Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global markets looked cautious as evidence of a tight labor market eroded hopes that the Federal Reserve could pause its rating hiking cycle anytime soon as it keeps focused on inflation. Going forward, it is expected that the interest will continue to remain elevated even in the year 2023. However, the tone of Fed will be less hawkish. The real impact of Fed rate hikes is yet to reflect in the economy particularly corporate earnings, consumer demand, and the job sector. The Fed is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting, which concludes Feb. 1, although it is expected that it could be a smaller increase than December’s halfpercentage- point hike. German inflation eased for a second month in a row in December due to falling energy prices and the government's one-off payment of household energy bills, coming in below expectations even as analysts warn that a continued slowdown is not a given. Besides, Chinese stock market also continued to witness volatile trade on news reports Chinese officials would remove restrictions on property developer borrowing. Now Investors are feeling optimistic that Chinese regulators will go easy on tech firms such as Alibaba, JD.com and Pinduoduo this year and also introduce measures to boost growth in the industry. Actually, Chinese tech companies have faced a sweeping regulatory crackdown since late 2020, which drove investors away.

Back at home, domestic markets continued to witness volatile session tracking global cues and consistent selling by foreign investors. Financials led the losses in the domestic market, following dismal business numbers from NBFC leader. India’s services PMI expanded to 58.5 in December owing to stronger growth in new business. Apart from global cues, the domestic market will pay close attention to corporate earnings. The improving macroeconomic environment, positive steps being taken by the government and the expected stimulus of the upcoming Union Budget is expected to push the market higher.

On the commodity market front, a pause was witnessed in the first week of 2023 as dollar index saw bounce after Fed Minutes showed policymakers still focused on controlling the pace of price increases that threatened to run hotter than anticipated amid some weaker economic data. Now Crude oil is trading lower on concerns around China COVID-19 and the Fed forcing a global recession as both are demand destruction events. Crude prices are likely to trade in a band of 5800-6400 levels. Bullion may see a pause in the rally after a well-built upside. Gold and silver may trade in the range of 54000-56800 levels and 67000-71000 levels respectively. Base metals are witnessing buying on every dip on supply tightens. Lower inventory in LME is also suggesting supply squeeze whereas Covid issue and weaker economic data is capping the upside. Inflation Rate of Mexico, Inflation Rate and New Yuan Loans of China, Core Inflation Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel and Inflation Rate of US, GDP of UK, Full Year GDP Growth of Germany, etc are some important data scheduled to release this week which will give much needed direction to the commodities prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • According to results of the purchasing managers' survey by S&P Global, India’s services Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to 58.5 in December from 56.4 in November. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Lupin announced the launch of a novel fixed-dose triple drug combination (FDC) of Indacaterol, Glycopyrronium and Mometasone for managing inadequately controlled asthma amongst patients. The company has launched this important product under the brand name DIFIZMA® in India.
  • Granules India has entered into a strategic partnership with Greenko Group to develop a first-of-its-kind Integrated Green Pharmaceutical Zones (GPZ) starting with Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh.
  • Themis Medicare launched Lenzetto, a global brand of Estradiol Novel Drug Delivery System for treatment of menopausal symptoms.
Oil & Gas
  • Hindustan Petroleum Corporation has forayed into Petrochemical Business with pre-marketing of "HP DURAPOL" brand polymers. This is a pre-cursor to marketing of HPCL Rajasthan Refinery (HRRL) petrochemical products.
  • Hindustan Petroleum Corporation forayed into petrochemical business with pre-marketing of HP Durapol branded polymersin a pre-cursor to setting up a 9MMTPA refining and petrochemical complex in Rajasthan.
Power
  • NTPC has commissioned India's first green hydrogen blending project in the piped natural gas network of NTPC Kawas township, Surat.
Telecom
  • RailTel Corporation of India has received a work order worth Rs 186.19 crore from South Eastern Coalfields for providing MPLS VPN services at 529 Locations under SECL Command Area for the period of five years.
Construction
  • Rail Vikas Nigam has received order worth Rs 166 crore from Gujarat Metro Rail Corporation for design, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of ballast-less track from Sarthana to Dream City under first phase of Surat Metro Rail Project.
Textile
  • Kewal Kiran Clothing (KKCL) announced its strategic partnership with Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) as the Indian Cricket Team's “Official Partner”. This alliance will see KKCL's flagship brand ‘KILLER' displayed on the right upper chest of the Team India jersey.
Refractories
  • RHI Magnesita announced the acquisition of the Indian refractory business of Dalmia Bharat Refractories (DBRL). DBRL is one of India's leading refractory players and a long-term trusted partner to customers in the region.
Miscellaneous
  • Godrej Agrovet will be setting up an edible oil processing plant in Khammam district in Telangana, at an investment of Rs 250 crore. The facility to process palm oil will have a capacity of 30 tonnes per hour expandable to 60 TPH. This would be the single largest private investment in the Khammam district.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting, reinforcing expectations the central bank is likely to continuing raising interest rates. The minutes reiterated that officials continue to anticipate that ongoing rate increases would be appropriate to achieve the Fed's dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
  • US trade deficit shrank to $61.5 billion in November from a revised $77.8 billion in October. Economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $74.0 billion from the $78.2 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims slipped to 204,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level of 223,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 225,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.4 in December from 49.0 in November, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Economists had expected the index to slip to 48.5.
  • US construction spending crept up by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of $1.808 trillion in November after edging down by 0.2 percent to a revised rate of $1.803 trillion in October.
  • The monetary base in Japan was down 6.1 percent on year in December, the Bank of Japan said - coming in at 617.222 trillion yen. That follows the 6.4 percent decline in November and marks the fourth straight month of contraction.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

