Global stock markets exhibited mixed performance in the first week of 2024. Some major indices remained flat or slightly positive, while others experienced modest declines. Investors digested the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, leading to re-evaluations of expectations for future interest rate cuts amidst rising US Treasury yields. Data releases played a role in the market movements. The U.S. ADP non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, coupled with a decline in jobless claims. However, the Fed minutes released on Wednesday cast doubt on bets for a March rate cut. While officials agreed that rates had peaked and would likely fall by year-end, some indicated they could remain at their current historically high levels for an extended period depending on inflation's trajectory. European markets also saw volatility as investors grappled with the European Central Bank's latest rate hike. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, marking its 10th consecutive increase and bringing the main rate to 4%. China's market witnessed a moderate decline due to lingering concerns about the tech sector crackdown, the property slump, and slowing production and consumption. Japan's market experienced volatile trading, fueled by rising bond yields, profit-taking after a strong 2023, and worries about a potential global slowdown.
Closer to home, India's stock markets started the year with a positive but nuanced performance. Foreign institutional investors remained net buyers, contributing to the bullish sentiment. Almost all the sectoral indices ended the trading session in positive territory, with Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services registering strong gains. However, Nifty Realty index saw its best single-day gain since September 2021, reaching a 15-year high. Actually, promising demand in the residential category, bolstered by healthy housing loan disbursement data released by banks, led to a significant increase in purchasing in the real estate sector. The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects report projected a 5.2% growth in South Asian GDP for 2024, driven by India's robust expansion and its position as the world's fastest-growing large economy. While the upward trend is likely to continue, some volatility is anticipated as investors monitor global economic developments and corporate earnings results.
On the commodity market front, at the start of the year, the CRB engaged in range trading, while gold briefly paused its momentum in the first week of 2024 following an eventful final week of 2023. Silver demonstrated relative weakness, closing near 72400 levels. The Dollar index rebounded from its lows, accompanied by the US treasury yield surpassing 4% midweek. Global markets faced renewed concerns about oil supply disruptions due to a confluence of headlines surrounding further tensions in the Red Sea and a full shutdown of Libya's Sharara oilfield from local protests. Crude oil futures are expected to trade within the range of 5800- 6350 levels. Gold experienced losses, and the dollar extended its rebound following the release of the minutes from the Fed's December meeting, which provided limited cues on the timing of rate trimming this year. Forecasts suggest that gold and silver are likely to remain within the ranges of 60000-64000 and 70000-75500, respectively. Key economic indicators scheduled for this week include Retail Sales in the Euro Area, CPI in Japan, as well as Retail Sales, CPI, and Trade Balance in Australia. In the United States, attention should be paid to CPI, PPI, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These data points are crucial for informed trading decisions in the commodity market.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
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DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has healthy order book and according to the management, the company continues to stay focused on execution, innovation and cost optimization to further maintain Zensar's financial performance achieved in the last few quarters. Focus on client centricity; execution excellence and a good pipeline represent sustained business growth. In Q2FY2024, the margin of the company has improved due to cost efficiency and improved utilization besides the attrition rate has also declined close to long term average. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.696 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on current P/BV of 4.07x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.171.02.
According to the management of the company, the company continue to drive growth and create differentiation by strengthening capabilities organically and through s trategic bus ines s development in newer areas like data centres, airports, heavy civil, design build B&F projects, industrial projects and manufacturing expansion. It has established a strong diversified order book, expanded global reach and robust execution capabilities, which makes it well poised to deliver profitable growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 938 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on current P/BVx of 2.53x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.371.26.
The stock closed at Rs.175.10 on 05th January, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.13305 on 30th January, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.199.30 on 03rd July, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 169.
After hitting its 52 week high of 199.30 in the month of July 2023, the stock witnessed a healthy profit booking and once again retraced back below its 200 days exponential moving average on daily time frame. Recently the stock has given a V shaped recovery from its lows and seen getting a fresh momentum above its 200 DEMA on daily time frame once again. Technically, the stock has also given a fresh move above its long term downward sloping channel with sudden spike in volumes. The prices volume action suggest for a next upside into the stock. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 172-175 levels for the upside target of 205-210 levels with SL below 155 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.7711.15 on 05th January, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.5485.70 on 20th March, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.8192 on 06th October 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.7195.
