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FROM THE DESK OF EDITOR

Dear Readers,

It's hard to believe it's been 18 years! It seems like only yesterday we released our very first issue. Back then, it was just a vision - a vision to empower our readers to make informed financial decisions. As we celebrate this milestone, we are filled with deep gratitude. Your loyalty and trust are what have sustained us year after year. Speaking of journeys, we'd like to take a moment to thank our amazing Wise Money Editorial team. Their dedication and expertise translate our ideas into practical guidance for you. Our brand team deserves a special mention for their innovative ideas, strategic thinking, and vision that make Wise Money stand out from the competition. The world is constantly changing - subprime crisis, Middle East tensions, inflation, COVID-19, war, and now economic fluctuations. However, one thing remains constant: how crucial financial knowledge is. Numerous readers are utilizing our guidance to accomplish their objectives, both large and small. Wise Money has always been, and will always be, at your side. We'll guide you through macro and microeconomic factors, keeping you informed and empowered. We appreciate you being part of the Wise Money family. Together, let's keep learning, growing, and making wise financial decisions

Coming to regular exercise, in the US, the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained after softer-than-anticipated producer prices data soothed investor jitters about sticky inflation, keeping hopes of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year alive. European stock markets moved higher to their highest level in three weeks fueled by the expectation of lower borrowing costs in the Eurozone on the back of expectation of rate cut by European Central Bank (ECB). While the ECB maintained interest rates for the fifth meeting in a row, they signaled a possible cut in the future. Their statement suggested that a rate reduction "could be on the table" if inflation keeps moving closer to their 2% target. The Chinese government appears to have settled on a prescription for its ailing economy. Leaders are now betting on "new and high-quality productive forces" to revive China's economic fortunes, having ruled out large-scale stimulus. March proved to be a positive month for the Chinese economy, with indicators showing positive signs across the board. Industrial output grew faster than expected, exceeding forecasts. On March 19th, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, in response to seemingly entrenched inflation. After years of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy, Japan has finally begun to follow the lead of other economies that have tightened policy in response to widespread inflation. This is a significant shift.

Back at home, domestic markets continued surging to new record highs driven by positive global cues and strong domestic participation. Ample liquidity in the market and an expected trend reversal in the Chinese economy further fueled the rally. The resilience of the Indian stock market was buoyed by domestic investors' confidence in India's economic robustness and promising growth prospects. With the recent record GST collection and attractive forecast for the Indian economy by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its recently ended monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, the market now expects strong Q4 2024 results from Indian companies. In the recent monetary policy meeting, RBI maintained the policy repo rate at 6.50% for the seventh consecutive time in its first bi-monthly monetary policy of FY25. Meanwhile, the ongoing correction trend in the IT sector, influenced by global uncertainties, is expected to continue but long-term prospects remain good. Banking & finance, auto, infrastructure, and manufacturing are poised for strong growth in the next two years. FMCG companies are focusing on increasing sales and distribution, with a hope for demand recovery aided by good monsoons. As elections at home are approaching, there is an expectation that Modi government will continue to be in the government for the 3rd time and this is seen as positive for the overall economy. The Modi government will continue to keep Infrastructure, capital expenditure (capex), and manufacturing in focus. Buoyed by growth, India's capital markets are ready to seize the opportunities of the Amritkaal.

On the commodity market front, it was a dynamic week in the markets with notable movements across various sectors. The CRB index took a breather around the 345 mark after experiencing a significant rally over the past four weeks. Concurrently, the Dollar Index retreated for the second consecutive week, while US Treasury yields trended downwards. Gold witnessed a surge in enthusiasm, marked a peak for the near future. Both gold and silver reached new record highs on the MCX, with COMEX gold setting a new record as well, although silver still lags far behind its previous peak of over $49.5. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 68000-74000 and 80000-86000 respectively. The rally in crude oil paused due to inventory buildups, while natural gas showed slight consolidation with minor gains. Crude oil can trade a range of 6700-7350. Base metals had another robust week, seemingly unfazed by news of potential delays in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Copper soared to its highest point in 15 months, while zinc experienced significant upside momentum. In contrast, agricultural commodities remained range-bound with a bearish bias, primarily due to the absence of significant spot buying activity.

Happy Invesing!!!

It could become more widespread and keep inflationary expectations high. Despite these concerns, we expect the RBI to consider rate cuts by yearend. We previously anticipated a third-quarter cut, but strong growth figures and persistent food inflation, particularly for staples like cereal, have pushed our expectations to a shallow 25 basis point reduction at yearend, followed by another 25 basis point cut in Q1 of next year.

How the GIFT City will impact the Indian stock market?

The emergence of GIFT City has the potential to impact the Indian stock market in several ways. This purpose-built financial center aims to lure foreign capital with global regulations and tax breaks. This could inject much-needed liquidity into the Indian market, attracting more investors and potentially driving stock prices higher. Beyond just capital, GIFT City has the potential to introduce new financial instruments and derivatives, currently unavailable in India. This would offer investors a wider range of tools to manage their portfolios and potentially improve overall market efficiency. Furthermore, by acting as a bridge between Indian and international markets, GIFT City could extend trading hours and boost trading volumes, further benefiting market activity. However, there are also potential challenges. GIFT City may compete with established exchanges like NSE and BSE, potentially fragmenting liquidity and impacting trading volumes on existing platforms.

Overall, the impact of GIFT City on the Indian stock market will likely be gradual and multifaceted. Its success hinges on attracting foreign capital, establishing itself as a credible financial hub, and working in harmony with existing market infrastructure.

Sir, your words of wisdom for the Wise money Team.

Warm congratulations to Wise Money on reaching its 18th anniversary! For eighteen years, you've been a trusted source of financial guidance, empowering readers to navigate the complexities of money management. We raise a toast to your continued success in fostering financial literacy and helping individuals make informed choices towards a brighter financial future.

India's Power Sector: A Bright Future Powered by Growth and Transformation

India's power sector is in a major transformation, reshaping its future. Actually, the country's flourishing economy is pushing up electricity demand. It could be seen that supportive government policies and regulations are fostering a thriving environment for the power sector and this has attracted record investments. Data from PIB shows power demand has skyrocketed by over 50% between 2013-14 and 2022-23. This fiscal year (April-December), power consumption in India saw a near 8% yearon-year jump to 1,221.15 billion units (BU), reflecting a pick-up in economic activity. On the flip side, meeting this growing demand has been challenging due to power generation shortfalls. Several factors such as higher fuel costs and shortages are ruining the sector as a whole. Coal shortages due to logistical hurdles, mining disruptions, and environmental regulations have strained thermal power plants, hindering their efficiency and limiting electricity generation.

Speaking about the rising power demand in a summit, Union Power Minister R.K. Singh stated that "By 2030, the peak electricity demand is likely to cross 400 GW, indicating the fast growth of the economy. The demand grew at 9 per cent last year, and is growing at 10 per cent this year. On a daily basis, the demand is 8 GW - 10 GW more than the same day of the previous year. There is no other market as big and growing as fast as us."

