Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by the global market remained under pressure amid concerns stronger than expected economic growth and inflation remaining persistently high would lead to the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts for some time. Conflicting expectations on the size and the timing of potential interest rate cuts have kept the market on edge since the start of this year. Bonds have taken a particular hit; with 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit four-week highs at 4.6% as concerns about inflation mount and after a weak Treasury auction on Wednesday. Meanwhile, data from U.S showed that second estimate of GDP in the first quarter was revised lower at 1.3% from 1.6% in the advance estimate and personal consumption also slowing indicating cooling economic expansion. Euro area economic confidence improved in May as the economy recovered from a recession and the unemployment rate dropped slightly in April, reflecting improved confidence in industry, services and among consumers. China slipped into contraction territory in May, with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.5 and Japan`s Industrial output weakened more than expected at 0.1% in April as compared to 4.4% gain in March. With these data behind the investors would now focus on inflation data to be release by euro zone and U.S and ECB meeting outcome next week.

Back at home, the domestic market witnessed profit booking ahead of next week's election results after surging to new highs, keeping volatility high. The positive earnings surprises so far this quarter are a tailwind for valuations but investors are on edge ahead of election results due on 4th June, with retail and HNIs taking a wait-and-see approach. With exit polls looming on Saturday, traders fear a steep correction if the results don't favor the current government. However, a bright spot is the sustained buying by domestic institutions (DIIs), indicating underlying strength in domestic economic growth. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings during the week revised outlook for the Indian economy to 'positive' from 'stable' and has affirmed the overall rating at 'BBB-' citing robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. The Indian monsoon season has arrived early, with Kerala receiving its first rains on Thursday, a day sooner than predicted. The India Meteorological Department predicts above-average rainfall for India this year. Going forward all eyes would be on the exit polls and final outcome of general election next week along with global cues.

On the commodity market front, the CRB Index saw a correction amid a bounce in the dollar index, though the dollar index ultimately closed in the red. In the bullion market, gold traded within a range and experienced a slight increase, while silver displayed significant volatility. Gold closed near 72,000, whereas silver hit a record high of 96,484 before closing around 94,150 due to profit booking. Gold and silver are likely to trade in a range of 70500-74000 and 92000-98000 respectively. Oil investors were also cautious ahead of an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for last weekend, where the producer group will decide whether to extend, deepen, or unwind supply cuts. Crude oil will see limited downside geopolitical tensions amid some green signals from China. Meanwhile, stimulus measures are anticipated to sustain the growth of copper demand, with potential manufacturing recoveries in Europe and the United States also contributing to increased demand. Copper counter can see fresh lower levels buying. It can trade in a range of 855 to 900 with upside bias.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • S&P Global Ratings raised its outlook on India's credit rating as continued policy stability, deepening economic reforms and high infrastructure investment would help to sustain long-term growth prospects. The rating agency lifted its rating outlook to positive from stable and maintained the sovereign rating at 'BBB-', which is the lowest investment grade.
Finance
  • Jio Financial Services on Wednesday unveiled the beta version of Jio Finance app to offer UPI, digital banking, loans on mutual funds.
Power
  • SJVN Ltd has approved the signing of a Joint Venture Agreement with Indian Oil Corporation Limited for the formation of a Joint Venture Company for the development of Green RTC, Renewable Projects, and other New Technology-based Projects.
Automobile/ Auto Ancillaries
  • TVS Motor Company announced the launch of TVS HLX 125 with 5-gears in Tanzania. The new motorcycle offers features that are powerful yet efficient. It has best-in-class durability, requires minimal maintenance, has a superior engine, provides excellent mileage and performs across terrains.
  • ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems signed an MoU with IIT-Madras for the Bharat Multi-Modal Mobility Stack (BM3S) to develop sustainable global transportation solutions.
Entertainment
  • PVR INOX announced the launch of its first multiplex at Varam Central Mall in the city of Machilipatnam, Andhra Pradesh. With a seating capacity of 872 guests, this marks PVR INOX Limited's first establishment in Andhra Pradesh, post the merger.
  • PVR Inox announced the opening of its luxury cinema at Urban Square Mall in Udaipur, Rajasthan. At six screens, this is the largest multiplex in the city with a seating capacity of 1009 seat. The newly opened 6-screen property features the first INSIGNIA cinema format in the city, making it the first luxury cinema destination in Udaipur.
Healthcare
  • KIMS subsidiary KIMS Hospital Bengaluru entered into a lease agreement for setting up a super specialty hospital in Bengaluru, at Peoples Education Society (PES) campus, Electronic City. The subsidiary also entered into a management agreement with PES to exclusively manage the proposed under-construction hospital unit.
Construction
  • RVNL received a Letter of Acceptance from South East Central Railway for a project involving auto signalling with electronic interlocking between Champa and Sakti sections, including various installation and construction works. The project, costing ₹38.10 Crore, is to be completed within 15 months.
Telecom
  • Avantel has received a supply order worth of Rs 109.76 crore from Ministry of Defence, Government of India. The contract is for the supply of SATCOM equipment. The said contract has to be executed within a period of 12 months.

