Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21-22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets remained in edge due to a succession of I weak data releases in Europe and the United States. The fall in US consumer spending is suggesting that economy is on somewhat weaker footing than previously thought amid rapid inflation and Federal Reserve hikes. The market mood is dominated by the possibility of recessions in the US and Europe. Actually, the central bankers are doubling down on hawkish rhetoric. Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual conference, Christine Lagarde, its president, Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, and Andrew Bailey, Bank of England governor, called for rapid action to curb inflation. Investors expect another 75-basis-point Fed rate increase in July by U.S. Federal Reserve. Whereas, the Bank of Japan is the only central bank with a loose monetary policy. However, the silver lining is that China has suddenly become a bright spot. The Chinese stock markets rose in the last quarter and have bounced about 20% from April lows. After a rough first half of the year, July will be critical for the future direction of markets amid corporate earnings, key inflation data and the Fed meeting. It is expected that volatility will remain elevated until there’s evidence that inflation is moderating, recession risks are ebbing and geopolitical threats are weakening.

Domestic markets continued to witness volatile trade tracking weak global trends as inflation and recession fears kept investors on the edge. Consumer confidence is declining rapidly due to the uncontrolled & constant rise in inflation. FIIs have been net seller in the domestic market as soaring inflation; Fed rate hikes, war in Ukraine, and the lingering effects of the global pandemic have all put pressure on markets. In another development, Government introduced export duty on petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to help maintain domestic supplies, along with windfall tax of Rs 23,250 per tonne on oil producers who have benefited from higher global crude oil prices. Windfall tax will dent earnings of companies like Reliance, ONGC, Vedanta, etc. Domestic macros largely seem good with projected GDP growth at 7.5 per cent in FY23, strong GST and direct tax collection and inflation at 7 per cent currently. The second half of the calendar year will depend on how the inflation in India and US will move and what will be the FIIs mood. With rate hikes and quantitative tightening the inflation is projected to come down in the second half of this year, it is expected that market will recover some lost ground. At this juncture, investors are advised to stay invested in selective large cap companies having strong fundamentals, good business moat and strong industry tailwind.

On the commodity market, CRB slipped from the multiyear high for the fourth continuous week on upside in dollar index and talk of recession. Fed hawkish comments to keep increasing the interest rate also weighed on the commodity. It was the first and biggest monthly drop since November’s loss of 16% for Brent and 20% for WTI. Slowing economies could dent energy demand as central banks hike interest rates to battle inflation. Uncertainty in global oil and gas markets could stay for some time. Hike in import duty on gold will add premium on Indian gold now. India has raised its basic import duty on gold to 12.5% from 7.5%. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 49000-53000 and 57000-62000 respectively. Energy counter may trade in pressure. Crude can move in a wide range of 8200-9000 levels. Base metals will remain on weaker side. RBA Interest Rate Decision, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and FOMC Minutes of US, Inflation Rate of Mexico, Balance of Trade, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Canada, etc are important triggers for commodities this week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. SMC is also a "AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor".

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • Growth in the output of eight core infrastructure sectors scaled a 13-month peak of 18.1% in May from a year earlier, compared with 9.3% in the previous month, partly aided by a favourable base due to the second Covid wave in this month last year.
  • According to RBI data, Credit growth to industry accelerated to 8.7 per cent in May 2022, while for agriculture and allied activities, the off-take increased by 11.8 per cent.
  • The union government imposed a windfall tax on crude oil produced locally and also levied additional excise duty on exports of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to temper domestic fuel retail prices and ensure availability. While a cess of Rs.23,250 per tonne has been imposed on crude oil, a special excise duty of Rs.6, Rs.13, and Rs.6 per litre has been imposed on the export of petrol, diesel, and ATF respectively.
Telecom
  • In a move that signals the succession of the third generation of the Ambani family, Mukesh Ambani has stepped down as the director of Reliance Jio Infocomm (RJIL), handing over the reins to son Akash, who will take over as the chairman of the firm.
  • Reliance Industries' digital services arm Jio Platforms will be collaborating with file sharing platform DigiBoxx to develop storage solutions and meet the cloud consolidation needs of former’s existing and future consumer base.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd has acquired the approved generic versions of certain over-the-counter drugs from Wockhardt Ltd in the US. The acquisition by the company's fully-owned subsidiary Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Inc, USA includes the approved abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) for famotidine tablets, 10 mg and 20 mg used to treat and prevent ulcers in the stomach and intestine.
  • Biocon has entered into an agreement for the purpose of acquisition of solar power by acquiring equity stake up to 26% in AMPYR Renewable Energy Resources Eleven (AREREPL), a Special Purpose Vehicle formed for generation and supply of solar power.
  • Lupin has received approval from the US health regulator to market Paliperidone extended-release tablets, used to treat Schizophrenia, in the American market.
Agro Chemicals
  • UPL and Bunge, a global leader in agribusiness, food, and ingredients, have announced a new partnership to increase productivity, profitability and sustainability for farmers in Brazil.
Construction
  • ITD Cementation India has received Letter of Acceptance for construction of Wharf and Approach Trestle Works from Bharat Mumbai Container Terminals (BMCT) at Jawaharlal Nehru Port worth over Rs 700 crore plus applicable taxes.
  • Ahluwalia Contracts (India) has bagged a contract worth Rs 209 crore from D C Development Noida Ltd for construction of Adani Connex Data Centres in Uttar Pradesh.
Oil & Gas
  • Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) will invest over Rs 740 crore to raise the capacity of the nation's oldest oil refinery at Digboi in Assam. The project is expected to be commissioned by October 2025.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • The US economy shrank at a slightly faster rate than previously estimated during the first quarter. With one quarter of negative economic growth in the books, the data adds to fears that a recession may be looming. Real gross domestic product declined at an annualized rate of 1.6% from January to March, according to the BEA's third and final revisions for the quarter.
  • US initial jobless claims slipped to 231,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 233,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 228,000 from the 229,000 originally reported for the previous month.
  • US personal spending rose by 0.5 percent in May, matching the revised increase seen in April as well as expectations. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, also advanced by 0.5 percent for the second straight month.
  • The manufacturing sector in China moved into expansion territory in June, the latest survey from Caixin revealed with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.7. That's up from 48.1 and it moves above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

