Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21-22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global markets continued to remain cautious as investors remained Icautious over the on-going US debt ceiling discussions that seem to have very little progress so far. Both China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. Together they own $2 trillion — more than a quarter — of the $7.6 trillion in US Treasury securities held by foreign countries. Recently Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has expressed concerns that a US debt default would cause turmoil in various markets and have serious consequences for the global economy. Investors are, therefore, keeping a close eye on news from the U.S. on progress of negotiations. According to minutes of the May 2-3 meeting released on Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials "generally agreed" last month that the need for further interest rate increases "had become less certain," with several saying that the quarter-percentage-point increase they approved might be the last. Meanwhile, China’s stock market erased all its gains for the year as a weaker yuan and developers’ debt woes added to persistent worries over growth and geopolitics. Japan’s fundamentals have improved significantly with the return of inflation and corporate governance reforms, which are fuelling a fast turnaround.

Back at home, positive commentary from US Fed, consistent FII buying and healthy results from Index heavyweights supported the sentiments. Indian markets awaiting the GDP data for the March quarter on 31 May. India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to have grown by 5.1 percent in the final quarter of 2022-23, up from 4.4 percent in the previous quarter. India has reconfirmed its expectation of a normal monsoon this year, alleviating concerns regarding weather-related impacts on inflation. Going forward, Investors will continue to take cues from global as well as domestic events. Investors will eye data on eight core, fiscal deficit, GST numbers, monthly auto and PMI services and manufacturing data due next week. Among all, next week US debt ceiling negotiations deadline on June 1st will be also key to watch.

On the commodity market front, CRB closed in range on mixed triggers. Traders’ focus remained chiefly on negotiations among lawmakers over raising the U.S. spending limit. Base metals experienced a nosedive due to weak data and concerns surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling. Fitch's warning of a potential U.S. ratings downgrade in the event of a default added further apprehension. Copper prices fell amid worries about slowing economic growth, while zinc prices hit their lowest point since July 2020 due to weak demand and rising inventories. In the agricultural sector, turmeric futures traded higher due to a scarcity of premium quality produce, while jeera witnessed a sharp fall amidst increased imports at cheaper rates. Castor oil prices remained range-bound due to higher production and limited export demand, while mentha saw some short-covering recently. The current state of commodity markets reflects the intricate interplay of global factors and market sentiment. The on-going negotiations over the U.S. spending limit and the potential consequences of a default continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty. The impact of geopolitical events and supply-demand dynamics should not be overlooked. The coming weeks will likely be pivotal in determining the trajectory of commodity markets, as investors assess risks and opportunities amid a complex global landscape.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said that while retail inflation had moderated in recent months, there was a continued need for vigilance as weather-related uncertainties posed headwinds. Das also said India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the financial year 2022-23 (FY23) could be higher than the official forecast of 7 per cent.
Information Technology
  • Infosys has announced its collaboration with Adobe to transform the digital workforce through Infosys’ online learning platform, Infosys Springboard, under its Tech for Good charter. Both organizations will aim to create over 10,000 new Adobe certified experts globally by 2025.
  • Wipro has announced a partnership between its Engineering Edge business line and Spartan Radar, an automated mobility sensor software provider, to build advanced vehicle solutions. Wipro’s corporate investment subsidiary Wipro Ventures has invested in Spartan Radar’s Series B funding round.
  • Wipro has expanded its partnership with Google Cloud to bring advanced generative artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to clients across the globe. It will integrate generative AI into its entire suite of capabilities, accelerators, IP, and solutions.
FMCG
  • Reliance Consumer Products, the FMCG arm and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Retail Ventures (a subsidiary of Reliance Industries) has completed the acquisition of 51% controlling stake in LOTUS for Rs 74 crore, and subscribed to non-cumulative redeemable preference shares of LOTUS for Rs 25 crore.
  • Varun Beverages has incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary company - Varun Beverages South Africa (Pty) Ltd in Johannesburg, South Africa, to explore the business of manufacturing and distribution of beverages.
Telecom
  • Astra Microwave Products, Astra Rafael Comsys, the joint venture company, has bagged Rs 158 crore worth of order from defence public sector undertaking (DPSU) for supply of software defined radio (SDR).
Power
  • Adani Wind Energy Kutchh Five (AWEK5L, formerly known as Adani Green Energy Five Limited), a subsidiary of Adani Green Energy (AGEL) has commissioned 130 MW Wind Power Plant at Kutchh in Gujarat. The plant has a 25 year Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) of 130 MW with Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) at Rs. 2.83/kWh.
Capital Goods
  • Praj Industries has received board approval for forming of a 50:50 joint venture with Indian Oil Corporation to set up biofuel production facilities and marketing of CBG, ethanol, SAF & other co-products.
Consumer Durables
  • Voltas has laid the groundwork at Thiruvallur district in Tamil Nadu, for its new air conditioner factory. The construction of the new manufacturing facility is spread over 150 acres. The company has planned to invest over Rs 500 crore in this factory, for RAC (room air conditioners) manufacturing, over the next couple of years.
Ship Building
  • Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers has entered into a contract with Indian Navy for supply of 10 in number 30 mm Naval Surface Gun (NSG) with electro optical fire control system (EOFCS) and ammunition at a cost of Rs 248.51 crore.

