In the weak gone by, global stock market witnessed volatile session amid a rise in US Treasury yields as market participants await Federal Chairman Reserve Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on the interest rate outlook. To note, officials of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their yearly conference on central banking. Meanwhile, Business activity in the US private sector expanded at a softening pace in early August as the S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 50.4 from 52 in July. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 47 from 49 while the Services PMI fell to 51 from 52.4. The euro zone GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, having grown by 0.1% in the first quarter. Another data showed that European business activity contracted once again during August, to its lowest level since November 2020. The euro zone’s flash composite purchasing managers’ index, released Wednesday, fell to 47.0 for August from 48.6 in July. This missed economists’ expectations for a figure of 48.8, according to Dow Jones. The recent economic data is leading the discussion around what the European Central Bank might do when it meets next month.
Back at home, domestic markets witnessed further volatile movement after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised inflationary concerns. Market participants turned cautious after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) policy meeting minutes flagged inflation risks. The choice of policy flexibility, vigilance, and focus on the durable elements of inflation dominated the minutes. The market is delicately waiting for triggers. Going forward, with the earnings season nearing its end, the heightened possibility of another rate hike in the US is expected to keep the global market volatile. Besides, domestic markets will continue to take direction from the global factors too.
On the Commodity market front, CRB took a pause after previous week fall. Dollar index saw a pause in the upside rally. It recovered from 99.70 to 103.98 in five weeks. In the bullion counter, gold prices bounced after three week fall lifted by a retreat in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Silver had a strong comeback rally after five week fall. Energy counter gave up its upside further. Crude oil breached the crucial levels of $80 per barrel. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 58000-60000 and 72000-74500 respectively. Crude oil can take support near 6400-6450. Industrial metals recovered, except lead on some positive steps taken by China to recover the infra sector. GfK Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate of Germany, Consumer Confidence, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index, Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing PMI and GDP Growth Rate of US, NBS manufacturing PMI of China, Inflation Rate of France and Italy, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area, GDP Growth Rate of India, Italy and Canada, and many more data will release this week, which will give much needed direction to commodities which are trading in range.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The company showcased strong financial performance in the last few quarters helped by strong growth in its residential business. Going forward residential business is expected to continue its growth momentum with new launches in the upcoming quarters and the ongoing projects. According to the management of the company, its pipeline across business verticals remains strong, and the company is optimistic about sustained future growth. The company expects to launch 9.70 mn sft in next 4 quarters out of which 7.87 mn sft is in the residential segment. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.679 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current P/Bv of 4.37x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.155.30.
The company is doing well and has strong balance sheet. According to the management of the company, different end-user applications, value-added products, a shift from metal to plastic pipes, ongoing consolidation and infrastructure demand will help the large plastic pipe manufacturers to post healthy double-digit volume growth. It is believed that large organised manufacturers with pan-India facilities will take advantage of this opportunity to increase market share over the coming years. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.251 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a three year average P/BV of 3.04x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs.82.57.
The stock closed at Rs 2003.75 on 28th Aug, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs 1476.05 on 17th Oct, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.2288.8 on 16th Jun, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1935.
After testing its 52 week high of 2288.80 in the month of June 2022, the stock witnessed a correction phase over the months and dragged back to 1900 levels. However the stock managed to take support around 1900 levels twice in last few weeks and formed double bottom pattern formation. Currently the stock is trading above 200 exponential moving averages. The stock has failed breakdown twice on daily chart. On short term charts, prices can be seen trend line breakout as well as there is a positive diversion in RSI (Relative Strength Index). Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2020-2040 levels for the upside target of 2280-2300 levels with SL below 1850 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 2392.10 on 25th Aug, 2023. It made a 52- week low at Rs 1660.05 on 17th Apr, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.2491 on 25th Aug, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 2084.
