In the weak gone by, global stock market witnessed a volatile trade as investor risk appetite was dashed by worries that the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy will remain in place for longer than anticipated. Actually, in the recent meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would leave interest rates unchanged, but forecasted another rate hike before the end of the year. The US central bank also revised economic projections higher with a warning that battle against inflation was far from over. The Bank of England paused its campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes , mirroring the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave the U.S. benchmark interest rate untouched at a 22-year high. The Bank of England surprised markets by holding rates steady at 5.25% after 14 consecutive hikes. U.K. inflation unexpectedly fell in August to 6.7%. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at minus 0.1%, as expected, but pledged flexibility in its policies. As per the Bank of Japan , its economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being, supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand” after the pandemic. Going forward, Investors will continue to watch central banks commentary around the path of inflation and future of monetary policy.
Back at home, domestic markets witnessed a volatile trade following a hawkish stance by the Fed chair and a prolonged high interest rate trajectory which is not positive for a slowing global economy. Besides, rising oil prices and erratic rainfall kept investors cautious in the market. Recently, JPMorgan said it will include Indian government bonds in its widely tracked emerging market debt index. This inclusion is likely to attract a large pool of foreign capital into Indian bond market. The index provider will add the securities starting June 28, 2024. India will have a maximum weight of 10% on the index, according to a statement. Going forward, uncertain global cues and persistent selling by FIIs are likely to keep markets under pressure in the near term.
On the commodity market front, the CRB index experienced a temporary halt at 325 during a critical moment, which was the Federal Interest Rate Decision. The Dollar index and US Treasury yields saw notable increases, signaling expectations of a higher interest rate environment in the long term and the anticipation of another rate hike in 2023. Gold and silver initially saw gains but later leveled off and closed in a sideways trading range. U.S. energy data, showing crude inventories aligning with expectations, had minimal impact on energy markets. Base metal prices fell amid concerns of prolonged high U.S. interest rates potentially triggering a recession. Prices declined further as the U.S. dollar and bond yields surged after the Federal Reserve hinted at another rate hike this year. In agriculture, castor seed prices briefly stabilized near 6200, while cotton oil seeds cake and guar gum futures declined due to increased supply. Turmeric prices dipped on improved crop conditions, while jeera saw renewed buying driven by domestic demand and lower inventories. China's increased dhaniya purchases from India pushed exports to around 11.3 thousand tonnes in June’23, compared to 2.4 thousand tonnes the previous year.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The bank has delivered significant growth in business and improvement in assets quality. Going forward, the robust economic activities and pick-up in the credit growth is expected to drive the future growth of the bank. The bank is focusing on digital transformation which is expected to complete in next two to three year, this would further drive the business growth and bring help reduce operating cost. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.120 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/BV of 1.00x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs. 119.77.
The company has reported a robust performance of the yet another quarter. It has 57 ongoing projects across segments, with a total developable area of around 77 msf. With number of its newly launched projects in Mumbai, Hyderabad and Delhi (NCR), the management of the company is optimistic that its value would increase going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.710 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BV of 2.65x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.267.75.
The stock closed at Rs.3604 on 22nd September, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.2926.10 on 26th September, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs.3633.75 on 22nd September, 2023, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.3350
Steady recovery has been witnessed in the stock since last few months as prices can be seen recovering with formation of higher bottom pattern on weekly charts. Last week, the stock has made its 52 week high and has managed to give a fresh break above the key resistance level of 3600.Technically a fresh breakout has been observed above the symmetrical triangle pattern along with positive divergences on as stock is holding well above its all important moving averages on short term interval as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 3595-3605 levels for the upside target of 3900-3950 levels with SL below3400 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.1783 on 22nd September, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.1156 on 28th September, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.1875.65 on 04th September, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1547.
