Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

Global stock markets gained during the week with U.S. markets clocking in second consecutive weekly gains. Investors chased riskier assets on calming concerns of systemic risk in the US banking system after top U.S. regulators expressed confidence that banks were solvent, blaming the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on mismanagement, rather than systemic risks. U.S. Consumer confidence inched up to 104.2 in March from 103.4 in February after two straight monthly declines. European markets too edged up higher after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the euro-area banking sector remains healthy. Recovery in China appears to be strengthening further in the month of March, after stringent pandemic restrictions were dropped and Covid infection waves eased. As per the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index eased to 51.9 from 52.6 in February, but remained above the 50 mark that signals expansion from the previous month. A non-manufacturing gauge of activity in both the services and construction sectors surged to 58.2 in March, the highest level since May 2011 as the effects of local governments measures to promote consumption kicked in” and households showed willingness to spend and travel.

Back at home, domestic stock markets snapped three weeks of decline, gaining the most in about last five months. Indian government announced the fiscal first-half borrowing plan largely in line with previous years, The government plans to sell about 9 trillion rupees of bonds in the six months to September, or 58% of the record 15.43 trillion rupees full-year target. Investors will be watching data on US inflation for clues on the path forward for monetary tightening, as Federal Reserve officials continued to stress the need to lower prices. OPEC+ also meets next week, though changes to production quotas aren’t expected.

On the commodities front, CRB marched northward for second consecutive week on continuous fall in dollar index. Gold prices witnessed strong jump from the low; however silver outperformed gold clearly. Gold prices shot up through March as fears of a banking crisis saw investors pile into traditional safe haven assets, chiefly the yellow metal. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 58500-61000 and 70000-74000 respectively. In energy counter, natural gas saw a pause in fall after many weeks. However inventory of natural gas is still up from five years average and the weather is mild in Northern hemisphere. Crude oil is most likely to trade in a range of 6000- 6400. Any upside will be capped near 215. ISM Manufacturing PMI, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI of US, RBA Interest Rate Decision, Inflation Rate of Mexico, Balance of Trade, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Canada etc are some important triggers for the market this week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Power
  • Power Grid Corporation of India pursuant to its selection as the successful bidder under Tariff Based Competitive Bidding, has on 28 March 2023 acquired “Dharamjaigarh Transmission” (DTL), the Project SPV to establish “Transmission scheme for evacuation of 4.5GW RE injection at Khavda PS under Phase II- Part B”, on build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) basis from the Bid Process Coordinator - PFC Consulting.
  • Adani Transmission (ATL) acquired entire stake of equity shares representing 100% of the total issued, paid-up and subscribed equity share capital of Khavda II-A Transmission from REC Power Development and Consultancy.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Granules India inaugurated and launched its packaging facility through its Granules Consumer Health (GCH) step-down subsidiary which is located in Manassas, Virginia, US. The facility is over 79,000 square feet and is equipped with packaging lines and clean rooms to package and ship prescription and over-the-counter products across the U.S. market. The facility recently received US FDA approval with zero 483 observations.
  • Eris Lifesciences has completed acquisition of 9 dermatology brands from Dr Reddy's Labs for Rs 275 crore. The transaction helps Eris augment and expand the cosmetic dermatology business by way of expansion in the product offerings.
Realty/ Construction
  • GR Infraprojects has emerged as L-1 bidder for construction of 4-lane access controlled greenfield highway in Mahabubabed district, on Hybrid Annuity Mode in Telangana. The project cost is Rs 847.87 crore and the completion period is 730 days from appointed date. Further, the company has also received Letter of Award from NHAI for 4 road projects worth Rs 3,713 crore in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh.
  • Rail Vikas Nigam received Letter of Award (LoA) from Ministry of Railways to manufacture cum maintain Vande Bharat Trainsets, including an upgrade of the government's manufacturing units and trainset depots.
Telecom
  • Bharti Airtel's subsidiary Nxtra Data signed agreement to acquire 5.4 per cent additional stake in Avaada MHAmravati for captive power consumption under electricity laws.
Defence
  • Bharat Dynamics bagged Rs 8,161 crore worth of order from the Ministry of Defence for production and supply of Akash Weapon System to the Indian Army.
  • The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has signed 10 contracts totalling Rs 5,498 crore with state-owned aerospace and defence electronics company Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) for Indian armed forces.
REIT
  • Embassy Office Parks REIT has agreed to acquire Embassy Business Hub, a 1.4 million square feet (‘msf') office property in Bangalore, for a total enterprise value of Rs 334.8 crore ($41 million).
Sugar
  • Shree Renuka Sugars has commenced commercial production of ethanol from its expanded capacity at Athani and Munoli plants.
Engineering
  • HFCL has bagged an order worth Rs 282.61 crore from Gujarat Metro Rail Corporation (GMRC), for Design, Manufacture, Supply, Installation, Testing and Commissioning of Telecommunication Systems for Surat Metro Rail Project Phase-I.
Auto Ancillaries
  • Tube lnvestments of lndia’s subsidiary TI Clean Mobility has received an investment of Rs 266.67 crore from Multiples Private Equity Fund lll and Rs 133.33 crore from State Bank of lndia.

