Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, Global stock markets were mixed after notes from a Federal Reserve meeting showed officials expect more US interest rate hikes to fight stubborn inflation. While inflation remains persistently high, the U.S. consumer has continued to show strength. On Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, reflecting tight labor market conditions. A separate report confirmed the economy grew at 2.7 per cent solidly in the fourth quarter, though rising inventory levels were responsible for much of the increase. Minutes from the Fed's February meeting suggests that a few policymakers made the case for a 50 basis point rate hike. As a result, benchmark 10-year US bond yield is at 3.91%, the highest since early November. Meanwhile, Euro zone consumer confidence rose by 1.7 points in February from the January number, figures released on Monday showed. The European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale improved to - 19.0 this month from revised -20.7 in January. Japan's core consumer inflation hit a fresh 41-year high in January as companies passed on higher costs to households, keeping the central bank under pressure to phase out its massive stimulus programme.

Back at home, domestic markets witnessed a volatile movement on the back of negative global cues and FIIs selling. Market also got spooked by hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee as well as the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee. Besides, the underperformance of the banking and financial majors is largely weighing on sentiment, in absence of any major event. Recently, the climate experts have predicted that this year we may see monsoon deficit as there is a possibility of El Nino Phenomenon. Going forward, maintaining its guard against inflation, the Fed is expected to remain tight. The consequence of constant high interest rates will continue to cause a slowdown in demand & the earnings outlook. Market will continue to take clue form both domestic as well as global markets.

Back at home, tight movements were witnessed in commodities with marginal fall; CRB closed near 290. Gold witnessed multi week fall but the fall was weaker in silver. Energy counter is still not giving much indication of strong bounce; the downside from current level is also limited. Responding to the warmth and lackluster storage draws, gas prices plunged from a 14-year high of $10 per mmBtu in August, reaching $7 in December and low-$2 levels recently. It is expected to trade in a range of 160-200 levels. Crude oil may trade in a band of 6000-6600 levels. In bullion, gold can see further dip on rise in dollar index; most likely to touch 55200 in short term. Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manufacturing PMI and CB Consumer Confidence of US, Inflation Rate of France, GDP Growth Rate of Switzerland, Italy, Australia India and Canada, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, Unemployment Change, Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate of Germany, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, Inflation Rate of Italy etc are loads of data which will give an indication about the real health of major economies.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Automobile
  • Tata Motors has signed an agreement with ride-hailing company Uber to supply 25,000 electric vehicles (EVs). The agreement is the largest EV commitment between an automotive manufacturer and a ride-sharing platform in India.
Information Technology
  • Infosys will expand its collaboration with Microsoft, to help accelerate enterprise cloud transformation journeys worldwide. According to the Infosys Cloud Radar, enterprises can add up to $414 billion in net new profits, annually, through effective cloud adoption. The report also calculated that adopting cloud improved speed to market and the ability to discover new revenue streams and resulted in increased profit growth by up to 11.2 percent YoY.
  • MapmyIndia (C.E. Info Systems) announced the launch of its new line of Mappls Gadgets for cars and two-wheelers – including advanced Vehicle GPS trackers, Dash Cameras, In-Dash Navitainment Systems & Smart Helmet Kits.
  • Cyient announced a partnership with Thingtrax to enable manufacturers to increase efficiency and reduce costs. The partnership will enable global manufacturers to drive higher performance across their entire manufacturing operation through AI-powered data.
Construction
  • H.G. Infra has been declared as the lowest bidder (L-1) by Rail Vikas Nigam for a project worth Rs 535.15 crore. HG Infra had bid for Rs 466 crore.
  • Patel Engineering has been declared L1 by City and Industrial Development Corporation (CIDCO) and Visvesvaraya Jala Nigam (VJNL) for works including design and construction of a long treated water tunnel from Sai Village to Vindhane Village in Raigad District and for Survey, Design, Supply, Install, Test and Commission a Micro Irrigation System under Tumkur Branch Canal in the state of Karnataka.
Healthcare
  • Krsnaa Diagnostics announced that as a part of the Agreement with Department of Medical, Health & Family Welfare, Government of Uttar Pradesh (GOUP) for providing CT Scan services in the 8 District Hospitals in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the Company has inaugurated its third Diagnostics Center of the above mentioned Agreement at Kanpur Nagar.
Engineering
  • BEML has signed a MoU with DMRC led SPV for Bahrain Metro. As a part of this MoU, BEML will be responsible for manufacturing and supply of Metro Rolling Stock and DMRC will provide expertise in the fields of project development, budgeting and facilitating of contractual obligations.
Hotel
  • Lemon Tree Hotels announced its latest signing of a franchised hotel - Lemon Tree Hotel, Manali, Himachal Pradesh. The property, which shall be franchised by Lemon Tree Hotels Limited, is expected to open in June 2023.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin announced the launch of Lurasidone Hydrochloride Tablets, 20 mg, 40 mg, 60 mg, 80 mg and 120 mg, to market a generic equivalent of Latuda® Tablets of Sunovion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

