In the week gone by, the drop in the dollar index and US bond yields following some dovish comments in US Fed minutes boosted sentiment across global markets. To note, minutes from the Fed's November rate-setting meeting showed that a "substantial majority" of policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of rate hikes. European stock markets are looking for fresh cues from the European Central Bank. On the flip side, China stock markets looked worried as concerns over record-high domestic daily COVID-19 cases overshadowed optimism from fresh economic stimulus. The Covid spread in China is likely to impact Chinese growth and, therefore, further weakness in crude and metals is likely. Central bank of China recently resorted to cut in Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 25 bps as it want to keep liquidity ample and strengthen implementation of prudent monetary policy. On the growth front, shocked by high interest rates, swelling inflation and Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is expected that the global economy will continue to remain under pressure for another few quarters. In the OECD's estimation, the world economy will grow just 3.1% this year, down sharply from a robust 5.9% in 2021. Now, it is expected that the focus of the investors would shift to the US CPI data announcement on December 13 and the Fed’s FOMC meeting on December 13-14.
Back at home, domestic markets made a new record high led by latest Fed minutes which indicated that rate hike cycle may slow down. Besides, macro developments in India show steady rise in credit growth and capex indicating strong economic recovery. Also the decline in dollar index and crude prices aided the upward momentum in the market. To sum up, domestic markets rallied on the back of strong corporate earnings, easing supply constraints, cooling commodity prices and strong demand across various sectors. And the fact that the central bank and government took gradual, cautious and targeted interventions during the pandemic has paved way for consistency in the macro variables. Investors should use any significant dip as a strong opportunity to buy in the domestic markets.
On the commodity front, CRB stuck in a tight range. Dollar index hit multi months low after the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled a slowdown in future rate hikes. Fall in dollar index will keep the downside limited in commodities however upside is too restricted as economic data’s are giving negative indications. Crude oil can move in a range of 6000-6700. Gold and silver will see buying on dip and they can move in a band of 50000-54000 and 60000-65000 respectively. In agri, guar may attract buying from the lower levels. GDP Growth Rate of Switzerland, Canada, Germany, India, US, Brazil and Italy, CB Consumer Confidence, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate of US, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, Inflation Rate of France, Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate of Germany, Inflation Rate of Italy etc are any more important data scheduled this week which will give indication about the world major economies.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has strong balance sheet with zero net debt. The company is rapidly gaining market share in both in unorganized players and organized players along with expansion into li-ion space indicating future growth visibility. Sequentially the margin has improved due to price increase and management expects the margins to improve as raw material price stabilizes in three to six months. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 211 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BVx of 1.6x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.131.60.
The Company is witnessing gradual improvement in market sentiments with inquiry and order finalization taking place on a project progress basis. Moreover, it has a diverse industrial client base and is not dependent on any particular industry segment or region to book orders. With the economic expansion, a rise in Government and private CAPEX specially CAPEX for road, renewables, and production-linked incentive schemes, the Government is continuously taking measures to ramp up power generation from green sources (like solar, and wind) to meet the medium to long-term power demand, the medium term prospects look promising for the Company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.3198 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/E of 18.94x and FY24 (E) earnings of Rs.168.88.