The Central Electricity Authority predicts India will need over 817 GW of generation capacity by 2030. To address this and create a sustainable future, India is ramping up its power production. The Modi government has had taken many initiatives towards this. India has a big goal: to get 50% of its electricity from sources like solar and wind by 2030. The meaning thereby is that the aim is to replace half of its current power plants with clean alternatives. And to achieve this, the government is helping by offering incentives and making it easier to invest in renewable energy

Now the billion dollar question is . The answer to the Why the big push question is to fight climate change, becoming less reliant on foreign energy sources, and take advantage of India's abundance of renewable resources. India's power needs are surging each day; more people, growing cities, and booming industries are all demanding more electricity.

As the India's power sector is booming, rising energy needs and government support for clean energy are driving new plant construction and renewable integration. Upgrading infrastructure and using smart technologies are significant. Leading companies like Power Grid and NTPC are well-positioned with strong infrastructure and a focus on both renewables and efficient delivery. They aim to be active throughout the renewable energy chain, participating in large-scale solar, wind, hybrid, and pumped storage hydro projects.

The Utilities index has outperformed the BSE Sensex significantly over the past 5 years; with returns nearly double that of the Sensex. Individual power stocks within the Utilities index have also seen strong gains in the past 3 months, ranging from 20% to 70%. Some of the examples are NHPC (63.7%), SJVN (48%), Power Grid Corporation (38.3%), NTPC (31.9%), REC (30%), Tata Power (45%), JSW Energy (23%), and Bharat Heavy Electricals (49.8%). This strong performance suggests that the Indian power sector is currently doing well. Fundamentals details of the companies are as under:

EQUITY

NEWS & FORTHCOMING

The Allure of Premium: Decoding the Indian Stock Market's Shimmer

The Indian consumers are undergoing a transformation. Gone are the days of prioritizing affordability over quality. Today, a discerning taste for premium experiences pervades every aspect of their lives, from the clothes they wear to the groceries they buy. This shift in consumer behavior hasn't gone unnoticed by the stock market, where a fascinating trend - premiumization - is taking hold. Companies are witnessing their stocks trade at a significantly higher valuation as compared to their global counterparts.

However a question comes to mind is that is this a true reflection of the Indian economy's health, or a mirage shimmering in the desert of a complex economic landscape?

India's Ascent to Premium Paradise

India is one of the world's largest consumer markets and is rapidly transforming into a haven for premium products. Undeniably this growth mirrors the trajectory of established luxury giants in the US and China. However, for companies to truly claim a place in this coveted segment, simply raising prices is a recipe for failure. The key lies in delivering a tangible sense of added value. This could encompass superior quality materials, cutting-edge features that enhance functionality, or an exclusive brand experience that elevates the customer journey.

Not only metros, even India's smaller cities are leading the surge in premium products like fashion, food, cosmetics, dining, and accessories. Improved connectivity, amenities, and access in cities like Surat, Indore, Kochi, Jaipur, and Lucknow make them as attractive as metros for premium retailers. This extends to countless Tier 2, 3, and 4 cities boasting better

infrastructure, faster internet, attractive workplaces, improved transportation, and access to a larger talent pool. These advancements have fueled a growing demand for premium products in these smaller towns.

Perception Paints a Premium Picture

The demand for premium products in India gained strong momentum post pandemic, primarily driven by rising disposable incomes, more numbers of HNIs, evolving consumer preferences and desire for aspirational products. On the automobile space, people are increasingly buying SUVs and MPVs, even though they cost more, reflecting a trend towards bigger and more feature-rich vehicles with advanced technology and connectivity. Maruti Suzuki, the country`s largest passenger vehicle manufacturing company, has significantly increased its UVs sales contribution in the last few years from just 8.5% in June 2022 to 63% in December 2023. In the two wheeler space, Bajaj Auto is expanding its offerings in the larger engine segment (above 250cc) on the back of growing demand for high end bikes. The classic example is that recently Bajaj Auto has launched two new 400cc motorcycles, the Speed 400 and Scrambler 400 X, which is developed in collaboration with Triumph.

In the FMCG sector, the companies like Britannia and Colgate-Palmolive are capitalizing on this trend by launching new, premium lines of biscuits and toothpastes that offer additional features or benefits. Nestle is also experiencing a rise in demand for its premium offerings, due to the

"Wealth Effect."

The premiumization trend has become a siren song for foreign companies. Attracted by the prospect of higher valuations and the potential for exponential growth, they are flocking to the Indian market. Premiumization has tapped into a fundamental human desire for a better life. Consumers are seeking for a higher quality of life, a sense of exclusivity, and the satisfaction that comes with owning or experiencing something truly special. While the Indian stock market revels in the golden glow of premiumization, however it is half true. The broader Indian economy might not be experiencing the same level of growth enjoyed by premium brands. This raises a crucial question: is the stock market's premiumization a true reflection of the country's economic well-being, or is it a bubble inflated by a select few thriving segments?

There are two ways to look at "premium" companies in India. One way is to look at large-cap, well-established companies with a strong track record. The other way is to look at companies that are capitalizing on the growing demand for premium products and services in India. Due to multiple factors such as strong Growth Potential, Riding the Premiumisation Wave, Financial Stability, better margin, Lower Risk, Attractive Valuations and Favourable Business Environment, Investors are drawn to premium companies in India.

To conclude, the premiumization phenomenon presents both opportunities and challenges for the Indian economy. Companies need to strategize effectively to deliver genuine value propositions and justify their premium pricing. The government, on the flip side, must ensure inclusive growth that benefits not just the premium segment but also the vast segment of the population that aspires for a better quality of life. Only by fostering a truly holistic economic development strategy can India translate the allure of premium into sustainable and equitable growth for all.

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

The Connection Between The Stock Market and The Elections

The stock market and the overall economy are intricately linked; the performances of the both are aligned. Stock markets are usually assumed to provide the immediate mirror reflection or the general perception of the country or the investors as a whole about the economy and the factors that have an impact on the same. From the stock market front, the year 2024 will be a crucial year for elections worldwide. Major elections in India (May) and the US (November) will introduce policy uncertainties and global economic factors that investors will need to navigate. Central banks play a crucial role in ensuring economic and financial stability. They manage inflation and maintaining financial stability through monetary policy tools and their decisions significantly impact the stock market in various ways. Understanding their role in setting interest rates is essential for informed financial decisions.

As elections are approaching, everyone is asking “kya lagta hai election ke baad… market mein teji ya mandi”. India's landmark general election, held midway through the year, could potentially shift the direction of economic growth. Election outcomes can have a ripple effect on corporate profits, potentially causing investor anxiety. As we all know Indian markets, particularly susceptible to election fever, experience increased volatility during these periods. Pre-election polls, news headlines, and shifting public opinion can all cause significant fluctuations. Just like economic changes, political events like elections and legislative shifts can significantly impact the stock market. In this article we will understand how the stock market and elections interact:

Government Ideology A A party with a clear plan for economic growth can boost market sentiment, leading to higher share prices. Conversely, a

party with unclear or conflicting policies may negatively impact the stock markets. If the party is expected to continue to implement strong economic policies, the stock market always reacts positively in anticipation. In simpler sentences, Policies like tax cuts, infrastructure spending, or deregulation might be viewed positively, while proposals for higher taxes or stricter regulations could lead to market jitters.