CORPORATE ACTIONS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US real gross domestic product jumped by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 2.9 percent surge. Economists had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.
  • US initial jobless claims edged down to 192,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 195,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 200,000 from the 194,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US existing home sales slid 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.00 million in January after tumbling by 2.2 percent to a revised rate of 4.12 million in December. The continued decline surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 1.5 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.
  • Eurozone inflation slowed less than estimated in January and remained at an elevated level. The harmonized index of consumer prices gained 8.6 percent on a yearly basis in January, following December's 9.2 percent increase.
  • Hong Kong's consumer price index, or CPI, climbed 2.4 percent year-over-year in January, faster than the 2.0 percent rise in December. Further, this was the strongest inflation since September 2022, when prices had risen 4.4 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

SAMVARDHANA MOTHERSON INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
CMP: 82.50
Target Price: 94
Upside: 14%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 106.17/61.85
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 55905.48
  • EPS (Rs.) 1.52
  • P/E Ratio (times) 54.28
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.70
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.53
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The Company is a diversified global manufacturing specialist and one of the world’s largest and fastestgrowing automotive suppliers for OEMs. It supports its customers from more than 300 facilities across 41 countries, with a team of over 150,000 dedicated professionals. It is among the top 25 largest automotive suppliers worldwide. Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV (SMRPBV) is a 100% subsidiary of SAMIL and is present in all major global automotive production hubs, with 109 facilities spread across 29 countries.
  • Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV (SMRPBV), a 100 % subsidiary of the company, has entered into an agreement to acquire 100% stake in SAS Autosystemtechnik GmbH (Germany) (SAS) from Faurecia, a company of the FORVIA Group. It has strong customer relationships with leading European and American OEMs, some of which span almost 3 decades. The orders in hand already secured are of over approximately 3 billion euros in cumulative net revenues over the next 3 years.
  • Acquisition of SAS would enhance integration in the automotive supply chain, thereby increasing customer proximity. It would bring Product diversification across geographies with increased exposure to electric vehicle programs.
  • It has entered into a partnership with majority stake (51%) in Saddles International Automotive and Aviation Interiors. With the acquisition of Saddles International, it would take a step towards diversifying its current business by entering the upholstery market for applications such as passenger vehicle seat covers, gear knob covers, and wrapping of door panels, etc., supporting the company's vision of increasing content per car.
  • It has entered into an agreement with Ichikoh Industries in Japan to buy 100% stake of its mirror business. This would add three manufacturing facilities across Japan and China and 260 patents to its IP portfolio.
  • In Q3FY2023, the revenues were up by 11% QoQ and 25% YoY. EBITDA up 13% QoQ and 44% YoY and PAT grew by 85% QoQ and 388% YoY on account of production volume recovery and improved realisations.

Risk

  • Semiconductor availability
  • Geo-political issues

Valuation

The company has diverse business model in terms of product mix and geographies. During the quarter, it witnessed recovery in volume with chip shortage and supply chain improving in most parts of the world. The recent acquisition and partnership indicates future growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 94 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 2.7x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.34.82E

