In the week gone by, global stock markets rallied as economic data fueled optimism that the fed would ease monetary policy and revived investor risk appetite. The final reading of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter revealed a 4.9% annualized growth in the US economy, slightly below the consensus estimate of 5.2%. Meanwhile, the latest data on initial jobless claims showed 205,000 people filed for unemployment insurance in the week ending Dec. 16. It could be seen that investors have become increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting interest rates than it is to raising them again. Despite an estimated 0.3 percent economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year for the 19-country euro currency zone, European markets moved higher. Among the factors pulling down economic growth are record high levels of inflation, energy supply challenges, and unreliable supply chains sparked by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the Chinese front, concerns about a banking crisis as well as property market woes kept derating pressures elevated. The Bank of Japan’s Tankan quarterly survey, which measures economic conditions in Japan, showed business confidence at big manufacturers improved more than expected in the fourth quarter, with the index climbing to +12 from +10. Meanwhile, the index for big non-manufacturers’ sentiment rose to +30 from +27, improving for the seventh quarter in a row.
In the domestic markets, across-the-board buying was observed as investors remained optimistic about India's growth prospects. As of now Bond yields have cooled off and political risks have abated. Lately, the market has been surging..." to improve flow. For example: "Recently, the market has witnessed unprecedented growth, driven by robust macroeconomic indicators, substantial investments from both domestic and international players, and a consistent downturn in US bond yields. On the flip side, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of India's debts, cautioning that general government debt is likely to exceed 100 percent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) in the near future. There's an optimistic outlook for potential interest rate cuts in the upcoming year, further bolstering market confidence. Going forward, markets will continue to take direction from global as well as domestic factors.
Turning to the commodity market, CRB index recorded a slight uptick, propelled by a continued decline in the dollar, coupled with some positive developments in economic data. The Dollar Index experienced a significant decline, dropping from a peak of 107 in October 2023 to 101.5. This decline was triggered by signals of potential rate cuts in 2024, providing commodities with an advantageous position in the market. Among industrial metals, copper prices hovered near a more than four-month high, amid growing expectations of tighter supplies and increased demand in 2024. Copper is expected to maintain a trading range between 725 and 740. In the bullion market, gold and silver are anticipated to engage in range trading, with gold fluctuating between 61,500 and 63,500 and silver between 74,000 and 77,000 in a relatively narrow spread. Oil prices rose as tensions persisted in the Middle East following Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, although Angola's decision to leave OPEC raised questions over the group's effectiveness in supporting prices. It can trade with upside bias. This week, with a holiday-shortened schedule and subdued trading activity in the commodities market due to thin volume, the absence of significant data releases and events leading up to the New Year contributes to a relatively quiet week for the market.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company offers a comprehensive portfolio of generative AI services and solutions which indicates future growth visibility. Addition of new partners and robust order book and a good pipeline represent sustain business growth. In Q2FY2024, the margin of the company has improved due to cost efficiency and improved utilization besides the attrition rate has also declined close to long term average. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.4308 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on 2 yrs average P/E of 30.89x and FY25 EPS of Rs.139.45.
According to the management of the company, it has maintained a strong balance sheet and robust cash flows with consolidated net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2 times. Domestic demand is strong especially from pent up demand from auto, B&C, aerospace (post resumption of international travel across the globe) and beverage can. Demand from packaging both domestic as well as globally are immune to recessionary trends. Aluminium market in India will gradually evolve and extrusion and rolling products demand expected to increase by 100kt in next 3-4 years. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.690 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on expected P/Bv of 1.40x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.492.75.
The stock closed at Rs.597.45 on 22nd December, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.438 on 26th October, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.633.75 on 21st December, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 530.