PIVOT SHEET

MACRO ECONOMIC METER

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims rose to 198,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 191,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 196,000.
  • US real gross domestic product shot up by 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 2.7 percent jump. Economists had expected the pace of growth to be unrevised.
  • US pending home sales index climbed by 0.8 percent to 83.2 in February after spiking by 8.1 percent to 82.5 in January. Economists had expected pending home sales to slump by 3.0 percent.
  • Eurozone economic confidence index unexpectedly fell to 99.3 in March from 99.6 in February. The score was forecast to rise to 99.8.
  • China's non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, which takes into account the business conditions in services and construction, unexpectedly advanced to 58.2 in March from 56.3 in February.
  • The total value of retail sales in Japan was up 6.6 percent on year in February, the Ministry of Economy. That beat forecasts for an increase of 5.8 percent and was up from the downwardly revised 5.0 percent gain in January.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LIMITED
CMP: 1733.50
Target Price: 2021
Upside: 17%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1997.00/1630.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 344360.61
  • EPS (Rs.) 71.74
  • P/E Ratio (times) 24.16
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.34
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.07
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The business of the bank increased 17% yoy to Rs 655400 crore at end December 2022. The deposits moved up 13% to Rs 344666 crore, while advances increased 23% to Rs 310734 crore at end December 2022. The credit-deposit ratio eased to 90.16% at end December 2022 from 90.41% a quarter ago.
  • The bank has reported NII growth of 26% to Rs 7207.26 crore in the quarter ended December 2022. Non-interest income increased 35% to Rs 7470.17 crore and net total income moved up 30% to Rs 14677.43 crore in the quarter ended December 2022. NIMs of the bank have improved to 5.47% in Q3FY2023 compared with 5.17% in the previous quarter and 4.62% in the corresponding quarter last year.
  • Segment wise, Corp & Business banking recorded loan growth of 2% to Rs 69987 crore, CV/CE 15% to Rs 25814 crore, Tractor Finance 28% to Rs 12986 crore, Home Loans & LAP 29% to Rs 89112 crore, Consumer Bank WC (Secured) 20% to Rs 28940 crore and Consumer Durables 69% to Rs 14542 crore end December 2022 over December 2021.
  • Provision coverage ratio (PCR) stood at 77.6% in Q3 FY23. Capital adequacy ratio (CRAR), as per Basel III, as at December 31, 2022 was 21.7% and CET I ratio of 20.7% (including unaudited profits).
  • At the consolidated level, the Return on Assets (ROA) (annualized) was 2.76% for Q3FY23 (2.60% for Q3FY22) and the Return on Equity (ROE) (annualized) was 15.04% for Q3FY23 (14.81% for Q3FY22).
  • The bank has added 42 branches and 12 ATMs in the quarter ended December 2022. The branch and ATMs network of the bank stood at 1752 branches and 2814 ATMs at end December 2022.

Risk

  • Slowdown in domestic and international demand for end-markets
  • Regulatory norms

Valuation

Going ahead, focus on strengthening the balance sheet and building a strong deposit franchise, maintaining risk adjusted returns will benefit return ratios of the bank. The Bank has been one of the most consistent performers over the years, driven by best in class return ratios & margin profile. Moreover, the subsidiaries of the bank have recorded healthy growth during the quarter which does not require much capital and the bank continues to see a robust growth in the brand, the franchise and it’s positioning as a consolidated entity. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2021 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/Bvx of 4.25x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.475.55.