After marking its 52 week high of 8192 in October 2023, the stock retraced back towards its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts and seen consolidating in broader range of 7000-7700 since then. Last week, the stock has managed to give fresh breakout above its key resistance level of 7700 with rise in volumes as well. The breakout has been observed after a series of consolidation of more than two months. Technically stock has also formed a Double Bottom pattern around 7000 levels on broader charts which should act as strong support for the scrip moving forward. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 7700-7710 levels for the upside target of 8500-8600 levels with SL below 7200 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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Nifty and BankNifty closed flat, and profit-booking followed after reaching all-time highs, which sums up the current market action. This correction reflects cautious market attitude and follows a prolonged upward trend. In the last week, real estate, media and pharma were major gainers whereas, profit booking was noted in the auto, metal and IT stocks. In the Nifty options segment, the highest call open interest is at the strikes of 21,700 and 21,800 whereas on the put side, the highest open interest is at the 21,500 strike which was tested last week. For BankNifty, the highest call open interest is at the 48,500 strike, while the highest put open interest is at the 48,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 12.22%, while put options concluded at 13.37%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 13.33%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.55 for the week. Following a decline in indices, the India VIX, began to decline. After peaking at 16.47, the volatility index closed at 12.63. In upcoming week, Nifty is likely to trade in range of 21500 to 21800 and either side breakout can give further direction to the market.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices extended their losses with surging selling pressure in the market. Demand remained subdued as most of the millers avoided bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop in coming weeks. Weakness may remain intact in coming week as well due to sluggish demand concerns. India exported about 10.13 thousand tonnes of turmeric in Oct’23 as compared to 11.17 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Not only the milling demand has been subdued but export enquires have been bleak at prevailing rates. Downfall is likely to be limited in wake of weaker production prospects and tighter carry forward stocks. Overall production is likely to remain down as compared to current year (2023-24) year production of 10.45 lakh tonnes due to lower acreages under turmeric. Acreages shrunk in year 2024-25 that will lead to fall in production by at least by 8%-10% Y-o-Y. Turmeric Apr prices are likely to trade in range of 12700-14400 in coming weeks.
Jeera futures slipped further with surging selling pressure in line with improved crop prospects for upcoming season. Supplies increased the market as stockists offloaded their positions in wake of bumper crop prospects ahead that led to rise in monthly arrivals. Overall production is expected to be increased by 30% Y-o-Y in year 2024-25 with significant rise in area. Losses are likely to be limited as jeera prices have turned competitive as prevailing rate that led to rise in export pace in Dec’23. Jeera export tumbled to 6.2 thousand tonnes in Oct’23 against the 11.7 thousand tonnes of previous year whereas total export for year 2023-24 reported lower at 34% Y-o-Y so far in Oct’23. India imported about 15.49 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Oct’23 against the just 1.2 thousand tonnes of previous year. Short covering can be seen anytime in Jeera that may push up the prices whereas major trend is likely to remain down. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 25000-36000.
Dhaniya prices have decreased due to increased supplies in the market. Stockists are selling off their positions in response to improved crop conditions in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, facilitated by favorable weather. Despite the current downfall, the expectation is that weaker production prospects for the upcoming season will help limit the decline in dhaniya prices. Sowing activities for the year 2023 have been slower compared to the previous year, partly due to delayed kharif harvest in Gujarat. In Gujarat, only 1.20 lakh Ha was sown under dhaniya as of December 26, 2023, compared to 2.20 lakh Ha in the previous year. Robust export demand is expected to provide support to prices. India exported 3.9 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in October 2023, a significant increase from the 2.2 thousand tonnes exported in the same month the previous year. Overall exports during April-October 2023 were reported at 70.12 thousand tonnes, reflecting a substantial YoY increase of 271%. The analysis suggests that dhaniya prices are expected to trade in the range of 6700 - 7800.
