domestic as well as in the international market owing to stock tightness in palm oil and concerns of soybean supply in Brazil. These factors shall lead soy oil futures (Dec) towards 1050-1070 and CPO futures (Nov) to 920-930 levels respectively.
Crude oil prices edged higher as hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine is on the horizon outweighed worries about a drop in fuel demand from new lockdowns to contain the virus. Both WTI and Brent contracts jumped 8% on Monday, their biggest daily gains in more than five months, after drug makers Pfizer PFE.N and BioNTech 22UAy.F said their experimental COVID-19 treatment was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results. This implies that at some point in next year, people may be able to go on vacation, which means we will see a greater demand for jet fuel. In the meantime, renewed lockdowns in Europe and rising coronavirus cases in the United States are still hurting fuel demand; however the rising counts could associate with more intense business lockdowns and work at home trends that have forced a sharp curtailment in U.S. driving habits. For next week crude price may witness huge volatility within the range of 2910-3200, where selling pressure can be seen near the resistance. Natural gas future rises as participants increased their long positions as seen by the open interest. The prices were supported by strong LNG exports, tightening US gas stocks, progress on the vaccine front and increased storm activity in the Atlantic. EQT Corp, the biggest U.S. NG producer, cut its full-year spending plans by $50 million and posted a bigger quarterly loss, as a drop in fuel demand due to the coronavirus crisis hit selling prices and sales volumes. For next week Natural gas may trade with higher volatility where it may trade in range of 212-238.
Cotton futures (Nov) is expected to remain stable in the range of 19400-20000 as the underlying fundamentals are supportive. Firstly, India’s cotton crop for the current year 2020-21 is expected to be lower by about 4 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) at 356 lakh bales as against 360 lakh bales last year. On the demand side, the Cotton Corporation of India has estimated annual cotton consumption at 330 lakh bales, up about 80 lakh bales compared 250 lakh bales of the previous cotton season. Secondly, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has commenced procurement for the 2020-21 season and is ready to procure around 100 lakh bales. Most importantly, the much awaited and long delayed export agreement between Cotton Corp of India and Bangladesh government is now in its final stage and may materialise by December, eyeing export of around 1.5 mln cotton bales. Chana futures (Dec) will probably trade with a positive bias within the range of 5250-5550. The stocks with millers and stockists are now slowly depleting and they need to replenish the stocks for further crushing. There are constraints on the supply side as it is reported that for the supplies, the market was expecting to get a bargain buy from NAFED tenders but instead NAFED is not letting go of stocks at lower prices and by far have rejected all incoming bids in range of 5000-5200. This phenomenon might help push the prices bit further in coming sessions. Guar seed futures (Dec) may decline further towards 4100, while guargum (Dec) may witness correction for the third consecutive and test 6200 levels respectively. In the present scenario, poor demand and heavy supplies of guar seed are the dampening factors for the prices.
Base metals may trade with positive bias as more progress on a possible COVID-19 vaccine, the delivery of which could revive the global economy and galvanise metals demand may push the prices higher while surge in global cases of COVID-19 countered optimism from the developments in a potential vaccine. U.S. mining companies are moving fast to align themselves with Joe Biden’s climate change agenda, saying the copper and other metals they produce can help the president-elect achieve his ambitious goals to slash carbon emissions and electrify the nation’s automobiles. Copper may trade in the range of 525-550 level. China’s new bank loans fell more than expected in October, but the drop was likely seasonal and policymakers are expected to maintain solid support for the economy as the pandemic rages on. The world’s top consumer of metals will speed up the spending of special funds allocated to local governments to help support the economy. Zinc may trade in the range of 200-215 while Lead can move in the range of 148-158. The global zinc concentrate market is forecast to switch back to a surplus in 2021, after a short-lived deficit this year, Chinese metals research house Antaike said. Nickel may test 1240 level by taking support near 1160. Major mining companies — Nickel Asia and Global Ferronickel Holdings — suspended some of their operations in response to Covid-19. Aluminum may move in the range of 152-165. In LME, aluminium has hit last week its highest level since March 2019 despite forecast of global surplus of 3.2 million tonnes this year. China has imported 766,000 tonnes of primary aluminium so far this year.