Sectoral Impacts Elections have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only the political landscape but also the stock market and economy. Political transitions can trigger changes in government policies, economic priorities, and regulations, subsequently affecting various sectors and companies. One point we should always keep in mind is that elections introduce volatility in the short term, the long-term effects are primarily determined by the economic reforms and policies implemented by the ruling party. The government's continuous pro-business stance and emphasis on initiatives such as and infrastructure "Make in India" development such as Sagarmala and Bharatmala project are seen as favourable for the market. Additionally, the ease of doing business, tax reforms, and efforts to attract foreign investment are viewed positively by investors. Many are currently looking to recent state elections for clues. The decisive outcome of the assembly elections is seen by the market as a potential indicator of a third term for the Modi government. Thus, the government's multifaceted approach significantly impacts India's economic prosperity, social well-being, and the overall welfare of its citizens.

Staying Ahead of Stock Market The stock market is unpredictable, but informed investors always gain an advantage. Global events and political shifts have had significantly impacted the market. Positive news always boosts investor confidence, while negative events trigger sell-offs. Since the global economy is interconnected, issues in major markets (like interest rates or a US recession) can affect Indian companies and lead to market declines. Today's connected markets mean downturns in major economies can trigger sell-offs in others as investors avoid risky assets. Even commodity prices such as oil and gold used by Indian companies are influenced by global events, impacting their profits and stock prices. Currency fluctuations can further affect the value of Indian stocks held by foreign investors. The upcoming US election adds another layer of uncertainty. If Donald Trump wins, his trade policies with China could disrupt global markets. Trump's policies might also affect India's economic ties with the US, potentially impacting global financial markets.

Long-Term Investment Strategy and Building WealthWe all know that a long-term investment strategy helps weather short-term volatility. One should always focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential. Investors should invest in quality stocks with good financials and consistent earnings for a more reliable foundation.

Bottom line is that, once the election results are clear, the Indian market will likely focus more on domestic issues. Remember, elections are just one piece of a complex picture, and the stock market's inherent volatility will always be present. To prosper in this uncertain environment, investors should be ready to adapt investment strategy quickly. One has to remain informed by closely following economic news, company reports, industry trends, and global market movements. By combining vigilance, strategic planning, and a long-term perspective, investors can navigate the complexities of the market and potentially increasing wealth.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

Unlocking Passive Income: Covered Call Strategy For Long Term Investors

A covered call is when an investor who sells call options also holds the same quantity of the underlying security. In order to do this, an investor with a long position in an asset will sell call options on the same asset to create a source of income. The owner's ownership of the asset acts as protection, allowing the seller to provide the shares when the call option buyer decides to execute.

Points to remember

A covered call is a popular options strategy used to generate income in the form of options premiums.

Investors only expect a minor increase or decrease in the underlying stock price for the life of the option when they execute a covered call.

To execute a covered call, an investor holding a long position in an asset then writes (sells) call options on that same asset.

Covered calls are often employed by those who intend to hold the underlying stock for a long time but do not expect an appreciable price increase in the near term.

A covered call serves as a short-term hedge on a long stock position and allows investors to earn income via the premium received for writing the option. However, the investor forfeits stock gains if the price moves above the option's strike price.

The benefits of a covered call strategy for long-term investors include:

Income Generation: Selling call options against owned shares generate immediate income, providing a steady stream of cash flow, which can supplement dividends or other income sources.

Enhanced Returns: By collecting premiums from selling call options, investors can potentially enhance their overall returns on their longterm stock holdings.

Downside Protection:The premium received from selling call options acts as a buffer against potential downside movements in the stock price. This can help cushion losses during market downturns.

Reduced Cost: Selling call options can lower the effective cost basis of owning the underlying stock, potentially increasing overall profitability if the stock price appreciates.

Risk Management: The strategy allows investors to manage risk by setting a predetermined exit price for their shares through the strike price of the call options sold.

Flexibility: Investors can tailor the strategy to their risk tolerance and investment objectives by selecting appropriate strike prices and expiration dates for the call options.

Long-Term Holding Benefits: : Long-term investors can continue to benefit from potential dividend payments and capital appreciation of the underlying stock while employing the covered call strategy to generate additional income. Overall, the covered call strategy can be a valuable tool for long-term investors looking to generate income, manage risk, and enhance returns on their investment portfolios.

Let's understand with an example as well

Let's say you own 500 shares of ABC Ltd, currently trading at rupee 2,000 per share. You believe in long-term prospects of the company but want to generate additional income from your holdings as well. You decide to implement a covered call strategy. With 500 shares of ABC Ltd at rupee 2,000 per share, & with investment of total 10,00,000 rupees. Sell Call Option with a strike price of 2,200 and an expiration date one month. On selling this option, for example you receive a premium of rupees 20 per share from the option buyer, totalling ₹10,000 i,e (20 rupee premium per share * 500 shares).

Outcome Scenarios

1. If ABC Ltd price remains below 2,200 by the expiration date: You keep the premium of 10,000/- from selling the call option. And also continue holding onto your shares of ABC Ltd, with potentially earning dividends and benefiting from any price appreciation.

2. If ABC's Ltd price rises above ₹2,200 by the expiration date: The buyer of the call option may exercise their right to buy your shares at the strike price of ₹2,200. In that case you sell your 500 shares of ABC Ltd for ₹2,200 each, receiving ₹11, 00,000 in total with addition to the 10,000 premium received. So, your total profit from the strategy will be now 110,000/- (1, 00,000 from selling shares + 10,000 premium)

This example demonstrates how a covered call strategy can be implemented in the Indian market using a specific stock. It provides income generation potential while allowing participation in the stock's potential upside and managing downside risk.

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

SYNGENE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED (SYNGENE)

The stock closed at Rs.749.50 on 12th April, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.601.75 on 11th April, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.860.25 on 07th September 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 716.

Over the past one year, the stock has experienced significant fluctuations, with prices oscillating around its 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) on a daily chart interval. Prices have been volatile, and ranging between 670 and 770 since long. Recently, there has been a notable breakout above the inverted head and shoulder pattern, indicating a bullish signal for the stock. Additionally, the stock has formed a triple bottom pattern on broader charts as well, which further supports the upward momentum into a stock for upcoming sessions. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 740-750 levels for the upside target of 860- 865 levels with SL below 675 levels.

METROPOLIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED (METROPOLIS)

The stock closed at Rs.1841 on 12th April, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.1209.25 on 22nd May, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1933.50 on 12th April 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs1582

Over the past few months, the stock has been steadily recovering from its lows, exhibiting a gradual upward trend within a rising channel. Notably, a pattern of higher bottoms has emerged, indicating increasing bullish momentum. Recently, there was a significant development as the stock has managed to close above its 200-day exponential moving average on weekly charts as well. This breakthrough coincided with a strong upward momentum, propelling prices above the key resistance level of 1800 levels. Last week, the stock reached a new high for the year, peaking at 1933.50 levels. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1820-1840 levels for the upside target of 2160-2170 levels with SL below 1600 levels.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

In the week gone by, both Nifty and Banknifty reached to their record highs. However on the back of profit booking, both the indices pared most of it gains and ended on a flat note. Among sectors, notable gains were seen in metals, real estate and oil & gas, while underperformance was observed in pharmaceuticals, PSU banks and media stocks. From the derivative front, Nifty options showed the highest call open interest at the 22,800 and 22,600 strikes, while the highest put open interest was noted at the 22,200 strike. For Bank nifty, the highest call open interest was at the 49,000 strike, followed by the 49,500 strike, while the highest put open interest was observed at the 48,500 and 48,000 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 10.67% and put options concluded at 11.38%. The India VIX, a crucial market volatility indicator, ended the week at 11.11%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.34 for the week. For the upcoming week, we expect markets to remain volatile ahead of corporate earnings. On the downside, Nifty holds a strong support in the zone of 22300-22200 while on higher side, 22700-22800 would act as a strong hurdle for the index. Bias is likely to remain in favour of bulls, so any dip should be used to create fresh longs.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

Unveiling the Pitfalls: Why Do Most Derivative Traders Lose Money?

