In the week gone by, the growing concern surrounding the deteriorating Ukraine Icrisis pushed global stock markets into volatile zone. Already inflation and rising interest rates are the major concerns for global stock markets and now geopolitical tension has increased the risk of inflation as energy prices are rising. On the flip side, the heightened geopolitical tensions and their possible impact on global growth have led investors to believe that US Federal Reserve will slow down its aggressive interest rate hike pitch going ahead. Meanwhile, the US, EU and Japan are putting on a united front to support Ukraine and agreed on the second tranche of economic and financial sanctions on Russia. On another development, better-thanexpected GDP and initial jobless claims data from the US gave some solace to market participants. The attack on Ukraine caused crude oil prices to surge to more than $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.
Back at home, the domestic stock market too witnessed volatile movement tracking escalated geopolitical tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. Spooked by the Ukraine crisis, foreign institutional investors continue to remain on selling side. Investors are globally tracking news flow on the Russia-Ukraine crisis closely. Moody's Investors Service raised its GDP growth forecast for India to 9.5% for the current calendar year from 7% earlier, citing a stronger-than-expected economic recovery from the national lockdown of 2020 and the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in mid-2021. There is fear among investors that sustained rise in oil would have adverse impacts on Asia’s economies like India. Going forward, market will continue to witness volatile trade. Since the situation remains tense, investors may remain cautious and vigilant. For long-term investors there are buying opportunities in high quality stocks that have corrected significantly. UP election results, LIC IPO and Fed meet on interest rate hikes will continue to be important events, going forward.
Back at home, CRB continued to move up as Russia’s attack in Ukraine raised the safe haven buying in bullion and on supply side fear in other commodities; including energy, grains and metals. Crude prices are likely to remain volatile and elevated, though US didn’t sanction Russia on energy. One factor that could act as a temporary brake on prices is the Iran nuclear deal with rumors swirling around that a new agreement could be announced. Crude is likely to trade in a range of 6600-7600. Bullion will remain hot favorite for the traders as concerns are yet to get over. Base metals may see pause in the rally. GDP of Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Italy and India, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, RBA Interest Rate Decision, Inflation Rate, Full Year GDP Growth and Government Budget of Italy, Inflation Rate, Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate of Germany, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and ISM Manufacturing PMI of US, CPI Flash and Core Inflation Rate Euro Area, BoC Interest Rate Decision, are loads of data which will impact commodities prices apart from Russia and Ukraine tension.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The bank has been consistently delivering on improving asset quality, cost efficiency, other income and productivity in the past few quarters. The Management is confident of improvement in incremental disbursement with better credit monitoring. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.254 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target P/Bv of 0.70x and FY21 BVPS of Rs.363.15.
The company has strong balance sheet with very low debt. The new product launches, increases in government and private capex cycle and recovery in broader consumption across various market segments, the management of the company is expecting sustainable revenue growth going forward. Moreover, with the stabilization of supply chain situation, the margins are also expected to improve as it has managed in the past. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1148 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/Ex of 33x and FY23 EPS of Rs.34.78.
The stock closed at Rs 544.85 on 25th February, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 498.05 on 24th February, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 658.95 on 24th September, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 569.99
The stock has recently formed a double bottom pattern formation with positive divergence on RSI indicator where the bottom was formed near 530 levels, which happen to be multiple price reversal zones. While as per Fibonacci retracement, the bottom is formed near 50% retracement from 390 bottoms to 660 top levels. A break above 560 level would give further bullish confirmation for to rally near 585- 600 levels in near term. A break above 600 would give additional confirmation as prices would be breaking 200 DMA levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 535-540 levels for the upside target of 585-600 levels with SL below 510 levels.