After a prolong consolidation phase of nearly nine months, the stock has managed to give break above its key resistance level of 1700. Since then the stock took a breather and seen consolidating in a range of 1700-1850 from past two weeks. At current juncture, the stock has formed a Bullish Flag pattern on short term charts while on broader charts a fresh breakout has already been observed above the Cup & Handle pattern. The momentum is likely to carry towards 2100 zone as follow up buying is expected after a fresh breakout. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1760-1785 levels for the upside target of 2050-2100 levels with SL below 1550 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
Charts by Reliable software
Nifty experienced a decline of over 2%, whereas Banknifty fell by more than 3%, demonstrating significant underperformance. Profit booking was evident throughout the market, with notable losers are the financial services, metal and pharmaceutical sectors last week. When delving into the derivative data for Nifty, the most substantial call writing activity was observed at the 19,800 and 20,000 strike levels. Conversely, the highest open interest for put options was concentrated at the 19,000 strike level followed by 19,700 strike. Turning our focus to Banknifty, the 45,000 strike exhibited the highest call open interest, closely followed by the 45,200 strike. On the put side, the 44,500 strike held the highest open interest, followed by 44,000. In terms of implied volatility (IV), call options for Nifty settled at 9.72%, while put options concluded at 10.63%. The Nifty VIX, which serves as a gauge of market volatility, closed the week at 10.82%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 0.87 for the week. Looking ahead to the upcoming week, it is anticipated that Nifty's trading range will be confined within the levels of 19,800 and 19,400. The prevailing sentiment suggests considering a "sell on rise" strategy, provided Nifty trade remains below the 19,800 level.
|
|
|
|
|
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways to down on muted domestic as well as export demand. Export enquires have been sluggish at prevailing levels that will reflect as weakness in prices. Sowing activities almost completed in across India and crop condition has been satisfactory. Major focus is on crop progress and good rainfall in Telanaga and Maharashtra in Sep is likely to facilitate the crop condition that will weigh on market sentiments. Export demand has been subdued as India exported about 18.35 thousand tonnes in June’23 against the 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. India exported about 57.7 thousand tonnes during Apr-June’23 as compared to the 49.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. Bangladesh, Morocco and China remained the largest buyer of Indian turmeric. However, shrinking arrivals at major trading centers will cap the losses. Total arrivals of turmeric were reported at 5912 tonnes so far in Sep’23 as compared to 9000 tonnes of previous year. Turmeric Prices are expected to trade in the range of 12300-16200 levels.
Jeera futures are likely to trade on positive bias due to supply concerns in the market. Festive demand has improved whereas supply of premium quality of jeera is limited in the market that is supporting the firmness in prices. About 4.2 thousand tonnes of jeera arrived so far in Sep at major APMC mandies across India as compared to 10.1 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders as Indian jeera prices remained un competitive in global market that kept overseas demand subdued. Official export data for July- Aug is due that will decide the further trend in prices. India exported about 9.2 thousand tonnes of jeera in June as compared to 20.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. Going forward, prices are expected to move up in the wake of festive demand ahead. Apart from that sowing of new crop will also commence in coming weeks that also will be major price driver for jeera. Jeera Prices are likely to trade in range of 58200-63500 levels.
Dhaniya NCDEX Oct prices are likely to trade higher with increased export demand. Shrinking supplies at major trading centers and robust export demand will keep prices elevated in near term. India exported about 11.3 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in June’23 as compared to 2.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. China, Malaysia and UAE have been the major buyers of Indian coriander in year 2023. Going forward, prices are expected to move up in wake of price seasonality. Expectation of rise in festive demand will support firmness in prices. Apart from that sowing of new crop will also commence in coming weeks that will give direction to the prices. Area under dhaniya is projected to rise in wake of fair return in dhaniya. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7000-7700 levels.
Gold prices experienced a turbulent week marked by negative returns, largely influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. This stance led to a surge in the U.S. dollar's value and Treasury yields, with the dollar approaching a six-month high and 10-year Treasury yields reaching a 16-year peak. Market sentiment was reflected in the CME FedWatch tool, which suggested a 45% probability of an additional rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the following year, as well as a roughly 44% chance of some easing in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, investors also analyzed the BOJ's decision to maintain ultra-low interest rates. These indicators would provide valuable insights into economic trends and sentiment in these regions, potentially influencing investment decisions. Despite a cooling trend in job growth, U.S. jobless claims reached an eight-month low, underscoring persistent labor market tightness. Additionally, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported a marginal increase in its holdings, now totaling 878.83 tonnes. In summary, the week in gold markets was characterized by volatility and negative returns due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which impacted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Market expectations regarding future rate hikes and easing were reflected in the CME FedWatch tool, and investors closely monitored global economic data and central bank decisions to inform their investment strategies. Comex Gold is stuck between 1940-1880 levels, awaiting a breakout, while Silver shows potential for a rise to 24.66 with support at 22.20. Ahead in the week prices of Gold on MCX may trade in the wider range of 58500-60000 levels and Silver may witness both side.
