In the week gone by, global stock markets moved higher, buoyed by improved sentiments worldwide regarding the end of the rate hike cycle. Presently, all three major central banks—the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank—have maintained interest rates in their latest policy decisions, signaling a commitment to a 'tight' policy for an extended period. The US Economy expanded at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023, upwardly revised from the first estimate of 4.9% and above the forecasted figure of 5%. Meanwhile, Britain's sluggish economy failed to grow in the July-to-September period but at least managed to avoid the start of a recession. In the month of September alone, the economy grew by 0.2% from August when growth was revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%. Japan’s economy contracted at the sharpest pace since the height of the pandemic, complicating the policy path for the Bank of Japan as it inches toward ending the world’s last negative rate regime. Gross domestic product shrank at an annualized 2.9% in the three months through September from the previous period. The BOJ’s policy board is widely expected to keep its policy settings unchanged when its next meeting concludes on December 19.
Back at home, domestic markets moved higher as market sentiment remained upbeat following strong macro numbers and BJP's victory in the three large states. The strong domestic growth has remained supportive for resilience in the Indian stock markets despite global slowdown fears. A robust foreign investors’ participation in the domestic market is fueled by receding inflation and dropping yields. Besides, the magnetism of Indian market gains post-China credit rating downgrade and decline in oil prices was followed by ease in geopolitical tensions. The Reserve Bank left its key interest rate unchanged for the 5th straight time, signaling that price stability remained its primary objective. The RBI raised GDP growth forecast for FY24 to 7% from 6.5%. The central bank also raised the UPI limit for hospitals and educational institutions to Rs 5 lakh from Rs 1 lakh. Going forward, domestic markets will continue to take cues from both domestic and global factors.
On the commodity market front, the CRB index crossed the 300-mark after several weeks on bearish sentiments. Bullion experienced significant fluctuations on both sides, with gold reaching record highs on both MCX and COMEX but failing to sustain these levels due to renewed buying in the dollar index. Gold reached a lifetime high of 64,640, while silver hit an all-time high of 78,590 on MCX but closed near 74,500, helped by a mix of rate cut bets and safe-haven demand. Gold and silver can trade in the range of 61500-64500 levels and 73000- 77000 levels respectively. Crude oil can recover from the low, but the upside should be limited up to 6250. Commodity traders will need to closely monitor a plethora of data points and events, including the unemployment rate and GDP of the UK, ZEW Economic Sentiments for the Euro Area and Germany, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, Retail Sales, PPI, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and FOMC Economic Projections for the US, New Yuan Loans for China, GDP of New Zealand, Unemployment rate for Australia, BoE and ECB Interest Rate Decisions, ECB Press Conference, Manufacturing PMI for Germany, and various other economic indicators.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The bank is showing strong growth in business and improved asset quality. It is leveraging digital and technology across businesses for growing the risk- calibrated core operating profit. It is seeing increasing adoption and usage of its digital platforms by its customers. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1164 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/BV of 3.05x and FY25 (E) BVPS of Rs. 381.76.
The demand continues to be stable, and the company is witnessing mid-single-digit growth in its topline across all three segments – replacement, OEMs, and international business. It is focusing on better product mix, cost efficiencies and judicious pricing which has helped to improve margins in last couple of quarters. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2784 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current P/BV of 2.51x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.1109.46.
The stock closed at Rs.95 on 08th December, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.61.80 on 28th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.103.40 on 05th September, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs89.