PIVOT SHEET

CORPORATE ACTION

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • US pending home sales index plunged by 7.7 percent to 72.3 in April after spiking by 3.6 percent to an upwardly revised 78.3 in March. Economists had expected pending home sales to decrease by 0.6 percent compared to the 3.4 percent surge originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims rose to 219,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 216,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 218,000 from the 215,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US gross domestic product climbed by 1.3 percent in the first quarter compared to the previously reported 1.6 percent jump. The downwardly revised increase, which was in line with economist estimates, compares to the 3.4 percent surge in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • The euro area unemployment rate dropped marginally in April. The unemployment rate fell to 6.4 percent in April from 6.5 percent in March. The rate was expected to remain unchanged at 6.5 percent.
  • China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in October from 50.2 from the previous month. That missed forecasts for a score of 50.5 and was down from 50.4 in April, and it moves beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
  • Industrial output in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in April. That was well shy of expectations for an increase of 1.5 percent following the 4.4 percent gain in March.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

BIKAJI FOODS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

CMP: : 594.90

Target Price: 694

Upside: 17%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 604.95/374.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 14895.24
  • EPS (Rs.) 10.61
  • P/E Ratio (times) 56.07
  • P/B Ratio (times) 12.23
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.19
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Bikaji Foods International is the third largest ethnic snacks company in India with an international footprint, selling Indian snacks and sweets, and is among the fastest growing companies in the Indian organised snacks market.
  • On distribution front, over the years its territories has been increasing and in past 1 year, has added almost about 100,000 outlets in its direct reach. Also, this year opened CFAs Ghaziabad and Varanasi, UP, in the West of India, Ahmedabad and Pune to strengthen its distribution network. According to the management of the company, direct reach by FY26-end is expected to be at 400k outlets. 150k outlets are likely to be in focus markets.
  • On the development front, the company plans to expand geographically and is also eyeing exports and intends to keep up with double digit volume growth for the next ten years. It has plans to open 2-3 QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) in FY25, and expects a big jump in exports
  • The company's revenue from Ethnic Snacks grew by 10.8% YoY; constitutes 73.5% of overall revenue, Packaged Sweets revenue increased by 12.7% YoY; constitutes 8.2% of overall revenue, revenue from western snacks rose 14.6% YoY; constitutes 8.6% of overall revenue and revenue from Papad jumped 23.4% YoY; constitutes 8.6% of overall revenue, during the period under review.
  • Amitabh Bachchan's contract renewed for the next 2 years. 14 new advertisements have been shot. Moreover, already shot a lot of films with him and about 16 different films targeting various products and sub- categories to air on digital media.
  • For FY25, the management of the company has Targeting a volume growth of 13%-15% for the next two years with the expectation of 2-4% price rise in FY25. Also guided for 32.5-33% gross margin for FY25 on account of focused on utilizing existing capacity and looking for potential acquisition opportunities.

During Q4 FY24, it has reported 13% topline growth with 14.5% volume growth. EBITDA increased by 10% YoY to Rs 68.2 crore with a margin of 13.1% contracted 40bps YoY, while it expanded 100bps QoQ and reported a significant 200% increase in net profit, reaching Rs 116.28 crore as compared to Rs 38.67 crore in the same period last year. In Q4, the company received a cumulative PLI benefit of three years amounting to Rs.93 crores.