TRIVENI TURBINE LIMITED
CMP: 253.40
Target Price: 302
Upside: 19%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 309.00/146.90
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 8192.56
  • EPS (Rs.) 4.74
  • P/E Ratio (times) 53.46
  • P/B Ratio (times) 9.20
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.01
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Triveni Turbine has core competency in the area of industrial steam turbines designing and manufacturing up to 100 MW size. The company is a market leader in industrial steam turbines up to 30 MW in India and also among the leading manufacturers of industrial steam turbines in >5 to 30 MW range globally.
  • The Company achieved yet another quarterly high in total order booking, of Rs. 361 crores in Q2 FY 23 as against Rs.307 crores during Q2 FY 22, an increase of 18%. Total consolidated outstanding order book stood at Rs. 1137 crores as on Sep 30, 2022 which is higher by 37% when compared to the previous year. The export outstanding order book has grown more than 100% over the corresponding period in the last year and stood at Rs. 491 crores as on Sep 30, 2022, contributing to 43% of the closing order book.
  • It is also in the process of expansion and after expansion its capacity will increase from the current 150-180 turbines to 200-250 turbines per annum. The company has registered a 22% rise in international queries due to the current global power crisis.
  • The company leads with a market share of 50-60% in the 0-30 MW segment in India with industry-leading margin. In the international addressable market, the company has a share of ~20%. The addressable global market size for 0-30 MW is 1.5x Indian market.
  • With strong focus in enquiry generation and aggressive coverage plans, both in domestic and international markets, the management expect to convert large opportunities in the imminent future.
  • High value-additive nature of company’s operations has resulted in healthy profitability over the years. The company remains largely debt-free and strong accruals ensure that it will continue to have a healthy balance sheet.

Risk

  • Increase in commodity prices
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

With the strong carry forward order book at the end of Q2 FY 23, the company believes that the company is geared to push its growth levels further. The company forays into new segments such as energyefficient API turbines for Oil & Gas industry and turbines between 30.1-100 MW, will help widen the net of addressable market. The Company is on track for a strong multi-year growth trajectory aided by positive momentum in its addressable markets, ably supported by focused business strategy and execution. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.302 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BV of 9.20x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.32.87.

P/B Chart

VA TECH WABAG LIMITED
CMP: 331.90
Target Price: 398
Upside: 20%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 374.90/220.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 2064.10
  • EPS (Rs.) 26.90
  • P/E Ratio (times) 12.34
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.29
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The Company is a global leader in the water industry backed by rich experience spanning over 98 years. It has over 1,600 water professionals, spread over 25 countries in 4 continents. It has built over 1,400 municipal and industrial plants in various geographies across the globe over the last 3 decades, with customized solutions matching to its customers' needs. It is a complete life-cycle partner for building water and wastewater infrastructure across various business models.
  • The company secured a repeat order from Purolite S.R.L, Romania (‘Purolite’) worth about Rs. 260 Crores (EUR 30 Million) towards upgrading the Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plant (‘WWTP’) in Romania. The project is scheduled to be executed over a 24-month period.
  • In its ongoing debt optimization efforts through long term and low cost funding sources, the company has signed an agreement with Asian Development Bank (‘ADB’) towards raising Rs. 200 crores through unlisted Non-Convertible Debentures (‘NCD’) carrying a 5 years and 3 months tenor. The capital raised will be used towards working capital requirements and is within the current borrowing limits of the company.
  • It has robust order book of about Rs. 10,300 crore with almost half of it coming from overseas geographies and projects. The quality of the order book is also enhanced with the majority mix of multilateral and federal government projects, industrial jobs backed by adequate payment securities, largely in the desalination and wastewater treatment space including recycled reuse and effluent treatment plants.
  • As a group, the strategy is to focus on international geographies, industrial projects, advanced technology plants and EP, (Engineering Procurement) business with a continued focus on service business, which is O&M, has helped in both execution excellence and improved operating margins.
  • During the quarter ended September 2022, operating margins continued to improve driven by increase in International EP projects and execution pace. Revenue up YoY with the supply chain and project activities getting normalized to the pre- COVID levels. Reduction in borrowing cost through actions on debt control and cost of borrowing.