The stock closed at Rs 533.90 on 25th February, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 305.40 on 25th March, 2021 and a 52-week high of Rs. 553.85 on 11th February, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 442.44
Metals as a sector has been outperforming and while Hindalco has been outperforming in comparison with its peer stocks has formed a bullish Gartely pattern on charts which happens to be a bullish harmonic pattern with RSI forming positive reversal on daily chart near 50 levels which indicates strength in prices. As long as 500 is protected on downside, an upside rally near 550-570 can be expected in near term. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 525-530 levels for the upside target of 565-580 levels with SL below 490 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
Charts by Reliable software
Bears took control over Indian markets in the week gone by as sharp selloff was witnessed across the sectors as Russia's invasion over Ukraine spurred India VIX towards 20-month high. From technical front, Nifty has breached its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts, which is placed at 16720 levels. From the derivative front, option writers were seen shifting towards far strikes which points towards high volatility in coming week as well. On another hand, Bank Nifty somehow still managed to close above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts on the back of sharp short covering, seen in Friday's session, as March series begins on positive note. Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 26.92% while that for put options closed at 27.49%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 31.98% and is expected to remain volatile. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.95. For upcoming week, we expect markets to remain on roller coaster ride with bias likely to remain in favour of bears. On downside, 36000-35500 zone would act as strong support for Bank nifty while 16400-16200 zone is likely to give support to Nifty.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric futures (Apr) closed lower last week on report of new season arrivals and reports that the exports to European countries may be affected due to war situations. New season turmeric is hitting the physical market but the arrival volume is still low as compared to expectations of the market participants. In the coming week, we expect the prices to trade lower towards 8660 levels with major resistance at 10050 levels. Turmeric prices stayed steady in the physical markets while futures are sharply down due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. Currently, the prices are up about 12.5% y/y on expectation of lower production and anticipation improving demand. In the first 9-months (Apr-Dec) of FY 2021/22, exports down 20.7% to 1,16,400 tons compared to last year but higher by 8.8% compared with 5- year average. Jeera futures (Mar) witnessed correction last week after the eight consecutive weeks of higher closing. We have seen fresh selling in the futures market as export demand might be affected due to war like situation. It is likely to correct more in coming week as new season jeera will also hit the market and peak arrivals will be commencing in next one-month time. The physical arrival of old and new crop in Unjha improved to around 12000/13000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) daily compared to less than 5000 bags last week. In the New Year, jeera prices have jumped more than 27% and currently prices are higher by 53.4% y/y due to lower production and crop damage due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. In 2021/22, area under Jeera in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh ha Vs 4.69 lakh hac last year and according to 2nd advance estimates production expected to fall by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes Vs 4.0 lt last year. As per Govt. data, exports of jeera for Apr- Dec down by 24% Y/Y at 1.74 lakh tonnes compared to 2.30 lt last year. Dhaniya futures (Apr) slipped to 3-weeks low of a sharp sell-off last week from the higher levels. Now the resistance is seen at 11300 levels and support at 9780 levels. The prices may trade towards its support if it breaks 10500 levels. Currently prices are higher by 45.7% y/y and up 18.8% since January due to lower area as farmers have shifted to other crops due to low returns last year and expecting lesser production while the exports are normal due to higher prices. As per govt. data, exports have been down 13% during Apr-Dec period at 37,500 tonnes Vs 43,100 tonnes last year but 11% higher compared to 5-year average.
Gold rose, stabilizing after big swings in the week where prices jumped as much as 5% before closing lower, as investors reassessed the fallout of the Ukraine crisis and fresh sanctions imposed by the West against Russia. In the near term, investors are still digesting, still assessing the risks and rewards as a result of the Ukraine invasion and the implications of Western sanctions on Russia. On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to stay in Kyiv as his troops battled Russian invaders who are advancing toward the capital in the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two. February has proved to be the perfect storm for gold - with inflation, falling stock markets and geo-political uncertainty boosting its safe-haven appeal. ETFs that invest in gold and other precious metals have seen massive inflows as investors rush to shield themselves against the rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Data from Refinitiv Lipper showed gold and other precious metal ETFs have seen an inflow of $4.7 billion this year, after witnessing outflows worth $7.8 billion last year. The SPDR Gold Shares led with inflows worth $3.2 billion, while iShares Silver Trust and iShares Gold Trust received over $400 million each. Also, physical gold held by exchange-traded funds has risen 2.1% to 69.5 million ounces this year, according to data from Refinitiv. Wall Street's main indexes slumped as the prospect of harsh Western sanctions against Russia over its conflict with Ukraine kept investors on edge. Ahead in the week prices, may continue to witness huge volatility where both side movements may be witnessed and the trading range would be 49000-53000 levels. Silver may also witness huge volatility and trade in the range of 62500-68900 levels.
