In the week gone by, global stock markets witnessed see saw movement amid Iincreasing tension over Russia-Ukraine dispute. Global markets were already skittish over rising interest rates amid higher inflation and high energy prices. Sustained elevated oil prices are a risk for the market and have the potential to hamper an economic recovery. Higher crude oil prices pose a risk to faster global monetary and liquidity normalization, which may impact growth. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but remained below pre-pandemic levels as labor market conditions continue to tighten. Japan's economy rebounded to grow 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarters in the three months to December. Japan's core consumer prices rose for a fifth straight month in January but at a slower pace than in the previous month, boosting the likelihood the country's central bank will lag behind other economies in raising interest rates.
Back at home, domestic market too remained volatile as uncertainty continued around Ukraine- Russia scenario as well as weekly Index expiry. Continued FII selling in the domestic market infused cautiousness in investors. FII capital is likely to become more discerning due to the aggressive pace of monetary policy tightening by G3 Central banks. However, favorable domestic factors like a pro-growth budget and dovish RBI stance are keeping the bulls intact in the market. India’s CPI inflation for January rose to 6.01% breaching RBI’s tolerance level due to high food inflation and low base effect; this will be a point of concern for domestic market in the near-term. The RBI is currently projecting that inflation in India is likely to moderate in H2FY23, closer to its medium-term target, which provides room to the Central bank to keep monetary policy accommodative. With the earning season ending, the focus will shift back to global cues. In absence of any major domestic event, updates related to Russia-Ukraine tension and its impact on global markets will be on the radar.
On the commodity market front, CRB crossed 282 levels on rise in many commodities but rally looked tired from the higher side. Appreciation in INR locked the upside in gold; it appreciated from75.72 to 74.92. Positive news from the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations is providing much-needed relief to global oil prices, as the possibility of new crude supplies reduces the supply-demand deficit. On the other side, continued tension between Ukraine and Russia will limit the downside and if it escalates then prices will see a jump. Crude is expected to trade in a wide range of 6500-7200 levels. Gold and silver are expected to trade in range of 48400-52000 and 62000-66000 levels respectively. Base metals will remain volatile. Ifo Business Climate and GDP Growth Rate of Germany, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, CB Consumer Confidence, Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, PCE Price Index¸ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final and GDP Growth Rate of US, RBNZ Press Conference, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, GDP Growth Rate of Mexico etc are some triggers for commodities this week apart from Ukraine and Russia geopolitical tension.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The management of the company has provided robust guidance for growth of the company which makes optimistic about strong earnings growth for NTPC in the next couple of years. The management believes that the company currently has 6500 MW of renewable projects across various stages and out of this 1600 MW has been commercialized and 3500 MW will come under commissioning in next 18 months. Moreover, it also expects to spend 40% of total capex planned for FY22, FY23 on renewable projects which indicates very strong addition in renewable portfolio from FY24 onwards. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.154 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/Bv of 1x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.154.01.
The government’s focus on infrastructure spending and expected resurgence in institutional demand imply the B2B business will do well in future. Also, with the increasing inclination towards aspirational lifestyle, consumers today are looking for best-inclass branded products that offer them the pride of ownership.Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.402 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a three year average P/BVx of 13.5x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.29.77.