P/B Chart

THERMAX LIMITED
CMP: 2132.90
Target Price: 2492
Upside: 17%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 2678.50/1653.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 25414.85
  • EPS (Rs.) 33.30
  • P/E Ratio (times) 64.05
  • P/B Ratio (times) 7.17
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.42
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Thermax Limited, a leading energy and environment solutions provider, is one of the few companies in the world that offers integrated innovative solutions in the areas of heating, cooling, power, water and waste management, air pollution control and chemicals. Thermax has manufacturing facilities in India, Europe and Southeast Asia.
  • As on 31 December 2022, Thermax Group had an order balance of Rs 9,859 crore, up 33% YoY. Order booking for the quarter was 10% lower at Rs 2,204 crore. The order book last year was higher due to an order worth Rs 830 crore for flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) systems.
  • Its major order received from agro-chemical company for setting-up power plant on EPC basis. Steady flow of enquiries was seen from key sectors like cement, steel and chemical.
  • The company is seeing good momentum in both domestic as well as international businesses. Going ahead, management expects a 70:30 split between the domestic and international businesses.
  • The company sees good opportunities in exports market such as Europe, Africa etc. along with healthy inquiry pipeline from biomass, waste to energy, etc. China + 1 strategy is showing some pickup with orders for Waste to energy equipment, which earlier went to China is now coming to India.
  • The government capex push in the Budget and support to green technologies is expected to further spur the company’s clean energy portfolio.
  • It has reported 59% YoY rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 126 crore on a 27% YoY increase in consolidated operating revenue to Rs 2,049 crore for the third quarter of FY 2022-23. The PAT was driven by good performance in all three segments - Energy, Environment and Chemical; last year's margins were affected by higher commodity and freight costs, which have now stabilised.

Risk

  • Fluctuation in commodity prices
  • Slowdown in economy

Valuation

According to the management, the company is entering a phase where its mix of work would change over the next couple of years with opportunities emerging in the climate and energy transition space. More money will be going into new energy areas. It created a new energy division two years ago to work on these areas. With the focus on new energy, the company would be investing in new products, engineering capability and people. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 2492 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BVx of 6.8x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.366.48E

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

GAIL (INDIA) LIMITED (GAIL)

The stock closed at Rs 103.45 on 24th February, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 83 on 26th September, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 115.65 on 19th Apr, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 94.25.

Stock can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern on broader charts. Last week, stock once again managed to take support at its 200 days exponential moving average and bounce sharply. The recent up move in prices is observed along with marginally higher volumes, which suggest long build up into the stock. The upward momentum is likely to continue in upcoming sessions as well. Therefore, one can buy stock on dips in the range of 100-101 levels for the upside target of 111-113 levels with SL below 94 levels.

RADICO KHAITAN LIMITED (RADICO)

The stock closed at Rs 1172.20 on 24th February, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 723.20 on 12th May, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs.1230 on 06th Feb, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1022.

After testing its 52 week high of 1230, the stock has witnessed profit booking at higher levels and once again retraced back towards 1080 levels. The pull back in prices was seen with formation of lower high pattern. However last week once again momentum was seen picking up as prices have given sharp recovery above the falling trend line of downward sloping channel. The rising volumes along with rise in price suggest for next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 1150-1160 levels for the upside target of 1260-1275 levels with SL below 1080 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets witnessed sharp selloff in the week gone by, as broader indices closed in red zone, with cut of more than 2% on weekly basis. Metal, media and financial services were major loser on the sectoral front. From the derivate front, the highest call open interest concentration for nifty is seen at 17600 strike, followed by 17700 and 17500 strikes respectively, while on put side, the highest concentration in open interest was seen at 17000 strike followed by 17500 and 17400 strikes respectively. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 12.75% while that for put options closed at 13.89%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 15.08%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.42 lower than the previous week. From the technical front, Nifty has slipped back below its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts, which is placed at 17590 levels. For the upcoming week, if nifty slides below 17400 levels then we might witness further selling pressure, which could move Nifty towards 17200-17100 zone. On the contrarian side, 17700-17800 zone will act as a strong resistance area for the index. Traders may expect stock specific moves in upcoming week with bias likely to remain in favour of bears.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

Note: All equity derivative data as on 23rd February, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric NCDEX Apr is expected to trade mixed to higher on improved festive buying in local market. Buying activities are improving in wake of festive and wedding season ahead. Arrivals have been down in Feb’23 as compared to last year due to lower crop in Telangana and Maharashtra. Farmers in Telangana are not showing interest in bringing arrivals due to lower realization. Farmers are demanding for setting up MSP on turmeric in order to get better prices. About 14.6 thousand tonnes of arrivals were reported at major APMC mandies across India so far in Feb’23 as compared to 37.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. Export demand of turmeric is also improving gradually that will push up the prices in near term. Turmeric Apr contract is expected to hold the support of 6700 levels and likely to move up towards 7600 levels in near term.

