In the past weak, global stock markets witnessed a volatile trade amid rising US bond I yield and worsening situation over the conflict between Hamas and Israel. There is a fear among inventors that the Hamas-Israel conflict may widen into a bigger conflict and drag Iran and other Arab nations into it and this could result in an escalation in crude prices and other supply disruptions, which could potentially keep inflation higher forcing major central bankers to hold or even raise rates further. The US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter, driven by a surge in consumer spending. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) accelerated to 4.9 percent; more than double the second-quarter pace, according to the government’s preliminary estimate. In another development, the ECB left all three of its key interest rates unchanged and noted that while inflation is expected to ‘stay too high for too long’, inflation dropped markedly in September due to strong base effects. Going forward, ECB President Lagarde’s commentary at the upcoming press conference may give Investors across the globe a clearer view of the thinking behind the central bank’s decision. On the Chinese market front, Investors are making a tentative return to China's beaten-down stock markets as the government opened the stimulus taps, including pressing a national fund for support, but they remain mindful the economy and sentiment are still fragile. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has forecast that Germany will overtake Japan this year as the world’s third-largest economy. In its World Economic Outlook released this month, the IMF forecast that Japan’s nominal GDP will decrease 0.2 percent from the previous year to $4.23 trillion (630 trillion yen), while Germany’s will increase 8.4 percent to $4.43 trillion. If it comes true then that would push Japan to fourth place in the world.
Back at home, domestic markets continued to witness volatile trade amid mixed global cues. Notably, the global risk appetite has had already impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. It could be seen that FIIs have been selling significantly in October, and concerns about inflation. Going forward, as investors are worried about the simmering West Asia conflict, economic uncertainty and rate hike woes, we may continue to witness volatile trade.
On the commodity market front, CRB remained trapped in a narrow trading range but managed to close above the 320 level. Dollar Index ended the week on an upward trajectory. 10-year US Treasury Yields also saw an increase in their closing values. Gold, on the flip side, experienced its third consecutive week of gains as investors continued to seek it as a safe haven, partly due to a shift of funds from equities and other riskier assets. Gold and silver may continue to trade firm, if war intensifies. Gold and silver will trade in the range of 59500- 63000 levels and 70000-74500 levels respectively. In the energy segment, Natural Gas can see further upside; upto 320. Inflation Rate and GDP Rate of Germany and France, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Core Inflation and GDP Rate of Euro Area, GDP of Mexico, Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference, Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI, of US, Unemployment Rate of New Zealand, BoE Interest Rate Decision, Unemployment Rate of Germany etc are many important data and events that are scheduled this week which will keep traders on toes.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
According to the management of the company, it has strengthened its capabilities by expanding civil business in the international markets, adding large size orders in T&D in India and international markets, and ventured into newer areas like airports, solar EPC, data centers etc. The growing need for infrastructure development and higher adoption of renewables has resulted in a strong business momentum. The company has strong balance sheet and is continuously working on improving its working capital, return ratios and project closures along with divesting its non-core assets, which provides good visibility for growth in coming quarters. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 723 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 2.2x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.328.36
With a combination of strong tailwinds in its operating segments and its strategic initiatives, the company is confident to deliver a healthy top line going forward. To achieve these targets, its ICE segment is expected to perform well on the back of the component client additions. The newer initiatives like aluminum forged and other components are expected to grow at much faster rate going forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1032 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a two year average P/BV of 3.91x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs. 263.91.
The stock closed at Rs.1290.65 on 27th October, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.911.25 on 16th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1379.95 on 11th August, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1191.
In recent past, the stock made its 52 week low of 911.25 in month of March 2023 and given a V shape recovery into the prices to once again reclaim a move above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily time frame. The Stock took rally from 911 levels towards 1380 levels in short span of time. At current juncture, the stock has given a fresh breakout, on charts, after a series of prolong consolidation phase of nearly eleven weeks. Breakout has been observed above the falling trend line of downward sloping channel. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1280-1290 levels for the upside target of 1440-1450 levels with SL below 1180 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.665.35 on 27th October, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.484.45 on 28th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.726 on 09th November 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.599.
