In the weak gone by, global stock market continued to witness volatile movement as credit rating agency Moody's cut its ratings on a handful of small and mid-sized banks of the US, and put several of the country's biggest lenders under review for potential downgrade. However, market tried to find some solace after data showed that US consumer price inflation moderated in July, bolstering hopes that the US Federal Reserve is near the end of its ratehiking cycle. Inflation data from the US indicate that the soft landing narrative is intact. The Fed is likely to pause in September. Heightening trade worries, President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order that prohibits some new U.S. investment in China in sensitive technologies such as computer chips and requires government notification for investment in other tech sectors. On the flip side, European enterprises are accelerating their investment in China amid dim economic prospects at home. Europe's manufacturing downturn has been worsening and its services sector came close to stalling in July, as shown in the latest economic data. Another data from China showed that the Chinese economy slipped into deflation in July and increased concerns about consumer demand from the world’s second largest economy.
Back at home, domestic markets too witnessed volatile movement tracking global markets. Also Inflation concerns have resurfaced in the domestic market after the RBI elevated their CPI forecast by 30 basis points to 5.4%, thereby increasing the chances of a protracted rate cut trajectory. While the RBI’s decision to leave the key lending rate unchanged in the recent meeting was positive and on expected lines, the fact that the central bank maintained a hawkish stance to tackle inflation seems to have worried investors. Another factor that weighed on market sentiments is the RBI’s decision to impose an incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of 10 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) between May 19, 2023, and July 28, 2023. India's manufacturing activity remained robust, although it marginally moderated for the second consecutive month in July. On the other hand, the domestic service PMI exceeded market expectations, reaching a 13-year high, driven by a rise in new orders, particularly in international sales. Going forward, market will continue to take direction from both global and domestic factors.
On the commodity market front, the CRB rebounded from previous week's lows, with the rally led by strong performance in the energy sector and other commodities. However, bullion prices faced downward pressure due to the strengthening dollar index. Silver lagged behind gold, which experienced its fourth consecutive week of negative trading. Gold and Silver can trade in a range of 58200- 59200 and 68000-71000 respectively. Energy Counter can see a rebound from downside. Natural Gas looks stronger, possibly reaching 260 on MCX. Base Metals can trade in range on mix triggers in the market. Spices are expected to maintain their appeal in the agro counter due to the anticipation of increased purchasing activity at lower price levels. GDP Growth Rate of Japan and Euro Area, Unemployment Rate of UK and Australia, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of Euro Area and Germany, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of Canada and UK, Retail sales, Building Permits, FOMC Minutes of US, Inflation Rate of Japan etc are some important data’s scheduled this week. These data points will likely influence commodities trends and provide insights into the economic conditions of these regions. (
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The bank has exhibited healthy performance on various parameters with some parameters showing way better than industry performance and some showing in line with the industry performance. The strong underwriting practices have led to significant improvement in the asset quality of the bank. The management of the bank plans to double its home loan portfolio in the next five years. To achieve its target of doubling the home loan book, the bank is strengthening its underwriting capability to improve delivery. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.681 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 1.71x and FY24 BVPS (Book Value Per Share) of Rs.398.13.
The company has reported steady growth in sales and improved collection efficiency. This has helped the company to generate healthy growth in cash flows from operations, liquidity and reduction in debt levels. Going forward, the healthy pre-sales in majority of the projects, demonstrates healthy saleability. Moreover, its forthcoming projects both in residential and commercial space indicate steady revenue growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 724 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on two year average P/BVx of 2.53x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.286.27E.
The stock closed at Rs.662.50 on 11thAugust, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.557.10 on 29th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.774.90 on 07th November, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.643
The stock has been consolidating in broader range of 560-660 levels from last more than eight months with prices holding well above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts. In a recent past, stock has a formed Double bottom pattern around 615 levels on daily charts, and bounced back sharply to gain a momentum above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval as well. At current juncture, the stock has formed an Inverted head & shoulder pattern on weekly charts and has given a fresh breakout above the neckline of the pattern formation. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 660-665 levels for the upside target of 725-730 levels with SL below 620 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.1171.45 on 11th August, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.882 on 26th September, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.1202.60 on 05thJuly, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1100.