PIVOT SHEET

MACRO ECONOMIC METER

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • Economic growth in the U.S. slowed less than previously estimated in the first three month of 2023. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product climbed by 1.3 percent in the first quarter compared to the previously estimated 1.1 percent increase. Economists had expected the pace of GDP growth to be unrevised.
  • US initial jobless claims crept up to 229,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised level of 225,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 245,000 from the 242,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US existing home sales plunged by 3.4 percent to an annual rate of 4.28 million in April after tumbling by 2.6 percent to a revised rate of 4.43 million in March. The extended pullback surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 2.4 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.
  • UK retail sales recovered in April driven by food and non-food turnover. The retail sales volume increased 0.5 percent month-on-month, in contrast to the 1.2 percent fall in March. Sales were forecast to grow more moderately by 0.3 percent.
  • Producer prices in Japan were up 1.6 percent on year in April. That exceeded expectations for an increase of 1.4 percent following the upwardly revised 1.7 percent gain in March (originally 1.6 percent).k
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

NTPC LIMITED
CMP: 174.40
Target Price: 220
Upside: 26%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 182.80/135.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 169158.34
  • EPS (Rs.) 17.73
  • P/E Ratio (times) 9.84
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.22
  • Dividend Yield (%) 4.16
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • NTPC has presence in the entire value chain of the power generation business. From fossil fuels, it has forayed into generating electricity via hydro, nuclear and renewable energy sources. To strengthen its core business, the corporation has diversified into the fields of consultancy, power trading, training of power professionals, rural electrification, ash utilisation and coal mining as well. As on 31 March 2023, the commercial capacity of NTPC stands at 56368 MW on standalone basis and 72254 MW for the Group.
  • On the development front, it has set an ambitious goal of reaching half its installed capacity through RE by 2032. NTPC plans to add 60,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by FY32, of which it has 3,154 MW operational, another 4,718 MW under construction and the rest under planning and feasibility. It also has 10,620 MW thermal projects and 2,255 MW of hydro projects under construction.
  • Further, it has already commissioned 2524 MW of RE projects under EPC mode till the end of second quarter. Further Bids for 650 MW have been won, which will be awarded soon. It is developing Solar Park of 4.75 GW in Gujarat. Further, plans for development of another 21 GW UMREPP is in various stages.
  • The Capex for FY24 (standalone) remains same at Rs.22,454 crore and group target is Rs.28,373 crore and the company is confident of achieving these targets. Going forward FY 25, NTPC standalone is Rs.24,701 crore; for FY26, it is Rs.31,142 crore and for FY27, it is Rs.34,096 crore.
  • NTPC Group generated 399 Billion Units in FY23 as compared to 361 Billion Units in FY22, an increase of ~11%. The standalone gross generation in FY23 was 344 Billion Units again an increase of ~11% over previous year gross generation of 310 Billion Units.

Risk

  • Non-availability of Gas
  • Coal Shortage

Valuation

The company is increasing its green energy capacity and it augers well for the company. It has a strong commitment towards Renewable Energy and has diversified into producing energy through cleaner and greener sources such as hydro, wind and solar. The Company has also forayed into a variety of business areas including fuel cells, e-mobility, green hydrogen solutions and waste-to-energy. The company is well planned to benefit the rising power demand in the company with huge installed capacity already in place and plans to add additional capacity mostly in green energy space indicate future growth visibility of the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.220 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/Bv of 1.4x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.157.43.