After falling to its 52 week low of 438 levels from its record highs of 1019 levels, the stock managed to take support and spent most of the time in broader range of 450-600 in the year 2023. However from last few weeks, once again, lower level buying has been emerged into the stock as prices were seen surpassing above its 200 DEMA on weekly interval once again. Last week, the stock has managed to give fresh breakout above its key resistance level of 600 after a period of prolong consolidation phase. The rising volumes along with price action suggest for further up move into the stock. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 595-600 levels for the upside target of 705-710 levels with SL below 525 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.2379.45 on 22nd December, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.1730 on 07th February, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.2410 on 15th December 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.2094
The stock has been steadily consolidating in a broader range of 1800-2300 zone from past more than one year. After a series of consolidation, the stock has now finally managed to give fresh breakout above its key resistance level of 2380 and also marked its fresh 52 week high of 2410. The positive divergences on secondary oscillators along with price momentum suggest next upswing into the stock. Technically the stock has also given a breakout above its neckline of the inverted Head & Shoulder pattern, visible on shorter time frame. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2375- 2380 levels for the upside target of 2785-2800 levels with SL below 2100 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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Indian markets remained choppy in the week gone by as a lot of intraday volatility was observed in both Nifty and Bank Nifty indices. Nifty marked its record highs while Bank Nifty remained under pressure during the week and settled the week with cut of more than a percent. The bullish moves were supported by IT, Reality, Metal and energy counter while banking counter was seen trading under pressure. From the derivative front, call writers seen adding open interest at 21500 strikes while consistent put writing was observed at 21300, 21200 & 21000 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 12.39%, while put options concluded at 13.04%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 13.76%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.19 for the week as the volatility is on higher side we advise traders to maintain extra caution while selecting stock and sector specific moves. However the bias is likely to remain in favour of Bulls, so any dip into the prices should be used to create fresh longs as 'buy on dips' strategy is likely to continue to drive investors during the week as well. The immediate support for the Nifty lies in the range of 21100-21000 zone while on higher side 21500-21700 zone would act as an immediate hurdle for the markets.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices traded down for most part of the week following muted domestic demand at prevailing levels. Spot prices slumped further on limited offtake by millers in expectation of rise in supplies in Jan as new crop is likely to commence in Telangana during Jan-Feb. Moreover, sluggish exports enquire amid fall in exports in past couple of months till Oct’24 showed by government official release of export figures also weighed on market sentiments. India exported about 10.13 thousand tonnes of turmeric in Oct’23 as compared to 11.17 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Total export during Apr’24-Oct’24 rose 2.6% Y-o-Y to 102.16 thousand tonnes. Losses in turmeric are likely to be limited as tighter carryover stocks and lower production prospects for upcoming season will prompt stockists and millers to buy turmeric at every dips in prices. Considering the price seasonality, turmeric prices are expected to move up in Dec due to weaker production prospects for upcoming season. April futures ruled at premium of about 2400 due to better demand outlook. Overall production is likely to remain down as compared to current year (2023-24) year production of 10.45 lakh tonnes due to lower acreages under turmeric. Acreages shrunk in year 2024-25 that will lead to fall in production by at least by 8%-10% Y-o-. Turmeric Apr prices are likely to trade in range of 13400- 15300 in coming weeks.
Jeera futures witnessed huge volatility during the week kept bias on downside due to better supply prospects supported by aggressive sowing numbers. About 5.30 lakh Ha was sown under jeera as on 18th Dec in Gujarat as compared to 2.61 lakh Ha of previous year. Similarly, about 6.6 lakh Ha was sown under jeera in Rajasthan so far as compared to 5.6 lakh Ha of previous year. Weakness in Jeera is likely to remain continue with improved production prospects that will force stockists to release their stocks in expectation of rise in supplies in domestic market. Jeera export tumbled to 6.2 thousand tonnes in Oct’23 against the 11.7 thousand tonnes of previous year wheras total export for year 2023-24 reported lower at 34% Y-o-Y so far in Oct’23.Total Jeera exports have slumped 32% Y-o-Y during Apr’23-Sep’23. Jeera is likely to trade in range of 32000-43000.
