The week gone by witnessed a surge in positive sentiment across global markets as Tinvestors bet on lower interest rates and a more accommodative monetary policy. The international financial landscape appears to be shifting towards a less hawkish stance, marked by easing interest rates and increased liquidity measures. Nevertheless, uncertainties linger, including the trajectory of inflation and the potential for an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve, in its last meeting for 2023, maintained a dovish stance with unchanged interest rates for a third consecutive month. However, 'the dot plot' by policymakers forecasted a rate cut three times in the coming year, signaling optimism about inflation improvement and a cooling economy. In Europe, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and signaled an early end to its bond purchase scheme. The Bank of England, maintaining interest rates at the highest level in 15 years, stuck to its higher-forlonger message despite market expectations for cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China injected 1.45 trillion yuan ($204 billion) into commercial lenders to support its economy facing challenges like a housing slump and weak demand.
Closer to home, domestic markets followed firm global cues, with India expected to benefit from its strong fundamentals. The recent dip in US bond yields is anticipated to channel capital flows towards emerging markets like India. Meanwhile, the global shift towards easier monetary policy and the positive domestic factors paint a bright picture for India's stock markets. Going forward, domestic market will continue its bull run on the back of expected solid FIIs buying interest, strong domestic micro data and cooling down oil price to 5-month low.
On the commodity market front, anticipation surrounded the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Despite the Fed keeping the key interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, dovish remarks hinted at the possibility of three cuts in 2024, leading to a rebound in commodities. Gold and silver are expected to trade in a range of 60500-64500 and 73000-77000, respectively. Crude oil may see a limited bounce from its low, with an upside capped at 6200. Traders are closely monitoring key data releases this week, including indicators such as the IFO Business Climate, GDP Growth Rate, and Consumer Confidence in Germany, the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision, Core Inflation Rate in the Euro Area, Core and overall Inflation rates in Canada, Building Permits, Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, PCE Price Index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiments Final in the United States, as well as the GDP Growth rate in the United Kingdom. These critical economic indicators are expected to keep traders on the edge as they assess market implications.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
Based on the bookings and allthe deals thatit has signed, it expects very healthy growth in Q3 and Q4. For the entire year, it expects revenue to grow in the range of 4.5% to 5.5%. It expects operating margins for the full year to be around 18% to 19% on the back of some large deals wins and gaining shares on the cost optimization led deals. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1711 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on current P/E of 26.22x and FY25 EPS of Rs.65.25.
The bank has delivered significant growth in business and improvement in assets quality. Going forward, the robust economic activities and pick-up in the credit growth is expected to drive the future growth of the bank. The bank is focusing on digital transformation which is expected to complete in next two to three year, this would further drive the business growth and bring help reduce operating cost. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.144 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/BV of 1.08x and FY25 (E) BVPS of Rs. 133.79.
The stock closed at Rs.151 on 15th December, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.116.00 on 09th Jun, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.163.75 on 11th MAY, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.139.
Over the past six months, the stock formed a triple bottom pattern on the daily chart, indicating potential trend reversal. Additionally, the daily chart witnessed a significant breakout above a key resistance level, accompanied by a notable surge in trading volume, suggesting increased buying interest. Technical indicators collectively indicate a potential in bullish trend. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 148- 151 levels for the upside target of 163-165 levels with SL below 138 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.110.70 on 15th December, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.69.80 on 26th Dec, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs.110.70 on 15th Dec, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.90.