The stock closed at Rs 150.05 on 25th November, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 74.15 on 20th June, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 205.40 on 13th December, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 128.34
As we can see on chart that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, stock is forming an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart, and has given the neckline breakout of pattern along with high volumes, so further upside is anticipated from the stock in near term. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 146-148 levels for the upside target of 175-180 levels with SL below 133 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 1432.40 on 25th November, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 970.60 on 20th December, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1566.00 on 01st November, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1274.53
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart which are bullish in nature. Apart from this, it is forming a bull flag pattern on weekly chart and has taken support from the lows along with high volumes and also has managed to close above the previous weeks high. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1410-1415 levels for the upside target of 1550- 1580 levels with SL below 1350 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets surged sharply higher in the week gone by as bulls slammed the bears on Dalal street as Bank Nifty and Sensex both the indices marked all time highs. Nifty scaled towards 18500 levels while Bank nifty close the week with gains of more than 1.25%. From derivative front put writers seen adding hefty open interest at 18300 strike while call writers seen shifting at higher bands. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.64% while that for put options closed at 12.39%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 13.48%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.38 lower than the previous week. Technically Nifty has given a fresh breakout above 18450 mark and can be seen trading in a rising channel. Additionally Nifty futures is also currently trading with a premium of more than 100 points on local bourses which clearly points towards strength in current trend. For the upcoming week, we keep our stance Bullish for Nifty and advice traders to use any dip to create fresh longs. On the downside, 18350-18300 zone would act as strong support for Nifty while 42500-42400 zone is likely to provide support to the banking index.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices traded mixed to down last week following reports of normal growth of crop. Subdued buying by spice making companies weighed on the market sentiments. Spice makers are avoiding buying as most of the spice millers has covered their near term demand on lower prices. About 9 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived across India in Nov’22 wherein 10 thousand tonnes touched the market last year in Nov’21. Major focus of market has shifted on crop progress of Turmeric that is looking satisfactory due to favorable weather condition. However, overall production is estimated to be down due to lower acreages amid concerns over yield losses. Export enquires are good at prevailing levels that will support gains in prices. Turmeric export surged up by 5% Y-o-Y in Aug’22 and increased by 15% Y-o-Y so far in year 2022. Turmeric NCDEX Dec Prices are likely to hold the support of 7000 and will honor the resistance of 7600
Jeera NCDEX Dec futures slipped further on profit booking at higher levels. Weakness in Jeera is likely to remain continue due to subdued buying in local market. Reports of normal crop progress will also weigh on market sentiments as tumbling temperature in northern and central states has facilitated the crop growth of Jeera. Jeera crop is at seedling stage in most of the districts in Rajasthan and Gujarat and lower temperature is always helpful for crop at this stage. Supplies are likely to remain poor due to offseason that will cap the downfall in prices. Stockiest are still optimistic for larger gains in prices and going for hoarding. Total arrivals of jeera were reported at 11 thousand tonnes so far in Nov’22 compared to 25.8 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Jeera Dec prices are likely to hold the support of 23000 with resistance of 24500.
Dhaniya NCDEX Dec Prices are expected to trade sideways may keep bias on negative side. Prices are likely to track the cues of ongoing sowing progress across India. Sowing progress has been normal as weather condition has been conducive. Overall acreages are expected to improve due to better price realization to farmers. Supplies are adequate at major trading centers due to rising imports that is keeping buyers aways from bulk buying. Dhaniya prices are still ruling above to the normal prices of dhaniya that will keep marginal players away from heavy buying unless prices show its normal behavior. Dhaniya NCDEX Dec Prices are likely to trade in range of 9600-10400
Gold prices were bound for a weekly dip following indications from U.S. Federal Reserve officials that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. Gold has shed 15% since its March peak after the Fed began tightening monetary policy, it has gained about 8% since the beginning of November as markets started pricing in a slower pace of rate hikes. Markets currently see an 87% chance of a 50-basis point hike at the Fed’s December meeting. Gold could, therefore, remain volatile until there’s clear direction from the Fed. Although bullion is considered an inflation hedge, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding. Institutional investors are wary and further gains for gold could be elusive. On the physical front, Chinese premiums fell sharply as buying slowed in the top consumer. However, the U.S. currency was still headed for its best week in a month, as hawkish remarks from Fed officials and strong retail sales put the brakes on a pullback triggered by signs of softening inflation. Gold continues to be supported by rising recession risks, the stillevolving Ukraine war and the dollar peaking. On the technical front gold on COMEX is facing resistance near $1790 as long as prices sustain below the levels it remains sell on rise market for gold and the short term support for counter is seen near $1710. On the other hand, Silver prices on comex are facing resistance near $22.700 and could possibly take support near $19.800. Ahead in the week MCX gold prices may continue to witness huge volatility and could trade in the range of 50500-53200. Silver may also witness huge volatility and the possible trading range would be 58000-64000.
Oil prices fell more than 3%, continuing a streak of volatile trading, as the Group of Seven (G7) nations considered a price cap on Russian oil above the current market level and as gasoline inventories in the United States built by more than analysts' expected. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels far exceeding the 383,000 barrel build that had forecast. Prices were hit further by reports that the G7 price cap on Russian oil could be above the level it is trading. G7 nations are looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the range of $65- 70/bbl, according to a European official. Meanwhile, Urals crude delivered to northwest Europe is trading around $62-$63/bbl, although it is higher in the Mediterranean at around $67-$68/bbl, Refinitiv data shows. Because production costs are estimated at around $20 per barrel, the cap would still make it profitable for Russia to sell its oil and in this way prevent a supply shortage on the global market. Further pressure came from an OECD economic outlook anticipating a deceleration in global economic expansion next year. Ahead in the week, crude oil prices may continue to witness huge volatility where it may take support near 6100 and face resistance near 6800. Natural gas futures are trading near three-month high as worries of a possible rail strike offset forecasts calling for a drop in heating demand amid forecasts predicting milder than normal temperatures. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade higher buying on dips advised. Prices may take support near 520 and could face resistance near 630.