Dhaniya prices traded down on account of profit booking triggered with muted domestic demand. Downfall in dhaniya is likely to be capped with weaker production prospects for upcoming season. Sowing activities are slower so far in year 2023 as compared to last year due to delayed kharif harvest in Gujarat as only 1.14 lakh Ha was sown under dhaniya in Gujarat as on 18th Dec Vs 2.18 lakh Ha of previous year. Similarly, about 47.2 thousand Ha was sown in Rajasthan against the 50 thousand Ha of previous year. Robust export demand is likely to support firmness in prices further. India exported about 3.9 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in Oct’23 against the 2.2 thousand tonnes of last year whereas overall export was reported at 70.12 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Oct’23 higher by 271% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7100-8050.
Gold experienced a second consecutive week of gains, propelled by a significant drop in the dollar and Treasury yields. Traders increasingly bet on the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts in the coming year. Thursday's data revealed that US economic growth in the third quarter was not as robust as initially thought, and the December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell well below expectations. The dollar index lingered near a five-month low, heightening gold's appeal to holders of other currencies. Simultaneously, US 10-year bond yields hovered close to their lowest point since July. The upcoming focus for investors is Friday's US core PCE reading, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which will provide insights into the monetary policy outlook. Market participants are now pricing in an 83% probability of a US rate cut by March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, UK inflation plummeted in November to a more than two-year low, reinforcing the possibility of a global cycle of rate cuts. In other regions, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, and the People's Bank of China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged. On the Comex, gold prices rebounded after testing significant support at $1980 and are now advancing towards $2080; a break above this level could push prices to new highs. Silver prices are mirroring gold's trajectory and may trade in the range of $23.600 to $25.90. Looking ahead in the week, Gold prices on MCX are expected to fluctuate between Rs 61500 and Rs 63400, while silver may trade in the range of Rs 73200 to Rs 77400 levels.
Crude oil prices achieved weekly gains amid sustained tensions in the Middle East sparked by Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. However, concerns over the effectiveness of OPEC were heightened following Angola's decision to exit the organization. Both oil contracts saw an increase of over 4% for the week, driven by apprehensions regarding shipping in the Red Sea. The Yemeni Houthi militant group's attacks, carried out in solidarity with Palestinians, led to a growing number of maritime carriers avoiding the Red Sea. This has resulted in significant global trade disruptions through the Suez Canal, a vital artery responsible for approximately 12% of worldwide trade. However, potential gains were tempered by Angola's oil minister expressing dissatisfaction with OPEC membership, stating it did not serve the country's interests. Previous protests by Angola against OPEC+'s decision to reduce its oil output quota for 2024 added complexity to the situation. The Saudi-led OPEC+ group has been actively seeking support in recent months to deepen output cuts and bolster oil prices. Major oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to voluntary output cuts of around 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024. Looking ahead, crude oil prices may experience mixed movements, contingent on news developments. The potential trading range for the upcoming week is expected to be between 5950 and 6450. Meanwhile, natural gas prices saw positive movement throughout the week due to a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal, forecasts of colder weather and increased heating demand in early January. Additionally, a record volume of gas continued to flow to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. In the coming week, natural gas prices may exhibit sideways to bullish trends, finding support near 190 and encountering resistance near 230 levels.
Base metals may trade sideways with bullish bias helped by expectations of Chinese economic policy support amid worries of supply disruptions due to shipping constraints in the Red Sea. Also helping improve sentiment about the troubled property sector in top metals consumer China was news that Beijing and Shanghai relaxed home purchase restrictions. Five of China's largest state banks; including the Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have cut interest rates on some deposits from December 22, 2023, according to the banks' websites. The market is most certainly looking for additional support from China next year and also for the green transition to gain momentum. Copper may trade in the range of 715-745 levels. Supply concerns fuelled by mine closures, a sliding dollar and falling stocks in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange (LME) may continue to support the prices. Anglo American has reduced its copper production guidance for the next two years by 20% and 18% respectively. Zinc can trade in range of 215-235 levels. The global zinc market deficit eased to 52,500 metric tons in October from a deficit of 62,000 tons in September, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed. Lead can move in the range of 180-189 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 195-209 levels. Japan's shipments of aluminium products have been falling for 20 straight months and the spot premium last month fell below $80 a ton. Moreover, Japanese buyers will have noted that physical premiums have fallen even harder in both Europe and the United States. Steel long (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 43100-45200 levels with positive bias.
