Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, Global stock markets moved little higher after lower-than- expected private payrolls data stirred hopes that the American economy was likely cooling and the Federal Reserve might be persuaded to modify its aggressive stance on interest rates and inflation. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back from recent highs ahead of the closely watched employment report and what it could indicate about the possible trajectory of interest rates. Meanwhile, Euro zone inflation came in at 8.1% for the month, according to preliminary figures, up from April’s record high of 7.4% and above expectations of 7.8%. In the month of May, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde had already indicated she was anticipating a rate rise at the central bank’s meeting in July. Global growth in factory activity slowed in May as China's strict coronavirus curbs and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains and dampened demand, adding to woes for businesses already struggling with surging raw material prices.

Back at home, bulls looked active after high-frequency data like GST collection and PMI have shown a good start to FY23. Besides, the collections of more than Rs 1.4 trillion for the fourth straight quarter and strong auto sales in May also gave strength to the market. India's services activity in May expanded at the strongest rate in over 11 years, according to the S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index. The Services PMI rose to 58.9 in May from 57.9 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction. Since the economic variables are moving too fast, markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to keep following the stock-centric approach for better investment opportunities. Going forward, a lot will depend on central banks’ policy actions both at local and global.

Back at home, CRB tried to close near recent high of 344, made 11 years high despite rise in dollar index and US treasury. However, dollar index weekly gain wiped out in the later part of the week. Crude recovered its weekly loss to some extent China's easing of some COVID-19 lockdowns has added to price support, but a strengthening U.S. dollar limited the black liquid's gains. Crude prices also jumped on doubts that producers belonging to OPEC+ can hike their crude output enough to make up for lost supply from Russia. Crude oil can trade between wide ranges of 8600-9400. Bullion counter saw lower level buying. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 50400-52000 and 61000-64000 respectively. RBA Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade and Employment Change of Canada, GDP Growth of Japan, RBI Interest Rate Decision, GDP Growth Rate, ECB Press Conference and ECB Interest Rate Decision of Euro Area, Inflation Rate of China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel of US etc are some triggers scheduled this week for commodities, which should be taken care.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • India’s economy grew 4.1 per cent year-on-year in the January-March period of 2021-22 (Q4 FY22), even as the rate of growth slowed sequentially for a third straight quarter with the Omicron wave-induced restrictions and high commodity prices weighing on economic activities.
  • India's dominant services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 11 years in May on strong demand, although inflationary pressures touched new highs, restricting optimism and weighing on consumers' pocketbooks, a private survey showed. The S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 58.9 in May from 57.9 in April, its highest since April 2011 and comfortably beating the Reuters poll expectation of 57.5.
Cement
  • UltraTech board had approved a new capital expenditure (capex) plan of Rs 12,886 crore, as the firm braces for competition in the sector. As per the management, the capex would be to increase capacity by 22.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) through brownfield and greenfield projects. This would entail setting up integrated and grinding units as well as bulk terminals across the country, with commercial production from these units going on stream in a phased manner by financial year 2024-25 (FY25).
Automobile/ Auto Ancillaries
  • Mahindra and Mahindra will incur a capital expenditure of Rs 15,300 crore in the auto, farm equipment, and electric vehicle (EV) businesses over 2022-24, the firm said. Of this, it has already pumped in Rs 3,200 crore in FY22, while the remaining Rs 12,100 crore will be done during FY23 and FY24. This is significantly higher than the capex done by the company in the recent past.
  • JK Tyre and Industries has planned a capital expenditure of Rs 1,100 crore till next financial year. The tyre maker plans to invest in capacity expansion as well as regular maintenance of the existing infrastructure.
Capital Goods
  • Va Tech Wabag has secured a design, build, operate order for the 50 MLD (expandable to 100 MLD) Mamelles Sea Water Desalination Project from Societe Nationale Des Eaux du Senegal (SONES), the national water company of Senegal worth about Euro 146 million.
Information Technology
  • Coforge has partnered with Sysdig, the unified cloud and container security leader, to enable customer success in the new multi-cloud environment by offering visibility across cloud & container workloads from source to run. With Sysdig, Coforge provides container services to help organizations reduce risk and deliver reliable cloud applications by addressing the essential security use cases of running Kubernetes and containers in multicloud production environments.
Oil & Gas
  • Indian Oil Corporation is looking to transport fuel to Tripura through Bangladesh as the rail network has been totally snapped due to massive landslides in Assam.
Miscellaneous
  • Welspun Enterprises Ltd (WEL) has received its single-largest order of Rs 4,636 crore from civic body Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for the Dharavi Waste water Treatment facility. This takes the outstanding order book of the company to around Rs 12,500 crore, of which Rs 6,500 crore is in the water sector and the balance Rs 6,000 crore is from the road sector.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US factory orders edged up by 0.3 percent in April after jumping by a downwardly revised 1.8 percent in March. Economists had expected factory orders to advance by 0.7 percent compared to the 2.2 percent surge originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims fell to 200,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 210,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US labor productivity plunged by 7.3 percent compared to the previously reported 7.5 percent nosedive. Economists had expected the slump in productivity to be unrevised.
  • Eurozone producer prices advanced 37.2 percent on a yearly basis in April, faster than the 36.9 percent rise in March. Nonetheless, this was slower than the expected rate of 38.5 percent. The 99.2 percent increase in energy prices and 25.1 percent rise in intermediate goods prices pushed producer price inflation to a new record.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LIMITED
CMP: 401.25
Target Price: 501
Upside: 25%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 525.70/297.80
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 8187.11
  • EPS (Rs.) 22.50
  • P/E Ratio (times) 17.83
  • P/B Ratio (times) 17.58
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.64
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The Company presently has ten sugar factories located in Uttar Pradesh (India) having an aggregate sugarcane crushing capacity of 77,500 TCD, distillery and co-generation operations of 560 KLPD and 175.7 MW (Saleable) respectively.
  • BCML is one of the most efficient integrated sugar producers in the country. The Company has grown its capacity by well-planned capacity expansion projects and the acquisition of existing companies.
  • On the development front, the company has completed the expansion of its Gularia distillery from 160 KLPD to 200 KLPD. The greenfield/brownfield expansion programmes for distillery at Maizapur and Balrampur are on track, expected to commence production at the expanded capacity from November 2022. Progress is satisfactory for the modernization and upgradation of sugar factories and expected to come on stream from November 2022.
  • On full capacity, the company should be able to deliver about 35 crore liters of ethanol, including 5 crore liters from grain and about 2 crore liters ENA. It is also making healthy progress in the modernization and updation of some sugar factories, and certain refineries also coming up. And all its expansion program, which were envisaged earlier are on time.
  • According to the management of the company, Government’s growth ambition to achieve 20% blending of ethanol in petrol by 2025 would give good financial growth to the company and also support Soft loans through banks for encouraging new distillery capacities or the augmentation of existing capacities, which will facilitate higher ethanol production and reduce surplus sugar through the diversion of B-heavy molasses and direct cane juice/sugar syrup to ethanol.
  • During Q4FY22, its revenue witnessed growth of 25.5% to Rs.1279.60 crore led by 21.7% growth in sugar segment sales and 45% growth in distillery sales. Net profit increased 2.1% to | 240.5 crore with small reduction in interest cost & lower provision for taxation.