The stock closed at Rs 3632.15 on 18th February, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 3027.05 on 20th December, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 4347.00 on 01st June, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 3556.42
The stock has witnessed healthy correction from high of 4000 levels and tested 3100 levels in single down swing with short span of time. Then after, it consolidated in narrow range for 3 weeks and gave the breakout of same, and trading higher. Apart from this, the stock has formed an “Inverse Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, the stock has given the pattern breakout along with high volumes and also closed near week high. So, follow up buying may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 3600-3610 levels for the upside target of 3850-3890 levels with SL below 3420 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 2457.40 on 18th February, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1717.80 on 12th April, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 2576.85 on 13th December, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2166.80
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, the stock is forming a “Continuation Triangle” pattern on weekly charts which is bullish in nature. Past week, the stock tried to give the breakout of pattern but could not hold the due to high volatility across the board, managed to close with positive bias along with high volumes so further buying is anticipated from the stock from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 2420-2430 levels for the upside target of 2580-2630 levels with SL below 2330 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
In the week gone by, continues news flow of Ukraine and Russia tension created a volatility as well as uncertainty in the market. Selling pressure was seen on every bounce in index. Nifty indices faced pressure around 17500 levels as call writers were aggressive on this strike whereas on the other hand put writer were aggressive around 17000 levels. On weekly basis, Banknifty was weaker than nifty as banknifty has shed more than 2%. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 20.02 % while that for put options closed at 21.57. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 22.01% which was higher than the previous week. PCR OI for the week closed at 0.87 indicating call writers are more aggressive than put writers. From technical front, Nifty is hovering around its 100 days exponential moving average on daily charts, which is placed at 17350 levels. On daily chart, nifty is forming descending triangle and breakout in any direction can trigger a good momentum in nifty till then we can expect range bound volatile market. For Nifty, 17200-17100 zone would act as strong support while 17550-17650 zone could cap any sharp upside. Bank nifty has major supports at 36300 & 36700 levels. Rise is VIX created a caution in the market and any breakdown from heron may be forceful.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Apr) closed higher last week after it went through strong consolidation in the last 5-weeks. New season turmeric is hitting the physical market but the arrival volume is less as compared to expectations of the market participants. In the coming week, we expect the prices to trade higher towards 11200, if it breaks the resistance to 10500 while the support is at 9500 levels. Currently, the prices are up about 30.6% y/y on expectation of lower production and anticipation improving demand. In Nizamabad, the benchmark market in Telangana, arrivals were pegged at 10000-12000 (1 bag = 65 kg) this week which is lower compared to average during the last season. In the first 9-months (Apr- Dec) of FY 2021/22, exports down 20.7% to 1,16,400 tons as compared to last year but higher by 8.8%, compared with 5-year average. Jeera futures (Mar) closing higher for the eight consecutive weeks to trade at 4-year high levels. It is likely to trade higher towards 22500 levels with immediate support at 20800 levels. Moreover, crop damage on unfavorable weather conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan already supported prices since the sowing commenced. Currently prices are higher by 59% y/y on reports of drop in area and improving domestic demand. There are reports of crop damage on excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. In 2021/22, area under Jeera in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh ha Vs 4.69 lakh hac last year and according to 2nd advance estimates production expected to fall by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes Vs 4.0 lt last year. As per Govt. data, exports of jeera for Apr-Dec down by 24% Y/Y at 1.74 lakh tonnes compared to 2.30 lt last year. Dhaniya futures (Apr) closed higher for the third consecutive week on reports of lower than expected production in the coming season. The trend looks positive and trade higher towards new high of 12000 levels, if it breaks the resistance of 11300. Currently prices are higher by 69.4% y/y and up 25.7% since January due to lower area as farmers have shifted to other crops due to low returns last year and expecting lesser production while the exports are normal due to higher prices. As per govt. data, exports have been down 13% during Apr-Dec period at 37,500 tonnes Vs 43,100 tonnes last year but 11% higher compared to 5-year average.
It was an action packed week for gold in which it broke crucial resistance and added up war premium in its value. Gold advanced to an eight-month high above $1,900 an ounce as the prolonged standoff over Ukraine stoked demand for havens. Gold has made a strong start to the year, surging to the highest since June, as the possibility of a conflict in Europe buoyed prices. The commodity was set for a third weekly gain even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to raise rates, which could damp demand for the non-interest bearing precious metal. The world has an eagle eye on Russia and Ukarine tension and because of that equity has seen sluggish trend in recent weeks and gold has become more charming to all investors as a safe haven buying. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, which rose hopes that a diplomatic solution to the tensions can be found. Russia is demanding security guarantees, including Ukraine never joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the U.S. and allies offering arms control and other confidence-building measures. The next technical level to watch is around $1,920in CME. If, it crosses $1920, then we may see further rise. Support is near $1850. Silver is likely to touch $24.5 on downside in dollar index amid aggressive buying in base metals. On MCX, we can expect the wide range of 48400-51500 and 61000-66000 in gold and silver respectively. Expect that the further rally should continue if tension escalate, and vice versa, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also firmed.