P/B Chart

G R INFRAPROJECTS LIMITED
CMP: 1006.45
Target Price: 1238
Upside: 23%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1624.40/930.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 9731.27
  • EPS (Rs.) 138.72
  • P/E Ratio (times) 7.26
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.75
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • GRIL is engaged in road construction in various states across the country with large part of its present order book being from NHAI and Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH). It also undertakes construction of road projects on BOT basis. GRIL owns three emulsion manufacturing plants having an aggregate installed capacity of 84,960 MTPA at Udaipur, Lucknow and Assam.
  • The order book of the company as on 31st December 22, stood at Rs. 14,073.36 crore, out of the total order book 90% shares are of Roads and Highway Development Projects. The company is yet to receive order for the project amount to Rs. 14,100 on the bid it has submitted till December 2022.
  • In the quarter third of FY23, the Company has achieved all the financial closures and till date the Company has 9 operational and 14 under construction projects. In 2023-24 the Government has made provisions for capital expenditure worth Rs. 258,000 crores for Ministry of Road , Transportation, and Highways. This good opportunity for the company to bid and secure orders from these government projects.
  • Recently the company has announced that it has received letter of award amounting to Rs. 3226 crore for various projects. The Company has made strategic partnership with IndiGrid Trust for jointly bidding for Rs. 5,000 crores for power transmission projects.
  • M/s Dibang Power, JV of M/s G R Infraprojects Limited and M/s Patel Engineering Limited, has been emerged as L-1 bidder for the tender invited by NHPC Limited for an amount of Rs. 3637.12 crore. Share of G R Infraprojects is 50% in the joint venture.
  • In Q3FY2023, revenue of the company increased by 12.1% YoY to Rs. 2191.88 crore. The EBITDA margin improved to 27.14% as against 18.72% recorded in the quarter ended December 2021. EBITDA grew by 58% to Rs. 612.23 crore. The PAT increased by 122.5% to Rs. 323.65 crore.

Risk

  • High commodity prices
  • Disruption of operations

Valuation

The company has proven track record of timely project execution over last 25 years. It has successfully diversified into executing railways and metro projects. The company has robust order book of Rs 14,073.36 crore as on 31st December 2022 and strong order pipeline indicating sustained business growth going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1238 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BV of 1.95x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.634.90.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

ICICI BANK LIMITED (ICICIBANK)

The stock closed at Rs 876.90 on 31st March, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 669.95 on 17thJune, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 958.20 on 30th November, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 846.

Stock has been consolidating in broader range of 820-875 levels since last two months, as prices can be seen fluctuating around its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts. Last week stock has given a consolidation breakout above the key resistance levels of 875 with larger volumes. Alongside fresh breakout has been observed above the neckline of the Inverted head & shoulder pattern, visible on daily charts. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 875-877 levels for the upside target of 970-975 levels with SL below 815 levels.

Manappuram Finance Limited (MANAPPURAM)

The stock closed at Rs 123.70 on 31st March, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 81.50 on 20th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.126.15 on 07th April, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 113.85.

After taking support, near 100 rupee level in month of February ‘23 stock made a strong comeback, as prices seen recovering towards 115 levels, in short span of time. The recovery has been seen observed with a move above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts. At current juncture stock can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern. Additionally fresh breakout has been observed on to the charts above the Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 120-124 levels for the upside target of 138-142 levels with SL below 108 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

On the last week of the financial year, broader indices closed in green. Buying interest was seen in IT and Pharma sector whereas on the other hand, Consumer Durable and Oil & gas remain under pressure. From the derivative front, the highest open interest concentration in calls was seen at 17700 strike, shifting from 17500 strike while on the put side highest open interest concentration was held at 17000 followed by 17300 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 12.45% while that for put options closed at 13.08%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 13.63%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.18 lower than the previous week. From the technical front, Nifty is still trading below its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts, whereas Bank Nifty managed to close above its 200 days exponential moving average. Nifty is trading above its recent resistance zone of 17050-17200 which will act now as strong support for the upcoming session whereas on the upside Nifty is expected to test the resistance area of 17500-17650 zone. We expect that Banking stocks are likely to outperform the market with biasness likely to remain in favour of bulls.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top Long Buildup

