Global stock were on a rollercoaster last week. Investors struggled with conflicting news: higher inflation than expected in the US, bets on an early rate cut by the Fed, and jitters after the US airstrikes in Yemen. US consumer prices climbed as rents kept rising, but markets found hope in potential Fed rate cuts as early as March. The airstrikes, however, added uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US budget gap widened, further pressuring the economy. European markets mostly retreated ahead of crucial US inflation data, despite positive French industrial production. The German economy, Europe's biggest, was the weakest among its large eurozone peers last year, hit hard by high energy costs, shaky global orders and record-high interest rates. German industrial production fell for the sixth month in a row in November, highlighting the depth of the slowdown. Expectations of an ultra-loose monetary policy from the Bank of Japan lifted the Nikkei, with hopes for more stimulus after a devastating earthquake. However, economic weakness remained as the current account shrank further. On the China front, Chinese stocks bounced back from multi-year lows after a slight uptick in consumer inflation. However, producer prices continued to fall, raising concerns about the overall economic health.
Back home, Domestic market moved higher driven by information technology stocks which soared after two industry majors — Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys — released their December quarter results that rekindled hopes of improved earnings in the coming quarters amid strong new deal wins. Expectations of interest rate cuts also continued to fuel hopes of an easing macro environment for the sector, which is expected to further support its recovery from the earnings downgrade cycle. Besides, other sectors, such as Energy, Automobile and public sector banks were top gainers. The domestic currency, Rupee, broke its six-day gaining streak despite positive equity market sentiment, as foreign funds outflow dented sentiments. While the overall gross domestic product exhibits a robust growth of 7.3%, the agriculture and allied services sector, employing over half the population, has expanded by a modest 1.8%, according to the National Statistical Organization (NSO). Services, growing at an overall rate of 7.7%, reveal a nuanced scenario, with trade, hotel s , transport, and communication—sectors with significant employment—seeing only a 6.3% growth, indicating a concentration of growth among the selected few. Markets are likely to be significantly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings. Going forward, domestic market would depend on global factors and third quarter corporate earnings as well.
On the commodity market front, the CRB index saw a modest recovery, closing near 265. The dollar index maintained its position within a range after a significant surge in the previous week. Gold prices faced a second consecutive week of decline but managed to close above 62000 levels. Silver, trailing behind gold, continued its downward trend for the third week. The expected trading ranges for gold and silver are 60500-64000 and 71500-75000 levels, respectively. Crude oil exhibited consolidation with limited upward movement, while natural gas futures ended the week with an anticipated increase, potentially reaching up to 305. Crude oil is anticipated to trade within the range of 6000-6350. Base metals remained range-bound amid mixed news. Key economic indicators scheduled for the week, including Germany's yearly GDP and inflation rate, the UK's unemployment rate, Germany and Euro Area's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Canada and the UK's inflation and core inflation, Euro Area's core inflation, and various US data such as retail sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiments, and building permits, will play a crucial role in guiding commodity prices.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company has completely revamped product and technology roadmap. It is widening its ambit to the broader mobility landscape. The diversified revenue, with increasing contribution of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) auger well for the company. The strong order book and plans to develop products for a mobility future, i.e EPIC, indicates sustained business growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 738 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BVx of 13.52x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.54.62.
The company is doing well and has long track record. It has established strong presence in the domestic formulation market with strong formulation portfolio and also gradually increasing its presence in the overseas markets, where the majority of contribution is coming from US and demonstrated a strong operational performance in the US market led by increasing product approvals and new product launches. The management of the company expects the momentum would improve further with the efforts towards cost optimization and process improvement which would give steadily growth to the financials. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1029 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/Bv of 3.87x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.265.80.
The stock closed at Rs.325 on 12th January, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.251 on 26thApril, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.345.80 on 12th January, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 302.