Crude prices may trade in the range of 6550-7150 levels. Tension between top energy exporter Russia and the West over Ukraine may continue to support the rally while the prospect of extra supply from Iran returning to the market may outweigh the fears of a possible supply disruption arising from a Russian invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday there was every indication Russia planned to invade Ukraine in the next few days and is preparing a pretext to justify it, after Ukrainian forces and pro-Moscow rebels traded fire in eastern Ukraine. With oil demand also recovering as air travel and road traffic picks up, Commonwealth Bank sees Brent holding in the $90 to $100 a barrel range in the short term and topping $100 "quite easily" if tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine. On other side, talks to resurrect a nuclear deal with Iran entered their final stages which could unlock more crude supplies. Although the deal would bring about 1 million barrels a day of oil back to the market, the timing remains unclear. However, other investors do not expect prices to fall much in the near term. This expectation comes as Iran could add supply to the global market and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) continually struggles to meet production targets. Natural gas may continue to trade high volatility in the wide range of 290-380 levels. The weather is expected to be milder than normal over the next 2-weeks so the real demand will come from rising commercial activity or higher LNG exports. LNG exports are near record highs as markets push LNG to Europe.
Base metals may trade in the range with positive bias as the minutes of the US Fed meeting in January and the US economic data released did not boost the US dollar. The renewed tension in Russia and Ukraine and the news that Russia expelled US Ambassador increased the risk aversion in the market. Worries about smelter shutdowns in China and Europe and dwindling inventories at exchange warehouses have fuelled market anxiety about metals supply. China, the world's biggest metals consumer, pledged to cut corporate tax rates more forcefully, strengthen targeted fiscal spending, and tighten fiscal discipline this year as part of efforts to stabilise the macro economy ahead of the Communist Party's 20th party congress. Copper may trade in the range 745-800 levels. China's January copper cathode output from major smelters fell 7.49% from the prior month due to maintenance and the holiday season, state-backed research house Antaike said. Zinc can move in the range of 290- 310 levels. Lead can move in the range of 182-190 levels. Nickel may trade in the range of 1720-1850 levels. The prices are getting support by lower inventories and by the prospect of sanctions on Russia, a major producer of the metal, exacerbated concerns of reduced supply. Nickel stocks in LMEregistered warehouses are at their lowest since December 2019 at 83,736 tonnes, while premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract rose to $368 a tonne. Aluminum may move towards 270 levels with support of 254 levels on persisting supply concern. Smelter shutdowns in China and in Europe due to high energy costs and West's stand-off with Russia over Ukraine have continued to dampen the aluminium supply.
Cotton futures (Feb) closed lower for the first time in last 5-weeks on profit booking at higher levels. The trend is still positive as the supplies outpace demand. Last week, it touched its all-time high of 38630 supported by good domestic demand and cut in production by USDA monthly report. It is likely to trade in a range 36950 and 38630 levels. There is support at 37430, if broken the prices may move down towards 37000 levels. Current domestic prices are high 74.4% y/y and jumped about 11.90% in the New Year due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. In the second advance estimates, govt has cut cotton production in the country to 340 lakh bales from 362 lakh bales in 1st estimate. Earlier, CAI also cut estimates by 12.00 lakh bales to 348.13 lakh bales Vs 360.13 lakh bales earlier while domestic consumption increased by 10 lakh bales. Crop arrivals as of Jan 2022 estimated at 18.27 million bales down 9% compared to 3-year average. In its latest February report, the USDA cut its forecast for global cotton production in 2021-22 to 120.15 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 120.96 million bales projected in Jan 2022. World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are now 700,000 bales lower, due to 800,000-bale drop in production. India’s crop is reduced by 500,000 bales as a slow pace for market arrivals indicates weaker than expected yields. Guar seed futures (Mar) is trading in a range of 6200-6600 levels from last 7-weeks. Last week, some recovery is seen but it is facing the resistance at 6490 levels and expected to trade higher towards 7000 levels with support at 6250 due to improving physical demand. Currently, prices are up 60.6% y/y on expectation of weakest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand due to higher crude oil prices. The oil rig count is also higher by about 200 compared to last year. In Nov, Guar gum exports are higher by 33% y/y at 24,150 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Nov) are up by 44.4% y/y at 2.09 lakh tonnes. Higher crude oil prices and increase in rig count in the US is good news for the guar gum demand and the prices may support in coming weeks. Castor Seed (Mar) closed higher for the fourth consecutive week and touched its all-time high price of 7248 and likely to trade higher towards 7500 level with support at 7100 level. The prices are currently higher by 64.5% y/y, as production of castor expected to be lowest in last three years. As per second advance estimates, castor output is pegged at 15.08 lakh tonnes, down about 8.5% from last year production. Gujarat agriculture department’s second advance estimate cut castor seed production by 1-lakh tonnes to 13.02 lt compared 14 lt in the first estimate. Last year production was 13.45 lt. Castor oil was exported during Apr- Dec at par with the last year export volume at 5.15 lakh tonnes. However, castor meal exports down 4.64% during the same period.