Jeera NCDEX Mar futures are likely to trade in a range unless supply of new crop is picked up. Stocks are tighter with millers as well with stockists that are forcing them to buy at every dip in the prices. Prices are holding strong support near 29000 and buying is visible when prices come near to this level. Jeera production is expected to be down by 5-8% in year 2023 due to fall in area in Gujarat. Losses in jeera are looking limited due to better demand outlook. Improved festive demand and export enquires will keep the market sentiments up. Jeera export dropped 22% Y-o-Y to 1.78 lakh tonnes in year 2022 due to fall in imports in China. China imported only 37.9 thousand tonnes in year 2022 as compared to 62.8 thousand tonnes of previous year. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 29000-34000.

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr prices are likely to remain under pressure due to improved supply prospects for upcoming season. Demand has been subdued as major buyers and spices millers are avoiding bulk buying with rising supplies of new arrivals in major mandies. Total production of dhnaiya was estimated at 8 lakh tonnes in year 2021-22 and expected to increase up to 9.5 lakh tonnes in year 2022-23 due to better yield prospects amid higher acreages. Dhaniya NCDEX Apr Prices are likely to trade in range of 6500-7400.

BULLIONS

Gold prices posted negative returns in the week after a drop in U.S. weekly jobless claims numbers favoured the Federal Reserve’s stance that interest rates would have to go higher to control inflation. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a tight labour market and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the country’s gross domestic product increased at a revised 2.7% annualised rate in 2022’s fourth quarter, revised down from 2.9% reported last month. While GDP numbers missed expectations by a bit, the lowered drop in jobless claims keeps the Fed in the driver’s seat such that they can keep raising rates. Minutes from the Fed’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting on Wednesday showed policymakers agreed rates would need to move higher, but that the shift to smaller hikes would let them calibrate more closely with incoming data. Fed fund futures now price in three more hikes to 5.25-5.50% scaling back expectations for future rate cuts. Curbing inflation is the central bank’s main priority, with the Fed giving little indication that it plans to pause its rate hiking spree. High interest rates dampen gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge while raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. On Comex Gold prices has been in the downtrend and continuously facing resistance near $1830, but on the downside it may target $1780. Silver may trade in the range of $19.800-$22.650. Ahead in the week, gold prices may continue to witness selling and the possible trading range would be 52600-56700. Silver will also witness selling pressure, where it may take support near 61500 and could face resistance near 64800.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices witnessed selling throughout the week as investors became more concerned that recent data will prompt more aggressive interest rate increases by central banks, pressuring economic growth and fuel demand. Minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed a majority of Fed officials agreed the risks of high inflation remained a "key factor" shaping monetary policy and warranted continued rate hikes until it was controlled. While better U.S. economic data should mean better oil demand, the concern is that this forces the Fed to over tighten monetary policy to bring inflation under control. The U.S. dollar Index gained for a second straight session, making greenback denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Other U.S. economic reports, however, showed some troubling signs for the world's biggest oil consumer. Sales of existing homes fell in January to their lowest since October 2010. Demand for crude oil is seasonally lower with major U.S. refineries deep in maintenance season. A massive snowstorm in the U.S. Northern Plains and Upper Midwest has also hit fuel demand, with 3,500 flights delayed or cancelled across the country so far, according to FlightAware.com. Ahead in the week, crude oil may witness range trading in the range of 6000-6700 levels. Natural gas witnessed positive move in the week but still it is weak. The higher close came after the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. utilities pulled 71 bcf, or billion cubic feet, from U.S. natural gas storage during the week ended Feb. 17 for power generation and heating purposes, versus an expected draw of 67 bcf. Ahead in the week, prices may witness short-covering and the possible trading range would be 160-230.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias on prospects of prolonged interest rates hikes in the United States stalling economic growth and crimping demand for the metal. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed policymakers will likely stick with interest rate increases to tame inflation, but favoured slowing the pace of the hikes. Copper may trade in the range of 740-775 levels. After reopening its economy by China, the real consumption is not expected to pick up until next month or in the second quarter. However, mining supply disruptions across the globe worsened with the suspension of ore processing at a key mine in Panama. Copper supply in Indonesia, Peru and Chile is also facing disruptions, although analysts and traders believe they are not severe enough to shift the copper concentrate market balance into a deficit this year. Zinc can trade in the range of 260-280 levels. The global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised deficit of 66,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Lead can move in the range of 176-190 levels. The global lead market flipped to a deficit of 6,100 tonnes in December from a revised surplus of 9,200 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-220. Market has gradually digested the impact of production cuts in Yunnan. The inventory of aluminium ingots continued to increase, and the supply in the spot market was relatively abundant. Steel long (Mar) is likely to trade in the range of 47000-49600 levels on NCDEX with bearish bias.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton/Kapas prices are expected to trade sideways to down due to muted industrial buying. Higher production outlook of cotton and heavier stocks with farmers is likely to pull down the prices further. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption of the Ministry of Textiles estimates the crop size during the current season at 337.23 lakh bales (170 kg each), which is almost 8% more than the previous season. Consumption by textile mills, including the small-scale units, is likely to be 295 lakh bales in the current cotton season whereas exports are estimated at 35 lakh bales. Kapas Apr NCDEX prices are likely to trade in range of 1570-1700. MCX cotton is likely to trade in range of 62000-64000.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Mar futures are likely to trade mixed to down due to muted demand at physical market. Demand in cattle feed industry has been down wherein most of stockists are going for the hand to mouth buying in wake of increased availability of alternative feed meals and cake like mustard seed oil cake. Supplies of cotton seed oil cake is likely to higher as farmers are holding heavy stocks of cotton in anticipation of better price outlook. Prices are likely to trade in range of 2560-2730.