The Stock can be seen rising steadily with formation of higher bottom pattern on daily & weekly charts as gradual recovery has been seen in prices from lower levels. At the current juncture, the stock has given a fresh breakout above the symmetrical triangle pattern along with marginal rise in volumes which suggests a long build up into the prices. The positive divergences on secondary oscillators suggests an upside momentum into the stock in upcoming weeks. Therefore, one can buy the stock in range of 1160-1170 levels for the upside target of 1265-1270 levels with SL below 1100 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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Over the past week, Nifty index concluded with a minor loss of about half a percent, while the Bank Nifty experienced a more substantial decline of over one and a half percent. It's worth noting that sectors like media, consumer durables and IT showed notable gains, but the financial services and banking shares faced noticeable declines. As per the derivative data, the highest open interest for Nifty call options was at the 19,600 level, closely trailed by the 19,500 level. Conversely, for put options, the highest open interest concentration was observed at the 19,400 level, followed by the 19,500 strike. Taking open interest into account, the anticipated trading range for the Bank Nifty is between 44,500 and 44,000. In terms of Implied Volatility (IV), Nifty call options settled at 9.17%, while put options concluded at 10.29%. Additionally, the Nifty VIX, a measure of market volatility, concluded the week at 11.40%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.15 for the week. Traders are recommended to exercise caution and implement tight stop-loss strategies, given the prevailing low volatility. Furthermore, specific stocks are expected to demonstrate movement in upcoming week. Looking ahead, the projected Nifty trading range for the upcoming week is estimated to span from 19,300 to 19,600 levels. A decisive breakthrough on either side has the potential to offer further momentum in market indices.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices kept their gains intact last week on aggressive buying for good quality produce in the market. Robust export demand and weather concerns for crop progress added firmness in prices. With sharp gains in prices arrivals increased but prices stood firm with intermittent correction due to limited availability of quality produce in the market. Most of the arrivals arrived with inferior quality. Overall arrivals of turmeric has been higher on yearly basis so far since Apr’23 as about 208 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived during above mentioned period in year 2023 against the 187 thousand tonnes of previous year. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops. Area under turmeric is estimated to be down by 15-20% in year 2023 due to monsoon concerns at the time of sowing. Despite overbought reading of RSI since mid of July'23 .Turmeric managed to sustain upwards trend. Now prices are expected to witness profit booking unless prices don't breach 18000 mark. Price should come 14500/14000 once. If 18000 is breach than prices may cross 20000 level.
Jeera futures traded down due to profit booking amid weakening of export enquire of Indian Jeera. Major trend of jeera is still bullish due to drier pipe line. Prevailing concerns over supply shortage is likely to support firmness in prices ahead. Farmers and stockists are reluctant to release their stocks in anticipation of another round of rally in prices. Pipelines are drier due to weaker crop and stocks are likely to remain tighter unless new crop touches the market. Export of Jeera during Apr-May’23 reported at 47 thousand tonnes as compared to 23 thousand tonnes of previous year. Major buying came from China as China increased its jeera import from India due to rising demand amid lower crop over there. China imported about 22.8 thousand tonnes of jeera in Ap-May’23 as compared to just 3.2 thousand tonnes of previous year. Bangladesh, Nepal and UAE are the major buyers of Indian jeera in year 2023. Jeera Prices are likely to trade in range of 64000-61000 levels.
Dhaniya NCDEX Sep prices are likely to trade higher mainly due to increased export demand. Supply from black sea is expected to decline as Russia exited from grain deal with Ukraine that has affected the global supply badly and supported the firmness in Indian prices. India exported about 35.4 thousand tonnes during time period of Apr-May’23 against the 6.3 thousand tonnes of previous year. China, UAE Saudi Arab, Iran has been the major buyers of Indian coriander in year 2023. Overall arrivals of dhaniya has been higher so far since Apr’23 due to larger crop size but most of the stocks are in stockists hand and they are reluctant to release stocks at prevailing prices. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7000-7900 levels.
Gold prices neared a one-month low due to subdued U.S. inflation data, with bullion on track for its most challenging week in seven as the U.S. dollar and bond yields demonstrated strength. The precious metal's declined by approximately 1.4% for the week as the U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury bond yields were poised for a fourth consecutive weekly increase. U.S. Treasury yields will fall in coming months despite clear signs that the Fed is reluctant to consider rate cuts any time soon, according to bond strategists polled by Reuters who said the 10-year yield would not revisit its cycle peak. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) showed a 0.2% rise last month, mirroring June's uptick, with the annualized rate reaching 3.2%. The CME's FedWatch Tool indicated a 90.5% probability of the Fed maintaining unchanged rates in its September meeting, up from around 86.5% before the data release. The Fed is making progress in its fight to lower inflation, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday, as the U.S. economy reaches a “watershed moment.” San Francisco Fed Bank Mary Daly said that while recent inflation data is moving in the right direction, more progress is needed before she would feel comfortable the Fed has done enough. On the COMEX, Gold price is hovering near the psychological level of $1920 break, critical support held near $1890 breach below the level will push the prices to $1860 whereas short term resistance is seen near $1960. Silver chart looks negative and may trade in the range of $20.890-$23.900. Ahead in the week Gold on MCX looks bearish and may trade in the range of 56900-60000 levels. Silver may continue the bearish rally and possibly trade in the wider range of 67500-73100 levels.