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COPPER MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 771.10 on 17th Feb 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 815.00 on 10th May’2021 and a low of Rs. 585.70 on 01st Feb’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 764.22. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.647.
One can buy near Rs. 762 for a target of Rs. 800 with the stop loss of 745.
ZINC MCX (MAR) contract was closed at Rs. 299.55 on 17th Feb’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 320.55 on 18th Oct’2021 and a low of Rs. 202.75 on 28th Jan’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 298.18. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.183.
One can buy near Rs. 296 for a target of Rs. 316 with the stop loss of Rs 289.
GUARSEED NCDEX (MAR)contract closed at Rs. 6276.00 on 17th Feb’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 7185.00 on 29th Oct’2021 and a low of Rs. 3725.00 on 01st Apr’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6288.34. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.547.
One can buy near Rs. 6210 for a target of Rs. 6500 with the stop loss of Rs. 6080.
CRB crossed 282 levels on rise in many commodities but rally looked tired from the higher side. Appreciation in INR locked the upside in gold; it appreciated from75.72 to 74.92 levels. With consumer inflation at 40-year highs, expectations had been growing that the Fed policymakers had already decided to start its policy tightening with a 50 basis point hike at its March meeting. It gave upside to dollar index. Gold saw a very quick solid jump and reached to its strong resistance near $1905. Silver was also up. Oil and gold prices rose after NATO and the United States said Russia increased its troop build-up near Ukraine; while dovish Fed minutes helped stocks close mostly flat on Wall Street. Crude saw a jump but couldn’t stay on higher side. Oil fall was limited after Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine accused Kyiv government forces on Thursday of shelling their territory with mortars. Positive development in Iran nuclear deal, also kept prices in range. On the other hand, natural gas prices were on boil again and it touched a high of 360 levels. Base metals moved in different direction; lead, copper and zinc prices saw profit booking at higher side whereas nickel and aluminum appreciated further. China's state planner has told some iron ore traders to release excessive inventory and reduce stocks to reasonable levels. Stocks of imported iron ore at China's ports had been climbing since the second half of 2021 to hit a 3-1/2 year high of over 157 million tonnes in late December, according to SteelHome consultancy. Nickel prices rose last week to their highest levels in 3-1/2 weeks after the market was bolstered by lower inventories and as the prospect of sanctions on Russia, a major producer of the metal, exacerbated concerns of reduced supply.
In agri, castor continued its northward journey; crossed 7000. As per second advance estimates by the Government, castor output is pegged at 15.08 lakh tonnes, down about 8.5% from last year production of over 16 lakh tonnes. Cotton and kapas saw a pause in the rally. Cotton oil seeds cake too traded weak. Guarex witnessed fall from higher side. Guarseed and guargum witnessed pressure in last three week. Mentha lost strength further on weaker export demand. In spices, jeera appreciated for continuous tenth week whereas turmeric saw a fall. Dhaniya crossed 11000 last week. There are reports of crop damage of jeera due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Sluggish demand for turmeric and expectation of new season arrivals is keeping the prices in the consolidation mode since last one month.
The Second Advance Estimates of production of major crops for the year 2021-22 have been released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. As per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22, total food grains production in the country is estimated at record 316.06 million tonnes which is higher by 5.32 million tonnes or 1.71 per cent than the production of food grain during 2020-21. Further, the production during 2021-22 is higher by 25.35 million tonnes than the previous five years’ (2016-17 to 2020-21) average production of food grains. Union Minister for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Shri Narender Singh Tomar said that the new record of food grains production in the country is the result of hard work of farmers, efficient research of scientists and farmer friendly policies of the Government.