Risk

  • Intense competition
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

The company is doing well and according to the management of the company has delivered a remarkable volume growth of 15.3% during FY24. On the bottom-line front, EBITDA margin for the year improved which is led by reduction in commodity prices, superior mix, operating leverage and effective cost management. Moreover, the company is strengthening its distribution network to achieve a deeper distribution across its core and focus markets. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 694 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on 1 year & above P/BVx of 11.98x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.57.90E

FIEM INDUSTRIES LIMITED

CMP: 1175.00

Target Price: 1497

Upside: 27%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1299.25/821.90
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3092.56
  • EPS (Rs.) 62.96
  • P/E Ratio (times) 18.66
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.49
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.28
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • Fiem Industries Ltd. (FIEM) is one of the leading manufacturers of Automotive Lighting & Signalling Equipment's and Rear View Mirrors in India. FIEM is among first companies in India introducing LED lights in two wheelers. It has diversified its product portfolio by entering into LED luminaires for Indoor and Outdoor applications and Integrated Passenger Information System for Railways & Buses. It has a strong client base of more than 50 Two-wheeler and Four-wheeler OEM's. It has three world class R&D / Design Centres located in India, Italy and Japan. It has the first mover advantage and working with all major EV OEMs in India.
  • On the capex front, in FY2024, the company has made a capex of Rs 85.86 crores. Moreover, the company has announced large capex plan for the next three years to meet future demand. It plans to invest Rs. 250 crore to Rs. 300 crore to enhance existing capacity for the current segment, new projects for four-wheelers, meet capex requirement in South India and around the hub motor units.
  • The company has informed that production of Full LED Head Lamp is scheduled to start in 4th Quarter of Financial Year 2024-25 and this will be an export business for the Company.
  • Recently, the company had made a breakthrough in the 4-wheeler passenger car segment in the European market. It has received the Purchase Order along with advance and has already commenced the Design and Development process for the same.
  • The company has made significant progress with passenger car OEMs in India, some of them in the final stages. This is the first big step towards its journey in the passenger car segment.
  • FIEM has the first mover advantage and working with all major EV OEMs in India. Company has competitive advantage, because of in-house R&D, designing and testing capabilities with shortest development time.
  • In Q4FY2024, sales grew by 28.15% YoY to Rs. 554.7 crore, on the back of 27.91% growth in Automotive Sales at Rs. 551.80 crore. EBITDA grew by 25.33% YoY to Rs. 75.46 crore with EBITDA margin at 13.60%. PAT grew by 24.02% to Rs. 47.1 crore.

Risk

  • Economic Slowdown
  • High Commodity Prices

Valuation

The company has strong client base with over 50 OEMs and diverse product portfolio. Its recent breakthrough into 4-wheeler passenger car segment in the European market and significant progress with passenger car OEMs in India auger well for the company. The company is planning to enhance existing capacity and add new capacity to meet increased demand outlook. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 1497 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on a target P/BVx of 4.1x and FY25 BVPS of Rs. 365.13.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

GAIL (India) Limited (GAIL)

The stock closed at Rs.204.30 on 31st May, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.103.30 on 23rd June, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.213.65 on 18th April 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 164.

After reaching its 52-week high of 213.65 in April 2024, the stock entered into a consolidation phase, and seen trading within a broader range of 190-210 levels. Last week, a fresh breakout occurred on technical front, as the stock gained momentum above a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily charts. This price action was supported by rising volumes, indicating a likely continuation of the bullish trend. Therefore, one can buy the stock on in the range of 202-204 levels for the upside target of 227-228 levels with SL below 185 levels.

BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRICALS LIMITED (BHEL)

The stock closed at Rs.298.90 on 31ST May, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.80.85 on 31st May, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.322.50 on 21st May 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 207.