Risk

  • Seasonal nature of the industry
  • Delay in execution

Valuation

The company has strong business outlook with a favourable mix of ethanol towards B-heavy/juice (feedstock) coupled with higher sugar realisations and good operating margins. Moreover, according to the management of the company, the sugar industry is on the cusp of a mega transformation and has emerged as a potent driver of clean energy, driving India's shift to renewable energy faster than ever. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.501 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/E of 15.75x and FY23 EPS of Rs.31.83.

P/B Chart

SUPRAJIT ENGINEERING LIMITED
CMP: 329.00
Target Price: 415
Upside: 26%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 478.00/266.70
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 4552.91
  • EPS (Rs.) 12.49
  • P/E Ratio (times) 26.34
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.20
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.54
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Suprajit Engineering is India's largest automotive cable and halogen bulb maker with an annual global capacity of 400 million cables and 110 million halogen bulbs. The company's customer list includes most Indian automotive majors. It also exports to many marquee global customers.
  • The company has acquired Light Duty Cable (LDC) business unit from Kongsberg Automotive ASA. With this acquisition, all the four LDC related entities are now 100% owned stepdown subsidiaries of Suprajit through Suprajit USA, Inc. The transition also involves the transfer of global sales and engineering expertise related to the LDC business located in US, Germany, France, Sweden, and the UK, to the company. The Company expects sales to improve from $85 million (approx. Rs. 659 Crore) in CY 2021 to $100 million (approx. Rs. 776 crore) in next couple of years and EBITDA margin to improve from 8% to double digit. It will also acquire actuation technology, making electromagnetic actuators (EMA).
  • The recent launch of Suprajit Technology Centre (STC) will further strength the company`s positioning in new product launches. The commercial launches of certain products developed are ongoing and in line with the long-term plans of the Company. STC has applied for 15 patents for products and processes. It has developed a range of new products which would make significant impact on the future growth and derisk plans of the Company. It focuses on 2W EV and Agri-tech. Products are priced higher than the company’s core products.
  • On the expansion front, the planned expansion at Narasapura, near Bangalore, will be completed in the coming months. The new facility for comprehensive aftermarket cable operations at Bommasandra Industrial area, Bangalore, is progressing as per the plan. Phoenix Lamps Division (PLD) completed its expansion during this quarter, to augment certain capacities. The capex for the current year, in India, is estimated at Rs.140 crores.