Guar seed Mar futures are expected to trade on weaker note due to limited buying in local market. Season export demand of gum is likely to be limited in March that will keep major buyers away from bulk buying of guar. However, losses are looking limited in guar due to reduced supply in local market. Arrivals have also dropped at major trading centers as farmers are holding in expectation of further rise in prices. Technically, Guar seed prices will honor the support of 5650 and will honor the resistance of 6300 in near term. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11200-14000 levels.

Mentha oil Mar contract is likely to trade sideways to higher on improved demand outlook. Major focus will be on upcoming sowing numbers as sowing is likely to commence in western UP after the harvest of rabi crop. Above normal temperature in northern part of India is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely. Supplies have been tighter due to offseason period of arrivals. Prices may witness upside recovery with support of 1010 and will honor the resistance of 1070 levels in near term.

Castor seed Mar prices are likely to trade down due to improve supplies with advancement of harvesting activities. Sluggish export demand is still a major concern for castor oil traders as domestic stocks are surging up with fall in export. Castor oil export has slumped 16% Y-o-Y to 581.75 thousand tonnes during Jan-Dec’22 due to slowdown in economic activities in China. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6400-7300 levels.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 786.60
M*.Low: 760.40

It closed at Rs. 763.65 on 23rd Feb 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 754.77. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.91. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.768 for a target of Rs. 745 with the stop loss of 780

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 6770.00
M*.Low: 6070.00

It closed at Rs. 6257.00 on 24th Feb 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6184.10. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.411. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 6450 for a target of Rs. 5800 with the stop loss of 6780.

TURMERIC NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 8730.00
M*.Low: 6800.00