The record production of food grains, which has been rising continuously every year since 2016-17, has helped India to be among the top 10 agricultural produce exporters in the world. Total production of Rice during 2021-22is estimated at record 127.93 million tonnes. It is higher by 11.49 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 116.44 million tonnes.
Production of Wheat during 2021-22is estimated at record 111.32 million tonnes. It is higher by 7.44 million tonnes than the average wheat production of 103.88 million tonnes.
Production of Nutri / Coarse Cereals estimated at 49.86 million tonnes, which is higher by 3.28 million tonnes than the average production.
Total Pulses production during 2021-22is estimated at 26.96 million tonnes which is higher by 3.14 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 23.82 million tonnes. Among pulses, gram production is estimated to reach at 13.12 million tonnes during the current year from 11.91 million tonnes during the last year.
Total Oilseeds production in the country during 2021-22is estimated at record37.15 million tonnes which is higher by 1.20 million tonnes than the production of 35.95 million tonnes during 2020-21. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2021-22 is higher by 4.46 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production. The rabi oilseed production is expected to reach 133.32 million tonnes in the current year, which is 9.06 per cent higher than the last year’s figure of 122.24 million tonnes. The production of rapeseed & mustard, which is the main rabi oilseed crop, is expected to reach at a record level of 114.59 million tonnes–12.24 per cent higher than last year’s figure of 102.10 million tonnes. The increase in rapeseed and mustard production is significant because the edible oil prices, particularly mustard oil prices, have soared to a record high in recent months.
Total production of Sugarcane in the country during 2021-22is estimated at 414.04 million tonnes which is higher by 40.59million tonnes than the average sugarcane production of 373.46 million tonnes.
Production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales. Production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at 9.57 million bales (each of 180 kg).
Rupee snapped back its weekly losses after Russia-Ukraine geo- conflicts latest news from Russia-Ukraine broke out that US Sec State will meet Russian foreign minister later next week. Meanwhile Brent oil broke key level notably Brent now below $90.50 amid ease in Russia-Ukraine border tension. We will maintain our negative stance in USDINR for next. From the majors, the UK pound remained steady versus dollar and rupee as well. It trades near the upper end of the $1.35 to $1.3650 range in place so far this February. Traders have slightly pared back expectations for hikes by the Bank of England in 2022, but odds still favor at least five rates hikes and +150 bps by year-end. The euro remains flat in the midst of tensions between Ukraine-Russia. The rally in the euro, following the ECB’s hawkish change of heart, has seen little follow through. While JPYINR is an outperformer for this week. USDJPY broke below ¥115 for the first time in a week. However later this week it retreated back to above 115.00.
USD/INR (FEB) contract closed at 75.1100 on 17-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 75.7950 on 15-Feb-21 and a low of 75.0025 on 17-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 75.0250.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.83.One can sell at 75.25 for the target of 74.25 with the stop loss of 75.75.
GBP/INR (FEB) contract closed at 102.1925 on 17-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 102.5775 on 15-Feb-21 and a low of 101.7425 on 16-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.6400.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.40. One can buy at 101.75 for a target of 102.75 with the stop loss of 101.25.
| 18th FEB | Biden says Russia set to invade Ukraine within days |
| 17th FEB | ECB chief economist shifts inflation stance to signal policy ‘normalization’ |
| 17th FEB | White House says Russian troop withdrawal claims are ‘false’ |
| 16th FEB | Top finance watchdog warns west over Russia sanctions |
| 16th FEB | UK inflation climbs to 30-year high of 5.5% |
| 15th FEB | Rising energy costs push eurozone trade deficit to 13-year high |
| 15th FEB | Russia says it has pulled back some troops from near Ukraine |
| 15th FEB | Japan’s economy expands 5.4% in fourth quarter after Covid curbs eased |
| 14th FEB | Jay Powell keeps options open as he seeks Fed consensus on rate move |
EUR/INR (FEB) contract closed at 85.4200 on 17-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 85.8900 on 15-Feb-21 and a low of 85.2050 on 16-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 85.1720.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.87. One can sell at 85.50 for a target of 84.50 with the stop loss of 86.00.
JPY/INR (FEB) contract closed at 65.2825 on 17-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 65.9925 on 14-Feb-21 and a low of 64.8750 on 16-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 65.1785.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.53. One can sell at 65.40 for a target of 64.40 with the stop loss of 65.90.