Crude oil prices saw a decline following the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated decision to maintain interest rates but adopt a more hawkish tone by projecting a rate increase by year-end. Notably, Brent remained in a technically overbought state for a 14th consecutive day, the longest such streak since 2012. Federal Reserve policymakers still anticipate the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year within the 5.50%-5.75% range, only slightly above the current range. Heightened interest rates aimed at curbing inflation can potentially slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Despite this, energy markets exhibited minimal response to U.S. energy data indicating that crude inventories fell in line with expectations during the previous week. In the UK, surprising data revealed a decrease in inflation for August, with the consumer price index dropping by 0.1 percentage point to 6.7%, marking its lowest level since February 2022. In response to this decline, Goldman Sachs has anticipated that the Bank of England will likely maintain its current interest rates unchanged during its upcoming meeting. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade in the range of 7100-7800 levels, where buying near support and selling near resistance is advised. Natural gas prices faced downward pressure due to reports indicating that Chevron Corp and labor unions in Australia were nearing an agreement brokered by regulators to resolve strikes at LNG export facilities. Additionally, the weekly EIA natural gas inventories increased by +64 bcf, aligning closely with the anticipated rise of +65 bcf. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade with bearish bias and the possible trading range would be 195-235 levels.
Base metals may trade in the range with bearish bias as Mainland China's economic growth remains uneven and the U.S. dollar's strength continues to cap global demand for industrial metals. China has been rolling out modest stimulus measures, but economic growth is lacklustre and investors are concerned about the country's debt-laden property sector. Fears that China's economy had yet to bottom were stoked by data showing the slump in its property sector worsened in August, with deepening falls in new home prices, property investment and sales. U.S. business optimism about China has slid to a record low. So sell on rise should be best strategy. Copper may trade in the range of 705-730 levels. The global refined copper market showed a 19,000 metric tons deficit in July, compared with a 72,000 metric tons deficit in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 7 months of the year, the market was in a 215,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 254,000 metric tonnes deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses are at their highest since May 2022 at 155,700 tonnes, after a sharp growth over July-September, LME daily data showed. Zinc can trade in range of 215-235 levels. Lead can move in the range of 183-190. Aluminium can trade in the range of 197-210 levels. Global primary aluminium output rose 1.6% years on year to 6.0 million tons in August, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed. Steel long (Oct) is likely to trade in the range of 45000-47500 levels and buy on dip should be strategy.
Cotton prices are likely to trade mixed to higher due to limited availability of quality crops in the market. Farmers are not releasing their stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. CCI is likely to start their procurement operation in Oct that prompting farmers to hold their produce in hope to get better price realization from Cotton Corporation of India. The Centre has fixed cotton MSP at Rs 6,620 per quintal for medium staple variety and Rs 7,020 per quintal for long staple variety. Apart from that reports of lower acreage under cotton will also support firmness in prices. India planted about 123.22 lakh Ha under cotton as on 15th Sep as compared to 127.29 lakh Ha of previous year. Cotton MCX Nov prices are likely to trade in range of 58200-63500 levels.
Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1540-1650 levels. Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Dec futures are likely to trade mixed to down on sluggish buying in domestic market. However, reports of fall in area under cotton will cap the losses. Price seasonality of cotton seed oil cake suggest prices fall in Sep. Cocud prices are likely to trade in range of 2440-2820 levels.
Guar seed Oct futures are expected trade on mixed note as prices may witness some recovery on concerns over lower yield in major producing states. Below normal rainfall in western Rajasthan has sparked the worries over crop progress. Area under guar already down by 10%-12% in year 2023 and now bleak yield prospects is likely to keep production down. Demand for guar derivative products has increased that will support guar prices. However, gains are likely to be limited as fresh arrivals are expected to improve in Oct that will weigh on the market sentiments. Stockists are also expected to offload their stocks before commencement of new crop that will keep supplies adequate. Guar seed prices are likely to face resistance near 6300 whereas support is likely to be seen at 5650. Gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11400-13500 levels.