DLF LIMITED
CMP: 323.30
Target Price: 392
Upside: 21%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 449.80/279.45
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 80,026.83
  • EPS (Rs.) 6.06
  • P/E Ratio (times) 53.35
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.20
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.62
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • DLF is India's leading real estate developer and has more than seven decades of track record of sustained growth, customer satisfaction, and innovation. DLF has developed more than 153 real estate projects and developed an area in excess of 330 million square feet. DLF Group has 215 msf (approx.) of development potential across residential and commercial segment.
  • In FY2022, the company reported 136% YoY growth in New Sales bookings in its residential business, as housing demand continues to exhibit a structural upswing across segments and geographies. The luxury segments of the company lead this trend. The Super Luxury offering, the Camellias, continues to display strong customer interest and delivered healthy sales bookings of Rs 2,550 crore during the fiscal.
  • New product launches across New Delhi, Gurugram and Chennai continue to receive encouraging response from the market vindicating demand for quality products in established locations. The new products sales bookings stood at approx. Rs 4,683 crore during the last fiscal year.
  • The Company continues to focus on deleveraging its balance sheet and surplus cash generation. In FY-2022, strong collections along with sales ramp-up led to one of the highest levels of surplus cash generation of Rs 2,205 crore. During the year the net debt of the company was reduced by 46% to Rs. 2680 crore.
  • It plans to launch 35 msf with sales potential of Rs. 47000 crore across segments and geographies. In FY2022, it has already launched 7.5 msf and 7.6 msf is expected in FY-2023.

The rental business of the company continues its steady path to recovery. Office occupancy is gradually recovering and stood at 88% at the fiscal end. The office business delivered strong collections at 100%. The company continues to witness a gradual ramp up in return of occupiers to their workplaces and expect these trends to further improve in the next few months. Retail business continued a strong rebound during the fiscal. The company has therefore initiated development plans to build out new retail destinations across certain geographies.

Risk

  • Higher Interest rate
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

Sustained momentum and strong tailwinds are expected to support the structural upswing in housing demand over the medium term, this is expected to benefit the company having strong pipeline of new products offering. The company is comfortably poised to deliver consistent and profitable growth backed by strong brand equity, robust operating model and healthy cash flows. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.392 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BVx of 2.5x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.156.97.

P/B Chart

HAVELLS INDIA LIMITED
CMP: 1112.90
Target Price: 1348
Upside: 21%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1503.70/978.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 69724.08
  • EPS (Rs.) 19.10
  • P/E Ratio (times) 58.27
  • P/B Ratio (times) 11.61
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.69
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Havells India is a leading fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) company and a major power distribution equipment manufacturer with a strong global presence. Its product range covers the entire gamut of household, commercial and industrial electrical products.
  • It has achieved rapid success in the past few years. Its 13state-of-the-art manufacturing units in India located at Haridwar, Baddi, Sahibabad, Faridabad, Alwar, Ghiloth, and Neemrana are manufacturing globally acclaimed products, synonymous with excellence and precision in the electrical industry.
  • It owns some of the most prestigious brands like Havells, Lloyd, Crabtree and Standard. Its network constitutes of 4000 professionals, over 14000 plus dealers and 35 branches in the country. Its products are available in 60 plus countries
  • During Q4FY22, on the segmental revenue front, Income from the switchgears segment came at Rs 474 crore, up 2% year on year. Switchgear growth for the quarter was impacted by COVID-19 disrupting the housing construction in January & February.
  • Revenue from cables segment stood at Rs 1,488 crore in Q4 FY22, rising 45% compared to Rs 1,029 crore posted in the year ago period. Havells said cable growth across B2B and B2C saw a healthy mix of value and volume.
  • Havells' revenue from lighting and fixtures in Q4 FY22 was up 22% to Rs 399 crore, as against Rs 329 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Electrical consumer durables revenue (ECD) was up 22% to Rs 870 crore in Q4 FY22 as against Rs 712 crore in the year-ago period. Lighting continues to grow across consumer and professional business with impressive growth in B2B segment. The management is confident that the growth for this segment will continue in coming years.
  • Meanwhile, revenue from Lloyd surged 62% year on year to Rs 959 crore in Q4 FY22 and according to the management of the company, Lloyd benefitted from timely onset of summer and pent up demand but on the other hand it was impacted by sustained competitive intensity and inadequate price increases.

