In the weak gone by, global stock market continued to move upward driven by signs that the economy will dodge a recession, falling inflation data and resilient corporate earnings. We could see that cyclical stocks that tend to rise and fall with the economy are rallying, the latest sign that investors are becoming more optimistic about the possibility of a “soft landing,” i.e. no recession. In the recent meeting, the Fed raised the interest rates by 25bps which now stands at its highest levels since early 2001. The Federal Reserve's statement keeps the door open for future rate hikes, but prioritizes data-driven decisions. In the US, a Commerce Department data report showed the world’s largest economy grew faster than expected in the April-June quarter this year, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 2.4%. The European Central Bank (ECB) in its recent meeting, lifted interest rates by another quarter-point, raising the borrowing costs to their highest level in 23 years and kept its options open on whether more increases will be needed to bring down inflation against a worsening economic backdrop. While Japan’s central bank held its benchmark policy rate at -0.1%. In another development, Bank of Japan announced an adjustment in its stance for its yield curve control policy. This is the first time 10-year JGB yields have hit this level since September 2014. The consumer price index in Japan’s capital city of Tokyo rose 3.2% year on year in July, slightly higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous month. China's pledge to step up policy support for its stuttering economy soothed sentiment and lifted beaten-down Hong Kong and Chinese stocks.
On the domestic market front, domestic markets moved higher led by better progress of monsoon, decent earnings from India Inc and steady foreign capital inflow despite mixed global cues. Positive global sentiment also prevailed due to the reduced prospects of a US recession. Earnings reports have been the biggest driver of the market over the past few days along with global cues which have oscillated strongly in the past week. Going forward, market will continue to take direction from both global as well as domestic factors.
Back at home, it was an eventful week for markets. CRB continued its upward movement on weakness in dollar index and hope of stimulus in China. Fed Interest rate meeting was the key event. Bullion prices witnessed strong move; however better than expected Durable Goods Order and GDP of US gave a jolt to the safe haven buying and they closed the week in red territory. Gold and silver may trade in a range of 58200-60500 levels and 72000-76000 levels respectively. Going forward, commodities prices are likely to be in range. Crude oil witnessed strong upside move, can see resistance near 6850-6900 levels. Natural gas futures can trade in slim range of 210-225 levels. Base metals may remain in sideways territory. NBS Manufacturing PMI, GDP Growth Rate of and Inflation Rate of Italy, Core Inflation Rate and GDP Growth Rate of Euro Area, GDP of Mexico, RBA Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment Rate of Germany, Canada and New Zealand, ISM Manufacturing, Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate and ISM Services of US, BoE Interest Rate Decision etc are scheduled this week, which will stimulate lots of fluctuations in commodities prices.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
Over the past couple of quarters, the asset quality of the bank is improving and the same is likely to continue. The management is focusing on margin improvement and looking for business growth without diluting the margin. So far the retail loan growth has been driving the business and margins of the bank. Retail loan growth is expected to continue going forward and the management expects corporate credit growth to start picking up next year; both this will help the bank to achieve improved credit growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.236 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/Bv of 1.15x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.205.64.
With a strong foothold in India, the company has secured a dominant position in key industries like mattresses, automotive, footwear, lingerie, and furniture. Sheela Foam (Sleepwell + Kurlon) will be a leader and have a combined market share of 21% in the modern mattress market in India. Sheela also announced investment of 300 crores in Furlenco for 35% stake. With ambitious growth targets and a focus on diverse segments and countries, the company is positioned to deliver sustainable growth going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 1412 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 7.26x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.194.40E.
The stock closed at Rs.413.45 on 28th July, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs.315.10 on 28th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.443.60 on 15th September, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.378.
After making a 52 week low of 315 in a month of March 2023, the stock has shown almost a V shaped recovery and once again caught a momentum above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts. At this current juncture, the stock has formed an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on the weekly charts and is on verge of fresh breakout above the same. On the short term charts, the stock has already given a fresh breakout above the falling trend line of downward sloping channel along with sudden rise in volumes. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 410-415 levels for the upside target of 450-455 levels with SL below 385 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.321.30 on 28thJuly, 2023. It made a 52- week low at Rs.267.75 on 29th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.381 on 04th November, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.302.