Top Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 29th March, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric NCDEX Apr futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on increased buying at lower level. Stockists and exporters are showing good interest at prevailing levels and covering their stocks in wake bleak production outlook. Arrivals are in full swing in Maharashtra and Telangana but reported lower as compared to last year. About 60.5 thousand tonnes of arrivals were reported at major APMC yards across India in Mar’23 as compared to 121 thousand tonnes of previous year. Demand from spice millers have increased with improved export enquires for premium quality of turmeric in that will support the firmness in prices. Turmeric Apr contract is expected to find support near 6500 and will move gradually towards 7400 in near term.

Jeera NCDEX Apr futures are likely to trade higher due to active buying by local millers. Reports of crop damage in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to unseasonal rainfall have sparked the fear of downward revision in crop number. Overall production in Gujarat is likely to be down due to lower acreages and yield losses. Seasonal export demand of jeera is expected to pick up with increased supply of good quality of produce in the market. In wake of crop damage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, overall production is likely to be revised down. Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholder has projected total production is estimated to increase by 28% Y-o-Y to 700 thousand tonnes in year 2023. Prices are likely to hold support near 33000 and will move towards 37000.

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr prices likely to trade on mixed to higher as some short covering can be seen in fear of yield losses due to unseasonal rainfall in northern part of India. However, overall production of Dhaniya is estimated to be higher by 18%-20% that will cap the excessive gains in prices in near future. Demand has been subdued as major buyers and spices millers are avoiding bulk buying with rising supplies of new arrivals in major mandies. Dhaniya exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 10.53 percent at 36,823.43 tonnes as compared to 41,153.95 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. Dhaniya NCDEX Apr Prices are likely to trade in range of 6500- 7000 levels.

BULLIONS

Gold prices rebounded and posted positive returns, as a slightly softer dollar helped counter risk appetite fuelled by easing concerns about the global banking system. Gold posted its best quarter in more than two years, gaining over $160 per troy ounce, this quarter's largest gain since COVID-19. The weaker dollar and lower bond yields drove demand for the precious metal, while investors kept their eyes peeled for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move. Investors will be scanning the data for clues about the path of the U.S. central bank's monetary policy. Three Fed officials kept the door open to more rate hikes aimed at lowering high levels of inflation, with two noting banking sector problems could generate enough headwinds on the economy to help cool price pressures faster than expected. Markets see a 52.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold/Silver ratio presently trading above the 85.0 which means that silver is undervalued relative to Gold. Most of the time, the Gold/Silver Ratio has been in a range between 45 and 85. On Comex Gold prices hovering near resistance zone of $1980 break above the $1985 will give a push towards $2000 followed by $2040 whereas the short term support holds near $1940. Silver on Comex may continue to trade higher and may take support near $21.400 and could face resistance near $24.700. Ahead in the week gold prices may continue to trade higher and the possible trading range would be 57000-62000. Silver on MCX may continue to trade with bullish bias and may take support near 69000 and could face resistance near 74500.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil posted positive returns as supported by lower U.S. crude stockpiles and a halt to exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region, which offset pressure from a smaller-than-expected cut to Russian supplies. Producers have shut in or reduced output at several oilfields in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq following a halt to the northern export pipeline, company statements showed. More outages are on the horizon. Iraq was forced to halt around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports, or half a percent of global oil supply, from the Kurdistan region (KRI) on Saturday through a pipeline that runs from its northern Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The 300,000 bpd production decline compared with targeted cuts of 500,000 bpd, or about 5% of Russian output. Meanwhile, there is expectation that OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal on reduced oil output at a meeting on Monday. PetroChina said that China's refined fuel consumption this year is likely to grow 3% from 2019 pre-COVID levels, state energy giant. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade higher and the possible trading range would be 5700-6500. Natural gas prices witness a sharp decline and posted a 2- 1/2 year nearest-futures low as normally mild weather across the northern hemisphere erodes heating demand for nat-gas. This winter's warm temperatures have caused rising nat-gas inventories in Europe and the U.S. Gas storage across Europe was 56% full as of Mar 27, far above the 5-year seasonal average of 34% for this time of year. Ahead in the week prices likely to witness selling pressure and the possible trading range would be 150-200.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in the range with bullish bias due to improvement in demand from top consumer China. China's removal of its COVID-19 restrictions last December raised hopes that demand for base metals will improve as the country revived its economic activities. Economic activity in China picked up in the first three months of 2023 as consumption and infrastructure investment drove recovery from pandemic disruption despite challenges of weak global demand and a downturn in the property sector. China's manufacturing activity rose in March at a slower pace compared with a recordbreaking expansion in February, but still exceeded expectations by economists in a Reuters poll. Copper may trade in the range of 765-800. China's top copper smelters agreed on a lower guide price for treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate processing in the second quarter of 2023, sources said. Zinc can trade in the range of 250-270. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. Lead can move in the range of 178-187. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200- 215. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 2.6% to 382,400 tonnes at the end of February from 392,500 tonnes at the end of January, Marubeni Corp said. Steel long (Apr) is likely to trade in the range of 47500- 50000 on NCDEX with bullish bias due to high input costs, primarily iron ore and coking coal, and the ongoing geopolitical crisis.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton/Kapas prices are expected to trade down due to increase supplies in local market. Arrivals have surged up sharply in recent weeks. Overall production has been higher by 5%-8% Y-o-Y wherein total arrivals has been down by more than 40% Y-o-Y that indicates there is huge stocks left with farmers. Despite an increase in production compared to last year, exports has been down due to uncompetitive Indian prices and export will reach historic lows. From October 2022 to February 2023, our cotton exports were only about 8 lakh bales, the lowest in recent years. Higher production outlook of cotton and heavier stocks with farmers is likely to pull down the prices further. Kapas Apr NCDEX prices are likely to trade in range of 1550-1650. MCX cotton is likely to trade in range of 60000-64000