It closed at Rs. 7204.00 on 23rd Feb 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6965.15 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.880. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 7300 for a target of Rs. 6850 with the stop loss of 7450.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • Paddy procurement in this Kharif season has crossed 700 Lakh metric ton mark and MSP of about Rs 1,45,845 crore has been paid to farmers : Consumer Affairs Ministry.
  • Sugar production in the 2022-23 season (October-September) is estimated to decline by 7% to 33.5 million tonne from the previous year’s 35.9 MT, mainly, due to lower cane yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka: Indian Sugar Mills Association.
  • Global copper mine production increased marginally by 3.3% to 21.81 million tonne over January-December, 2022 against 21.10 mnt seen in the same period last year, as per the International Copper Study Group.
  • Centre says domestic coal production to touch 1.31 billion tonnes by FY25. India’s domestic coal production has increased by over 16 per cent to 698.25 million tonnes in the current financial year.
  • The global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised deficit of 66,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group) showed.
  • The global lead market flipped to a deficit of 6,100 tonnes in December from a revised surplus of 9,200 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed.
  • India’s Goods and Services Tax revenues grew 12.7% in January 2023 to hit almost ₹1.59 lakh crore, the second highest monthly collections on record, as per revised figures from the Finance Ministry.
  • FCI sells 5.08 lakh tn wheat to bulk consumers in 3rd round of e-auction. In the first two rounds, nearly 13 lakh tonnes of wheat have been sold under the Open Market Sale Scheme to bulk users as part of steps to cool down retail prices of the foodgrain and wheat flour.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Tight moves were witnessed in commodities with marginal fall; CRB closed near 290 levels. Gold witnessed multi week fall but the fall was weaker in silver. Gold traded near 56000 levels with downside bias as the dollar hit a six-week high on fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve, with focus turned to economic data for more cues on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. The minutes of the Fed’s February meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that most members of the monetary policy committee supported raising interest rates for longer this year. But their calls for 25 basis point hikes were regarded as outdated, given that data after the Fed’s meeting showed that inflation remained much stickier than expected. Rising interest rates push up the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and other precious metals. Natural gas saw no respite in the fall and closed in the red territory. An unusually warm start to the 2022/23 winter season has led to considerably less heating demand in the United States versus the norm, leaving more gas in storage than initially thought. During the week ended Feb. 10, inventories in U.S. gas storage stood at 2.266tcf, or trillion cubic feet, up 17% from the year-ago level of 1.938 tcf, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday. Crude prices slipped for nonstop two week. Oil prices fell by $2 per barrel to their lowest in two weeks on Wednesday, as investors became more concerned that recent data will prompt more aggressive interest rate increases by central banks, pressuring economic growth and fuel demand. In base metals, copper and zinc prices augmented amid some signs of resilience in U.S. business activity, as well as optimism over a recovery in China. whereas aluminum and lead prices slashed. Flows of Russian material into LME warehouses would likely have a bearish impact on aluminum prices.

Castor witnessed sharp fall for two week on lower offtake from the market. Cotton traded in range whereas cotton oil seed cake prices dragged down. North India’s cotton yarn market has seen an improvement in sentiments, with trade sources reporting that demand for cotton yarn has already picked up. The garment industry is also expected to perform better as global buyers are expected to place large orders by mid-2023. Guar gum prices moved down, on the contrary Guarseed prices moved up, sent guargum and Guarseed prices higher. However, the upside was limited amid increase in supply from producing regions.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Lead………… Mini futures contracts At MCX

Lead is majorly used in car batteries, mobiles and e-bikes. Its corrosion resistant quality makes it suitable to store sulfuric acid. Due to its malleability and anti-corrosion characteristics, it is also used in building construction. Car batteries account for around 85% of global lead demand.

Lead Mini futures contracts At MCX

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has launched the Lead Mini futures contracts again with effect from February 22, 2023 onwards. Currently March, April, May & June 2023 contracts are available for trade. The decision aims to encourage broader participation of investors in the commodity derivatives market. This is significantly positive for small traders & investor of base metals. Mini contracts got discontinued in January 2020. Before that, they contributed nearly 25 percent to total base metals futures average daily turnover. Arbitragers who were very active in mini contracts (before January 2020) due to potential price difference trade in mini contracts vs main contracts are expected to increase activities in the commodity derivative market and increase overall average daily turnover.

Global lead market

The global lead market flipped to a deficit of 6,100 tonnes in December from a revised surplus of 9,200 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. For all of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 99,000 tonnes compared with a surplus of 44,000 tonnes in 2021.

After rising by 4.6 percent in 2021, global demand for refined lead metal is forecast to increase by 1.4 percent to 12.6 million MT in 2023, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The ILZSG expects world refined lead supply to fall by 0.3 percent to 12.34 million MT in 2022, with a 1.8 percent rise to 12.56 million MT anticipated in 2023.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian The Indian Rupee edged lower for the fourth straight week after the US dollar rose more than 3.5% in February backed by strong economic data. Apparently, market sentiment in the rupee now hit the weakest level since early January when the Rupee hit a high of 80.90 as well. However, the volatility in the USDINR pair extracted from the at-the-money (ATM) volatility still stands nearly in a range between 4.50% - 4.80%, it’s lowest since last July. Lower volatility is likely to keep the USDINR pair in a narrow range. Now the RBI intervention is a key factor in whether the USDINR pair will extend its rally beyond 83.00 or not. Meanwhile, the dollar index rose to a multi-week high of 104.50 pushing EURUSD to plunge to a six-week low of 1.06. At the same time, EURINR breaches a key level of 88.00 which may lead to further weakness in the euro-rupee pair. Additionally pound-rupee too fell below 100.00 despite some upbeat economic data from the UK. Going forward next week we think the weakness in EURINR and GBPINR will continue in the wake of a limited depreciation in the rupee as well. Dollar index was mixed amid resilient US economic data. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. Locally, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for January said the Indian economy is on track to achieve 7% growth in Fy23.