Cotton prices are expected to trade sideways to higher due to weaker production prospects for upcoming season. Cotton production may decline by around 8 per cent to 294.10 lakh bales in the 2023-24 season due to lower yields in most growing regions, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). The production this year is expected to lower by 24.8 lakh bales at 294.10 lakh bales following infestation of pink ball worms in the northern region, while the yield in the southern and the central regions will be affected due to no rainfall for 45 days from August, 1 till September 15 as per CAI. Total supply till the end of November 2023 is estimated at 92.05 lakh bales which consists of the arrivals of 60.15 lakh bales, imports of 3 lakh bales and the opening stock of 28.90 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. Cotton MCX Dec prices are likely to trade in range of 54500-58000. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1500-1600 level. Cocud prices are expected to trade on weaker note due to demand concerns in feed meal industry. Increased availability of alternative meals will keep prices down. Cocud prices are likely to trade in range of 2640- 2850.
Guar seed futures are expected to trade higher with shrinking supplies in the market. Arrivals pace has been slower that will prompt millers to for buying at prevailing rates as crush margin has improved with rise guar meal prices. Rising seasonal demand of guar meal is likely to keep crushing demand of guar seed higher in coming weeks. Overall production of guar seed has been down by 11%- 13% Y-o-Y in year 2023-23 that kept inventory level tighter for millers. Bleak export prospects of guar gum are likely to cap the gains. Persistent fall in crude oil prices and tumbling rig counts in US has raised worries over export potential of guar gum keeping guar prices down. Guar seed prices are likely to find support near 5150 whereas resistance is seen at 5600. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to honor support of 10000 whereas resistance is seen at 11000.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in domestic market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 692 tonnes of mentha oil during Apr23-Aug’23 as compared to 886 tonnes of previous year down by 21% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near 895 and resistance can be seen at 960 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with reduced supplies in the market. Arrivals have dropped as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. However, muted demand of castor oil and meal is still a major concern that will cap the excessive gains in prices. India exported about 213 thousand tonnes of castor seed during Apr’23-Oct’23 as compared to 189 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5600-6250 levels.
It closed at Rs. 6222.00 on 21st Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.6123.00. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.7406. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.6350 for a target of Rs. 6000 with the stop loss of 6520.
It closed at Rs. 75770.00 on 21st Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.74710.46. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.9168. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.74500 for a target of Rs. 77800 with the stop loss of 72800.
It closed at Rs.14280.00 on 21st Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.14537.06 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.0305. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.14000 for a target of Rs. 14900 with the stop loss of 13500.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
In the week gone by, CRB index recorded a slight uptick, propelled by a continued decline in the dollar, coupledwith some positive developments in economic data.TheDollarIndex experienced a significant decline, dropping from a peak of 107 in October 2023 to 101.5. This decline was triggered by signals of potential rate cuts in 2024, providing commodities with an advantageous position in themarket. During thepasttwoweeks, energy countersdisplayedupwardmomentum, supported by improved data. WTI crude found a base around $68 and concluded the period near $74. On the MCX, it rebounded from a low of 5660 to 6288 within the same timeframe. Oil prices rose as much as 1% on Friday as tensions persisted in the Middle East following Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, although Angola's decision to leave OPEC raised questions over the group's effectiveness in supporting prices. Despite the peak demand season, natural gas resisted making significant upward strides but managed to end the week with a modest gain, closing above the 210 mark. Following a notable decline in the first week of December, both gold and silver made efforts to recoverin the subsequenttwoweeks.COMEXgoldsuccessfully concludedabove $2060,while on MCX, gold closed above 62700. However, heightened volatility in INR added an element of uncertainty, leading to a decoupling of gold prices on MCX from those on the COMEX in recent trading sessions. Silver closed the week near 75600. Gold’s gains came after the dollar hit more than four-month lows on Thursday. Base metals traded with mix sentiments. The closing price for copper hovered around 726 due to reports of supply tightness. Among industrial metals, copper prices hovered near a more than four-month high on Wednesday, amid growing expectations of tighter supplies and increased demand in 2024.Although aluminum prices initially rose,they failed to sustain higher levels and concluded the week with a sideways trend. Zinc experienced a slight increase, indicating modest upward movement, while lead prices were bearish, signaling a downward trajectory. A revised reading on third-quarter GDP showed the U.S. economy grew slightly less than initially expected. The reading still showed the U.S. economy growing far more than its peers in the developed world. But a smaller-than-expected rise in weekly jobless claims rampeduphopes foracoolinglabormarket.