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Apr futures are likely to trade higher due limited availability in the market. Ginning activities has been down due to limited export demand of cotton that has impacted cotton seed production badly in year 2022-23. Availability of green fodder is likely to be dropped with rising temperature in northern part of India that led to rise in demand in cattle feed industry in Mar. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2600- 3000.

Guar seed Apr futures are expected to trade higher due to improved buying activities after recent fall in prices. Milling demand of guar seed has increased that will keep prices elevated in near term. The rise in exports of guar split from India is also supporting the counter. India’s guar split exports increased in Feb ’2023 by 19% to 4,420 tonnes compared to 3,711 tonnes in previous month. Milling demand of guar seed has been increased due to expected rise in crude oil production that has boosted the export prospects of gum. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5600-6000 in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11000-13500 levels.

Mentha oil Apr contract is likely to trade higher as some short covering can be seen on weaker production outlook for upcoming season. Sowing has started in UP and sowing numbers are lower as compared to last year due to adverse weather condition. However, recent rainfall in northern region has been helpful for sowing activities that will cap the major gains. Increased imports of menthol will also add pressure on prices. Prices are likely to trade in range of 980- 1050.

Castor seed Apr prices are expected to trade sideways to lower due to adequate supplies in the market. Daily arrivals have increased wherein crushing demand is still poor due to sluggish export of castor oil. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6100-6900.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 791.30
M*.Low: 739.15

It closed at Rs. 779.55 on 30th Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 776.70. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.330. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 780 for a target of Rs. 756 with the stop loss of 792.

NATURAL GAS MINI MCX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 259.30
M*.Low: 174.20

It closed at Rs. 175.20 on 30th Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 228.54. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.045. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 175 for a target of Rs. 200 with the stop loss of 162.

GUARGUM NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 13999.00
M*.Low: 11200.00