Vedant Fashions, which offers Indian wedding and celebrations wear, started off first day first trade on a positive note as the stock listed with a 8 percent premium to issue price of Rs 866. The maiden public offer of Vedant Fashions saw 2.57 times subscription during February 4-8 as the maximum support was led by qualified institutional buyers whose reserved portion was subscribed 7.49 times. However, there was muted demand from non-institutional investors and retail investors whose allotted quota was booked 1.07 times and 39 percent respectively. The company raised Rs 3,149.19 crore through its public issue that was entirely an offer for sale by promoter and investors. Hence, the company did not receive issue proceeds as the IPO money was received by the selling shareholders. The price band for the offer was Rs 824-866 per share. Vedant Fashions is a one stop destination for celebration wear with Manyavar brand as a category leader in branded Indian wedding and celebration. It is the largest company in India in men's Indian wedding and celebration.
The capital markets regulator has shone the IPO greenlight for Uma Exports, Jesons Industries, and Capital Small Finance Bank. Capital Small Finance Bank had filed draft papers for IPO in November which consists of an issue of shares worth Rs 450 crore and an offer for sale of up to 3.84 million shares by Amicus Capital Pvt Equity I LLP and others. Proceeds will be used to augment Tier I capital base to meet future capital requirements. As of June 2021, Tier I capital base was Rs 446 crore and capital to risk (weighted assets ratio) was 21.12%. Edelweiss Financial Services, Axis Capital and SBI Capital Markets are the lead managers to the issue. Uma Exports had filed draft papers on 2 July and plans to raise around Rs 36 crore via fresh issue and an offer for sale of up to 14.69 million shares by investors and promoters. Proceeds will be used for expansion of business by upgrading the manufacturing facility at Timba, Gujarat and repayment or prepayment of unsecured loans, among other things. Jesons Industries filed draft papers in November and plans a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 120 crore and an offer for sale of more than 1.21 crore equity shares by promoter Dhiresh Shashikant Gosalia. Mumbai-based Jesons may also consider a pre-IPO placement issue to raise Rs 24 crore. The proceeds from the issue will be used to repay debt.
True North and Sequoia-backed Kids Clinic India, the Cloudnine brand operator, has filed preliminary papers with the capital markets regulator SEBI to launch an initial public offering to raise funds. The public issue comprises a fresh issue of Rs 300 crore and an offer for sale of more than 1.32 crore equity shares by founders and investors. Founders R Kishore Kumar and Scrips 'N' Scrolls India will sell more than 18 lakh equity shares, while investors True North Fund V LLP, Indium V (Mauritius) Holdings, and SCI Growth Investments II will offload 1.14 crore equity shares via offer for sale. The offer will also include a reservation of shares for the company's employees. Cloudnine which operates in super-speciality mother and baby-care space may consider fundraising of Rs 60 crore via pre-IPO placement, before filing the red herring prospectus with the ROC. If the said pre-IPO placement is completed, then accordingly the fresh issue size will get reduced up to the extent of funds raised. Cloudnine will utilise fresh issue proceeds for repaying debts (Rs 95 crore), setting up new centres at various locations (Rs 117.9 crore), and acquisition of further shareholding in the subsidiary, Acquity Labs (Rs 12.71 crore), besides general corporate purposes. Kids Clinic India claimed to be the leading brand in the super-speciality mother and baby-care space, based on the highest revenue and highest number of hospitals across the major cities as of FY21. The private maternity healthcare market in FY20 was Rs 20,800 crore and is projected to grow to Rs 26,100 crore in FY26.
Macleods Pharmaceuticals said it has filed a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its Rs 5000 crore initial public offering (IPO). The IPO consists of an Offer for Sale (OFS) of up to 60.48 million shares by the promoter and promoter group. The promoters of the company who will be selling shares include Girdharilal Bawri, Banwarilal Bawri and Dr Rajendra Agarwal. The company is wholly owned by promoter and promoter group and has grown organically since inception – through internal accruals, and without raising any external funding from private equity players. Established in 1989, Macleods is the seventh-largest company in the Indian pharmaceutical market for the six months ended September 30, 2021, according to AIOCD. The company had revenues of Rs 7,750 crore and a net profit of Rs 2,023 crore in FY21. Its domestic business comprises branded generics, constituting 51.73% of its total revenue from operations in FY21. Its domestic sales grew faster than the IPM at a CAGR of 15.3% from FY11 to FY21, compared to 10.8% growth in domestic sales of the IPM in the same period, as per IQVIA. The company is known for its anti-infectives, cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, dermatology, and hormone treatment brand and has a significant presence in North and East India. Revenue from operations outside India grew at a CAGR of 21.51% from FY19 to FY21 representing 48.27% of revenues from operations in FY21. Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, Citigroup Global Markets India, Edelweiss Financial Services, ICICI Securities and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) are the book running lead managers to the IPO.