Gold kicked off 2024 with its first weekly decline in four, influenced by diminishing expectations for an early U.S. interest rate cut, which bolstered the dollar and bond yields. The previous week saw gold's fall as yields and the dollar staged a rebound, with market sentiments shifting away from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index strengthened against other currencies, heading for its most substantial weekly gain since July, amplifying the cost of bullion for foreign investors. Concurrently, benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remained above 4%, poised for their most robust week since October. Minutes from the Fed's Dec. 12-13 meeting revealed officials' confidence in reining in inflation but acknowledged increased uncertainty regarding the rate cut outlook. While the Fed has hinted at rate cuts this year, the focus now shifts to the extent of these adjustments. Market expectations for Fed easing moderated, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 65% chance of a rate cut by March, down from 90% a week prior. Recent data showcased a stronger-than-expected performance in the U.S. labor market, with weekly jobless claims falling and private businesses hiring more workers than anticipated in December. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added to market apprehension, driven by deadly blasts in Iran heightening fears of broader regional conflict. On COMEX, gold prices may find support near $1990, facing resistance at $2060, while silver prices could seek support around $23.20 with resistance near $25.40. Looking ahead in MCX, Gold prices may experience corrections, finding support near 60900 and facing resistance near 63500, while silver could undergo significant volatility, with 70000 as support and 74900 as formidable resistance.
Crude oil recorded weekly gains following indications of controlled inflation from the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's mission to the Middle East to mitigate the Israel-Gaza conflict's escalation. Both benchmarks closed the first week of the year higher, nearly recovering all Thursday's losses attributed to substantial weekly builds in gasoline and distillate stocks. While the Fed's meeting minutes didn't explicitly reveal the timing of potential interest rate cuts, discussions conveyed a growing belief in inflation control and heightened concern about the risks associated with an "overly restrictive" monetary policy. Middle East developments added to supply concerns as Israeli forces planned targeted actions in the north and continued pursuit of Hamas leaders in the south. In an effort to prevent further conflict escalation, Blinken embarked on a week-long diplomatic visit to the Middle East. U.S. Energy Information Administration data indicated the highest weekly rise in gasoline stocks in over 30 years, while distillate product supplies, indicative of demand, dropped to their lowest since 1999. Looking ahead, crude prices may find support around 5770, with potential recovery toward 6350 levels. Natural gas prices surged to a five-week high due to reduced daily output and forecasts of colder weather, boosting heating demand over the next two weeks. Despite a smaller-than-expected storage draw last week, influenced by milder weather limiting heating demand, upcoming weeks may see bullish movement. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled just 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Dec. 29. Prices could find support near 220, facing potential resistance near 250.
Base metals may trade sideways with bullish bias on weaker dollar, firm Chinese demand and expectation of tightening supply. But minutes from December's policy meeting showed most policymakers agreed borrowing costs need to remain high for some time, suggesting a March cut is less likely. Recovery in China still looks patchy with the latest PMI data disappointing. China's manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in December and weakened more than expected, clouding the outlook for the country's economic recovery. Its official PMI fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 the previous month. Copper may trade in the range of 715-745 levels. Copper will hit an average of $9,000 and $10,000 per ton in 2024 and 2025 as a result of tightening supply, analysts at CITIC said in a note. With declining growth from mine output, the global refined market will turn to a growing deficit from 2025 to 2027, from a 170,000 tons surplus this year. In top consumer China, copper stocks remained thin, partly contributing to a premium of spot buying at around 200 yuan per ton this week. Chile's total copper production fell 2.34% in November on an annual basis to reach 442,800 metric tons, the country's copper commission Cochilco said. Zinc can trade in range of 215-236 levels. Lead can move in the range of 179-187 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 200-212 levels. Russia's Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, said that output at its Krasnoyarsk smelter was unaffected after a fire at an electricity transformer was extinguished. Steel long (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 42600-44500 levels with positive bias.
Cotton prices traded on weaker note tracking weakness in ICE cotton prices. ICE cotton traded down in terms of profit booking after prices rallied on preliminary planting intention reports of USDA showed. The Cotton Growers Acreage Survey for 2024 shows intentions for 10.19 million acres vs. USDA’s 2023 figure of 10.23 million. In India, cotton production is also estimated to be down due to lower yield and acreages. Cotton production may decline by around 8 per cent to 294.10 lakh bales in the 2023-24 seasons according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). Cotton Corporation of India procured about 2.14 lakh bales so far and expected to pick up in coming weeks that is likely to support firmness in prices. Cotton MCX prices are likely to trade in range of 54500-58000 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1500-1600 level. Cocud prices are expected to trade higher in wake of fall in supplies due to lower production estimates of cotton. Cocud prices are likely to trade in range of 2670-2850 levels.