Oil prices jumped, with Brent rising above $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014 before easing, after Russia's attack on Ukraine exacerbated concerns about disruptions to global energy supply. Global oil prices have jumped over 30% since November on a sharp increase in demand due to the reopening of global economies as COVID-19 pandemic subsided on higher vaccination rates. However, global supply has failed to keep up with demand leading to a tight market in crude oil that led analysts to predict $100 per barrel crude oil later this year. After talking with allies from the G7, US President Biden announced measures to impede Russia's ability to do business in the world's major currencies, along with sanctions against banks and state-owned companies. Ahead in the week, prices are likely to continue the bull trend and any dip near support is considered as buying opportunity. Although the rally has been over stretched and we may also witness profit booking from higher levels. For the week, the trading range for crude would be 6950-7480 levels. Natural gas markets have rallied throughout the week as Russia invades the Ukraine. Because of this, there were quite a bit of large orders thrown into the market to pick up natural gas as there were concerns about supply. Natural gas is still flowing through the Ukraine pipeline, and into the European Union. Furthermore, we are getting close to the end of the winter in the northern climates, so natural gas demand is going to drop anyway. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade in the range of 330-370 levels.
Base metals may trade in the range with positive bias as the prices are getting support on fears of supply disruptions as the West imposed a slew of sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine. China's housing minister pledged to keep the real estate market stable this year and ensure genuine demand for homes is met, after a series of regulations aimed at reining in debt in the sector unsettled buyers and prompted a marked slowdown in the key property sector. The London Metal Exchange is ready to ensure market stability, if sanctions by Western allies impact trading of key industrial metals produced by Russia such as aluminium and nickel, the LME said. European Union leaders imposed new economic sanctions, joining the United States and others in taking steps including curbing Russia's access to technologies and halting its banks' access to European financial markets. Copper may trade in the range 745-800 levels. Zinc can move in the range of 290-310 levels. Lead can move in the range of 182-190 levels. Nickel may trade in the range of 1770-1920 levels. Nickel recently hit an 11-year high as stockpiles have dwindled at the LME due to strong demand from automakers. An intensification of sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine could push prices higher. In addition, the export and transportation of ferronickel in Ukraine may also be affected, and the nickel supply will be disturbed in the short term. Aluminum may move towards 280 levels with support of 260 levels on persisting supply concern. Smelter shutdowns in China and in Europe due to high energy costs and invasion of Russia over Ukraine have continued to dampen the aluminium supply.
Cotton futures (Feb) closed lower for the second consecutive week due to profit booking at higher levels. The trend is still positive as the supplies outpaced demand. Currently resistance is at all-time high levels of 38630 and support at 36550 levels. Current domestic prices are high 70.66% y/y and jumped about 8.9% in the New Year due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. In the second advance estimates, govt has cut cotton production in the country to 340 lakh bales from 362 lakh bales in first estimate. Meanwhile, farmers left with limited stock of kapas, while ginners are unwilling to sell the bales by lowering the price. The weather is clear in the kapas growing areas that help in easy transport to mandies. Thus, the daily arrivals of kapas will increase. Moreover, if Russian- Ukrainian situation further escalates, then cotton exports from India as well as US will suffer. Hence, there is now little chance of a significant increase in the price of cotton in the global market. In its latest February report, the USDA cut output by 500,000 bales as a slow pace for market arrivals indicates weaker than expected yields. Guar seed futures (Mar) witnessed a sharp weekly fall and now immediate support at 5670. If this support is broken, the price may trade lower towards 5510 levels with resistance at 6200 levels. Currently, prices are up 49% y/y on reports of weakest production in last 5 years, multi-year lower stocks and improving export demand due to higher crude oil prices. The oil rig count is also higher by about 248 compared to last year. In Dec, Guar gum exports are higher by 34.3% y/y at 32420 tonnes while exports in 2021/22 (Apr-Dec) are up by 42.4% y/y at 2.41 lakh tonnes. Higher crude oil prices and increase in rig count in the US is supporting guar prices. Castor Seed (Mar) slipped to 2-week low last week after it touched all-time higher in the previous week. It recovered nicely due to fresh buying by the market participants at lower prices. We expect it to trade in a range 6600-7200. Currently castor prices are higher by 55% y/y, as production of castor expected to be lowest in last three years. As per second advance estimates, castor output is pegged at 15.08 lakh tonnes, down about 8.5% from last year production. Gujarat agriculture department’s second advance estimate cut castor seed production by 1-lakh tonnes to 13.02 lt compared 14 lt in the first estimate. Last year production was 13.45 lt. Castor oil exports during Apr-Dec is at par with the last year export volume at 5.15 lakh tonnes. However, castor meal exports down 4.64% during the same period.
