In the week gone by, global stock markets ended the weak on a volatile note as investors digested a mixed bag of corporate earnings. Meanwhile, mixed signals are emerging from the US, Europe, and Chinese economic data. Markets were also focused on a bevy of Fed officials speaking at the end of the week ahead of the central bank's meeting early next month, when investors widely expect a 25 basis point hike. Even Investors were looking for signs in corporate results that inflation may be driving up costs or hurting consumer spending, amid fears the economy may be on the cusp of a downturn. There is much more macro-level uncertainty surrounding this earnings season than in the recent past. Investors will also be looking at the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing and services sectors to get insight into the economy. The recent released minutes of the European Central Bank's meeting in March suggest there is a growing divide within the Governing Council. A 50bp rate hike is still on the table next month but the split among members argues in favour of a 25bp compromise. ECB President Christine Lagarde has also said that - Euro zone inflation is too high and the European Central Bank's monetary policy "still has a bit of way to go" to bring back inflation towards its 2% goal. China's gross domestic product expanded by 4.5% in the first quarter, topping estimates for 4% and accelerating from the prior quarter's 2.9% growth. While the latest figure falls short of Beijing's target for 5% fullyear growth, the economy is expected to pick up further as it continues to rebound after zero-COVID policies were lifted last year.
Back at home, following mixed cues from the global markets and concern over Q4 results, domestic market looked cautious. Now Investors await more of financial results from India Inc for domestic cues. Actually, the management commentary from India's top two IT services companies namely Infosys and TCS has cautioned about customer sentiment across BFSI, technology services, and other verticals, particularly in the US. Going forward, investors will continue to analyse the earnings outcome of the March quarter and closely follow the management commentary for further cues. Besides, the global and domestic factors will continue to dictate the trend of the market.
On the commodity market front, CRB saw a pause after a four week continuous rally after a pause in the fall of dollar index. Crude prices closed the week down over 6%, snapping four straight positive weeks. Recent losses also saw oil prices largely reverse strong gains made on the back of an unexpected supply cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries earlier in April. It can trade in a range of 6100-6600 level. Bullion may trade in a range on mixed trigger now. Gold and silver can travel in a slim spread of 59000-61000 and 74000-78000 levels respectively. Signs of overheated inflation in Europe and the UK dialed up expectations that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will continue to hike interest rates, while a slew of Federal Reserve officials called for more rate hikes to curb relatively high inflation. It will cap the upside of gold now. Ifo Business Climate, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, GDP Growth Rate, Inflation Rate and GfK Consumer Confidence of Germany, CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final of US, Inflation Rate of Australia, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Inflation Rate of France, GDP Growth Rate of Euro area, Mexico and Italy etc. are some data, which will stimulate volatility in commodity trade.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has strong balance sheet with zero debt and cash surplus. The recent capex was also funded by the internal accruals. Going forward, the business of company is expected to sustain growth momentum on the back of new capacity addition, new product launches and customer acquisition. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.3174 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on three year average P/BV of 7.9x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.401.83.
The company has strong balance sheet and the management of the company expects decent visibility of consumer sales in the domestic market and innovative value-added products, price hike & softening of input cost. Current global economic situation has led to demand headwinds especially in Australia and USA. The firm will optimize product innovation and cost through leveraging Indian and Global operations and manufacturing facilities and agile supply chain opportunities. Moreover, increasing temperature, a strong brand and continuous innovation would drive the growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1121 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 3 yrs average P/BV of 9.24x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.121.36.
The stock closed at Rs 230 on 21st April, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs 164.65 on 12th May, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.263.40 on 09th November, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 216.