The Stock was consolidating in a broader range of 1800-2050 levels during the months of April to June. Thereafter the stock witnessed a breakout on daily chart. Currently the stock is trading above its 200 exponential moving average and trading at 52 week high. Despite the correction in market, the stock is outperforming the market. A substantial surge in buying activity was observed within the range of 2300-2150 levels, followed by the emergence of a new momentum trend on the chart. Currently oscillator is suggesting some pause. A fresh breakout can be expected above 2400 level. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2400-2420 levels for the upside target of 2680-2700 levels with SL below 2260 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
Charts by Reliable software
On the weekly chart, both Nifty and Bank Nifty indices concluded with marginal gains. Banknifty, however outperformed Nifty. The market responded to the rupee's approach towards its historical low by witnessing increased buying activity in IT shares. Noteworthy was the market outperformance by large-cap and Midcap stocks. Conversely, there was a trend of profit-taking in the energy, oil & gas, and pharmaceutical stocks. In the analysis of derivative data for Nifty, there was visible call writing in 19,300 and 19,400 strikes, whereas the highest call open interest was recorded at 19,500 strike. Conversely, put writers seemed less active in Nifty, with the highest open interest at 19,000 strike. In Banknifty, the highest open interest was observed at 45,000 strike, followed by 44,500 strike. On the put side, the highest call open interest was noted at 44,000 strike. Moving to implied volatility (IV), call options for Nifty settled at 10.04%, while put options concluded at 11.59%. The Nifty VIX, a measure of market volatility, concluded the week at 11.70%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI), standing at 0.82 for the week, indicated a higher inclination towards call writing over puts. Looking forward to the upcoming week, it's anticipated that Nifty's trading range will be between the psychological level of 19,000 and 19,500. Traders are advised to monitor the India VIX closely, as it is trading near to the support level. A rebound in India VIX could be expected in the coming weeks. The prevailing viewpoint recommends adopting a "sell on rallies" approach until the Nifty surpasses the 19,500 level.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices traded on weaker note kept its bias on downside mainly due to profit booking. Lowering demand in physical market and reports of sluggish export weighed on market sentiments. Export demand has slowed down with sharp rise in prices as India exported only 18.3 thousand tonnes in June’23 as compared to 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. Stockists and farmers offloaded their stocks in fear of further fall in prices that kept spot prices down as well. Demand remained subdued as most of the arrivals arrived are inferior quality. Downfall in turmeric is looking limited due to bleak production outlook amid limited availability of quality produce in the market. Prevailing drier weather condition in central and southern region is major concerns for crop and expected to restrict the major downfall in prices. Sowing has reached in its last stages and area under turmeric is estimated to be down by 15-20% in year 2023 due to adverse weather condition. Turmeric prices are likely to trade in range of 14500-17200 levels.
Jeera futures traded down for third consecutive week due to surging selling pressure supported by muted demand in the domestic market. Weakening export enquire prompted stockists to release their stocks in the market. Weakness in Jeera is likely to remain continue in near term due to improved global supplies with increased supplies from Turkey and Syria. Export of Jeera dropped in June’23 with reduced buying by China as India exported only 9.2 thousand tonnes of jeera as compared to 20.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. However downfall in prices is likely to be limited due to drier pipe line. Festive demand of jeera is expected to improve in Sep that will prompt millers to buy on every dips. Pipelines are drier due to weaker crop and stocks are likely to remain tighter unless new crop touches the market. Jeera Prices are likely to trade in range of 50700-58000 levels.
Dhaniya NCDEX Sep prices are likely to trade mixed to down due to subdued domestic demand. Stockists are releasing their stocks in fear of further fall in prices. Weakness in dhaniya will remain continue due to adequate domestic supply. However, losses are likely to be limited with increased export demand. Export demand of dhaniya has been good that will cap the downfall in prices. India exported about 11.3 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in June’23 as compared to 2.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. India exported about 46.7 thousand tonnes during time period of Apr-June’23 against the 8.7 thousand tonnes of previous year. China, Malaysia and UAE have been the major buyers of Indian coriander in year 2023. Overall arrivals of dhaniya has been higher so far since Apr’23 due to larger crop size but higher export is likely to restrict the losses. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6900-7500.