Guar seed futures are expected to trade on a firm note due to a slower arrival pace in the market. Arrivals have dropped with recent fall in prices and this slowdown is likely to encourage millers to purchase at current rates, supported by improved crush margins. Anticipation of rising seasonal demand for guar meal is expected to maintain higher crushing demand for guar seed in the upcoming weeks. The overall production of guar seed has reportedly decreased by 11%-13% Year-on-Year in the year 2023-24. This reduction in production has resulted in tighter inventory levels for millers. Reports of an increase in the export of guar gum are likely to support prices. India exported about 23 thousand tonnes of guar gum, compared to 21.5 thousand tonnes in the previous year. Guar seed prices are expected to find support around 5200, with resistance seen at 5800. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to find support around 10000, with resistance observed at 11000 level.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in domestic market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil and menthol is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 7.3 thousand tonnes of menthol during Apr23-Oct’23 as compared to 8.6 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 15% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near 900 and resistance can be seen at 960 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with reduced supplies in the market. Arrivals have dropped as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. India exported about 213 thousand tonnes of castor meal during Apr’23-Oct’23 as compared to 189 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5500-6200 levels.
It closed at Rs.724.95 on 04th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.727.022. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.129. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.725 for a target of Rs.700 with the stop loss of 735.5
It closed at Rs.235.90 on 04th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.212.201. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.748. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.225 for a target of Rs.260 with the stop loss of 210.
It closed at Rs.13816.00 on 04th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.14233.288 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.405. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.13800 for a target of Rs.12500 with the stop loss of 14500.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
CRB began the year engaged in range trading. Gold experienced a brief pause in the first week of 2024 following an eventful final week of 2023. Silver showed relative weakness, closing near 72400 levels. The Dollar index rebounded from its lows, along with the US treasury yield surpassing 4% midweek. Gold prices rose slightly but hovered below key levels as the dollar rebounded on growing doubts over exactly when the Federal Reserve will begin trimming interest rates. The energy sector saw renewed buying interest, providing much-needed support for both crude oil and natural gas prices. Crude price rose on concerns over Middle Eastern supply following disruptions at an oilfield in Libya and heightened tensions regarding the Israel-Hamas war. On Wednesday, local protests forced a production shutdown at Libya's Sharara oilfield, which can produce up to 300,000 barrels per day. Base metal prices contracted amid pressure from the dollar and renewed concerns over top importer China. The red metal was hit with a fresh wave of selling after Fitch downgraded the credit ratings of four major Chinese state-backed asset managers, citing concerns over China’s property market and inconsistent government support. The move further dented sentiment towards China, raising concerns that worsening economic conditions in the country could dent its appetite for base metals.
The guar market started the year on a bearish note, while Kapas closed below the 1600 level. Cotton oil seeds cake attempted to recover from its weekly losses and ended the week within a certain range. Sunflower oil prices experienced significant volatility in both directions. Castor prices increased due to a reduction in supplies. Jeera saw a notable rise from its lows, trading in upper circuits. Overall production is expected to be increased by 30% Y-o-Y in year 2024-25 in line with rise in area under jeera. Jeera export tumbled to 6.2 thousand tonnes in Oct’23 against the 11.7 thousand tonnes of previous year whereas total export for year 2023-24 reported lower at 34% Y-o-Y so far in Oct’23 Turmeric prices declined for the second consecutive week, while Dhaniya continued its downward trend for the third consecutive week. Millers avoided bulk buying in turmeric in anticipation of commencement of new crop in coming months. Yield prospects improved due to favorable weather condition for crop growth that will keep market sentiments down. Higher stocks in dhaniya in the market led to rise in supplies in coming months that may keep prices under pressure. Guar too traded weak on tumbling crush margin in line with lowering prices of guar meal and gum; which kept buying activities subdued.