The Stock has been trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern on weekly charts while prices are also holding well above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval as well. At current juncture, the stock has given a fresh breakout above the Ascending triangle pattern visible on weekly interval. The breakout has been observed along with positive divergences on secondary oscillators along with rise in average volumes as well. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 660-665 levels for the upside target of 750-760 levels with SL below 600 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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Nifty experienced a minor recovery, finding support at the 200-day exponential moving average and closing above the psychologically significant level of 19000 levels. However, on the weekly chart, Nifty settled with a loss of over 2%, mirroring a similar trend in Banknifty. PSU bank and FMCG sectors demonstrated relative strength in comparison to the overall market, while media, metal and commodity sectors lagged behind. Analysing Nifty's derivative data revealed notable call writing at the 19,200 and 19,500 strikes. Conversely, put writers displayed activity, particularly at the 19,000 and 18,800 strike points. In Banknifty, the highest call open interest was observed at the 43,000 strike, while on the put side, it was concentrated at the 42,500 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 11.89%, while put options concluded at 12.89%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 11.73%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.22 for the week. Presently, the Nifty's rollover rate showed a jump as compared to the preceding month. In the prior month, the rollover rate stood at 76%, whereas in the current month, it has rose to 83%. The rollover rate for the November series is above the average of the past three months. On the flip side, Banknifty dropped in rollover rate of 79%, slightly in line with the average of last 3 month. As per rollover data suggested, we can expect a good momentum in Nifty whereas Banknifty can be laggard in momentum due to less rollover rate. Nifty is expected to trade in a range of 19200 and 18800 in upcoming week. The strategy of "Sell on rise" is recommended as long as Nifty trades below the 19,200 mark.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices traded down last week on account of sluggish domestic demand. Subdued physical demand is visible at prevailing levels as prices have seen a persistent downfall after touching all time high of 18076 in Jul’23. Despite witnessing downfall of 25% from the record high levels, turmeric prices are still almost double as compared to last year level of 7300. Demand is likely to remain subdued as stockists and millers are avoiding bulk buying in expectation of further fall in prices. Improved yield prospects with favorable weather for crop growth are likely to weigh on market sentiments. Reports of fall in export of turmeric in Aug’23 will also put pressure on prices. India exported about 11.3 thousand tonnes in Aug’23 as compared to 12.13 thousand tonnes of the previous year for same period. However, overall turmeric export has been higher by 16.2% Y-o-Y during time period of Apr’23-Aug’23. Turmeric prices are likely to trade with negative bias may slip towards 11500 with resistance of 13900 levels.
Jeera prices witnessed sharp downfall tracking subdued buying in spot market. Stockists have started offloading their stocks in fear of further fall in prices. Prices are falling due to reports of subdued exports amid better production prospects for upcoming season. Sowing activities are likely to start on positive note due to favorable weather condition wherein acreages are also expected to increase under jeera due to better prices realization. Jeera export dropped to 6.6 thousand tonnes in Aug’23 against the 23.5 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 71% Y-o-Y. Total export of jeera during Apr’23-Aug’23 was reported at 64.17 thousand tonnes against the 86.9 thousand tonnes of same period last year. Going forward, exports are likely to remain down that will weigh on prices. Jeera Prices are expected to find support near 41600/38000 wherein resistance is seen at 53800 levels.
Dhaniya prices are likely to trade down on sluggish buying at prevailing levels. Adequate stocks at major trading centers weighed on market sentiments. Going forward, prices will track the upcoming sowing activities, which is likely to start later in Oct. Weather condition is looking favorable for sowing that will lead to commencement of sowing activities on positive note. However, exports demand has been active and exports are expected to improve further. India exported about 6.2 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in Aug’23 against the 2.6 thousand tonnes of last year whereas overall export was reported at 81.3 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Aug’23 higher by 268% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya export rose significantly in year 2023 due to supply concerns on other producing countries. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6400-7300.