The stock has been maintaining its bullish trend since long time, and can be seen trading within a rising channel and forming higher lows on daily and weekly charts. After marking its 52-week high of 322.50 recently, it pulled back to find support around the 290 level. Last week, a fresh breakout was observed above a symmetrical triangle pattern on short-term charts, with the stock taking support at its ascending trend line within the bullish channel. The fresh momentum is likely to continue in upcoming sessions as well with secondary oscillators pointing towards next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in range of 295- 298 for the upside target of 338-340 levels with SL below 270 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Over the past week, the Nifty index corrected by more than 1.5% after reaching to its record highs, while the Bank Nifty closed on a flat note. PSU banks emerged as the top performer last week, whereas the IT, energy along with oil & gas sectors lagged behind. Analyzing Nifty's derivative data, the highest call writing was observed at the 23,000 and 22,500 strikes, while put writers were most active at the 22,000 and 22,500 strikes. For Bank Nifty, the highest call open interest was seen at the 50,000 and 49,000 strikes, whereas on the put side, it was concentrated at the 48,500 and 49,000 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 22.37%, while put options concluded at 23.54%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 24.18%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.25 for the week. The rollover rate for Banknifty in the June series has declined compared to the previous series, falling from 74.41% to 67.66%. Conversely, Nifty's rollover rate has increased to 71.76%, surpassing the previous month's rate and aligning with the three-month average of 71.40%. This indicates sluggish moves in Banknifty as for now. However, with further developments in data during the month could provide next directional move in Banknifty from hereon. Consequently, we can anticipate a directional movement in Nifty following the election results, with Nifty expected to show stronger momentum compared to Banknifty. In the upcoming week, Nifty is expected to remain highly volatile on back of Lok Sabha election results due on 4th of June.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 30.05.2024

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices slumped further as market participants trimmed their positions at exchanges in terms of profit booking triggered with sluggish domestic buying. Most of the Stockists and millers avoided bulk buying in anticipation of further fall in prices as prices ruled at multiyear high. Heavy difference between spot and futures also triggered profit booking at futures platform. Losses in turmeric is likely to be limited as overall arrival pace has been slower as compared to last year and likely to remain down with each passing week. About 33 thousand tonnes of turmeric arrived in May'24 at major APMC mandies across India against the 61.7 thousand tonnes of previous year for same time period. Arrivals have been lower as production is estimated to be down by 16% Y-o-Y may stand at 9.7 lakh tonnes in MY 2024-25. Fresh government official release on export will the major trigger for the market as export has been subdued so far in year 2024. Turmeric export from India dropped 7% Y-o-y to 17.43 thousand tonnes in Mar'24 wherein total export during Apr'23-Mar'24 reported at 162.0 thousand tonnes down by 4.7 % from previous year. Turmeric prices are expected to trade in range of 16600-19000

Jeera futures slumped from the recent highs mainly due to profit booking. Supplies increased in May'24 on recent gains as farmers and stockists liquidate their stocks on better price realization. About 51 thousand tonnes of jeera arrived at major APMC mandies across during May'24 as compared to 45.7 thousand tonnes of Apr'24 and 22 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. Spot prices which were ruling at premium over futures have now tumbled due to muted buying amid surging supply pressure. Overall production of Jeera is likely to be higher by 30% Y-o-Y may stand near 8.15 lakh tonnes in year 2024- 25. However, jeera export demand has been higher that will cap the majro downfall in prices. Jeera export from India rose 73% Y-o-Y in Mar'24 reported at 32.12 thousand tonnes Stockists are holding most of the stocks in anticipation of rise in prices coming months of year 2024. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 24000-33000.

Dhaniya price dropped on account of profit booking supported by heavy carryforward stocks at major trading centers. Losses in dhaniya is likely to be minimal sue to slower arrival pace. Supplies have dropped as only 38 thousand tonnes of dhaniya arrived at major trading centers across India in May'24 as compared to 45 thousand tonnes of Apr'24 and 97 thousand tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. Export has been higher that will also support firmness in prices. Demand from China and Bangladesh has increased that prompted exporters to buy dhaniya on recent fall in prices. Overall export of dhaniya reported at 94.9 thousand tonnes during Apr'23-Mar'24 higher by 115% Y-o-Y. Overall production of dhaniya is likely to be down by 26% Y-o-Y that will keep the major trend positive in dhaniya. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6900-7800.