As the equity market continues to evolve, an increasing number of individuals are joining the fray. This trend is fuelled by the allure of potentially higher returns compared to other asset classes. However, in the options market, this evolution has been marked by a shift towards greed and the expectation of rapid and substantial profits. Following the COVID19 pandemic, there was a notable surge in turnover within the options market, attracting more traders with the hope of quick gains. In FY19, the ratio (trading turnover) between the option segment and the equity segment stood at 30x. Whereas, within a mere four-year span, this ratio surged dramatically to nearly 400x; it is huge. Another side of the story is that despite attracting so many traders towards it, surprisingly the reality diverged sharply from expectations. Data from SEBI shows that a staggering 89% of individual traders in the equity F&O segment suffered losses, averaging Rs. 1.1 lakh during FY22. Now the question comes to mind is that why the losses? Actually, the greed and lack of understanding of market dynamic especially that of trading in options. Let's dig deeper into this issue to comprehend the situation better and explore strategies to mitigate such losses.

There are several reasons for losses in the option market. Firstly, the high theta on weekly options should be taken into account when establishing a

position. Far out-of-the-money (OTM) options have very little movement, which might cause theta erosion, thus it is best to avoid them. Furthermore, numerous option traders neglect to follow to stop loss practices. The primary rule in the options market is to implement stop loss strategies, which fall under risk management. They gamble with their entire premium in the hopes of earning a sizable return, treating options trading like gambling. Preserving capital is crucial for generating new positions. This principle should always be remembered. Another factor contributing to losses is excessive leveraging of positions. Retail traders, being predominantly option buyers, often opt to purchase more options with minimal premiums, ignorant to the risk of losing their entire invested amount.

To achieve success as a trader, it is essential to follow the rules listed below:

1. Maintain small position sizes: Trading with smaller position sizes is essential because sustainable profitability requires remaining in the market for extended periods. Over-leveraged positions can rapidly deplete capital.

2. Engage solely in liquid stocks and options: Trading within liquid markets mitigates impact costs (i.e. the difference between bid and ask prices) and slippage. With fewer active participants, the absence of liquidity can lead to heightened volatility

3. Focus exclusively on high-probability trades: Relying on intuition alone when purchasing/selling options won't yield consistent profits. Each trade should be supported by sound reasoning and adhere to a set of predefined rules.

4. Dedicate yourself to consistent practice: Learning is a continuous process, and the more you practice, the more insights you gain. Technical analysis involves both scientific principles and artistic interpretation, necessitating traders to keep a journal to enhance their comprehension of market patterns in various situations.

5. Select the appropriate strategy: Even when market direction forecasts are accurate, it's crucial to choose strategies wisely. Volatility acts as a double-edged sword, capable of working for or against your position. Option buyers anticipate increases in premiums, whereas sellers anticipate decrease. Employing strategies that offer risk management advantages over naked options is prudent.

The Bull Call Spread consistently provides an edge over naked options in terms of risk mitigation. Let's illustrate this with an example. One of the most effective option strategies in terms of risk management is the Bull Call Spread. Nifty is currently trading at 22,400. You Consider this scenario: can buy a Nifty 22,500 call option (let's assume at 150) while simultaneously sell a Nifty 22,700 call option (let's assume at 70). This strategy caps the maximum loss, reducing it from 150 to 80. Also one can hold this position in volatile market.

In contrast to the Bull Call Spread, there's the Bear Call Spread or Credit Spread. Here, one sells a Nifty 22,500 call option and simultaneously buys a 22,700 call option, expecting to profit from theta decay during sideways to bearish movements. This strategy is particularly advantageous for traders seeking to generate theta income.

Several strategies are accessible in the market, including credit spreads, butterflies, condors, strangles, and straddles etc. Proper deployment is crucial, depending upon market conditions and volatility levels. Most of the derivative traders are making losses as per SEBI report. Many to overlook risk management practices such as not following stop losses, no proper system and overleveraging positions. To mitigate losses, traders should keep above points in mind. These practices enhance risk management and increase the likelihood of successful trading outcomes in volatile market conditions.

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY DATA ANALYSIS

The Wonder Metal - Silver

The wonder metal silver, blending the allure of precious metals with the utility of industrial ones, poised can add more glitter to your portfolio. With mounting industrial demand amid standard supply the return could be bigger in coming years.

Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024 which is a rise 1%, pushed higher by the continued strength of industrial end-uses and a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand. Silver off take should also benefit from the technological breakthrough that has brought new, higherefficiency N-type solar cells (with higher silver loadings) into mass production. In the automotive industry, greater use of electronic components and investment in battery charging infrastructure will continue supporting silver off take. Deployment of AI-related applications has seen several consumer electronic brands prepare to introduce new products, which should favor silver. Jewelry demand is expected to record a 6% rise, and India will contribute the bulk of gains this year. Silver physical investment is projected to decrease by 6% to a four-year low. Once the Fed starts to cut rates, most likely in mid-2024, silver investment should begin to recover. On the supply side, total global silver supply is forecast to grow by 3% in 2024 to an eight-year high of 1.02 billion ounces, entirely led by a recovery in mine output.

A striking comparison… If we consider the return of silver since its launch in 2004 on MCX it is almost 898% whereas gold surpassed 1028%. Nifty 50 in the same time period gave return of 1058%. It almost gave good fight with riskier and safe haven buying. If we consider broader perspective, it's notable that in 1980, silver traded at $41.5 an ounce while the Dow traded at $1000. Today, silver is hovering around $28, while the Dow has surged nearly 40 times higher. Silver is poised to shine in the upcoming years, leveraging increasing demand and new technological advancements to

potentially outperform and restore balance in the market.

There are three scenarios for an While gold continues to soar to new all-time highs, recently reaching $2372, silver remains below its peak set in 2011 at $49.56, indicating room for significant growth as it strives to catch up.

MCX silver is poised to deliver higher returns. MCX Silver has appreciated by nearly 900% since 2004 compared to COMEX silver's 330% increase. The substantial depreciation of the INR by 83% has notably fueled the momentum in MCX silver, emphasizing the importance of considering currency fluctuations when investing in bullion.

Silver's escalating demand in jewelry, fabrication, coins, bars and industry promises to enhance portfolio returns. Silver investment, including ETF, can be aggressive in second half of 2024, which can send prices to new record high on MCX. It is evident that, whenever ETF buying has been positive, it has provided an added premium to the metals. We are anticipating 85000- 88000 by the year end whereas COMEX silver can eye for $35. Keep accumulating on dip for long term horizon.