After touching its 52 week high of 263.40 level, the stock has witnessed a correction phase, over the months and seen sliding back towards 210 levels. The correction in prices was observed with formation of lower top pattern on daily charts. However the stock managed to take support at its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts and once again caught an upside momentum. Last week, the stock has given a breakout above the falling trend line of downward sloping channel. Additionally fresh breakout has also been observed above “Inverted Head & Shoulder” pattern, visible on shorter time frame. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 225-230 levels for the upside target of 252-256 levels with SL below 210 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 4308.30 on 21st April, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs 3460 on 06th May, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.4337 on 21st April, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 3787.
The stock has been consistently moving up and can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern. Last week, the stock made its 52 week high of 4337 level. On weekly charts, the stock has already given a fresh breakout above “Cup & Handle” pattern. The bullish momentum is likely to continue in upcoming sessions as well as rising volumes with rise in price suggests strength in current trend. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 4250-4300 levels for the upside target of 4700-4750 levels with SL below 4000 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets took a pause last week, after witnessing three week of consecutive gains and traders were seen booking profits at higher levels. The lackluster trend continued to prevail as investors stayed cautious due to concerns over further rate hikes in the US and European nations and ensuing global economic slowdown. Investors are also concerned that any further disappointment in corporate earnings from blue chip companies could worsen the sentiment going ahead. From the derivative front, option writers remained active in both calls & puts strikes in the absence of any fresh triggers. The Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.11% while that for put options closed at 12.57%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 11.94%. PCR OI for the week closed at 0.88 lower than the previous week indicates more call writing than put. Technically, both the indices can be seen holding well above its all-important moving averages as bias may remain in favor of bulls. In upcoming sessions, we expect markets to trade in sideways range with Nifty having strong support zone in the range of 17500-17400, while on the higher side, 17800-17900 zone is likely to protect any sharp upside in prices.
|
|
|
|
|
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a weaker note due to sluggish demand. Millers and stockists are in wait and watch mood in the wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Arrival volume has surged up in Maharashtra and expected to pick up further that will cap the excessive gains in the prices. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Millers are offloading stocks by mixing old stocks with new one. However, improved export enquires and lower production estimates may cap the excessive downfall. Overall production is estimated to be down by 7%-10% Y-o-Y due to fall in area in Maharashtra. Turmeric May contract is expected to find support near 6300 and will honor the resistance of 7000 level in near term.
Jeera prices remained volatile throughout the week kept bias on upside. Prices are trading on bullish note due to weaker supply outlook in Gujarat and Rajasthan. There are report of yield losses and delayed harvest in Gujarat due to unseasonal rainfall in Mar’23 that prompting stockists and millers to cover their inventory at every dip in prices. However, seasonal arrivals are expected to increase in coming week that may lead to some profit booking in Jeera counter. Export demand is expected to pick up due to weaker supply outlook in global market that will support the firmness in prices. NCDEX has imposed Event based Additional Surveillance Margin on running active contract of jeera that will lead to profit booking in jeera counter. However, major trend is still bullish. Jeera NCDEX May contract is likely to trade in range of 38500-45000.
Dhaniya prices are expected to slip further on slower buying at major trading centers. Stockist and millers are not showing much interest in bulk buying in wake of huge supply ahead. Seasonal arrivals are expected to pick up further that will keep prices under pressure. Overall, production of dhaniya is likely to be higher by 8%-10% Y-o-Y due to sharp rise in acreages. However, increased export enquires are likely to cap the excessive losses. Dhaniya NCDEX May futures are likely to trade in range of 6150- 7200 levels.
Bullion counter witnessed some volatility in the minor range and was influenced by a range of factors such as the on-going COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and changes in the value of US dollar. The soft U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause its tightening cycle after delivering one more rate hike next month. Factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region plunged to the lowest in nearly three years in April. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that the U.S. central bank still has more interest rate increase ahead of it, but noted the aggressive move to boost the borrowing cost over the last year to quash high inflation is nearing its end. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in an 82.1% chance of a 25 basispoint hike in May, which underpinned the dollar and made bullion less affordable for overseas buyers. The greenback eyed its first weekly gain in over a month. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Gold silver ratio reads below 80 which mean silver is undervalued relative to Gold. Most of the time, the Gold/Silver Ratio has been in a range between 45 and 85 levels. On COMEX, Gold prices are facing strong resistance near $2050, as long as prices sustain below the levels, it remains sell on rise market. The short term support for gold holds near $1940. Silver on COMEX looks bullish and prices may trade in the wider range of $23.600-$26.900. Ahead in the week, gold prices on MCX may witness both side movements where it may take support near 59500 level and face resistance near 61500 level whereas silver may trade in the range of 72000-78000 levels.