NATURAL GAS MCX (NOV) contract closed at Rs. 225.70 on 12th Nov’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 251.30 on 02nd Nov’2020 and a low of Rs. 216 on 06th Nov’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 228.62. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.232.
One can buy near Rs. 220 for a target of Rs. 240 with the stop loss of Rs. 210.
NICKEL MCX (NOV) contract closed at Rs. 1196.90 on 12th Nov’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 1207.90 on 28th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs. 1043.40 on 01st Oct’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 1168.45. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.151.
One can buy near Rs. 1190 for a target of Rs. 1240 with the stop loss of Rs. 1165.
DHANIYA NCDEX (DEC) contract was closed at Rs. 6614.00 on 12th Nov’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 6938.00 on 28th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs. 6534.00 on 04th Nov’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6711.69. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.286.
One can sell near Rs. 6660 for a target of Rs. 6200 with the stop loss of Rs 6890.
The week gone by was an eventful week. Majorly, results of the US elections had kept the investors on toes. The picture was clear when the US media declared Joe Biden as the Elected President by winning over Trump by majority votes. With this, we saw a good run up in the commodity markets in all the segments from bullions, energy, base metals and agro commodities. However, the gains of the bullion counter was erased as there was a massive fall after Pfizer Inc announced that its experimental covid vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 based on initial data from a large study. The dollar index also held broad gains owing to heavy selling in haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, and weakness in the euro as COVID-19 cases surge in Europe. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near its highest level since March. The oil prices in the international market shot above $45 a barrel, touching a more than two-month high on hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine could boost demand. The market participants hoped that the world’s major producers will hold off on a planned supply increase. Natural gas witnessed some pulled back on the news that there were two storms active near the Gulf of Mexico disrupting supplies and also supported with the estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that cited U.S natural gas consumption for the 2020–21 winter season will be higher by 5% than last winter because of forecasts for colder temperatures this winter and changes in consumer behavior. The base metals remained upbeat on demand strength from a fast-recovering Chinese manufacturing sector. In agri, edible oils were the show stopper as they continued to witness unprecedented rally with prices making new life time highs after USDA cut back the U.S soybean output for the 2020-21 season. Malaysian palm oil futures hit over eight-year high on tight October inventories and gains in crude and soy oil on CBOT. Cotton prices remained steady on the reports that the Cotton Association of India lowered the domestic cotton crop for the current year 2020-21 by about 4 lakh bales at 356 lakh bales and anticipation that cotton exports for the season could hit 60 lakh bales. Chana, after some rounds of correction, bounced back from its low on account of lower level buying by the millers to replenish their inventories. The spices counters came under the supply pressure against subdued demand as the consumption couldn’t pick up despite the ongoing festivities.
With the benefits of liquidity, value appreciation, and acting as a hedge against inflation and currency valuation, investing in gold is essential for a well-diversified portfolio. Additionally, investors believe that gold brings financial security to their portfolio. Although there are many avenues to invest in gold through the purchase of physical gold or jewelry, the most convenient way is to invest in gold through dedicated gold mutual funds or gold ETFs or to invest through sovereign gold bonds. A Gold ETF is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that aims to track the domestic physical gold price. Gold ETFs are open-ended fund schemes that will invest the money collected from investors in standard gold bullion of 99.5 per cent purity. Global holdings of gold ETFs
Gold-backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) recorded their 11th consecutive month of net inflows during October, matching the record number of positive monthly flows set in April 2006. Gold ETF holdings increased by 20.3 tonnes (t), +US$1.4bn or 0.6% of assets under management.
Holdings in gold-backed ETFs hit 3,880t in Q3, another all-time high, as investment into these products grew by 272.5t. Although still substantial, the rate of increase was lower than the first half of 2020, when 300t were added in the first quarter and 431t in the second. During the first nine months of the year in total, 1,003t were added globally: inflows in Q3 marked the eighth successive quarter of net inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
In value terms, global assets under management (AUM) climbed to US$235.4bn, a sharp increase compared to US$141.1bn at the end of 2019. Although positive in each month, total inflows were uneven throughout the quarter. July was by far the strongest month with 165.6t added to holdings, as the gold priced trended strongly higher(+11%).