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices remained under pressure with surging arrival pressure of new crop. Turmeric prices have dropped about 4% on weekly basis with short accumulation in next month contract. Muted demand has been major concern in recent time as stockists are avoiding bulk buying in wake of sluggish export enquires. Fresh official export data would give direction to the market as considering the export enquires it seems export is likely to remain down in FebMar'24. Turmeric export from India dropped 15% Y-o-y to 10.49 thousand tonnes in Jan'24 wherein total export during Apr'23-Jan'24 reported at 131.6 thousand tonnes down by 3.5% from the previous year. However, downfalls in spot prices have been limited as it dropped only 2% W-o-W ruled at 15640 at Nizamabad market. Prices spread between spot and futures ruled near to 1000 and expected to increase with expected short covering in turmeric soon. Downfall in turmeric prices is likely to be limited due to lower production outlook. Production is likely to be dropped by about 14% Y-o-Y due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield and may stay in between 9.2-9.5 lakh tonnes. Turmeric prices are expected to trade in range of 15500- 17000 levels.

Jeera prices traded on negative bias for most part of week lost about 3.43% on weekly basis. Smooth harvest progress and surging arrivals pressure of new crop weighed on market sentiments. Going forward, jeera futures are likely to trade higher as short covering can be seen anytime in this counter due to improved export enquires. India exported 12.4 thousand tonnes of jeera in Jan'24 as compared to 8.04 thousand tonnes previous year higher by 54% Y-o-Y. Bumper production prospects and commencement of new crop is likely to cap the gains. Harvesting activities are expected to pick up due to drier weather condition in Gujarat and Rajasthan that will lead to rise in supplies. Jeera production in India is expected to increase by 30% Y-o-Y in year 2024. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 21000-29000.

Dhaniya prices tumbled with surging arrival pressure on new crop. Weakness in dhaniya prices are likely to continue as rising supplies of new crop with advancement of harvesting activities is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Forecast of drier weather condition will support ongoing harvesting across India that will lead to rise in supplies in India. However, robust export demand will cap the major downfall in prices. India exported about 83.6 thousand tonnes of coriander during Apr'23-Jan'24 compared to 24.8 tonnes of previous year up by 215% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7200-8000.

BULLIONS

Gold prices surged to record highs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, driving demand for the safe-haven metal despite robust economic indicators failing to diminish its appeal. Concerns over premature policy easing by the Federal Reserve intensified as consecutive strong economic reports hinted at potential inflationary pressures. While the European Central Bank maintained record-high interest rates, the possibility of rate cuts loomed, potentially starting as early as June. Tensions in the Middle East escalated as Russia, Germany, and Britain urged restraint while Israel prepared to address security threats posed by Iran. Meanwhile, Sibanye Stillwater's restructuring plan for its South African gold operations threatened 4,022 jobs, sparking resistance from labor unions. Despite recent hot inflation data and a strong U.S. jobs report last week stirring more questions on the feasibility of rate cuts this year, bullion is poised for a fourth straight weekly rise and has gained over 15% so far for the year. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold. The dollar hung near a five-month high following a nearly 1% gain in the previous week. Technical analysis revealed a breakout in Comex Gold, with projected targets at $2500 and support likely near $2200. Silver mirrored gold's trajectory, with anticipated trading in the range of $26.00 - $30.00 levels. Looking ahead, gold prices on MCX were expected to sustain upward momentum, albeit with signs of exhaustion, potentially prompting a correction before resuming an upward trend. Projected trading ranges were 71500-74000 levels for gold and 80000-86000 levels for silver in the upcoming week.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil experienced marginal gains amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the region. However, the week saw overall losses in prices, driven by expectations of fewer U.S. interest rate cuts in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. The early sessions of the week were marked by apprehension over stubborn U.S. inflation, which tempered hopes for an interest rate cut as soon as June. Tensions surged further as suspected Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's embassy in Damascus, prompting vows of retaliation from Iran and exacerbating the already tense atmosphere in the region, particularly in the wake of the Gaza conflict. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, Iran's supreme leader issued strong statements indicating retribution. Despite these tensions, U.S. officials indicated expectations of an Iranian attack on Israel that would likely fall short of provoking U.S. military involvement. Iranian sources hinted at responses aimed at avoiding significant escalation. In parallel, Israel remained engaged in the Gaza conflict while preparing for potential threats in other areas, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meanwhile, in Europe, where economic indicators pointed to a softening labor market and stagnant growth, central bankers maintained policy rates but signaled readiness to implement rate cuts possibly as soon as June. Looking forward, crude oil prices were anticipated to exhibit mixed movements, with a projected trading range of 6900 to 7300. Conversely, natural gas prices faced losses in later sessions due to a larger-thanexpected rise in inventories, alongside a mixed weather forecast. Forecasts indicated warmer conditions in certain regions and cooler risks in others. Anticipated trading for natural gas in the upcoming week ranged from 140 to 165.

BASE METALS

Base metal prices climbed on multi month high as investors grow more confident that an extended period of high interest rates is not choking off economic growth. At the same time, concerns are rising that production problems from mining companies will constrain supplies. On the other hand, demand is also expected to rise dramatically from Europe and the US, due to these countries potentially seeing an upswing in economic and industrial recovery, following several months of dampened activity. However, profit booking at higher level cannot be denied as the weakness in the property sector, a major consumer of base metals, is still a matter of concern. Copper may trade in the range of 805-845 levels. More global copper smelters were not operating in March than in the first two months, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed, after Chinese smelters proposed to cut output and operations elsewhere undertook planned maintenance. Although, copper production in Chile rose 9.8% on an annual basis to 417,000 metric tons in February but production at Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, dipped 1.6% to 103,700 tons, the country's copper commission Cochilco said. Zinc can trade in range of 235-260 levels. Lead can move in the range of 183-194. Nexa Resources' recent announcements that it would suspend production at its Morro Agudo lead mine in Brazil from May 1 have increased the supply concerns. Aluminium can trade in the range of 220-235. China's aluminium production in March witnessed a notable year-on-year increase of 4.19%, reaching 3.555 million metric tons, signalling a recovery of demand. Steel long (May) is likely to trade in the range of 45000-46500 levels with negative bias.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Guar seed futures are expected to trade mixed note may keep bias on positive side. After witnessing short accumulation in May contract, prices may witness short covering any time in wake of shrinking supplies in the market. Guar prices dropped after release of preliminary estimates of southwest monsoon that looks favorable for crop development and yield. India is likely to experience a normal southwest monsoon in 2024, according to Skymet, a private weather-forecasting agency. Monsoon rainfall between June and September is expected to be 102 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of approximately 87 centimetres, with a model error of +/- 5 per cent, the weather forecaster said. Nationwide, cumulative monsoon rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is deemed “normal”. Skymet's forecast anticipates sufficient rainfall in south, west, and northwest India. Reports of rising export of gum are likely to cap the major downfall in prices. Arrivals have been below normal that will restrict major losses. Guar gum export rose 30% Y-o-y to 20.05 thousand tonnes in Jan'24. Guar seed prices are expected to find support around 5000, with resistance seen at 5800. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to find support around 9800, with resistance observed at 11300.

Cotton prices further eased following the bearish tone in ICE cotton. USDA increased it's estimated for world cotton consumption from 155.80 million bales to 156.39 million bales with rise in consumption estimated for India. USDA trimmed its estimates for Indian cotton stocks from 15.77 million bales to 15.64 million bales in its latest estimates. Cotton MCX prices are likely to trade in range of 58000- 61000 Similarly, Kapas Apr'24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1470-1540 levesl.