Crude oil posted sharp fall in the week, erasing most of the OPEC-driven rally amid lingering concerns about higher interest rates, slowing global growth and softening energy demand. The US Federal Reserve will likely deliver another 25 basis point rate hike in May, while the European Central Bank is expected to raise borrowing costs at least two more times this year. A key Fed report also signalled that the US economy has stalled in recent weeks, weighing on risk assets and energy demand prospects. Moreover, the market shrugged off comments from a US official who said that the government could start to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the third quarter. Meanwhile, investors are cautious as OPEC+ is set to reduce output next month, with expectations of a rebound in Chinese demand also supporting oil prices. The U.S. Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, also dropped to its lowest level since November 2020 overnight and it is signalling a recession starting mid-2023. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness selling and the possible trading range would be 5980-6600 levels. Natural gas prices witnessed some positive rally on forecasts for colder-than-usual U.S. weather that will boost heating demand. The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories rose +75 bcf, above expectations of +70 bcf. That pushed total U.S. nat-gas stockpiles to 1.930 tcf, +20.5% above the 5- year average for this time of year. Nat-gas prices have fallen sharply over the past three months and posted a 2-1/2 year nearest-futures low as abnormally mild weather across the northern hemisphere this past winter eroded heating demand for nat-gas. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade in the range of 165-195 levels.
Base metals may trade in southward direction on uncertainty over further U.S. rate hikes and a sluggish recovery of demand in China. Weak U.S. economic data of labour market, retail sales and manufacturing activity raised fears about a recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. However, recordlow inventories, supply constraints and expected demand growth in the medium term will likely deliver sustained price volatility. Copper may trade in the range of 750-775 levels. China's lack of copper import demand disappointed a market that had high expectations of the country's reopening after last year's COVID curbs. China imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-onyear and the lowest monthly intake since October. First-quarter imports of 1.3 million tonnes were 13% off last year's pace. The Yangshan copper premium, which indicates the demand for imported copper into top consumer China, was at $27.50 a tonne on Wednesday, down 45% from nearly five weeks ago, SMM data on Refinitiv Eikon showed. Zinc can trade with bearish bias and fell to 237 with resistance of 255. LME inventories of zinc have more than tripled over the past two months. Lead can move in the range of 178-187. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-220 levels with bullish bias. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 3.1% to 370,700 tonnes at the end of March from 382,400 tonnes at the end of February, Marubeni Corp said. Steel long (May) is likely to trade in the range of 47500-49500 levels on NCDEX. Demand for steel worldwide will witness a 2.3 per cent growth in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2024, the World Steel Association said.
Cotton prices are expected to trade mixed to higher on slower pace of arrivals. The Cotton Association of India has further reduced its estimates of India’s cotton production by 10 lakh bales to 303 lakh bales for the year 2022- 23. CAI has earlier estimated the Indian cotton production to be 344 lakh bales for year 2022-23. Total arrivals have been down by more than 40% Y-o-Y so far in year 2022-23. Higher, better sowing prospects for upcoming season supported by forecast of normal monsoon rainfall will cap the excessive gains. MCX cotton June Cotton prices are likely to trade in range of 62500-65000 wherein Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1600-1680.
Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX May futures are likely to trade higher as prices are expected to witness short covering in wake of weaker supply outlook. Downward revision in cotton production is likely to keep cotton seed production down as well. However, gains will be limited as seasonal demand of cotton seed oil cake is likely to remain poor in wake of forecast of normal monsoon rainfall. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2600- 2800.