The Stock has been consistently maintaining its bearish trend since 2022 and can be seen trading with series of lower bottom pattern formation on weekly charts. From last almost one year, this stock has been consolidating in broader range of 250-320 and had been sustaining below its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts. Last week, the stock has shown some recovery from its lows as prices seen giving a renewed momentum above its 200 days exponential moving average once again with a fresh breakout above its long term bearish channel as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 320-325 levels for the upside target of 385-390 levels with SL below 290 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.1112.20 on 12th January, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.912 on 02nd February, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1141 on 05th January 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1013.
The stock can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern on weekly charts. Last week a fresh breakout had been observed above the symmetrical triangle pattern on broader charts as stock marked its 52 week high of 1141 as well. The breakout was observed with sudden spike in average volumes and positive divergences on secondary oscillators as well. We expect the momentum is likely to continue towards more upside as price volume action, suggest a fresh round of buying into the stock. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1110-1115 levels for the upside target of 1300-1310 levels with SL below 1000 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
Charts by Reliable software
Nifty experienced a weekly gain around 0.8%, reaching a new record high during Friday's session. In contrast, Banknifty witnessed profit booking, leading to a decline of nearly 0.9% on weekly basis. In the last week, IT, realty and oil & gas sectors remained major gainers whereas, profit booking was noted in the FMCG, financial services and banking stocks. In the Nifty options segment, the highest call open interest is held at 22300 strike followed by 21900 strike whereas on the put side, the highest open interest is at the 21,700 and 21,800 strike which was tested last week. For BankNifty, the highest call open interest is at the 48,000 strike, while the highest put open interest is at the 47,500 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 12.34%, while put options concluded at 13.07%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 12.77%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.42 for the week. The immediate support for the Nifty lies in the range of 21600-21500 zone while on higher side 22200-22300 zone would act as an immediate hurdle for the markets We expect that bullish momentum is likely to continue in upcoming week as well with some intraday volatility. However otational buying can also be seen as traders seen shifting to sectorial moves once again.
|
|
|
|
|
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices remained down with witnessing increased selling pressure. Demand for turmeric is low, with millers avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of the commencement of the new crop in the coming weeks. This cautious approach from buyers might be contributing to the weakening of prices. The export scenario for turmeric is not favorable, with a decrease in export quantity compared to the same period in the previous year. Export enquiries are reportedly bleak, possibly indicating challenges in the international market or competition with other producing countries. India exported about 10.13 thousand tonnes of turmeric in Oct’23 as compared to 11.17 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. The overall production of turmeric is expected to be lower in the current year (2024-25) compared to the previous year (2023-24). This is attributed to a decrease in acreages under turmeric cultivation, which is estimated to result in an 8%-10% year-on-year fall in production. Despite the current weaknesses, the downward trend in prices is expected to be limited due to weaker production prospects and tighter carry forward stocks. The forecasted trading range for turmeric prices in the coming weeks is between 12,300 - 13800.
Jeera futures traded on weaker note primarily driven by improved crop prospects for the upcoming season. This suggests that market participants are actively offloading their positions due to expectations of a bumper crop, leading to increased supplies. The market is experiencing higher supplies as stockists sell off their positions in anticipation of a significant rise in overall production. The expected increase in production for the year 2024-25 is noted to be around 30% year-on-year, with a substantial rise in cultivation area. Losses are likely to be limited as Jeera prices have become competitive at the prevailing rates, contributing to a rise in export pace in December 2023. This competitiveness in prices might be a response to the anticipation of a larger crop and could be aimed at maintaining market share in the export market. Short covering can be seen anytime in Jeera that may push up the prices whereas major trend is likely to remain down. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 21280-33400.