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed an inflow of Rs 384 crore in October, a drop of 35 per cent from the preceding month, as investors are opting to invest money directly into equities. Such instruments saw an inflow of Rs 922 crore in July, Rs 908 crore in August, Rs 597 crore in September and Rs 384 crore in October, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. With the latest inflow, net infusion in a gold exchange-traded fund or ETF category has reached to Rs 6,341 crore in the first eight months (January-October) of the year.
Indian rupee remains largely on negative this week as rising inflation concerns promoted rupee traders to unwind long positions. Meanwhile, October headline inflation touched to 7.61%, which is 6 years high as well as core inflation picked-up sharply. Apparently rate cut expectations is now ruled out but RBI's MPC still remains optimistic about the cool-off in inflation in coming quarters which may keep cap in sudden rise in rupee in coming days. On the vaccine development front FX markets still remains cautious about the distribution concerns. From the majors sterling fell sharply from its recent high after data showed the UK’s economic recovery was slowing despite huge government support programmes. UK gross domestic product grew by a lower than expected 1.1% in September from the previous month, following a 2.1% monthly gain in August. While euro is somehow managed to lift its gain amid expectations of further monetary easing programs from European central in next policy meet. Going forward next week, concerns over surge in covid cases may keep dollar at bid for a while. The US dollar is closing in on its weakest level in two-and-a-half years, after a dash for riskier assets following Tuesday’s presidential election triggered a move that has left some traders scratching their heads. The buck fell as much as 1 per cent against a basket of other major currencies on Thursday, putting it within touching distance of its August low. The move comes amid a shake-up in financial markets following the vote, which undermined expectations of a comprehensive victory for the Democrats.
USD/INR (NOV) contract closed at 74.6950 on 12-Nov-20. The contract made its high of 74.8175 on 12-Nov-20 and a low of 73.9150 on 09-Nov-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 74.2416.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.72. One can buy at 74.55 for the target of 75.50 with the stop loss of 74.00.
GBP/INR (NOV) contract closed at 98.47 on 12-Nov-20. The contract made its high of 98.8475 on 11-Nov-20 and a low of 97.31 on 09-Nov-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21- day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 97.0034.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.42. One can buy at 98.00 for a target of 99.00 with the stop loss of 97.40.
| 13th NOV | Fed Chair Powell says next month’s could be 'challenging’ |
| 12th NOV | Indian government's latest stimulus to boost jobs, credit, farm sector etc |
| 12th NOV | India's October retail inflation remained over 7% for second straight month |
| 12th NOV | U.S. data suggests economic recovery may be weakening |
| 12th NOV | Moody's expects India's GDP to shrink by 8.9% in 2020 |
| 12th NOV | IMF chief says fiscal, monetary policy support should not be prematurely withdrawn |
| 11th NOV | India to spend $27 billion over 5 years to boost manufacturing |
| 10th NOV | European lockdowns weigh on global fuel recovery |
| 06th NOV | China's inflation fails to perk up, defies broader recovery |
EUR/INR (NOV) contract closed at 88.2400 on 12-Nov-20. The contract made its high of 88.2725 on 12-Nov-20 and a low of 87.6200 on 10-Nov-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 87.4892.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.98. One can buy at 88.25 for a target of 75.65 with the stop loss of 89.25.
JPY/INR (NOV) contract closed at 70.9225 on 12-Nov-20. The contract made its high of 71.6425 on 09-Nov-20 and a low of 70.49 on 11-Nov-20 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 70.9225.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.51. One can buy at 70.90 for a target of 71.90 with the stop loss of 70.40.