P/B Chart

K.P.R. MILL LIMITED
CMP: 574.60
Target Price: 658
Upside: 14%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 640.00/479.55
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 19640.63
  • EPS (Rs.) 23.82
  • P/E Ratio (times) 24.12
  • P/B Ratio (times) 5.30
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.03
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • K.P.R. Mill Limited is one of the leading vertically integrated apparel manufacturing Companies having 12 hitech manufacturing facilities. It has 6 State of the Art Spinning Mills with a capacity to produce 1,00,000 MT of yarn and 4,000 MT of Vortex Viscose yarn, 4 State of the Art Garment facilities Capacity to produce 157 Million knitted Garments, 2 State of the Art fabric processing facilities Capacity to process 25,000 MT of fabrics and State of the Art fabric printing facility Capacity to print 15,000 MT of fabrics. It also has 20,000 TCD sugar capacity and 360 KLPD Ethanol Capacity in Karnataka.
  • It has implemented modernization and expansion plan at a total an outlay of about Rs.500 crores. The setting of vortex spinning mill at an outlay of Rs.100 crores is expected to get completed during the current financial year. On ethanol capacity expansion front, it is incurring Rs.150 crores and is expected to be operational by October 2023. The company incurred Rs. 100 crore on quality improvement, Rs. 50 Crore for rooftop solar power plant and Rs. 50 Crore on expansion of processing and printing division which is expected to get completed by first half of FY2024. All together the capex would add 250 crore of revenue per annum.
  • During the quarter ended March 2023, the revenue of the company grew by 36.2% QoQ to Rs. 1949.66 crore. The EBITDA grew by 16.6% to Rs. 328.67 crore and PAT was up by 20% to Rs. 209.55 crore.
  • The order book position for garments is round Rs. 1000 crore. The company is focusing on value addition in this segment. It has introduced some of the printing technologies in the garment divisions and embroidery and other whole body printing.
  • In FY2023, garments production up by 7.35% YoY to 133.23 mn garments from 124.11 mn garments. The garment sales volume of improved from 121.56mn garment last year to 128.14mn garment. According to the management the same is expected to improve to 147mn in Fy2024.

Risk

  • High input cost
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

The company has integrated nature of operations with diversified product profile. It has a strong track record of growth and profitability. The recent capacity addition and value addition in the garment business auger well for the company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.658 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on three year average P/BV of 5.05x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.130.24.

P/BV Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED (HEROMOTOCO)

The stock closed at Rs 2745 on 26th May, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs. 2246 on 28th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.2938.60 on18th August, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2604.

On broader charts stock has formed a “Double Bottom” pattern around 2200 levels and bounce sharply thereon to reclaim 2700 levels once again. Last week stock has managed to surpass above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts as prices can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern on daily and weekly interval. Technically, stock is on a verge of fresh breakout above the “W” pattern, which is clearly visible on weekly charts. Alongside, positive divergences on secondary oscillators suggest for next upswing into the prices as bullish momentum is expected to carry in upcoming sessions as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2700-2750 levels for the upside target of 3100-3150 levels with SL below 2450 levels.

HCL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED (HCLTECH)

The stock closed at Rs 1138 on 26th May, 2023. It made a 52- week low at Rs 877.35 on 15th July, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.1156.65 on 03rd February, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1069.

Since the beginning of the year, stock has been trading under pressure as prices can be seen fluctuating with formation of lower high and lower bottom pattern on weekly interval. Last week stock has managed to regain its bullish momentum and has managed to give fresh breakout above the falling trend line of declining channel. The rise in price was observed along with marginal rise in volume as well which suggests a long build up into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1120-1140 levels for the upside target of 1275-1300 levels with SL below 1020 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Some fireworks had been witnessed in Indian markets in the week gone by, as June series began on a positive note with bulls making a strong comeback last week as Nifty tested 18500 mark while Banking Index closed above the key psychological level of 44000 mark. The sudden up move in Indian markets got supported by gains in heavyweights like RIL, TCS, ICICI Bank & HUL. From the derivative front, put writers added hefty open interest at 18400 & 18300 strike while call writers were seen shifting at higher bands. Currently, Nifty rollovers were seen marginally higher as compared to the previous month. In the previous month, the rollover were seen 64.11% while this month, the rollover is higher than the previous month i,e. 70.61% which points towards a directional moves in June expiry. In Banknifty, the rollovers were seen somewhere almost same as compared to the last expiry. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 10.28% while that for put option, it closed at 11.52%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.52%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.48. Technically, both the indices can be seen trading higher and likely to continue their bullish moves in upcoming week as well. For Nifty 18650-18700 zone, it would act as immediate strong hurdle while 18300- 18200 zone would provide support in case of any downside. Traders are advised to use any dip for creating fresh longs and keep focus on sectors like IT, FMCG & Reality.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