After making its 52 week high of 103.40 in month of September 2023, the stock retraced back towards its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval and took support around 88 levels. From the past two weeks once again, lower level buying has been emerged into the prices as the stock has given almost a V shape recovery from its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval. At current juncture stock has given a fresh breakout above the declining trend line of long term channel seen on weekly interval. The renewed momentum is likely to pick on the back of follow up buying into a stock after a breakout. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 94-95 levels for the upside target of 105-106 levels with SL below 88 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.1744.85 on 08th December, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.1336.40.10 on 17th May, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1920.35 on 07th December 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1640
From last three to four months, the stock has been trading under pressure as prices has seen a consistent downside from 1850 levels towards 1600 levels with formation of lower high pattern on the weekly interval. However a smart recovery has also been observed from last two weeks as the stock has managed to take support at its 200 days exponential moving average on the weekly interval. If we look at broader charts, the stock has given a breakout above the Cup & handle pattern along with positive divergences on secondary oscillators. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1740-1745 levels for the upside target of 1935-1950 levels with SL below 1620 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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In the week gone by, both Nifty and Banknifty indices managed to close at their record highs with whooping gains of more than 3.5% & 5.45% respectively. The market recorded its biggest weekly gains since July 2022 as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left the key interest rate unchanged for the fifth time in a row. Nifty indices gained for sixth consecutive week while banking index also closed higher for the third straight week. Technically both the indices are maintaining their bullish momentum as buying has been observed on every dip on the back of fresh inflows. From the derivative front, call writers were seen adding open interest at 21000 strike while put writers remained active at 20950, 20900 & 20800 strikes. Going forward, Nifty could find some resistance at its key psychological level of 21000 while any fresh momentum above that could once again trigger fresh round of momentum, which can move Nifty towards 21300 level as well. On downside now 20800-20700 zone would act as a strong support for the index and we advise traders to remain on bullish side and use every dip to create fresh longs. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 10.37%, while put options concluded at 11.25%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 12.67%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.54 for the week.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices traded on a weaker note with surging selling pressure in the market. Muted domestic demand prompted stockists to offload their stocks ahead of commencement of new crop season. Major focus is on ongoing crop progress that is looking satisfactory. Yield prospects improved due to favorable weather condition for crop progress in Telangana and Maharashtra. However, overall production is likely to remain down as compared to current year (2023- 24) year production of 10.45 lakh tonnes due to lower acreages under turmeric. Acreages shrunk in year 2024-25 that will lead to fall in production by at least by 8%-10% Y-o-Y. With recent fall in turmeric prices, turmeric export is expected to increase in coming months as per export seasonality that will cap the major downfall in turmeric prices. Indian turmeric exports tumbled in Sep’24 by 35% Y-o-Y to 9.0 thousand tonnes with fall in imports in Bangladesh. Turmeric Apr prices are likely to trade in range of 14100-15300 levels in coming weeks.
Jeera futures resumed its downtrend on higher production prospects in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Aggressive sowing for Jeera in Gujarat and sluggish exports weighed on the market sentiments. About 3.76 lakh Ha was sown under jeera as on 4th Dec in Gujarat as compared to 1.44 lakh Ha of previous year. Limited availability of quality produce in the market and tighter stocks with millers capped the major downfall in spot prices as it is ruling at premium of about 3000 over futures. Spot prices that are ruling at premium will come down gradually with increasing domestic supplies ahead of new crop season in Mar’24. Weakness in Jeera is likely to remain continue with improved production prospects that will force stockists to release their stocks in expectation of rise in supplies in domestic market. Impact of lower supplies is being seen on total export as Jeera export dropped again in Sep’24 by 65% Y-o-Y to 5.9 thousand tonnes as compared to 17.15 thousand tonnes of previous year. Total Jeera exports have slumped 32% Y-o-Y during Apr’23-Sep’23. Jeera is likely to slip towards support of 35600/30000 whereas resistance is seen at 45000.
Dhaniya prices are likely to remain under pressure on surging selling pressure in the market. Stockists are offloading their stocks in fear of further fall in prices in wake of higher stocks in the market. But losses are likely to be limited in wake of weaker production prospects. Spot prices of dhaniya have been almost stable with limited losses ruled at 7964 at Kota market. Sowing activities are slower so far in year 2023 due to delayed sowing in Gujarat as only 97.8 thousand Ha was sown under dhaniya in Gujarat as on 4th Dec as compared to 1.75 lakh Ha of previous year. India exported about 4 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in Sep’23 against the 2.5 thousand tonnes of last year whereas overall export was reported at 66.2 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Sep’23 higher by 297% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in the range of 6800-8200 levels.