Base metals may trade sideways with a bullish bias supported by a weaker dollar. The dollar stood close to a three-month low, as the prospect of the Federal Reserve slowing U.S. interest rate increases as soon as December dominated investors' minds and kept the mood buoyant while continued COVID-19 outbreaks in China may pressurize the counter. Copper may trade in the range of 660-695. Due to copper reserves having reached alarmingly low levels in the last few months, copper prices may climb even higher in the coming few days, as copper is needed extensively in a number of industries. Miner Freeport-McMoRan has agreed TC/RCs of $88 a tonne and 8.8 cents per pound for copper concentrate supply in 2023 with Chinese smelters. These charges are the highest since 2017 and 35% higher than the 2022 benchmark, due to an expected oversupply of copper concentrate. Zinc can trade in the range of 250-280. Lead can move in the range of 177-189. Aluminum may trade in the range of 197-215 with a bearish bias due to weaker-than-expected growth and demand led by the slowdown in China, an emerging recession in the Eurozone, and evidence of market oversupply based on stock data. Demand for aluminium used in the transportation, construction and packaging sectors however has remained weak due to China's strict COVID curbs. Global primary aluminium output in October rose 3.1% year on year to 5.85 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed. Steel long (Dec) is likely to trade lower to 41900 on NCDEX. Global prices have witnessed a meltdown as the world’s biggest consumer, China, struggles with its battle against COVID-19.
Cotton MCX Dec prices are expected to trade higher due to below normal supplies at physical market. Farmers are reluctant to release their produce in expectation of further rise in prices. Cotton arrivals in November usually surpass 1.5 lakh bales a day. At present, it is at 1.15 lakh to 1.3 lakh bales per day. Arrivals have been down mainly due to delayed harvesting. Demand of cotton yarn remained lower amidst economic slowdown that sparked fear of recession across the globe hitting demand for textiles. Cotton export is likely to drop to 30 lakh bales in year 2022-23 compared to 43 lakh bales of previous year as per Cotton Association of India. Cotton Association of India has reduced its demand estimates at 300.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs for year 2022-23 compared to 318 lakh bales of previous year. Prices are likely to trade in range of 30000- 33000 in coming week
Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX (Dec) futures are likely to trade higher due to emerging buying in domestic market. Stockiest are active in wake of lower production of cotton seed oil cake as pace of cotton arrivals has been slower. Firmness in prices of relative oil meals and increased demand at local market is likely to support firmness in prices. Prices are likely to hold the support of 2600 and will move towards 3100 in coming week.
Guar seed Dec futures are likely to trade sideways may extend its profit booking at higher levels. After touching the high of 6390 in Nov’22 Guar seed prices are correcting down mainly due to profit booking. Arrivals are expected to peak up in fear of further fall in prices as farmers are getting good return on their produce. Rajasthan Government has estimated Guar seed production for year 2022-23 at 14 lakh tonnes that is much higher to the industry estimates of 7-8 lakh tonnes. Guar seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5700-6200
Mentha oil (Dec) is likely to trade mixed to higher in next week. Prices recovery is expected in Mentha as prices are ruling near to the support of 940. Lower production of Mentha and emerging lower buying is likely to cap the downfall in prices. Prices are likely to hold support of 940 and will move gradually towards 1010 in near term
Castor seed (Dec) prices are likely to keep its bullish momentum intact due to supply tightness in physical market. Lower production estimates and tighter pipeline stocks will prompt market participants to enlarge long positions in castor seed. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to hold the support of 7200 and will face the resistance of 7700 in near term
It closed at Rs. 53145.00 on 24th Nov 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 52492.03. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.196. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs. 53100 for a target of Rs. 51800 with the stop loss of 53700.