USDINR (MAR)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.40 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.30 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.71 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.97.

One can buy near 82.70 for the target of 83.40 with the stop loss of 82.40.

GBPINR (MAR) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 98.40 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 100.30 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 100.17. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.82.

One can sell near 99.75 for the target of 98.75 with the stop loss of 100.25.

EURINR (MAR) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 87.32 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 88.70 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 88.70. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.13.

One can sell near 88.25 for the target of 87.25 with the stop loss of 89.75.

JPYINR (MAR) ) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 61.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 62.60 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 62.60. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.25.

One can buy near 61.50 for the target of 62.50 with the stop loss of 61.00.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

Rishabh Instruments gets Sebi nod to float IPO

Energy efficiency company Rishabh Instruments has received markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approval for the proposed initial public offer (IPO). The market regulator has given a final observation letter for the same. In Sebi's parlance a final observation letter implies a go-ahead for the public issue. The Nashik-based company is a global energy efficiency solution company focused on electrical automation, metering and measurement, precision engineered products with diverse applications across industries including power, automotive and industrial sectors. The company had filed preliminary IPO papers with Sebi in December last year. The issue consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 75 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 9,417,500 equity shares by promoter and selling shareholders. The proceeds from the fresh issuance worth Rs 59.50 crores will be used towards financing the cost towards the expansion of Nashik manufacturing facility and general corporate purposes. Rishabh Instruments’ revenue from operations increased by 20% from Rs 390 crore in fiscal 2021 to Rs 470 crore in fiscal 2022, driven by increase in revenue from sale of goods and from sale of services, whereas profit after tax grew 38% to Rs 49 crore in FY22. For the six months ended September 30, 2022 revenue from operations stood at Rs 261 crore and profit after tax stood at Rs 17 crore.

Joyalukkas to make some changes in books, calls off Rs 2,300-crore IPO plan

Kerala-based jewellery retail chain Joyalukkas India Ltd has withdrawn the plan to launch a Rs 2,300 crore (($278 million) initial public offering (IPO), as per a document shared on the website of the market regulator. The company, which operates 85 showrooms under the 'Joyalukkas' brand across 68 cities in India, had filed the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) in February last year. In the pre-IPO document, it stated that the proceeds from the issue worth Rs 1,400 crore will be used to repay debt. The firm had also planned to use Rs 463.90 crore for financing the opening of new showrooms.

Spectrum Talent Management files draft papers with NSE for IPO

Talent management company Spectrum Talent Management has filed its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the National Stock Exchange of India to seek its approval for raising funds from the primary market through an initial public offering (IPO). The company is headquartered in Delhi and has a corporate office in Noida. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of 60,49,600 equity shares and an offer for sale of 5,99,200 equity shares with a face value of 10 per share. The company intends to use the proceeds from the IPO primarily for acquisitions of companies in similar/complementary areas and working capital for expanding the business. The firm has registered topline revenue of around Rs. 584 crores and profit after tax of Rs. 19.97 crores on consolidated basis as of December 31st 2022. It has deployed more than 15,000 employees and more than 5300 NAPS/NATS employees as of December 2022. The company has appointed Beeline Capital Advisors and Sarthi Capital Advisors as the book-running lead managers for the IPO and Systematix Corporate Services as advisor to the issue. The IPO is subject to regulatory approvals, market conditions, and other considerations.