Crude oil surged to its highest levels since November 2022, driven by the sustained output reductions led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, intensifying concerns about supply adequacy. This rise was further spurred by the disclosure of a report by the Energy Information Administration, which indicated declines in inventories of both gasoline and distillate fuel. Despite a substantial 5.85 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks, exceeding expectations and following a record drawdown the prior week, the market largely disregarded this development. The drawdown in U.S. fuel stocks helped counterbalance some apprehensions about demand after Chinese data highlighted an 18.8% decline in crude oil imports in July, the lowest daily rate since January. China's consumer sector entered deflation, and factorygate prices continued to decline in July, underscoring challenges in reigniting demand for the world's second-largest economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised down its forecast for oil demand growth in the coming year, citing lackluster macroeconomic conditions, waning post-pandemic recovery, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade higher but rally looks overstretched, correction is expected and the possible trading range would be 6410-7150 levels. Natural-Gas Prices Jolted by Australian Labor Dispute, prices surged to their highest since Feb’2023. A dispute between Australian energy companies and their workers has natural-gas buyers bracing for a possible curtailment of supply from one of the world’s largest exporters of the fuel. Ahead in the week a range bound movement is expected in the natural gas where prices may find support near 210 levels and could face resistance near 250 levels.
Base metals may trade sideways with bearish bias on worries over lacklustre demand in China as a Chinese property debt issue raised doubts about a real estate recovery. Debt-laden Country Garden, China's largest property developer before this year, said that it is expected up to $7.6 billion in the first half, and that it would take measures to meet its debt obligations. New U.S. restrictions on investments in China’s technology sector also ramped up fears of a resurgent trade war between the two countries. However, deflation in consumer prices and declines in factory gate prices in China, adding to hopes that Beijing would boost policy stimulus. Copper may trade in the range of 710-740 levels. China's copper imports slid 2.7% in July from a year earlier, customs data showed, weighed down by soft demand in the faltering economy and high global prices. China's manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in July, and its industrial profits extended this year's double-digit pace of declines into a sixth month, hammering copper demand. Zinc can trade in range of 212- 227 levels. The discount on the LME cash contract to three-month zinc swung to a premium in early August in a sign of tighter near-term supply in the LME system. Lead can move in the range of 178-187 levels. Aluminium can move in the range of 195-205 levels. Aluminium stocks of Russian origin in LME approved warehouses, available to the market, rose to 81% of the total in July from 80% in June, data on the exchange's website showed. Steel long (Aug) is likely to trade in the range of 43500-45200 levels with weak bias on weaker off take by the Chinese construction sector.
Cotton prices are likely to trade mixed to higher on growing concerns over crop progress in central region. Weather condition has been drier and likely to remain adverse for crop in Aug’23 that will support the market sentiments. Cotton area across India reported at 119.2 Lakh Ha as on 4th Aug in year 2023 Vs 120.9 lakh Ha of previous year. However, improved demand of cotton yarn and limited availability of cotton stocks are likely to cap the losses. Cotton MCX Aug prices are likely to trade in range of 59000-61000 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1530-1600 levels.
Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Sep futures are likely to trade higher as per its price seasonality due to shrinking supplies in the market. Gains in relative oil meal prices and reports of fall in area under cotton are likely to support market sentiments for cocud. Cotton seed oil cake Sep prices are likely to trade in range of 2450-2800 levels.
Guar seed Sep futures is likely to trade down due to profit booking as physical demand has turned subdued above 6000. However, losses are likely to be limited due to weaker production prospects for upcoming season. Sowing area dropped in Rajasthan as 26.91 lakh Ha was sown under Guar as on 4th Aug Vs 29.7 lakh Ha of previous year. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5850-6750 levels in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11400-15000 levels.