Dhaniya prices tumbled due to a surge in supplies, driven by improved crop conditions in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, supported by favorable weather. Stockists are responding to this by selling off their positions, contributing to the current downward trend. Downfall in dhaniya is likely to be limited due to that weaker production prospects forthe upcoming season. Sowing activities forthe year 2023 have been slower compared to the previous year as total area under dhaniya has been down by 33%Y-o-Yso farin year 2024. Robust export demand is expected to provide supportto prices. India exported 3.9 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in October 2023, a significant increase from the 2.2 thousand tonnes exported in the same month the previous year. Overall exports during April-October 2023 were reported at 70.12 thousand tonnes,reflecting a substantial YoY increase of 271%. The analysis suggests that dhaniya prices are expected to trade in the range of 7300-8200.
Gold prices experienced a second consecutive week of decline, driven by a shift in trader sentiment as expectations for early interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve diminished. The most recent data revealed a 3.4% annual and 0.3% monthly increase in US consumer prices for December, surpassing earlier forecasts of 3.2% and 0.2%, respectively. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed that the higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures suggested it was premature to consider rate cuts, while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted the data provided limited clarity on the inflation trajectory. Core inflation in the US, excluding volatile food and energy prices, eased slightly to 3.9% in December from 4% in November, surpassing expectations for a 3.8% rise, according to Marketwatch. The headline consumer price index also exceeded expectations with a 0.3% increase. Despite this, financial markets are still pricing in a roughly 70% probability of the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts in March, compared to the previously perceived 90% chance. Some recovery in gold prices occurred following news of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where a U.S.-led coalition executed more than a dozen strikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen. The sudden escalation of conflict has bolstered gold's status as a safe-haven asset. Looking ahead, COMEX gold prices are anticipated to fluctuate within the $1990-$2060 range, while silver may trade between $21.900 and $23.400. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to hover between 61000 and 62900, displaying movement in both directions. Similarly, silver may trade in the range of 70000-73900 levels during the upcoming week.
Crude oil prices experienced a week of selling, but a recovery was observed in the last two days following United States and British airstrikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen. The strikes were in response to the Iran-backed group's attacks on shipping in the Red Sea since late last year. This marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East. Witnesses in Yemen reported explosions across the country. U.S. President Joe Biden stated that the "targeted strikes" sent a clear message that the U.S. and its allies will not tolerate attacks on personnel or threats to freedom of navigation. Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands supported the operation. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted international commerce on the crucial route between Europe and Asia, which constitutes about 15% of global shipping traffic. Looking ahead, crude oil prices are expected to witness higher volatility in the upcoming week, with potential support near 5900 and resistance near 6200. Meanwhile, natural gas prices recorded their second consecutive weekly gains after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected draw of -140 bcf in nat-gas inventories. However, prices retreated slightly as weather forecasts shifted warmer for the eastern half and central part of the U.S. from Jan 16-20. Prices soared to a 2-month high on the outlook for below-normal U.S. temperatures to boost heating demand for nat-gas. NatGasWeather predicts that an arctic air mass will "advance aggressively across the U.S. this weekend and next week," bringing cold weather across the northern part of the U.S. and the South, including Texas. In the coming week, natural gas prices may continue to see buying interest from lower levels, finding support near 245 and facing resistance near 290.
Base metals may trade sideways with bullish bias on weaker dollar as investors weighed higher-than-expected U.S. consumer price inflation against market bets thatthe Federal Reserve will cutrates as soon as March. China's move to supportthe yuan, that boost the purchasing power of buyers in the world's top metals consumer, may also support the counter. China’s central bank pushed back against recent yuan weakness by setting its daily reference rate for the managed currency atthe widest gap to estimates since November. However factory-gate prices in top metals consumer China extended their prolonged slide, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in an economy struggling to mount a solid recovery, which darkened the prospects for metals demand. Copper may trade in the range of 710- 730 levels. China's copper imports declined 6.3% in 2023, customs data showed, as domestic production increased and a firmer U.S. dollar raised import costs. Zinc can trade in range of 218-236 levels. Domestic refined zinc production in China is anticipated to decrease to 572,400 metric tons in January 2024 from the December figure of 590,900 metric tons. Lead can move in the range of 179-186 levels. China's secondary or recycled lead production, accounting for half of total output, shrank to 342,000 tons in December, down 23% from the previous month, according to domestic pricing agency SMM. Aluminium can trade in the range of 198-210. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers in January to March was set at $90 per metric ton, down 7% from the previous quarter, as demand remained sluggish. Steel long (Feb) is likely to trade in the range of 42900-44500 levels with positive bias.