The Stock has been consolidating in a broader range of 270-310 levels, since last six months with prices holding well above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly interval. Technically, the stock has formed a Double Bottom pattern on weekly charts while taking support at its 200 days exponential moving average. At current juncture, fresh breakout has been observed above the W pattern formation. The rise in prices has been observed along with rising volumes, which suggests long build up into the stock. The momentum is expected to carry towards its previous swing highs as follow up buying can be seen into the prices after a breakout. Therefore, one can buy the stock in range of 320-322 levels for the upside target of 36-365 levels with SL below 295 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
Charts by Reliable software
The August series began with a lacklustre to negative start in the market, witnessing stock-specific movements. Some profit booking was observed around the significant psychological level of 20,000, which consequently dragged down the key indices. Notably, the Banknifty has been underperforming compared to Nifty in recent sessions, and this trend is expected to persist into the next week. During the result season, the pharma, infra and metal sectors showed promising performance, while there was notable buying activity in the Healthcare, energy and realty sectors. Conversely, the FMCG & IT sectors faced some pressure during this period. Currently, the Nifty's rollover stands at 84%, higher than the previous month, indicating the otential for further momentum in the Nifty index. This month's rollover is the highest observed in the last three months. On the flip side, the rollover in Banknifty remains unchanged, suggesting a consistent momentum compared to the previous month. For Nifty, the highest call open interest concentration is at 19,800, while for put options, it stands at 19,600 strike. As for Banknifty, the call and put open interest concentration is at 45,500. The implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 10.59%, while for put options, it closed at 11.29%. The Nifty VIX for the week concluded at 10.51%. Additionally, the PCR OI for the week ended at 1.36. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that Nifty will likely trade in a range of 19,800 to 19,350, and any breakout beyond these levels may trigger further trends in the market.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices witnessed sharp gains last week as prices crossed the psychological level of 14000 and eyeing towards all time high of 16070 levels. Sowing season has already been delayed due to slower monsoon progress in June and now heavy rainfall affecting the crop progress adversely in major producing states. Stockists and Spice millers are very active and going for aggressive buying in wake of bleak supply outlook ahead. Area under turmeric is estimated to be down by 15-20% in year 2023 due to monsoon concerns at the time of sowing that is prompting millers and stockists to go for aggressive buying. Apart from that, robust export demand is also supporting bullish momentum of the market. India exported about 39.42 thousand tonnes of turmeric during the time period of Apr- May’23 as compared to 30.9 thousand tonnes of previous year, higher by 28% Y-o- Y. Turmeric Aug contract is likely to trade in range of 13500-16100.
Jeera futures witnessed mixed trade last week as after witnessing profit booking during first half of the week prices managed to close the week in green zone. Prevailing concerns over supply shortage and active export enquires is supporting firmness in jeera prices. Export jumped for 2 consecutive months of Apr-May reported at 47 thousand tonnes as compared to 23 thousand tonnes of previous year but now export is likely to be down in coming months. Heavy rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan impacted arrival pace adversely. Gains in jeera are likely to be limited as due to slowdown in festive and wedding season demand. Global supply will also improve in coming weeks with commencement of arrivals in Turkey. Demand of Syrian Jeera has also improved due to price competitiveness that will weigh on Indian Jeera prices. jeera Aug prices are likely to trade in range of 55000 – 63000 levels.
Dhaniya NCDEX Aug prices are likely to trade higher mainly due to slower arrival pace in the market. Heavy rainfall in central and western region on India has impacted the arrival pace adversely. Moreover, increased export enquire will also help prices to trade on positive bias. India exported about 35.4 thousand tonnes during time period of Apr-May’23 against the 6.23 thousand tonnes of previous year. Dhaniya NCDEX Aug futures are likely to trade in range of 7300- 8200.