Gold prices continued to rise for the third consecutive week due to ongoing Middle East conflict, which has led investors to seek the safety of bullion. The Israel-Hamas conflict remains a significant factor influencing gold prices, with Israeli forces conducting a major ground attack in Gaza. This has sparked concerns and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold has gained approximately 9% in value since the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict earlier this month. However, the potential for higher U.S. interest rates has kept gold prices below the $2,000 mark, which was last breached in May. The U.S. dollar saw a weekly gain, and U.S. Treasury yields increased by 0.2% following strong economic growth in the third quarter. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed optimism about the economy's performance but noted that it could lead to elevated longer-dated bond yields. Investor attention is also focused on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which could provide insights into the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. In other central bank news, the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Additionally, China's gold imports via Hong Kong declined by 11% in September compared to the previous month. In terms of price levels, on COMEX, gold prices are hovering near $2,000, and a sustained break above this level could push prices to $2,040, with short-term support around $1,960. Silver is expected to follow the footsteps of gold, potentially finding support near $21.00 and encountering resistance around $24.50. Looking ahead, gold prices may continue to trade higher, with MCX Gold finding support near 59,200 and facing resistance near 62,800. Similarly, silver may trade higher, taking support near 69,000 and potentially facing resistance around 75,000.
Crude oil futures made a recovery, surpassing $83 per barrel, yet they were still register a weekly loss of approximately 5%. This decline in oil prices was attributed to diminishing concerns about a broader Middle East conflict. Analysts highlighted the ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at postponing an anticipated ground invasion of Gaza by Israeli forces. Additionally, signs of weakened demand in the United States, the world's leading oil consumer, put downward pressure on prices. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a significant drop in product supplied for both motor gasoline and distillate fuels in the previous week. Furthermore, refinery crude runs and utilization rates decreased. The stronger-than-expected economic data in the United States implied that the Federal Reserve would likely to continue its path of maintaining higher-for-longer interest rates, which in turn, impacted the outlook for oil demand negatively. The European Central Bank's decision to maintain unchanged interest rates added to the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market due to signs of economic weakness. Looking ahead, the crude oil market is expected to remain highly volatile, with a potential trading range of 6,700 to 7,400. On the flip side, U.S. natural gas futures experienced an 8% jump, surpassing $3.2 per MMBtu, recovering from a two-week low of $2.9/MMBtu observed on October 20th. This rebound was driven by a smaller-than-expected increase in gas inventories and forecasts for colder-than-anticipated weather and heightened heating demand over the next two weeks. Looking ahead, natural gas prices may continue to face upward pressure, with a potential trading range of 265 – 330 levels, making buying on dips a recommended strategy.
Base metals may trade sideways with bearish bias as persistent demand concern in top consumer China and further signs of stagnating euro zone economy offset support from economic stimulus in top metals consumer China. China has approved a 1 trillion yuan ($136.65 billion) in sovereign bond issuance to help rebuild areas hit by floods and improve urban infrastructure. Although this will provide some boost to building new homes and public infrastructure in the affected region, it is unlike a wholesome direct stimulus that has boosted Chinese demand for metals in the last two decades. Copper may trade in the range of 690-720 levels. Tight copper scrap supply, coupled with falling refined copper prices, has improved consumption of the metal, but a bearish macroeconomic outlook will continue to pressure copper prices. Global miner Anglo American lowered its 2023 production guidance for copper on curtailments at its Chilean operations, even as its output of the metal rose 42% in the third quarter. Zinc may trade in the range of 210-230 levels. The global zinc market surplus widened to 22,000 metric tons in August from 2,900 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Lead can move in the range of 180-190 levels. The global lead market recorded a surplus of 71,000 tons in the first eight months of 2023, compared with a deficit of 141,000 tons in the year-ago period, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed. Aluminium can trade in the range of 195-215 levels. Steel long (Nov) is likely to trade in the range of 43000-46000 levels; and sell on rise should be the strategy.
Cotton prices are likely to trade down with surging arrival pressure in the market. Fresh arrivals have increased in northern part of India and are likely to pick up in central region with advancement of harvesting activities. Weather condition is favorable for harvesting that will boost supplies of new crop in the market. Losses in cotton are likely to be limited in wake of improving demand prospects. Export demand and winter season demand are likely to increase in coming months that will reflect as fresh buying for cotton. USDA has reduced its estimates for world cotton ending stocks from 89.96 million bales to 79.92 million bales in its latest estimates that will also cap the losses in prices. Cotton MCX Nov prices are likely to trade in the range of 57000-61500 level. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1560-1670 level. Similarly, cotton seed oil cake (Cocud) will trade down with increased availability of alternative meals in the market. Improved supply prospects will weigh on prices. Cocud prices are expected to slip towards support of 2640 in coming days whereas resistance is 2860.