Mentha oil Oct contract is expected to higher on active demand in physical market. Anticipated robust winter demand from FMCG industries and consistent export inquiries will further bolster its prices. Moreover, the export market could benefit from rupee depreciation. Stockists are showing buying interest with emerging fresh export enquires for menthol. Overall production of mentha oil is likely to be down on yearly basis due to lower acreages that will cap the downfall in prices. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 915- 1010 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade mixed to down on reports of rise in area under castor in Gujarat. India planted about 9.47 lakh Ha under castor as on 15th Sep against the 9.23 lakh Ha of previous year. However, reports of rise in castor meal export will cap the loses. India exported about 30.3 thousand tonnes of castor meal in Aug’23 as compared to 23.7 thousand tonnes of previous year. Castor seed Oct prices are likely to trade in range of 5900-6600 levels.
It closed at Rs. 7483.00 on 21st Sep 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6812.44. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.580. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.7300 for a target of Rs. 7800 with the stop loss of 7050.
It closed at Rs. 59343.00 on 21st Sep 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 59586.96. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.378. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs. 58800 for a target of Rs. 60200 with the stop loss of 58100.
It closed at Rs. 6126.00 on 21st Sep 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6334.18 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.955. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs. 6100 for a target of Rs. 6300 with the stop loss of 5990.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The CRB index experienced a temporary halt at 325 during a critical moment, which was the Federal Interest Rate Decision. The Dollar index and US Treasury yields saw notable increases, signaling expectations of a higher interest rate environment in the long term and the anticipation of another rate hike in 2023. Gold and silver initially saw gains but later leveled off and closed in a sideways trading range. In the energy sector, crude oil prices retreated from their peak, while natural gas futures closed with a slight uptick. Energy markets had little reaction to U.S. energy data on Wednesday showing crude inventories fell in line with expectations last week. That crude stock draw was driven by strong oil exports, while gasoline and diesel inventories drew down as refiners began annual autumn maintenance, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a weekly report. Base metal prices declined due to concerns that an extended period of higher interest rates in the US could heighten the risk of an impending recession. Base metal prices lowered on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and bond yields powered higher after the Federal Reserve signaled another rate hike this year. China has been rolling out modest stimulus measures, but economic growth is lackluster and investors are concerned about the country's debt laden property sector. U.S. business optimism about China has slid to a record low. Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which have been rising since mid-July, are at the highest since May 2022 at 155,700 tons after deliveries of 6,100 tons, mainly to New Orleans, LME daily data showed. Global primary aluminium output rose 1.6% year on year to 6.0 million tons in August, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed.
In the agricultural sector, castor seed prices experienced a momentary pause in their downward trend and closed near the 6200 mark. Cotton oil seeds cake futures recorded a significant decline due to increased availability of fresh supply, with a similar situation observed in the kapas market. Within the guar market, guar gum ended the week in negative territory for the fourth consecutive week, while Guarseed closed in the positive zone. Turmeric prices slashed on weaker note following improved crop condition in Maharashtra and Telangana. Fresh buying in futures returned in jeera amid fair domestic demand and drier inventories. Chinese buyers have increased their buying in recent months that lifted the overall dhaniya export numbers from India. India exported about 11.3 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in June’23 as compared to 2.4 thousand tonnes of previous year.
Copper is often viewed as a barometer of economic demand given its use in a broad number of industrial applications. Alongside the world’s growing commitment to efforts in sustainability and efficiencies in multiple industries, copper is leading the charge in finding new ways to do old things.
After touching the Rs 886 mark in the first quarter of 2022 on MCX, prices have been unable to return to that level, pressured by global economic uncertainty related to inflation and weak demand from China. But the long-term picture for copper, which has high electrical conductivity, is still bright—the green energy transition is expected to see demand for the base metal increase.
Many factors impacting the copper market:
Rising interest rates along with Inflation & slowing global growth Currently, inflation has affected the entire global economy with the Consumer Price Index in the United States at 3.7%, and in the Eurozone at 5.2%. As central banks across the world are simultaneously hiking interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be moving toward a global recession and creating a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that has been hitting the outlook for metals including copper.
China’s growth & demand of base metals
China’s stuttering economy is now the biggest threat to global commodities demand, as economic activity and credit flows in the world’s top buyer deteriorate sharply and put Beijing’s modest growth targets at risk. China’s property sector, which typically accounts for more than a quarter of the overall economy, has slowed markedly because of a two-year liquidity crisis. The People’s Bank of China is widely expected to keep its loan prime rates at record lows as it moves to shore up economic growth. But despite simulative measures, the outlook for China’s property market remains largely unresponsive.