Risk

  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Chip shortages

Valuation

The company offers full global product range in control cable and Halogen bulb. Recent acquisition of LDC business unit has further strengthened its global presence. Since inception the company has continuously widened its product offering across different segments thus de-risking its business. From 2wheeler player, the company offers products to automotive, 2wheeler, aftermarket and non-automotive. Capacity expansion and setting up of STC for offering premium products auger well for the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.415 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on three year average P/Ex of 26.11x and FY23 EPS of Rs.15.89.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

PETRONET LNG LIMITED (PETRONET)

The stock closed at Rs 226.50 on 03rd June, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 190.25 on 24th February, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 252.20 on 08th June, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 215.65

Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows. Apart from this, it is forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Last week, the stock had closed on verge of breakout of pattern along with high volumes which indicates bias is aggressive for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 220-222 levels for the upside target of 255-260 levels with SL below 208 levels.

UNITED BREWERIES LIMITED (UBL)

The stock closed at Rs 1519.10 on 03rd June, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1238.45 on 02nd June, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1785.80 on 09th November, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1494.19

As we can see on charts that the stock is consolidating in the wide range of 1300-1600 levels and forming a “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern on weekly charts which is considered to be bullish. Last week, the stock ended with over 3% gains, conclusively closed above the previous few weeks’ high along with decent volumes and also managed to close above the same. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD, they are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1495-1505 levels for the upside target of 1700-1740 levels with SL below 1310 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets remained highly volatile in the week gone by as Nifty ended the week with gains of nearly 1.40% while Banking index pared all of its gains in Friday's session to close the week with loss of nearly 1%. The benchmark index was pulled down by Banking, Cement, Auto and Metal counter as traders looked keen to book profit during weekend session. Options data suggest that Nifty is likely to remain under pressure in upcoming week as far it is trading below 16800 levels, as call writers are holding nearly 45 lakh shares of open interest at 16800 CE. On downside, 16500 level is likely to provide immediate support to Nifty. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 18.38% while that for put options closed at 19.79%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 20.32%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.36. Technical charts suggest that index is likely to remain volatile in upcoming week as well and may consolidate in broader range. However, bias is likely to remain in favour of bulls with stock specific action need to be on radar.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 02nd June, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Last week the weakness continued in the spices counter as demand for exports have not been improving while the reports of normal monsoon also contributed to some price pressure. Turmeric (Jun) traded within the range of the previous week range and taking good support near 7850 levels while the resistance is seen at 8200 levels. We expect it to trade sideways to lower if it sustains below its support levels. Moreover, reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India are pressurizing the prices. As per the latest export figures, turmeric exports in Mar 2022 jumped higher 27.4% y/y at 15750 tonnes vs 12, 360 tonnes while for the period of Jan-Mar 2022, exports are only down by 1.15% y/y at 36,750 tonnes. In FY 2021/22, exports were down 16.7% y/y at 1.53 lakh tons but higher by 10% compared with 5-year average.

Jeera (Jun) continued to close negative for the third consecutive week as selling pressure continue due to lack of export demand. The support is seen at 20615 levels while resistance is at 21900 levels. We expect the prices to trade sideways to lower towards 19300 if it sustain below support levels. Currently, prices are higher by 53.2% y/y on lower crop estimates. Traders expect jeera production in 2021/22 sharply lower at 5.0-6.0 mln bags (1 bag = 55 kg) from 8.0-8.5 mln bags the previous year. As per govt data, jeera exports in Mar 2022 down by 58.5% Y/Y at 14,600 tonnes compared to 35,160 tonnes while exports for FY 2021/22 is also down by 27% Y/Y at 2.16 lt compared to 2.98 lt last year.