Gold experienced its first weekly decline in four weeks as the dollar strengthened. Despite maintaining stability, the precious metal faced uncertainty ahead of crucial U.S. job data, crucial for assessing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March. After reaching a record high of $2,135.40, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold plummeted by over $100 due to uncertainty surrounding the timing of the cut. The dollar index (DXY) was set to break a three-week losing streak, rendering gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Although gold retained robust support above the $2,006 per ounce level, the potential for a rate cut might jeopardize this support if U.S. payroll data exceeds expectations. Concerns arose about the U.S. labor market losing momentum gradually, influenced by higher borrowing costs dampening demand across the broader economy. Traders eagerly awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November, anticipating an addition of 180,000 jobs. Market sentiment suggested a 65% probability of a rate cut as early as March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. In contrast, a Reuters poll indicated expectations of unchanged rates until at least July. On the Comex, gold struggled to sustain levels above its previous resistance of $2,080, with potential support around $1,980. Silver displayed a bearish bias, with expected support near $21.80 and resistance at $25.60. Looking ahead, on MCX, gold prices might face selling pressure, finding support around 61,000 and resistance near 63,700. Silver charts indicated ongoing weakness, with a bearish momentum and a probable trading range of 72,900 to 76,000.
Crude oil sustained its seventh consecutive weekly decline, driven by concerns surrounding a global supply surplus and weakened Chinese demand. However, prices rebounded on Friday following a call from Saudi Arabia and Russia urging additional OPEC+ members to participate in output cuts. Both Brent and WTI benchmarks reached their lowest points since late June, reflecting market perceptions of oversupply. The contango market structure, where front-month prices trade at a discount to future prices, further emphasized this sentiment, prompting some short sellers to close positions in response to perceived overselling. The plummeting oil prices compelled OPEC+ to strengthen solidarity and address market concerns. Saudi Arabia and Russia, as the world's two largest oil exporters, called for broader cooperation within OPEC+ to implement output cuts for the benefit of the global economy. Despite pledges from OPEC+ members, the total production reduction from December 2023 to January 2024 amounted to only 350,000 barrels per day (bpd), dropping from 38.23 million bpd to 37.92 million bpd. The market downturn was exacerbated by worries about China's economic condition and the surge in U.S. oil output. In India, fuel consumption in November declined after reaching a four-month peak in the preceding month, influenced by reduced travel in the world's third-largest oil consumer following a festive boost. Looking ahead, oil prices may continue to face selling pressure, finding support near 5,780 and resistance near 6,200. In the U.S., natural gas futures dipped below $2.6/MMBtu, marking a five-month low due to a surplus in supply over demand. Record-high domestic natural gas production allowed utilities to build reserves, despite a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 117 billion cubic feet (bcf) reported in the latest EIA data. Anticipated price movement in the upcoming week suggests continued trading in the range of 200-240.
Base metals may trade sideways with bullish bias as data showing improved exports from top metals consumer, China signalled better demand prospects for the commodity sector. China's exports grew for the first time in six months in November, suggesting factories in the world's second-largest economy are attracting buyers through discount pricing to get over a prolonged slump in demand. China's trade surplus for November 2023 increased to USD 68.39 billion, surpassing market expectations, as exports unexpectedly grew, while imports saw a slight decline. On flip side, Moody's downgrade of China's government credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing economic uncertainties and property market risks may continue to weigh on counter. Copper may trade in the range of 700-730. The premium to import copper into China hovered around a one-year high level at $112.50 a ton, indicating rising demand to get the metal into China. The country's November copper imports climbed 10.1% from the prior month to the highest in almost two years, as dwindling stocks and a stronger yuan bolstered buying interest. The massive demand boom for industrial metals from green energy is topping out in term of growth rates while weakness in China's property sector will also weigh on demand. Zinc can trade in range of 210-230 levels. Lead can move in the range of 178-187 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 190-205 levels. London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of aluminium have been draining away steadily since August and headline inventory of 443,000 metric tons is now the lowest since February. Steel long (Dec) is likely to trade in the range of 42000-44500 and buy on dip should be strategy.
Cotton prices are likely to trade on a positive bias. Weaker production estimates and emerging winter season demand of cotton supported firmness in prices. About 53.6 lakh bales of cotton have arrived by till 7th Dec since beginning of Oct’23. Daily arrivals of cotton reported at 1.20 lakh bales as on 6th Dec. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has procured close to 3 lakh bales of cotton after cotton prices dropped in various cotton-growing regions across the country, mainly in the tribal and remote areas. Uncompetitiveness of Indian cotton prices making export unviable at prevailing rates that will cap the excessive gains in prices. Arrivals of new crop are likely to pick up further with advancement of harvesting activities that will restrict the major upside in cotton. Cotton MCX Dec prices are likely to trade in range of 55000-57000. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1560-1600 level. Cocud Prices are expected to trade mixed to higher with increased demand in domestic market. Lower production of cotton will keep overall supplies down that will support firmness in cocud prices. Cocud is likely to trade in range of 2750-3000 levels.