Gold experienced the strongest week in six, benefiting from a decline in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of significant speeches by prominent central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The speeches, anticipated at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Powell, are likely to provide insights into future interest rate directions. Notably, two Federal Reserve officials recently welcomed a surge in bond market yields, seeing it as complementary to the central bank's efforts in economic moderation and achieving a 2% inflation target. They also expressed the likelihood of avoiding further interest rate hikes. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its September meeting is now at 88.5%. Meanwhile, new claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. decreased for the second consecutive week, reflecting a positive trend. In Tokyo, core inflation slowed for the second consecutive month in August, though it remained significantly above the central bank's 2% objective. The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, observed a minor 0.10% decrease in holdings. Swiss gold exports fell 2% in July from June, as lower deliveries to China and India failed to compensate for a sharp growth in supplies to Turkey, Swiss customs data showed. Comex Gold Prices surged past crucial support at $1885, holding steady above the psychological threshold of $1910, with resistance anticipated around $1950. Meanwhile, silver prices are expected to maintain their range between $22.00 and $25.00. Ahead in the week, on MCX Gold prices may trade in the wider range of 57500-59000 levels, whereas silver may trade in the range of 69800-75500 levels.
Crude oil prices experienced a second consecutive week of decline, influenced by a stronger dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's impending speech. The dollar's surge, driven by anticipation of Powell's insights on interest rates, posed a dampening effect on oil demand by making it more expensive for non-dollar holders. Market focus has shifted to Powell's speech following the release of recent U.S. inflation and labor market data. Investor apprehension over Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium bolstered the dollar to a 10-week high, reflecting its most significant monthly increase. Talks between Turkey and Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government on resuming northern Iraqi crude oil exports are ongoing. This follows an unsuccessful attempt earlier week after Turkey's loss in an arbitration case against Iraq. Attention remains on Iranian oil output as the country's oil minister projected a production of 3.4 million barrels per day by September's close, despite prevailing U.S. sanctions. Additionally, reports indicate U.S. officials are devising a plan to ease sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, potentially allowing broader crude oil imports. These factors, including supply concerns, continue to impact the oil market sentiment. Ahead in the week crude oil prices will witness high volatility where the possible trading range would be 6300-6850. Natural Gas futures fell despite forecasts for hotter weather and higher gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected as a heat wave moves slowly across the central U.S. Russia produced 34.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in July, down 6.7% from the same month last year, according to data. Ahead in the week prices may trade in the range of 190-215.
Base metals may trade sideways in the narrow range as China's efforts to stabilise the yuan and on hopes of improving demand ahead of a peak consumption season while poor economic data from China may continue to pressure the demand outlook and prices. China cut its one-year benchmark lending rate, as expected, as authorities seek to ramp up efforts to stimulate credit demand, but surprised markets by keeping the five-year rate unchanged. Meanwhile, the downturn in euro zone business activity has deepened more than expected this month in a broad-based fall across the region, particularly in Germany, Europe's largest economy, a survey showed. Copper may trade in the range of 720-745 levels. The global refined copper market showed a 90,000 metric tons deficit in June, compared with a 58,000 metric tons deficit in May, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin. China's Yangshan copper premium rose to $48 a ton, the highest since July 7, indicating rising demand for imported copper. Zinc can trade in range of 205-225 levels. The global zinc market surplus increased to 76,000 metric tons in June, up from 67,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed. Lead can move in the range of 181-189 levels. Aluminium can move in the range of 194-205. China's Yunnan province started ramping up energy-intensive aluminium production after the end of power curbs. Steel long (Sept) is likely to trade in the range of 44900-48000 levels. Global crude steel production increased by 6.6 per cent in July to 158.5 million tonnes against 148.9 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.