Dhaniya (Jun) traded in a very narrow range last week after it took support at 9-week low levels of 10800. We witnessed an indecision candle forming last week with resistance at 11500 levels. We expect prices to trade sideways in the range of support and resistance due to balanced supply demand situation. he processors and traders are buying as per their requirements as market prices ruling higher by 63% y/y and up 27% since January due to lower crop estimates. As per govt data, coriander exports in Mar 2022 down 28.7% y/y at 4180 tonnes compared to 5862 tonnes last year while for FY 2021/22 export volume is down by 15.2% at 48,615 tonnes Vs 57,350 tonnes last year but 9.5% higher compared to 5-year average.

BULLIONS

Gold prices scaled a one-month peak , riding on a weaker U.S. dollar that has also put billion on track for a third straight weekly gain. The dollar edged lower, making greenback-priced bullion more attractive for overseas buyers. Signs of an economic crisis can be supportive for gold demand, as investors consider it a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening monetary policy beyond the half-percentage point interest rate hikes each of its next two meetings, two policymakers signalled. Investors remained on edge as some fear that the pace of US monetary tightening could throw the world’s largest economy into a recession. Higher short-term U.S. interest rates increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, which bears no interest. But higher short-term U.S. interest rates increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, which bears no interest. Gold prices are being supported by global growth worries, inflation concerns and Russia- Ukraine fighting. But it is being countered dollar strength and higher US bond yields. Some upbeat US economic data and hawkish comments from Fed officials has rekindled market expectations that Fed may continue with monetary tightening despite growth risks. ETF outflows also showed weaker investor interest in gold. Gold may remain stuck in a range amid mixed factors. However, with US dollar on a firmer side, the general bias may be on the downside. Mild recovery in gold can be seen as long as the support of $1848 remains undisturbed. A direct drop below the same would trigger further weakness. Ahead in the week prices may continue to witness both side movements, and possibly range would be 50200-52000 levels. Silver may also witness same kind of movement where it may trade in the range of 59800- 65000.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices elevated after U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected amid high demand for fuel, shrugging off OPEC+'s agreement to boost crude output to compensate for a drop in Russian production. Prices were also supported by the European Union's sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which will include an immediate ban on new insurance contracts for ships carrying Russian oil and a six month phase-out on existing contracts. Oil prices fell earlier in week as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ states agreed to bring forward oil production rises to offset Russian output losses to ease surging oil prices and inflation and smooth the way for an ice-breaking visit to Riyadh by U.S. President Joe Biden. OPEC+, agreed to raise output about 650,000 barrels per day in the next two months rather than the current 432,000 bpd. Oil has mostly marched higher for several weeks as Russian exports have been squeezed by U.S. and EU sanctions against Moscow over its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, an action Moscow calls a "special military operation." Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness buying where it may take support near 8680 and face resistance near 9250 levels. Natural gas prices continued to sharply decline amid a weekly increase in natural gas storage. Prices decline as the weather becomes cooler and demand decreases. On technical front, prices are facing resistance near 720 zones as long as prices sustain below the level, bears remains in charge. Ahead in the week, natural gas prices on MCX may continue to witness higher volatility where it may take support near 610 and could face resistance near 720 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in range with positive bias as lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in top metals consumer, China, increased the expectations of a recovery in demand, although worries about global inflation and an economic slowdown globally persisted after poor economic reading from major nations, that may weigh on industrial metals demand. Shanghai has reopened after months of coronavirus lockdown. Though it might take weeks of recovery until economic activity bounces back, the move offers some optimism for China, the largest consumer of base metals. Data showed China's factory activity contracted at a slower pace in May, as restrictions on some plants were rolled back. China will accelerate its issuance of special bonds by local governments in order to stabilize the country's slowing economy, the finance ministry said. Copper may trade in the range 795-830 levels. Global copper smelting activity ticked higher in May as a rebound in China offset declines in Europe and elsewhere, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 9.8% year-on-year to 421,742 tonnes in April, data showed. Aluminum may trade in the range of 225-245. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $172 to $177 a tonne for July-September primary metal shipments, which would be between unchanged and 2.9% higher compared with the current quarter, sources said. Zinc can trade in the range of 330-350 levels with positive bias. Shortages of zinc are particularly acute in Europe, where record-high power costs have led to production cuts. Lead can move in the range of 180-193 levels. Nickel may trade in the range of 2200-2400 levels.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Last week, Cotton (Jun) slipped to 5-week low but recovered about 6% or 2700 rupees per bale to close positive after negative closing in the previous two weeks. Now it has the support at 45900 while resistance at 48470 levels. We expect it to trade sideways in the range of support and resistance as we mostly witnessed short covering. Prices have improved in the US on forecast of above average Hurricane season this year by NOAA. Currently, Cotton prices are 95% higher y/y due to lower stocks in the country on less production and availability. Duty free imports decision and expectation of 15% increase in area of cotton in Northern India is pressurizing the cotton prices at higher levels in recent weeks.