Mentha oil prices are likely to trade higher with emerging demand at recent downfall in prices. Tighter supplies and weaker production outlook is likely to support firmness in prices. Area under mentha has dropped atleast by 10% Y-oY that will lead to fall in production atleast by 7%-8% Y-o-Y. India exported about 1709.2 tonnes of mentha oil during Apr'23-Jan'24 as compared to 2016.7 tonnes of previous year. Mentha oil is likely to trade in range of 895-930 levels.

Castor seed prices are likely to trade down due to muted demand in the domestic market. Crushing demand has been slowed down with recent gains in prices. Sluggish exports of castor meal will also put pressure on prices. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5600-6100 levels.

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

• India's import of edible oils in March stood at 11.49 lakh ton sharply up from 9.68 lakh ton a month ago but marginally up from 11.35 lakh ton a year ago as per data compiled by Solvent Extractor's Association of India.
• Wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) for the Centre's buffer stocks has reached 1.44 million tonnes (mt) - 41 per cent higher than 1.03 mt in the year-ago period.
• Private weather forecaster Skymet, which had accurately predicted 2023 monsoon rainfall, has said the monsoon in 2024 could be normal and quantitatively 102 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm, with an error margin of (+/-) 5 per cent.
• Copper production in Chile rose 9.8% on an annual basis to 417,000 metric tons in February but production at Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, dipped 1.6% to 103,700 tons, the country's copper commission Cochilco said.
• The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) set the maximum intraday position opening volumes of gold at 2,800 lots and copper at 2,000 lots. The change will start from April 12.
• China's aluminium production in March witnessed a notable year-on-year increase of 4.19%, reaching 3.555 million metric tons.
• India's silver imports surged to 2,932 tons in the first two months of 2024 compared to 3,625 tons for all of 2023, according to provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
• India's National Cooperative Export Ltd, jointly owned by India's five top cooperative organisations, will export 1,600 tonnes of white rice to Singapore following successful negotiations with the island nation's aggregator.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

It was a dynamic week with notable movements across various sectors. The CRB index took a breather around the 345 mark after experiencing a significant rally over the past four weeks. Concurrently, the Dollar Index retreated for the second consecutive week, while US Treasury yields trended downwards. Margin hike and position limit by Shanghai and COMEX couldn't give much impact on gold and it hit new high of $2400; on MCX, it hit record high of 72448. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) imposes trading limits on gold and copper contracts following price rallies. The exchange set the maximum intraday position opening volumes of gold at 2,800 lots and copper at 2,000 lots; starting from April 12.Gold witnessed a surge in enthusiasm, potentially marking a peak for the near future. Both gold and silver reached new record highs on the MCX, with COMEX gold setting a new record as well, although silver still lags far behind its previous peak of over $49.5. The rally in crude oil paused due to inventory buildups, while natural gas couldn't stay at higher side. Crude oil prices slid as the deadlock in Gaza ceasefire talks renewed uncertainty about the security of supplies from the Middle East, offsetting a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories. Base metals had another robust week, seemingly unfazed by news of potential delays in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Copper soared to its highest point in 15 months amid growing hopes that demand will pick up tracking a recovery in global factory activity. Expectations of tighter copper supplies also remained in play, Zinc experienced significant upside momentum. More global copper smelters were not operating in March than in the first two months, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed, after Chinese smelters proposed to cut output and operations elsewhere undertook planned maintenance. Macquarie analysts expect zinc to flip from a surplus to a narrow deficit this year

In contrast, agricultural commodities remained range-bound with a bearish bias, primarily due to the absence of significant spot buying activity. Castor seed prices slipped for third week in a row. Sun Oil futures traded with marginal losses. Cotton Oil Seeds Cake futures prices slashed further on dull buying. Guar counter closed the week on bearish note. Short position build up in most active May contract in wake of muted demand amid better supply prospects for upcoming season. It was bearish week for spices counter. Turmeric prices tumbled down for straight fifth week. Turmeric prices have dropped with short accumulation in next month contract. Muted demand has been major concern in recent time as stockists are avoiding bulk buying in wake of sluggish export enquires. Rising supplies of new crop with advancement of harvesting activities pressurized dhaniya prices. Mentha oil saw a pause in fall last week.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

Navigating the Markets with Supertrend: Unveiling its Power

In the ever-evolving landscape of trading, where uncertainty and volatility reign, traders are constantly in search of reliable indicators to navigate the markets. One such tool gaining traction is the Supertrend indicator. In this article, I delve into the intricacies of the Supertrend technical indicator, shedding light on its mechanics and showcasing its application through examples in trading the MCX Crude Oil market. From my experience, the Supertrend indicator has been a reliable guide, especially when markets are trending strongly. It's like having a colour-changing arrow on your chart: This arrow helps us see green means "up," red means "down." where the market is heading and when it might change direction

Behind the scenes, it's crunching numbers to figure out how much prices are swinging (True Range) and how much they usually swing (Average True Range). By looking at past price movements, it predicts where prices might go next.

In real-life trading, this arrow has consistently pointed us in the right direction, helping us make smarter decisions and ride the trend with confidence

Application in MCX Crude Oil Trading

On the weekly chart of MCX Crude Oil, employing the Supertrend indicator with parameters set at a 14-period ATR and a multiplier of 1.5, we observe significant buy and sell signals. These signals provide valuable insights into potential market movements, aiding traders in making informed decisions.

A buy signal is generated when prices close above the Upper Band, indicating a bullish trend. For instance, in July 2023, the closing price reached 6579, triggering a buy signal. Subsequently, prices surged to 7884 before another signal emerged. However, it's essential to exercise caution

and implement risk management strategies, such as placing stop-loss orders, to mitigate potential losses.

Conversely, a sell signal occurs when prices close below the Lower Band, signaling a bearish trend. In October 2023, the closing price dipped to 6875, triggering a sell signal. Subsequent price action witnessed a decline, with a low of 5658 recorded in December. This highlights the importance of capitalizing on sell signals while implementing risk management techniques to safeguard against adverse market movements.

Intraday Trading

On the 25-minute timeframe, I've incorporated the Supertrend indicator, where a green arrow indicates a buying signal. As we discussed earlier, we should wait for the candle to close and then initiate a trade if the subsequent candle's high breaks the high of the signal candle. In this setup, the Supertrend line acts as our stop-loss, helping manage risk. Based on this strategy, we can set our profit targets at a ratio of 1:3, meaning if our risk (based on the stop-loss) is 1 unit, our potential reward would be 3 units. Alternatively, we could choose to wait for the next sell signal to materialize before considering exiting the trade

Conversely, for a selling scenario, we'd follow a similar process but in the opposite direction. When a red arrow appears on the Supertrend indicator, indicating a selling signal, we'd wait for the candle to close and then initiate a trade if the subsequent candle's low breaks the low of the signal candle. Again, the Supertrend line would serve as our stop-loss, and we could set profit targets using the 1:3 risk-reward ratio or wait for the next buying signal to exit the trade. This approach helps us effectively manage trades while leveraging the signals provided by the Supertrend indicator.