Note: All equity derivative data as on 25th May, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric June futures are likely to trade on positive bias on supply concerns. Supplies are below normal due to lower production in major producing states. Arrivals are yet to pick up in Maharashtra that keeping prices up. Shortage of premium quality of produce is prompting millers and stockists to buy good quality at higher cost. About 114.5 thousand tonnes has been arrived so far since Apr’23 to so far in May’23 at major APMC mandies as compared to 134.1 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, arrivals surged up in second half of May’23 due to fair realization but quality of the crop is questionable. Reports of crop damage are coming out due to unseasonal rainfall in Maharashtra that raised the worries over actual production. Production is expected to be revised down in Maharashtra wherein forecast of bleak monsoon has raised concerns over upcoming crop as well. Acreages under turmeric may shift to other kharif crops that will lead to fall in production. However, heavy stocks will cap the excessive gains. Turmeric June contract is expected to trade in range of 7800-8350 levels.

Jeera NCDEX June futures are expected to remain down in upcoming week due to subdued demand in local market. Surging imports at cheaper rate and increased seasonal supply is likely to weigh on prices. Due to higher prices, export dropped from India; India exported about 176 thousand tonnes in FY 2022-23 as compared to 204 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, government official data showed that export increased in Mar’23 due to festive buying amid prevailing crop concerns. Major trend is still bullish due to tighter carryover stocks and below normal arrivals in the market. Quality of the new crop is also questionable after recent rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera June futures are expected to trade in range of 41000-47500 levels.

Dhaniya NCDEX June prices are likely to trade on weaker note due to increased supplies at major trading centers. Overall dhnaiya production is estimated to increase by 8%-10% across India that will keep supplies adequate in coming weeks. However, losses are likely to be limited as prices are ruling near to 2 years low that will spark fresh buying in the market. Short covering can be seen at futures platform any time so cautious sell is advisable.Dhaniya NCDEX June futures are likely to trade in range of 6200-6800 levels.