It closed at Rs. 11752.00 on 30th Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 12194.92. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.342. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 12000 for a target of Rs. 11400 with the stop loss of 12300.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The government plans to sell about 9 trillion rupees ($109 billion) of bonds in the six months to September, or 58% of the record 15.43 trillion rupees full-year target.
  • The government came out with Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2023 which seeks to boost the country’s exports to USD 2 trillion by 2030 by shifting from incentives to remission and entitlement based regime.
  • The government has set a disinvestment target of Rs 51,000 crore for fiscal 2023-24.
  • xThe Centre has allocated 22 lakh tonnes as the monthly sugar quota for sales in domestic market during April, which is same as last month.
  • Soyabean Oil Processors Association of India (SOPA) has urged the Centre to consider raising the import duties on all oils by at least 20 per cent.
  • Indian coking coal imports saw a near 9 per cent rise during the April–February period, with steel mills sourcing from nations such as Indonesia, Russia, US, Mozambique and Canada.
  • The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has given its approval for the Minimum Support Price for Raw Jute at Rs.5050/- per quintal for 2023-24 season.
  • According to the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, exports of agricultural and processed food products rose by 9% to $ 23.1 billion during the first 11 months of the current fiscal (2022-23) compared to the same period last year.
  • 9. Russia Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil supplies to India jumped 22-fold last year.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB marched northward for second consecutive week on continuous fall in dollar index. Gold prices witnessed strong jump from the low; however silver outperformed gold clearly. Gold prices were few points shy away from $2,000 level after wild swings owing to safe haven demand in the wake of a potential banking crisis put the yellow metal on course for a sharp rise in the first quarter. Silver crossed the mark of 72000 on MCX and $24 on COMEX. In energy counter, natural gas saw a pause in fall after many weeks. Crude oil prices surged high on improved data from China. Utilities pulled 47 billion cubic of natural gas from storage for heating and electricity generation last week, lower than the 54 bcf anticipated by industry analysts. The current U.S. gas inventory was 31% higher from the balance at the same time a year ago and 21% up versus the five-year average for storage, as per EIA. Crude prices jumped as much as 5% Monday as disruption of half a million barrels a day of Kurdish supply, nuclear war talk by Russia’s Vladmir Putin and assurances about the crisis-hit U.S. banking sector helped boost risk-on appetite in oil. Even with Monday’s gains, both WTI and Brent stand to lose almost 10% each at the close of the first quarter. U.S. crude stockpiles on their own fell by 7.489 million barrels during the week ended March 24. Historical data maintained by the EIA showed it to be the largest U.S. crude draw in a week since late November. The draw also marks a reversal from almost three straight months of crude builds since December that resulted in an additional supply of 60M barrels. Base metals prices appreciated too; except lead. Uneven recovery in China halted the upside. While service sector activity surged more than expected to a 15-year high, softening growth in the manufacturing sector pointed to weaker demand for commodities.

Castor couldn’t face the resistance of 6330 and fell down. Cotton oil seeds cake saw strong rebound. Guar was in a range with upside bias. India’s guar split exports increased in Feb ’2023 by 19% to 4,420 tonnes compared to 3,711 tonnes in previous month. Milling demand of guar seed has been increased due to expected rise in crude oil production that has boosted the export prospects of gum. In spices, jeera continued to move up for forth week whereas turmeric and dhaniya were down due to surging arrival pressure at major trading centers. Jeera prices surged due to reports of crop damage in Gujarat. Recent Unseasonal rainfall in Gujarat has hampered the yield of jeera as harvesting is yet to pick up in Kutchh region of Gujarat. Overall production of turmeric is estimated be to fallen by 5%-8% due to lower acreages in Maharashtra and AP. Mentha oil saw strong short covering.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Spice Export………losing momentum on global slowdown

India is the world's leading spice producer, exporter and consumer. Despite the COVID-19 Pandemic, export volume of spices from India has grown more than three times over the decade. As per the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), India exported $ 4.1 billion worth of spices in FY 2021-22.The Spice Board had aggressively taken a lead in strengthening and promoting the Indian- International spice trade for the larger benefits of the spice community, more so during the pandemic time. But the global slowdown is expected to affect India's export of spices. The shipments during the April-November period of the current fiscal are down by 6.5 per cent in dollar terms compared with corresponding period in the previous year.