Asymmetric triangle breakout has occurred on the daily chart, indicating an upside potential in stock. Notably, there's been a breakout above a key resistance level, accompanied by increase in trading volume, suggesting buying interest. The stock is continuously trading above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) underscores its strength, portraying a positive trend. Technical indicators collectively indicate a potential in bullish trend. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 109-111 levels for the upside target of 124-126 levels with SL below 100 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
Charts by Reliable software
Market witnessed a strong bullish sentiment, with Nifty gaining over 2% and Banknifty recording a gain of more than 1.5%. Both indices reached all-time highs, reflecting strong investor confidence and positive market sentiment. The IT, metal and PSU bank sectors exhibited notable strength, contributing significantly to the overall market gains whereas the pharma sector emerged as a major laggard, experiencing a relative underperformance compared to other sectors. The highest call open interest for Nifty options is concentrated at 21,500 and 21,600 strike prices whereas the highest put open interest is observed at the 21,300 and 21,200 strike prices, indicating strong support zones. Banknifty options show the highest call open interest at the 49,000 and 48,200 strike prices, highlighting potential resistance levels whereas highest put open interest concentrated at the 47,500 and 48,000 strike prices. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 11.24%, while put options concluded at 12.57%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 12.32%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.47 for the week. The current market outlook is optimistic, marked by strong gains in key indices. However, the cautious stance indicated by the elevated India VIX suggests the importance of prudent risk management. In the upcoming week, Nifty may test the 21,100 level on the downside, while on the upside, it may test the 21,700 level.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices traded higher last week following cues from the weaker production prospects for upcoming season. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will keep total supplies to fall in coming weeks that will prompt stockists and millers to buy turmeric at every dips in prices. Considering the price seasonality, turmeric prices are expected to move up in Dec due to weaker production prospects for upcoming season. Robust export demand along with increasing culinary and medical uses in India will cap the major downfall in prices. April futures ruled at premium of about 2400 due to better demand outlook. Overall production is likely to remain down as compared to current year (2023-24) year production of 10.45 lakh tonnes due to lower acreages under turmeric. Acreages shrunk in year 2024-25 that will lead to fall in production by at least by 8%-10% Y-o-Y. With the recent fall in turmeric prices, turmeric export is expected to increase in coming months as per export seasonality that will support turmeric prices. Indian turmeric exports tumbled in Sep’24 by 35% Y-o-Y to 9.0 thousand tonnes with fall in imports in Bangladesh. New crop season is likely to start from Feb onwards in Telangana that will prompt stockists to offload stocks on better returns. Turmeric Apr prices are likely to trade in range of 14400-16100 in coming weeks.
Jeera futures witnessed short covering last week that pushed up prices up. Renewed buying and tighter ending stocks helped prices to move up. Limited availability of quality produce in the market and tighter stocks with millers supported firmness in prices. Gains in Jeera are likely to be limited in wake of aggressive sowing for Jeera in Gujarat about 4.33 lakh Ha was sown under jeera as on 11th Dec in Gujarat as compared to 2.24 lakh Ha of previous year. Similarly, about 6.6 lakh Ha was sown under jeera in Rajasthan so far as compared to 5.6 lakh Ha of previous year. Weakness in Jeera is likely to remain continue with improved production prospects that will force stockists to release their stocks in expectation of rise in supplies in domestic market. Total Jeera exports have slumped 32% Y-o-Y during Apr’23-Sep’23. Jeera is likely to trade in range of 32000-46000.
Dhaniya prices are likely to trade on a positive bias due to slower sowing progress for upcoming season. Sowing activities are slower so far in the year 2023 as compared to last year due to delayed kharif harvest in Gujarat as only 1.08 lakh Ha was sown under dhaniya in Gujarat as on 11th Dec Vs 2.07 lakh Ha of previous year. Similarly, about 47.2 thousand Ha was sown in Rajasthan against the 50 thousand Ha of previous year. Robust export demand is likely to support firmness in prices further. India exported about 4 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in Sep’23 against the 2.5 thousand tonnes of last year whereas overall export was reported at 66.2 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Sep’23 higher by 297% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7100-8150.
Gold recorded weekly gains as the dollar and Treasury yields weakened following the US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and signal three rate reductions in 2024 due to a faster-than-expected drop in inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at an impending discussion on cutting borrowing costs, contributing to market expectations of a 75% chance of a rate cutin March. Despite stronger US retail sales and a decline in weekly jobless claims, these positive indicators did little to alter expectations of an impending rate cut. Seventeen of 19 Fed officials projected lowerinterestrates by the end of 2024. Simultaneously,the European Central Bank and the Bank of England held their policy rates steady, committing to maintaining elevated levels to address inflation concerns. The dollar was on track for a weekly decline after reaching a four-month low, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies. The benchmark US 10-year bond yield remained near its lowest level since July. Chinese data showed industrial production grew more than expected in November, indicating that some aspects of the economy were recovering. But readings on retail sales and fixed asset investment missed expectations. On COMEX, gold found strong support around $1980 and faced resistance near $2080. The next trend will be determined by a breakout on either side of this range. Silver displayed a bullish outlook on charts, with potential support near $22.65 and resistance around $25.00. Looking ahead, on MCX, gold prices are expected to maintain a bullish bias, with a potentialtrading range of 61000-63900, while silver may trade within the range of 71500-77000 in the coming week.