BULLIONS

Gold experienced its third consecutive weekly decline as progress in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations strengthened the dollar. With a 1.9% drop so far this week, it could potentially be the largest decline since early February. The dollar remained close to its highest level since March 17, reducing the appeal of gold for international buyers. Additionally, benchmark Treasury yields approached their March highs. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy made significant strides towards reaching an agreement to reduce spending and raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. This progress is crucial as time is running out to prevent the risk of default. India's gold demand fell as prices hit record highs. Gold demand in India, the world's largest gold consumer, fell 17% in the first quarter of 2023. Gold ETF holdings rose by 2.6 tons to 1,019.9 tons. ETF holdings are a measure of investor demand for gold. In the COMEX market, gold prices are currently near the critical EMA 21 level, which is acting as a support for the market. However, if prices break below this level, it could potentially trigger a decline towards the $1900 mark. Currently, gold prices are encountering resistance near the $1970 levels, which could pose a challenge for further upward movement. Silver prices on COMEX have successfully broken below the key EMA 21, which indicates that selling pressure will continue in the counter. Prices may trade in the range of $20.800 to $24.600. Ahead in the week, Gold on MCX may continue to witness selling pressure and trade in the range of 57800-61000 levels. Silver will also witness selling and trade in the range of 66700-72000 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices faced a decline as investors placed their bets on higher interest rates anticipated from the US Federal Reserve. The Fed's expected move to raise interest rates multiple times this year, as a measure against inflation, contributed to the decreased attractiveness of oil to investors since it does not generate interest. Additionally, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to a production increase of 648,000 barrels per day in July and August. Conversely, US oil inventories experienced a larger-than-expected decline of 4.8 million barrels, as reported by the EIA, providing some support to crude oil prices. In contrast, gasoline prices in the US rose to $4.25 per gallon, reaching their highest level since July 2008. For the week, crude oil prices concluded on a lower note, influenced by investor expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.5% to $108.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices dropped 1.6% to $104.97 per barrel. Looking ahead, the outcomes of the US debt ceiling negotiations, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the pace of global economic growth are expected to significantly impact crude oil prices in the coming weeks. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that multiple factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical events, will shape the actual trajectory of crude oil prices. Ahead in the week, crude oil prices may continue to trade in the wider range of 5700-6300 levels. Natural gas prices rebounded from the lows as cooler weather forecast improves demand. Ahead in the week, prices may witness recovery and may trade in the range of 190-220 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as jitters over U.S. debt ceiling and signs of a global economic slowdown, tepid demand in top consumer China and improving supply may pressure the market. A stronger dollar may cut demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency, which further got a boost on expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain higher for longer than initially expected. In top metals consumer China, industrial output and retail sales grew slower than expected last month, reinforcing concerns of a spillover into the wider global economy and a drop in demand for industrial metals. Copper may trade in the range of 690-720. The much-anticipated rebound in China's copper imports and demand following the abrupt end to COVID lockdown policies has failed to materialise as of yet. Rising LME inventories increased the discount on the cash contract against three-month copper to $66 a tonne; it’s widest since early 1990s. Zinc can trade in range of 200-220. Refined zinc prices are expected to be on a downward trend until 2025, as weak demand growth failed to match with a surge in production, analysts said. Lead can move in the range of 177-186. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-215. The total showed aluminium inventories in Gwangyang in warehouses certified by the LME surged by 20,875 tonnes, bring the total in all global LME storage facilities to 575,875 tonnes. Steel long (June) is likely to trade in the range of 43000-48000 with bearish bias on NCDEX . The steel prices are set to bend under the combined weight of a slowdown in global demand, influx of cheap imports from far-eastern Asia and Russia.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton prices are likely to trade sideways to higher on reduced supplies in physical market. Growing worries over upcoming crop numbers due to rising possibilities of El Nino weather phenomenon in year 2023 will support firmness in prices. Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered its cotton crop estimate by 465,000 bales for the 2022-23 season to 29.8 million bales as production is expected to decline in Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. The latest estimate of cotton crop is the lowest since 2008-09 season which was 29.0 million bales. Cotton is likely to trade in range of 56000 -60000 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1450-1550 levels. Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX June futures are likely to trade down on demand concerns. However, losses are likely to be limited as bleak production of cotton and lower arrivals has affected the overall production of cotton seed oil cake adversely. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2350- 2750 levels.

Guar seed June futures are likely to trade down due to subdued demand. Heavy stocks of guar seed and bleak demand prospects of gum in wake of weakness in crude oil prices is likely to put pressure on prices. However, rising possibilities of drier spell of monsoon in year 2023 due to developing chance of an El Niño weather phenomenon will cap the excessive losses. Drier monsoon is likely to directly affect the sowing progress and yield of guar seed in year 2023. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5200-5600/5800 in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 9500-11000 levels.

Mentha oil June contract is likely to trade sideways to higher with shrinking supplies in the market. However, gains will be limited due to reports of tumbling export of menthol from India. India exported about 12.7 thousand tonnes of menthol during FY 2022-23 as compared to 19.7 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 36% Y-o-Y. Improved sowing number will also weigh on prices. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 945-1000 levels.

Castor seed prices are likely to remain under pressure due to adequate supplies. Higher production and limited export demand of castor oil will cap the major upside movement. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Y-o-Y. Castor seed June prices are likely to trade in range of 5350-5900 levels.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CRUDE OIL MINI MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 6836.00
M*.Low: 5581.00

It closed at Rs. 5950 on 25th May 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6021.18. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.122. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.6050 for a target of Rs. 5650 with the stop loss of 6200

ZINC MINI MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 245.00
M*.Low: 204.40

It closed at Rs. 206.20 on 25th May 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 225.45. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 25.34. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 216 for a target of Rs. 196 with the stop loss of 224.