The green energy transition
As the world moves away from fossil fuels, the use of copper to electrify the world will become essential. Most analysts agree that the base metal is bound to be a winner of the green energy transition. In fact, electric vehicles use three times more copper than internal combustion engine cars — add to that the use of copper in electric vehicle charging stations and energy storage systems, and the demand keeps on growing.
Copper Production & demand estimates
Preliminary data from ICSG indicates that world copper mine production increased by approximately 1.8% while world refined copper production increased by about 7% in the first seven months of 2023. The data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage grew by about 4% in the first seven months of 2023.
Lower demand in the EU, Japan and the United States negatively impacted World ex-China refined usage which is estimated to have declined by about 2.5%. In the first seven months of 2023, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a preliminary surplus of about 215,000 t.
Copper is essential to economic activity and the modern technological society. Additionally, infrastructure developments in major countries and the global trend towards cleaner energy and electric cars will continue to support copper demand in the longer term.
The US dollar has maintained its position above the 105 mark, even after the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. The Fed's projections, as revealed in the dot-plot, have indicated the possibility of one more interest rate increase within the remainder of this year, followed by just two rate cuts in 2024.The Japanese yen has weakened considerably, falling below 148 yen per US dollar. This decline brings it close to one-year lows, and it follows the decision by the Bank of Japan to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy. The central bank's objective is to achieve a sustainable 2% price stability target, coupled with wage increases. Conversely, the British pound has depreciated significantly, reaching its lowest level since March. This drop in value comes in response to the Bank of England's unexpected decision to keep interest rates unchanged, contrary to expectations of an impending rate hike. On a different note, the Indian rupee has managed to secure a weekly gain for the first time in the last four weeks. This positive trend follows India's inclusion in JPMorgan's highly regarded emerging market bond index, which is anticipated to result in substantial inflows of capital. According to JPMorgan, Indian government bonds will be incorporated into the Government Bond Index- Emerging Markets index and the associated index suite. This inclusion process is set to commence on June 28, 2024, with incremental increases of 1% in its index weighting over a 10-month period. JPMorgan predicts that India will ultimately attain the maximum weighting of 10%. The potential inflows resulting from this index inclusion are estimated to be approximately $24 billion, beginning from the start of the next year until May 2025.
USDINR (OCT)pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 82.99. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.56 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.4 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.4 levels.
One can buy near 82.7 for the target of 83.4 with the stop loss of 82.4
GBPINR (OCT)pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 103.7. However, the pair is in oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 23.57 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 101 levels, while resistance is expected near 103.7 levels.
One can buy near 101.3 for the target of 102.5 with the stop loss of 100.7
EURINR (SEPT) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 89.31. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 31.87 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 87.6 levels, while resistance is expected near 89.31 levels.
One can sell near 88.6 for the target of 87.6 with the stop loss of 89.1
JPYINR (SEPT) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 56.7. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 31.84 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 56.7 levels.
One can sell near 56.2 for the target of 55.2 with the stop loss of 56.7
(2/5)
|
|
The company intends to utilize the net proceeds from the
issue towards the funding of the following objects:
1. Prepayment or repayment, in full or part, of all or a portion of
certain outstanding borrowings through investment in the
wholly owned Subsidiaries, JSW Dharamtar Port Private
Limited and JSW Jaigarh Port Limited.
2. Financing capital expenditure requirements through
investment in the wholly owned subsidiary, JSW Jaigarh
Port Limited, for proposed expansion/upgradation works at
Jaigarh Port i.e., i) expansion of LPG terminal ("LPG
Terminal Project"); ii) setting up an electric sub-station; and
iii) purchase and installation of dredger.
3. Financing capital expenditure requirements through
investment in the wholly owned subsidiary, JSW Mangalore
Container Terminal Private Limited, for the proposed
expansion at Mangalore Container Terminal ("Mangalore
Container Project").
4. General corporate purposes.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the upper end of the price band of Rs.119, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 29.61x on FY23 EPS of Rs.4.02. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 33.34x on its EPS of Rs.3.57. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.119, pre issue, book value of Rs. 21.93 of P/Bvx 5.43x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 32.80 of P/Bvx 3.63x.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the lower end of the price band of Rs.113, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 28.11x on FY23 EPS of Rs.4.02. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 31.66x on its EPS of Rs.3.57. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.113, pre issue, book value of Rs. 21.93 of P/Bvx 5.15x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 32.80 of P/Bvx 3.44x.