Guar Seed (Jun) continued its negative trend last week on reports of normal monsoon by the weather department. On weekly basis, we see support at 5750 levels and expect to trade sideways to lower towards 5500, if it sustains below the support levels. In last one month, prices have slipped close to 10% but still prices are higher by about 40% y/y due to lower production, multi-year lower stocks and good export demand. The export of guar gum may support prices. Guar gum exports in Mar 22 higher by 9.4% y/y at 26,377 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 up by 39% y/y at 3.21 lt compared 2.34 lt last FY. Guargum exports down about 20% in last FY compared to previous five-year average of 4 lt exports.

Last week, Castor seed (Jun) slipped to 3-week low of 7270 but recovered about 3% to 7500 levels on good demand and lower level buying. Now the support is at weekly low of 7270 while the resistance is all-time high price of 7720 and expected to trade higher towards 8000, if it breaks its resistance level. Overall, exports demand for castor oil and meal is good despite record export prices. Normal monsoon rains and export demand from China will decide the trend in coming weeks as the stocks with the oil mills and traders are limited this year.

Mentha oil (Jun) continued its downtrend last week and witnessed third successive negative closing last week. We see support at 1020 levels while the resistance is at 1099 levels. Going forward, the prices are expected to trade lower towards 1000, if it sustains below the 1045 levels.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ALUMINIUM MCX (JUN)contract closed at Rs. 234.05 on 02nd Jun 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 274.90 on 22nd Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 229.95 on 12th May’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 240.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.007.

One can buy near Rs. 234 for a target of Rs. 245 with the stop loss of 229.

ZINC MCX (JUN)contract was closed at Rs. 336.90 on 02nd Jun’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 370.80 on 22nd Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 300.10 on 13th May’2022. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 328.22. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.108.

One can buy near Rs. 335 for a target of Rs. 355 with the stop loss of Rs 325.

DHANIYA NCDEX (JUN)contract closed at Rs. 11188.00 on 02nd Jun’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 13290.00 on 07th Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 10810.00 on 26th May’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 11399.96. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.819.

One can buy near Rs. 11200 for a target of Rs. 11800 with the stop loss of Rs. 10900.

11

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • As per IMD, average rainfall this monsoon season is expected to be 103% of the long period average.
  • India wheat procurement drops by 54% y/y until end of May to 18.65 million tonne, likely to hit 13-year low.
  • Soybean oil tariff value increased to $1866 per tonne, higher by about 49% y/y. It is highest ever tariff value declared by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs till date.
  • According to Refinitiv Eikon data, India has received 34 million barrels of discounted Russian oil since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February.
  • Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $172 to $177 a tonne for Jul-Sep primary metal shipments, which would be between unchanged and 2.9% higher compared with the current quarter.
  • As per data release, Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 9.8% year-on-year to 421,742 tonnes in April.
  • The Iranian Oil Ministry stated that over the past months its oil, condensate, and gas export revenues rose 60% y/y, boosted by crude exports moving up to some 900,000 b/d.
  • India summer sowing area up 5.1% y/y at 76 lakh ha with summer pulses area up by 17.3% to 23 lakh ha with moong and urad area increased notably.
  • Soybean demand in China in 2022 is expected to decline 6% year on year to around 90.8 mt amid ongoing COVIDrelated restrictions and persistent negative crush margins continue to take their toll.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

In the week gone by, CRB tried to close near recent high of 342 despite rise in dollar index and US treasury. Gold recovered its weekly loss, with the yellow metal caught between support from slightly lower U.S. Treasury yields and pressure from a firm dollar. It also seems likely some geopolitical risk premium has eroded as the market absorbed the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Silver followed the footsteps of gold. In energy counter, crude prices reignited while natural gas prices cooled off. Crude prices also jumped on doubts that producers belonging to OPEC+ can hike their crude output enough to make up for lost supply from Russia. Both Brent and WTI futures had an upward trend for several weeks, as European Union and U.S. sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 squeezed Russian exports. An OPEC+ technical committee trimmed its forecast for the 2022 oil market surplus by about 500,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd, according to two OPEC+ sources. In base metals, aluminum fell the most along with profit booking in crude oil from higher side. Europe's primary aluminium smelters are continuing to curtail production in the face of soaring energy costs. Copper, zinc and lead prices augmented. Global copper smelting activity ticked higher in May as a rebound in China offset declines in Europe and elsewhere. Zinc stocks in LME registered warehouses at 84,700 tonnes are at their lowest since April 2020. Cancelled warrants—metal earmarked for delivery—at 48% suggest more metal is due to leave LME warehouses.