Gold experienced a significant decline in previous week, falling 0.4% in response to robust U.S. economic data. The data strength bolstered both the dollar and bond yields in an environment characterized by high interest rates. This situation has dragged down the value of the non-interest-bearing metal, resulting in its most substantial weekly decline in five weeks. Despite the decline, there appears to be some uncertainty in the market, causing a lack of conviction in the higher drift of gold prices. This indecision stems from the imminent Bank of Japan meeting, with speculations suggesting that discussions regarding adjustments to its yield curve control policy may occur. As a result, market participants remain cautious and attentive to developments. Asian stocks, having reached five-month highs, have retreated, and the yen has seen a sharp rally due to speculation surrounding the Bank of Japan's stance on ultra-low interest rates. It is anticipated that the bank may maintain its current low-rate policy but make minor tweaks to extend the lifespan of its yield control policy. The U.S. dollar index and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are hovering near Thursday's highs, which were reached following the release of data indicating faster-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter. This has alleviated concerns of a potential recession and increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing further interest rate hikes. On the COMEX, Gold price stuck in the wider range of 1920-1980 levels, ahead in the week prices continue to move in the same range. Silver prices may continue to trade in the range of 22.700-25.100 levels. Ahead in the week, MCX Gold prices may continue to witness selling pressure where it may take support near 58000 levels and could face resistance near 60100 levels. Silver may trade in the range of 70000- 75000 levels.
Crude oil prices have recorded their fifth consecutive weekly gain, marking the longest streak of such gains in over a year. The increase in prices is attributed to a tightening crude market, with supply becoming scarcer and the economic outlook showing signs of improvement. Over the past few weeks, crude futures have been supported by falling crude stocks, indicating rising fuel demand, and easing concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes. Brent crude has seen a notable increase of about $10 compared to a month ago, underscoring the upward momentum in oil prices. In the week ending on July 21, US crude stocks declined by 600,000 barrels, further bolstering the sentiment in the market. The positive economic indicators have also contributed to the bullish trend in crude oil prices. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 2.4% in the second quarter, surpassing the 2% growth in the first quarter and exceeding the market consensus of 1.6%, as reported by the country's Commerce Department. Amid these developments, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve implemented its 11th interest rate increase since March 2022, raising rates by 25 basis points. The move is part of the Fed's efforts to mitigate inflationary pressures on the nation's economy. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness buying, and the possible trading range would be 6200-6800 levels. Natural gas can’t seem to break beyond mid-$2 pricing. Weather forecasts indicating August temperatures may be lower than those of July drove a stake into gas longs who had been counting on this month’s superheat to extend into later summer, heightening power burns related to air-conditioning demand. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade in wider range of 200-230 levels.
Base metals may trade sideways with bearish bias on worries over lacklustre demand in China after more weak data and stronger dollar as U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, easing off recession fears but increasing the likelihood that the Fed could further hike interest rates. Top consumer China pledged to step up policy support for the economy, focusing on boosting domestic demand but yet to release more detail on stimulus measures to fulfil the pledges. China's industrial profits extended this year's double-digit pace of declines in June as waning demand took a toll on companies' profit margins. But if China comes with more stimulus than market expected to speed up economy, then expectations of higher demand may support prices. Copper may trade in the range of 725-750 levels. The discount for copper for nearby delivery on the London Metal Exchange over the three-month contract has jumped to a two-month peak after a surge in stocks available to the market in LME-registered warehouses. Zinc can trade in range of 210-225 levels. LME stocks of zinc have risen above 90,000 metric tons for the first time since May of 2022 thanks to a surge of deliveries into Singapore. Lead can move in the range of 180-188 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 192-205 levels. Global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year-on-year to 34.212 million metric tons in the first half of 2023 mainly due to higher production in China, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Steel long (Aug) is likely to trade in the range of 43000-45000 levels with weak bias on NCDEX due to lower demand.