Risk

  • Highly competitive
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

The company`s consistent level of order book over Rs. 10,000 crore in the past few quarters gives it a very good confidence about revenue visibility. It strategic focuses on international geographies and projects over the last few years have helped in margin improvement. Its ongoing debt optimization is also helping the company to reduce its borrowing cost. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 398 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/Ex of 12.34x and FY24 EPS of Rs.32.25.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION LIMITED (HPCL)

The stock closed at Rs 249.90 on 06th January, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs 200.05 on 20th October, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 332.20 on 20th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 234.34

We can see on chart that the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, the stock has formed a “Continuation Triangle” pattern on weekly chart, and has given the breakout of pattern and also has managed to close above the same, so follow up buying is anticipated from the stock in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 245-247 levels for the upside target of 275-280 levels with SL below 229 levels.

THE RAMCO CEMENTS LIMITED (RAMCOCEM)

The stock closed at Rs 713.85 on 06th January, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs 575.65 on 20th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1054.80 on 11th January, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 736.88

Short term and medium term bias are looking positive for the stock and it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart, which are bullish in nature. Apart from this, stock is forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart, which is considered to be bullish. On the indicators front such RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 705-708 levels for the upside target of 760-770 levels with SL below 675 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets witnessed heavy sell off in the week gone by as Investor risk sentiment took a blow post the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which indicated further rate hikes in 2023. From derivative front, hefty call writing was observed at 18000 strike while put writers remained on the back foot with marginal open interest seen at 17800 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 13.39% while that for put options closed at 14.38%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 14.98%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.29. Technically both the indices can be seen trading with formation of lower bottom pattern and likely to remain under pressure in upcoming week as well. For Nifty, 17700 would act as an immediate support below, which further selling pressure can be seen and this may move index towards 17500 as well. Traders are advised to remain cautious as markets are expected to remain highly volatile in the upcoming week.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 05th January, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices are likely to trade down due to muted domestic demand. Improved crop condition and hand to mouth buying by spice millers kept prices under pressure. Stockists are expected to release their stocks in wake of commencement of new crop season ahead in Mar’23. However, losses are likely to be limited in the wake of better demand prospects. Demand from health care industry is likely to increase with growing fear of resurgence of Covid -19 in India as it is used as immunity booster against Covid. Increased export enquires after recent fall in prices and weaker production outlook is likely to cap the major downfall in prices. India exported about 99 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Jan’22-Oct’22 compared to 89 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Turmeric Apr prices are expected to trade in range of 7400-8300.

Jeera NCDEX Mar futures witnessed profit booking in later part of the week after making record high level at NCDEX platform. Robust export demand and supply tightness in physical market fueled up the rally in jeera prices. Some profit booking is likely to be seen in Jeera as stockists have started releasing their stocks after recent gains in prices. Marginal buyers are away from bulk buying due to higher prices. However, major trend in jeera is still bullish due to supply concerns. About 2.74 lakh hectares were sown under jeera in Gujarat till 2nd Jan’23 as compared to 3.0 lakh hectares of previous year, down by 10% Y-o-Y. Jeera Mar prices are likely to trade in range of 33000- 36000.

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr prices are likely to trade on weaker note due to lukewarm demand at physical market. Reports of rise in area under dhaniya and better yield prospects supported by normal crop progress will weigh on the market sentiments. Area under dhaniya in Gujarat was reported at 2.21 lakh hectares as on 2nd Jan’23 compared to 1.25 lakh hectares of previous year, higher by 78% Y-o-Y. Supplies are adequate at major trading centers due to rising imports that is keeping buyers away from bulk buying. Dhaniya NCDEX Apr Prices are likely to trade in range of 8400-9300.