Cotton prices are likely to trade mixed to higher on growing concerns over crop progress in central region. Weather condition has been drier and likely to remain adverse for crop in Aug’23 that will support the market sentiments. Area under cotton has been already down in year 2023 and now lower yield prospects will restrict the losses in cotton. Cotton area across India reported at 121.28 Lakh Ha as on 18th Aug in year 2023 Vs 124.21 lakh Ha of previous year. Cotton MCX Sep prices are likely to trade in range of 56500-61500 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1520-1600 levels.
Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Sep futures are likely to witness huge volatility ahead. Growing concerns over drier weather in central and northern part of Indian has resulted into rise in demand of cotton seed oil cake. Moreover, reports of fall in area under cotton also supported rally in cocud. Prices are facing resistance near 2800 and expected to move towards 2950 if prior level is breach. However, some profit booking could be seen towards support of 2600 in near term.
Guar seed Sep futures is likely to trade sideways to higher due to prevailing concerns over lower production in Rajasthan. Sowing area dropped in Rajasthan by 10% %-o-Y to 27.34 lakh Ha in year 2023. Drier weather in Rajasthan has sparked the worries of yield losses that will support firmness in prices. However, sluggish export of gum will cap the gains. About 37 thousand tonnes of guar gum was exported during the time period of Apr-Jun’23 as compared to 66 thousand tonnes of previous year. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5850-6350 levels in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11400-13800 levels.
Mentha oil Sep contract witnessed sharp recovery in prices due to short covering in the market. Stockists are showing buying interest with emerging fresh export enquires for menthol. Overall production of mentha oil is likely to be down on yearly basis due to lower acreages that will cap the downfall in prices. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 940- 1020 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade mixed to down on reports of rise in area under castor in Gujarat. Castor Sowing activities are running on positive note as about 6.48 lakh Ha was sown under castor as on 18th Aug across India Vs 6.0 lakh Ha of previous year. Moreover, slack demand of castor oil will also keep prices down in near term. Castor seed Sep prices are likely to trade in range of 5900- 6500 levels.
It closed at Rs. 214.75 on 24th Aug 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 218.198. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.269. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.217 for a target of Rs. 202 with the stop loss of 225.
It closed at Rs. 6520.00 on 24th Aug 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6319.78. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.778. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.6570 for a target of Rs.7000 with the stop loss of 6450.
It closed at Rs.12962.00 on 24th Aug 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.11780.60 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.521. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.12900 for a target of Rs. 14000 with the stop loss of 12350.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
CRB took a pause after previous week fall. Dollar index witnessed impressive jump. It recovered from 99.70 to 104.26 in five weeks. In the bullion counter, gold prices bounced after three week fall lifted by a retreat in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields as investors waited to see what interest rate signals the U.S. Federal Reserve could send at its annual Jackson Hole meeting. U.S. business activity approached the stagnation point in August, with growth at its weakest since February as demand for new business in the vast services sector contracted. Silver had a strong comeback rally after five week fall. Energy counter gave up its upside further. Crude oil breached the crucial levels of $80 per barrel as weak manufacturing data in major economies outweighed optimism around a larger-thanexpected drop in U.S. crude stocks. Japan reported shrinking factory activity for a third straight month in August. Industrial metals recovered, except lead on some positive steps taken by China to recover the infra sector. However, upside was limited as the downturn in Euro zone business activity has deepened more than expected this month in a broad-based fall across the region, particularly in Germany, Europe's largest economy.