Exporting pattern…… spreading flavor world wide

  • A s per the data of Spice Board, India’s total spice exports, with a volume of 15,31,154 tons valued Rs.30,576 crore during 2021-22.
  • The Indian spice industry passed the $4-billion mark consecutively during the last two years 2020-21 and 2021-22. During 2022-23, there has been an increased demand for certain spices, especially seed spices including cumin, fenugreek, ajwain seed, aniseed, mustard, etc.
  • Chilli, cumin, turmeric, coriander and ginger were the top five most-exported spices accounted for more than 70 per cent of the total volume of spice exports.
  • Chilli retained its top position with a shipment of 557,168 tonnes, fetching ₹ 858,188.59 lakh but 14% lower than 2020-21 in volume term.
  • Cumin followed next with 216,996 tonnes valued at ₹ 334,433.87lakh. Jeera's export demand from India has been increasing slowly from Africana and Middle East countries. However, exports of jeera for 2021-22 are down by 27% Y/Y from 298,423 ton exported in 2020-21 but expected improve in coming months.
  • During the pandemic, with highest immunity boosting properties, turmeric was in great demand. Turmeric registered a remarkable growth of 34 per cent in quantity by shipping 183,868.38 tonnes valued at ₹ 172,265.24 lakh globally. However, In the of FY 2021/22, turmeric exports down 16% to 183,868 tons Vs last year but still at par with 5-year average.
  • Spices from the India are mostly exported to industrialized nations such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, other European countries, Japan, and Canada. These nations have strict food rules and regulations in place to guarantee that goods, including spices, are safe, whole and produced in sanitary and hygienic settings.
  • Globally, India holds first place in chilli, cumin, and turmeric exports. In FY 2022, China and the US formed a substantial market for India’s overall spices. While China is India’s top importer of chilli, cumin, and various mint products, the US primarily imports curry powders and pastes, spice oils, and oleoresins.
  • India exports turmeric and ginger to Bangladesh and some core spices like small cardamom to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These regions collectively comprise over 50% of India.
  • UAE is India's 4th largest export destination for spices. Therefore, the Indian spice sector views Dubai as a leading consumer of spices, but also as a re-export hub, where Indian spices are reexported to other regions of the world.
  • China has formally clarified the pesticides and chemicals, which can be used for export of cumin to that country. China has also officially informed the maximum residue limit ( MRL ) for such chemicals and pesticides used in cumin.
  • Jeera's export demand from India has been increasing slowly from Africana and Middle East countries.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee stayed firm on the last week of the current financial year to hit as high as 82.10 versus the dollar on spot. Admittedly broad weakness in the dollar led to a rise in the rupee after the Dollar Index was nearing its February low of 101.90. However, the surge in the oil prices this week may cap the upside in the rupee at lower levels in the coming days. On the global front, the euro hit one week high against the dollar after German monthly inflation edged down in March due to lower energy prices but recorded above than expected which led to a divergence between Fed and ECB to some extent. Technically both EURUSD and EURINR may face some selling pressure around 1.10 as well as 90.00 respectively next week. On the other hand, the pound recorded its biggest monthly gain against the dollar in the last five months backed by the ease of concerns over the banking system in the UK. Next week we may see follow-up buying in the pound continue. Key technical resistance for the GBPINR still stays around 102.30 - 102.50 which needs to break out for a convincing rally in the coming days.

USDINR (MAR)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.51 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.84.

One can buy near 82.00 for the target of 82.90 with the stop loss of 81.60.

GBPINR (MAR)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 100.52 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 102.75 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 100.52. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.36.

One can sell near 102.00 for the target of 101.00 with the stop loss of 102.50.

EURINR (MAR) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 88.60 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 90.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 88.60. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.11.

One can buy near 89.50 for the target of 90.50 with the stop loss of 89.00.

JPYINR (MAR) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 61.24 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 63.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 62.28. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.22.

One can sell near 62.40 for the target of 61.40 with the stop loss of 62.90.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

Updater Services files IPO papers with Sebi; plans to raise Rs 400 cr through fresh issue of shares

Integrated facilities management Updater Services Ltd (UDS) has filed preliminary papers with capital market regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering. The Initial Public Offering (IPO) will comprise fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 400 crore and an Offer For Sale (OFS) of up to 1.33 crore equity shares by a promoter and existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus. Those who will be selling shares in the OFS are Tangi Facility Solutions Private Ltd, India Business Excellence Fund-II and India Business Excellence Fund IIA. Also, the company may consider a pre-IPO placement aggregating up to Rs 80 crore. If such a placement is completed, the fresh issue size will be reduced.