It closed at Rs. 184.15 on 24th Nov 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 182.62. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.306. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs. 186 for a target of Rs. 176 with the stop loss of 191.
It closed at Rs. 23960.00 on 24th Nov 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 24438.18. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34.267. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs. 23650 for a target of Rs. 22600 with the stop loss of 24150.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
CRB stuck in a tight range. Dollar index hit multi months low after the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled a slowdown in future rate hikes. The Fed raised its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point earlier this month, for the fourth straight time in an effort to tame soaring inflation, but the minutes largely cemented expectations for a 50-basis-point hike in early December. Gold prices, benefiting from a weaker dollar as the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed that a growing number of members supported a slower pace of interest rate hikes. Silver too saw bounce back in the buying. Gains in industrial metals were relatively subdued, as the space grapples with slowing demand in major importer China. Weakness in the dollar supported prices of the red metal, concerns over China’s worst COVID-19 outbreak yet sapped broader appetite for copper. The country introduced new restrictions in several major cities this month, as it faces a record-high rise in daily infections. Later on in the week base metals saw decline in the prices. In energy counter, crude prices cooled off whereas natural gas gained as European Commission proposed an emergency brake on prices as Russia threatened to further cut flows sent through Ukraine. Oil prices hovered near two-month lows on Thursday after easing concerns over Russian supply and a worsening economic outlook drove sharp losses this week, although weakness in the dollar on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve helped reduce some selling pressure. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by more than expected last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Crude inventories dropped by 3.691 million barrels, against expectations for a draw of 1.055M barrels. U.S. crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 1.6 million barrels in the latest week to 390.5 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1984, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.
In agri, guar attracted the most with its wild swings in both side. Guar seed surpassed 6000 levels after months whereas gum breached 13000. Later on they saw sharp profit booking from higher side amid reports of higher production in Rajasthan. Rajasthan Government has estimated Guar seed production for year 2022-23 at 14 lakh tonnes that is much higher to the industry estimates of 7-8 lakh tonnes. After three weeks of super rally, castor rally cooled off on muted domestic demand. It was a bearish week for spics counter on sluggish buying in spices industry dhaniya prices were down. Ongoing sowing activities will drive the market further as reports of normal sowing. Weather condition is favorable to the planting activities in major growing states that will pull down the prices in near term.
The idea of the oil price cap, the biggest energy weapon against Russia, was first floated by Italian PM Mario Draghi earlier this year with regard to all oil producers. The idea was later taken up by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in discussions with the European Union on how to punish Moscow. Now, it’s been taken up by the G7.
Nowadays, the EU and G-7 both are grappling with a strange dissonance as talks to set a cap on the price of Russian oil long in the works by the United States and pro- Ukraine allies faced a setback on November 23, 2022, as a meeting of senior European Union diplomats over the exact price and other details ended without agreement.
The European Union embargo on Russian oil will kicks in on Dec. 5.
The prices cap of $65 and $70 is not problematic for Russia
The EU and G-7 are discussing capping the price of Russian crude oil at between $65 and $70 a barrel but several EU diplomats said the proposed level was too high. The range is in line with the historical average from before the invasion.
This price range, which is being driven by the G-7, has two aims: keeping Russian oil flowing in order to avoid global price spikes, while at the same time limiting Moscow’s revenues.
The $65-$70 range is well above Russia’s cost of production and higher than some countries had been pushing for. As Russia is already selling its crude at discounts, a high cap may have minimal impact on trading. The price of Russian oil benchmark, known as the Urals blend, traded between $60 and $70 per barrel in the year before the pandemic. It rose as high as $100 per barrel shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, but over the past three months has settled between $65 and $75 per barrel, a similar level that will be set by G-7, and it wouldn’t do much harm to Russia.
Another proposal related to price cap
The price cap would ban companies from providing shipping and services, such as insurance, brokering and financial assistance, needed to transport Russian oil anywhere in the world unless the oil is sold below the agreed threshold.
The latest proposal eases several elements of the cap that were laid out in the bloc’s most recent sanctions package, including ones that could have placed indefinite restrictions on ships that carried Russian oil above the price cap. Penalties on those ships would now be limited to a 90-day period and apply only to Russian oil.
The EU has also proposed adding a number of grace periods to its latest version of the cap legislation and has significantly narrowed the penalties on shipping provisions.