TVS Supply Chain Solutions, part of the erstwhile TVS Group, has filed its DRHP with market regulator SEBI. The IPO consists of fresh issue of equity shares aggregating upto Rs 2,000 crore and an offer for sale of up to 59.48 million equity shares of face value Re 1 each. The company will use a majority of the net proceeds from the IPO (Rs 1,166 crore) to repay or prepay its outstanding borrowings. The prepayment or scheduled repayment will assist the company in maintaining a favourable debt to equity ratio and enable utilization of internal accruals for further investment in business growth and expansion. The company will also deploy Rs 75.2 crore in Fiscal 2023 towards the capitalization of its subsidiaries in Germany, USA and Thailand. Further, Rs 60 crore will also be infused in the company’s UK arm, to increase its stake in Rico UK to 100%. Finally, the remaining amount from the net proceeds will be deployed towards inorganic growth and general corporate purposes. The offer for sale shall comprise of up to 20 million equity shares by TVS Mobility Private Limited up to 15.9 million equity shares by Omega TC Holdings up to 12 million equity shares by Mahogany Singapore Company, up to 1.5 million equity shares by Tata Capital Financial Services Limited and Up to 4.2 million equity shares by DRSR Logistics Service. JM Financial Limited, Axis Capital Limited, J. P. Morgan India Private Limited, BNP Paribas, Edelweiss Financial Services Limited and Equirus Capital Private Limited are the Book Running Lead Managers to the IPO.
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UTI Mutual Fund has launched an open-ended scheme tracking the S&P BSE Low Volatility Total Return Index (TRI) - UTI S&P BSE Low Volatility Index Fund. The New Fund Offer is currently open and will close on February 25. The scheme will re-open for subscription and redemption on an ongoing basis from March 07. Minimum initial investment is Rs 5,000/- and in multiples of Re. 1 thereafter. Subsequent minimum investment under a folio is Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter with no upper limit. The scheme offers Regular Plan and Direct Plan. The fund will be managed by Sharwan Kumar Goyal, Head - Passive, Arbitrage & Quant Strategies, UTI AMC. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that, before expenses, closely correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced the launch of ICICI Prudential Nifty Bank Index Fund, an open-ended index fund replicating the Nifty Bank Index. The NFO is open for subscription and will close on February 24. Minimum investment during NFO period is Rs 5,000 (plus in multiple of Re. 1). According to a press release, the scheme provides exposure to 12 liquid and well-capitalized stocks from the banking sector. “The Indian banking sector holds tremendous growth potential given the robust demand in their services, constant innovation in terms of improving operational efficiency along with improving business fundamentals owing to various reforms in this space. Also, banks and financial services form the highest weightage in broader market indices (Nifty 500 and Nifty 50) which emphasizes its importance in contributing to broader market trends,” said Chintan Haria, Head- Product Development & Strategy, ICICI Prudential AMC.
Asset management company DSP Mutual Fund has applied for three schemes -- S&P BSE BFSI Next Index, Nifty Bank ETF, Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 Index -- with the markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). DSP S&P BSE BFSI Next Index Fund, which is benchmarked against the S&P BSE Diversified Financials Revenue Growth Index, is an open-ended scheme replicating or tracking S&P BSE Diversified Financials Revenue Growth Index. The index is designed to measure the performance of non-state-owned companies from the S&P BSE 500 in the finance sector. The next index, DSP Nifty Bank Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) would track the Nifty Bank Index, which is comprised of the most liquid and large capitalized Indian banking stocks. DSP has also filed for a Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 Index that will track the Nifty Midcap 150 Quality 50 Total Return Index (TRI). The fund house had launched an ETF based on the index in December 2021. INDUS
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