Cotton saw sharp fall from upside as MCX limited the position limit. Furthermore, in a recent development South India Spinners Association has taken big decision to close 100% mills and stop buying of cotton which brings down the prices by 5.35% in previous few trades. Cotton sowing has started in North India and new season cotton come in market in Sep-Oct 2022. In May, USDA cut global cotton production for 2021/22 by 1.8 million bales, largely due to a drop of 1.0 million bales from India. Guar complex was down on reports of normal monsoon by IMD in its second forecast for 2022. There is normal demand and expectation of higher sowing in coming season. Castor was down on low export data. On the export front, castor meal exports are down 7.7% y/y at 25758 tonnes in Apr 2022, while overall exports in first 4-months in 2022 also lower by 4.4% at 1.26 lt vs 1.31 lt as export prices at higher by 95% y/y at $141 per ton compared to $72 last year. In spices, jeera was down. The demand for cumin seed is normal while exports have not improved as expected from China. Dhaniya trade sideways with upside bias as the processors and traders are buying as per their requirements. Turmeric was in range as the demand is normal and lack of aggressive buying by bulk traders as export demand is not picking up.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Gold Mutual Fund......... Safe and Robust Investment

Buying gold is an ancient tradition and most lovable in India as it is considered as a Status Symbol. This is an asset which has consistently increased in value and thereby considered as a safe and secure investment. To invest in gold, you either opt for the physical form or the digital form. Many investors now prefer to invest in paper or digital gold over physical one. The reason is primarily safety and convenience.

Gold Funds have emerged as one of the most popular routes for gold investments. A Gold Fund is a type of Mutual Fund that primarily invests in a Gold Exchange Traded Fund (Gold ETF) or equity stocks of companies engaged primarily in mining, refining, or marketing of gold and/or gold products. So, any increase or decrease in the price of physical gold leads to a change in the value of Gold Fund investments. One unit of gold mutual fund is equal to one gram of physical gold.

There are three processes of investing in Gold Mutual Funds:

A gold ETF specializes in Investing in a Range of gold securities. Gold Mutual Funds do not directly invest in physical gold but take the same position indirectly by Investing in Gold ETFs. Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) invest in gold of 99.50% purity, while the Gold Funds invest in gold ETFs.

Benefits of Gold Mutual Funds

  • Cost-effective: Investing in gold mutual funds is extremely affordable. In the case of Gold ETFs, the minimum investment amount would be equivalent to the current price of 1 gram of gold. This might not be affordable for some investors. But you can invest in gold mutual funds with just Rs 100 per month.
  • Demat account not compulsory: A Demat account is mandatory for investments in Gold ETFs, while one can invest in Gold Mutual Funds even without a Demat account. The Gold Mutual Funds allow Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).
  • Easier to redeem: When you sell physical gold, the jeweller will charge 1%-2% making charges. There are other wastages that reduce the overall price of your jewellery. All this reduces your selling price by 2%-2.5%. In case of Gold Funds, one can redeem only at the end of the day and would have to apply to the Fund house for fresh buying.
  • Purity of Gold: When you buy physical gold, you rely 100% on your jeweller regarding its purity. This problem is eliminated in gold mutual funds. The fund manager only buys gold with 99.5% purity and a certificate of authenticity from World Gold Council is provided with each unit of physical gold.
  • Tax Benefits: Gold mutual funds are taxed based on Capital gains made and holding period. If you are holding the fund for less than 3 years, then the capital gains will be taxed as per your income tax slab rate.

Top 10 Gold Mutual funds in India

  • Axis Gold Fund.
  • Kotak Gold Fund.
  • SBI Gold Fund.
  • HDFC Gold Fund
  • Aditya Birla Sun Life Gold Fund
  • Nippon India Gold Savings
  • ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund
  • Quantum Gold Savings Fund.