Guar seed futures are expected to trade higher on shrinking supplies in market. Overall production of guar has been down as compared to last year that prompting stockists for aggressive buying on every downfall in prices. Domestic demand of guar meal also increased that will lead to rise in demand of guar seed at prevailing levels. Bleak export prospects of guar gum are likely to cap the gains. Persistent fall in crude oil prices and tumbling rig counts in US has raised worries over export potential of guar gum keeping guar prices down. Guar seed prices are likely to find support near 5450 whereas resistance is seen at 6000. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to honor support of 10700 whereas resistance is seen at 12800 levels.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in domestic market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 692 tonnes of mentha oil during Apr23-Aug’23 as compared to 886 tonnes of previous year down by 21% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near 900 and resistance can be seen at 980 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with shrinking supplies in the market. Reports of rise in export of castor meal are likely to support firmness in prices. India exported about 213 thousand tonnes of castor seed during Apr’23-Oct’23 as compared to 189 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5800-6300 levels.
It closed at Rs. 715.20 on 07th Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.717.783. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.938. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.715 for a target of Rs. 735 with the stop loss of 705.
It closed at Rs. 214.80 on 07th Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.235.674. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 19.748. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.210 for a target of Rs.250 with the stop loss of 195.
It closed at Rs.14758.00 on 07th Dec 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.15102 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.526. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.14950 for a target of Rs. 14150 with the stop loss of 15300.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The CRB index crossed the 300-mark after several weeks on bearish sentiments. Bullion experienced significant fluctuations on both sides, with gold reaching record highs on both MCX and COMEX but failing to sustain these levels due to renewed buying in the dollar index. Gold reached a lifetime high of 64,640, while silver hit an all-time high of 78,590 on MCX but closed near 74,500, helped by a mix of rate cut bets and safe-haven demand. Crude oil faced a seven-week decline due to bearish demand and abundant supply, breaking key levels of $70 on NYMEX and ₹60,000 on MCX, worries over a global supply surplus, and weak Chinese demand. Chinese customs data showed its crude oil imports in November fell 9% from a year earlier as high inventory levels, weak economic indicators, and slowing orders from independent refiners weakened demand. Natural gas also closed weak, and all base metals showed a bearish trend with no relief from the Chinese economic front. In the agricultural sector, castor seed rebounded from its low with shrinking supplies in the market. Demand for byproducts like castor meal and oil has increased, making the crush margin favorable for millers. Sunflower futures closed down for the third consecutive week. Cotton candy futures saw a marginal increase, but cotton oilseed cake futures closed down for the second week. Weaker production estimates and emerging winter season demand for cotton supported firmness in prices. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has procured close to 3 lakh bales of cotton after cotton prices dropped in various cotton-growing regions across the country, mainly in tribal and remote areas. The uncompetitiveness of Indian cotton prices makes export unviable at prevailing rates, capping excessive gains in prices. Selling pressure persisted in the Guar market for the third week.
Among spices, jeera experienced a significant decline from ₹44,700 to ₹36,000 due to speculative selling amid higher sowing area. Aggressive sowing for jeera in Gujarat and sluggish exports weighed on market sentiments. About 3.76 lakh Ha were sown under jeera as of December 4th in Gujarat, compared to 1.44 lakh Ha the previous year. Turmeric and dhaniya also closed weak under selling pressure in the physical market. Spot prices of turmeric ruled at ₹12,446 at Nizamabad market due to muted domestic demand. Spot prices of dhaniya have been almost stable with limited losses, ruling at ₹7,964 at Kota market. Sowing activities are slower so far in 2023 due to delayed sowing in Gujarat, as only 97.8 thousand Ha were sown under dhaniya as of December 4th, compared to 1.75 lakh Ha the previous year. Mentha oil futures moved upward for the third consecutive week with increased buying in the domestic market. Supplies have dropped with the fall in production in 2023, supporting firmness in prices ahead.