Guar Seed and Guar Gum futures are expected to trade down on better sowing prospects supported by forecast of normal monsoon rainfall in year 2023. Weakness in crude oil prices and tepid export enquires also weighed on the guar counter. Guar gum /Guar seed ratio has corrected from 2.20 to 2.0 in last 4 months. In wake of bleak demand prospects of gum, gum prices are expected fall further that may pull down the guar gum/guar seed ratio up to 1.7. Guar seed prices may find support near 5400 wherein 6000 is the resistance. Similarly, Guar gum is expected to slip towards 10500 levels with resistance of 13000.
Mentha oil May contract is likely to trade on mixed note as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook. Prices are expected to face strong support near 960 level and may witnessed recovery from those levels. Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the firmness in prices. However, increased imports of menthol will cap the gains. Prices are likely to hold support near 940 and will honor the resistance of 1000.
Castor seed prices are expected to trade on weaker note following muted demand in local market. Daily arrivals have improved wherein demand has been subdued at this level. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Y-o-Y. Castor oil export has dropped 14% Y-o -Y to 490 thousand tonnes during the time period of Apr’22-Jan’23. Castor seed prices have dropped by 13% in last five months and likely to hold the support of 6000 wherein 6600 is the near term resistance.
It closed at Rs. 248.05 on 20th Apr 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 253.02. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.132. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs. 252 for a target of Rs. 240 with the stop loss of 258.
It closed at Rs. 185.30 on 20th Apr 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 184.53. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.651. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs. 187 for a target of Rs. 180 with the stop loss of 190.
It closed at Rs. 6245.00 on 20th Apr 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6275.11. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.530. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy above Rs. 6300 for a target of Rs. 6800 with the stop loss of 6050.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
CRB saw a pause after a four week continuous rally after a pause in the fall of dollar index; subsequent to a six week nonstop drop. The dollar strengthened, lifted by rising Treasury yields. The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which are sensitive to expectations for the U.S. central bank's monetary policy, rose 7 basis points to 4.269% after hitting a one-month high of 4.286%. Bullion witnessed indecisive move on mix signals. Gold prices moved slight on Friday, but stuck to key levels as a string of weak economic readings brewed concerns over slowing growth and Fed into safe haven demand for the yellow metal. Natural gas managed to see second week upside. Natural gas futures returned to positive territory, after a three-day rally on expectations for wintry-like conditions through early May — which weather forecasters eventually tamped down by citing warmer conditions. WTI crude faced the resistance of $82.36 and saw a fall from there; MCX crude oil prices mirrored the trend and closed below 6400 level. Oil prices slid to their lowest level since late March on Thursday dragged lower by fears a possible recession could dent fuel demand and after a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories. Gasoline inventories jumped unexpectedly last week by 1.3 million barrels to 223.5 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report on Wednesday. Base metals noticed steep decline except aluminum despite better than expected data China. Weaker economic numbers dent the sentiments. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, indicating the labor market was slowing after a year of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and fanning concerns about a slowdown in fuel demand. A softer-than-expected reading on regional U.S. manufacturing, coupled with signs of a cooling labor market, fed into fears that economic growth in the world’s largest oil consumer was cooling. Signs of economic gloom largely offset positive signals from China, where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year.
Castor saw marginal gain. Jeera prices traded on bullish note due to weaker supply outlook in Gujarat and Rajasthan. There are report of yield losses and delayed harvest in Gujarat due to unseasonal rainfall in Mar’23 that prompting stockists and millers to cover their inventory at every dip in prices. Turmeric saw further fall due to muted demand in local market. Millers and stockists are in wait and watch mood in the wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Guar counter was down on better sowing prospects supported by forecast of normal monsoon rainfall in year 2023.