So being a secure investment option, gold mutual fund gives investors an opportunity to invest in a wider range of low-risk shares and stocks of gold manufacturers and miners to rebalance their portfolio.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee largely remained flat this week as both tailwinds and headings for the rupee remained narrow. A hawkish tone from RBI supported the rupee while rising oil prices triggered concerns over the widened current account deficit which kept the rupee lower. However, mixed positive risk sentiment helped most currencies strengthen relative to the USD after the latest private payrolls disappointed for the dollar to retreat. Technically USDINR will trade on an upward bias with weekly support around 77.25 while resistance still hovering around 77.90 on spot. The major euro has remained updated against the US dollar as FX markets begin to look to next week's European Central Bank meeting. Recent ECB comments tended toward the hawkish side with traders now positioning for an ECB tightening posture. We will maintain a negative stance on EURINR in the coming days while sterling drifted lower after speculation has begun over the number of no-confidence motions against Boris Johnson. The process within the conservative party is anonymous, with war gaming beginning on the outcome of a possible no-confidence vote. We are eyeing GBPINR to trade on downside bias with steep resistance around 99.40 levels.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (JUN)contract closed at 77.7800 on 02-June-22. The contract made its high of 77.9250 on 31-May-22 and a low of 77.7025 on 01-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 77.5028.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.24.One can buy at 77.50 for the target of 78.50 with the stop loss of 77.00.

GBP/INR (JUN) contract closed at 97.6400 on 02-May-22. The contract made its high of 98.4000 on 30-May-22 and a low of 97.0400 on 02-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 97.3624.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.16. One can sell at 98.00 for a target of 97.00 with the stop loss of 98.50.

News Flows of last week

03rd JUN India Services Growth Strongest in Over 11 Years
02nd JUN OPEC and allies to raise production by additional 216,000 barrels per day
02nd JUN US Private sector employment rises by 128K in May vs. 300K expected
01st JUN US ISM Manufacturing PMI rises to 56.1 in May vs. 54.5 expected
01st JUN Euro zone April unemployment rate 6.8% vs 6.8% expected
01st JUN Bank of Canada hikes interest rates by 50 bps to 1.50% as expected
31th MAY Euro zone Preliminary Inflation surges 8.1% YoY in May vs. 7.7% expected
31th MAY India's GDP growth in Q4 FY22 was at 4.1% YOY, compared to 5.4% for Q3 FY22
30th MAY Russia oil embargo to be part of EU sanctions package

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (JUN) contract closed at 83.2625 on 02-June-22. The contract made its high of 83.9300 on 30-May-22 and a low of 82.9400 on 02-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 82.7787.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.55. One can buy at 83.25 for a target of 84.25 with the stop loss of 82.75.

JPY/INR (JUN) contract closed at 60.0600 on 02-June-22. The contract made its high of 61.3350 on 30- May-22 and a low of 59.0000 on 02-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 60.4858.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.96. One can sell at 60.25 for a target of 59.25 with the stop loss of 60.75.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

Aether Industries Lists at 10% premium on Stock Exchanges

Aether Industries shares listed at Rs 704 on Stock Exchanges. The initial public offering (IPO) of Aether Industries was open for subscription between May 24-26 as the company sold its shares in the range of Rs 610-642 to raise Rs 808 crore via primary route. The issue received a solid response from investors with an overall subscription of more than 6.26 times, thanks to solid bidding from institutional buyers whose portion was subscribed 17.6 times and HNI allocation was booked 2.5 times. The specialty chemical manufacturer came with its Rs 808 crore IPO last month. Of this Rs 627 crore was a fresh issue of equity shares while the remaining Rs 181 crore was an offer for sale (OFS) by existing shareholders of the company. Post issue, the promoter & promoter group shareholding will drop to 87.1 per cent from 97 per cent. Public shareholding in the company will increase to 12.9 per cent from 3 per cent earlier.

eMudhra sees tepid listing, debuts with 6% premium to issue price

eMudhra shares saw a tepid listing on June 1 as the stock debut with 6 percent premium to issue price of Rs 256 per share. The opening price was Rs 271 on the BSE, while it started off day on the National Stock Exchange at Rs 270. The public issue of eMudhra had seen a descent response from investors as it was subscribed 2.72 times during May 20-24 this year. Qualified institutional buyers bid 4.05 times the allotted quota while non-institutional investors bought 1.28 times the portion set aside for them, and retail investors have put in bids 2.61 times the reserved portion. The largest licensed Certifying Authority, which has a market share of 37.9 percent in the digital signature certificates market space in FY21, has mopped up Rs 412.8 crore through its public issue which had a price band of Rs 243-256 per share. eMudhra has presence across all the 3 segments of digital trust services, digital security solutions and paperless transformation solutions. As part of their Digital Trust Services, eMudhra issues a range of certificates including individual/ organizational certificates, SSL/TLS certificates and device certificates (used in IoT use cases) to build a digital trust backbone.