In agri, castor seeds futures were unable to break resistance and slipped on profit booking on sluggish buying in domestic market midrise in acreage. Cotton oil seeds cake noticed volatile move of both side; finally closed in red. Cotton candy futures too traded weak owing to muted industrial demand amid weaker export prospects and slower domestic buying. Guar complex witnessed big moves on news of crop damages in some region. Sowing area dropped in Rajasthan as 27.34 lakh Ha was sown under Guar as on 11th Aug Vs 30.08 lakh Ha of previous year. Increased demand of guar meal and shrinking supplies of gum is likely to support prices. India exported about 132.7 thousand tonnes of guar meal during Oct’22- Jun’23 as compared to 92.7 thousand tonnes of previous year. In spices, jeera prices dived for the third week as traders were reluctant to go long on such higher prices. Coriander remained traded bearish on smooth supply. Stockists are releasing their stocks on fear of further fall in prices. However, losses are likely to be limited with increased export demand. India exported about 11.3 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in June’23 as compared to 2.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. Turmeric was down on subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels. Export demand has slowed down with sharp rise in prices as India exported only 18.3 thousand tonnes in June’23 as compared to 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year. Export of Jeera dropped in June’23 with reduced buying by China as India exported only 9.2 thousand tonnes of jeera as compared to 20.4 thousand tonnes of previous year.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision makers, analysts, and investors.
Manufacturing sector activities in India moderated for the second straight month in July as rates of expansion in output and new orders eased slightly, a monthly survey said. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 57.7 in July from 57.8 in June.
The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change.
Despite the fall, the Indian manufacturing sector maintained strong growth momentum at the start of the third quarter amid on-going buoyant demand, the survey said.
Manufacturing purchasing managers’ Index of China & US
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ Index (PMI) fell 49.3, came in July came in at 49.3, compared to 49.0 in the previous month, below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Although China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in the month, but due to the sluggish international demand, the sector is dealing with a significant slowdown in worldwide demand. Local demand has also be affected due to declining capital and retail expenditure. The demand for manufactured goods has been hindered by weaknesses in China’s real estate market, which has also had an impact on the country’s overall economy.
US manufacturing activity continued to cool in July due to softer demand for merchandise as the economy struggles for momentum. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 46.4 in July. The latest figure marks the ninth consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The July reading was below the forecast of 46.8.
The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing data are consistent with a general slowdown in other parts of the world. In recent months, the PMI has painted a worsening picture of Eurozone activity, and August data are no different with new orders falling and backlogs of work easing. The composite PMI dropped from 48.6 to 47 with the services PMI also dropping below 50.
Japan's factory activity shrank for a third straight month in August amid higher oil prices and uncertainty over the global economic outlook, although the pace of decline slowed, a private sector survey showed. The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged up to a seasonally adjusted 49.7 in August from 49.6 in July. The index remained below the 50.0 index point threshold, which separates contraction from expansion.
Overall, lower PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the global economy. Manufacturing has stalled and the service sector’s rebound from the pandemic has gone into reverse, as the tailwind of pent-up demand has been overcome by the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and growing gloom about the economic outlook.
The Dollar Index has been on a consistent upward trajectory since it found a low around the 99.20 zone in mid-July. Recently, it has broken out above its significant 200-day Exponential Moving Average (200 EMA) and is comfortably positioned above the 104 level. This surge has taken it to its highest point in eleven weeks, marking a six-week streak of advancement. This impressive movement aligns with the anticipation building up ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are keen to glean insights into the future course of US monetary policy from his remarks. It is widely anticipated that Powell will reiterate the central bank's commitment to maintaining relatively higher interest rates in order to counteract inflationary pressures. However, his messaging is also expected to underscore the Fed's flexibility in responding to incoming economic data. This balanced approach has been indicated by two Fed officials who, on Thursday, noted that the recent rise in bond yields could complement the central bank's strategy of tempering economic growth to achieve the 2% inflation target. They also hinted that additional rate hikes might not be necessary. Shifting focus to the USD/INR pair, the past week saw the pair entrenched in overbought territory. This led to a resistance barrier forming around the 83.20 level, prompting a retreat below the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21-day EMA) situated around 82.70. The subsequent corrective move resulted in a cooling off of the overbought conditions, bringing the pair into a neutral zone following a correction of approximately 50 paisa. Presently, the USD/INR pair appears to be adopting a sideways movement pattern. Critical support is concentrated around the 82 mark, where its prominent 200-day EMA also aligns. Conversely, the upper resistance level is traced back to the record high of around 83.20.