Cotton prices extended its losses due to subdued exports. Muted demand of yarn and shrinking profit margin for spinning mills impacted overall demand of cotton adversely. Harvesting activities have reached in its last stage and about 107.3 lakh bales arrived till 10th Jan’24 as compared to 115 lakh bales reported till Jan’23. Arrival pace has been similar to last year so far but likely to be slower down due weaker production estimates in year 2023-24. Cotton production is likely to drop by 2% Y-o-Y in marketing year 2023-24 due to lower acreages under cotton. Cotton acreages shrunk to 123.8 lakh Ha in year 2023-24 compared to 129.27 lakh Ha of previous year due to adverse weather condition during sowing progress. Cotton production is estimated to be lowestin last 15 years in year 2023-24 that willreflect as supply tightness. Cotton Corporation of India procured about 2.14 lakh bales so far and expected to pick up in coming weeks that is likely to support firmness in prices. Cotton MCX prices are likely to trade in range of 54500-58000. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1500-1600 level. Cocud prices are expected to trade higher in wake of fall in supplies due to lower production estimates of cotton. Cocud prices are likely to trade in range of 2600-2850.
Guar seed futures are likely to trade mixed to higher with shrinking supplies in the market. Arrivals have dropped with recent fall in prices and this slowdown is likely to encourage millers to purchase at current rates, supported by improved crush margins. Anticipation of rising seasonal demand for guar meal is expected to maintain higher crushing demand for guar seed in the upcoming weeks. India has exported about 16.9 thousand tonnes of guar meal in Oct’23 as compared to 9 thousand tonnes of previous year, higher by 87% Y-o-Y. The overall production of guar seed has reportedly decreased by 11%-13% Year-on-Year in the year 2023- 24. This reduction in production has resulted in tighter inventory levels for millers. Reports of an increase in the export of guar gum are likely to support prices. India exported about 23 thousand tonnes of guar gum, compared to 21.5 thousand tonnes in the previous year. Guar seed prices are expected to find support around 5200, with resistance seen at 5800. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to find support around 10000, with resistance observed at 11000.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade higher with increased buying in domestic market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil and menthol is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 7.3 thousand tonnes of menthol during Apr23-Oct’23 as compared to 8.6 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 15% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil prices are likely to find support near 900 and resistance can be seen at 960 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with reduced supplies in the market. Arrivals have dropped as farmers are reluctant to release their stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. India exported about 213 thousand tonnes of castor meal during Apr’23-Oct’23 as compared to 189 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5400-6000 levels.
It closed at Rs.717.00 on 11th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.723.58. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.140. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.715 for a target of Rs.740 with the stop loss of 700.
It closed at Rs.265.50 on 11th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.234.87. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.848. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.250 for a target of Rs.290 with the stop loss of 230.