In the agricultural sector, guar seed and guar gum prices exhibited a narrow spread due to a lack of clarity in the market. Overall production of guar seed has been down by 11%-13% Y-o-Y in year 2023-23 that kept inventory level tighter for millers. However, sluggish export of guar gum is still a major concern for exporters and millers; that capped the excessive gains in prices. In the spices segment, coriander traded quietly, while jeera experienced significant fluctuations. Sowing activities has been reached at last stages running smoothly due to favorable weather condition. About 4.33 lakh Ha was sown under jeera as on 11th Dec in Gujarat as compared to 2.24 lakh Ha of previous year. Similarly, about 6.6 lakh Ha was sown under jeera in Rajasthan so far as compared to 5.6 lakh Ha of previous year. Castor seed prices remained within a certain range, and cotton oil seeds cake prices saw a notable decline, closing near 2700. Sluggish export of mentha oil is still a major concern for the prices. Mentha oil prices closed near 930; down from the higher level of 960.
Auto sales are the most important indicator for the automotive sector. More auto sales lead to increased sales and earnings for automakers, which then order more parts from auto part makers. For much of the 20th century, auto sales steadily trended higher.
The automotive sector is a cyclical business, so sales in the automotive sector are higher when economic activity is strong and people feel confident about their future economic prospects. In this environment, more people are likely to make a major purchase, such as an automobile. Automotive sales are one of the main drivers of base metals demand as it is used in car manufacturing. A strong automobile sales data indicates a rise in demand for base metals.
Global Auto sales
Global light vehicle sales are expected to grow by 4.8% in 2023, to 85.0 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. Global new light vehicle sales in 2024 will see a 2.8% increase year-over-year to 88.3 million. The light vehicle output recovery continues to feed inventory restocking efforts across many regions, as supply chain and demand is further recovering, supported by lingering pent-up consumer demand.
The growth in electric vehicle sales is expected to be a major driver of the global light vehicle market in the coming years. Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 12.5 million units in 2023, up from 9.6 million units in 2022. This growth is being driven by government policies, such as emissions regulations, as well as the increasing availability of electric vehicles.
U.S.: U.S. auto sales volumes are expected to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, an estimated increase of 2.0% from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. US consumers in the market for new vehicle in 2024 will continue to face affordability issues by way of high interest rates, tight credit conditions and slow-to-recede new vehicle prices.
China: Passenger vehicle sales are projected to rise by 3.1% to 26.8 million units next year, slowing from a 10.3% increase this year, according to CAAM estimates. New energy vehicle sales are also set to cool with a 20% growth in 2024 versus a 36.5% jump in 2023, while car exports are forecast to rise to about 5.5 million from this year's 4.8 million, the data showed. This growth is being driven by government policies, such as emissions regulations, as well as the increasing availability of electric vehicles.
Europe: Automobile sales in Europe are expected to grow by 12.8% in 2023, to 17.4 million units, according to the S&P Global Mobility. For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 15.1 million units, up by 2.9% y/y - reflecting economic recession risks, tighter credit conditions, easing pent-up demand, still-high car prices, and tapering EV subsidies.