Guar seed Nov futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on increased demand at physical market. Stockists are showing buying interest at prevailing levels in the wake of weaker production estimates. However, reports of fall in export of guar gum will cap the gains. Guar gum export dropped by 16% M-o-M in Aug’23 to near 17 thousand tonnes due to limited buying by USA. However, exports are expected to improve with recent gains in crude oil prices driven by ongoing geopolitical tension among gulf countries has sparked the hope of rise in drilling activities in US that will lead to rise in export demand of guar gum . Lower production and expectation of rise in seasonal demand of gum in Oct-Dec is likely to help prices to trade on positive note. Guar seed prices are likely to honor the support of 5650 and expected to move up towards the resistance of 6250 levels. Gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11000-13600 levels.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade sideways to down due to demand concerns. Export demand of menthol has been subdued that prompted stockiest to stay away from bulk buying. India exported about 1.5 thousand tonnes of menthol is July’23 as compared to 1.9 thousand tonnes of previous year. Overall export of menthol was reported at 4.2 thousand tonnes during the period of Apr-Jul’23 against the 5.2 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, supplies are also down that may trigger short cover any time at futures platform. Mentha oil Nov prices are likely to find support near 870 and resistance can be seen at 945 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade down due to muted domestic demand. Improved crop condition in Gujarat and higher production prospects supported by rise in area under castor seed in year 2023 is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Castor seed Nov prices are likely to trade in range of 5830-6200 levels.
It closed at Rs. 291.90 on 26th Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.286.71. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.930. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.280 for a target of Rs. 310 with the stop loss of 265.
It closed at Rs. 220.15 on 26th Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.221.80. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.806. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.225 for a target of Rs. 215 with the stop loss of 230.
It closed at Rs.5872.00 on 26th Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 5857.92. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.489. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs. 5800 for a target of Rs. 6100 with the stop loss of 5650.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
In the week gone by, CRB remained trapped in a narrow trading range but managed to close above the 320 level. Dollar Index ended the week on an upward trajectory. 10-year US Treasury Yields also saw an increase in their closing values. Gold, on the flip side, experienced its third consecutive week of gains as investors continued to seek it as a safe haven, partly due to a shift of funds from equities and other riskier assets. Israeli forces executed their biggest ground attack in Gaza in their 20-day-old war with Hamas overnight as anger grew in the Arab world over Israel’s unrelenting airstrikes on the besieged Palestinian territory. It added war premium in gold, and MCX gold closed near 61300 levels. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, as expected on Thursday, snapping a 15-month streak of rate hikes. Silver's rally paused, largely influenced by a stall in the industrial metals market. Natural gas prices remained range-bound with minimal upside movement. Crude oil prices declined from their recent highs. Natural Gas prices jump to $3.44 with tension building after a small incursion into Gaza by Israel earlier this Thursday. Among base metals, copper and lead saw losses, while aluminum and zinc closed the week with gains. China has approved a 1 trillion yuan ($136.65 billion) in sovereign bond issuance to help rebuild areas hit by floods and improve urban infrastructure, which briefly lifted metals prices. Although this will provide some boost to building new homes and public infrastructure in the affected region, it is unlike a wholesome direct stimulus that has boosted Chinese demand for metals in the last two decades.
In the agricultural sector, castor continued to face downward pressure with no relief in sight, however, shrinking supplies of castor seed and improved crush margin of millers limited the downside. Cotton oilseed cake futures made a marginal recovery. Kapas witnessed some buying at lower price levels. Guarseed and guar gum futures took a breather after a three-week rise. Arrivals of new crop have started picking up but still lower as compared to last year. Jeera garnered attention with a significant seven-week decline, dropping from its high of 63695 to a low below 47500 levels. Jeera prices plummeted as upcoming sowing of jeera is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition. Adequate soil moisture and favorable weather condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities. Moreover, sluggish export demand will also put pressure on prices. Dhaniya futures experienced a decline due to lackluster trading in the spot market amid adequate supplies in the market. Millers preferred need based buying in anticipation of further fall in prices whereas stockists are releasing stocks on every jump in prices. Mentha prices were in range. Overall export of menthol was reported at 4.2 thousand tonnes during the period of Apr-Jul’23 against the 5.2 thousand tonnes of previous year.