Risk Management

Effective risk management is paramount in trading, as exemplified by instances where signals may fail to accurately predict market behaviour. For instance, in May 2023, a sell signal was generated with a closing price of 5841. However, prices only reached a low of 5524 before reversing and triggering a buy signal around 6579. This underscores the significance of placing strict stop-loss orders, staying updated on market developments and adhering to disciplined trading practices to minimize potential losses. In summary, while Supertrend signals offer valuable insights into market trends, traders must exercise prudence and implement effective risk management strategies to navigate the volatile landscape of trading successfully.

COMMODITY

Are We Ready To Embrace A New Era Of Rising Bond Yields

Despite a hope for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, the U.S treasury yields, which influence mortgage rates and borrowing costs and certainly the benchmark for the global markets, continue to rise. The trajectory of interest rates in the US, as anticipated by market expectations, largely influences Treasury yields. However, there is another side to the story where US yields might persist at elevated levels. The latest data shows that the U.S. benchmark yield is trading around 4.31% as of 5 April 2024, 9 am IST. This is up from 3.86% recorded at the end of last year.

Market consensus eyeing a rate cut cycle to begin in this year likely to keep the yields lower. However the U.S. Treasuries market, the world's largest, has been volatile due to past interest rate hikes. Now, there's a fear in the financial markets about how bond yields will change in the coming months as rates are expected to ease. The year ended in 2023, the US Federal raised a record $2.4 trillion worth of US government bonds (Treasury) which was roughly doubled compared with the pandemic borrowing. Basically bond yields are influenced by various factors, including the level of interest rates set by central banks, the overall economic environment, inflation expectations, and the supply and demand dynamics in the bond market. When demand for bonds increases relative to their supply, bond prices rise, and yields decrease. Conversely, when demand decreases or supply increases, bond prices fall, and yields rise. This interplay between interest rates and market conditions is crucial for understanding bond market movements.

When the government needs more money than it gets from taxes, it sells bonds through the Treasury Department. The U.S. Government borrowed over $2 trillion by selling these bonds last year to cover its spending and also to repay old debts. The Treasury market has grown a lot, nearly $26 trillion ended in 2023, which is six times bigger than before the 2008-09 financial crises. Participants like buying Treasuries because there aren't many other safe options in the US. Companies borrowed a lot when rates

were low during the pandemic but borrowed less as rates went up. Additionally market participants are happy with the demand for longer-term Treasuries and don't need extra payment to hold them. In fact, the term premium, which is the extra money investors usually get for holding longerterm bonds, is negative.

Who are the buyers?

Banks buy fewer Treasuries because of US local regulations, while hedge funds, money-market funds, and foreign investors are buying more. Money-market funds focus on short-term Treasuries, while hedge funds buy the bonds that the central bank used to buy. Notably Foreign investors are still buying Treasuries, but their share has dropped to less than a quarter of all debt, down from over a third in 2015. Japanese investors, attracted by better returns abroad due to low rates at home, now hold $1.2 trillion in Treasuries, making Japan the top foreign creditor to the US since 2019. The Bank of Japan raised rates recently but is expected to keep them from rising too much, which should prevent large outflows from Treasuries

The Spotlight

Events like the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the market panic in March 2020 were made worse by problems in government debt markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to prevent similar situations in the future by avoiding sudden interventions that could cause a big increase in short-term rates during large Treasury bond auctions. A sudden rise in funding costs, even briefly, can create financial issues such as missed payments or not having enough cash, which could lead to defaults. The Fed implemented safety measures during the Covid-19 pandemic to handle possible market stress. However, there is new bank local regulations in the U.S. which could make it harder for lenders to get capital, and the Securities Exchange Commission is introducing additional protections.

Net purchases of U.S. Treasurys, quarterly, 2000-24

CURRENCY

IPO

IPO NEWS

SEBI nods Aadhar Housing Finance for Rs 5000 cr IPO

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has approved Rs 5,000-crore Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Aadhar Housing Finance. The planned IPO will consist of a fresh share offering of up to Rs 1,000 crore and a selling offer of Rs 4,000 crore. AHFL caters to economically disadvantaged and low-tomiddle-income customers seeking small mortgage loans under ₹15 lakh. As of September 2022 and September 2023, the average loan ticket size was ₹9 lakh, with loan-to-value ratios of 57.6% and 58%, respectively. According to Crisil, Aadhar Housing Finance Limited had the highest AUM and net value among the peer companies studied in the six months ending September 30. It provides various mortgage-related loan products, including loans for residential property purchase and construction, home remodelling and extension loans, and commercial property construction and acquisition. It operates a network of 471 outlets, including 91 sales offices. Book Running Lead Managers for the IPO include ICICI Securities, Citigroup Global Markets India, Kotak Mahindra Capital, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities, and SBI Capital Markets.

Ecos Mobility and Hospitality files DRHP with SEBI to launch IPO

Mobility services provider Ecos Mobility and Hospitality, said on Friday, that it has filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with markets regulator SEBI to raise funds via initial public offering (IPO) of up to 18,000,000 equity shares of face value of ₹2 each. The company's promoters include Rajesh Loomba, Aditya Loomba, the Rajesh Loomba Family Trust, and the Aditya Loomba Family Trust. The offering consists of an offer for sale (OFS) of a maximum of 18,000,000 equity shares, comprising of up to 9,900,000 equity shares by Rajesh Loomba and up to 8,100,000 equity shares by Aditya Loomba. Equirus Capital Private Limited and IIFL Securities Limited are the Book Running Lead Managers to the issue. For over 25 years, the company has been delivering chauffeured car rentals (CCR) and employee transportation services (ETS) to corporate clients, including Fortune 500 companies across India. With a fleet exceeding 9,000 vehicles ranging from economy to luxury cars, mini-vans, and luxury coaches, the company offers a diverse selection. This includes luxury vehicles featuring brands like Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, as well as economy and premium options, alongside buses/vans. Additionally, specialty vehicles such as luggage vans, limousines, vintage cars, and those tailored for accessible transportation needs are also provided.

Raghuvir Exim files IPO papers with Sebi

Textile Company Raghuvir Exim Ltd has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The fresh capital will be used to fund expansion plans, it said. So far this year, over 30 companies have filed draft IPO papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). The company's IPO comprises fresh issue of 1.4 crore equity shares and an offer for sale (OFS) of 45 lakh equity shares by promoter Sunil Agarwal, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). At present, promoters own 100 per cent stake in the company. Going by the draft papers filed last week, proceeds from the fresh issue to the tune of Rs 113 crore will be used to set up two stitching units in Ahmedabad, while a portion will be used for general corporate purposes. The Ahmedabad-based company is engaged in the business of processing semi-finished fabrics into finished fabrics. It manufactures home furnishing products. Unistone Capital Pvt Ltd is the sole book running lead manager of the issue. The equity shares of the company will be listed on the BSE and the NSE.

Supermarket chain Patel Retail files IPO papers with SEBI

Maharashtra-based supermarket chain Patel Retail has filed preliminary papers with the capital markets regulator SEBI for fundraising through a maiden public issue. The IPO is a mix of a fresh issue of 90.18 lakh equity shares by the company and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 10.02 lakh shares by promoters Dhanji Raghavji Patel and Bechar Raghavji Patel. Dhanji Patel will offload 7.68 lakh equity shares and Bechar Patel 2.34 lakh shares via OFS. The issue includes a reservation of up to 51,000 equity shares for company employees. Prior to filing the red herring prospectus with the RoC, Patel Retail said it may consider fundraising through a private placement, preferential allotment, or rights issue of up to 5 lakh equity shares. Incorporated in FY08, Patel Retail operates a retail supermarket chain in tier-III cities and nearby suburban areas, plans to spend Rs 60 crore out of the net fresh issue proceeds for repaying debts, Rs 115 crore for working capital requirements, and the remaining funds for general corporate purposes. As of December 2023, the Patel familyowned company operates and manages 31 stores. On the financials front, Patel Retail has reported a net profit of Rs 16.4 crore for the year ended March FY23, growing 44 percent over the previous year. Revenue from operations during the same period grew by 33 percent to Rs 1,018.5 crore.