Isabgol is considered by doctors, the best remedy for any kind of constipation and stomach complaints. But now commodity experts believe that Isabgol seeds are not only a medicinal commodity but it is also a source of income for farmers and other businessmen who will now be able to ensure more income through trading and investment in NCDEX platform. Isabgol husk is majorly used by pharmaceutical industry for the patients of constipation, Diarrhoea, cholesterol ,Type II Diabetes, etc. Apart from its husk medicinal properties, it is also being used in food industry especially in ice creams, biscuits and candies.
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) on 19th April-2023, launched futures contracts in Isabgol seed for trading. The contracts are available for trading in four months from May to August 2023. After that, the exchange will add new contracts as per the contract launch calendar.
Isabgol is playing an important role in India’s agricultural export basket with increasing overseas shipments. Despite having a near monopoly in this medicinal agricultural product, Indian producers as well as exporters often face price fluctuations due to various internal and external factors, thereby It was necessary to have an equally robust mechanism for exporters and traders to manage their price risks in an overall volatile environment of this agricultural produce. Unjha in Gujarat being the traditional trading hub of Isabgol is the delivery center for NCDEX Isabgol Seed Futures contract.
Contract Specifications of Isabgol Seed Futures contract
Isabgol Production
India is the only major producer and exporter of Isabgul. Its major importers are U.S.A, Germany & Italy. The average production of Isabgol seed in India 1,87,500 MT (25 Lakh Bag). Production estimation for the FY-2023-24 was of 2,02,500 – 2,10,000 MT (27- 28 Lakh Bag), which is 8- 11% higher than the last year. Rainfall during the peak harvesting month of march damaged 15-18% of the total crop. Now, the estimated crop size is 23 Lakh Bags Approx i.e 1,72,500 MT. Carry-over of Isabgol crop in FY 2023-24 is around 1.5 to 2 Lakh Bags i.e. 11,250 – 15,000 MT
Gujarat accounts for 80 per cent of the country’s Isabgol output, followed by Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Although the Indian Isabgol industry is yet to get organized, India is the largest exporter of the Isabgol husk, with a contribution of more than 85 per cent of the total global consumption.
Prices are currently trading at all time high range of Rs 25,000- 25,500/Quintal
Indian Rupee reversed its three day consecutive losses this week ended on Thursday after dollar retreated from its latest advance. The spot rupee closed at 82.14 on Thursday just bit away from its key support of 82.40 as well. Apparently rupee move is going through narrow ranges ahead of crucial FOMC meeting on May 3. We think the range bound move in the USDINR will continue in coming days with a possible range between 81.80 to 82.40 till Fed come out with more clarity on monetary policy guidance. On the global front, pound hit high of 10 months vs. dollar after the UK inflation still printed above 10% in March. Accordingly headline inflation fell 10.1% in March from February's 10.4% against expectations for a fall to 9.8%. This year pound has rallied substantially by more 2.5%. Rate markets are expecting that BoE will go to hike of about 5% by November this year from 4.25% from the present level. We think BoE will stay ahead compared to Fed, which will boost pound in near term. Meanwhile euro stayed higher above 90.00 convincingly against rupee after US economic data pointing for more contraction in the US relative to Euro zone. Going forward, we think EURUSD has scope to rally next week above 1.1050 which may translates EURINR above 90.40 as well.
USDINR (APR)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.60 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.80 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.23 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.08.
One can buy near 82.00 for the target of 82.80 with the stop loss of 81.60.
GBPINR (APR)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 101.58 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 102.75 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 101.58. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.71.
One can sell near 102.00 for the target of 101.00 with the stop loss of 102.50.
EURINR (APR) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 89.48 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 90.60 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 89.48. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.70.
One can sell near 90.25 for the target of 89.25 with the stop loss of 90.75.
JPYINR (APR) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 60.99 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 61.80 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 61.80. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.16.
One can buy near 61.20 for the target of 62.20 with the stop loss of 60.70.