Risk

  • Economic slowdown
  • Commodity inflation

Valuation

The company has consistent growth in each business parameter with healthy value and volume growth across the segment. Timely onset of summer and pent-up demand helped Lloyd register high revenue growth. Contribution margins continued to be impacted due to higher material inflation and time lag in passing on increased costs. The management of the company expects gradual recovery and remains confident on sustaining the same. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1348 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/E of 58.27x and FY23 EPS of Rs.23.13.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

AXIS BANK LIMITED (AXISBANK)

The stock closed at Rs 643.95 on 01st July, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 618.25 on 23rd June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 866.90 on 25th October, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 709.90

Axis bank has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern on hourly chart which is a bullish pattern where the head is formed near 620 levels while on weekly charts prices have closed near previous week high, also prices have retraced 38.2% of the entire rally from 280.36-866.90 levels. RSI has also started taking support near 40 levels on weekly charts. A break above 650 prices can rally near 700-750 levels in near term, while support would be seen near the head of the head & shoulder pattern at 618.25 levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 640-645 levels for the upside target of 710- 730 levels with SL below 610 levels.

ITC LIMITED (ITC)

The stock closed at Rs 284.75 on 1ST July, 2022. It made a 52- week low of Rs 200.90 on 9th July 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs 285 on 1st July 2022 . The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 178.25.

ITC ltd has been trading in higher top higher bottom formation as per Dow theory while on 1st July 2022 prices have given a break above 52 week high and closed at high point of the day with increase in volume .On weekly charts prices have also given a break above bullish flag pattern. As per the pattern the expected move can be seen near 320-340 levels in near term while weekly RSI is also breaking 70 levels. Immediate support lies near 260 levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 275-278 levels for the upside target of 320-335 levels with SL below 245 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

In the week gone by, nifty and Bank Nifty closed flat. However, on Friday, Banknifty outperformed Nifty as a sharp correction was witnessed in Reliance after government hiked export tax on petrol, diesel and ATF. From the derivative front, the highest call open interest concentration is at 16000 strike whereas on put side, the highest open interest concentration is at 15500 strike, which acted as support on Friday’s session. Banknifty highest call open interest concentration is at 34000 strike whereas on put side, it is at 33000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 21.37% while that for put options, it closed at 22.59. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 21.84%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.28 higher than the previous week. On the technical chart, the oscillators such as RSI and stochastic, have sufficient room for upside movement. We expect Nifty to inch towards 16000 levels while 16200-15500 would act as a trading zone for the index.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 30th June, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Last week we have witnessed some positive trend in the spices counter but it did not able to sustain above the previous week high levels as they are facing resistance at higher level. Turmeric (Jul) witnessed some volatile trade during last week but did not sustain at higher levels due to selling pressure. The prices have corrected after it reached 2-week high levels. Now the resistance is 7950 while support at 7600 levels. We expect it to trade lower towards 7400 levels. Currently, reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress are pressurizing the prices. The prices have corrected more than 24% from highs of 2022 due to lower exports demand and new season arrivals. As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Apr 2022 is higher 3.61% y/y while for the period of Jan-Apr 2022, exports are 50,500 tn same as last year.

Jeera (Jul) continued its recovery this week after it slipped to 8-week low levels in the previous week. It got good support from the lower level buying by the market participants on expectation of improving domestic and exports demand. The support is seen at 20900 levels while resistance is at 21500 levels. We expect the prices to trade sideways to higher towards 21700 if it sustains above 21400. The arrivals have improved in the physical market due to improving prices. Currently, prices are higher by 59% y/y on lower crop estimates and lower stocks with the traders. Prices have corrected about 9% from higher levels of 2022 due to lower export demand. As per govt data, jeera exports in Apr 2022 down by 66% Y/Y at 10,700 tonnes, the lowest April month export volume in last 6 years while exports in first 4-months of 2022 down by 46% Y/Y to 54000 compared to 1 lakh tonnes last year.

Dhaniya (Jul) traded positive last week but in a very narrow range taking support near 11100 while the resistance is 11500 levels. We expect prices to trade sideways to manner till it breaks either the support or resistance. It has corrected about 18-19% from the 2022 highs due to lower exports but now increased about 5% in last one week due to improving local demand. As per govt data, coriander exports in Apr 2022 down 27.1% y/y at 4020 tn compared to 5500 tn last year while for first 4 months of 2022, the export volumes are down by 23.5% at 15,100 tn Vs 19,770 tn last year but 12% higher compared to 5-year average for same period.