Mentha oil Aug contract is likely to trade down with rise in supplies of new crop. Supply of new crop has increased at major trading centers whereas demand from stockists has been sluggish due to lower export enquires of menthol. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 830-910 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade mixed to down on reports of rise in area under castor in Gujarat. Castor Sowing activities are running on positive note as about 4.12 lakh Ha was sown under castor as on 4th Aug across India Vs 2.89 lakh Ha of previous year. Moreover, slack demand of castor oil will also keep prices down in near term. However, prevailing weather uncertainties in Gujarat will restrict the losses. Castor seed Sep prices are likely to trade in range of 6000- 6550 levels.k
It closed at Rs. 728.70 on 10th Aug 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 729.645. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.269. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.730 for a target of Rs. 705 with the stop loss of 740
It closed at Rs. 6873.00 on 10th Aug 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6159.78. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.778. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.6750 for a target of Rs.7100 with the stop loss of 6600.
It closed at Rs. 2625.00 on 10th Aug 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.2534.60 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 82.521. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.2600 for a target of Rs. 2800 with the stop loss of 2520.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
CRB recovered from last week's low, largely driven by strong performance in energy and other commodities. Bullion prices slipped on higher side of dollar index. Silver underperformed as compared to gold, which traded negative for the fourth consecutive week. This indicates that gold has been more resilient and possibly seen as a safe-haven asset in the current market conditions. Natural gas broke out of a period of consolidation, suggested a potential shift in the natural gas market. This breakout could indicate increased demand or changing supply dynamics. Crude oil prices sparked discussions about inflation once again as we know that rising oil prices can contribute to inflationary pressures in the broader economy, impacting various sectors. Top exporter Saudi Arabia's plans to extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month to include September. Russia also said it would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September. Most base metals traded bearish due to weaker data from China, the largest player in this commodity complex. China’s consumer prices slipped into deflation, while both imports and exports in the country shrank much more than expected in July. The country’s copper imports also contracted last month. Weakness in the world’s largest copper importer pushed up concerns over slowing demand for red metal, especially as economic conditions worsen across the globe.
In agri, Castor prices experienced a third consecutive week of decline, suggesting bearish sentiment in this market on reports of rise in area under castor in Gujarat. Castor Sowing activities are running on positive note as about 4.12 lakh Ha was sown under castor as on 4th Aug across India Vs 2.89 lakh Ha of previous year. Cotton oil seeds cake attracted buying on improved demand. Guar prices had a strong recovery, making it a good week for this counter on growing concerns over crop progress as drier weather condition in Rajasthan. Sowing area dropped in Rajasthan as 26.91 lakh Ha was sown under Guar as on 4th Aug Vs 29.7 lakh Ha of previous year. Turmeric had a significant upside move, drawing attention in the market limited availability of quality produce in the market. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops. However, coriander traded in a range with little upside. Jeera prices witnessed a pause in its rally, indicating a temporary slowdown in price appreciation on cheaper availability of Syrian jeera in global market.
Gold has been an essential component in the financial reserves of nations for centuries, and its demand is showing a paradigm shift in attitudes to gold since the 1990s and 2000s, when central banks, particularly those in Western Europe that own a lot of bullion, sold hundreds of tonnes a year. Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, European banks stopped selling and a growing number of emerging economies such as Russia, Turkey and India are buying the gold. Central bank purchases are highlighting the fact that gold remains a very important asset in the monetary system.
Love affair of global central banks with gold is amazing
Why Central-Bank Gold Buying Picked Up
The US dollar has shown a recent consolidation within a narrow range, hovering around 102.5 in the index. The USD/INR exchange rate has been on an upward trajectory, finding support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 81.68 level, and subsequently approaching a resistance zone spanning 82.90 to 83.00 levels. Recent sessions have witnessed a consolidation phase at elevated levels, roughly between 82.70 and 82.90, which is indicative of a potential support-resistance role in the upcoming sessions. Any breach of this consolidation range is likely to dictate the pair's next directional move. Notably, a breakthrough above the 83.00 mark could trigger a robust upward rally, underscored by the consistent respect for a symmetrical triangle chart pattern's resistance trend line over the past 11 months. This trend line's significance as a resistance level is further reinforced. Conversely, a drop below 82.70 in the USD/INR pair could prompt a correction towards the 21-day EMA, situated near 82.50 levels. Considering critical factors such as the prevailing trend, the pair's strength, prominent resistance levels, and the prevailing trading sentiment, our outlook suggests a forthcoming consolidation phase within the 82.50 to 83.00 range for the USD/INR pair. Moreover, a potential dip below 82.70 presents an opportunity for buying, with a suggested stop loss below 82.50. This strategic move aims to capitalize on a potential rally towards the significant resistance level at 83.00.