The agreement is still far fetched
Some E.U. diplomats, especially those from Poland and other staunch Ukraine allies, said that the price range proposed by the G7 was too high and that the cap should be set much lower in order to hurt Russian revenues.
Greece, Cyprus and Malta, which have serious stakes in the policy because of their large maritime industries, asked for an even higher cap and some even sought compensation for possible loss of income for their maritime businesses.
Oil will remain a volatile commodity amid all geopolitical tensions and slowdown in China. Recession talk is keeping it now in lower trajectory but buying may return after a marginal fall.
The dollar is on track to end the week lower, weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve would tighten less aggressively in the upcoming meetings. The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that a substantial majority of policymakers agreed it would likely soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Earlier this month, the Fed delivered its fourth straight 75 basis point rate increase in an effort to tame stubbornly high inflation, pushing borrowing costs to the highest levels since 2008. The central bank now wants to assess the impact of its historic tightening campaign on the economy, with recent softness in US economic data supporting the case for more moderate moves. The dollar is set for a weekly loss against other major currencies but remains up week-to-date against the Chinese yuan amid a worsening Covid outbreak in China. In the previous week dollar rupee was consolidated in the range of 81.60 to 81.90 spot levels however just below the weekend it managed to break below the same first in the week which is indicating some weakness likely to persist in the coming sessions. The USDINR has also given a breakdown from the major short-term 21- period daily Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) indicating some weakness for the now. For the coming week dollar rupee has the next support placed around 81.28 levels and if manages to break below the same may head lower below 81 marks while on the higher side resistance is seen around 82.00 levels with sideways to negative bias.
USDINR (NOV)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 80.80 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.10 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 81.84 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.24.
One can sell at 81.80 for the target of 80.80 with the stop loss of 82.30.
GBPINR (NOV)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 96.70 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 99.25 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 95.95. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 69.22.
One can buy at 98.50 for the target of 99.50 with the stop loss of 98.00.
EURINR (NOV) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 84.07 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 85.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 83.37. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.32.
One can buy at 84.60 for the target of 85.60 with the stop loss of 84.10.
JPYINR (NOV) is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 57.60 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 59.20 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 57.55. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.50.
One can sell at 59.20 for the target of 58.20 with the stop loss of 59.70.
(2/5)
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The net proceeds of the Fresh Issue are proposed to be utilised in the following manner:
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper end of the price band of Rs. 237, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 20.39x on its FY22 EPS of Rs. 11.62. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 27.92x on its EPS of Rs. 8.49. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs. 237 the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 6.89x on the pre issue book value of Rs.34.40 and on the post issue book value of Rs. 88.81 the P/B comes out to 2.67x.
On the lower end of the price band of Rs.216 the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 18.58x on its FY22 EPS of Rs. 11.62.Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 25.45x on its EPS of Rs. 8.49. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.216, the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 6.28x on the pre issue book value of Rs. 34.40 and on the post issue book value of Rs. 88.81, the P/B comes out to 2.43x.
Dharmaj Crop Guard is engaged in the business of manufacturing, distributing, and marketing of a wide range of agro chemical formulations such as insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, plant growth regulator, micro fertilizers and antibiotic to the B2C and B2B customers. It is also engage in the marketing and distribution of agrochemical products under brands in-licensed by, owned by and through generic brands, to Indian farmers through Its distribution network. It provides crop protection solutions to the farmer to assist them to maximize productivity and profitability. The company export it products to more than 25 countries in Latin America, East African Countries, Middle East and Far East Asia. It sells its agrochemical products in granules, powder and liquid forms. Additionally, it manufactures and sells general insect and pest control chemicals for Public Health and Animal Health protection.
Diversified products portfolio and consistent focus on quality and innovation: The company has developed a niche portfolio of agro-chemical products. It has diversified its product portfolio since incorporation and has grown into a multi-product manufacturer of agrochemical products such as insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, plant growth regulator, micro fertilizers and antibiotic.
Strong R&D capabilities with focus on innovation and sustainability: The company has a research and development (“R&D”) centres at its manufacturing facility. The company has been able to diversify its products range mainly due to its technological capabilities. The strong R&D capabilities allow to discover new mixtures and register new formulations for its agrochemical business. New research areas are guided by the advancement of new technologies based on customer need, technology and regulatory requirements.