Steel industry is often considered as an economic indicator of any country’s development because of its critical role in infrastructural and overall economic development. Its production is considered as one of the top contributors to the country’s GDP, and the steel product is widely used in the construction of bridges, buildings and other infrastructure.
Steel bars, commonly called “rebar” is used in bridges, buildings, skyscrapers, homes, warehouses, and foundations to increase the strength of a concrete structure. Rebar is used in concrete to provide additional strength, as concrete is weak in tension, while steel is strong in both tension and compression.
Therefore, keeping in mind the interest of businessmen and investors and to encourage more hedging position the Multi Commodity Exchange is going to launch the launch of STEEL REBAR contracts with effect from January 15, 2024. Initially the contract expiring in the months of February 2024, March 2024, and April 2024 would be available for trading.
Contract Specifications of Steel Rebar (STEELREBAR) futures
Steel rebar production in India
India's rebar production increased 16% to almost 39 million tonnes in financial year 2022-23 (FY23) from 33 mnt in FY22. India's apparent rebar consumption rose 20% to 39 million tonnes in FY23 against 32 million tonnes in the previous fiscal. This was supported by increase in property registration in the country's largest real estate market, Mumbai. Though exports plunged last fiscal, good demand in the domestic market supported consumption and production.
Outlook
The global spread of the steel rebar market unfolds across various regions. The burgeoning construction activities, rapid urbanization, and economic development in countries like China and India fuel the demand for steel rebar in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, Asia-Pacific as the fastest-growing region, highlighting the region's pivotal role in steering the global steel rebar market to new heights. The confluence of economic growth and infrastructural development cements Asia-Pacific's position as a key player in the global steel rebar landscape.
The Indian rupee rebounded from its January 2 low of 83.3475 against the U.S. dollar, surpassing 83.15 in the first week of 2024. This strengthening trend occurred in anticipation of the crucial U.S. jobs report, set to influence expectations for the March Federal Reserve policy decision. Simultaneously, higher U.S. bond yields are expected to support USD/INR at lower levels with the 2-year U.S. yield reaching its highest point in two weeks on Thursday. The surge in U.S. yields follows a retreat in expectations for Fed rate cuts, driven by two data points indicating resilience in the U.S. labour market. As a result, the likelihood of a March rate cut has diminished. Despite the rupee's modest increase from December, other Asian currencies have experienced declines due to the shift in expectations for Fed rate cuts. Futures swaps markets are currently factoring in 140 basis points of total interest rate cuts in 2024, with an almost 70% probability of a rate cut in March, making the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data crucial for shaping market sentiments in coming days. We think rupee may edge higher next week with key resistance at 82.90 as well. On the flip side, major currencies including euro, pound and yen faced the selling pressure at the very beginning of 2024. Despite such a shift in rate expectations, we think the pound may rally further based on the narrow rates differential between the UK and the US.
USDINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.3. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.3 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.9 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.6 levels.
One can buy near 83 for the target of 83.6 with the stop loss of 82.7
GBPINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.4. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 105 levels, while resistance is expected near 106.5 levels.
One can buy near 105.25 for the target of 106.25 with the stop loss of 104.75
EURINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 91.2. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 90 levels, while resistance is expected near 91.8 levels.
One can sell near 91.25 for the target of 90.25 with the stop loss of 91.75
JPYINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 58.15. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 56.6 levels, while resistance is expected near 58.5 levels.
One can sell near 57.8 for the target of 56.8 with the stop loss of 58.3
Jyoti CNC Automation, a metal-cutting computer numerical control (CNC) machines manufacturer, has fixed the price band at Rs 315-331 per share for its Rs 1,000-crore initial public offering. The bidding for the Jyoti CNC Automation IPO will start from January 9 and will continue till January 11, while the anchor book will be opened for a day on January 8. The IPO consists of only a fresh issue component; hence the entire issue proceeds will go to the Rajkot-based company. It has reserved Rs 5 crore worth of shares for its employees and will issue those shares at a discount of Rs 15 each to the final issue price. The company that supplies diverse portfolios of CNC machines to industries such as aerospace, defence and medical enjoyed third-largest market share in India accounting approximately 10 percent of the market share in India in FY23. With two manufacturing facilities in Gujarat, and one in France, Jyoti CNC, which is also the prominent manufacturer of simultaneous 5-Axis CNC machines in India, has supplied over 8,400 CNC machines to more than 3,500 customers in India and across Asia (excluding India), Europe, North America and rest of the world in the last three fiscals. It has an order book of Rs 3,315.33 crore as of September 2023, including Rs 304.92 crore worth of orders from an entity in the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry. On the financials front, the company has turned into the black with a net profit of Rs 15.06 crore for the year ending March FY23, against loss of Rs 48.3 crore. The profitability was supported by topline, operating margin, other income and exceptional income (profit on waiver of loan).