BULLIONS

Gold prices have posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain, even as the market struggled for momentum ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading that could provide more insight into the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts later this year. The monthly gains are attributed to central bank buying and lingering geopolitical risks. Latest data revealed that the US GDP grew by 1.3% in the first quarter, below earlier estimates, alongside revised lower headline and PCE price indices. A weaker U.S. GDP read might suggest imminent policy easing, but much depends on inflation progress. Moreover, initial unemployment claims rose in the recent week but stayed above this year's average, suggesting a softening labor market, while corporate profits unexpectedly declined. Focus now turns to the PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, to shed more light on the central bank's policy outlook. Meanwhile, traders have reduced expectations for rate cuts after Fed officials recently adopted a hawkish stance, indicating a prolonged path to the 2% inflation target. While bullion is considered an inflation hedge, higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. On Comex, gold prices are stuck between $2,320 and $2,400; a break on either side will define the next course for gold. Silver, on the other hand, may see a correction, potentially finding support near $30.40 and resistance around $33.00. In the coming week, gold prices on MCX may find support near 70,500 and face resistance near 73,000. Silver may trade in the range of 90,000 to 96,000, with mixed views on its direction.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil experienced a roller coaster ride this week, ending with flat returns as economic concerns undermined prices. The fear that interest rates will remain elevated for longer sparked risk-off sentiment in financial markets, negatively impacting crude prices. A decline in the S&P 500 to a two-week low dampened confidence in the economic outlook, bearish for energy demand and crude prices. Despite a weaker dollar, crude prices retreated on Thursday after weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected. Weak U.S. economic news further pressured energy demand and crude prices. Weekly initial unemployment claims rose by 3,000 to 219,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expected. Additionally, April pending home sales fell by 7.7% month-overmonth, the biggest decline in over three years, compared to an expected 1.0% drop. Q1 GDP was revised downward to 1.3% from 1.6%, further signaling economic weakness. The crude crack spread's decline to a three-and-a-quarter month low is bearish for oil prices, as it discourages refiners from purchasing crude oil to refine into gasoline and distillates. Looking ahead, crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile, heavily influenced by news. The expected trading range is 6,250 to 6,680. Natural gas prices saw a sharp fall after weekly inventories rose more than expected. A mixed weather outlook also pressured nat-gas prices, as NatGasWeather forecast moderate temperatures in the eastern U.S. from June 6-13, reducing nat-gas demand for air conditioning. In the coming week, natural gas prices may continue to experience mixed movements, with support around 200 and resistance near 240.

BASE METALS

Base metal prices may trade with bearish bias due to disappointing Chinese manufacturing data that curbing metals demand, particularly in top consumer China, where recent consumption already slumped due to recent price rally. As per official factory survey, the Chinese official purchasing managers' index fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and missing a median forecast of 50.4 in a Reuters poll. However, China's renewed policy emphasis on stabilizing the housing market, combined with energy transition efforts, continues to bolster metals demand. The International Monetary Fund now expects China's economy to grow 5% this year, raising its forecast from 4.6% earlier this year to reflect a strong expansion at the start of 2024 and additional support from the government. Copper may trade in the range of 865-895. Weak spot demand, robust imports and rising domestic output have combined to keep China's exchange inventories high. Zinc can trade in range of 260-280. SMM predicts that domestic refined zinc production in May 2024 will increase by 26,800 mt from the previous month to 531,400 mt, a yearon-year decrease of 5.86%, and the cumulative production from January to May will be 2.631 million mt due to the production resumption after maintenance and increase in output at smelters in many provinces. Lead can move in the range of 186-195. Aluminium can trade in the range of 236-252. Demand for the metal has been robust, underpinned by solar and electric vehicle sectors. A global producer offered Japanese buyers a premium of $175 per metric ton for JulySeptember, an increase of 18% to 21% quarter-on-quarter, indicating rising demand for aluminium.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET



TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: JUNE
M*.High: 953.45
M*.Low: 772.00

It closed at Rs. 874.00 on 30th May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 885.33. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.73. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 885 for a target of Rs. 860 with the stop loss of 900.

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: JUNE
M*.High: 7279.00
M*.Low: :6345.00

It closed at Rs. 6488.00 on 30th May 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.6580.63. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.69. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 6600 for a target of Rs. 6250 with the stop loss of 6800.