Sequoia Capital-backed Indigo Paints has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator SEBI to raise about Rs 1,000 crore through an initial public offering. The IPO comprises fresh issuance of stocks aggregating to Rs 300 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to 58,40,000 equity shares by private equity firm Sequoia Capital, through its two funds SCI Investments IV and SCI Investments V, and promoter, Hemant Jalan, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Net proceeds from the issue would be used for expansion of the existing manufacturing facility at Pudukkottai in Tamil Nadu, for purchasing of tinting machines and gyro shakers and repayment/prepayment of borrowings. According to market sources, the initial public offering (IPO) is expected to fetch Rs 1,000 crore. Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, Edelweiss Financial Services and ICICI Securities are the book running lead managers to the issue. The Pune-based company manufactures a range of decorative paints and has an extensive distribution network across the country. As of September 30, 2020, the company has three manufacturing facilities located in Rajasthan, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
The Rs 6,480-crore IPO of Gland Pharma has been subscribed 2.05 times so far on November 11, the final day of bidding for all kind of investors. The public issue has received bids for 6.2 crore equity shares against IPO size of over 3.02 crore equity shares, the data available on the exchanges showed. The response from qualified institutional investors has been good on last day of the issue as their reserved portion is subscribed 6.4 times so far, while the portion set aside for retail investors has witnessed 23.6 percent subscription and that of non-institutional investors is at 50.5 percent. The IPO size mentioned above is excluding anchor book. The company raised Rs 1,944 crore from anchor investors on last Friday, at higher end of price band of Rs 1,490-1,500 per share. Gland Pharma is one of the fastest growing generic injectables-focused companies by revenue in the United States from 2014 to 2019. Company sell its products primarily under a business to business (B2B) model in over 60 countries as of June 2020 including the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, India and the Rest of the world. Company has a consistent compliance track record with a range of regulatory regimes across these markets. It also has a professional management team and one of its promoters, Shanghai Fosun Pharma, is a global pharmaceutical major. As of June 2020, company along with its partners had 267 ANDAfilings in the United States, of which 215 were approved and 52 were pending approval. The 267 ANDA filings comprise 191 ANDA filings for sterile injectables, 50 for oncology and 26 for ophthalmics related products. Its total revenue from operations has grown at a CAGR of 27.38 percent, EBITDA 36.90 percent and restated profit 55.15 percent from FY18 to FY20.
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Mutual funds pulled out a massive Rs 14,300 crore from equities in October, making it the fifth consecutive month of withdrawal, as fund managers sold stocks to meet redemption requirements. During January-May 2020, mutual funds (MFs) made a net investment of more than Rs 40,000 crore in stock markets, data available with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) showed. Moreover, during the September quarter, equityoriented mutual funds witnessed an outflow of over Rs 7,200 crore and also there was a drop in inflow from the systematic investment plan (SIP) folios. According to the data, MFs pulled out Rs 14,344 crore from equities in the month of October. This has taken the total outflow to Rs 37,498 crore from equities since June. Individually, MFs withdrew Rs 4,134 crore in September, Rs 9,213 crore in August, Rs 9,195 crore in July and Rs 612 crore in June. However,they had putin a net sum of over 40,000 crore in the firstfive months ofthe year(January-May).Ofthis, Rs 30,285 crore was invested in March.
Equity mutual fund category continue to witness net outflows in October as investors continue to sell their equity investments, especially in multi cap mutual funds and value funds, shows the latest Amfi monthly data. Equity mutual funds have been witnessing net outflows for the last five months consecutively. The net outflows take place when sales or redemption exceeds investments in mutual funds. The multi cap mutual funds saw net outflows of Rs 1,902.74 crore in October, up from Rs 1,143.86 crore in September. Value/contra funds saw net outflows of Rs 1,201.37 crore in October. Some other equity mutual fund categories also saw net outflows in October: large cap funds (Rs 550.87 crore), mid cap funds (Rs 555.53 crore), small cap funds (Rs 484.09 crore). The equity mutual fund category saw net outflows of around Rs 2,724.95 crore in October, according to Amfi. However, the outflows more than doubled this month compared to September. All equity fund categories except large & mid cap and sector funds saw outflows this month.
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