Japan:Automobile sales in Japan have shown a positive trend in 2023, with a steady increase compared to the previous year. As of November 2023, total new vehicle sales in Japan have risen by 14.5% year-on-year to reach 4.42 million units. This marks the 15th consecutive month of growth for the Japanese auto market.
India: As of November 2023, the Indian auto industry has already crossed the 3 million mark in passenger vehicle sales, indicating a strong year so far, reported by FADA. October 2023 witnessed record-breaking figures with 26.21 lakh vehicles sold, the highest ever number posted in a single month. Industry experts predict the year to end with a total of 4 million passenger vehicles sold, reaching a new landmark for the Indian auto market.
The Indian Rupee experienced a marginal uptick this week, supported by a rise in most Asian currencies on hope of faster Fed rate cuts in all 2024. The rupee hit as high as 82.90 before falling below 83.20 amid heightened dollar demand from importers, particularly local oil companies. Forthe week, Rupee traded between 82.90 to 83.27 versus dollar. The Rupee setto close the year with a narrow loss of less than a percent compared to roughly 7% dropped in the previous year. Meanwhile the dollar index steadied at 101.8 after touching its lowest point since August this week with a parallel boost in euro, pound and yen as well. The upward momentum in euro and pound was influenced by a renewed risk appetite that supported global equities. Moreover the slightly weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP growth for Q3, at 4.9% compared to the anticipated 5.2%, contributed to the dollar's decline. Apparently futures are pricing over 80% for a first Fed rate cut starting from March while downbeat UK CPI print triggered earlier rate cuts in May compared to September a few weeks ago. Going forward the dollar's trajectory is contingent on the upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data ending this week, which is anticipated to provide clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy stance forthe coming year. In the last week of 2023, we may expectthe dollarto face weakness due to year-end against euro and pound. Critical levels to watch in euro/rupee and pound/rupee are 92.00 and 106.30 respectively. The USDINR may stay in a narrow range between 83.00 to 83.30 in the last week of this calendar year.
USDINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.28. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.95 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.6 levels.
One can sell near 83.5 for the target of 82.9 with the stop loss of 83.8
GBPINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.95. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 59 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 106.5 levels.
One can buy near 105.5 for the target of 106.5 with the stop loss of 105
EURINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 64.63. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 65 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 90.62 levels, while resistance is expected near 92 levels.
One can buy near 91.4 for the target of 92.4 with the stop loss of 90.9
JPYINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 57.52. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.9 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 57.52 levels, while resistance is expected near 59.25 levels.
One can buy near 58.5 for the target of 59.5 with the stop loss of 58
Awfis Space Solutions Ltd has filed a draft red-herring prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India to raise funds from the public. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 160 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to 10.02 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to 5.01 million shares by Peak XV Partners Investments V, up to 4.94 million shares by Bisque Ltd, and up to 75,174 million shares by Link Investment Trust. ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, IIFL Securities and Emkay Global Financial Services are the book running managers to the issue. Awfis Space Solutions is India's largest flexible workspace solutions provider, leading among the top 5 benchmarked players in the segment as of June 2023. They offer diverse workspace solutions catering to individual flexible desk needs, customised offices for various entities including start-ups, SMEs, and large corporations. The firm reported a revenue of Rs 545.28 crore in FY23 against Rs 257.05 crore a year ago. Net loss for the year stood at Rs 46.64 crore against Rs 57.16 crore a year ago.
Inox India stock made a strong debut on December 21, listing at a 43 percent premium over its IPO price. The stock opened at Rs 949.65 on the NSE against the issue price of Rs 660. The IPO was subscribed 61.28 times during December 14-18, with support from all categories. Qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) were in the leading position buying 147.80 times the allotted quota, while high net worth individuals (HNIs) and retail investors subscribed for 53.20 times and 15.3 times the portions set aside for them. The cryogenic tanks manufacturer raised Rs 1,459.32 crore through its public issue at the upper end of the price band of Rs 627-660 per share. The IPO comprised only an offer-for-sale by the existing shareholders, and there was no fresh issue component.