Virat Kohli-backed Go Digit General Insurance refiles draft papers with SEBI

Canada's Fairfax and cricketer Virat Kohli-backed Go Digit General Insurance Ltd has refiled its draft papers with the Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds via an initial public offering (IPO). The market regulator had in February returned the draft papers. The Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) was returned in terms of SEBI’s Issuance of Capital and Disclosure Requirements rules, which exempts rights granted under the employee stock option plan (ESOP) to subsist at the time of filing the draft prospectus, but does not similarly exempt employee stock appreciation rights, the company has said.

IPO filings drop by over 50% in FY23 amid unfavourable market conditions

The filing of draft red herring prospectuses more than halved in FY23 as concerns over high valuations, geopolitical tension and rising interest rates dampened sentiment for equities. Only 66 companies submitted offer documents to the Securities and Exchange Board of India, down 54 percent from 144 draft papers filed during FY22, according to data from Prime Database. A total of 34 companies came out with Rs 51,482 crore of initial public offerings and listed on the exchanges so far in FY23. This compared with 53 companies that listed after Rs 1.11 lakh crore of IPOs during FY22. Companies typically raise money through share sales when the mood in the secondary market is upbeat. However, the current market conditions are far from ideal and many companies withdrew their IPO papers as they were not hopeful of getting a good price for their shares. The benchmark BSE Sensex has advanced 0.7 percent in the past year.

SPC Life Science files draft papers with SEBI to raise funds via IPO

SPC Life Science Ltd has submitted preliminary documents to the Securities Exchange Board of India to gather funds through an initial public offering. The company plans to raise up to Rs 300 crore through a fresh issue of shares and an offer for sale of up to 8.94 million shares by its current promoter, Snehal Ravjibhai Patel. Presently, Patel holds a 98.18 percent stake in the company. The funds raised from the fresh issue, amounting to Rs 55 crore, will be utilized for the purpose of debt repayment, while Rs 40 crore will be allocated for meeting the company's working capital requirements.

JG Chemicals gets Sebi green light to raise funds through listing

JG Chemicals Ltd, a Kolkata-based manufacturer of zinc oxide, has received the final go-ahead from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). In January 2023, JG Chemicals Ltd submitted draft papers to the markets watchdog to raise funds through a fresh issue of Rs 202.50 crore, along with an offer-for-sale of up to 5.70 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. Vision Projects and Finvest Pvt Ltd plans to sell up to 3.64 million shares, Jayanti Commercial Ltd to 1.4 lakh shares, Suresh Kumar Jhunjhunwala (HUF) 1.27 million shares, and Anirudh Jhunjhunwalal (HUF) 6.5 lakh shares through the OFS.

IPO TRACKER

19

FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

SEBI allows PE funds as MF sponsor, declutters trustee role, brings cheer to debt funds

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on March 29 said it has allowed private equity funds to sponsor Mutual Fund schemes, and has also permitted the set-up of self-sponsored asset management companies (AMCs). The decision to allow Private Equity (PE) funds as a mutual fund's sponsor were among many key decision that were taken at the SEBI board meeting on March 29, where the regulator gave its nod to key overhauls

Sebi gives mutual fund holders till Sept 30 to furnish their nominations

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has extended the last date for furnishing nominations for mutual fund investments from March 31 to September 30. The capital market regulator had in June 2022 mandated nominations or opting out of nominations for all the existing individuals holding mutual fund units either solely or jointly by March 31, 2023, failing which the folios would be frozen for debits.

SEBI eases time limit for disclosure of NAVs of overseas funds

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has eased the timeline for the disclosure of net asset value (NAV) of mutual fund schemes investing in overseas markets. An NAV represents the value of a unit in the scheme and is the main performance indicator for a mutual fund. Mutual funds are mandated to disclose the NAVs of all schemes within a given outer time limit.

SEBI allows mutual funds to launch multiple ESG-based schemes

The Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the financial market regulator, has announced a slew of measures to boost ESG factor-based investing in India through mutual funds. Mutual fund houses henceforth, can launch more than one scheme, the investment mandate of which is governed by ESG factors. ESG ― Environmental, Social and Governance ― factors-based investing is catching up in all parts of the world. Indian policymakers are also incentivising sustainable investing. In order to address the risk of mis-selling and greenwashing, to enhance stewardship reporting requirements, and to promote ESG investing SEBI has made some key announcements today, which are expected to impact mutual funds.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 29/03/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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