BULLIONS

Gold prices faces its worst quarter since early 2021, as the dollar cemented its place as the safe-haven asset of choice, amid top central banks adopting aggressive tactics against runaway inflation. Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields inched down, increasing the appeal of non-yielding gold. The dollar ticked up towards recent 2-decade peaks, and could record its best quarter in over 5 years, making gold less attractive for buyers holding other currencies. New US data for May showed little immediate relief from the record pace of inflation pushing the Federal Reserve toward another oversized interest rate increase next month, but it did add to a developing sense that the worst may be over. Gold prices, set to drop for a third straight month, have fallen about 6% this quarter, their worst since the first quarter of 2021. Bringing down high inflation around the world will be painful and could even crash growth but must be done quickly to prevent rapid price growth from becoming entrenched, the world's top central bank chiefs said. Rate hikes by central banks to fight inflation raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields no interest. World Bank's chief economist Carmen Reinhart said she is sceptical that the US and global economies can dodge a recession, given red-hot inflation, sharp rate hikes and slowing growth in China. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness huge volatility where both side movements may be witnessed and the trading range for gold would be 49000-52000 levels. Silver may also witness huge volatility and trade in the range of 56000-61500 levels.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton (Jul) continued its corrections and slipped about 6% last week due to lower demand and expectation of improving cotton area in coming weeks. Now we see support at 39820 and resistance near 44090 levels. We expect it to trade sideways to lower towards 40000 levels. Prices have slipped about 15% in last one month as demand for cotton is limited from textile sector. Cotton area is lower by 14.7% Y/Y at 31.83 lakh ha Vs 37.34 as on 26th Jun but expected to increase as the monsoon progress in the month of July. In Gujarat area is higher by 67% y/y at 5.90 lakh ha but in Maharashtra area is lower by 47.7% at 4.53 lakh ha. While in Madhya Pradesh cotton sowing is down 43.3% y/y at 165,000 ha. Cotton exports from country have fallen due to higher prices which make it economically unviable this season to 38 lakh bales till May end compared to 58 lakh bales in last year

Guar seed (Jul) continued to make lower levels in 2022 as it slipped more than 5% last week; mainly of good sowing reports in Rajasthan. Prices have already tank about 13-15% since reports of normal monsoon by the weather department. We expect it to trade lower towards support while resistance is at 5400 levels. Currently, prices are higher by about 20% y/y due to lower production, multi-year lower stocks and good export demand. Currently, there is normal demand and expectation of higher sowing in coming season. Food exports numbers are also not able to support prices of guar seed. Guar gum exports in Apr 2022 higher by 7% y/y at 29,132 tonnes while exports during Jan-Apr 2022 is up by 22% y/y at 79,650 tonnes compared 65275 tonnes last FY. Guargum exports were down about 20% in last FY compared to previous fiveyear average of 4 lt exports.

Castor seed (Jul) recovered last week 3-4% due to lower level buying. Prices have increased to 3-week higher levels and expected to be positive in coming week on persistent export demand. We expect it to trade higher towards 7700 if it sustains above 7350 levels. Currently, prices are about 44% higher y/y due to good export demand and lower carry-over stocks. We witnessed slow start to castor seed as Gujarat kharif area as on 27-Jun under castor is 41 ha Vs 545 ha last year as per data released by the state agriculture dept. Despite higher export prices exports of Castor oil and meal is higher in the first 5 months of 2022 by about 18% and 3% respectively. Mentha oil (Jul) slipped to 5-month low but recover due to lower level buying. We see support at 1010 levels while the resistance is 1060 levels. Going forward, the prices are expected to trade in the range with some positive bias.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude Oil shed its gains after bullish rally, amid an unseasonal slowdown in gasoline demand. A government report showed that US crude stocks fell as fuel makers increased runs amid historically high refining margins. Meanwhile, gasoline demand on a four-week rolling average fell to the lowest seasonal level since 2014, with the exception of 2020. The slowdown in gasoline demand growth could be a sign that prices are starting to impact consumers. However, the outlook for oil is still strong, demand is currently below seasonal averages but the key thing for crude is that it is still growing. The continued slump by the price of crude oil reflected lingering concerns about the outlook for demand amid the possibility of a recession. Oil prices also fell sharply due to uncertainty about future output from the OPEC+. After a two-day meeting, OPEC+ agreed to stick with its previously announced plans to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August but did not comment on its plans for September onwards. A report from the Commerce Department provided further evidence of an economic slowdown, showing personal spending increased by less than expected in the month of May. Looking ahead in week, Crude oil prices may trade within the range of 7950- 8500 where buying near support and sell near resistance would be strategy. U.S. natural gas futures plunged below $6 per million British thermal units, after an inventory report showed a larger-than-expected storage build, sparking fears of an oversupplied market. However, Natural gas continues to trade with sideways to bearish trend where resistance is seen near 500 and support is seen near 390. Higher volatility is expected in Natural gas.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in range with negative bias as aggressive rate hikes by major central banks to combat soaring inflation has raised worries of a global recession, which would dent demand for metals. Asia's manufacturing activity stalled in June as many companies were hit by supply disruptions caused by China's strict COVID-19 lockdowns, while sharp economic slowdown risks in Europe and the United States reinforced fears of a global recession. U.S. consumer spending rose less than expected in May as motor vehicles remained scarce, while higher prices forced cutbacks on purchases of other goods. However short covering may provide some breather to bulls as base metals registered the worst quarterly slump since the 2008 global financial crisis as China’s economy recovered only gradually and fears of a world recession intensified. Copper may trade in the range 665-700 levels. Copper output in Chile , the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 2.7% year-on-year to 480,275 tonnes in May. Copper’s supply chain remains challenged, albeit in better condition than last year when LME stocks fell to near zero. Aluminum may trade in the range of 195-215 levels. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay a premium of $148 a tonne over the benchmark price for July-September shipments, down 14% from the current quarter, sources said. Zinc can trade in the range of 275-295 levels. Lead can move in the range of 168-178 levels. Nickel may trade in the range of 2000-2120 levels. Global primary nickel production could increase 19% in 2022 to 3.21 million mt, and the nickel deficit of 2021 should turn into a mild surplus of around 40,000 mt in 2022, according to Russia's Nornickel.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CRUDE OIL MCX (JUL) contract closed at Rs. 8387.00 on 30th Jun 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 9440.00 on 14th Jun’2022 and a low of Rs. 7528.00 on 10th May’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 8624.09. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.931.