BULLIONS

Gold prices were on track for a third straight weekly gain, with investors keenly awaiting key U.S. jobs reports to gauge the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike stance. The market’s focus shifts to the U.S. Labor Department’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls. Higher-than-expected job gains and more persistent wage pressures may be catalysts to add pressure on gold. Gold prices have been finding its way higher since November as bullish bets in dollar and yields unwind. For 2023, gold prices may continue to draw in buyers but it might face some risk from hawkish pushback from policymakers. Benchmark 10-year yields inched lower for the day. Few Fed officials reiterated their fight to lower inflation back to its 2% target, but St. Louis leader James Bullard said 2023 could finally bring some relief on the inflation front. Higher rates dim bullion’s anti-inflationary appeal and raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Data showed that U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in December while number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a three-month low last week, pointing to a stilltight labor market that could force the Fed to keep hiking interest rates. On the technical front, COMEX gold is presently trading in the wider range of 1810-1860, break on either side will define the next trend. Silver on COMEX may trade with bearish bias and may target $22.000 and could face resistance near $24.020. Ahead in the week, Gold may trade in the range of 53600-56000 levels with bearish bias. Silver may witness selling and the possible trading range would be 66500-71500 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices slipped near 7% as concerns about immediate global oil demand intensified with soaring Covid cases in China and slowing economies globally. U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, had plummeted below $75 per barrel and Brent Crude oil below $80. The recent sell-off in oil was the result of gloomy economic expectations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the state of the Chinese and global economy in the early weeks of 2023, and a strong U.S. dollar. Surging Covid cases in China and a slowdown in the Chinese economy are expected to weigh on oil demand and prices in the immediate term. The market is currently focused on a short-term deterioration in demand as China struggles with Covid-19, milder weather reduces demand for heating fuels, and the IMF’s latest warning that one-third of the world may suffer a recession in 2023. Data from EIA showed that distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, dropped more than expected in the week to Dec. 30. They fell by 1.4 million barrels, compared with expectation of a 396,000 barrel drop. Ahead in the week price may continue to witness selling but some bounce is expected from lower levels. The possible trading range for crude oil would be 5800-6500. Natural Gas prices slipped over 18% as temperatures have been warmer in both the United States and Europe over the last several days, and of course Freeport is now online, offering even more LNG to the market. Furthermore, the economic activity continues to slow down globally, and that means we will have even less demand for natural gas. Ahead in the week, natural gas prices continue to trade with bearish bias and the possible trading range would be 270-340.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bullish bias as investors are hoping that China's efforts to bolster its economy will improve demand for metals. Economists and analysts believe policymakers in China will roll out more support measures to stimulate demand this year, as part of Beijing's overall goal to bolster the $17 trillion economy after a sharp COVID-induced downturn. But spikes in China's COVID-19 cases and the Lunar New Year holiday this month are expected to dampen metals demand in the world's top consumer of industrial metals. China’s manufacturing sector activity contracted at a sharper pace in December as surging covid infections disrupted production and weighed on demand, a survey of purchasing managers (PMIs) showed. Copper may trade in the range of 705-740 levels. The global copper smelting activity dipped in December as smelters shut for maintenance after a year of sluggish activity, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. On the output front, Chile's total copper production fell 6.9% in November to 449,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said. Zinc can trade in the range of 265-280. China’s imports of refined zinc in November 2022 stood at 11,600 mt, a month-on-month increase of 1,054.62%, but a year-onyear decrease of 44.77%. Lead can move in the range of 182-195. Aluminum may trade in the range of 195-215 levels with bearish bias. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers a premium of $86 per tonne over the benchmark price for January-March shipments, down 13% from the current quarter. Steel long (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 47200- 49500 on NCDEX.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Kapas NCDEX Apr prices are likely to trade mixed to down in expectation of rise in supplies. Arrivals have slipped below to 1 lakh bales /day and this has restricted the downfall in cotton and Kapas Prices. Total cotton arrivals were reported at 80-85 lakh bales till Dec’22 as compared to 140 lakh bales of previous year. Sluggish demand concerns backed by surging cases of corona in China and looming uncertainty over recession kept millers away from heavy buying. Farmers stayed away from the panic selling at lower rate. In the wake of supply tightness in physical market, Indian government has allowed dutyfree import of 3 lakh bales of cotton from Australia. Cotton imports from Australia will not only boost the supplies but also put pressure on domestic prices. Kapas Apr NCDEX prices are likely to face resistance of 1740 and expected to correct from there towards 1650.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Feb futures are likely to trade sideways to down due to sluggish demand at physical market. Stockists are avoiding bulk buying due to recent gains in prices wherein demand from feed meal industry is also lower in wake of commencement of mustard crop in Mar. Mustard seed oil cake has been the major substitute of cotton seed oil cake in feed industry. However, Farmers are reluctant to release cotton in the market that may cap the major downfall in prices. Prices are likely to trade in range of 2900-3300.