TURMERIC NCDEX
Contract: JUNE
M*.High: 20174.00
M*.Low: 12922.00

It closed at Rs. 17872.00 on 30th May 2024. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 18597.08. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.60. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.18000 for a target of Rs.17000 with the stop loss of 18500.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India's maize exports fell to a four-year low in the 2023- 24 period, experiencing a 58 percent decline in volume. The country's maize exports declined to 14.42 lakh tonnes during 2023-24 from the previous year's 34.53 lakh tonnes as per the official data.
  • The southwest monsoon that contributes 70 per cent of the annual rainfall, hit India's mainland on 30th May, two days ahead of its normal schedule. The monsoon also advanced into most parts of northeast India six days before the normal date as well as some parts of Tamil Nadu.
  • Wheat procurement for the Rabi marketing season 2024-25 has surpassed last year's total, reaching 26.3 million tonnes, with significant contributions from Punjab and Haryana.
  • India imported a record 4,172 metric tons of silver during January to April, up from 455 tons in the same period a year ago, said a government official.
  • RBI brings back 100 tonnes of gold reserves from UK vaults.
  • Global crude steel output declined by 5 per cent in April 2024 to 155.7 million tonnes (mt) compared with 164 mt in the corresponding period a year ago. According to the World Steel Association (worldsteel), top producer China's output declined to 85.9 mt in April, down by 7.2 per cent from the year-ago period. India reported a 3.6 per cent rise in production at 12.1 mt.
  • A global producer offered Japanese buyers a premium of $175 per metric ton for July-September, an increase of 18% to 21% quarter-on-quarter
  • SMM predicts that domestic refined zinc production in May 2024 will increase by 26,800 mt from the previous month to 531,400 mt, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%, and the cumulative production from January to May will be 2.631 million mt

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

The CRB Index saw a correction amid a bounce in the dollar index, though the dollar index ultimately closed in the red. In the bullion market, gold traded within a range and experienced a slight increase, while silver displayed significant volatility. Gold closed near 72,000, whereas silver hit a record high of 96,484 before closing around 94,150 due to profit booking. Gold futures speculators have maintained net long positions relative to open interest at their highest levels since 2020, a trend that began in mid-March and has remained steady. In base metals, aluminum closed in positive territory, and lead futures also managed to close higher, buoyed by positive sentiment from China. However, copper and zinc, both strong commodities in this sector, closed lower due to profit booking from higher levels. Copper reached a record high of 945.9 before closing near 873 last week following substantial profit booking. The price differential between COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME) has been supportive of LME prices amid market consolidation. The market has tightened since the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to shutdowns at the Cobre Panama mine and reduced output guidance from various producers. In macroeconomic news, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.3% in the first quarter, a significant revision down from the initial estimate of 1.6% and considerably lower than the 3.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. In the energy sector, crude oil traded higher initially but gave up all its weekly gains later. Oil prices fell again on Thursday after the U.S. government reported weak fuel demand and a surprise increase in gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles. Both benchmarks were heading for monthly losses, with Brent futures on track for a decline of more than 6% from the previous month, while WTI was poised for a slide exceeding 4.5%. Natural gas futures ended the week in positive territory, although some gains were erased later in the week.

In the agricultural sector, the guar counter remained range-bound due to mixed triggers, with guar seed prices rising slightly. In spices, coriander traded marginally higher due to slow down in arrival. Arrivals dropped with fall in prices and prices found support, turmeric saw a significant drop, and jeera closed weakly but with less intensity. Exports enquires are bleak and likely to remain slow as per export seasonality that will restrict the major gains in prices. Prices spread between spot and futures ruled near 1460 points with fall in spot prices. Most of the stocks of jeera are still with stockists and they will release their stocks only on better realization. Cotton prices increased due to seasonal demand. Arrivals are likely to remain down as about 292 lakh bales has arrived out of 309.7 lakh bales of production in year 2023-24 as per Cotton Association of India. Mentha oil remained firm on improved supply condition, as new arrivals are likely to increase in central region. India exported about 309 tonnes of mentha oil during Feb'24 as compared to 210tonnes of previous year showed by government recent release.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Aluminum……. expected to grow as the energy transition gathers pace.

Aluminum is the second most important metal after steel due to widely use in the automotive, construction, aerospace industries and household appliances and utensils. So investors like aluminum as it is traded the most on the exchanges across the world.

Aluminum prices hit their highest level in more than 2 years recently due to recent supply disruptions of key material alumina and robust demand from top consumer China this year, mainly underpinned by solar and electric vehicles sectors and the UK and the US's decision to ban the trade of Russian metals. LME prices for the metal used in the aerospace industry and canned goods have risen almost 17% while in SHFE & MCX the prices have risen 11% & 20% respectively in this year to date. The uncertain meteorological conditions in China's Yunnan province threatened hydroelectric power availability for aluminum producers, further exacerbating supply worries. Declining stockpiles of the metal at LME-monitored warehouses also provided the support. Aluminum was also buoyed by supply worries after Rio Tinto declared force majeure on third-party contracts for alumina exports from its refineries in Queensland, Australia.