Qualcomm & Infosys-backed ideaForge Tech, NBFC co Akme Fintrade file for IPO

Mumbai-based dronemaker ideaForge Technology Ltd has filed draft papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise Rs 300 crore through fresh issue of shares. The IPO, with a face value of Rs 10 each, also consists of an offer for sale by promoter and institutional shareholders. These include American semiconductor maker Qualcomm, Export-Import Bank of India, and US-based venture capital firm Celesta Capital. In total, 13 investors will sell up to 4,869,712 shares through the OFS in the public offer, according to the draft prospectus. Florintree Advisors, led by former Blackstone India head Mathew Cyriac, is the single largest public shareholder, with a 12.4% stake. Celesta Capital is the next with a 13.4% stake. Software major Infosys Ltd also owns a 4.4% stake in the dronemaker, according to the shareholding data on the draft prospectus. Qualcomm owns 3.8% stake through its affiliate Qualcomm Asia Pacific Pte. Among promoters, Ashish Bhat will sell a partial stake in the IPO. He holds 16.62% stake in the company. Proceeds from the fresh issue of shares will be utilised to repay certain outstanding loans, invest in product development, and fund working capital requirements. As of November 2022, the consolidated debt of the company was Rs 130 crore. HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and EXIM Bank are among the lenders to the company.

Crayons Advertising files DRHP with NSE Emerge for IPO

Advertising agency Crayons Advertising has filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with NSE Emerge for its initial public offering (IPO). The issue comprises fresh issuance of up to 64,30,000 equity shares of a face value of Rs 10. A three-and-a-half-decade-old company, Crayons Advertising is promoted by Kunal Lalani. The company's services span from brand strategy, creative solutions, events & activations, digital media, and traditional media planning and buying. The proceeds from the IPO will be used in building infrastructure and cutting-edge technology for expansion (Rs 15.28 crore) and funding working capital requirements (Rs 14.50 crore), the company said in a release. The company's net worth is about Rs 43 crore and reported revenue of Rs 118 crore for the period ended September 2022. Profit after tax came in at Rs 6.55 crore for the same period. The agency's earnings per share (basic and diluted) stood at 29.11. For the fiscal year 2022, the company reported a net profit of Rs 1 crore and revenue of Rs 194 crore.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

SBI Mutual Fund launches SBI Dividend Yield Fund

SBI Mutual Fund announced the launch of SBI Dividend Yield Fund, an open-ended equity scheme that will invest predominantly in a well-diversified portfolio of equity and equity-related instruments of dividend yielding companies. The new fund offer (NFO) is open, and it will close for subscription on March 6. The firsttier benchmark of the fund is the NIFTY 500 TRI. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide investors with opportunities for capital appreciation and/or dividend distribution by investing predominantly in a well-diversified portfolio of equity and equity related instruments of dividend yielding companies, the press release said. This is proposed to be achieved by investing in businesses across market capitalisation, be style agnostic with no sector bias, with attractive dividend yields plus potential growth in dividends, and aim to achieve an aggregate dividend yield that is at least 50% higher than that of the Nifty 50 Index. The scheme will consider dividend-paying stocks that have paid dividends or repurchased shares in at least one of the previous three fiscal years, the fund house added.

Navi Mutual Fund launches Navi ELSS Tax Saver Nifty 50 Index Fund

Navi Mutual Fund has announced the launch of the Navi ELSS Tax Saver Nifty 50 Index Fund, a passive ELSS tax-saver fund. The New Fund Offer will commence on February 14 and conclude on February 28. With an expense ratio of 0.12% under direct plan, it will be the lowest cost tax saving ELSS fund in India. Being a tax saving mutual fund scheme, it will have a mandatory lock-in period of three years. There will be no exit-load on withdrawal post the expiry of the lock-in period. Investors can start investing with as low as Rs 500. Recently, SEBI had issued guidelines which enabled mutual fund houses in India with an existing active tax-saver ELSS scheme to launch a passive ELSS scheme post restricting inflows in the active scheme. With the launch of the Navi ELSS Tax Saver Nifty 50 Index Fund, Navi will be the first mutual fund in India to take advantage of these guidelines.

Mutual funds' collection through NFO drops 38% in 2022

Mutual funds' collection through new fund offerings (NFOs) remained subdued in 2022, with asset management companies (AMCs) garnering over Rs 62,000 crore through new schemes, which was 38% less compared to 2021. However, higher number of NFOs were launched in 2022 compared to the preceding year. A total of 228 new schemes were floated last year, which was way higher than 140 launched in 2021, according to the data compiled by Morningstar India. In the year 2022, fund managers focused on passive funds and fixed income categories like fixed maturity plans. In fact, number of fixed income NFOs seem to have doubled in 2022 over the previous year. According to the data, a total of 179 open-end funds and 49 closed-end funds were launched in the calendar year 2022, and cumulatively, these funds garnered Rs 62,187 crore.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 23/02/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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