Incorporated in 2006, JSW Infrastructure Limited provides maritime-related services including, cargo handling, storage solutions and logistics services. The company develops and operates ports and port terminals under Port Concessions. JSW Infrastructure Limited is a part of the JSW Group. JSW Infrastructure's international presence includes 2 terminals at Fujairah and Dibba in the UAE. JSW Infrastructure Limited operates nine Port Concessions in India with an installed cargo handling capacity of 158.43 MTPA as of June 30, 2023.
Fastest growing port-related infrastructure company: The company is the fastest growing portrelated infrastructure company in terms of growth in installed cargo handling capacity and cargo volumes handled from Fiscal 2021 to Fiscal 2023. Its installed cargo handling capacity in India grew at a CAGR of 15.27% between March 31, 2021 and March 31, 2023, and the volume of cargo handled in India also grew at a CAGR of 42.76% from Fiscal 2021 to Fiscal 2023. Further, its installed cargo handling capacity in India grew from 153.43 MTPA as of June 30, 2022 to 158.43 MTPA as of June 30, 2023, and the volume of cargo handled by it in India grew from 23.33 MMT for the three month period ended June 30, 2022 to 25.42 MMT for the three month period ended June 30, 2023. It operates nine Port Concessions in India with an installed cargo handling capacity of 158.43 MTPA as of June 30, 2023, and its position in the Indian maritime infrastructure industry enables it to leverage economies of scale in project development capabilities and resource optimization
Strategically located assets at close proximity to JSW Group Customers: Its Port Concessions are strategically located on the west and east coasts of India and are well connected to its customers including JSW Group Customers (Related Parties) located in the industrial hinterlands of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and mineral rich belts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. These states manage large volumes of cargo from coastal areas and the broader hinterland.
Demonstrated project development, execution and operational capabilities: JSW Infra has a demonstrated track record of developing, acquiring and operating nine Port Concessions, as of June 30, 2023. Its installed cargo handling capacity in India has grown at a CAGR of 15.27% from March 31, 2021 to March 31, 2023, and the volume of cargo handled by it in India has grown at a CAGR of 42.76% between Fiscal 2021 and Fiscal 2023. Further, its installed cargo handling capacity in India grew from 153.43 MTPA as of June 30, 2022 to 158.43 MTPA as of June 30, 2023, and the volume of cargo handled by it in India grew from 23.33 MMT for the three month period ended June 30, 2022 to 25.42 MMT for the three month period ended June 30, 2023. The application of its operational expertise in running large ports and port terminals has contributed significantly towards this growth.
Strong financial metrics: JSW Infra has shown consistent financial growth in recent years, with its revenue from operations, EBITDA and profit after tax having grown at a CAGR of 41.15%, 42.06% and 62.28%, respectively, from Fiscal 2021 to Fiscal 2023. Its strong financial profile enables it to raise capital at competitive rates. For instance, in January 2022, it issued USD 40 crore 4.95% sustainabilitylinked senior secured notes due in 2029 which was assigned a Ba2 Corporate Family Rating and “BB+/ Stable” rating by Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, respectively. Moody’s updated the rating of the bond to “Ba2/ Positive” in February 2023.
Continue to pursue Greenfield and brownfield expansions: JSW Infra intends to focus on expansion in Non-Major Ports where it can broaden its operations to provide fully integrated logistics solutions with an optimum cargo mix of bulk, container, liquid and gases while continuing to expand its presence across Major Ports. It intends to increase capacity at the Jaigarh Port by developing a terminal with a proposed capacity of up to 2 MTPA for handling LPG, propane, butane and similar products.
Pursue acquisition opportunities in similar businesses: JSW Infra has in the past acquired Port Concessions in the states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka as part of its efforts to increase its capacity, expand its footprint across geographies and products and to cater to growing cargo Volumes. JSW Infra plans to further expand its asset portfolio and grow its operations by evaluating acquisition opportunities to strengthen its presence in handling container and liquid cargo, with a focus on increasing its third-party customer base.
Increasing third-party customer base: JSW Infra aims to widen its mix of its customers to achieve a balanced customer base and have been focusing on strengthening its relationships with third-party customers. It seeks to derive diversification benefits by expanding its base of third-party customers while also maintaining its JSW Group Customers (Related Parties) relationships that lend greater stability and predictability to its operations.