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LEAD MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 186.90 on 24th Feb 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 193.00 on 19th Jan’2022 and a low of Rs. 180.90 on 19th Jan’2022. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 185.96. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.711.
One can buy near Rs. 184 for a target of Rs. 191 with the stop loss of 180.
ALUMINIUM MCX (MAR) contract was closed at Rs. 271.20 on 24th Feb’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 280.00 on 24th Feb’2022 and a low of Rs. 240.00 on 02nd Feb’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 258.48. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68.322.
One can buy near Rs. 265 for a target of Rs. 278 with the stop loss of Rs 260.
GUARGUM NCDEX (MAR)contract closed at Rs. 10580.00 on 24th Feb’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 12507.00 on 19th Jan’2022 and a low of Rs. 10555.00 on 25th Feb’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 11531.21. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.490.
One can buy near Rs. 10500 for a target of Rs. 11400 with the stop loss of Rs. 10050.
CRB continued to move up as Russia’s attack in Ukraine raised the safe haven buying in bullion and supply side fear in other important commodities; including energy, grains and metals. Fall in equity market also made commodities more attractive for traders and commodities saw jump despite rise in dollar index. Gold traded near its highest level in more than eight months as tensions around Ukraine intensified, boosting demand for the haven asset. Oil breached $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 on Thursday as Russia moved troops into Ukraine, sparking concerns that a war in Europe could disrupt global energy supplies. Russia has launched a fullscale invasion of Ukraine and is targeting cities with weapons strikes. Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer, which mainly sells crude to European refineries, and is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, providing about 35% of its supply. Iran on Wednesday, however, urged Western powers to be "realistic" in talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, and said its top negotiator was returning to Tehran for consultations, suggesting a breakthrough in its discussions is not imminent. Gold prices rose on Thursday towards a nine-month high hit earlier last week, as investors sought refuge in safe havens after Ukraine declared an emergency and the West imposed more sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine. Base metals prices moved up on war issue. The global world refined copper market showed a 79,000 tonnes deficit in November, compared with a 34,000 tonnes deficit in October, ICSG said; despite those copper prices increased. Aluminium and nickel prices hit multi-year highs after Russia ordered troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, raising fears of war and sanctions on Moscow that could interrupt Russian exports. Russia produces around 6% of the world's aluminium and 7% of its mined nickel. Global primary aluminium output in January fell 4.5% year-on-year to 5.513 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed.
Jeera fell from the higher side on reports lower production due to less area and crop damage due to excessive dew in the state of Gujarat and Rajasthan. New season arrivals kept turmeric prices in the check. Dhaniya saw fall from higher side as market expect some pressure in coming days with increasing arrivals from the new season crop. Cotton, kapas and cotton oil seeds cake all prices witnessed correction. Currently, prices in physical market also softened due to steady demand from the mills at higher prices.
Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe over Russia's invasion in Ukraine as well as stern sanctions against Russia are fueling fears of supply shocks in the commodity markets that triggered the prices of some of the commodities worldwide. Russia and Ukraine are big suppliers of grain, metals and other commodities.
Gold : Gold prices are already rising globally amid the ongoing conflict and after Putin's latest move in eastern Ukraine, the gold hit a near nine-month high. This combination of an escalation in geopolitical tensions as Russia moved troops into the sovereign nation of Ukraine and the high likelihood that inflationary pressures will continue to rise, has been highly supportive of gold prices. Russia is the thirdlargest producer of gold globally.
Crude Oil :After Putin's latest announcement, oil jumped to more than sevenyear high and Brent crude crossed the $100-a-barrel mark, first time since 2014, as the tensions have led to supply disruption fears in an already-tight commodity market. Important to note that Russia is an oil and gas powerhouse, as the country is pumping about nine million barrels of crude oil a day.
One factor that could act as a temporary brake on prices is the Iran nuclear deal with rumors swirling around that a new agreement could be announced, possibly as early as this week. The jump in oil is compounding worries about inflation around the world, with the Federal Reserve coming under intense pressure to tighten monetary policy to prevent prices from running out of control.