One can sell near Rs. 8400 for a target of Rs. 8200 with the stop loss of 8500.

COPPER MCX (JUL) contract was closed at Rs. 694.15 on 30th Jun’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 813.90 on 03rd Jun’2022 and a low of Rs. 686.00 on 01st Jul’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 726.60. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 23.352.

One can sell near Rs. 695 for a target of Rs. 675 with the stop loss of Rs 705.

CASTOR SEED NCDEX (JUL) contract closed at Rs. 7480.00 on 30th Jun’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 7798.00 on 23rd May’2022 and a low of Rs. 7040.00 on 20th Jun’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 7392.35. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.965.

One can buy near Rs. 7400 for a target of Rs. 7750 with the stop loss of Rs. 7225.

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • Indian government has decided to raise import duty on gold to keep a check on imports. The base duty has been changed from 7.5% to 12.5%. Social welfare surcharge has been exempted.
  • As per IMD, rain deficit in India as a whole for June at 8% while Central India still has 30% deficient.
  • Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 2.7% year-on-year to 480,275 tonnes in May.
  • Chinese imports of copper concentrate hit a record high of 2.19 million in May, up 6.1% to 10.42 million during the first five months of the year
  • As per NASS, all cotton planted area for 2022 in US is estimated at 12.5 million acres, up 11 percent from last year. Upland cotton planted is estimated at 12.3 million acres, up 11% from 2021 while American Pima planted area up 23% from 2021.
  • Malaysian Palm clocks 22% monthly plunge, worst in nearly 14 years pressured by weak exports and expectations of higher production in coming months.
  • As per government official, Indonesia is considering expanding a mandatory palm oil mix in its biodiesel to 35% from 30%.
  • According to the estimate by Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), sowing of soybean has been done on 26% of the total area that was planted under soybean in the previous year as on last week of Jun.
  • Data from Brazil’s industry leader Unica showed 55.6% of cane crushing was used for ethanol in June, up from 53.7% a year ago.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB slipped from the multi-year high for the fourth continuous week on upside in dollar index and talk of recession. Fed hawkish comments to keep increasing the interest rate also weighed on the commodity. It was the first and biggest monthly drop since November’s loss of 16% for Brent and 20% for WTI. Thursday’s drop alone of nearly 4% weighed heavily on the two crude benchmarks as producer cartel OPEC+ and its allies confirmed a previously-agreed production of nearly 650,000 barrels per day for July and August — up more than 50% from June. Rise in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories and worries about slower economic growth around the world offset ongoing concerns about tight crude supplies. On MCX, crude breached 8400 levels. U.S. natural gas futures plunged below $6 per million British thermal units on Thursday, after an inventory report showed a larger-than-expected storage build, sparking fears of an oversupplied market. Henry Hub futures declined 16.53% to settle at $5.42 per million British thermal units. The contract ended June 33% lower, which was the worst month since December 2018. On MCX, it made a multi months low of 443. Gold breached the consolidation in international market. MCX gold was trading in line with US gold but sudden hike in import duty. India has raised its basic import duty on gold to 12.5% from 7.5%, the government said in a notification on Friday, as the world's second biggest consumer of the precious metal tries to dampen its demand. The dollar hovered near recent two-decade peaks. The strengthening dollar has dented non-yielding bullion’s demand. Base metals ignored the positive PMI of China and slipped further on recession fear. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in June from 49.6 in May, the first expansion since February, indicating that the country’s factory activity is expanding. Industrial metals have tumbled alongside stock markets as central bankers stepped up talk of action to contain decades-high inflation. Weak economic data in Europe and the United States has not prevented central bankers from doubling down on hawkish rhetoric. Worries about low zinc stocks in LME-registered warehouses have eased. This can be seen in the narrowing premium for the cash over the three-month zinc contract last at $66 a tonne compared with more than $200 a tonne last week.