Cotton prices are likely to trade sideways to higher due to reports of crop damage in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Heavy rainfall in Gujarat resulted into water logging issue for cotton crops in northern and central part of India that may lead crop damage. Moreover, improve demand of cotton yarn is also likely to support market sentiments. However, improved sowing progress will cap the gains. About 25.39 Lakh Ha was sown in Gujarat as on 21st July Vs 23.11 Lakh Ha of 2022. Total area across India reached up to 109.6 Lakh Ha in year 2023 Vs 109.9 lakh Ha. Cotton MCX Aug prices are likely to trade in range of 54000-58000 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1500-1580 levels.
Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Aug futures are likely to trade down due to increased availability of green fodder with well progress of monsoon rainfall in northern India. Increased production outlook of other competitive meals will also weighed on prices. Cotton seed oil cake Aug prices are likely to trade in range of 2200-2370 levels.
Guar seed Aug futures is likely to trade on mixed to higher on prevailing weather uncertainty as heavy rainfall in western Rajasthan sparked the fear of crop damage. Sowing area also dropped in Rajasthan as 22.67 lakh Ha was sown under Guar as on 27th July Vs 26.17 lakh Ha of previous year. However, bleak export enquires of gum will cap the gains. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5800- 6450 levels in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11300-14000 levels.
Mentha oil Aug contract is likely to trade down with rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 860-920 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade mixed to down on reports of rise in area under castor in Gujarat. Castor Sowing activities are running on positive note as about 1.66 lakh Ha was sown under castor so far across India Vs 0.53 lakh Ha of previous year. Moreover, slack demand of castor oil will also keep prices down in near term. India exported about 120 thousand tonnes of castor oil during Apr’23-May’23 Vs 143 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 16% Y-o-Y. China has been the major importer of castor oil but its buying dropped by 7% Y-o-Y to 63 thousand tonnes during above mentioned period. However, prevailing weather uncertainties in Gujarat will restrict the losses. Castor seed Aug prices are likely to trade in range of 6200-6550 levels.
It closed at Rs. 212.20 on 27th Jul 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 216.778. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.189. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.220 for a target of Rs. 195 with the stop loss of 230.
It closed at Rs. 6562.00 on 27th Jul 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6019.26. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 76.921. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.6400 for a target of Rs.6900 with the stop loss of 6200.
It closed at Rs. 6368.00 on 27th Jul 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5953.60 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.489. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs. 6350 for a target of Rs. 6700 with the stop loss of 6200.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
It was an eventful week for commodity markets. CRB continued its upward trend on weakness in dollar index and hope of stimulus in China. Fed Interest rate meeting was the key event. The greenback retreated after Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points (bps) as expected, setting the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, and also softened its language with regards to a potential U.S. recession. But the central bank also left the door open to another potential hike in September, citing strength in the labor market and relatively sticky inflation. Commodities benefitted for the same reason. Gold prices shone despite rate hike Federal Reserve, with weakness in the dollar offering more breathing room to metal markets. MCX gold traded near 59500 levels and silver prices were closed to 76000 levels. However on Thursday prices slipped on better than expected durable goods order and GDP of US. In base metals, it was only lead which saw a drop in the prices. Most base metals rose from weakness in the dollar. But gains in the red metal were limited as markets awaited more cues on stimulus measures in major importer China. Top consumer China pledged to step up policy support for the economy, focusing on boosting domestic demand. China, which has set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5%, would adjust and optimize property policies at an appropriate time. Easing concerns about metal availability in the LME system have pushed the discount for cash copper over the three-month contract to $32.25 a metric ton, the biggest in two months, compared with a premium of $31 a month ago. Oil prices rose as investors focused on expectations of tighter supplies from top oil producers, helping reverse earlier losses that were driven by worries that the hike in interest rates by the U.S. will hurt demand. The promise of economic stimulus in China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, also lent support to the market. Oil prices have rallied for four weeks, buoyed by signs of tighter supplies, largely linked to output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as Chinese authorities' pledges to shore up the world's second-biggest economy. Natural gas prices were unable to breach its resistance on lower cooling demand.