(2/5)
|
|
Th company will not receive any proceeds from the Offer and all the Offer Proceeds will be received by the Selling Shareholders, in proportion to the Offered Shares sold by the respective Selling Shareholders as part of the Offer.
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.1080, EPS and P/E of estimated annualised FY2023 are Rs.33.82 and 31.94 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 1026, P/E multiple is 30.34. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.1080, book value and P/B of estimated annualised FY23 are Rs. 191.32 and 5.64 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 1026 P/B multiple is 5.36. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital.
Incorporated in 1991, Mankind Pharma Limited develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas and several consumer healthcare products. The company has a pan-India marketing presence and operates 25 manufacturing facilities across the country. As of December 2022, the company had a team of over 600 scientists and a dedicated in-house R&D centre with four units located at IMT Manesar, Gurugram (Haryana) and Thane (Maharashtra).
Domestic focused business of scale with potential for growth:The company is one of the largest domestic formulation businesses in India and ranks fourth in terms of domestic sales in the Indian Pharmaceutical market. The company is ranked third among the 10 largest corporates in the IPM in terms of volumes with approximately 5.6% market share for MAT December 2022. Its revenue from operations in India contributed to 97.60% of its total revenue from operations for the Financial Year 2022, which was one of the highest among Peers Identified by IQVIA.
Domestic Sales growing at 1.3 times the growth rate of the IPM between the Financial Year 2020 and MAT December 2022: Between the Financial Year 2020 and MAT December 2022, the company Domestic Sales grew at a CAGR of approximately 12%, also outperforming the overall IPM growth in Domestic Sales of approximately 10%, by approximately 1.3 times. Between the Financial Year 2020 and MAT December 2022, Domestic Sales had the third fastest growth at a CAGR of approximately 12% among the 10 largest corporates in the IPM by Domestic Sales, compared to the average growth of approximately 10% for the 10 largest corporates (excluding the Company) in the IPM by Domestic Sales and the average growth of approximately 11% for Peers Identified by IQVIA (Source: IQVIA Dataset, IQVIA TSA MAT December 2022 Dataset for India (For FY20-22)).
Several products in portfolio with top 10 rankings across key therapeutic areas:The company has a diversified range of products with market-leading rankings across key therapeutic areas. Several products in its portfolio across key therapeutic areas were ranked amongst the 10 largest companies in the Covered Markets in 10 of the leading therapeutic areas, in terms of Domestic Sales for MAT December 2022.
Increase Covered Market presence including in chronic therapeutic areas:The company intends to continue to increase its Covered Market presence and strengthen its position in the IPM. The company aims to increase its market share by expanding its product portfolio to increase sales, with a focus on chronic therapeutic areas.
Focus on increasing penetration in metro and Class I cities: The company is committed to increasing its penetration in metro and Class I cities. While it is already has a substantial share of Domestic Sales in Class II-IV cities and rural markets compared to the IPM, it aims to explore the potential to further grow its presence in metro and Class I cities. Its Domestic Sales from metro and Class I cities contributed to approximately 53% of its total Domestic Sales for MAT December 2022, lower than approximately 64% recorded for the IPM. It plans to engage key opinionleaders in the healthcare industry as well as corporate hospitals through a dedicated team of regional medical advisors that will seek to foster collaborative relationships across metro and Class I cities.
Focus on building alternative channels for growth: Its established distribution network relies primarily on traditional trade channels for pharmaceuticals, i.e., distribution by stockists. During the nine months ended December 31, 2022, the company sold its products to over 12,000 stockists. Going forward, it will expand its focus on building its market share through alternative channels for growth, including through e-commerce and modern trade channels.
Continue to develop and invest in digital platforms to enhance doctor engagement: The company has developed digital platforms to improve doctor engagement. The company also recently launched Docflix, an over-the-top (“OTT”) platform solely for doctors that provides access to reliable, authentic and engaging content on various medical fields, and which seeks to assist doctors in making quicker and more informed clinical decisions. Other digital platforms developed by the company include Mankind Connect, which is its knowledge dissemination channel for healthcare providers, and Prana, a virtual patient assist chatbot that provides real time information to patients on lifestyle diseases.