Siyaram Recycling lists nearly 20% premium on debut . Founded in 2007, Siyaram Recycling Industries specializes in brass scrap separation, manufacturing brass products like ingots, billets, rods, and sanitary installation parts. They operate in three Jamnagar plants, each dedicated to specific production: Unit I for billets, ingots, and plumbing parts (4970 sqm), Unit II for sanitary parts (3629 sqm), and Unit III mainly for scrap separation (3346 sqm, with a 366 sqm scrap separation area). The firm reported a revenue of Rs 497.86 crore in FY23 against Rs 426.44 crore a year ago. Net profit for the year stood at Rs 7.65 crore versus Rs 3.22 crore last year. As of September 2023, its total debt stood at Rs 62.23 crore.
BLS E-Services, Jyoti CNC Automation, and Popular Vehicles & Services have received approval from the capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds through an initial public offering. The SEBI issued observation letters to Jyoti CNC Automation and Popular Vehicles & Services on December 15, while BLS E-Services received the said letter on December 12. The issuance of an observation letter means the SEBI has allowed the company to go ahead with its IPO plans. Computerised numerical control machine manufacturer Jyoti CNC, which had filed preliminary papers in September this year, is planning to raise Rs 1,000 crore via public issue comprising only a fresh issue component of shares worth Rs 1,000 crore. Of the net fresh issue proceeds, Rs 450 crore will be utilised by the company for repaying its debts and Rs 300 crore for long-term working capital requirements. The remaining funds will be kept for general corporate purposes. The Gujarat-based company with the 12th largest market share in the global CNC machine industry delivers customised solutions to industries such as aerospace and defence, auto and auto components, general engineering, EMS, and dies & moulds. The book-running lead managers to the issue are Equirus Capital, ICICI Securities and SBI Capital Markets.
Refrigerants supplier Stallion India Fluorochemicals has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial share sale. The Initial Public Offering (IPO) comprises a fresh issue of up to 1.78 crore equity shares and an Offer For Sale (OFS) component of up to 43.02 lakh shares by its promoter Shazad Sheriar Rustomji, as per the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). The proceeds from the issue will be used towards funding working capital requirements, capital expenditure requirements for its proposed facilities in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, and general corporate purposes. Stallion India Fluorochemicals is a supplier of refrigerants and various gases, catering to both bulk and small cylinder/container requirements. It has extensive experience in large-scale Fluorochemicals debulking bottling and distribution. The company's shares are proposed to be listed on the NSE and BSE.
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ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund said it has changed its ETF product symbols on BSE and NSE, so that investors can identify the ETF Schemes of the fund with ease. The codes will now be a combination of the name of the fund and the suffix ‘IETF’. IETF stands for ICICI Prudential ETF. For example, ICICILIQ will now be LIQUIDIETF, ICICINIFTY will be NIFTYIETF, and so on. Chintan Haria, Principal- Investment Strategy, ICICI Prudential A MC, said, “In line with our constant quest for making things better and smoother for our customers, we have changed the ETF product symbols to further simplify the identification of ETF Schemes for passive investment purposes. Product identification can sometimes be confusing for investors. Starting the ETF Schemes name followed by the suffix ‘IETF’, we believe will make the selection more convenient”.
WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund has filed a draft document for WhiteOak Capital Pharma and Healthcare Fund. The scheme will be an open-ended equity scheme investing in the pharma and healthcare sector. The scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE Healthcare TRI. The scheme will be managed by Ramesh Mantri and Dheeresh Pathak ( Equity investments) and Piyush Baranwa (debt investments). According to the scheme information document, the investment objective of the scheme is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments of pharma and healthcare companies. The scheme will have direct and regular plans with growth options. The scheme will allocate 80 -100% of its assets in equity & equity related instruments of pharma and healthcare companies, 0-20% of assets in equity & equity related instruments of companies other than pharma and healthcare companies, 0-20% assets in debt and money market instruments and 0-10%, and 0-10% assets in units issued by REITS and InVITs.
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