Guar witnessed correction of almost 22% from the 2022 peak despite good exports numbers. Progress in monsoon amid decline in crude prices weighed the sentiments. Castor rebounded sharply from the low. Currently, prices are about 45.5% higher y/y due to slow start to sowing season and lower carry-over stocks. SEA estimates, India's castor seed crop in 2021-22 at 16.94 lakh tonnes — lower by 62,000 tonnes from last year's estimated output of 17.56 lakh tonnes (lt). On the export front, castor meal exports in May 2022 up by 49.5% y/y to 31,150 tonnes. Spices saw marginal upside.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

RED CARPET FOR FPIs IN INDIAN COMMODITY DERIVATIVES

To boost liquidity, efficient price discovery and efficiency at domestic commodity bourses, the markets regulator SEBI has allowed foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to play in commodity derivatives markets. Foreign investors, who freely deal in stocks, bonds, gilts and foreign currency in Indian financial markets, were restricted from taking positions in exchange-traded commodity futures and options. 'Foreign eligible entities' are permitted to buy or sell derivatives for only 'hedging' their exposure to physical markets after submitting the underlying export or import documents. However, they are barred from trading in commodity derivatives. The decision comes a year after China decided to open its commodity derivatives market to international traders and comes at a time when commodity exchanges are suffering from a fall in trading volumes and FPIs are pulling out from the stock markets.

What will be route for FPIs to invest in Indian commodity derivatives markets?

  • The FPIs will be allowed to participate in Indian ETCDs, subject to certain risk management measures.
  • The existing Eligible Foreign Entity (EFE) route, which required actual exposure to Indian physical commodities, has been discontinued.
  • Any foreign investor desirous of participating in Indian ETCDs with or without actual exposure to Indian physical commodities can do so through the FPI route.
  • The FPIs will be allowed to trade in all non-agricultural commodity derivatives and select non-agricultural benchmark indices. To begin with, the FPIs will be allowed only in cash-settled contracts.
  • FPIs belonging to categories such as individuals, family offices and corporate will be allowed a position limit of 20 per cent of the client-level position limit in a particular commodity derivatives contract, similar to the position limits prescribed for currency derivatives.
  • A Working Group comprising of representatives from the SEBI and market participants has also been constituted to review/examine whether any additional risk management measures, are required to be prescribed for FPIs.

Impact on the market after approval of FPIs in commodity derivatives

  • It is very important step to integrate Indian market with global market. It will allow free flow of capital in Indian market, however, it is allowed only in non agri cash settled products so volume will come gradually.
  • It will increase the depth of commodity market which is facing liquidity crunch in many commodities. It will raise the arbitrage opportunity to them as well as new window will be available to them and INR will also play a crucial role.
  • It will help less liquid contracts and foreign players will enjoy the new tools of Indian Commodity Exchanges viz; options in many commodities and Indices trading along with futures.
  • Increased participation will encourage Indian exchanges to launch more contracts with permission of SEBI.
  • India may play a greater role in the global commodity trade given its consumption for key commodities like gold.
  • In addition, their participation may help bring down the transaction costs in the commodity futures segment.

Since FPIs are allowed in only in cash-settled contracts and Sebi said position limits for FPIs (other than individuals, family offices and corporate bodies) will be at par with those presently applicable for mutual fund schemes as a client. Hence, don’t expect flood of liquidity. So question still remains, can enhanced liquidity gradually enable the Indian commodity derivative market to serve as a global benchmark for various commodities thereby shifting India from the role of price taker to a price setter? However, considering that around 10,000 FPIs are presently registered in India, even if a tenth of them participate in the Indian commodity derivatives market, the same may bring considerable liquidity in Indian ETCDs segment. New launched futures and options in Indices will gain more attraction. Indian exchanges have world class infra and technology will make this market viable.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

The IndianRupee ended in the red for the third straight quarter amid a global rate hike weighing on emerging markets. Indian Rupee lost more than 5.5% on a yearto-date basis and on top of that RBI intervention to support the domestic currency is seen as negligible. Additionally dropped in forward premiums to a decade low kept the rupee vulnerable to falling below 79.00 to a dollar for the first time in history. We think the weakness in the rupee will continue in the coming days and may fall towards 79.80-80.00 in the coming days. Meanwhile yesterday US Core PCE Price Index moved down to 4.7% in May, its 3rd straight monthly decline. This is the Fed's "preferred measure of inflation" and could have an impact on rate hike expectations. From the majors, the euro faced its worst quarterly performance in six years. Based on the current inflation reading in the EZ further justifies the ECB’s plan to hike interest rates for the first time in 11 years at next month’s meeting. Technically we will remain slightly bearish on the euro and similar action can be taken on the pound too. On the other hand, we remain cautious about the USDJPY as well JPYINR move for the next week.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (JUL) contract closed at 79.1300 on 30-June-22. The contract made its high of 79.5300 on 27-June-22 and a low of 78.4250 on 27-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 78.3918.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 80.70.One can buy at 79.00 for the target of 80.00 with the stop loss of 78.50.