Established distribution network with strong branded products and stable relationship with institutional customers: The company`s ability to deliver sufficient quantities of agro chemical products to farmers with short lead-time is critical, particularly given the seasonal nature of cropping. It has pan-India sales and dealer presence in 17 states with a dedicated sales force that provides customer service and undertakes product promotion. As of September 30, 2022, its network comprised over 4,362 dealers having access to 16 stock depots supporting the distribution of the branded products in 17 states of India.
Experienced Promoters and management team: The Promoters and management team have significant experience in the agrochemical industry.
Enhance manufacturing capabilities through backward integration and expand product portfolio:As a part of the expansion plans and to achieve backward integration for its operations, the company has acquired around 33,489.73 sq. mtrs of land at Saykha Industrial Estate, Bharuch, Gujarat, India on leasehold basis for 99 years from GIDC to set up a manufacturing facility for Agrochemical Technicals and its intermediates which will be used for internal consumption as well as for sales in domestic and international market, which will give more competitive strength
Targeting new customers, expanding existing customer business and increase its market share in domestic and international markets: offer a wider range of products in new markets. It intends to leverage existing relationships in the international markets where it is already present for new products and develop new relationships in the new markets on the strength of the quality and diversified range of products.
Expanding Public Health and Animal Health product segment: The company intends to increase manufacturing and sales in the public health and animal health products segment. On the public health and animal health side, its products include general insect control, termiticide, larvicide, indoor residual spray, rodenticide and cockroach gels which are formulations of synthetic pyrethroids which are currently procured from third parties.
The company is operating with an installed capacity of 25,500 MT of agro-chemical formulations which the company plans to increase further through backward integration and is setting up a manufacturing facility for Agrochemical Technicals and its intermediates which will be used for internal consumption as well as for sales in domestic and international market. The company has wide range of product portfolio catering to both domestic and international market and serving to both retail and institutional customers. It has strong distribution network, with 4,362 dealers supported by 16 stock depots as on September 30, 2022.
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Union AMC announced the launch of Union Multicap Fund, an open-ended equity scheme, that will aim to benefit from higher growth potential offered by mid and small caps, coupled with lesser volatility via large caps. New Fund Offer (NFO) will open on November 28 and will close for subscriptions on December 12. Union Multicap Fund aims to follow a mix of top-down and bottom-up approach to identify opportunities in large, mid and small cap space. The Scheme will be benchmarked against NIFTY 500 Multicap 50:25:25 TRI. The stock selection will be based on the “Fair Value” approach. Mr. Sanjay Bembalkar, Fund Manager, Equity, Union AMC said, “Union Multicap Fund would provide investors a disciplined way to participate in India’s growth story through presence across market capitalization. The stock selection approach would consider our process framework of looking at good companies managed by good management through the lens of a fair value approach while the portfolio construction approach would be quantamental (fundamental + quantitative) in nature.”
Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund has launched the Mahindra Manulife Small Cap Fund, an open-ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks. The scheme will invest a minimum of 65% of net assets in equity and equity related instruments of small cap companies. It may take exposure in equity derivative instruments to the extent of 50% of the equity permitted component. The fund will be managed by Abhinav Khandelwal and Manish Lodha. According to the fund house, the scheme is suitable for investors seeking long term capital appreciation and Investment predominantly in equity and equity related securities of small cap companies. Small cap mutual funds have potential to create wealth and generate alpha over the long term, as they provide exposure to companies which are potential market leaders in the industries they operate in and are likely to become future midcaps as they scale up.
An unwavering retail inflow complemented by capital appreciation continues to benefit the funds linked to the systematic investment plans (SIP). The assets under management (AUM) of SIP funds reached a record Rs 6.6 lakh crore in October 2022 according to the data from Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). The cumulative twelve-month rolling SIP inflow was also at a new high of Rs 1.4 lakh crore with average monthly inflow above Rs 13,000 crore. Industry estimates show that nearly 90% of the SIP monthly inflows are deployed in the equity funds. The average SIP ticket size was Rs 2,198 in October 2022. The share of SIP AUM in the total mutual fund AUM touched 16.8% in October, the highest since AMFI started reporting the data on its website, compared with the long-term average proportion of 11.4%.The AUM of the SIP linked funds grew by 28.8% annually in the past five years, faster than the 13% growth in the industry AUM at Rs 39.1 lakh crore in the same period. During the period, SIP linked funds received an inflow of Rs 5.3 lakh crore.
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