JSW infrastructure is India’s second largest port operator in terms of cargo handling capacity as of FY23. The installed cargo handling capacity of the company stood at 15.84 Crore tonnes per annum for multicommodity cargo, including dry bulk, break bulk, liquid bulk, gases, and containers. It has had a 40% growth in cargo volumes since FY20 with a cargo volume of 93 million tonnes as of 31 March 2023. However, a substantial portion of the volume of cargo handled by it is dependent on a few types of cargo and a significant reduction in, or the elimination of such cargo could adversely affect its profitability.
|
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted Rs 1,028 crore in August, making it the highest inflow in 16 months, amid continued hikes in interest rates in the US, which led to a slowing down in growth rate there. With this, the year-to-date inflow in the category has reached more than Rs 1,400 crore, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Apart from inflow, the asset base of Gold ETFs and investors' account or folio numbers increased in the period under review. According to data, gold-linked ETFs have seen an inflow of Rs 1,028 crore in August. This came following an inflow of Rs 456 crore in the segment in July. Before that, Gold ETF saw inflow to the tune of Rs 298 crore during the April-June period after three quarters of consecutive outflow. The category saw a withdrawal of Rs 1,243 crore in the March quarter, Rs 320 crore in the December quarter, and Rs 165 crore in the September quarter. The month of August witnessed the highest monthly inflow into Gold ETFs since April 2022 when the category attracted Rs 1,100 crore on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced change in fund managers for its three equity schemes through a notice cum addendum. The fund house informed the investors that the fund managers for ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund, ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving), and ICICI Prudential Transportation and Logistics Fund (the schemes) have been changed. The changes will be effective from September 18.
|
UTI Asset Management Company (UTI AMC) has announced the elevation of Anurag Mittal as head of fixed income with effect from October 1. Mittal joined UTI AMC in 2021 as deputy head of fixed income and has been managing key flagship funds for the company. “We are pleased to announce Anurag’s elevation as Head of Fixed Income at UTI AMC. The leadership of Anurag and his proven expertise in research and Fixed Income fund management will strengthen the Fixed Income team of UTI AMC further, as we remain committed to helping investors achieve their financial goals,” said Imtaiyazur Rahman, Managing Director & CEO, UTI AMC. Mittal has an experience of close to two decades in fund management, dealing and research. Prior to joining UTI AMC, he was senior fund manager at IDFC Asset Management Company and managed key IDFC debt mutual fund schemes. He was also associated with HDFC Mutual Fund as senior manager – Investments and Axis Mutual Fund as fund manager – investments, responsible for fund management, dealing and research.
Bandhan Mutual Fund has filed a draft for a micro cap fund. Bandhan Microcap Fund will be an open-ended scheme investing in micro cap companies. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty Microcap 250 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Sumit Agrawal and Kirthi Jain (equity investments), Brijesh Shah (debt investments), and Nishita Shah (overseas investments). According to the scheme information document, the investment objective of the scheme is to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity-related instruments of microcap companies. The scheme will have a regular and direct plan with both growth and IDCW options. The scheme will allocate 80-100% in equity and equity-related instruments of microcap companies, 0-20% in equities and equity related securities other than microcap companies and overseas securities, 0-20% in very high debt securities and money market instruments (including government securities and securities debt), and 0-10% in units issued by REITs & InvITs. The minimum application amount will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter.
Bandhan Mutual Fund has filed a draft for a multi asset allocation fund. Bandhan Multi Asset Allocation Fund will be an open-ended scheme investing in equity and equity-related instruments, debt and money market securities, and gold/silver index/ETFs. The scheme will be benchmarked against 35% S&P BSE 500 TRI + 55% NIFTY Short Duration Debt Index + 10% Domestic prices of gold. The scheme will be managed by Vijay Kulkarni (equity investments), Nemish Sheth (equity investments), Gautam Kaul (debt investments), and Nishita Shah (overseas investments). According to the scheme information document, the investment objective of the scheme is to generate income and provide long-term capital appreciation by investing in instruments across multiple asset classes namely equity and equity related instruments, debt and money market securities, and gold/silver index/ETFs. The scheme will have regular and direct plans with growth and IDCW options. The minimum application amount will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum application amount for SIP will be Rs 100 and in multiple of Re 1 thereafter with six instalments. The scheme will offer SIP facility with weekly, monthly, and quarterly frequencies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