USDINR (AUG)pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 82.51. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 61.4 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.3 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.2 levels.
One can buy near 82.6 for the target of 83.2 with the stop loss of 82.3
GBPINR (AUG)pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.49. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 48 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 106 levels.
One can sell near 105.5 for the target of 104.5 with the stop loss of 106
EURINR (AUG) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.9. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 90.2 levels, while resistance is expected near 92 levels.
One can buy near 91 for the target of 92 with the stop loss of 90.5
JPYINR (AUG) pair is currently in an Strong Bearish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 58.23. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 38.4 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 56.85 levels, while resistance is expected near 58.23 levels.
One can sell near 57.75 for the target of 56.75 with the stop loss of 58.25
(1.5/5)
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The company intends to utilize the net proceeds from
the issue towards the funding of the following objects:
Prepayment or repayment of all or a portion of certain
outstanding borrowings availed by the company and
subsidiaries, TVS LI UK and TVS SCS Singapore; and
General corporate purposes.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the upper end of the price band of Rs.197, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 191.97x on FY23 EPS of Rs.1.03. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 206.34x on its EPS of Rs.0.95. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.197, pre issue, book value of Rs. 18.68 of P/Bvx 10.55x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 31.09 of P/Bvx 6.34x.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the lower end of the price band of Rs.187, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 182.23x on FY23 EPS of Rs.1.03. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 195.87x on its EPS of Rs.0.95. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.187, pre issue, book value of Rs. 18.68 of P/Bvx 10.01x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 31.09 of P/Bvx 6.01x.
TVS Supply Chain Solutions provides supply chain management services for international organizations, government departments, and large and medium-sized businesses. TVS SCS offers its services in two segments: Integrated supply chain solutions (ISCS); and Network Solutions (NS). TVS SCS' provided supply chain solutions to over 10,531 and 8,115 customers during Fiscal 2022 and the nine-month period ended December 31, 2022, globally and to over 1,044 and 733 customers, respectively, in the same periods, in India. The company's client list includes companies in the Automotive, Defence, Engineering, FMCG, Rail, FMCG, Utilities, E-commerce, and Healthcare industry. TVS Supply Chain Solutions registered a total income ofRs.92,999.36 million in Fiscal 2022.
Critical scale in a fast-growing and fragmented third-party logistics market in India: The company operates at the forefront of a rapidly expanding logistics industry in India that is expected to grow to US$385 billion by Fiscal 2027 at a CAGR of 13% from US$205 billion in Fiscal 2022 according to the Redseer Report.
Leader in end-to-end solutions enabled by domain expertise, global network and knowledge base: The company acts as a complete ‘one-stop’ solution for customers from sourcing to distribution through its end-to-end capabilities, which includes sourcing and procurement, integrated transportation, logistics operating centre, inplant logistics operations, finished goods and aftermarket fulfilment, import and export freight, closed loop logistics and support, and secondary transportation.
Robust in-house technology differentiation: With increasing technological advancements in the logistics and supply chain industry, the company follows a ‘technology-first’ supply chain solutions approach and aim at delivering innovative and responsive technology solutions in order to optimise its customers’ supply chains.
Its C3 Framework’ has been fundamental to its overall growth strategy through which it has focused on:
It identifies opportunities using the ‘C3 Framework’ in the three C’s - Customer, Capability and Country. It seeks out situations where it has a presence in two out of the three ‘Cs’ and then aims to grow in the third ‘C’through either organic or inorganic means. It has been able to achieve significant business growth and scale by following the ‘C3 Framework’ and implementing the strategies of encirclement, new business development and acquisitions, which has led to:
Growth in its existing core sectors: It has been able to grow in its existing core sectors, such as automotive, industrial and consumer sectors, by offering its capabilities to existing customers in new geographies as well as by offering capabilities to new customers engaged in such industries.
Pivot to new age and fast emerging sectors: It further develops its existing capabilities and technology infrastructure and leverages them to pivot into new sectors such as electric vehicles, health tech, clean energy and utilities. Further, in the United Kingdom, it won a contract where it deployed its NS capabilities for managing reverse logistics of COVID-19 test samples. Going forward, in line with its ‘C3 Framework’, it intends to continue to grow its business through specific strategies for each of the C’s.
Continued innovation and investment in technology: The company aims to continue to invest in technology designed to optimize labits and inventory management and also facilitate better visibility into fulfillment. It intends to build expertise in the following areas to further deepen its tech capabilities.