Guar seed Feb futures are likely to trade sideways due to absence of fresh cues in the market. Growing fear of recession will keep export demand of gum down that will reflect as weakness in prices. Stockists may release their stocks in fear of further fall in prices. However, lower production of guar seed will keep the major trend bullish in long term. Guar seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5800-6400.

Mentha oil Jan is likely to trade in mixed to higher due to improved buying in local market. Supplies have been tighter due to lower production in year 2022 that has affected the pace of arrivals as well. Prices are likely to trade in the range of 1020-1070.

Castor seed Feb prices are likely to trade on weaker note in wake of sluggish export demand. Growing fear of recession and increased cases of corona pandemic in China is likely to keep export demand for castor oil down that result into fall in crushing activities. Millers are avoiding bulk buying in wake of commencement of new crop of castor after Jan. Supply tightness in physical market is likely to restrict the major downfall in prices. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6900-7400.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ZINC MCX
Contract: JAN
M*.High: 272.00
M*.Low: 265.55

It closed at Rs. 270.10 on 05th Jan 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 273.91. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.584. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.267 for a target of Rs. 282 with the stop loss of 260

GOLD MCX
Contract: FEB
M*.High: 56010.00
M*.Low: 55040.00

It closed at Rs. 55290.00 on 05th Jan 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 53797.50. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.393. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 55500 for a target of Rs. 54500 with the stop loss of 56020.

DHANIYA NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 8868.00
M*.Low: 8410.00

It closed at Rs. 8528.00 on 05th Jan 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 9370.40 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.725. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 8700 for a target of Rs. 9300 with the stop loss of 8400.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • Cabinet approves National Green Hydrogen Mission with outlay of Rs 19,744 cr.
  • Production of eight infrastructure sectors increased by 5.4 per cent in November against a 3.2 per cent growth in the same month last year on a better show by coal, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity segments, according to the official data released.
  • Windfall tax on crude oil has been hiked to 2,100 rupees ($25.38) per tonne from 1,700 rupees ($20.55), effective on January 3, the government order said.
  • India's exports of finished steel fell 54.1% to 4.74 million tonnes between April and December, as consumption dropped in major global markets.
  • Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia lowered prices for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia to $1.80 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, the lowest since November 2021.
  • The central government has removed stocking limits on edible oil and oilseed after a good sowing of mustard, and softening of global edible oil prices.
  • The Union government is likely sell 2.1 million tonnes of wheat from its stocks in the open market at a federally determined price in a move aimed at easing supplies of the staple and controlling high cereal inflation, as per Reuters.
  • Coffee shipments from India, Asia’s third-largest producer and exporter, rose 1.66 per cent to 4 lakh tonne in 2022 on rise in instant coffee exports and reexports. Exports stood at 3.93 lakh tonne in 2022.
  • Chile's total copper production fell 6.9% in November to 449,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

A pause was witnessed in the first week of 2023 as dollar index saw bounce after Fed Minutes showed policymakers still focused on controlling the pace of price increases that threatened to run hotter than anticipated amid some weaker economic data. The minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting, released late Wednesday, indicated agreement that the central bank should slow the pace of aggressive interest rate increases, but the policymakers were still keen to emphasize their focus on combating inflation. The Fed members said they favored a "restrictive policy stance for a sustained period," until inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, and that was likely to take "some time." Energy counter slipped on mild weather in US and European Area amid global weakness news. Europe's wholesale natural gas prices, plunged to their lowest level since their record highs after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February 2022. A mild winter has enabled European Union countries to tap less gas from stocks that were built up in anticipation of cuts in supplies from Russia, which was the E.U.’s main supplier before the war. On MCX, it made a low of 328 levels and recovered from low but overall closed the week in red zone. Oil fell by more than $4 a barrel on last Wednesday, posting the steepest percentage loss in the first two trading days of any year for over 3 decades, as investors worried about fuel demand as the global economy slows and COVID-19 cases grow in China. Brent has fallen by about 9.4% last week, its steepest two-day loss at the start of the year since January 1991. The Chinese government increased export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch for 2023, signaling expectations of poor domestic demand. Base metals mostly traded in a range as weaker news capped the upside and supply tightness limited the fall. U.S. manufacturing contracted further in December, dropping for a second straight month to 48.4 from 49.0 in November, in the weakest reading since May 2020, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said. At the same time, a survey from the U.S. Labor Department showed job openings fell less than expected, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve would use the tight labor market as a reason to keep rates higher for longer. Steel prices were in range after a five week surge.