GBP/INR (JUL) contract closed at 95.8400 on 30-June-22. The contract made its high of 96.9850 on 28-June-22 and a low of 95.8000 on 30-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 96.2723.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.80. One can sell at 96.50 for a target of 95.50 with the stop loss of 97.00.

News Flows of last week

30th JUN India raises export tax on petrol, diesel and ATFn
30th JUN US annual Core PCE inflation falls to 4.7% in May as expected
29th JUN US Q1 final GDP -1.6% vs -1.5% expected
29th JUN Sebi lets FPIs to participate in exchange-traded commodity derivatives mkt
29th JUN Fed's Mester: Right now I would advocate for 75 bps rate hike
29th JUN ECB's Simkus: 50 bps rate hike very likely for September
28th JUN Sanctions will not target food, agricultural products from Russia - G7 statement
28th JUN G7 to explore caps on energy prices to curb Russian revenues
27th JUN US Durable Goods Orders Up 0.7% in May

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (JUL) contract closed at 82.4525 on 30-June-22. The contract made its high of 83.8450 on 28-June-22 and a low of 82.3950 on 30-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 82.7371.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.62. One can buy at 82.80 for a target of 83.80 with the stop loss of 82.30.

JPY/INR (JUL) contract closed at 58.1675 on 30-June-22. The contract made its high of 58.4050 on 27- June-22 and a low of 57.9125 on 30-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.5481.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.26. One can buy at 58.50 for a target of 59.50 with the stop loss of 58.00.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

Healthvista India files draft papers for IPO

Healthvista India Limited has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator SEBI to raise about Rs 1,000 crore through an initial public offering. The company is an out-of-hospital healthcare provider with brand Portea. The IPO (Initial Public Offering) comprises fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 200 crore and an Offer For sale (OFS) of up to 56,252,644 shares by selling shareholders, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). Under the OFS, Accel Growth III Holdings (Mauritius) Limited; Accel India III (Mauritius) Limited, Ventureast Life Fund III LLC Limited, MEMG CDC Ventures; Qualcomm Asia Pacific Pte Ltd, Accel India V (Mauritius) and Sabre Partners Trust will offload shares. According to market sources, the IPO is expected to fetch about Rs 1,000 crore. Proceeds from the fresh issue will be used towards funding working capital requirements of its subsidiary, Medybiz Pharma, payment of debt, purchase of medical equipment, marketing as well as brand building activities, inorganic growth initiatives and general corporate purposes. SBI Capital Markets, IIFL Securities and JM Financial are the book running Lead managers to the issue. The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE.

Stitched Textiles Limited files IPO upto Rs. 200 Crore with SEBI

Barcelona- brand of Stitched Textiles Limited- India’s leading men’s wear fashion brand, has filed its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds upto Rs. 200 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). According to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), the planned IPO would be entirely through a new issue of equity shares. The company plans to expand its retail business by opening upto130 Exclusive Brand Outlets. Finshore Management Services Limited are the Book Running lead managers to the IPO. The Company’s flagship brand ‘Barcelona’, is one of the famous brands known for men’s wear garments at PAN India level.Since the company's incorporation, it has expanded offerings under the "Barcelona" brand to include a wide product range of Men's Wear like Shirts, Trousers, T- Shirts, Denims, Suits, Blazers, Trunks, Vests, Boxers, Tracks and such other various products. The brand strongly believes in providing their customers with high-end fashion products at a very affordable and economical pricing.

Innova Captab files draft papers for IPO with Sebi

Pharmaceutical company Innova Captab Ltd has filed preliminary papers with the capital markets regulator Sebi to raise as much as Rs 900 crore through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The proposed IPO comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 400 crore and an Offer For Sale (OFS) of 96 lakh equity shares by promoters and other shareholders, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). As part of the OFS, Manoj Kumar Lohariwala, Vinay Kumar Lohariwala and Gian Parkash Aggarwal will sell 32 lakh shares each. At present, promoters -- Manoj and Vinay -- hold 39.66 per cent and 30.08 per cent stake, respectively, in the company, while Gian owns a 30.23 per cent holding in the pharma firm. Besides, the company may consider pre-IPO placement of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 80 crore. If such a placement is undertaken, the size of the fresh issue will be reduced. Out of the Rs 400 crore proposed to be raised through fresh issuance of equity shares, Rs 180.5 crore will be used for payment of debt and Rs 29.5 crore will be utilised for payment of loans availed by its subsidiary UML. The Haryana-based Innova Captab is an integrated pharmaceutical company in India with a presence across the pharmaceuticals value chain including research and development, manufacturing, drug distribution and marketing and exports. The company's business includes providing research, product development and manufacturing services to Indian pharmaceutical firms, domestic branded generics as well as international branded generics businesses. It has two manufacturing facilities in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh and a new facility is to come up in Jammu.