GUARSEED NCDEX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 5892.00
M*.Low: 5330.00

It closed at Rs. 5422.00 on 25th May 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5579.88 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 19.599. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 5480 for a target of Rs. 5150 with the stop loss of 5620.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The global refined copper market saw a 332,000 tonne surplus in the first quarter, compared with an 8,000 tonne surplus in the corresponding period last year, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin.
  • Global primary aluminium output rose by 0.3% year on year in April to 5.628 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed.
  • According to World Steel Association (worldsteel), production in the 63 countries was down to 161.4 million tonnes against 162.7 million tonnes in April 2022.
  • Steel demand in India is expected to grow by 7.5 per cent to 128.85 million tonnes (mt) in FY24, as against 119.86 mt FY23: Indian Steel Association.
  • The total foodgrain production in the country in 2022-23 is estimated to go up to a record 330.5 million tonnes (MT) from 315.6 MT with a record production of wheat, rice, maize, oilseeds and sugarcane, according to the third advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare.
  • India’s Gross Domestic Product growth could be above 7% for 2022-23, the central bank governor said.
  • India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in the calendar year 2024, supported by resilient domestic demand, according to a UN report
  • India imported about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in April, about 4.4% higher than the previous month.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

In the week gone by, CRB closed in range on mixed triggers. Traders’ focus remained chiefly on negotiations among lawmakers over raising the U.S. spending limit, although neither Democrat nor Republican negotiators offered any cues on when a deal could be reached. Upside in dollar index kept commodities on lower side. Gold prices hovered near two-month lows on Thursday as markets remained on edge over raising the U.S. debt limit. Bullion counter saw steep fall on rise in dollar index. Both gold and silver broke psychological levels of 60000 and 71000 respectively. In the energy counter, crude oil outperformed natural gas. The rally in crude oil was largely driven by expectations of tighter U.S. supplies as the travel-heavy summer season approaches. A warning from the Saudi Arabian energy minister against shorting oil also boosted prices. Downside in US crude oil inventory also pressurized prices. U.S. crude inventories sank by a substantially bigger-than-expected margin in the past week.

Base metals nosedived further on weak data and debt ceiling concern. Ratings agency Fitch warned of a U.S. ratings downgrade in the event of a default. Furthermore, market expectations that the Fed will hike rates further in June were also growing, as shown by Fed Fund futures prices. This could spell more economic pain this year, as monetary policy remains restrictive. It exerted selling pressure in industrial metals. Copper prices fell further amid concerns over slowing economic growth and a weak outlook for demand. Zinc prices fell to their lowest since July 2020 on Thursday as weak demand for the metal used to galvanise steel pushed the market into surplus and exchange inventories rose. Prices have plunged 35% from a high in January as an economic recovery in China, zinc's biggest consumer, proved weaker than expected and rising interest rates slowed growth elsewhere. Steel and iron ore prices have also fallen. Chinese steel demand during the peak spring construction season was below expectations and building activity typically slows in summer.

In agri, Turmeric futures traded up due to lack of premium quality of produce in the market. Growing concerns over weaker production for upcoming season in wake of bleak monsoon forecast is likely to keep market sentiments up. Jeera witnessed steep fall amid surging imports of jeera at cheaper rate. Castor was in range due to higher production and limited export demand of castor oil. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Y-o-Y. Mentha witnessed some short covering recently. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Y-o-Y.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

16

COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Steel … “Key pillar of economic growth”

Steel industry is often considered as an economic indicator of any country’s development because of its critical role in infrastructural and overall economic development. Its production is considered one of the top contributors to the country’s GDP and the steel product is widely used in the construction of bridges, buildings and other infrastructure. Steel is also used to build vehicles, shipbuilding, machinery manufacturing, and fertiliser production. In India, around 60% of the Steel production is for Long Products used mainly for the Construction activities. Balance 40% of the Steel produced is for flat products, used for the electrical, automobile & engineering purpose. Steel application across segments will see a quantum jump, and moreover newer areas of usage such as the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and drone technology will provide ample opportunities to the steel players.

Global crude steel production

  • Global crude steel declined 2.4 per cent in April with China again dragging the output compared with the year-ago period. According to World Steel Association (worldsteel), production in the 63 countries that report to it was down to 161.4 million tonnes against 162.7 mt in April 2022.
  • In January-April 2023, production in the 63 nations that account for 97 per cent of world steel output was pegged at 622.7 mt, down 0.3 per cent.
  • Top producer China produced 92.6 mt, a decline of 1.5 per cent compared to the year-ago period. China produced 95.7 mt in March, an increase of 6.9 per cent over March 2022.
  • India reported a 3.2 per cent rise in production at 10.7 mt. However, it was lower than the 11.4 mt produced in March 2023.
  • Steel production in Japan and the US dropped by 3.1 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively, at 7.2 mt and 6.6 mt. Russian production was pegged at 6.4 mt, up by 1.9 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y).
  • South Korea’s output increased by 3 per cent at 5.7 mt while Germany’s production was down by 3.8 per cent at 3.2 mt.
  • Brazil’s output slipped 5.9 per cent to 2.8 mt but Iran reported a hike of 5.9 per cent at 3.1 mt.