The company is engaged in pharmaceutical products with a major focus on domestic markets. The company has suffered a minor setback due to one-time adjustments of its recent takeovers. As the issue is pure Offer For Sale hence, the amount that will be raised won’t go to the company. Besides, on the valuation front, the company looks expensive. A long term investor may opt the issue.
|
Inflows into mutual funds grew almost 7 per cent to Rs 40.05 lakh crore in FY23 from Rs 37.70 lakh crore during trailing previous 12 months despite the muted performance of the broader market. According to the data released by the mutual funds body Amfi on Thursday, the industry's net AUM (Assets Under Management) rose to Rs 39,42,031 crore, while average AUM hit Rs 40,04,638 crore, up from Rs 37,56,682.57 crore and Rs 37,70,295.79 crore, respectively, in March 2022. In the last fiscal, Sensex managed to rise just 0.72 per cent even though investors' wealth eroded by Rs 5.86 lakh crore. Of the total AUM, retail AUM across equity, hybrid and solution-oriented schemes stood at Rs 20,34,533 crore and the average AUM rose to Rs 20,45,632 crore. The biggest contributor was SIPs, which rose to a record Rs 14,276.06 crore in March, taking the overall AUM to Rs 6,83,296.24 crore.
Inflows in the mutual fund industry through systematic investment plans or SIPs reached Rs 1.56 lakh crore in 2022-23, up 25 per cent from the preceding fiscal, suggesting retail investors' trust in the route despite volatility in the markets. In comparison, an inflow of Rs 1.24 lakh crore through the route was registered in 2021-22 and Rs 96,080 crore in 2020-2021, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Moreover, mutual fund SIP contribution has seen over three-fold rise during the last seven years. It was at Rs 43,921 crore during 2016-2017. Additionally, SIP book has also grown consistently from Rs 12,328 crore in March 2022 to an all-time high of Rs 14,276 crore in March 2023, indicating a growth of 16 per cent. During the financial year, SIP inflows averaged nearly Rs 13,000 crore flows per month, helping investors to stay in the stock market and benefit from rupee cost averaging. The steady inflow suggests resilience in domestic market which have been a strong counterbalance to FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) selling.
Inflow in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dropped 74 per cent year-on-year to Rs 653 crore in 2022-23, mainly due to profit booking in this asset class and investors' preference for equities. However, the asset base of gold ETFs and investors' account or folio numbers increased in the last fiscal, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Most of the investors are still preferring equity-oriented mutual funds over the other asset, with the segment registering a net inflow of over Rs 2 lakh crore in FY23. Also, investors have redeemed their investments in gold in favour of other asset classes. According to data available from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), 14-gold linked ETFs have seen an inflow of Rs 653 crore in the fiscal year that ended on March 31 this year. This was way below than Rs 2,541 crore inflow seen in the segment in 2021-22 and Rs 1,614 crore in 2019-20.
Growing awareness about mutual funds and the ease of transactions through digital push led Nippon India Mutual Fund's investor accounts to surge to nearly 2 crore at the end of the financial year 2022-23, making it the largest fund house in terms of folio count, its CEO Sundeep Sikka said. The fund house has seen consistent growth in its folio count over the last two financial years (FY 21 to FY23) as it added 96.42 lakh investors' accounts during the period and in the past fiscal only, it added 26.2 lakh folios, according to a data compiled by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). In terms of total folio count, the numbers have increased from 99.82 lakh in March 2021 to 1.7 crore in March 2022 and finally 1.96 crore in March 2023, the data showed. Sikka, who is the CEO of Nippon Life India Asset Management Company, said that the acceptance of mutual funds as an investment product, along with digital push, have fuelled the growth in folio count.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