Crude oil prices recorded their first weekly increase in two months, buoyed by a positive outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on oil demand for the upcoming year and a weakening dollar. The Fed's indication of the likely end of interest rate hikes and anticipated lower borrowing costs in 2024 contributed to a weaker dollar, making dollar-denominated oil more affordable for foreign buyers and potentially leading to increased demand. The European Central Bank countered expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by affirming that borrowing costs would stay at record highs despite lower inflation expectations. According to the IEA's monthly report, world oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, up by 130,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This positive outlook is attributed to an improved U.S. demand outlook and lower oil prices. However, the 2024 estimate is less optimistic than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) forecast of 2.25 million bpd in demand growth. Recent weak economic data from China, the second-largest oil consumer globally, has added pressure on oil prices. Refinery runs in November hit their lowest level since the start of 2023 due to margin pressure on non-state-owned refiners, leading to production cutbacks. Despite challenges in China's property market, industrial output and retail sales showed a better-than-expected performance, offering some relief to market sentiment amid the country's gradual post-COVID economic recovery. Looking ahead, crude oil prices on MCX are anticipated to experience fluctuation, with a potential trading range of 5700-6200. In contrast, natural gas observed a seven-week decline due to robust supply and mild winter demand. A modest rebound is expected in the coming week, with potential support around 185 and resistance near 215.
Base metals may trade sideways with bullish bias on a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts next year that would boost economic growth and metals demand. Also helping improve sentiment about the troubled property sector in top metals consumer China was news that Beijing and Shanghai relaxed home purchase restrictions. However, readout of China's agenda-setting meeting have failed to meet investors' expectation and darkened demand outlook from the world's top consumer. Nevertheless, global miner Rio Tinto's chairman on Tuesday expressed optimism about China's economic growth potential and will stick to its long-term strategy there, after a meeting with a top Chinese official. Copper may trade in the range of 710-735 levels. There’s an expected shortfall in copper supply that's likely to put significant upward pressure on prices as mine closures and production cuts could change the surplus narrative for next year. Zinc can trade in range of 210-232 levels. In November, China's refined zinc output decreased by 4.23% MoM to 579,000 mt. Lead can move in the range of 180-189. Aluminium can trade in the range of 194-208 levels. China's primary aluminium output in November climbed 4.8% from a year earlier to 3.54 million metric tons, with major producing regions adding new capacity to meet solid demand for the light metal, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Steel long (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 43500-45500 levels with positive bias. China's crude steel output in November fell 3.8% from the prior month, extending a decline for the fifth consecutive month, official data showed, as low margins and slowing demand dented enthusiasm for production at many steelmakers.
Cotton prices are expected to trade sideways to lower due to surging arrivals pressure in the market. About 1.6 lakh bales arrived on 14th Dec whereas cumulative arrivals has reached at 63 lakh bales as compared to 80 lakh bales of previous year. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected that global cotton production is expected to outpace consumption for the second consecutive year. Global cotton lint production is forecasted to grow by 3.25% to 25.4 million metric tons in the 2023-2024 season, while consumption is expected to marginally decline to 23.4 million metric tons. Arrivals of new crop are likely to pick up further with advancement of harvesting activities. Cotton MCX Dec prices are likely to trade in range of 54500-58000. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1530-1620 level. Cocud prices are expected to trade on weaker note due to demand concerns in feed meal industry. Increased availability of alternative meals will keep prices down. Cocud prices are likely to trade in range of 2640-2850.
Guar seed futures are expected to trade higher with shrinking supplies in the market. Arrivals pace has been slower that will prompt millers to for buying at prevailing rates as crush margin has improved with rise guar meal prices. Rising seasonal demand of guar meal is likely to keep crushing demand of guar seed higher in coming weeks. Overall production of guar seed has been down by 11%- 13% Y-o-Y in year 2023-24 that kept inventory level tighter for millers. Bleak export prospects of guar gum are likely to cap the gains. Persistent fall in crude oil prices and tumbling rig counts in US has raised worries over export potential of guar gum keeping guar prices down. Guar seed prices are likely to find support near 5450 whereas resistance is seen at 6000. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to honor support of 10700 whereas resistance is seen at 12800.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in domestic market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in the year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 692 tonnes of mentha oil during Apr23-Aug’23 as compared to 886 tonnes of previous year down by 21% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near 900 and resistance can be seen at 980 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with reduced supplies in the market. Arrivals have dropped as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. However, muted demand of castor oil and meal is still a major concern that will cap the excessive gains in prices. India exported about 213 thousand tonnes of castor seed during Apr’23-Oct’23 as compared to 189 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5600-6250 levels.