Global crude steel demand

  • World steel said steel demand worldwide will grow 2.3 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2024 to touch 1,822 mt and 1,854 mt, respectively.
  • Manufacturing is expected to lead the recovery but high interest rates will continue to weigh on steel demand.
  • Persistent inflation and high-interest rates in most economies will limit the recovery of steel demand in 2023, despite positive factors like China’s reopening, Europe’s resilience in the face of the energy crisis, and the easing of supply chain bottlenecks.
  • India’s steel consumption is bucking the global trend and is estimated to grow 7-8% on rising government spending and signs of resurgence in private sector investments.

Outlook

International steel prices are expected to remain elevated due to high input costs, primarily iron ore and coking coal, and the on-going geopolitical crisis. The domestic steel prices are expected to directionally follow the global prices and strengthen due to continued strong domestic demand driven by continued thrust on infrastructure development and pick-up in the real estate and construction activities amid an overall economic revival and increase in input prices.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee reached an eight-week low against the US dollar at 82.80 due to the dollar's strong global performance and uncertainties surrounding monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India. Additionally the RBI's immediate withdrawal of 2000 Rupee banknotes is expected to inject 2 trillion Rupees into the system, increasing liquidity and potentially lowering shortterm rates weighed Rupee as well. However, the US dollar eased slightly but remained near a two-month high against major currencies. Debt ceiling negotiations between President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy impacted market sentiment, but progress in reaching a deal provided some relief. The dollar also weakened against the yen, reaching 139.77 from a six-month high of 140.23. The US dollar index slipped to 104.09 on track for a third straight weekly gain of over 0.8%, as expectations of further US interest rate hikes grew. Going forward, next week US debt ceiling negotiations deadline on June 1st will be key to watch. Apparently we are not expecting a big deviation in the US debt ceiling front but we can expect the trend in the US dollar notably against euro and pound will continue. Even Euro-Rupee and Pound-Rupee likely to edge lower in coming days.

USDINR (JUN)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.30 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.10 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.23 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.88.

One can buy near 82.40 for the target of 83.10 with the stop loss of 82.10.

GBPINR (JUN)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 101.20 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 102.55 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 102.55. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.00.

One can buy near 101.80 for the target of 102.80 with the stop loss of 101.30.

EURINR (JUN) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 88.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 89.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 89.50. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 35.16.

One can sell near 89.00 for the target of 88.00 with the stop loss of 89.50.

JPYINR (JUN) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 59.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 60.40 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 60.41. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 32.50.

One can sell near 59.50 for the target of 58.90 with the stop loss of 59.80.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

Nexus Select Trust lists at 3% premium on expected lines

Nexus Select Trust was listed with a decent premium of 3 percent over the issue price of Rs 100 per unit on the National Stock Exchange on May 19. This is the fourth REIT listing on the bourses since 2019. The initial public offering of India’s leading consumption center platform with 17 best-in-class urban consumption centers across 14 cities had received a healthy response from investors last week subscribing 5.45 times as the portion set aside for institutional investors was subscribed 4.81 times and that of non-institutional investors 6.23 times during May 9-11. Nexus Select Trust, India's first retail assets-focused REIT sponsored by global investment giant Blackstone, has raised Rs 3,200 crore via public issue, of which fresh issue proceeds of Rs 1,400 crore will be utilised for repaying debts of the asset SPVs and the investment entity; acquisition of stake and redemption of debt securities in certain asset SPVs; and general corporate purposes. The rest of Rs 1,800 crore was an offer for sale issued by unitholders. The price band for the offer was Rs 95-100 per unit. Nexus has a well-diversified tenant base of 1,044 domestic and international brands with 2,893 stores as of December 2022 and is also well-diversified across cities with no single asset and tenant contributing more than 18.3 percent and 2.8 percent of total gross rentals for December 2022.