USDINR (SEPT)pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 82.72. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.4 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.2 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.2 levels.
One can buy near 82.5 for the target of 83.2 with the stop loss of 82.1
GBPINR (SEPT)pair is currently in an Strong Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 105.32. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 37.32 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 103.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 105 levels.
One can sell near 105.5 for the target of 104.5 with the stop loss of 106
EURINR (SEPT) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 90.44. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 34.75 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 88.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.4 levels.
One can sell near 89.5 for the target of 88.5 with the stop loss of 90
JPYINR (SEPT) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 57.58. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 32.37 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 56.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 57.58 levels.
One can buy near 56.5 for the target of 57.5 with the stop loss of 56
(2.5/5)
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The proceeds from the issue will be used for the
following objects:
Funding capital expenditure requirements for the
purchase of equipment/machinery.
Funding the working capital requirements of the
company.
General corporate purposes
Considering the P/E valuation, on the upper end of the price band of Rs.99, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 10.21x on FY23 EPS of Rs.9.70. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 13.61x on its EPS of Rs.7.27. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.99, pre issue, book value of Rs. 33.66 of P/Bvx 2.94x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 50.01 of P/Bvx 1.98x.
Considering the P/E valuation, on the upper end of the price band of Rs.94, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 9.69x on FY23 EPS of Rs.9.70. Post issue, the stock is priced at a P/E of 12.93x on its EPS of Rs.7.27. Looking at the P/B ratio at Rs.94, pre issue, book value of Rs. 33.66 of P/Bvx 2.79x. Post issue, book value of Rs. 50.01 of P/Bvx 1.88x.
Incorporated in 1986, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Limited is engaged in the business of designing and constructing infrastructure projects for the Central and State Governments, autonomous bodies, and private bodies across 9 States and 1 Union territory in India. The company's principal business operations are broadly divided into four categories: (i) Water Supply Projects ("WSP"); (ii) Railway Projects; (iii) Road Projects and (iv) Irrigation Network Projects.
Focused player in Water Supply Projects (WSPs): Vishnu Prakash has over thirty-six (36) years of experience in executing WSPs comprising of construction and development of pipelines, water tanks, reservoirs, tunnels, overhead tanks, water treatment plants and irrigation projects. Vishnu Prakash has executed more than seventy five (75) WSPs so far. Vishnu Prakash’s order Book contains WSPs for execution across the states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Assam and Haryana as on July 15, 2023.
Visible growth through robust order book across segments: As on July 15, 2023, Vishnu Prakash has ongoing projects aggregating Rs.6183.58 Crore, of which Rs.2384.05 Crore worth of work has been executed and balance Rs.3799.52 Crore form part of its Order Book.
Established relationships with marquee client base: Over the years, Vishnu Prakash has undertaken infrastructure projects from various departments of the Central and State Governments across multiple locations and segments, including: (a) PHED, Rajasthan; (b) Water Resources Department, Rajasthan; (tic) Rajasthan Urban Infrastructure Development Project (“RUIDP”); (d) Jodhpur Development Authority (“JDA”), Jodhpur, Rajasthan; (e) Public Works Department Rajasthan; (f) Military Engineering Services, Government of India; (g) Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam Limited (“SSNNL”), Gandhinagar, Gujarat; (h) Gujarat Water Supply and Sewerage Board (“GWSSB”), Gandhinagar, Gujarat; (i) Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation (“GIDC”), Gandhinagar, Gujarat; (j) Daman Municipal Council, Daman; (k) State Water and Sanitation Mission, Uttar Pradesh; (l) North Western Railway (NWR); (m) Western Railway; (n) Central Railway; (o) Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (“RVNL”); and (p) Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (“DFCCIL”).