Jeera saw a pause in the six week super rally on profit booking from the higher side; however it managed to close the week on a positive note. Turmeric closed down on smooth supply while dhaniya was in range. Buyers were active after recent fall in prices. However, gains are likely to be limited, as production prospects of dhaniya are looking good due to sharp rise in area under dhaniya in year 2022. Castor seed revived from the low of 6926 and touch 7256 in two week time frame. Guar had a week start on fall in crude oil prices. Cotton oil seed cake prices zoomed up further. Mentha gave slow but steady upside on improved spot demand.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Movement of Commodities in 2022(On MCX & NCDEX)

The year 2022 witnessed some unpleasant memorable historical events which kept the entire world and financial market tizzy. Commodity markets too felt the pressure, with the onset of war between Russia and Ukraine, the whole world was in shock as these two are the bread basket of world. With many sanctions amid high demand in addition to record shipment charges, many commodities saw historic highs and inflation engulfing the entire world. To tame the inflation, major Central Banks buckled up for Interest rate hike and here comes the end of “low interest rate Era”.

The yellow metal gold is known as the shield against inflation and lone savior of portfolio during the gloomy markets. Gold price surged to high of 55,558 in the Q1 of 2022, after that prices slipped to a low of 48972 in the month of Sep. 2022 amid higher bond yields and stronger dollar. Although we again witnessed buying since November as there was expectation of shift in the central bank’s policy. Finally on MCX , gold closed more than 14 % higher. Silver also closed almost 11% in green.

Crude oil prices witnessed wonderful rally in the first quarter of 2022 and on MCX , it surged to all time high of 9996 levels in the month of March amid Russia-Ukraine war saga. Broader concerns about the global economic growth and demand concerns helped the prices to cool off, and their performance has been a rollercoaster ever since. But best performer was natural gas which witnessed tremendous returns of over 189% from low to high, amid Russia and Ukraine conflict due to declining demand & profit booking at higher level finally closed 37% up.

Jeera was cynosure of 2022 with more than 103% strong rally due to supply concerns as production dropped in major producing states across India and higher export. Castor seed prices extended their gains for third consecutive year in a row in year 2022 tracking supply tightness in domestic as well as in International market. Turmeric has lost its luster as total supply jumped 12% Y-o-Y and remained higher compared to five year average level that kept the prices down for most part of the year 2022.

Guar complex prices traded down for most part of year 2022 as the slowdown in economic activities and persistent weakness in crude oil prices weighed on the market sentiments. But the prices have shown sharp recovery in new crop season (2022-23) started in Oct’22 following cues from the reports of crop damage in major producing states. Uneven distribution of rainfall in Rajasthan during Aug’22- Sep’22 impacted the yield badly that later erased the possibilities of bumper production.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Fed story is back in early 2023 after US economic data started to print better than expected just before the crucial US monthly payroll data release. This week back-to-back economic releases starting private payrolls beat estimates while weekly jobless claims dropped to three months low and the US trade deficit shrink to two-year lows amid lower import demand which ultimately favored the dollar over the majority of the currencies. Rupee at the same time got supported by lower oil prices which dropped to one year low amid uncertainties over oil demand in the wake of the recession as well as an ongoing flip-flop in the Chinese economy on re-opening issues. Technical support for the USDINR now stands at 82.30 - 82.40 on the spot while resistance is now placed in the 82.90 - 83.00 zone on a weekly basis. Going forward, euro and pound will be guided by the US monthly payroll release for the month of December before the week ended. Expectations are for a 200,00 print and any miss will lead to a sharp fall in the dollar. On the flip side, if the headline print comes in-line or above, it may lift the dollar index towards 106.00 as well. From an inflation perspective, the average hourly earnings are expected to dip a touch but still remain elevated at 5% for the YoY figure.

USDINR (JAN)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.25 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.16 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.70 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.00.

One can buy on dip 82.50 for the target of 83.40 with the stop loss of 82.10.

GBPINR (JAN)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 97.30 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 100.28 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 99.70. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.56.

One can sell on bounce near 99.00 for the target of 98.00 with the stop loss of 99.50.

EURINR (JAN) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 86.30 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 88.30 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 87.54. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.00.