Pune-based IT firm Vinsys completes pre-IPO round at Rs 200 cr valuation

Pune-based software company Vinsys has closed a pre-IPO round, in which marquee investors including Singapore-based NAV Capital Emerging Star Fund and Swiss-based xMultiplied participated. Other star investors include Nova Global Opportunities Fund, Aegis Investment Fund and Sambhavnath Investments, among others who took part in the funding round that valued the company at around Rs 200 crore. Earlier this month, the company had put out plans to go public and list on the SME exchange platform. Accordingly, it had also appointed Beeline Capital Advisors as the merchant banker for the public offer. Pune-based Vinsys offers customised courses for sectors such as BFSI, telecom, and government departments, where training for IT and processes is essential. It has a team of over 800 professionals certified by major tech companies and institutions. Currently, Vinsys operates in the UAE, Oman, Malaysia, Singapore, Nigeria, Kenya, the UK, and the US. As part of the expansion plan, the company said that it is actively seeking inorganic growth opportunities to expand its reach in new markets, including the US and the UK, while continuing to consolidate its position in the Middle East.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

HDFC Defence Fund advances NFO closing date from June 2 to May 30

HDFC Mutual Fund said that the closing date of the New Fund Offering (NFO) of its first defence sector fund in India, the HDFC Defence Fund (HDF) has been shifted to an earlier date from June 2 to May 30. The NFO was launched on May 19. Via the NFO, HDF aims to invest a minimum of 80 percent of the corpus in shares of defence and allied sector companies. Defence and allied sector stocks include (i) stocks forming part of certain eligible ‘basic industries’ based on AMFI industry classification including aerospace and defence, explosives, shipbuilding and allied services, as amended from time to time; or (ii) Stocks from any other defence and allied sectors as per the benchmark’s criteria; or (iii) stocks present on SIDM (Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers) list; and which obtain at least 10 percent of revenue from the defence segment. The scheme is being managed by Abhishek Poddar and the performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty India Defence Index TRI. Further, the investment strategy of the fund focuses on “growth and quality at reasonable valuations” and the fund manager will invest in companies of all sizes. As on April 28, 2023, the benchmark had 13 constituents. Hindustan Aeronautics and Bharat Electronics each had almost 20 percent allocation. Solar Industries, the third largest stock, has 18 percent weight. The universe for HDF comprises 21 stocks and 80 percent of the scheme money will have to be invested in some of these stocks.

Kotak Mutual Fund launches Kotak NIFTY 200 Momentum 30 Index Fund

Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund has launched Kotak NIFTY 200 Momentum 30 Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/ tracking the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 Index. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on June 8. The scheme will open for sale and repurchase within five business days from the date of allotment. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against the NIFTY 200 Momentum 30 Index (Total Return Index). The scheme will be managed by Devender Singhal, Satish Dondapati, and Abhishek Bisen. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that, before expenses, corresponding to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error. To achieve the investment objective, the scheme will follow a passive investment strategy with investments in stocks in the same proportion as in the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 Index. The investment strategy would revolve around reducing the tracking error to the least possible through rebalancing of the portfolio, taking into account the change in weights of stocks in the index as well as the incremental collections/redemptions from the scheme. The minimum subscription amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The minimum amount for monthly and quarterly SIP is Rs 500 (Subject to a minimum of 10 SIP installments of Rs 500 each). The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options.

UTI Mutual Fund launches UTI S&P BSE Housing Index Fund

UTI Mutual Fund has launched UTI S&P BSE Housing Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking S&P BSE Housing Total Return Index (TRI). The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on June 5. The scheme will open for purchase and redemption within five business days from the date of allotment. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE Housing TRI. The scheme will be managed by Sharwan Kumar Goyal and Ayush Jain. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that, before expenses, correspond to the total return of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error. The minimum subscription amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The minimum SIP amount for daily, weekly, and monthly SIP is Rs 500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The minimum SIP amount for quarterly SIP is Rs 1,500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options. The scheme will invest 95-100% in securities covered by the S&P BSE Housing Index and 0-5% in debt/ money market instruments including tri-party repo on government securities or treasury bills and units of liquid mutual funds.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY - LARGE CAP FUND

EQUITY - MID CAP FUND

EQUITY - SMALL CAP FUND

EQUITY - TAX SAVING FUND

BALANCED ADVANTAGE FUND

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 25/05/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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