In the week gone by, domestic markets remained mix following second wave of I coronavirus and and more upbeat hopes about an economic recovery. Actually, Fresh virus cases in Beijing have raised fears of a second wave of Covid-19 infection in the world’s second largest economy, creating jitters in financial markets the world over. The US is showing no sign of improvement in virus cases, stoking fears that the pandemic may stay on for a longer time. Meanwhile, The European Central Bank has released 1.31 trillion euros (USD 1.46 trillion) in long-term, ultra-cheap credit to hundreds of banks as part of its emergency support aimed at cushioning the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on businesses and workers. The Bank of Japan kept monetary settings steady and stuck to its view that the economy will gradually recover from the coronavirus pandemic. It too has increased the nominal size of its lending packages for cash-strapped firms to $1 trillion from about $700 billion announced last month.
Back at home, rising tension on the Indo-China border and weak global cues kept a check on optimism in the domestic markets. There is a buzz in the street India may impose antidumping duty on imports of certain steel products from the EU, Japan, the US and Korea for five years to protect domestic players from cheap imports. Meanwhile, Foreign Portfolio Investors are considering shifting base to avoid disadvantage against competitors based in Singapore or Mauritius for investments in India. Actually, India has continued to tighten regulatory restrictions around China, and by extension Hong Kong, since April, when the Centre notified that all investments from neighboring countries would face scrutiny and require government approval. Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on India's sovereign ratings to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable’, citing a weakened growth outlook and challenges from a high public debt burden due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As per ICRA, absolute earnings of the corporate India contracted by 22 percent and 12 percent in Q4FY20 and FY20 respectively. Further, the impact is expected to be even more pronounced during Q1 FY2021, given the stringent two-month long nationwide lockdown. However, as we know that market is always forward looking and as the restriction has been lifted, market will continue to rise on optimism that economy would bounce back. Going forward, it is expected that the markets to remain volatile as investors would track global cues and development around India-China border issues.
On the Commodity market front, CRB has improved marginally after previous week fall, however the upside was capped on bearish news on second wave of Corona amid border tension issue between China and India. Now it is crawling towards 140 levels. Border tension between India and China amid rise in numbers of corona infected will continue to give support to gold prices and it is likely to touch 48200 levels. Silver should trade in a range of 47000-49500 levels. OPEC and its allies fell short of their 9.7 million-barrel-a-day cuts target by 1.26 million in the month of May. That volume will be compensated in full in the coming months. Crude oil should move in a range 2800- 3150. Base metals are rising on some green shoots in major economies. In agri complex, spices can see more upside in coming days on improved domestic as well as international demand. Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, Durable Goods Orders MoM, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Finalof US, Interest Rate Decision of New Zealand, etc are very important triggers of the market this week.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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Going ahead, focus on strengthening the balance sheet and building a strong deposit franchise, maintaining risk adjusted returns will benefit return ratios of the bank. The Bank has been one of the most consistent performers over the years, driven by best in class return ratios & margin profile. Given the government support, MSME advances would occupy significant space for incremental lending in the near term. Based on all these factors, it is expected that the bank would see good growth going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1576 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/Bvx of 4x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.393.91.
The company is witnessing healthy financial growth across all the business segments. Diversification efforts paid off as growth in the overall business is well supported by the robust growth witnessed in the new businesses. According to the management, it expects to maintain strong growth momentum in all three new business segments as well as gold loan segment. Moreover, the economic package of Rs 20 trillion to revive Indian economy includes the loan guarantee scheme of Rs 75,000 crore for NBFCs and MFIs that would help in easing the liquidity challenges faced by the NBFCs. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.174 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/Bv of 2.1x and FY21BVPS of Rs.82.73.
The stock closed at Rs 80.05 on 19th June 2020. It made a 52-week low at Rs 56 on 24th March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 122.10 on 04th November, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 83.92
As we can see on chart that the stock witnessed massive correction from yearly high and made 52 week low in single downswing, formed double bottom on charts and recovered sharply. Apart from this, the stock has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts and has given the breakout of pattern during last week along with high volumes so buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 78-79 levels for the upside target of 90-93 levels with SL below 73.