In-house integrated model: Vishnu Prakash in-house integrated model, helps reduce its dependency on third parties for key materials required to execute its projects, such as, ready-mix concrete, stone aggregates, and processed bitumen, in a cost effective manner. As on March 31, 2023, its equipment fleet comprised about 499 construction equipment and vehicles. Further, as on March 31, 2023, the aggregate gross block value of Company’s property, plant and equipment was Rs. 136.12 Crore.
Geographical diversification: Geographical diversification of its projects will reduce its reliance on specific geographical areas and allow it to capitalise on different growth trends across various states in India and globally. Vishnu Prakash believes that its strategy of focusing on further developing its existing markets as well as expanding into new markets with growth potential will enable it to effectively target growth opportunities, widen its revenue base, as well as reduce the risk of volatile market conditions and price.
Continued focus on its Water Supply Projects (WSP) business: As on July 15, 2023, WSPs constitute 77.89% of its total Order Book. With continued focus of the Central and State Governments on ‘Jal Jeevan Mission’ and AMRUT scheme, it intends to maintain and strengthen its position in execution of WSPs on a turnkey basis in India. So far it has thirty-eight (38) WSPs under execution. It intends to further grow its portfolio of water supply turnkey projects and other projects by capitalising on its experience, asset base, market position and ability to execute and manage multiple projects across various geographies.
Pursuing other segments: The GoI had announced the National Infrastructure Policy (NIP) covering various sectors and regions indicating that it is relying on an ‘infrastructure creation’ led revival of the country’s economy. The NIP, covering rural and urban infrastructure entailed investments to the tune of Rs. 11100000 Crore to be undertaken by the Central Government, State Governments and the private sector during FY20-25. This in turn is expected to offer significant opportunities to construction players in India.
VPRPL has orders on hand worth Rs. 3800 cr. approx. as of July 15, 2023. The company has not undertaken any sub-contracting assignments to date. It undertakes assignments independently or whenever required, through its joint ventures. On the flip side, the company has not yet placed orders in relation to the capital expenditure to be incurred for the proposed purchase of equipment / machineries.
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Quantum Mutual Fund has filed for Quantum Multi Asset Allocation Fund (QMAF). The fund house has filed the scheme information document (SID) with the capital market regulator – Securities and Exchange Board of India. The fund house is known for its focus on value investing and has a few schemes. Launched in September 2005, the fund house manages assets (AUM) worth Rs 2,293 crore as on July 31, 2023, spread across 11 schemes, as per ACE MF. As per QMAF, the fund manager will invest 35 to 65 percent of the money in stocks, 25 to 55 percent of the money in bonds and 10 to 20 percent of the money in gold and related instruments. The fund manager will ascertain the allocation to each of the asset classes mentioned above after taking into account various factors including price/earnings ratio relative to historical averages; the relationship between earnings yield to bond yield relative to historical averages and macroeconomic factors prevailing globally, and within India. SID further makes it clear that the equity component will be predominantly invested in securities of the Nifty 50 index and the debt component will include high-quality bonds, wherein the fund managers will manage the duration actively, depending on their view on interest rates.
Navi Mutual Fund has launched Navi S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund, an open-ended fund that will replicate and track the S&P BSE Sensex Index. The scheme aims to generate returns that are commensurate with the performance of the S&P BSE Sensex Index and will ensure that investors’ money is always invested in the 30 leading Indian companies. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on September 1. The performance of the Scheme will be benchmarked with S&P BSE SENSEX Index (Total Returns Index). The scheme will be managed by Aditya Mulki and Ashutosh Shirwaikar. The minimum subscription amount is Rs 10 plus in multiples of Re 1 during the NFO. With a Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.14% (direct plan), the Navi S&P BSE Sensex Index Fund will have the lowest cost across all Sensex index funds and active large funds, the fund house said. The average TER of other Sensex index funds is 0.22% while that of active large cap funds is 0.9975% (Source: AMFI TER data, August 1, 2023).