Shapoorji Pallonji Group firm Afcons Infra files draft papers to raise Rs 7,000 crore via IPO

Diversified conglomerate Shapoorji Pallonji Group-backed construction and engineering player Afcons Infrastructure Ltd has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise Rs 7,000 crore through an initial public offer (IPO). The firm will raise Rs 1,250 crore through a fresh issue and Rs 5,750 crore through offer for sale. Goswami Infratech Pvt Ltd will sell around Rs 5,750 crore worth of stake in the OFS, according to the DRHP. As of December 2023, Goswami Infratech Pvt Ltd has 72.35 percent stake while Shapoorji Pallonji and Company 16.64 percent stake in the firm. Proceeds worth Rs 150 crore from the issue will be used for capital expenditure, Rs 350 crore will be used to fund long term working capital requirement and Rs 500 crore will be used for repayment of portion of certain outstanding borrowings and acceptance availed by the company. As of December 2023, its outstanding borrowings stood at Rs 2887.59 crore. ICICI Securities, DAM Capital, Nomura, Jefferies and SBI Capital are the lead managers for the issue. The company boasts a strong track record of executing complex EPC projects, both domestically and internationally. Over the past ten financial years and up to September 30, 2023, the firm completed 76 projects across 15 countries, with a total historic executed contract value of Rs 52,200 crore.

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INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Trust Mutual Fund launches TrustMF Flexi Cap Fund

Trust Mutual Fund announced the launch of TrustMF Flexi Cap Fund, an open-ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, midcap, and smallcap stocks. The new fund offer or the NFO of the scheme will open for subscription on April 5 and close on April 19. The objective of the scheme is to provide long-term growth in capital and income to investors by actively managing investments in a diversified portfolio of equity and equity-related securities across the entire market capitalization spectrum. The scheme will be managed by Mihir Vora and Aakash Manghani. And the fund will be benchmarked to the Nifty 500 TRI Index. The exit load of 1% will be applicable if redeemed/switched out within 180 days from the date of allotment. Nil exit load if redeemed/switched out after 180 days from the date of allotment. The minimum application amount is Rs 1,000 and in multiples of any amount thereafter. The minimum amount for monthly SIP is Rs 1,000 (plus in multiple of any amount) with a minimum of six installments.

Bandhan Mutual Fund launches Bandhan Innovation Fund

Bandhan Mutual Fund has announced the launch of the Bandhan Innovation Fund, an open-ended thematic fund dedicated to investing in companies at the forefront of innovative breakthroughs. The new fund offer or the NFO of the scheme will open for subscription on April 10 and will close on April 24. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Manish Gunwani (equity investments), Brijesh Shah (debt investments), and Ritika Behera (overseas investments). The Bandhan Innovation Fund will allocate its investments across a spectrum of innovators: 35- 45% to leading innovators with substantial industry R&D investments; 35-45% to rising innovators utilizing innovation for a competitive edge; and 10- 15% to emerging innovators, those filling market gaps with disruptive products or services and showing a strong growth trajectory. The fund is ideal for investors with a long-term investment horizon and higher risk appetite, looking for diversification in their satellite portfolio and generating potential alpha.

Bandhan Mutual Fund files draft document for Nifty 500 Value 50 Index Fund

Bandhan Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for Nifty 500 Value 50 Index Fund. Bandhan Nifty 500 Value 50 Index Fund will be an open-ended scheme tracking Nifty 500 Value 50 Index. The investment objective of the scheme will be to replicate the Nifty 500 Value 50 Index by investing in securities of the Nifty 500 Value 50 Index in the same proportion/weightage with an aim to provide returns before expenses that track the total return of Nifty 500 Value 50 Index, subject to tracking errors. The scheme will offer regular and direct plans both with only growth option. The minimum application amount for lumpsum investment will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. An exit load of 0.25% will be applicable if redeemed on or before 15 days from the allotment date. Nil exit load if redeemed after 15 days from the allotment date. The maximum total expense ratio (TER) permissible under Regulation 52 (6) (b) will be up to 1%.The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 Value 50 Index. The scheme will be managed by Nemish Sheth.

Sundaram Mutual Fund files draft document for business cycle fund

Sundaram Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for a business cycle fund. Sundaram Business Cycle Fund will be an open-ended equity scheme following a business cycle-based investing theme. The investment objective of the scheme will be to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity-related securities with a focus on identifying medium-term cycles that can impact the business fundamentals. This will be done through dynamic allocation between various themes and stocks at different stages of cycles in the economy. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Ratish B Varier and Bharath S (equity investments), Dwijendra Srivastava and Sandeep Agarwal (debt investments), and Pathanjali Srinivasan (overseas investments). The scheme will offer regular and direct plans with both growth and IDCW options. The scheme will allocate 80-100% in equity and equity related instruments selected on the basis of business cycle, 0-20% in other equity and equity related instruments, 0-20% in debt and money market securities including units of debt oriented mutual fund schemes, and 0-10% in units issued by REITs & InvITs. The scheme would aim to deploy the business cycle approach in investing by identifying economic trends and investing in the themes and stocks that are likely to outperform at any given stage of the business cycle. The fund manager will consider various macroeconomic parameters (like GDP Growth, exports, interest rates, inflation etc.), High-frequency indicators (like private consumption indicators, PMI, etc.), business and consumer sentiment indicators (corporate Earnings, business confidence index, forward-looking estimates, etc.) to decide on the state of the business cycle.

Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund files draft document for Build India Fund

Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for its Build India Fund. Mahindra Manulife Build India Fund will be an open-ended equity scheme based on manufacturing and infrastructure themes. The scheme's investment objective will be to generate long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity-related securities of companies engaged in manufacturing and infrastructure themes. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against 50% S&P BSE India Manufacturing TRI and 50% S&P BSE India Infrastructure TRI (First Tier Benchmark). The scheme will be managed by Renjith Sivaram Radhakrishnan, Manish Lodha, and Pranav Nishith Patel. An exit load of 0.5% will be payable if units are redeemed/switched out up to three months from the date of allotment. No exit load if units are redeemed/switched out after three months from the date of allotment. The minimum application amount will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The scheme will offer a regular plan and a direct plan with both growth and IDCW options. It will invest 80-100% in equity and equity-related securities of companies engaged in manufacturing and infrastructure themes, 0-20% in equity and equity-related instruments of companies other than those engaged in manufacturing and infrastructure themes, 0-20% in debt and money market securities (including TREPS (Tri-Party Repo) and reverse repo in government securities), and 0-10% in units issued by REIT.

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY - LARGE CAP FUND

EQUITY - MID CAP FUND

EQUITY - SMALL CAP FUND

EQUITY - TAX SAVING FUND