The stock closed at Rs 521.10 on 19th June 2020. It made a 52-week low of Rs 340 on 23rd March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 646.40 on 31st October, 2019. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 517.59
Short term, medium term and long term bias are positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on chart which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, it is forming a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly charts and is likely to close on verge of breakout of pattern with hug2 buying interest so follow up buying may continue for near term. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 510- 515 levels for the upside target of 560-570 levels with SL below 485.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Indian markets witnessed a stunner rally last week on the back of sharp gains in financials and index heavyweight like Bajaj Twins & Reliance Industries. Reliance made its all-time high after the company announced that it has become net debt-free after having raised Rs 1.68 lakh crore in under two months. Among other sectors Realty, PSU Bank and Auto also supported the markets. From derivative front, short covering was led by call writers at 10000 strike which pushed Nifty indices towards 10200 levels. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 28.46% while that for put options closed at 30.53%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 31.46% and is expected to remain sideways. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.53 down indicates more put writing as compared to call. In coming sessions, now 10000 should act as crucial and major support for the Nifty and bias will likely to remain bullish as far Nifty is holding above that. On higher side, immediate resistance is placed at 10350 above which follow up buying can be seen and Nifty can move towards 10500 levels as well. However, volatility is likely to grip markets in coming sessions as well.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (July) is expected to witness a bull run towards 5800-5990 levels, taking support near 5500 levels. There is a huge demand for byproducts of turmeric, especially for its naturally-occurring chemical compound curcumin, in the pharma industry. Exports were sent to countries like the US, the UK , Sri Lanka and Nepal. However, on the supply front, there is likely to be crunch as the farmers in the current crop season are disinclined to take up cultivation of major commercial crop turmeric in view of the increasing labour and investments costs. Farmer spends at least Rs.1.50 lakh on each acre to grow the turmeric, however, getting only Rs.1.15 lakh on each acre. Jeera futures (July) may show weakness & trade with a bearish bias to test 13400-13300, facing resistance near 14000 levels. The farmers are sitting on huge inventories of cumin as this season there was bumper yield & due to lockdown, the movement of produce was limited. Due to lack of demand, the farmers are not getting the good price and there is anticipation that this scenario will prevail due to lack of export inquiries. Cumin is being sold only at the rate of Rs.11000-12000 per quintal. However, in this too, prices are fixed in terms of quality. In such a situation, the farmers coming from the rural areas of Jaisalmer and nearby districts in Mandi here are selling their produce even after not getting proper price, due to financial requirement for raising kharif crop. Dhaniya futures (July) is expected to trade higher towards 6300-6400 levels taking positive cues from the spot markets. The prices are gaining grounds on the back of firm demand from domestic buyers, coupled with a fall in supply at the mandies.
Bullion counter may continue to trade with bullish bias as the safe-haven demand supported by concerns over the second wave of coronavirus infections, although gains were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar. Gold prices seem to be in somewhat of equilibrium at the moment. Prices are balanced between geopolitical and COVID-19 concerns on one side, and economic recovery hopes and dollar strength on the other. The boost in demand could be a self-fulfilling prophecy for the metal’s price, as any shift in allocation from bond and equity markets, estimated at up to a combined $200 trillion, has a much larger impact on the smaller gold market, estimated at less than $5 trillion. A surge in fresh infections in several U.S. states and the imposition of travel curbs in Beijing to stop a new outbreak have renewed fears of delay in the economic recovery as countries reopen after coronavirus-induced lockdowns. Simmering geopolitical tensions between North Korea and South Korea, and India and China also offered some support to bullion, which is often used as a safe-haven investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. Cleveland FED President Loretta Mester said it could take a year or two for the U.S. economy to return to levels seen before the pandemic. U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to cut ties with China, a day after his top diplomats held talks with Beijing. This week, gold may trade in the range of 46500-48200 and Silver may trade in the range of 46400-49600. On COMEX Gold may take support near $1680 and on the upside, it may extend bullish rally till $1790. Silver may trade in the range of $16.30-$19.00.