In agri counter, jeera prices cooled down whereas turmeric saw multi year highs. Turmeric prices augmented on fall in area and slower sowing progress is likely to support firmness in prices. Area has already dropped and now yield is also likely to fall due to adverse weather condition in major producing states. Jeera prices saw fall on lowering festive and wedding demand and improved global supply outlook with commencement of new arrivals in Turkey in Aug is likely to keep prices down in near term. Dhaniya prices strengthened too due to heavy rainfall in major producing states in central and northern India. Increased export enquires will also cap the downfall. India exported about 35.4 thousand tonnes during time period of Apr- May’23 against the 6.23 thousand tonnes of previous year. Cotton oil seeds futures and cotton futures due to report of crop damage in Gujarat due to excess rainfall. Sowing has been delayed in Maharashtra and Telangana due to monsoon concerns. Improved demand of cotton yarn.
Physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (gold ETFs) are an important source of gold demand, with institutional and individual investors using them as part of well-diversified investment strategies.
Physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds experienced net outflows in June 2023. The collective holdings of global gold ETFs fell by 56 tonnes ($3.7 billion) to 3,422 tonnes, with their total assets under management reaching $211 billion, down 4 per cent month-on-month. By the end of June collective holdings of global gold ETFs had fallen to their lowest since February, 10% lower y/y and 13% below October 2020’s record of 3,919t.
The WGC noted that “the early June strong equity market performance in key markets likely shifted focus away from risk-off assets such as gold.” Yet despite last month’s decline, gold ETFs experienced net inflows in year 2023. Demand was propped up by concerns over stability of the banking system and a possible global recession.
WGC added that “the majority of outflows occurred when the gold price dropped during the second half of the month amid hawkishness from major central banks in the face of obstinate inflationary pressure.”>
However, because to significant European outflows in the first two months of the year, gold ETF demand for the first four months of 2023 remained negative at -13 tonnes, a net outflow of US$654 million.
Fed interest rates & gold holding
The Fed began its latest rate-hiking cycle in March 2022, just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had threatened global stability and sent gold prices soaring. Continued gold price strength sustained positive flows into physically-backed gold ETFs. But when the Fed committed itself to a sustained program of rate increases to bring down inflation, gold prices did in fact tumble. From highs near $2,000 per ounce in March, gold prices entered a volatile downtrend for much of 2022 until hitting a triple bottom around $1,630 over the fall months. Moving into 2023, gold prices began to recover, reaching the level of $1,900 per ounce in mid-January alongside signs of moderating inflation and expectations for a slowdown in Fed rate hikes.
The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-of-a-percentage point on July 2023, setting the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, and highlighting that another 25 bps hike could be possibly at the September meeting based on a wide range of data. Powell’s hawkish statements pushed investor rate expectations steadily higher. Gold ETF holdings tend to rise when interest rates are rising. This is because gold becomes more attractive as an investment when the opportunity cost of holding cash decreases. However, historical data shows no significant correlation between rising interest rates and falling gold prices.
Considering the pace of interest rate increases – as well as how long it has been sustained, Investor may invest in gold etf amid rising inflation and rising interest rates. With rising gold prices and lingering risks in developed economies, investors turned to Gold ETFs.
The dollar index has been showing strength, approaching 102 and poised for a second consecutive week of gains. This rise has been supported by robust US economic data, which has reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Notably, the latest data revealed that the US economy expanded by an impressive 2.4% in the second quarter, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% growth. Additionally, there have been positive developments in durable goods orders and jobless claims, with the latter reaching multi-month lows. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve enacted an anticipated 25 basis point rate hike, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of further rate increases. However, he emphasized that the central bank will adopt a "data-dependent" approach in making decisions about future hikes. As a result of these developments, the dollar has strengthened against various currencies, although it experienced fluctuations when paired with the yen due to the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-easy monetary policy. Looking specifically at the dollar-rupee pair, it is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, with the present sloping trend line of the pattern situated near 81.70 and 82.80. Moreover, the 200-day exponential moving average aligns with the lower trend line of the pattern around the 81.70 level. During this week, the USD/INR pair found support near the 200-day EMA at 81.70 and subsequently bounced back above the 82 mark. Additionally, a positive crossover occurred between the 21-day and 5-day moving averages around 82.07, indicating a favorable trend. Considering the current scenario and the revived positive momentum from the 200-day EMA, it is anticipated that the USD/INR pair will likely continue its upward movement towards 82.50 and potentially reach 82.70. Despite the consolidation within the symmetrical triangle chart pattern, the prevailing strength of the dollar index and the positive momentum of the USD/INR pair suggest that the higher range of the pattern might be breached.