It closed at Rs.13056.00 on 11th Jan 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.13354.088 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 32.505. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.13100 for a target of Rs.12000 with the stop loss of 13650.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The CRB showed a slight recovery, closing near 265 levels. The dollar index remained within a range following a significant increase in the previous week. The dollar held steady as investors weighed higher-than-expected U.S. consumer price inflation against market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as soon as March. U.S. consumer prices increased in December as rents maintained their upward trend, edging 0.3% higher for the month and up an annual 3.4%, versus economists' forecast in a Reuter’s poll for a 0.2% gain and 3.2% rise, respectively. Gold prices experienced a second consecutive week of decline but managed to close above 62000. Silver performed weaker than gold, extending its downward trend for the third week. Crude oil displayed consolidation with minimal upward movement, while natural gas futures concluded the week with the anticipated increase. Crude oil closed up marginally despite average demand as United States and Britain carried out strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen in retaliation for attacks by the Iran backed group on shipping in the Red Sea starting from late last year. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted international commerce on the key route between Europe and Asia, which accounts for about 15% of the world's shipping traffic. Shipping giant Maersk said that it will divert all vessels away from the Red Sea for the foreseeable future, warning customers of further disruptions. The U.S.-led attacks also closely follow Iran's seizure onThursday of a tanker with Iraqi crude destined forTurkey in retaliation forthe confiscation last year ofthe same vessel and its oil by the United States. Natural gas prices rose due to covering of speculator short position amplified the move higher, front month futures gains appear overextended here, even Storm Uri in Feb21 ultimately failed to sustain storm-induced price increases. Base metals were range-bound due to mixed news. End-users in China have slowed down copper consumption in January, a traditionally weak demand period, and the premium to buy copperin the spot marketremained high amid thin stocks.
The agricultural commodities market witnessed a bearish week. Jeera, in particular, faced persistent downward movement in the spice category. Supplies increased as stockists offloaded their positions in wake of bumper crop prospects ahead that led to rise in monthly arrivals. Overall production is expected to be increased by 30% Y-o-Y in year 2024-25 with significant rise in area. Turmeric prices dropped below the 13000 levels. Dhaniya futures marked the fourth consecutive negative week, closing below 7000. Higher ending stocks and sluggish buying by millers and stockists weighed on market sentiments. New crop is likely to commence in Marthat will keep buyers away from bulk buying. Cotton oil seed cake futures experienced a sharp decline over seven weeks due to lackluster trade, slipping from 3000 levels to 2670. Castor seed prices declined for the third consecutive week, closing around 5600 due to demand concerns amid muted export enquires of castor oil. However,the guar counter showed signs ofrecovery, ending the week in positive territory,in the wake oflower production estimates.Overall,the production of guar seed has seen a decline of 11%-13% year-on-year in the year 2022-23, contributing to tighter inventory levels for millers. Cotton continued its bearish trend that has persisted for several weeks. Cotton production may decline by around 8 per cent to 294.10 lakh bales in the 2023-24 seasons according to the CottonAssociation ofIndia (CAI).
According to data released by the Agriculture Ministry on January 05, 2024, the current Rabi season’s total sowing reached up to 654.89 lakh hectares (lh), nearly 1.23 per cent lower than last year’s 663.07 lh. Though the high priority crops such as oilseeds and coarse cereals maintained the pace of sowing with their acreages exceeded from the previous year's sown areas, the dip is mainly reported in popular Rabi crops, wheat and pulses, leading to overall decline in acreage. The area under wheat, main Rabi crops, almost touched 331.70 lh, which is 0.19 lh less than last year.
However, higher area coverage has been reported from Uttar Pradesh by 4.27 lh. But, Rajasthan has reported a drop of 1.16 lh, Madhya Pradesh have reported 0.66 lh and Maharashtra have reported 2.02 lh dip in wheat acreage. Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana and Karnataka have also reported a dip in wheat acreage. Sowing of wheat with late varieties will go upto first weck of January. Some States report the area coverage from field till the end of January.
The pulses were nearly 5 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year, the data showed. Total area coverage in Pulses is 148.18 lakh ha compare to 156.15 lakh ha in last Rabi season. The less acreage of Pulses can also be attributed to late harvesting of kharif crops including paddy and crop diversification.