Delhivery list at 1.68% premium over IPO price

The stock opened at Rs 493, against an issue price of Rs 487 on the BSE, while the listing price on the NSE was Rs 495.20.The issue was subscribed 1.63 times when it closed for subscription on May 13. According to the NSE data, the offer received total bids for 10,17,04,080 shares as against 6,25,41,023 shares on offer. Qualified institutional buyers portion attracted 2.66 times subscription, while the category for retail individual investors was subscribed 57 percent and that for non-institutional investors 30 percent. Started in June, 2011, Delhivery is the largest fully integrated logistics services company in India by revenue and provides full range of logistics services, including delivery of express parcel and heavy goods, warehousing, supply chain solutions, cross-border Express freight services, and supply chain software. It has built a network covering every state, servicing 17,045 PIN codes or 88 percent of the 19,300 PIN codes in India. The Gurugrambased company became a unicorn – valued at over $1 billion – when it raised $413 million in a Series F round led by SoftBank Vision Fund in 2019.

Paradeep Phosphates debuts at 4.7% premium to the issue price of Rs 42 per share

Paradeep Phosphates Limited (Paradeep), the second largest private sector manufacturer of non-urea fertilizers and Di-Ammonium Phosphates in terms of sales volume, made an at par listing on the bourses today which was as per the expectations of most of the market experts. The shares of Paradeep, Orissa based fertilizer manufacturer climbed 4 percent on May 27, the listing day as was expected through the indications from the grey market where the issue did not command any significant premium. The stock opened at Rs 44, against issue price of Rs 42 on the NSE, while the listing price on the BSE was Rs 43.55. Incorporated as ‘Paradeep Phosphates Limited’ in December, 1981, the company is primarily engaged in manufacturing, trading, distribution and sales of a variety of complex fertilizers such as DAP, three grades of Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK) and other fertilizers used in crop cultivation. They are also engaged in the trading, distribution and sales of Muriate of Potash (MOP), Ammonia, Speciality Plant Nutrients (SPN) and City compost. Their fertilizers are marketed under some of the key brand names in the market ‘Jai Kisaan – Navratna’ and ‘Navratna’. As of March 31, 2021, the total annual granulation capacity of DAP and NPK production plant was approximately 1.50 MMT (million metric tonnes); the total annual installed capacity of Sulphuric acid production plant was approximately 1.30 MMT while the total annual installed capacity of Phosphoric acid production plant was 0.30 MMT.

Cogent E-Services gets Sebi's go-ahead to float IPO

Cogent E-Services Ltd has received capital markets regulator Sebi’s go-ahead to raise funds through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The initial share-sale comprises fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 150 crore and an offer for sale of up to 94.68 lakh equity shares by promoters, according to the draft red herring prospectus. Cogent E-Services, which filed its IPO papers with Sebi in February, obtained observations on May 23.In Sebi’s parlance, its observation implies the company concerned has received the approval to launch the IPO. Going by the draft papers, Cogent E-Services may also consider a private placement of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 30 crore. If such pre-IPO placement is undertaken, the fresh issue size will be reduced. Funds raised from fresh issue will be used for funding investment in IT assets for expansion and existing IT infrastructure of the company, support working capital requirements and general corporate purposes.

PayMate India files draft papers to raise Rs 1500 crore via IPO

Digital payment giant Visa and Lightbox backed PayMate India, a leading B2B payment solutions player for the Enterprise and Small And Medium Enterprises (SME) segments, has filed a draft red herring prospectus with the Securities Exchange Board of India to raise around Rs 1500 crore via an initial public offering. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of Rs 1125 crore and an offer of sale of up to Rs 375 crore from its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS consists of up to Rs 135 crore by its promoter Ajay Adiseshan, up to Rs 3.29 crore by Vishvanathan Subramanian, up to Rs 127.38 crore by Lightbox Ventures I, up to Rs 15.66 crore by Mayfield FVCI Ltd, up to Rs 2.74 crore by RSP India Fund LLC. Beyond Visa & Lightbox, the firm’s other investors include Recruit Strategic LLC, Mayfair 101, BCCL, Mayfield Fund, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers & Sherpalo Ventures. The proceeds from the issue worth Rs 77 crore will be used for investment for expanding its business into new geographies, Rs 228 crore will be used for pursuing inorganic initiatives and Rs 689 crore will be used for placing cash as collateral with its financial institution partners to improve its margins. ICICI Securities, HSBC Securities, Capital Markets India, JM Financial, and SBI Capital Markets are the lead managers of the issue.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

22

MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 02/06/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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