Global Surfaces files IPO draft papers with Sebi

Global Surfaces Ltd, which is engaged in the business of processing natural stones and manufacturing engineered quartz, has filed preliminary papers with Sebi to mop up funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO comprises fresh issuance of 85.20 lakh equity shares and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 25.5 lakh equity shares by promoters ---- Mayank Shah and Sweta Shah, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). Funds raised through fresh issuance of equity shares will be used for setting up the company's proposed facility -- Global Surfaces FZE-- in Dubai. For FY22, the company posted a profit after tax of Rs 35.63 crore as compared to Rs 33.93 crore in FY21 and its total income was at Rs 198.35 crore as against Rs 179 crore in FY21. Unistone Capital is the sole book running lead manager to the issue. The equity shares of the company will be listed on the BSE and NSE. PTI SP SP ANU ANU.

Allied Blenders files papers for Rs 2,000-cr IPO

City-based Allied Blenders and Distillers has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with Sebi for a ₹2,000 crore initial public offering (IPO). The issue will consist of a fresh share issue worth up to ₹1,000 crore and an offer-for-sale of ₹1,000 crore by the promoter and existing shareholders. Bina Kishore Chhabria is expected to sell shares worth up to ₹500 crore, while Resham Chhabria along with Jeetendra Hemdev and Neesha Kishore Chhabria are likely to sell shares worth ₹250 crore each. The proceeds from its fresh issuance worth ₹708.98 crore will be utilised for prepayment or scheduled re-payment of a portion of certain outstanding borrowings and balance for general corporate purposes. The company may consider a preferential issue of equity shares or another method aggregating up to ₹200 crore.

J M Baxi Ports & Logistics Ltd is set to file draft papers for an IPO

Bain Capital-backed J M Baxi Ports & Logistics Ltd is set to file draft papers for an initial public offering (IPO) . J M Baxi Ports & Logistics plans to deploy about ₹1,000 crore for acquisitions over the next three to four years. In February 2021, Bain Capital, through its affiliate Integral Investments South East Asia VIII, had spent ₹1,317 crore for a 39.20% stake. Of this, ₹200 crore was infused in FY22 for the purchase of a 26% stake in Visakha Container Terminal Pvt. Ltd from DP World and two acquisitions under JM Baxi Heavy Pvt. Ltd. The Krishna Kotak family owns a 60.8% stake in J M Baxi Ports & Logistics. Meanwhile, J M Baxi Heavy in March agreed to acquire Allcargo Logistics Ltd’s project forwarding and logistics business. For FY21, J M Baxi Ports & Logistics narrowed its consolidated net loss to ₹5 crore from ₹46 crore a year earlier, according to the latest available data. Operating income grew to ₹1,425 crore in FY21 from ₹1,266 crore in FY20.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Nippon India Mutual Fund stops inflows in five international funds

A month after resuming inflows into its international funds, Nippon India Mutual Fund has decided to stop fresh investments in the schemes. The fund house has suspended lumpsum subscription, switch-ins and fresh registration of SIP/STP under the five schemes that invest in international stocks. The move is to protect the breach of the available overseas investment limit put by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. On June 22, Nippon India Mutual Fund had announced opening up of its schemes – Nippon India US Equity Opportunities Fund, Nippon India Japan Equity Fund, Nippon India Taiwan Equity Fund, Nippon India Multi Asset Fund and Nippon India ETF Hang Seng BeES- after SEBI allowed fund houses to invest in overseas stocks to the extent they have sold since February 1, 2022. “Post the resumption of the subscription in certain NIMF schemes investing in overseas securities, there has been substantial utilization of available overseas investment limit. Therefore, with a view to avoid breach of the overseas investment limit as of EOD of February 1, 2022, we propose to suspend lumpsum subscription, switch-ins and fresh registration of SIP/STP or such other special product under the following NIMF schemes, w.e.f June 29, 2022,” the AMC said in a notice.

AMCs prepare to launch new mutual fund schemes as Sebi restriction ends

After a temporary pause, asset management companies are gearing up to launch new mutual fund schemes from the next month as capital markets regulator Sebi's three-month ban on the introduction of new fund offerings nears its end. Moreover, asset management companies (AMCs) have a lineup of passive funds on the fixed income and equity side as well as selective launches in certain categories to fill product gaps. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had discontinued the launch of NFOs until the new systems concerning pool accounts were determined and the regulator had set July 1 as the deadline for the implementation of the new system. So far this month, at least six AMCs -- including PGIM India Mutual Fund (MF), Sundaram MF, Baroda BNP Paribas MF, LIC MF and Franklin India MF -- have filed offer documents with Sebi seeking its approval to launch new schemes.

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 30/06/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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