The U.S. economy grew at an even stronger pace than previously indicated in the third quarter, the product of better-than-expected business investment and stronger government spending, the Commerce Department reported. The US Economy expanded at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023, upwardly revised from the first estimate of 4.9% and above the forecasted figure of 5%. The second estimate of growth for the July-September quarter confirmed that the economy sharply accelerated from its 2.1% rate from April through June. It showed that the US gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years. The data shows that the US economy is “back to normal” for the first time in two decades, but the market is getting ahead of the likely pace of interest rate cuts.
The impact of US GDP on gold prices is complex and depends on various factors including inflation, interest rates, economic uncertainty, and alternative investment options.
Improved economic outlook & interest rates
Astrong and stable US GDP growth outlook can reduce economic uncertainty and dampen the need for safe haven assets like gold. This potentially decreases demand and lowers gold prices. But despite the stronger-than-expected data markets see a growing chance that a slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year. Federal Reserve officials flagged the possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming months and expected growth to slow and inflation to continue to ease, dragging yields on 10- year Treasury notes US10Y to a two-and-a-half-month low of 4.2210%.
Lower interest rates will benefit gold as a non-yielding asset as they push more liquidity out of bonds and into other markets, while uncertainty around geopolitical tensions will drive investors to seek the safety of the world’s oldest store of value, leading to an increase in price.
Recent dovish comments from Fed officials and a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data raised expectations that the U.S. interest rates have peaked and the Fed may begin to cut rates early next year. It would be supportive for gold investment demand.
US GDP & Inflation
If US GDP continues to experiences growth, it can lead to inflationary pressures which can weaken the dollar. A weaker dollar can make gold, more attractive to foreign investors, further boosting prices. Investors often turn to gold as a hedge against inflation, as its historical value tends to rise alongside rising prices. This increased demand drives up gold prices.
Currently gold prices peaked at an all-time high of $2,111.39 and surpassed the prior peak set on August 7, 2020, before receding from those substantial gains. Analysts attributed this surge to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks, which buoyed traders' confidence in the potential for an early next year cut in US interest rates. Powell's stance during his recent speech led to a decline in the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields, elevating gold's allure to holders of other currencies.
In the recent week, the Dollar Index has experienced a decline from 107 to 102.5, reflecting a shift in market sentiment concerning U.S. inflation and interest rates. The decrease is indicative of a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening measures, particularly as U.S. inflation data hovers around 3.2%. This has tempered expectations of imminent interest rate hikes, leading some investors to speculate about the possibility of future rate cuts. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield has concurrently reached 4.16%, marking a three-month low. This suggests a prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve might have concluded its tightening campaign, opening the door for potential rate cuts in the future. Economic indicators are pointing towards a moderation in the U.S. job market, with private employment growth falling below expectations, job openings declining, and all eyes on the forthcoming monthly jobs report. The USD/INR pair has been trading within a range for the past 13 months, narrowing to 83.05-83.40 levels over the last three months. Currently testing the upper end of this range, it faces a major resistance level at 83.45-83.50. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has actively worked to minimize USD/INR volatility, guarding the pair around the 83.40 zone. A break above 83.50 could signal a resumption of an upward rally, considering the prolonged dollar consolidation over the last 13 months, although the RBI's intervention may pose challenges. Moreover, the Dollar Index's support near 102.40 and resistance near 103.30- 103.40 could play a crucial role. A sustained move above this range might reignite an upward rally, potentially reaching the next resistance level of 105.00. Weakness in the euro and pound, coupled with the yen trading in an overbought zone, increases the likelihood of the dollar's upward movement, thereby supporting the possibility of USD/INR moving above 83.50 in the medium term.
USDINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.35. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 83 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.8 levels.
One can buy near 83.1 for the target of 83.7 with the stop loss of 82.8
GBPINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.3. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 60 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104 levels, while resistance is expected near 105.5 levels.
One can sell near 105 for the target of 104 with the stop loss of 105.5
EURINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.2. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.8 levels.
One can sell near 90.25 for the target of 89.25 with the stop loss of 90.75
JPYINR (DEC) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 56.55. However, the pair is in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 70 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 57.11 levels, while resistance is expected near 59 levels.