In coarse cereals, the sowing area has reached 49.82 lh, higher by 1.5 lh from the last Rabi season. Jowar acreage has been reported at 22 lh, higher 2.2 per cent from 21.52 lh and maize acreage up by 1.2 per cent at 18.99 lh from 18.76 lh year-ago. Barley sowing, too, is Up by almost 1 per cent at 8.09 lh from 7.40 lh. In the last few years, the government has been promoting crop diversification towards oilseeds, pulses and millets to enhance food security, increase farmers' income, and reduce dependence on imports. More than normal area coverage has already been achieved in oilseeds, particularly in Rapeseed & Mustard.
Soil moisture during November 26-30 was less than average of the past 8 years in eastern parts of Rajasthan, Karnataka, Rayalseema region of Andhra Pradesh, north western part of Bihar, areas in Maharashtra close to Karnataka. However, improvement in soil moisture in parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra was observed from the previous week.
The decline in sown areas, having potential to impact the overall foodgrain output in 2023-24, can be attributed to below normal rainfall this year as it led to moisture deficit in soil and less water storage in reservoirs for winter crops. The government had set 114 million tonne as the target for wheat output this year.
The rupee has surged from 83.34 since the beginning of the year and eventually surpassing 82.90 aided by expectations thatthe Fed is concluding its rate hike cycle, reaching a 22-year high post-December U.S CPI numbers, with the core CPI increasing marginally by 10 bps against estimates to 3.9% in 12 months. Additionally the up move was partially linked to dollar inflows notably from the debt side as well as external commercial borrowings. Additionally the USDINR pair stands out in risk-on sentiment due to stability and low volatility.The rupee, as the second least volatile currency in the FX universe after theHong Kong dollar, becomes attractive for dollar export hedging and carry trades when the dollar is on a downward trend globally. Potential appreciation up to 82.40 in the rupee may not aggressively trigger RBI intervention. However, active accumulation of dollar reserves by the central bank is expected to persist to cap the rally in the rupee as well. Globally,the euro, yen, and pound are consistently trading higher as expectations for U.S. easing this year have increased to 151 bps. The likelihood of a rate cut in March has risen to 71%, with expected easing, initially priced outin early January, now being factored back in. Consequently, the dollar index, which climbed from 100.61 to 103.10, is anticipated to drop in the coming days.In terms ofthe rupee, we believe EURINR andGBPINR have room to rally further, potentially reaching 92.30 and 106.50,respectively. The key focus for the next week will be on the UK December CPI release on Wednesday,influencing the up move in the sterling/rupee pair.
USDINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.22. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 36 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.7 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.3 levels.
One can buy near 83 for the target of 83.6 with the stop loss of 82.7
GBPINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.55. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 55 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 105 levels, while resistance is expected near 106.7 levels.
One can buy near 105.7 for the target of 106.7 with the stop loss of 105.2
EURINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 91.18. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 90.3 levels, while resistance is expected near 92 levels.
One can buy near 90.8 for the target of 91.8 with the stop loss of 90.3
JPYINR (JAN) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 57.92. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 56.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 58.2 levels.
One can sell near 57.6 for the target of 56.6 with the stop loss of 58.1
(2/5)
|
|
The object of the Offer is to achieve the benefits of listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges. The company expects that listing the Equity Shares will enhance its visibility and brand and provide liquidity to its existing Shareholders. The listing will also provide a public market for the Equity Shares in India. The company will not receive any proceeds from the Offer. All proceeds from the Offer will go to the Selling Shareholders, in proportion to the Equity Shares offered by them in the Offer for Sale.
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.418, EPS and P/E based on TTM are Rs.9.13 and 45.77 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 397, P/E multiple is 43.47. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.418, book value and P/B are Rs. 605.06 and 0.69 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 397 P/B multiple is 0.66. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital.