Natural gas: The ongoing conflict will be result in much higher prices for natural gas as Russia is a leading producer of natural gas. As per BP data, the country pumped about 639 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021, which was nearly 17 per cent of global production of 3.854 trillion cubic meters. The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on the company in charge of building Russia`s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The sanctions add to pressure on the Baltic Sea project that was designed to double the gas flow capacity from Russia to Germany. Germany derives most of its energy needs for manufacturing and electricity from the natural gas it gets from Russia.
Copper: USGS data shows that Russia produced 920,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2021, about 3.5% of the world total, out of which Nornickel produced 406,841 tonnes. Europe and Asia are two major export markets for Russia and the ongoing conflict is likely to impact exports resulting in higher prices globally.
Aluminium : The conflict could result in a potential supply shock in the aluminium market, which is already tight as Russia accounts for approximately 6 per cent of the global aluminium supply. The prices of aluminium are near multi-year highs and there's a possibility that it could still rise further. Europe, Asia and North America are Rusal's, the world's largest aluminium producer, main markets. Miner and commodity trader Glencore has a long-term deal running until 2025 to buy primary aluminium from Rusal.
Nickel: Nickel price hit decade high driven by dwindling global inventories and concerns that Ukraine issue could disrupt supplies from key producer Russia. Nornickel is the world's top producer of refined nickel. It produced 193,006 tonnes in 2021 or about 7% of global mine production estimated at 2.7 million tonnes. The latest events keep supply risk for the metal particularly high, especially as inventories are already at very low levels.
Rupee lost nearly 1.5% this week ended on Thursday. The biggest loss for rupee recorded when Russia announced military operations as against Ukraine. Accordingly, rupee faced the biggest intraday dropped in last eight months to close at 75.65. Later markets retreated on modest term after Biden's soft stance to intervene apart from the sanctions list against Russia. However, the uncertain cloud from Russia front is not yet over as Ukrainian officials claimed to face attack in their capital which may keep riskier assets lower including rupee as well. On a weekly basis, USDINR may face steep resistance around 76.20 levels on spot while support stands at 75.04 levels with an upside bias for next week. From the majors, EURUSD dropped to the lowest level in two years while constantly maintaining crucial support of 84.00 on spot while GBPUSD faced the steep fall yesterday by 200 pips amid risk-off sentiment tank global markets. Apparently JPYINR likely to outperform in coming days as risk-off sentiment still drives the markets which can push USDJPY to drift below 115.00 and may lift JPYINR towards 65.90 as well.
USD/INR (MAR) contract closed at 75.9825 on 24-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 76.0275 on 24-Feb-21 and a low of 74.6375 on 21 Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 75.0750.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57.98.One can buy at 75.25 for the target of 76.25 with the stop loss of 74.75.
GBP/INR (MAR) contract closed at 101.7775 on 24-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 102.1725 on 22-Feb-21 and a low of 101.6025 on 24-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.5840.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.47. One can sell at 101.50 for a target of 100.50 with the stop loss of 102.00.
| 24th FEB | Russia begins full-scale invasion of Ukraine |
| 23th FEB | Putin orders start of ‘military operation’ in Ukraine |
| 23th FEB | UK should bring forward tax rises to fight inflation, IMF says |
| 23th FEB | Biden imposes sanctions on Russia for Ukraine ‘invasion’ |
| 22th FEB | West prepares Russia sanctions after Putin orders troops into Ukraine |
| 21th FEB | UK business activity expands at fastest rate since June |
| 21th FEB | PUTIN: 'NO PROSPECTS' FOR PEACE PLAN TO END UKRAINE CONFLICT |
| 21th FEB | Ukraine says no concrete plans yet for a Putin - Biden meeting. |
| 21th FEB | Biden and Putin agree ‘in principle’ to Ukraine summit |
EUR/INR (MAR) contract closed at 84.9325 on 24-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 85.3350 on 22-Feb-21 and a low of 84.6100 on 24-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 85.0113.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.25. One can sell at 85.00 for a target of 84.00 with the stop loss of 85.50.
JPY/INR (MAR)) contract closed at 66.2300 on 24-Feb-21. The contract made its high of 66.2900 on 24-Feb-21 and a low of 64.8100 on 24-Feb-21 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 65.2565.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.09. One can buy at 65.30 for a target of 66.30 with the stop loss of 64.80.