One can buy near 57.7 for the target of 58.7 with the stop loss of 57.2
Doms Industries, the stationery and art products manufacturer, has fixed the price band at Rs 750-790 per share for its public issue opening next week. This would be the first IPO this month. The Rs 1,200-crore public offer will open for subscription on December 13 and close on 15th. Bidding for the anchor book will take place for a day on December 12. The IPO is a mix of a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 350 crore by the company, and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of Rs 850 crore worth of shares by existing shareholders. Italy-based corporate promoter FILA- Fabbrica Italiana Lapised Affini SpAwill sell Rs 800-crore shares in the OFS, while promoters Sanjay Mansukhlal Rajani and Ketan Mansukhlal Rajani will offload shares worth Rs 25 crore each in the OFS. The offer includes a reservation of Rs 5 crore worth of shares for employees of the company, who will get these shares at a discount of Rs 75 each to the final issue price. Doms, the second largest player in India’s branded stationery and art products market with a market share of 12 percent by value in FY23, will spend the net fresh issue proceeds for new manufacturing facility to expand production capabilities for writing instruments, water colour pens, markers and highlighters. And the remaining issue proceeds will be kept for general corporate purposes. The Gujarat-based company that sells stationery and art products under its flagship brand DOMS said the bids can be made for a minimum of 18 equity shares and in multiples of 18 shares thereafter.
Affordable housing financer India Shelter Finance Corporation, backed by WestBridge Capital and Nexus Venture Partners, is on track to float its maiden public issue for subscription on December 13 to raise Rs 1,200 crore. The price band for the offer, which will close for bids on December 15, has been fixed at Rs 469-493 per share. The anchor book will be launched for a day on December 12. The initial public offering consists of fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 800 crore by the company, and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of Rs 400 crore worth of shares by existing shareholders. Catalyst Trusteeship Limited (as trustee of Madison India Opportunities Trust Fund), and Nexus Ventures III are the biggest selling shareholders in the OFS, offloading Rs 171.3 crore and Rs 142.5 crore shares. Catalyst Trusteeship Limited (as trustee of MICP Trust), Madison India Opportunities IV, and MIO Starrock are other selling shareholders in the OFS. Aravali Investment Holdings, WestBridge Crossover Fund LLC and Anil Mehta are the promoters of the company, holding 31.2 percent, 23.8 percent and 1.7 percent shares, in India Shelter. Among public shareholders, Nexus Ventures III and Nexus Opportunity Fund II together hold 28.2 percent stake in the firm. Catalyst Trusteeship (acting as Trustee for Madison Opportunities Trust Fund) has 5.2 percent stake and MIO Starrock 4.9 percent.
Mumbai-based Suraj Estate Developers has decided to launch its initial public offering on December 18, to raise Rs 400 crore. This would be the second offering opening this month after Doms Industries. The anchor book of the issue will be opened for a day on December 15, while the offer will close on third day, i.e. December 20. The public offer comprises only a fresh issue of shares worth Rs 400 crore by the company and there is no offer-for-sale component. The real estate developer will make use of net fresh issue proceeds for repaying debts amounting to Rs 285 crore, and Rs 35 crore will be utilised for acquisition of land or land development rights in Mumbai Metropolitan Region. The remaining fresh issue money will be set aside for general corporate purposes. It has total outstanding consolidated borrowing at Rs 568.83 crore, as of September 2023. The company intends to utilise the entire amount kept for the acquisition of land or land development rights during FY24-FY25. "We are evaluating land and land development opportunities in Bandra (west) region to cater to the demand in the residential luxury segment offering 2, 3 and 4 BHK apartments," Suraj Estate said. The company further said, "In the Dadar (west) and Mahim (west) micro market of the South Central Mumbai, we are evaluating land and land development opportunities to cater to the demand in the residential value luxury segment offering 1 and 2 BHK apartments." Since 1986, the firm has completed 42 projects with a developed area of more than 1.05 million square feet in the South-Central Mumbai region. In addition, it has 13 ongoing projects with a developable area of 2.03 million square feet and saleable carpet area 0.6 million square feet and 16 upcoming projects with an estimated carpet area of 0.7 million square feet.