It closed at Rs. 727.15 on 14th Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.718.783. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.938. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.722 for a target of Rs. 740 with the stop loss of 712.
It closed at Rs. 6069.00 on 14th Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.6162.674. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.748. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.6060 for a target of Rs.5700 with the stop loss of 6200.
It closed at Rs.14950.00 on 014th Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.13334.00 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.405. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.14950 for a target of Rs. 14000 with the stop loss of 15400.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The market was on edge, anticipating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with bated breath. The Fed kept the key interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. Dovish remarks from the Fed hinted at the possibility of three cuts in 2024, suggesting a trend of interest rate cuts persisting into 2025 and 2026. This announcement caused a sudden shift in the dollar index and U.S. treasury yields, leading to a rebound in commodities from their lows. Despite the bounce, commodities ultimately closed down, hovering near the 295 mark. The dollar fell to a two-week low against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. The U.S. benchmark 10-year yield dropped to its lowest level since August. The Indian Rupee gained strength following the Federal Reserve's dovish statement, causing stagnation in gold movements. Bullion experienced a robust recovery, with gold prices on COMEX initially dropping to $1980 and then rebounding to $2040. Silver followed a similar trajectory, concluding near $24. In the energy sector, natural gas prices plummeted from $3.4 to $2.2 over six weeks, while crude oil prices slid from $88 to $68 in a few weeks. Prices touched their lowest level in six months on concerns of oversupply and after U.S. economic data showed an unexpected rise in consumer prices. Copper attempted to recover weekly losses but ultimately closed in the red as persistent concerns over an economic slowdown in top importer China largely offset optimism over lower interest rates. On the other hand, base metals such as lead, aluminum, and zinc found crucial support.
Turning to the agricultural sector, selling pressure dominated, with castor seed closing below 5900 levels. Sunflower oil prices declined for the fourth consecutive week. Cotton faced resistance near 57100 and closed below 56650, while cotton oil seeds cake experienced significant fluctuations, closing near 2800, down from recent highs of 2975. Surging arrival pressure and limited demand kept prices under pressure. About 1.55 lakh bales arrived on 13th Dec, whereas cumulative arrivals have reached 61.7 lakh bales. Bearish pressure persisted in the guar market for the fourth week due to weaker export demand. In the spices market, there was a pause in the multi-week decline, with mentha prices appreciating further. Shrinking supplies in the market triggered short covering, helping turmeric prices to move up. Jeera prices augmented on increased demand at the physical market against tighter ending stocks. Export inquiries are expected to improve with a persistent fall in prices. Supplies have dropped with a fall in production in the year 2023, pushing up mentha prices.
Jeera is not only a flavouring agent with its tinge but nowadays its price has also surprised the market players with a dash of profit. Jeera was cynosure of 2022 with more than 92% strong rally on the NCDEX due to supply concerns as production dropped in major producing states across India and higher export. Since the beginning of the year 2023, jeera futures have rallied more than 100%, and prices peaked a record high of 65,900 rupees per 100 kg in September. After that the prices dropped to around 36,000 rupees in December, as sowing improved in major growing areas. These price fluctuations and high volatility in jeera future have forced the exchange to impose high the margins up to 30-33%. High volatility and margins have not only made jeera futures expensive for many spice millers and blending companies but also it became vulnerable for small investors, farmer producer organisations and businessmen to trade and hedge their positions. Therefore, keeping in mind the interest of small businessmen and investors and to encourage more participation from traders and farmer producer organisations the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange are going to launch jeera mini contracts on December 19, 2023. Initially the contract expiring in the months of January 2024, March 2024, and April 2024 would be available for trading.
Contract Specifications of Jeera Mini (JEERAMINI) futures
The Federal Reserve signals the initiation of a rate hike cycle, the U.S. dollar is grappling with increased pressure, currently trading near a four-month low below 102.00 against a basket of six currencies. Despite this, the Indian rupee is facing challenges in capitalizing on the situation, with sustained dollar demand keeping it within a narrow range of 83.27 to 83.40 throughout the week. Looking forward, we anticipate the rupee encountering significant resistance at 83.10 in the coming week, unless unforeseen triggers disrupt the current trend for the remainder of 2023. On the global stage, the Federal Reserve's adoption of a dovish stance, projecting three 25-basis-point cuts for the next year, has fostered a global risk-on sentiment, leading to a notable decline in benchmark yields. The U.S. 10-year yield has fallen below 4%, marking the first time since August. Amid the dovish stance from the Fed, the yen emerged as the primary beneficiary, experiencing a nearly 2% gain for the week, its highest weekly increase in over a month. Further supporting the yen was the Bank of Japan's signal to end negative rates in its December meeting. As the BoJ convenes next week, any deviation from their stance on negative rates could significantly impact the JPY/INR pair. Looking ahead to the upcoming week, market attention will be on key indicators, including UK CPI figures and the Fed's favored inflation barometer, the core PCE price index, to gauge the overall trajectory of the dollar. Despite potential fluctuations, we anticipate continued weakness in the dollar, particularly against the euro and pound in the coming days.
USDINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.35. However, the pair is in oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 35 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.9 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.6 levels.
One can buy near 82.9 for the target of 83.6 with the stop loss of 82.6
GBPINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.7. However, the pair is in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 67 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 105 levels, while resistance is expected near 106.5 levels.
One can sell near 106.5 for the target of 105.5 with the stop loss of 107
EURINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.25. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 62 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 90.2 levels, while resistance is expected near 91.8 levels.
One can buy near 90.8 for the target of 91.8 with the stop loss of 90.3
JPYINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 57. However, the pair is in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 70 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 57.25 levels, while resistance is expected near 59.25 levels.
One can sell near 59 for the target of 58 with the stop loss of 58.5
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The company proposes to utilise the Net Proceeds from the Fresh Issue towards augmenting the capital base to meet future capital requirements. The main objects and objects incidental and ancillary to the main objects set out in the Memorandum of Association enable the company:
(i) to undertake existing business activities, and (ii) to undertake the activities proposed to be funded from the Net Proceeds. Further, the Company expects to receive the benefits of listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges, including enhancing the brand image among existing and potential customers and creating a public market for the Equity Shares in India.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the upper end of the price band of Rs.291, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 11.78x on TTM EPS of Rs.24.71. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 13.91x on its EPS of Rs.20.92.. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.291, pre issue, book value of Rs. 127.61 of P/Bvx 2.28x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 152.64 of P/Bvx 1.91x.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the lower end of the price band of Rs.277, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 11.21x on TTM EPS of Rs.24.71. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 13.24x on its EPS of Rs.20.92. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.277, pre issue, book value of Rs. 127.61 of P/Bvx 2.17x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 152.64 of P/Bvx 1.81x.
Founded in April 1992, Muthoot Microfin Limited, a subsidiary of Muthoot Pappachan Group, provides micro-loans to female customers with a focus on rural regions in India. In 2021, the company launched the "Mahila Mitra" mobile application, which enables digital payment methods such as QR codes, websites, SMS-based links and voice-based payment methods. As of March 31, 2023, 0. 12 crore customers have downloaded the Mahila Mitra application and .17 crore customers have made digital transactions. As of March 31, 2023, the company has 0.28 crore active customers, 1,172 branches in 321 districts in 18 states and union territories in India, and employs 10,227 people.
Market leadership with a pan-India presence: The company is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers (primarily for income generation purposes) with a focus on rural regions of India. It is the fifth largest NBFC-MFI in India in terms of gross loan portfolio as of March 31, 2023. It has 0.32 crore active customers, as of September 30, 2023. It has a well-diversified portfolio across 339 districts in 18 states and union territories in India, as of September 30, 2023. As of September 30, 2023, its gross loan portfolio in its top three states, namely Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, together accounted for 51.36% of total gross loan portfolio.
Brand recall and synergies with the Muthoot Pappachan Group: The company is part of the Muthoot Pappachan Group, a business conglomerate with presence across financial services, automotive, real estate, healthcare, information technology, precious metals, and alternate energy sectors. The Muthoot Pappachan Group has a history of over 50 years in the financial services business. The company is the 2nd largest company under the Muthoot Pappachan Group, in terms of AUM for the FY2023, The financial services companies within the Muthoot Pappachan Group together service 0.87 crore unique customers, as of September 30, 2023. Other than financial services, it has synergies with the operations of MFL. Through its Swarnavarsham gold coins investment scheme, it offers its customers one gram of gold at market value with a payment tenure of 37 weeks or nine months or 18 fortnights. As of September 30, 2023, 255,253 of its customers have participated in its Swarnavarsham gold coins investment scheme, with 54,315 of customers participating during the six months ended September 30, 2023 alone.