Major factors of affecting the prices

  • According to the data released by the International Aluminium Institute, world's primary aluminum output was 5.9 million tonnes in April 2024, compared to 6.09 million tonnes in March 2024 and 5.71 million tonnes in April 2023.shocks.
  • The year-on-year increase in production during April 2024 was primarily driven by demand recovery in manufacturing sectors, like automobile, packaging, and solar power, reduced production costs, and higher profit margin due to bullish aluminium benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange.
  • In Jan-Apr 2024, World primary aluminium production grows 4% Y-o-Y due to demand recovery and reduced production costs
  • China's primary aluminium production climbed 7.2% to 3.58 million metric tons in April from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
  • For the first four months of the year, China produced 14.24 million metric tons of aluminium, up 7.1% from a year earlier, the data showed.
  • China's April imports of unwrought aluminium and products jumped 72.1% on-year to 380,000 metric tons, customs data showed. That brought imports in the first four months to 1.49 million tons, up 86.6%from the same period a year earlier. The surging imports this year were attributed to higher flows from Russia.
  • Following the latest sanctions on Russian metals by the U.S. and Britain over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, more Russian aluminium is expected to flow into China.
  • Imports of bauxite, a key raw material for aluminium, climbed 18.8%to 14.24 million tons in April, the customs data showed.
  • Imports of bauxite in the first four months stood at 50.5 million tons, up 6.2% from a year earlier.
  • A global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers a premium of $175 per metric ton for July-September primary metal shipments, up 18% to 21% from the current quarter, three sources directly involved in quarterly pricing talks said.
  • The increase reflected tighter supply in Asia due to strong demand from European customers. Higher premiums in Europe were attracting global producers to send supply to the region. Premiums in North America were also much higher than in Asia.
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IPO

NTPC Green IPO to fetch over Rs.8,000 cr, says CMD

NTPC would seek to raise around “a billion dollars” - over `8,300 crore - at current exchange rate through the initial public offering (IPO) of its whollyowned subsidiary NTPC Green Energy (NGEL), chairman and MD Gurdeep Singh told FE. The NGEL issue is scheduled to hit the market early in the second half of the current fiscal, Singh added. “Our balance sheet is very robust and healthy, and we can raise money easily. However, as a stated objective, we will go for 10% to start with, followed by 15% through OFS (offer for sale),” Singh said, adding that the green arm is tipped to outgrow the parent. The followon offer will enable NGEL to meet the regulatory requirement of minimum 25% public float.

Nvidia-Backed Cloud AI Startup CoreWeave Seeks IPO: Report

CoreWeave, the cloud AI startup heavily backed by Nvidia and private equity firms, is reportedly seeking to become a public company in 2025 fresh off a $1.1 billion funding round. The Roseland, N.J.-based startup this month raised $1.1 billion which increased CoreWeave's valuation to a whopping $19 billion, almost tripling its $7 billion valuation at the start of 2024. Additionally, the startup recently received a $7.5 billion debt package led by private equity firms Blackstone, Magnetar and Coatue. CoreWeave is now preparing to hit the public markets next year with an IPO expected by the first half of 2025, according to a report by The Information.

Solar pumps maker Oswal Pumps said to plan Rs 2,000 crore IPO

Oswal Pumps Ltd., a manufacturer of solar and other kinds of pumps, plans to come out with a Rs 2,000 crore initial public offering,. “The company is working with investment banks JM Financial, IIFL, Axis Capital, CLSA and Nuvama to prepare its draft red herring prospectus and the draft prospectus is expected to be filed in the next couple of months,” one person said. “The IPO will include a mix of primary and secondary share sales. The company will use the capital to expand its manufacturing capacity, working capital requirements and other purposes.”