Soybean futures (July) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3700-3950 levels with upside getting capped. This Kharif season, if monsoon rains are as per prediction, the acreage may cross last year figures and the yield would also be higher, which will probably lead to a 15% rise in the country's soybean crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun). The trend of mustard futures (July) is bullish & dip around 4650 can be taken as an advantage to build long positions, as it may surpass the previous high at 4755 & witness further upside move towards 4900 levels. Demand for mustard and mustard oil is strong in domestic markets. The firm demand for mustard oil is evident from reports of higher crushing of the oilseed by oil millers. Lower imports of mustard oil from Canada as consumers in India are shifting to oil produced from home-grown mustard seeds would also lift sentiment. Imports are falling because the mustard oil coming from Canada is manufactured from canola, which is not as pungent as Indians typically prefer. The uptrend is likely to persist in soy oil futures (July) and in days to come it is expected to test 840-850, taking support near 815 levels. On similar lines, we may see CPO futures (July) reaching 700-715 levels on the higher side. The news of a likely increase in import duty on edible oils in the coming days is still hovering round the corner due to which the market participants are optimistic that it would give a boost to the edible oil prices. The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has asked the government that India should impose restrictions on edible oil imports so as to balance the need-based supply.
Oil gained almost than 17% in the previous week after OPEC producers and allies promised to meet commitments on cutting supply and two major oil traders said demand was recovering well. The OPEC+, have been cutting output since May by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (BPD) - or 10% of global supply - after oil demand plunged by up to a third. Plans by Iraq and Kazakhstan to make up for overproduction in May on their supply cut commitments supported the market. The promises came out of a meeting by a panel monitoring compliance by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. Prices are showing solidity at these levels, as oil markets ignore the concerns rolling across other asset classes at the moment. OPEC+ sources said the discussion was unlikely to recommend an extension of record cuts into August and compliance with production cut commitments in May was 87%. Worries about fuel demand rose after a surge in coronavirus cases led Beijing to cancel flights and shut schools while several U.S. states, including Texas, Florida, and California, reported sharp increases in new cases. A second straight weekly rise in U.S. crude stockpiles to a record high also weighed on sentiment, but U.S. government data showed lower inventories of gasoline and distillates, indicating higher demand. This week, the crude price may extend its bullish rally towards 3280 as the resistance hold at 3040 is already broken and prices are sustaining well above the level. Downside it may take support near 2840. With warmer weather coming, it is forecast that U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 77.8 bcfd this week to 85.1 bcfd next week. Natural gas may continue to trade in a wider range of 118-138.
Cotton futures (June) taking support near 15800 level is expected to show an upside momentum towards 16300-16500 levels. Strong overseas demand and weakness in the Indian currency have provided a much needed fillip to Indian cotton exports, which slowed down in the last two months due to the COVID19 pandemic. Currently, conditions are favourable for exports as the Indian rupee has depreciated. This may lead to a big support for exports of the fibre in the coming months. Currently, Indian cotton is being offered at 61-62 cents a pound on cost and freight basis, 5-8 cents lower than the crop from the US and Brazil. On the international market, there are concerns of weather as in Texas and other major cotton growing regions of the United States have been undergoing a dry spell, raising apprehension of crop damage. Chana futures (July) is looking bullish & in days to come it can test 4250-4300, taking support near 4135 levels. Chana and other pulse seeds have been trading higher at the mandis in Indore on improved buying and weak arrival. Mentha oil futures (June) may show further recovery towards 1020-1040, from its bottom near 977. With the ease of lockdown, the market participants are expecting that the exports as well as the domestic consumption would catch pace & the fresh demand would come into the market for the newly harvested crop, containing high yield of oil. Guargum futures (July) is expected to hold on to the support near 5400, while the upside may get extended towards 5700-5800 levels. The demand for it is likely to climb as the rising oil prices are prompting the return of production, which should continue through the second half of the year.