Continue to grow its global platform through targeted inorganic opportunities: The company has undertaken various acquisitions in the past which has significantly grown its scale and capabilities across geographies and intend to continue to pursue incremental acquisition opportunities that it believes will be complementary to its existing platform, enhance its technology, and increase the value proposition it delivers to its customers.
TSCSL is a supply chain solution-providing arm of the TVS group. It derived an average of 72.99% of its revenue from operations from its global operations in Fiscals 2021, 2022 and 2023, with the average of revenue United Kingdom, Europe (excluding the United Kingdom), Australia and New Zealand, and North America accounting for 31.85%, 14.53%, 9.38% and 6.22% of its total revenue from operations in the same years. While it does not have ownership of these assets, it has control over the capacity and fleet, and the scheduling, routing, storing, and delivery of goods are managed by it. Besides, it operates customer-owned/ leased warehouses. The issue looks aggressively priced.
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HSBC Mutual Fund has launched HSBC Consumption Fund, an open ended equity scheme following a consumption theme. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on August 24. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty India Consumption Index TRI. The scheme will be managed by Gautam Bhupal, Sonal Gupta (for overseas investments). The investment objective of the fund is to generate longterm capital growth from an actively managed portfolio of equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in or expected to benefit from consumption and consumption related activities. The minimum application amount is Rs 5,000 per application and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. Minimum application amount is applicable for switch-ins as well. The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options.
Nippon India Mutual Fund has announced the launch of Nippon India Innovation Fund, an open-ended equity scheme that will invest in innovation themes. The new fund offer of the scheme will open for subscription on August 9, and it will close on August 23. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Vinay Sharma, and Kinjal Desai (overseas investment). The investment objective of the scheme is to provide long-term capital appreciation to investors by primarily investing in equity and equity-related securities of companies seeking to benefit from innovation. That is, companies that invest in innovation, research and development, new product development or new platforms to enhance their business and gain share in their respective sectors. The minimum investment amount required during NFO is Rs 500 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options. The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in innovative companies that have the potential to disrupt their industries and create significant value for investors in the long term. It will have the flexibility to invest across market caps and sectors. The fund's flexibility will allow it to identify the better investment opportunities by identifying companies ahead of the curve in new innovation, technologies or business models.
Kotak Mutual Fund has launched Kotak S&P BSE Housing Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking S&P BSE Housing Index. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on August 21. The scheme will re-open for continuous sale and repurchase within five business days from the date of allotment units on or before. The scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE Housing Index (Total Return Index). The scheme will be managed by Devender Singhal, Satish Dondapati, and Abhishek Bisen. The investment objective of the scheme is to replicate the composition of the S&P BSE Housing Index and to generate returns that are commensurate with the performance of the S&P BSE Housing Index, subject to tracking errors. The scheme will follow a passive investment strategy with investments in stocks in the same proportion as in S&P BSE Housing Index. The scheme will invest 95-100% in equity and equity-related securities covered by the S&P BSE Housing Index and 0-5% in debt and money market instruments.
Parag Parikh Mutual Fund has filed a draft for an arbitrage fund. Parag Parikh Arbitrage Fund will be an open-ended scheme investing in arbitrage opportunities. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 50 Arbitrage Total Return Index (TRI). The scheme will be managed by Rajeev Thakkar, Raunak Onkar, Raj Mehta, and Rukun Tarachandani. According to the scheme information document, the investment objective of the scheme is to generate capital appreciation and income by predominantly investing in arbitrage opportunities in the cash and derivatives segment of the equity market, and by investing the balance in debt and money market instruments . The minimum application amount will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum installment amount for monthly SIP will be Rs 1,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The minimum installment amount for quarterly SIP will be Rs 3,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter.The scheme's riskometer shows that the scheme will fall in the 'low' category.
The SIP contribution in July stood at an all time high of Rs 15,244.73 crore in July. The number was Rs 14,734 crore in June and Rs 12,140 in July 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the contribution increased by around 3%. The number of SIP accounts stood at the highest ever at 680.52 lakh for July 2023, compared to 665.37 lakh in June. Mutual fund folios in July reached an all-time high of 15,14,21,270 compared to 14,91,31,708 in June. The retail MF folios that includes equity, hybrid, and solution oriented schemes also stood at an all-time high at 12,08,50,415 in July compared to 11,90,63,434 in June. The retail asset under management which includes equity, hybrid, and solution oriented schemes stood at Rs 24.17 lakh crores in July 2023, with an average asset under management of Rs 23.77 lakh crore.
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