As the world is facing an uncertain time of food crisis due to global shocks such as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and elsewhere, market volatility from rising food and energy prices, and extreme weather caused by climate change, our farmers are proving most resilient with their hard work and have given us enough protection from the food crisis and have enabled us to supply food stocks to feed the world.
As per Final Estimates for 2022-23, total Food grain production in the country is estimated at record 329.69 million tonnes, which is higher by 14.07 million tonnes than the production of foodgrains of 315.62 million tonnes achieved during 2021-22. Further, the production during 2022-23 is higher by 30.87 million tonnes than the previous five years’ (2017-18 to 2021-22) average production of foodgrains.
Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Shri Narendra Singh Tomar has said on the record production of food grains that our farmer are continuously working hard, while agricultural scientists and institutions are also doing very good work, along with this Under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, the Ministry of Agriculture is smoothly implementing the schemes and programs, thus everyone's efforts are reflecting better results in the agriculture sector including record food grains production.
As per Final Estimates, the estimated production of major crops during 2022- 23 is as under:
Official data showed thatfood grain output has consistently grown overthe last decade from 257.1 million tonne in 2012-13 to 329.69 million tonne in 2022-23.
Total production of Rice during 2022-23 is estimated at record 135.75 million tonnes. It is higher by 6.28 million tonnes than previous year’s Rice production of 129.47 million tonnes and by 15.36 million tonnes than the last five years’ average production of 120.39 million tonnes.
Production of Wheat during 2022-23 is estimated at record 110.55 million tonnes. It is higher by 2.81 Million tonnes than previous year’s wheat production of 107.74 million tonnes and by 4.82 million tonnes than the average wheat production of 105.73 million tonnes.
Production of Nutri / Coarse Cereals estimated at 57.32 million tonnes, which is higher by 6.22 million tonnes than the production of 51.10 million tonnes achieved during 2021-22. Further, it is also higher by 9.28 million tonnes than the average production. Production of Shree Anna is estimated at 17.32 million tonnes.
Total Pulses production during 2022-23 is estimated at 26.06 million tonnes which is higher by 1.40 million tonnes than the last five years’ average pulses production of 24.66 million tonnes. Total Oilseeds production in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 41.35 million tonnes which is higher by 3.39 million tonnes than the oilseed production during 2021-22. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2022-23 is higher by 7.33 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 34.02 million tonnes.
Total production of Sugarcane in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at 490.53 million tonnes. The production of sugarcane during 2022-23 is higher by 51.11 million tonnes than the previous year sugarcane production of 439.42 million tonnes.
Production of Cotton is estimated at 33.66 million bales (of 170 kg each) is higher by 2.54 million bales than the previous year’s cotton production. Production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at 9.39 million bales (of 180 kg each).
The dollar index has been steadily rising and consolidating within the range of 105.30 - 107 over the pastfew weeks. The 105.00-105.30 range has proven to be a strong support zone, indicating a positive shortterm outlook for the dollar index. At higher levels, resistance is seen between 106.80 and 107. However, due to the overall upward trend and the dollar's strength, breaking through this resistance is expected. A breach above 107.00 could reignite the dollar index's upward momentum in the shortterm. Recent economic data suggests the US economy's resilience, with a robust 4.9% growth rate in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and significant increases in durable goods orders. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady interest rates, supporting the view of elevated rates for an extended period. The strength of the dollar is also influenced by the euro's weakness, linked to a subdued growth outlook in the Eurozone and the European Central Bank's completed tightening cycle.In the USD/INR currency pair, a recent correction from a record high near 83.40 levels found solid support around 83.00. The pair is expected to remain bullish in the near term, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervening to control upward volatility. The RBI's actions are likely to prevent significant moves above 83.60 in the near future, and the USD/INR pair is expected to consolidate within the range of 83.00 to 83.60 with a bullish bias. This consolidation reflects confidence in the pair's upward trend.
USDINR (NOV) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.32. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.24 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.8 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.6 levels.
One can buy near 83 for the target of 83.6 with the stop loss of 82.75
GBPINR (NOV) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 101.7. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.88 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 100.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 102 levels.