Base metal prices can trade in the range. Copper can face resistance near 465 levels while taking support near 435 levels. The prices may get support on hopes for higher demand as the U.S. economy showed signs of a recovery. Demand outlook for metals may also supported by reports that the Trump administration was preparing an infrastructure package of up to $1 trillion focused on transport projects. However, a sharp rise was capped by concern regarding the course of stimulus steps by the Chinese central bank. In a financial forum in Shanghai, People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said the central bank would maintain ample financial system liquidity in the second half of the year but could withdraw that support at some point. Export orders from China have weakened significantly as most countries remain in partial lockdown but China approved import quotas for another 1,570 tonnes of highgrade copper scrap in 2020. Zinc may move towards 168 levels and taking support near 159 levels. Arise in zinc output in China also influenced the metal prices as reports citing data from the country's National Bureau of Statistics showed output rose 4.5% on year to 514,000 tn in May. Lead can move towards 145 levels while taking support near 133 levels. Nickel may trade with bullish bias where it may test 1020 levels and taking support near 950 levels. As per WBMS, global mine production during January to April was 688.7 kt, 74 kt below the comparable 2019 total. Aluminum may move towards 140 levels while taking support near 132 levels. A flood of aluminium from Canada and falling demand recently due to coronavirus lockdowns had pushed the U.S. premium below $180 a tonne from around $400 seen for much of last year.
ZINC MCX (JUN) contract closed at Rs. 162.40 on 18th Jun’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 167.75 on 06th Jun’2020 and a low of Rs. 156.00 on 27th May’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 161.28. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.607.
One can buy near Rs. 160 for a target of Rs. 168 with the stop loss of Rs. 156.
NICKEL MCX (JUN) contract closed at Rs. 986.10 on 18th Jun’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 994.00 on 16th Jun’2020 and a low of Rs. 902.30 on 05th Apr’2020. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 968.46. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.390.
One can buy near Rs. 970 for a target of Rs. 1010 with the stop loss of Rs. 950.
GUARSEED NCDEX (JUL) contract was closed at Rs. 3586.00 on 18th Jun’2020. The contract made its high of Rs. 3693.00 on 19th Jun’19 and a low of Rs. 3448.00 on 29th May’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 3568.37. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.829.
One can buy near Rs. 3630 for a target of Rs. 3900 with the stop loss of Rs 3495.
CRB has improved marginally after previous week fall, nevertheless the upside was capped on bearish news on second wave of Corona amid border tension issue between China and India. Now it is crawling towards 140 levels. Safe haven buying returned in dollar index on bleak outlook of US amid new wave of corona though upside was limited. U.S. consumer spending rebounded in May as retail sales rose almost 18%, the biggest monthly increase in records dating back to 1992 - albeit one that followed its biggest ever drop in April. Oil prices fell as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the United States renewed fears that a recovery in fuel demand could stall, even as lockdowns ease. Worries about fuel demand rose after a surge in coronavirus cases led Beijing to cancel flights and shut schools and several U.S. states, including Texas, Florida and California, reported sharp increases in new cases. OPEC warned in a monthly report the market would remain in surplus in the second half of 2020 even as demand improves, as it now expects supply from outside the group to be about 300,000 barrels per day higher than earlier thought. However in the later part of the week, it revived on vaccine optimism. Natural gas prices saw some value buying from lower side. Gold also remains supported by the Federal Reserve’s assurance of continued support for the U.S. economy until it fully recovers from Covid-19. Investor feared as China continued efforts to stem a new outbreak in Beijing and escalating tensions between both China and India as well as the two Koreas could boost the safe-haven metal. Silver too supported by the upside in gold. In MCX, gold and silver traded near and respectively. Base metals prices thwarted by all negative news in the world though on Thursday it saw some bounce back.
In agri, spices prices augmented on improved demand. Turmeric export demand was seven years high in first five months of 2020. Turmeric traded above 5550 levels whereas coriander was few point shy away from 6000 mark. Jeera was trying to consolidate I range. Syria and Turkey are yet to come in the market and there was great opportunity for India to export during the new crop season, though the export activities are not full-fledged at present. Firm demand for mustard oil in the domestic market, lower imports, and a smaller crop pushed up mustard prices. The demand for the castor, used in grease and lubricant in the auto industry is increasing in the automobile sector after the ease of lockdown. It has supported castor futures as well.
Natural gas is a vital component for subsuming India’s energy needs. As one of the cleanest, and safest of all energy sources, natural gas is likely to play a greater role in the near future. The government of India has taken several steps to develop a national gas grid.
To facilitate transparent price discovery in natural gas, and facilitate the growth of the share of natural gas in India’s energy basket, India’s first gas exchange-the Indian Gas Exchange (IGX)-was launched on June 15,2020. Indian Energy Exchange, the country's largest electricity trading platform, is the parent of the gas exchange, had planned to set up the nation’s first natural gas exchange to tap into the increasing demand for clean fuel. IGX has 12 members and 300 plus clients so far which includes buyers, sellers and users.