USDINR (JUL) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 82.23. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.1 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82 levels, while resistance is expected near 82.9 levels.
One can buy near 82.2 for the target of 83 with the stop loss of 81.8
GBPINR (JUL) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.6. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.51 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 107 levels, while resistance is expected near 103.5 levels.
One can sell near 105.5 for the target of 104.5 with the stop loss of 106.
EURINR (JUL) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.78. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.94 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89.55 levels, while resistance is expected near 91.2 levels.
One can sell near 90.5 for the target of 89.5 with the stop loss of 91
JPYINR (JUL) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 58.55. However, the pair is in neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.6 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 57.83 levels, while resistance is expected near 60.1 levels.
One can buy near 59 for the target of 60 with the stop loss of 58.5
Netweb Technologies started off first day first trade with a whopping 88 percent premium on July 27, which was largely on expected lines given the strong IPO subscription numbers and the prevailing optimism in equity markets. The public issue of Netweb Technologies had seen overwhelming response from investors, subscribing 90.36 times during July 17-19. Qualified institutional buyers showed the highest ever support to the IPO, buying 228.91 times the reserved portion. High networth individuals bought 81.81 times the allotted quota, and retail investors 19.15 times, while the portion set aside for employees was subscribed 53.13 times. The equity market conditions are also positive with the benchmark indices gaining more than 17 percent from March lows, backed by foreign inflow, encouraging global cues, and positive corporate earnings. Netweb Technologies intends to leverage its presence in the fast growing HCS (high end computing solutions) industry with focus on developing refined, customised computing systems to address the high-end computational requirements of customers. The high-end computing solutions provider has raised Rs 631 crore via public issue that was comprised a fresh issue of Rs 206 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 425 crore by promoters. The price band for the offer was Rs 475-500 per share.
TVS Supply Chain Solutions, part of TVS Mobility Group, has received capital markets regulator Sebi's go-ahead to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 750 crore and an Offer for Sale (OFS) of over 2 crore equity shares by promoters and existing shareholders, according to the draft red herring prospectus. Those offering shares in the OFS include Omega TC Holdings Pte. Ltd, Tata Capital Financial Services Ltd, Mahogany Singapore Company Pte. Ltd, TVS Motor Company Ltd, Kotak Special Situations Fund, Andrew Jones, Ramalingam Shankar, Ethirajan Balaji, Dinesh Narayan, and Sargunaraj Ravichandran. The company, which filed fresh preliminary IPO papers in April, obtained its observation letter on July 18, an update with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) showed . Going by the draft papers, proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilised for payment of debt availed by the company and its subsidiaries -- TVS LI UK and TVS SCS Singapore -- and for general corporate purposes. TVS Supply Chain Solutions (TVS SCS), an integrated supply chain solutions provider, is present in over 25 countries. TVS SCS is promoted by the erstwhile TVS Group and is now part of the TVS Mobility Group, which has four business verticals -- supply chain solutions; manufacturing; auto dealership, and aftermarket sales and service. JM Financial, Axis Capital, J P Morgan India, BNP Paribas, Edelweiss Financial Services, and Equirus Capital are the book-running lead managers to the IPO. In addition, the capital markets regulator has given its go-ahead to Pyramid Technoplast to mobilise funds through an initial share-sale. The company filed draft IPO papers in March.