Access to diversified sources of capital and effective cost of fund: The company received an upgraded credit rating of A+/Stable by CRISIL on October 19, 2022, which was reaffirmed on January 19, 2023. The company has historically secured, and seek to continue to secure, cost effective funding through a variety of Sources. It also leverages on its loan portfolio in orderto enterinto direct assignment transactions with banks. It also raises long term debt through ECBs. As of September 30, 2023, it has outstanding debt in principal amount of Rs. 6310.49 crore from 65 banks, financial and other lending institutions, including securitization and external commercial borrowings and Rs. 1435.62 crore from 14 NCDs (including market-linked debentures)issuances and one commercial paper.
Expand the geographical footprint and sourcing platform across India: The company’s operations have historically been concentrated in South India. It operates 1,340 branches across 339 districts in 18 states and union territories in India, as of September 30, 2023. It has in recent years expanded into North, East and West India and has a total of 707 branches across North, West and East India as of September 30, 2023, representing 52.76% of its total branches as of September 30, 2023. The company intends to grow its branches in 4 key states: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Punjab, which are underpenetrated or moderately penetrated states. Additionally, it will also evaluate strategic acquisitions on an opportunistic basis as a means of inorganic growth to expand into new geographies.
Leverage the existing branch network to expand the customer base and gross loan portfolio: The company endeavour to leverage its existing branch network to further increase its gross loan portfolio. As part of the growth strategy, it has commenced the offering of additional financing products such as gold loans, individual loans, bicycles and home appliances to customers who have a positive repayment record with them.
Diversifying the Sources of Funds: The company has been able to access cost-effective debt financing and reduce its average cost of borrowings over the years due to its stable credit history and improving credit ratings, diversification of borrowings and enhancement of the scale of its business. As it continues to grow the scale of its operations, it seeks to reduce its dependence on more costly term loans from banks and financial institutions, by issuing NCDs and raising ECBs, in order to optimize its cost of funds and continue to improve its credit ratings.
Muthoot Microfin is a Muthoot Pappachan group Micro Finance arm. It marked steady growth in its business and has kept NPAs under control. However, the company has experienced negative cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities in the past. Along term investor may opt the issue.
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Axis Mutual Fund announced the launch of the 'Axis US Treasury Dynamic Bond ETF Fund of Fund'. Benchmarked against the Bloomberg US Intermediate Treasury TRI, the primary investment objective of the scheme is to provide regular income by investing in units of overseas ETFs where the investment mandate is to invest in US treasury securities across duration. The fund will be managed by Vinayak Jayanath. The new fund offer (NFO) is set to open for subscription on December 12, and will close on December 19. The scheme will predominantly follow an active investment strategy for investments in the overseas mutual funds. The fund is designed to dynamically adjust to market fluctuations, aiming to capitalize on the expected yields and minimize risks. This fund has the potential to be an ideal addition for those looking to diversify their portfolio for international exposure. This dynamic management approach allows the fund to adapt to changing macroeconomic conditions, targeting both capital appreciation and income generation opportunities.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has changed the fundamental attribute of ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund. The scheme may also invest in Silver ETFs in addition to the existing asset classes. ICICI Multi-Asset Fund invests in multiple asset classes like equity, debt, gold ETFs, REITs among others. The changes will be effective from January 22, 2024. The fund house informed this to the unit holders through a notice-cum-addendum. After the proposed changes, the scheme will allocate 65-80% in equity and equity related instruments, 10-35% in debt and money market instruments including units of debt oriented mutual fund schemes, 10-30% in units of Gold ETFs/ units of Silver ETFs/ exchange traded commodity derivatives, 0-10% in preference shares, and 0-10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs. The investment strategy of the scheme is to invest across asset classes, in line with the asset allocation mentioned in SID, with the aim of generating capital appreciation and income for investors. The fund manager will allocate the assets of the scheme predominantly in equity and equity related instruments, debt and money market instruments including units of debt oriented mutual fund schemes, units of Gold ETFs/ units of Silver ETFs/ exchange traded commodity derivatives, preference shares, and units issued by REITs and InvITs.
Investors are placing significant bets on systematic investment plans, or SIPs, with inflows rising to Rs 1.66 lakh crore in the first 11 months of 2023, while Sebi's decision to lower the ticket size to Rs 250 will further boost investment. The total invested in the first 11 months this year is way higher than Rs 1.5 lakh crore through the route in the entire 2022, Rs 1.14 lakh crore in 2021, Rs 97,000 crore in 2020, as per data with theAssociation of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).
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