Adar Poonawalla-backed retail pharmacy chain Wellness Forever, has received approval from markets regulator Sebi to raise Rs 1,600 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). The IPO consists of a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating to Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale up to 16,044,709 equity shares, according to DRHP. As a part of OFS, up to 720,000 equity shares by Ashraf Mohammed Biran, up to 720,000 equity shares by Gulshan Haresh Bhahtiani, up to 120,000 equity shares by Mohan Ganpat Chavan and up to 14,484,709 equity shares by other existing shareholders. The company proposes to utilise net proceeds from the fresh issue to the tune of Rs 70.20 crore for funding capital expenditure for setting up new outlets, repayment/prepayment in part or full of certain borrowings amounting to Rs 100 crore, funding its working capital requirements to the extent of Rs 121.90 cr besides general corporate purposes. The Mumbai-based brand Wellness Forever founded by Ashraf Biran, Gulshan Bakhtiani and Mohan Chavan in 2008, leads in western india and is the country’s third-largest retail pharmacy and wellness network in terms of number of stores. Its pharmacy stores, mostly 24x7, provide a self-browsing and differentiated shopping experience.
Bikaji Foods International Ltd has filed a draft papers with Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to raise funds via initial public offering. The Initial public offering (IPO) consists of a pure offer for sale of upto 29.37 million shares by its existing promoters and shareholders. The OFS comprises of upto 2.5 million shares each by Shiv Ratan Agarwal and Deepak Agarwal. upto 12.11 million shares by India 2020 Maharaja Ltd, 3.11 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund, upto 2 million shares by IILF Special Opportunities FUnd Series 2, upto 0.97 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund Series 3, upto 2.75 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund Series 4, upto 2.16 million shares by IIFL Special Opportunities Fund Series 5 and upto 1.22 million shares by Avendus Future Leaders Fund I. JM Financial, Axis Capital, IIFL Securities, Intensive Fiscal Services and Kotak Mahindra Capital are the lead managers to the issue. Bikaji is one of India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands with an international footprint, selling Indian snacks and sweets, and are among the fastest growing companies in the Indian organised snacks market. The firm is the largest manufacturer of Bikaneri bhujia, packaged rasgulla, soan papdi and gulab jamun with annual production of 26,690 tonnes, 24,000 tonnes, 23,040 tonnes and 12,000 tonnes respectively in fiscal year 2021.The firm was the second largest manufacturer of handmade papads with an annual production capacity of 9,000 tonnes.
Archean Chemical Industries Ltd has sought the approval from the Securities Exchange Board of India to raise funds through an initial public offering. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 1,000 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to 19.07 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS will comprise up to 5.30 million shares by Chemikas Speciality LLP (CS LLP), up to 3.73 million shares by India Resurgence Fund Scheme I (IRF I), up to 6.30 million shares by India Resurgence Fund, Scheme II (IRF II) and up to 3.73 million shares by Piramal Natural Resources Pvt Ltd (PNRPL). CS LLP holds 41 percent stake in the company. IRF I has 7.46 percent stake, IFR II has 12.19 percent, PNRPL has 7.46 percent stake in the firm. IIFL Securities, ICICI Securities Ltd and JM Financial are the lead managers to the issue. The proceeds from the Rs 800-crore issue will be used to redeem non-convertible debentures fully or partly. As of December 2021, the amount outstanding under the borrowing arrangements entered by the firm was Rs 840 crore and interest accrued but not due was Rs 116.67 crore.
Federal Bank Ltd arm Fedbank Financial Services Ltd (FedFina) has filed draft papers with the Securities Exchange Board of India to raise funds via an initial public offering. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of Rs 900 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 45.71 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to 16.50 million shares by Federal Bank and up to 29.22 million shares by True North Fund VI LLP. Currently, Federal Bank holds a 73.31 percent stake while True North Fund VI LLP has a 25.76 percent stake in FedFina. Federal Bank says it will continue to own more than 51 percent of the outstanding share capital post the completion of this offering. The lender believes that its long operating history, track record, management expertise and the 'Federal Bank' brand have enabled it to establish a competitive position in the markets it serves and create trust among its customers, lenders, regulators and investors. The proceeds from the issue will be used for augmenting the company’s Tier–I capital base to meet its future capital requirements, arising out of the growth of business and assets. As of September 30, its capital to risk asset ratio (CRAR) was 25.63 percent, with Tier I capital comprising 20.25 percent. ICICI Securities Limited, Equirus Capital Private Limited, IIFL Securities Limited and JM Financial Ltd are the lead managers to the issue.