One can sell on rise near 87.40 for the target of 87.90 with the stop loss of 86.40.

JPYINR (JAN) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 61.31 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 63.35 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 62.00. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.45.

One can buy on dip near 61.90 for the target of 62.90 with the stop loss of 61.40.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

Radiant Cash Management Services lists at 10% premium over issue price

The stock opened at Rs 103, up 9.57 percent from its issue price of Rs 94 per share on the NSE. It opened at Rs 99.30 on the BSE, up 5.6 percent. Incorporated in 2005, Radiant Cash Management Services provides retail cash management services for banks, financial institutions, and organized retail and e-commerce companies in India. Its key clients are ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Citibank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research at Stoxbox, who had given an 'avoid' rating to the IPO due to rich valuation vis-à-vis its peer group (SIS and CMS Info Systems) and limited competitive advantage in the marketplace, feels that investors who got allotment should look for better opportunities in the market. Mohit Nigam, Fund Manager and Head of PMS at Hem Securities, believes investors should make an informed judgment about the company and its future prospects.

JG Chemicals files draft IPO papers with Sebi to raise funds

JG Chemicals Ltd has filed a draft red herring prospectus with the Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to raise funds through an initial public offering. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 202.50 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to 5.70 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to 3.64 million shares by Vision Projects and Finvest Pvt Ltd, 1.4 lakh shares by Jayanti Commercial Ltd, 1.27 million shares by Suresh Kumar Jhunjhunwala (HUF) and 6.5 lakh shares by Anirudh Jhunjhunwalal (HUF). The proceeds from the fresh issue will be used for investment in its material arm BDJ Oxides. The company will use Rs 45 crore for repayment of debt, Rs 5.31 crore to set up a research and development centre, Rs 65 crore for funding its long-term working capital requirement for its subsidiary and Rs 35 crore for its own long-term working capital requirement. As of December 2022, the total outstanding borrowings of BDJ Oxides amounted to Rs 54.65 crore. Centrum Capital and Emkay Global Financial Services are the book running lead managers to the issue. JG Chemicals is India's largest zinc oxide manufacturer and the tyre industry are the largest consumers of this product. The company is also a leading supplier of paints manufacturers, footwear players and cosmetics players in India. As on October 31, 2022, its aggregate installed capacity of 77,040 MTPA is spread across its three manufacturing facilities located at Jangalpur (West Bengal); Belur (West Bengal); and Naidupeta (Andhra Pradesh).

Rishabh Instrument files draft IPO papers with Sebi to raise funds

Nashik-based Rishabh Instruments Ltd has filed a draft red herring prospectus with the Securities Exchange Board of India to raise funds through initial public offerings. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 75 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to 9.42 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to 2.5 million shares by Asha Narendra Goliya, up to 4 lakh shares by Rishabh Narendra Goliya, up to 5.18 lakh shares by Narendra Rishabh Goliya (HUF) and up to 6 million shares by South Asia Clean Energy Fund (SACEF), a South Asia-focused small and medium enterprises (SME) fund managed by Global Environment Fund (GEF). Dam Capital Advisors Ltd, Mirae Asset Capital Markets India and Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors are the lead managers to the issue. The company is an integrated player involved in designing, developing, manufacturing and supplying electrical automation devices; metering, control and protection devices; portable test and measuring instruments; and solar string inverters. In addition, it manufactures and supplies aluminium high pressure die casting through its arm, Lumel Alucast . It has two manufacturing facilities in Nashik and has total installed capacity of 4.19 million units per annum as of March 2022. The proceeds from the issue worth Rs 59.50 crore will be used to expand its manufacturing facility to build and strengthen core capabilities and to build capacity for manufacturing of electrical automation products, metering, control and protection devices and solar string inverters. according to DRHP. For FY22, revenue from operations was at Rs 470.25 crore against Rs 389.96 crore a year ago. Net profit for the period was at Rs 49.65 crore verus Rs 35.94 crore last year.