Mahindra Manulife Mutual Fund has launched Mahindra Manulife Business Cycle Fund, an open-ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme, catering to investors with an appetite for long-term capital appreciation through equity and equity-related securities. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on September 4. The scheme will reopen for continuous sale and repurchase from September 13. The scheme aims to generate capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity-related securities with a focus on investing in companies and sectors to participate in the business cycles through active portfolio allocation. The scheme will be benchmarked against NIFTY 500 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Krishna Sanghavi, Renjith Sivaram Radhakrishnan, and Kush Sonigara (overseas investments). The investment approach of the scheme amalgamates top-down and bottom-up methodologies, providing a comprehensive strategy. This process shall commence with a thorough identification of the prevailing business cycle and sectoral trends, providing a robust framework for portfolio allocation.
UTI Mutual Fund (UTI) has announced the launch of UTI Nifty Midcap 150 ETF. The UTI Midcap 150 ETF will be a passively managed scheme and it will replicate the performance of the underlying index, Nifty Midcap 150 TRI. The New Fund Offer or NFO is open for subscription, and it will close on 28th August. The scheme will reopen again on 5th September. “The UTI Nifty Midcap 150 ETF enables investors to tap into India's midcap universe through the Midcap 150 index, offering the potential for attractive returns and exposure to emerging leaders. With its affordability, it serves as a cost-effective avenue to invest in the midcap market segment,” said Sharwan Kumar Goyal, Head – Passive, Arbitrage & Quant Strategies, UTI AMC. In the ETF space, UTI MF currently has seven ETF products - based on broad large cap based indices (Nifty 50, Sensex, Nifty Next 50 and Sensex Next 50), sectoral thematic index (Nifty Bank) and ETFs based on commodities (Gold & Silver). To further expand UTI MF products in the overall market-cap coverage, the company is now launching the ETF in the midcap segment with UTI Nifty Midcap 150 ETF.
Bandhan Mutual Fund has announced the launch of the Bandhan Nifty IT Index Fund, an open-ended equity scheme tracking Nifty IT index, with an aim to capture the growth potential of the Indian Information Technology (IT) sector. The IT sector is a significant catalyst for the Indian economy, facilitating revolutionary changes across different segments such as Banking, Finance, Education, Healthcare, Communication and Connectivity, Entertainment, Automobile, and E-Commerce. The Bandhan Nifty IT Index Fund is well-positioned to provide investors with a convenient, cost-effective route to benefit from the vast opportunities in this sector over the long term, a press release said. The New Fund Offer will open on August 18, and it will close for subscription on August 28. Investment in the Bandhan Nifty IT Index Fund can be made through licensed mutual fund distributors and online platforms, as well as, directly with the fund. Vishal Kapoor, CEO, Bandhan AMC, said, “The Indian IT sector is at the forefront of global innovation, establishing itself as a technology powerhouse and a leading player in the global IT landscape. Over the years, the Nifty IT Index has generated healthy returns for its investors delivering a handsome 17% annual return over the last 10 years and outperforming major sectors. Moreover, the valuation of the Nifty IT Index has eased over the last 18 months and is now closer to its historical average. Our latest offering, the Bandhan Nifty IT Index Fund combines the relative stability, quality and reasonable return visibility that this exciting sector offers.”
Helios Mutual Fund has filed a draft for an overnight fund. Helios Overnight Fund will be an open-ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities. The scheme will be benchmarked against the CRISIL Liquid Overnight Index. Alok Bahl will manage the scheme. According to the scheme information document, the investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns commensurate with low risk and providing high level of liquidity, through investments made primarily in debt and money market securities having maturity of 1 business day including TREPS (Tri-Party Repo) and Reverse Repo. The scheme will have a regular and a direct plan with both growth and IDCW options. The scheme will allocate its assets up to 100 % in debt, money market instruments, cash and cash equivalents (including repo) with overnight maturity / maturing on or before the next business day, and 0-5% in G secs and/or T bills with a residual maturity of up to 30 days. The scheme falls under the ‘low’ risk category.
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