IGX will help the nation move towards free market pricing of natural gas. The exchange will help bring down the price of natural gas through competitive trade, boosting usage in the country thatrelies heavily on cheaper coalforits energy needs.
Another historic week gone by when Himalayan border tensions between India and China reminded us the memory of 60s war with China. Apparently risk premium in rupee has jumped substantially more than 200 basis points than what has to be a week earlier. Meanwhile Covid19 cases are still spreading rapidly and may create further backdrop in domestic economic activity. Going forward next week no major economic data are scheduled but a low possible chance of another emergency RBI policy meet may give more cues in rupee. From the majors euro continue to remains stronger except modest weakness for few instances when sudden concerns over second wave drag global equities lower. Sterling turned to be the worst performing currency against G10 pairs this week as we mentioned last week that high swings is expected with downside bias amid BoE loose monetary policy. Next week the trend is likely to remains the same except any positive Brexit headlines doesn't reverse the order.
USD/INR (JUN) contract closed at 76.1650 on 18-Jun-2020. The contract made its high of 76.4500 on 17-Jun-2020 and a low of 75.8525 on 16-Jun-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 75.97.
On the daily chart,the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.28. One can buy on dips 76.00 forthe target of 76.80 with the stop loss of 75.50.
GBP/INR (JUN) contract closed at 95.3400 on 18-Jun-2020. The contract made its high of 96.3575 on 16-Jun-2020 and a low of 94.8825 on 15-Jun-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheGBP/INR is currently at 95.07.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.60. One can sell at 95.50 for a target of 94.50 with the stop loss of 96.00.
| 15th JUN | Indian exports fell by over 36% in May |
| 16th JUN | Powell: No U.S. growth recovery until epidemic controlled |
| 17th JUN | French economy to slump 17% in second-quarter despite May rebound: INSEE |
| 17th JUN | UK inflation hits four-year low on oil price fall, COVID impact |
| 18th JUN | Australia jobless rate surges to 19-year high in May, slow recovery seen |
| 18th JUN | U.S. weekly jobless claims remain high, second wave of layoffs blamed |
| 18th JUN | Fitch cuts India's sovereign rating outlook to 'negative' |
EUR/INR (JUN) contract closed at 85.6375 on 18-Jun-2020. The contract made its high of 86.6100 on 17-Jun-2020 and a low of 85.5525 on 15-Jun-2020 (Weekly Basis).The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 84.93
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.76. One can sell at 85.80 for a target of 85.00 with the stop loss of 86.30.
JPY/INR (JUN) contract closed at 71.1575 on 18-Jun-2020. The contract made its high of 71.3675 on 18-Jun-2020 and a low of 70.3125 on 16-Jun-2020 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe JPY/INR is currently at 70.57
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.63. One can buy at 71.00 for a target of 71.80 with the stop loss of 70.50.
Digital solutions provider Happiest Minds Technologies has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with capital market regulator SEBI for an initial public offering (IPO), the first company to do so during the nationwide lockdown. The proposed IPO consists of fresh issue of shares worth up to Rs 110 crore and an offer for sale of up to 3.56 crore equity shares by promoters as well as investors. Founder and Executive Chairman Ashok Soota will sell 84,14,223 shares, while private equity investor JP Morgan Investment Management CMDB II will offload 2,72,49,362 shares, the prospectus says. Promoter and promoter group hold 61.77 percent stake in the company, including 48.83 percent held by Soota. Investor CMDB II has 19.43 percent shareholding (2,72,49,362 equity shares) in the company. The offer for sale shows that CMDB II wants to exit the company via IPO. Happiest Minds offers digital business, product engineering, infrastructure management and security services. In FY20, 96.9 percent of its revenues came from the digital-services business.
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According to Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), MFs that invest in fixed-income securities saw an inflow to the tune of Rs 63,665 crore last month as compared to an inflow of Rs 43,431 crore in April. Of the total inflow seen last month, liquid funds with investments in cash assets such as treasury bills, certificates of deposit and commercial paper for shorter horizon, attracted a staggering investment of Rs 61,870 crore.
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