Temasek and MOPE-backed Molbio Diagnostics kickstarts IPO prep, aims Rs 22,000-24,000 cr valuation

Singapore investment major Temasek and Motilal Oswal Private Equity (MOPE)-backed diagnostics chain Molbio Diagnostics has kickstarted work to launch an initial public offer in FY25 and raise around Rs 2,200 crore to Rs 2,400 crore, three persons in the know told Moneycontrol. "The advisors' syndicate was finalized recently and includes Kotak Mahindra Capital, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Jefferies and IIFL Capital. The firm is targeting a valuation of Rs 22,000 crore to Rs 24,000 crore," said one of the persons mentioned above. Molbio Diagnostics became Goa's first startup to hit unicorn status in September 2022 after raising around Rs 680 crore from Temasek and existing investor MOPE.

Hero FinCorp approves Rs 4,000 crore IPO with fresh issue and offer for sale

A diversified financial services company, Hero FinCorp offers two-wheeler financing, advances for buying homes in the affordable housing segment, loans for education, and lends to the small and medium enterprise sector. The lender has presence in over 4,000 cities and towns across India and nearly 2,000 retail financing touchpoints within Hero MotoCorp's network. Hero MotoCorp owns around 40 per cent stake in Hero Fincorp, the promoters, the Munjal family hold around 35-39 per cent while the balance is held by private equity investors like Apollo Global, ChrysCapital, Credit Suisse and some dealers of HeroMoto Corp.

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Helios Mutual Fund launches financial services fund

Helios Mutual Fund has launched Helios Financial Services Fund, an open-ended equity scheme investing in the financial services sector. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme will open for subscription on May 31 and it will close on June 14. The scheme will reopen for sale and repurchase on June 25. The scheme will be benchmarked against the NIFTY Financial Services Total Return Index (TRI).

TRUST Mutual Fund appoints Jalpan Shah as head of fixed income

TRUST Mutual Fund has announced the appointment of Jalpan Shah as the head of fixed income with effect from May 21. The fund house announced his appointment through a notice-cum-addendum. Prior to joining TRUST Mutual Fund, Shah served as Senior Vice President at HSBC Mutual Fund, where he played a pivotal role in managing substantial AUM in the fixed income space.

Union Mutual Fund files a draft document with Sebi for a multi-asset allocation fund

Union Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for a multi-asset allocation fund. Union Multi Asset Allocation Fund will be an open-ended scheme, investing in equity, debt, gold and/or silver. The investment objective of the scheme will be to generate long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of equity and equity-related instruments, debt and money market instruments, units of Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and/or Silver ETFs and units of REITs &am .. The scheme will be benchmarked against 65% Nifty 50 TRI + 20% CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index + 15% Domestic price of Gold. Hardick Bora, Sanjay Bembalkar, and Anindya Sarkar are fund managers to the scheme.

3 mutual fund houses lead the charge with offerings in quant space

Quantitative (quant) investing, which employs mathematical models to make investment decisions, is catching the fancy of domestic mutual funds (Mfs). Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF is set to launch its fund in this category next month, while SBI MF and Motilal Oswal MF have filed papers with the regulator for approval.The investing style, which MFs can offer through the thematic route, hasn't gained much traction in India, even as the majority of the existing schemes have completed three years

JM Mutual Fund launches smallcap fund

JM Mutual Fund has launched JM Small Cap Fund, an open-ended equity scheme predominantly investing in smallcap stocks. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on June 10. The scheme will reopen for continuous sale and repurchase on June 25. The scheme is benchmarked against Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI. The scheme will be managed by Asit Bhandarkar, Chaitanya Choksi, and Gurvinder Singh Wasan.

Zerodha Mutual Fund launches two passive funds

Zerodha Mutual Fund has announced the launch of two new offerings — Zerodha Nifty 100 ETF and Zerodha Nifty Midcap 150 ETF. These two schemes are open-ended, passive, equity exchange traded funds (ETFs). The new fund offer or NFO of these schemes is open for subscription and will close on June 7. Zerodha Nifty 100 ETF replicates performance of Nifty 100 Total Returns Index (TRI), while Zerodha Nift .

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund launches Motilal Oswal Multi Cap Fund

Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund has announced the launch of a multicap fund. 'Motilal Oswal Multi Cap Fund is an open-ended equity scheme that aims to benefit from investing in opportunities across large, mid and smallcap companies. The new fund offer or the NFO of the scheme will open for subscription from May 28 and it will close on June 11The investment objective of the scheme is to achieve long term capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity-related instruments of large, mid and smallcap companies.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts





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