Singapore-based private equity firm Clermont Group-backed non-banking finance company SBFC Finance has decided to launch its initial public offering (IPO) for subscription on August 3. The company plans to raise Rs 1,025 crore from the offering. The offer comprises a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 600 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of Rs 425 crore by the promoters. Arpwood Partners Investment Advisors LLP, Arpwood Capital and Eight45 Services LLP are selling shares in the issue. The public issue will close on August 7. The anchor book will open for bidding for a day on August 2. The price band for the offer will be announced by the company in the coming days. SBFC Finance, which has reserved Rs 10.25 crore worth of shares for its employees in the IPO, has already mopped up Rs 150 crore via private placement of 2.72 crore equity shares before filing the red herring prospectus with the Registrar of Companies. As a result, the fresh issue size has been reduced by Rs 150 crore to Rs 600 crore. Proceeds from the IPO will be utilised for augmenting the capital base to meet future capital requirements arising out of the growth of business and assets, the company said. SBFC Holdings Pte Ltd, Clermont Financial Pte Ltd, Arpwood Capital, Arpwood Partners Investment Advisors LLP and Eight45 Services LLP are the corporate promoters of the company and hold a combined 80.48 percent stake in the company. The MSME-focused NBFC recorded Rs 149.74 crore profit in FY23, which is a significant growth from Rs 64.8 crore in the previous year. Revenue from operations during the year also grew 38.5 percent to Rs 732.8 crore compared to the previous year. Net interest income, the difference between the interest earned from loans and the interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities, increased by 49 percent to Rs 379 crore during the financial year gone by, against Rs 254 crore in the previous year, with net interest margin falling 7 bps YoY to 9.32 percent.
Real estate player Suraj Estate Developers has filed fresh preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise Rs 400 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). Before this, the Mumbai-based realty film filed its draft IPO papers in March 2022. The IPO is entirely a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 400 crore with no offer for sale (OFS) component, according to the fresh draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Proceeds to the tune of Rs 285 crore would be used towards the payment of debt availed by the company and its subsidiaries -- Accord Estates and Iconic Property Developers -- and up to Rs 35 crore for the acquisition of land, the remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. The company, which operates in both residential and commercial real estate, has completed 42 projects, spanning a developed area of over 1.05 million square feet in Mumbai as on May 2023. Additionally, it has 11 ongoing projects and 21 upcoming projects. Suraj Estate Developers clocked a profit of Rs 32 crore in FY23 against Rs 26.50 crore in the preceding fiscal, registering a rise of 21 per cent, and its revenue rose to Rs 306 crore in Fy23 from Rs 273 crore in the previous year, up 12 per cent. ITI Capital Ltd and Anand Rathi Advisors Ltd are the book-running lead managers to the issue.
Fedbank Financial Services, promoted by Federal Bank, has refiled its draft papers with market regulator SEBI to raise funds through an IPO. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of Rs 750 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) aggregating up to 7.03 crore equity shares by the promoter and other selling shareholders. Under the OFS, 1.64 crore equity shares will be offloaded by Federal Bank and 5.38 crore shares by True North Fund VI LLP. Fedbank Financial is one of the five private bank-promoted NBFCs in India. It focuses on catering to the MSMEs and emerging self-employed individuals sector. The company proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the fresh issue towards augmenting Tier–I capital base to meet its future capital requirements, arising out of the growth of business and assets. A part of the proceeds will also be used for meeting offer expenses. The company and the selling shareholders may, in consultation with the book-running lead managers, consider a private placement of specified securities, or through such other route, of up to 20% of the fresh issue for cash consideration aggregating up to Rs 150 crore prior to a filing of the draft papers.
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Quant Mutual Fund has launched Quant Manufacturing Fund, an open ended equity scheme following manufacturing theme. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on August 8. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty India Manufacturing Index. The scheme will be managed by Sandeep Tandon, Ankit Pande, Sanjeev Sharma, and Vasav Sahgal. The primary objective of the scheme is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity-related instruments of companies that follow the manufacturing theme. The scheme will invest 80-100% in equity and equity related instruments of companies with manufacturing theme, 0-20% in other equity and equity-related instruments of companies with other than manufacturing theme, 0-20% in debt and money market instruments, 0-20% in foreign securities including ADRs / GDRs / foreign equity and debt securities and overseas ETFs, and 0-10% in units issued by REITs & InvITs. The scheme will invest at least 80% in manufacturing industries such as automobiles, auto ancillary, chemicals & pharmaceuticals, capital goods, engineering , electrical & electronics, food & beverages, textiles, consumer durables, building materials, defense & aerospace, and industrials. The scheme will invest in companies with strong profit potential from production & exports, on the back of technology & automation, including those benefiting from the government’s ‘Make in India,’ PLI, and export incentives.