One can buy near 100.75 for the target of 101.75 with the stop loss of 100.25
EURINR (NOV) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 88.35. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.16 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 87.45 levels, while resistance is expected near 88.75 levels.
One can sell near 88.3 for the target of 87.3 with the stop loss of 88.8
JPYINR (NOV) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 56.31. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 27.37 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55 levels, while resistance is expected near 56.3 levels.
One can sell near 56 for the target of 55 with the stop loss of 56.5
(2.5/5)
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The objects of the Offer are to (i) achieve the benefits of
listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges; and
(ii) carry out the Offer for Sale of up to [●] Equity Shares
aggregating up to Rs.1900 Crore by the Selling
Shareholders. Further, the Company expects that the
proposed listing of its Equity Shares will enhance its
visibility.
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.648, EPS and P/E based on TTM are Rs.14.22 and 45.56 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 617, P/E multiple is 43.38. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.648, book value and P/B of FY23 are Rs. 51.96 and 12.47 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 617 P/B multiple is 11.88. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital.
Cello World is a famous Indian consumer product company mainly dealing in three categories such as writing instruments and stationery, molded furniture, consumer housewares and related products. Cello World has 13 manufacturing units situated in 5 different locations in India. The company also aims to set up a glass manufacturing unit in Rajasthan with European made machinery to enable efficient productivity and enhanced manufacturing capacity. As of March 31, 2023, the company has 15,841 stock-keeping units ("SKU") across all product ranges. The company's national sales distribution team comprises of 683 members.
Well-established brand name and strong market positions: Cello World’s strong market positions in the consumer products industry segment are a reflection of its vast experience, continuous product development and consumer understanding. The brand “Cello” was awarded as one of the most trusted brands of India in 2021 by Commerzify. To enhance brand awareness and strengthen brand recall for the brands and sub-brands that it uses, it utilises a diverse array of promotional and marketing efforts, including in-shop displays, merchandising, advertisements in print and social media, retail branding and product branding.
Diversified product portfolio across price points catering to diverse consumer requirements: As of June 30, 2023, it offered 15,891 SKUs across its product categories. It offers an extensive product range across its three product categories. Cello World has a diverse range of products across different product categories, types of material and price points, which enables it to serve as a “one-stop-shop”, with consumers across all income levels purchasing its products. Cello World has the most diversified product portfolio among its peers, with products in the glassware, opalware, melamine and porcelain categories.
Strong historical financial results: Cello World has been continuously growing its business through increase in sales, and the expansion of brand portfolio, product offerings and distribution network. Cello World’s operational efficiencies and supply chain network has resulted in better control of expenses and thereby resulted in an increase in its profit after tax. Its revenue from operations increased, from Rs.1049.45 Crore in the Financial Year 2021, to Rs.1359.18 Crore in the Financial Year 2022 and Rs.1796.7 Crore in the Financial Year 2023, at a CAGR of 30.84%. Its revenue from operations was Rs.432.61 Crore for the three months ended June 30, 2022 and Rs.471.78 Crore for the three months ended June 30, 2023.
Continued innovation to grow wallet share and expand consumer base: Cello World intends to utilise its innovation capabilities to expand its existing product portfolio and develop new range of products across its product categories. In particular, Cello World aims to expand its product portfolio in its consumer houseware product category, by focusing on introducing new range of products in the kitchenware, porcelain, appliances, cookware, glassware, writing instruments, and stationery spaces.
Expanding distribution network: Cello World seeks to enhance its addressable market by expanding its sales and distribution network of distributors, sub-distributors and retailers across India.
Scale up branding, promotional and digital activities: While the “Cello” brand is well established and enjoys strong brand recall among consumers in India, it intends to continue to enhance brand awareness and strengthen brand recall for the newer brands, including in particular the “Kleeno” and “Puro” sub-brands (under the “Cello” brand), by continuing to focus on its branding and promotional activities going forward.
With a presence in consumer houseware, writing instruments & stationery, and moulded furniture & allied products, and consumer glassware categories, the firm offered 15,891 stock-keeping units (SKUs) across its product categories as of June 2023. Around 80 percent of its revenue comes from the in-house manufacturing operations, and the remaining (mainly steel and glassware products) are made by third-party contract manufacturers. However, the company will not receive any proceeds from the offer.
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