Payment Platform One MobiKwik Systems Ltd has slashed its issue size to Rs 700 crore from Rs 1,900 crore and refiled the draft papers with the Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise funds from the public. Earlier in July 2021, the company had filed the draft red-herring prospectus with Sebi for a Rs 1,900-crore IPO. The issue will be a pure fresh issue. The company, with advice from lead managers, may issue securities worth Rs 140 crore through pre-IPO placement, potentially reducing the fresh issue size. Out of the Rs 250 crore raised, Rs 135 crore will fuel financial services growth, Rs 135 crore will support data and technology investment, Rs 70.28 crore will fund payment devices' capital expenditure, and the rest will cover general corporate needs. Co-founded by Bipin Preet Singh and Upasana Taku, leveraging their expertise in scalable technology and finance, the company aims to bolster financial inclusion in India using technology. Offering extensive payment solutions like online checkout, Kwik QR scan, MobiKwik Vibe, EDC Machine, and Merchant Cash Advance to businesses and merchants.
Ahmedabad-based Sanstar, which specialises in plant-based products, has filed preliminary papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for raising funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO will be a mix of fresh issue of four crore shares and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 80 lakh shares by the Chowdhary family.The company may also consider raising funds through private placement, rights issue, or preferential issue of up to 40 lakh equity shares before filing the red herring prospectus. If the company manages to raise funds in pre-IPO placement, the fresh issue size will be reduced. Sanstar , which manufactures plant-based speciality products and ingredient solutions for food, animal nutrition and other industrial applications, is going to spend Rs 181.55 crore on the expansion of its Dhule facility and repay debt of Rs 100 crore. The company's outstanding borrowings stood at Rs 120.52 crore as of December 15. The remaining fresh issue money will be set aside for general corporate purposes. With the installed capacity of 3.63 lakh tonnes per annum, Sanstar is the third largest manufacturer of maize-based speciality products and ingredient solutions in India. It has two manufacturing facilities at Dhule in Maharashtra and Kutch in Gujarat.
Kay Cee Energy & Infra stock made a stellar debut, listing at a 366.66 percent premium over the IPO price on January 5. The stock opened at Rs 252 against the issue price of Rs 54 on the NSE SME platform. Ahead of the listing, the shares were commanding a 160 percent premium in the grey market, an unofficial ecosystem where shares start trading before the allotment in the IPO and continue till the listing day. Most investors track the grey market premium (GMP) to get an idea of the listing price. The bumper listing was on the back of strong subscription figures as Kay Cee Energy & Infra’s public issue was subscribed over 959.5 times from December 28 to January 2. Retail investors picked 1,300 times the portion set aside for them, while high net worth individuals (HNIs) bid 1,600 times the reserved portion. The Rs 15.93 crore IPO was entirely a fresh issue of 29.5 lakh shares. The price band for the offer was fixed at Rs 51-54 per share. The company will use the net proceeds for working capital requirements worth Rs 13 crore. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. Lokendra Jain and Shalini Jain are the promoters of the company. GYR Capital Advisors was the bookrunning lead manager, Bigshare Services was the registrar and Giriraj Stock Broking was the market-maker for the issue.