Survival Technologies files draft papers with Sebi to raise Rs 1,000 crore

Speciality chemical manufacturer Survival Technologies has filed preliminary papers with markets regulator Sebi to mop-up Rs 1,000 crore through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating to up to Rs 200 crore, and an Offer For Sale (OFS) aggregating to up to Rs 800 crore by its promoters and promoter group shareholders, according to its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). The OFS will see the sale of shares to the tune of Rs 544.41 crore by Vijaykumar Raghunandanprasad Agrawal, Rs 212.41 crore by Nimai Vijay Agrawal and Rs 43.18 crore by Prabha Vijay Agarwal. Going by the draft papers, the company may explore a pre-IPO placement. If such a placement is undertaken, the size of the fresh issue will be reduced. Proceeds from the issue worth Rs 175 crore will be utilised towards funding the working capital requirements of the company and other general corporate purposes. The Mumbaibased firm is a Contract Research And Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) focused speciality chemical manufacturer in India. It is one of the few speciality chemical manufacturers in India manufacturing select products from the heterocyclic and fluoro organic product groups for sale in domestic and in international markets. For financial year ended March 2022, the company's profit after tax stood at Rs 73.46 crore, whereas its revenue from operations rose to Rs 311.78 crore in FY22, as compared to Rs 274.79 crore in the previous fiscal.

Sebi returns OYO's draft IPO papers; asks to refile with updates

Capital markets regulator Sebi has asked Oravel Stays Ltd, the parent company of travel-tech firm OYO, to refile the draft IPO papers with certain updates. The move might delay the Gurugram-based hospitality unicorn's initial public offering (IPO). OYO filed preliminary documents with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in September 2021 for a Rs 8,430 crore IPO. The proposed offering consists of a fresh issue of shares of up to Rs 7,000 crore and an offer-forsale of as much as Rs 1,430 crore. According to an update with Sebi's website on Tuesday, the markets regulator returned the company's draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) on December 30, 2022 and asked the firm to refile it with applicable updates/ revisions. However, the regulator has not elaborated on the updates or revisions required in the draft documents. Earlier, the company had filed an addendum to its DRHP which included its financials for the first half of FY23. It reported a profit of Rs 63 crore for the first half of FY23 as against a loss of Rs 280 crore a year ago.The company's revenues in the first half (April- September) of FY23 grew 24 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2,905 crore. Apart from improving operating performance, the company has a cash corpus of Rs 2,785 crore, the filing to Sebi showed.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Axis Mutual Fund launches CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL June 2028 Index Fund

Axis Mutual Fund has launched Axis CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL June 2028 Index Fund. It is an open-ended target maturity index fund investing in constituents of CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL Index – June 2028, with a relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk. The NFO will open on January 05 and close for subscription on January 16. According to the press release, the investment objective of the scheme is to provide investment returns corresponding to the total returns of the securities as represented by the CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL Index – June 2028 before expenses, subject to tracking errors. The scheme would be allocating 95% to 100% of its underlying securities in Debt Instruments comprising CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL Index – June 2028 (in the same weightage as in the Index) and the remaining in Debt and Money Market instruments (only treasury bills and government securities having a residual maturity up to one year). The scheme will follow a buy and hold investment strategy in which debt instruments by G-Sec & state government securities will be held till maturity unless sold for meeting redemptions/rebalancing. The current yield curve presents material opportunities to the investor with a medium to long term investment horizon. As a fund house that believes in ‘responsible investing’, we believe that the Axis CRISIL IBX 50:50 Gilt Plus SDL June 2028 Index Fund will be a notable add-on to the investor’s passive debt portfolio. As a passive fund, the product aims to replicate a designated index created by reputed index providers.

IDBI Bank signs pact to transfer mutual fund schemes to LIC MF

IDBI Bank said it has signed an agreement to transfer schemes of IDBI Mutual Fund to LIC Mutual Fund. "In terms of Regulation 30 of the SEBI (LODR) Regulations, 2015, we hereby advise that on December 29, 2022, a Scheme Transfer Agreement (STA) has been signed between IDBI Mutual Fund and LIC Mutual Fund for transfer of schemes of IDBI MF to LIC MF to comply with regulation 7B of Sebi mutual fund regulations," IDBI Bank said in an exchange filing. IDBI Bank, the parent of IDBI MF, is majority owned by LIC. Sebi rules bar a single promoter from owning more than 10% stake in two asset management companies (AMCs). Hence, there were either attempts to sell IDBI Mutual Fund or merge the assets with LIC Mutual Fund. According to reports, there were at least two attempts to sell IDBI Mutual Fund that could not be successful, and it resulted in the merger with a company owned by the same parent. LIC MF manages assets over Rs 18,000 crore, while IDBI MF has AUM of just over Rs 3,800 crore. While LIC has a larger presence in the debt and passive equity products space, IDBI MF is strong in the actively managed equity funds space. A few schemes in the equity space - large cap, large and midcap, tax saver and flexi cap - are common between the two. IDBI MF has focused, value, midcap, health care and small cap schemes, which are not present in the LIC portfolio.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 05/01/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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