Medi Assist Healthcare Services Limited is a health-tech and insurance-tech company that manages health benefits for employers, retail members, and public health schemes. Medi Assist Healthcare collaborated with 36 insurance companies in India and worldwide as of March 31, 2023. The revenue generated by the retail portfolio for the financial years 2021, 2022, and 2023 was Rs.49.47 crore, Rs.57.98 crore, and Rs.57.03 crore, respectively. These amounts constituted 15.33%, 14.72%, and 11.29% of the total revenue from customer contracts for the same years. As of March 31, 2023, the company has established a healthcare network across India, with over 14,000 hospitals in 967 cities and towns in 32 states and union territories. During FY2023, the company settled 5.27 million claims, comprising 2.44 million in-patient claims and 2.83 million out-patient claims.
Scalable Technology-Enabled Infrastructure: Medi Assist's success boils down to its technology. Powerful, custom-built platforms handle every aspect of operations, engaging all stakeholders: insured members, hospitals, insurers, brokers, and group accounts. This scalable, user-friendly infrastructure prioritizes security and data quality, enabling efficient business objectives and transformative outcomes. By leveraging data and adding new touch-points, Medi Assist delivers enhanced member experiences with increased efficiency.
Offerings for Healthcare Providers: Medi Assist Healthcare has deep integration with several hospital portals and during the Financial Year 2023 and the six months ended September 30, 2023, 8,426 and 7,971 hospitals submitted their claims to online, respectively.
Longstanding Relationships with a Majority of Insurance Companies: Medi Assist is a trusted partner in the health insurance ecosystem, primarily generating revenue from longstanding insurance clients. The average partnership with PSU companies exceeds 20 years, and with non-PSU companies, it's a solid 9 years as of September 2023. Its share of retail and group benefits administration premiums under management from non-PSU insurance companies has increased from 14.65% in the Financial Year 2021 to 21.26% in the Financial Year 2023 and 24.33% during the six months ended September 30, 2023.
Diversified base of Group Accounts with Longstanding Relationships: Medi Assist is the go-to health insurance partner for over 9,500 Indian companies, managing a staggering Rs. 128 billion in group health premiums. Its long-standing relationships and dedication to service have propelled them to the top of the market, with a 26% share in the overall group health insurance segment. This dominance is further solidified by its growing market share among benefit administrators, reaching 42% in 2023.
Maintain its Leadership Position among Group Accounts: To strengthen its corporate leadership, the Company prioritizes employee satisfaction through technology-driven experience enhancements. It also deepens relationships with group accounts by expanding services and controlling medical inflation, thereby lowering insurance premiums. Additionally, it targets key accounts from leading brokers, including online players, to bolster market share.
Continue Pursuing Inorganic Growth Opportunities: To broaden its reach and services, the company will target acquisitions for expanded service offerings and market share dominance, entry into new geographical markets & deeper partnerships with insurers, employers, and distributors. Its proven track record demonstrates successful integrations, achieved growth goals, and realized synergies from past acquisitions. Small benefits administrators and captive claims processing teams are key targets for enhancing group account relationships.
To Increase its share in the Retail Segment: The company's client portfolio in the retail segment surged by 10% from March 2021 to September 2023, showcasing its commitment to expansion. Retail premium under management saw an impressive 60% jump between FY 2021 and FY 2023, further solidifying its market position. To note, , its premium under management for retail portfolio has grown from Rs. 1097.57 crore in Financial Year 2021 to Rs. 1756.78 crore in Financial Year 2023 and Rs. 1126.58 crore during the six months ended September 30, 2023. The company is actively seeking to secure additional partnerships in this segment to further expand its market presence and increase its share of business in the retail and group segments.