Steel products maker Shri Balaji Valve Components Limited (SBVCL) made a strong market debut on January 3, with the stock listing at almost double the issue price. The share was trading at Rs 199.50, a premium of more than 99 percent over the issue price of Rs 100 and was locked in the upper circuit. The initial public offering (IPO) was entirely a fresh issue of 21.6 lakh equity shares and the company raised about Rs 21.60 crore from the issue. The proceeds will be utilised in funding capital expenditure towards the installation of additional plants and machines, meeting working capital requirements, and general corporate purposes. Pune-based Shri Balaji Valve Components makes valve components for industries like power, construction, oil and gas, and pharma. In the past three years, SBVCL has exported to Germany, Singapore, Taiwan, Italy, South Africa, USA, United Kingdom, Qatar and the US. The company says its growth has been due to its ability to understand customer needs and build a product of optimal design. Hem Securities Limited was the book running lead manager of the Balaji Valve Components IPO, while Bigshare Services Pvt Ltd was the registrar for the issue. The market maker for Balaji Valve Components IPO was Hem Finlease.
Exicom Tele-Systems, which manufactures electric vehicle chargers, has raised Rs 71 crore in a pre-IPO placement, before filing the red-herring prospectus with the registrar of companies (ROC). The company in a January 3 notice to investors said it has allotted 52,59,257 equity shares to five investors at a price of Rs 135 each. Rare Enterprise (through Sunil Jugalkishor Anandpara and Hemal Dinesh Shah) was the biggest buyer among five investors, picking up 20 lakh shares worth Rs 27 crore, while Belgrave Investment Fund was at the second spot, buying 18,51,851 equity shares worth Rs 25 crore. Shaurya Vardhan Sonthalia and Rajyavardhan Sonthalia each bought 3,33,333 equity shares for Rs 4.5 crore, while Monika Garware was the last investor, taking up 7.4 lakh shares for nearly Rs 10 crore. As per the draft papers filed on September 27, 2023 with Sebi, the company intended to consider raising Rs 80 crore from the pre-IPO placement, which is a part of fresh issue. The IPO is a mix of a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 400 crore, and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 74 lakh equity shares by promoter NextWave Communications. At the time of filing the DRHP, NextWave Communications owned a 71.45 percent stake in the company.
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Parag Parikh Mutual Fund has filed a draft document for Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund with Sebi. Parag Parikh Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund will be an open ended dynamic asset allocation fund. The investment objective of the scheme will be to generate income/long-term capital appreciation by investing in equity, equity derivatives, fixed income instruments. The allocation between equity instruments and fixed income will be managed dynamically so as to provide investors with long term capital appreciation while managing downside risk.
Motilal Oswal Nifty IT ETF will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking the Nifty IT TRI. The investment objective of the scheme will be to provide returns that, before expenses, closely correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by Nifty IT Index, subject to tracking error. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty IT TRI. The scheme will allocate 95-100% in constituents of Nifty IT Index, and 0-5% in units of liquid schemes and money market instruments.
Motilal Oswal Nifty Bank ETF will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking the Nifty Bank TRI. The investment objective of the scheme will be to provide returns that, before expenses, closely correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by Nifty Bank Index, subject to tracking error. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty Bank Total Return Index. The scheme will allocate 95-100% in constituents of Nifty Bank Index, and 0-5% in units of liquid schemes and money market instruments. The minimum application amount for investment in these schemes will be Rs 500 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The schemes will be managed by Swapnil Mayekar, and Rakesh Shetty.
WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund has filed a draft document for WhiteOak Capital Pharma and Healthcare Fund. The scheme will be an open-ended equity scheme investing in the pharma and healthcare sector. The scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE Healthcare TRI. The scheme will be managed by Ramesh Mantri and Dheeresh Pathak ( Equity investments) and Piyush Baranwa (debt investments). According to the scheme information document, the investment objective of the scheme is to provide long term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments of pharma and healthcare companies. The scheme will have direct and regular plans with growth options. The scheme will allocate 80 -100% of its assets in equity & equity related instruments of pharma and healthcare companies, 0-20% of assets in equity & equity related instruments of companies other than pharma and healthcare companies, 0-20% assets in debt and money market instruments and 0-10%, and 0-10% assets in units issued by REITS and InVITs.
Navi Mutual Fund has announced the change of name of two hybrid schemes: Navi Regular Savings Fund and Navi Equity Hybrid Fund. The changes are effective from January 1. The fund house informed its investors about the change to its investors through an addendum.
| Old Name | New name |
| Navi Regular Savings Fund | Navi Conservative Hybrid Fund |
| Navi Equity Hybrid Fund | Navi Aggressive Hybrid Fund |
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