HDFC mutual fund has launched the HDFC Charity Fund for Cancer Cure, a fixed maturity scheme launched in collaboration with the Indian Cancer Society (ICS) to contribute to the treatment of underprivileged cancer patients. The scheme will have a tenure of 1,196 days. The NFO is currently open for subscription and it will close on August 8. “The Scheme enables investors to donate part of the income generated to the Indian Cancer Society to support the treatment of underprivileged cancer patients. The noble mission is to make a meaningful impact on the lives of those fighting this formidable battle. Together, as we invest in both financial growth and human well-being, we can create a future where hope and healing become accessible to all,” said Navneet Munot, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, HDFC Asset Management Company. The scheme will offer investors the flexibility to choose either a 50% or 75% contribution of Income Distribution cum Capital Withdrawal (IDCW) to be donated to the ICS. HDFC AMC will match donations with an equal amount directly contributed to ICS (subject to a limit of Rs 16 crore per financial year). The AMC has waived all investment management and advisory fees for this scheme, ensuring that the maximum benefit goes towards supporting cancer patients in need.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced the launch of ICICI Prudential Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF. The scheme aims to provide returns that correspond to the returns provided by Nifty 200 Quality 30 Index, subject to tracking errors. The selection universe for this index is the Nifty 200 Index. The Quality score for each company is determined based on Return on Equity (ROE), financial leverage (Debt/Equity Ratio) and earning (EPS) growth variability analysed during the previous five years. 30 companies with higher profitability, lower leverage and more stable earnings are selected to be part of the index. The stock weight is capped at the lower of 5% or 5 times the weight of the stock in the index based on free float market capitalization, the fund house said. Chintan Haria, Head Investment Strategy, ICICI Prudential AMC, said, “ICICI Prudential Nifty 200 Quality 30 ETF is a smart beta offering based on quality as a factor. The offering provides investors with an opportunity to diversify equity investments across various sectors and in companies having strong cash flows. The index has historically provided better dividend yield than Nifty 200 TRI and Nifty 50 TRI.”
UTI Mutual Fund has launched UTI Balanced Advantage Fund, an open-ended dynamic asset allocation fund, investing in a diversified portfolio of equity and fixed income. The portfolio of the scheme will be dynamically managed, based on valuation and fundamentals driven by in-house proprietary asset allocation model. The New Fund Offer opens for subscription today and it will close on August 4. The scheme aims to provide long-term capital appreciation and income by investing in a dynamically managed portfolio of equity and debt instruments. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the scheme will be achieved. The scheme does not guarantee/ indicate any returns. “For most investors who invest through mutual funds, the challenge is in handling the volatility. They all know the reasons why they should invest in equity and wish to participate in wealth creation through equities but don’t quite know how to handle the volatility that accompanies the journey. Investors need an asset allocation framework and a rebalancing mechanism,” said Vetri Subramaniam, CIO, UTI AMC.
Bajaj Finserv Asset Management has announced the launch of its first equity scheme, the Bajaj Finserv Flexi Cap Fund, an open-ended equity scheme that will invest across market capitalizations, based on a ‘MEGATRENDS’ strategy. Investors can benefit from the strongest megatrends that their investment experts spot across sectors, themes, market capitalization and geographies. Rather than looking at past performance, the Bajaj Finserv AMC investment team looks at megatrends that are monetizable, have a large scope and long-term impact, the fund house said. The scheme will be a true to label fund in its category with a potential high active share component. It will focus on targeting future profit pool industries and will have a relatively low turnover ratio. The scheme is being managed by Nimesh Chandan, Chief Investment Officer, and Sorbh Gupta (Equity portion) and Siddharth Chaudhary (Debt portion). The fund will be benchmarked against S&P BSE 500 TRI.
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