Archean Chemical Industries, a leading specialty marine chemical manufacturer in India, has filed its draft red herring prospectus with market regulator Sebi for a ₹2,000-crore initial public offering. The IPO consists of a fresh issue of equity shares up to ₹1,000 crore and an offer for sale of up to 1.91 crore shares by the promoters and investors, including the India Resurgence Fund, a joint venture between the Piramal Group and Bain Capital. The company plans to use the proceeds of the fresh issue to redeem non-convertible debentures issued by the company. This will reduce its outstanding indebtedness debt servicing costs, improve the debt-to-equity ratio and enable utilisation of its internal accruals for further investment in business growth and expansion, according to the DRHP. The company manufactures specialty marine chemicals and is focused on producing and exporting bromine, industrial salt, and sulphate potash to customers worldwide. The company's revenue from operations has grown 21% from ₹608.17 crore in FY20 to ₹740.76 crore in FY21. It reported a revenue of ₹66.6 crore for FY21 compared to a loss of ₹36.24 crore in FY20.
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Kotak Mutual Fund saw it assets under management (AUM) growing 1.66% or Rs 4500 crore month-on-month as the fund house AUM grew from Rs 2,698bn in December to Rs2,743bn in January, showed Edelweiss Alternate Research. ICICI Bank (Rs 7.02 bn), HDFC Bank (Rs 4.80 bn), State Bank of India (Rs 3.81 bn), Reliance Industries Ltd (Rs 3.65 bn) and Infosys (Rs 3.62 bn) were among top 10 holdings of the Kotak MF in the month ended January 2021. Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and Tech Mahindra were among top 5 additions with Rs 3.33bn , Rs3.20bn and Rs2.74bn respectively in the last month, while Kotak Mutual Fund offloaded maximum in Bharti Airtel (Rs3.03bn), TCS (Rs 2.69bn) and Infosys (Rs 2.56 bn) in January. Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund is the 5th largest AMC in terms of AUM. Kotak Mutual Fund total asset under management Rs 2,87, 144 crore in January. It is just below Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund which has AUM of Rs 2,97,947 crore and above Nippon India Mutual Fund Rs 2,85, 374 crore as on January 31, 2022. Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fun runs 68 schemes altogether currently. SBI Mutual Fund, which has the largest AUM of all MFs at Rs 6,44,390 crore, has 143 active schemes till January 31, 2022. Between SBI Mutual Fund and Kotak Mahindra MF, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, HDFC Mutual Fund and Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund are other leading MFs with AUM size of Rs4,87,665 crore, 4,41249 crore and 2,97,94 crore respectively as on January 31, 2022.
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund has launched Mirae Asset Nifty Midcap 150 ETF’, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking Nifty Midcap 150 Total Return Index. The NFO will open for subscription on February 24 and close on March 4. Mirae Asset Nifty Midcap 150 ETF will be managed by Ekta Gala. The minimum initial investment in the scheme during the NFO will be Rs 5,000 and multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The Nifty Midcap 150 Index aims to track the performance of 150 mid-market capitalization companies. According to the fund house, the scheme gives investors an opportunity to participate in the entire midcap segment of the market. The scheme also has a relatively low Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.5% .
Navi Mutual Fund has launched its Navi Nifty Midcap 150 Index Fund, an equity scheme that will replicate the Nifty Midcap 150 Index. According to the fund house, the scheme will provide investors an opportunity to invest in a fund that represents the emerging companies of the country. The fund will have a TER of 0.12% for the direct plan, which is the lowest cost compared to any other index funds in the category, says the fund house. The NFO is open currently and it will close for subscription on 2 March. Navi Nifty Midcap 150 Index Fund (NNM) will seek to replicate the Nifty Midcap 150 Index, which comprises 150 companies (ranked 101-250) based on full market capitalization from the Nifty 500 Index. The Nifty Midcap 150 Index has delivered attractive returns over varied time horizons. Its 1-year, 5-year and 10-year CAGR are 46.1%, 18.7% and 19.6`% respectively. Investors with exposure to large cap stocks can consider investing in mid cap companies to diversify their portfolio, says the fund house.
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