AMIC Forging stock made a bumper debut, listing at an 99 percent premium to the IPO price on December 6. The stock opened at Rs 251.35 against the issue price of Rs 126 on BSE SME. The issue had received a strong response from investors. The offer was subscribed 289 times, the retail portion was booked 273 times, non-institutional investors bid 589 times and qualified institutional buyers picked 91 times the allotted quota. AMIC Forging’s public offer opened for subscription on November 29 and closed on December 1. The price band for the issue was fixed at Rs 121-126 per share. Through the IPO, the company raised Rs 34.8 crore. The offer was entirely a fresh issue of 27.62 lakh shares. The company will use the net proceeds from the issue to set up of manufacturing facility working capital requirements and general corporate purposes. Gretex Corporate Services was the book-running lead manager, Bigshare Services was the registrar and Gretex Share Broking was the market maker for the issue. AMIC Forging Limited, previously known as Kali Mata Forging Private Limited, manufactures forged components catering to various industries. The company manufactures precision machined components such as Rounds, Shafts, Blanks, and complete finished engineering, spare parts e.g. Gear coupling, Hub, Round, Flange etc. These products are mainly manufactured in carbon steel, alloy steel, stainless steel, Nickel, and Tools Alloys.
Marinetrans India stock made a decent debut, listing at a 15.38 percent premium over the IPO price on December 8. The stock opened at Rs 30 against the issue price of Rs 26 on the NSE SME platform. However, within minutes, the stock slipped to Rs 28.5. The public offer was subscribed 33 times and the retail portion was booked 47 times the allotted quota. The IPO opened for subscription on November 30 and closed on December 5. The price for the issue was fixed at Rs 26 per share. Through the IPO, the company raised Rs 10.92 crore. The offer was entirely a fresh issue of 42 lakh shares. The company will use the net proceeds from the issue to fund working capital requirements and general corporate purposes. Swaraj Shares and Securities was the book-running lead manager, Skyline Financial Services was the registrar, and Nnm Securities was the market-maker for the issue. Marinetrans is engaged in the business of sea freight forwarding and provides transport management and freight-related services to its customers, including Freight Forwarding, which covers both sea and air freight. The company began as a freight forwarder and later expanded to offer Door-to-Door Delivery and 3PL services for the logistics industry through informal agreements with third-party service providers.
Deepak Chemtex stock made an impressive debut, listing at an 99.5 percent premium to the IPO price on December 6. The stock opened at Rs 159.60 against the issue price of Rs 80 on BSE SME. The issue had received a strong response from investors The offer was subscribed 403 times, the retail portion was booked 475 times, non-institutional investors bid 642 times and qualified institutional buyers picked 96 times the allotted quota. Deepak Chemtex’s public offer opened for subscription on November 29 and closed on December 1. The price band for the issue was fixed at Rs 76-80 per share. Through the IPO, the company raised Rs 23.04 crore. The offer was entirely a fresh issue of 28.8 lakh shares. The company will use the net proceeds from the issue to fund capital expenditure towards the installation of plant and machinery, investment in subsidiary DCPL Speciality Chemicals and general corporate purposes. Hem Securities was the book-running lead manager, Bigshare Services was the registrar and Hem Finlease was the market maker for the issue. Deepak Chemtex manufactures colourants for applications in food, drug, cosmetics, cleaning compounds, agriculture, and other industries. The company’s manufacturing unit is located in Ratnagiri District in Maharashtra with a production capacity of over 1200 metric tonnes per annum.
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Axis Mutual Fund has announced withdrawal of the NFO of Axis US Treasury Dynamic Bond ETF Fund of Fund. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme was scheduled to open for subscription on December 5 and close on December 11. Axis US Treasury Dynamic Bond ETF FoF, an open-ended fund of fund investing in ETFs wherein the underlying investments comprise of US treasury securities across duration. The fund house informed about not launching the new fund plan through a notice-cum-addendum. There were three NFOs open for subscription this week. DSP Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50 Index Fund, Motilal Oswal Small Cap Fund, and Samco Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund are open for subscription this week. DSP Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50 Index Fund is an open-ended scheme replicating/ tracking Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50 Index. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on December 15. Motilal Oswal Small Cap Fund is an open-ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on December 19. Samco Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund is an open-ended dynamic asset allocation fund. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on December 21.
DSP Mutual Fund announced the launch of DSP Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50 Index Fund (DSP NSQ50IF), an open-ended scheme tracking Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50 Index. The New Fund Offer of DSP NSQ50IF is open for subscription, and it will close on December 15. The objective of the fund is to generate returns that are commensurate with the performance of the Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50 Index, subject to tracking error. There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be achieved.
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