The company is the leader in the insurance TPA sector with a niche focus and offer advanced technology-powered services. Management is confident of financial stabilization within two to three quarters after accounting for settlements. Its historical cash flow from operations, investments, and financing has been negative, and this may continue in the future. Its financial performance relies heavily on timely invoicing and receivables collection. This investment is best suited for committed long-term investors who can ride out potential cash flow challenges.
|
Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) witnessed a significant influx of Rs 2,920 crore in 2023, marking a six-fold surge compared to the previous year, as investors sought the safety of this traditional safe haven amid higher inflation, subsequent hike in interest rates and geopolitical events. Additionally, the asset base of gold ETFs and investors' accounts experienced growth in the year, latest data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. According to the data, Gold ETFs witnessed an inflow of Rs 2,920 crore in the entire 2023, which was way higher than the Rs 459 crore inflow seen in 2022. Notably, the segment attracted Rs 1,028 crore in August 2023, which was the highest inflow in 16 months. The attractiveness of gold as a safe haven and a hedge against inflation enhanced significantly during the year. Investors turned to this traditional safe haven amid rising inflation, subsequent interest rate hikes, and geopolitical events, seeking a secure investment option.
Old Bridge Mutual Fund launched its maiden mutual fund scheme which will open for subscription from January 17 to 19. The fund house backed by Old Bridge Capital Management Private Limited announced the new fund offer (NFO) -- Old Bridge Focused Equity Fund, an open-ended equity scheme investing in up to 30 stocks. The stocks in the portfolio would be market cap-agnostic and sector-agnostic to participate in their growth, Old Bridge Mutual Fund CIO Kenneth Andrade said here. Investors can participate through a systematic investment plan with a minimum investment of Rs 2,500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. For lump-sum investments, the minimum amount is Rs 5,000. The scheme will be benchmarked against the S&P BSE 500 TRI. Andrade said the fund with a multi-cap approach is designed to identify businesses with potential to compound capital over the long term, focusing on companies with enduring economic moats that has long-term franchise value and continued growth potential. The fund will be managed by Andrade along with seasoned investment professional Tarang Agrawal. "The fund's strategy is aligned with our investment philosophy focusing on early-cycle businesses with strong leadership and growth potential," he said.
Bandhan Mutual Fund has announced the launch ofthe Bandhan MultiAssetAllocation Fund, an open-ended scheme that enables investment across diverse asset classes including Indian equities, international equities, arbitrage, fixed income, gold and silver. Studies have established that asset allocation, rather than security selection or market timing, is the dominant factor impacting return variability, the fund house said. The new fund will adopt a multi-asset allocation strategy to optimize reward and risk by diversifying investments across various asset classes, each offering unique advantages in terms of growth, stability, and inflation protection. The New Fund Offer (NFO) is set to open on Wednesday, 10 January, and will close on 24 January. Investments in the Bandhan Multi Asset Allocation Fund can be made through licensed mutualfund distributors,investment advisors, online platforms, or directly atthe website of bandhan mutualfund.
DSP Mutual Fund announced the launch of DSP Multicap Fund, an open-ended scheme that offers investors the flexibility to invest across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks, investment styles and industries. With dedicated market cap exposure to mid and small caps along with timely rebalancing, the multicap strategy offers investors better diversification and improvement in performance compared to the Nifty 500, said a press release. Despite investing in the same set of stocks, the multicap strategy has outperformed the Nifty 500 almost 8 out of 10 times over 5 year rolling periods between April 1, 2005 and November 30th, 2023, the fund house said. The asset allocation of the scheme can be a minimum of 75% and a maximum of 100% in equity and equity related securities of which large, mid, and small caps can account for a minimum of 25% exposure and a maximum of 50%. The scheme can also have up to 25% exposure to equity and equity related overseas securities and Debt & Money Market Instruments and up to 10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs. The New Fund Offer for DSP Multicap Fund will open for subscription on January 8, and will close on January 22. “We believe, in the long-term, equity funds earn more than inflation and help us in growing our purchasing power. Equity investing is getting popular in recent times via direct stock investing, mostly in small caps. We also believe intermittently markets get exuberantly priced, especially currently in small & mid caps. These are times to be prudent. Believe in the long term but play defense in the near term. That’s where we would encourage the addition of 50% large caps – some global stocks too as there are opportunities in these two buckets and investors are ignoring these pockets,” said Kalpen Parekh, MD & CEO, DSP Mutual Fund.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
